15
Jan

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Market mulls $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus plan.
  • MLK day is Monday. We wish you a peaceful 3 day weekend.

Housekeeping Watch:  Are we using the correct email for you?  If you're not getting ZBLAST's or are getting them at the wrong address contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com

In today's post please find:

  • the natural gas review (slightly bigger than we expected; much bigger withdrawal expected next week),
  • a number of SPAC comment,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Current Account Deficit at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, few care, but last month was -$171 B),
  • We get leading economic indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.7%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - SPAC comments (including NGA and ACTC), OII
  5. Odds & Ends

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14
Jan

Thursday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Energy eyes on OPEC monthly and natural gas storage/weather. 
    • The OPEC monthly as expected saw few changes with no change in the 2021 GDP forecast, no big shifts in supply nor demand and no change in the "Call on OPEC" for 2020 or 2021 (see our OPEC dashboard below).
  • Market eyes on we assume D.C. stuff.

Housekeeping Watch: 

  • Are we using the correct email for you?  If you're not getting ZBLAST's or are getting them at the wrong address contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com
  • Is something confusing or otherwise unclear?  We use A LOT of acronyms and abbreviations.  Check out Z's Dictionary at left or feel free to ask in comments or at the email address above. 

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (neutral report),
  • the natural gas preview,
  • comments on NEX, 
  • and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 800,000; last read was 787,000),
  • We get import prices at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.7%, last read was 0.1%).
  • We get speeches from a number of Fed heads today (Rosengren, Bostic, Powell, and Kaplan),
  • We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review - OPEC Monthly Dashboard
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - NEX, GOEV, VWDRY
  5. Odds & Ends

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13
Jan

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: 

  • Energy eyes on:
    • the OPEC Monthly tomorrow (we don't expect a large further reduction in the 2021 call on OPEC) and
    • IEA's monthly on Friday (expect a little more cautious stand on demand for 1H21 with a good chance of that being largely just shifted into 3Q21).
  • Market eyes still on goings on in D.C. and Covid but only sort of. We do get a lot of Fed head speeches tomorrow but that should be largely a non event.
  • Our eyes on natural gas (not short term though)
  • And on CES2021 outcomes and the increased news flow coming from the fuel cell names (see Holdings Watch below).

Housekeeping Watch: 

  • If you are not receiving ZBLAST trade notifications at the proper email address please let us know at zman@zmansenergybrain.com
  • The request line is open. 

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview,
  • EIA STEO (non even this year, lighter growth than we expected them to show next).
  • the natural gas inventory preview (early consensus is flat with prior week; expect a much bigger withdrawal next week)
  • comments on a new name,
  • comments on GOEV,
  • comments on BLDP,
  • fuel cell products table,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 0.4%, last read 0.2%; Core CPI at 0.1%, last read 0.2%),
  • We get Beige Book at 2 pm EST,
  • We get the federal budget at 2 pm EST (F = -$150 mm, last read was -$13 B),
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch - new highs list
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - a new name, GOEV, BLDP, fuel cell table,
  4. Odds & Ends

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12
Jan

Tuesday Morning – AR

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Market eyes sort-of-maybe on D.C. machinations (can't really tell the market cares much),
  • Covid cases remain high leading to extended re-lockdowns in Europe, Asia.  In the U.S. vaccinations are accelerating and the vaccinated count is near 9 mm. 
  • Energy eyes on EIA STEO today (and we would not be surprised to see the 2021 U.S. oil production forecast rise a bit given the way their model works) and then OPEC and IEA later in the week.

Housekeeping Watch:  If you are not getting ZBLAST Trade Notifications where you want them please send us the correct email address at zman@zmansenergybrain.com

In today's post please find:

  • the early read on oil inventories,
  • the very early read on natural gas inventories (forming up in line with our thoughts from last Friday's post ... slightly smaller than the prior week),
  • comments and an updated cheat sheet for AR, 
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get NFIB at 6 am EST (no forecast, last read was 101.4),
  • We get job openings at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 6.7 mm).
  • We get the EIA STEO at 12 pm EST today.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - oil region completions vs oil production, expected renewables capacity growth in 2021
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – AR, GOEV
  4. Odds & Ends

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11
Jan

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Energy eyes on the STEO and the OPEC and IEA monthlies this week. We expect some shuffling of the quarters for demand forecasts with reductions to 1Q and potentially 2Q followed by a bumped up 2H21. We don't expect a significant further reduction in Call on OPEC for 2021. 
  • Market eyes on D.C. news items that are out of normal range,
  • Market eyes may be somewhat Covid focused as vaccination counts begin to move up. Travel remains subdued but "everyone" is thinking "go big, leave home" regarding summer 2021.

In today's post please find:

  • The Week That Was,
  • The Five Things,
  • Spuds and pops,
  • Generation share,
  • ---
  • and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data scheduled. 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - NFIB small business, job openings, EIA STEO, 
  • Wednesday - CPI, Beige Book, federal budget, 
  • Thursday - Initial jobless claims, import price index, OPEC Monthly,
  • Friday - Retail sales, PPI, Empire state, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, business index. IEA Monthly. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - spuds and pops (oily and gassy plays), gas-fired generation (continues to take generation share)
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Four Things, AR, PSAC (Faraday)
  5. Odds & Ends

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