06
Dec

Monday Morning

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In today's post please find:

  • The Week That Was,
  • The Five Things,
  • and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data. 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Trade deficit, productivity revision, unit labor costs, consumer credit, 
  • Wednesday - Job openings and quits, EIA Oil Inventories, 
  • Thursday - Jobless Claims, wholesale inventories, EIA Natural Gas Storage,
  • Friday - CPI, consumer sentiment, federal budget.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, VWDRY, COP
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

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05
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 12/03/21

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Mixed bag of a week with OPEC+ opting to carry on at the 0.4 mm bopd per month de-curtailment rate, surprising most watchers including us although we thought there was an outside chance they would move to a 0.2 mm bopd increase.

  • At the time of the announcement we noted this as a bullish event. It was muted by later in the week by the revelation of further spread of Omicron.
  • Omicron is now seen as a Covid variant that is potential more transmissible but so far, as noted by the WHO, not tied to any deaths.
  • So we've got the long anticipated announcement of a coordinated multi-national SPR release and OPEC+ checked off the oil price concerns list.
  • This leaves better understanding of Omicron and the Iran JCPOA negotiations as items that the market still will have to consider into year end.
    • If Omicron replaces Delta as the dominant strain it may not be a bad thing. And OPEC+, in a rare move, left the meeting unclosed to watch events unfold.
    • As to Iran, the negotiations were suspended on Friday with Europe saying Iran's demands are too high and that the country has put its nuclear program on a faster track. Both items will need to be addressed before either an interim or restarted JCPOA are likely to be agreed upon.

Holdings Watch:

  • We added to one of large oily upstream positions.
  • We sold the rest of our ENPH position, as per "Sold the second half of our ENPH position at average $245, up 63% to our remaining average cost. Profit protection as noted with the prior sale. We will look to reload this much liked name lower."
  • We added to a niche EV player position.
  • The Blotter is updated. 

Noteworthy numbers this week:

  • Watch the oil rig count begin to plateau or at least grow less slowly.  We've moved from a period of DUC burn to stable state, logistically needed DUCs for the current spread.
  • Frac spread rate of increase should as well.
  • Our view is that the move in the oil price strip is a bit overdone to the down side now, this after months of saying it was ahead of itself. But, we are in the heart of 2022 planning season and the events of the last two weeks should reinforce the concept of maintenance for most oily upstream U.S. names.
  • CFTC now back below 6x long to short. We view levels above 6x as often leading to outsized moves to the downside on even modest news.

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber mailbag section of the Monday post.

Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

Have a good weekend,

Z.

 


03
Dec

T.G.I.F.

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Housekeeping Watch:  Are we using the correct email for you?  If you're not getting ZBLAST's or are getting them at the wrong address contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com

In today's post please find:

  • comments on the OPEC+ decision,
  • the natural gas review (in line storage withdrawal; next week we are looking for a smaller withdrawal (but still a withdrawal) next week),
  • post quarter and debt offering comments on ARRY,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 am EST (F = 573,000, last month was 531,000),
  • We get the unemployment rate at 8:30 am EST (F = 4.5%, last read was 4.6%),
  • We get average hourly earnings at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.4%, last read was 0.4%),
  • We get ISM Services at 10 am EST (F = 65.0%, last read was 66.7%),
  • We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = 0.4%, last read was 0.2%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - LNG
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - ARRY, HPK, TPIC
  5. Odds & Ends

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02
Dec

Thursday Morning – OPEC+

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In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (negative side of neutral but only barely, uptick in throughput highly likely next few weeks as well as a rebound in oil exports; and all pretty moot in front of OPEC+ today),
  • the natural gas preview (larger than average withdrawal expected this week before weather saps the storage pull next week),
  • comments on the IEA,
  • comments on GOEV,
  • and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 240,000, last read was 199,000),
  • We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - IEA, GOEV
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


01
Dec

Wednesday Morning

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In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview (benign report expected; matters little in front of OPEC+ tomorrow),
  • the natural gas inventory preview (big draw expected; followed by a little one next week),
  • comments on a requested off the beaten path name. If you have requests the request line is open,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get ADP employment at 8:15 am EST (F =506,000, last read was 571,000),
  • We get ISM manufacturing at 10 am EST (F = 61.1%, last read was 60.8%),
  • We get construction spending at 10 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was -0.5%),
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST,
  • We get the Beige Book at 2 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - EFLVF, SLB, ARRY
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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