28
Oct
Wrap – Week Ended 10/28/11
Well that was more like it. Energy in general remains undervalued despite the run and those that think that some of our names, being up 50% in the last month, are overheated, have not been paying attention to the price erosion over the summer or the fundamentals of the names themselves. But that's OK, let the "generalists" be confused and late to the party as usual. We can lighten into their optimism when the charts are suddenly more obvious.
In Monday's post please look for:
A) the natural gas slide show with production data for the month of September ... once again, little to nothing for bulls to dine on in the data,
B) the wrap of energy earnings for Q311 week 2,
C) the earnings calendar for the coming week,
D) a few operational updates from SSN and some other smaller names
and later in week look for a revised E&P Catalyst List and on Tuesday, Performance of the ZLT portfolios through the first 10 months of the year.
Have a great weekend,
Thanks and Best,
Z
Areas of Interest..
October 29th, 2011 at 11:06 amTPLM Pull Back under 5.75
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite
WLL Pullback under 48.75
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite_2
OAS Pullback under 30.50
October 29th, 2011 at 11:06 amhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite_3
GDP 16.50
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite_4
NOG 24, 23.25, 22.50
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite_5
Thanks for the levels Zorg.
October 29th, 2011 at 11:42 amGood graphs on Chinese growth/use of energy, good overall summary of markets:
https://mail.google.com/mail/?hl=en&tab=wm#inbox/1334d88d469d04d2
October 29th, 2011 at 12:06 pm#4-better link-more direct
http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/index.cfm?&
October 29th, 2011 at 12:12 pmHey guys, what is the trick to see the right side of the graphs if they appear clipped, I always forget that one.
October 30th, 2011 at 9:08 amTomorrow’s post:
Wrap of energy earnings week II,
look ahead at week III,
the natural gas supply slide show with August data
and more earnings reviews
October 30th, 2011 at 10:00 am#6-not sure if this is the question: if right of graphs cut off, hold CTRL and hit –
October 30th, 2011 at 11:30 amto reverse, CTRL and +
re 8 – thanks very much, that’s it for my browser.
October 30th, 2011 at 12:15 pmI just double click my mouse…..on firefox
October 30th, 2011 at 12:28 pmThank you DrL
October 30th, 2011 at 12:33 pmRE 6: Try this if you are using Chrome on Windows:
Use the mouse wheel and hold he CTRL key. It zooms the page in and out. Very convenient. Hope that helps.
October 30th, 2011 at 2:30 pmz – reduce your zoom per cent mine is at lower right hand corner of screen
October 30th, 2011 at 3:28 pmRe 12/13 – thanks very much.
Futures pretty flat early, crude holding the 93.50 level. Busy week from an ecodata perspective, ISM, nfpayrolls, plus the G20 rumor mill.
October 30th, 2011 at 4:35 pmS&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..Friday close ..S&P Futs 1282.25 Notes To Myself.
Immediate support/resistance at 1270-75/1294.50. Major acceptance/congestion and upside target at 1303. 1241.50 is support/gap close.
Additional support at 1229.75 and 1217.
Numerous breadth, momentum and volatility studies coupled with stiff overhead below 1303 have me
looking for the start of consolidation or short term pullback above 1241.50.
CLVN= Potential Rejecton Area – CHVN = Acceptance/Congestion
1303 Major Acceptance/Congestion
1294 Resistance, CLVN
1270-75 Support, wide/Deep CLVN
1266 Acceptance, CHVN, RTH and O/N VPOCs 10/27
1241.50 Support, CLVN, Gap Close
1230 Minor Support, CLVN
1217 Support, CLVN
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/30/ES_Composite
October 30th, 2011 at 6:13 pmCrude…Short term volume trend entended into a thick band of congestion/acceptance, trading above both long term and short term acceptance.
October 30th, 2011 at 6:38 pmLooking for choppy consolidation and possible retest of 88.50 with far support at 84.50
95 Resistance
88.50 Suppport
86 Acceptance
84.50 Support
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/30/Crude_Composite
XLE… XLE broke higher through a very low volume 73 on Thursday and began to consolidate below dense overhead. Short term volume trend is extended and I expect a consolidation/pullback to 71 +- .50. Will watch for volume to come in at support.
73 Resistance
70.50 support
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/30/Stock_Composite_2
October 30th, 2011 at 6:53 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/30/Stock_Composite_2
Thanks much Zorg
October 30th, 2011 at 7:39 pmSSN on the tape with the now weekly update
Defender well ready for fraccing on Nov 7
Spirit of America – failed in first side track effort, trying again.
Australia II (Montana Bakken test) – pad complete, spudder rig setting surface casing, main rig arrives Nov 2
Also pre lim numbers on the quarter with 3Q oil production up 18% and gas up 4%.
October 30th, 2011 at 8:08 pm$USD Futs put in a weekly DeMark exhaustion buy signal on Friday. Wouldn’t take much to flip the volume trends to positive, even with last weeks sell off.
October 30th, 2011 at 9:20 pmSeeing signs of reversal tonight.. Still early but worth watching…
Major sign of a reversal right now. Welcome back Zorg.
October 30th, 2011 at 9:37 pmthanks..
Peter Brandt just threw up a chart of the USD/JPY cross as Japan intervenes
http://chart.ly/nc9c435
October 30th, 2011 at 9:46 pmJapan in the forex market knocking the yen down and the USD and euro up. Uncool for US exports.
October 30th, 2011 at 10:24 pmYep… as expected. Next up to bat in The Bear Trap Game = Italy. And it’s a much more important country than little ol’ Greece.
TED still moving wider (almost +43 bps now). Non-US money-center banks (ie European) banks afraid of lending to other banks. No one knows what the other banks holds… but they are worried it’s worse than what they hold. The FEAR trade is ON today.
IG opening +4 1/2 bps wider.
Happy Halloween.
October 31st, 2011 at 6:27 amS&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..10/31 8:30am ..S&P Futs 1266.75 Notes To Myself. A sustained break below 1268.50 would suggest a gap close to 1241.50 is probable..
Immediate resistance at 1270.50. 1241.50 is support/gap close.
Additional support at 1229.75 and 1217.
Looking for consolidation/short term pullback above 1241.50.
CLVN= Potential Rejecton Area – CHVN = Acceptance/Congestion
1303 Major Acceptance/Congestion
1294 Resistance, CLVN
1270-75 Resistance, Wide/Deep CLVN
1241.50 Support, CLVN, Gap Close
1230 Minor Support, CLVN
1217 Support, CLVN
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/24/ES_Composite
October 31st, 2011 at 7:34 amcorrection..above should have read …
October 31st, 2011 at 7:35 amA sustained break below 1268.50 would suggest a gap close to 1241.50 is probable
sssh 1266.50
October 31st, 2011 at 7:36 ammy mind is still on vacation..