09
Jul

Thursday Morning – More Wind

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • All eyes on jobless claims today to make sure we don't see an uptick (initial claims have been grinding lower for weeks now),
  • Covid-19.  We're seeing more countries and U.S. states rollback re-openings.
    • In the U.S. new case highs have been set almost daily this week and our sense is that death rates are going to move back up soon making comments of "but mortality rates are lower" short lived so to speak.
    • I personally see a lot of wishful thinking out there but maybe I read and listen to the wrong stuff.
    • Our further sense would be that this will bring more rollbacks and the market may take note of that.
    • We're also noting an increase in cases reported at camps, churches, and sports teams. This would not seem to bode well for students returning to indoor classes in the fall. Not a comment on whether they should or shouldn't go to school (our interns really need to get out of the office) but we see the potential for big headlines as kids go to school, only to see rapid outbreaks and reclosures there as well.
  • In energyland:
    • Renewables have continued to gather pace this week and the percent of green/renewables has never been higher in the ZLT (> 55%),
    • Please see our comments on product demand and inventory level concerns in the oil inventory slide show below.
    • The increasing cases and resulting rollbacks do little to buoy oil space sentiment.
  • Politics:  Biden set to speak today as he rolls out his economic plans. May or may not have energy space implications on this first week of what's expected to be a several week economic plank rollout.  He's been working with Sanders so if not today regarding those implications then soon.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review,
  • the natural gas preview (smallish injection expected, roughly half the size of the one from two reports back),
  • comments on BWEN,
  • comments on VWDRY,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.40 mm, last read was 1.43 mm),
  • We get wholesale inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.3%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - BWEN, VWDRY
  5. Odds & Ends - TPIC

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


08
Jul

Wednesday Morning – CXO

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Covid-19 re-closure concerns sapped the market yesterday,
  • New York reverse quarantined three more states yesterday bringing the total to 19 states,
  • In a bit of better news a 15 minute Covid test was approved.
  • Energy eyes are inventories today and while we and a few others suspect a larger than expected crude build is at hand we are also looking for better news on the products fronts.
  • We were actually green yesterday, helped by the renewables segment of the portfolio (currently 55% of assets due to recent runs; see the updated Positions link in the Holdings Watch section below or at upper left on the site.

 

Housekeeping Watch: 

  • A bored Z is a terrible thing to waste. If you have questions we may have answers. There are no dumb questions here.
  • Also, if you are new to the site or just not getting email at the right address please email us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com to let us know which email you would like us to use for future communication.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview,
  • the natural gas inventory preview (consensus now down below 5 year average and well below year ago and about half of the injection from two weeks ago),
  • CXO comments and a cheat sheet,
  • MGY quick comments,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.
  • We get consumer credit at 3 pm EST (no forecast, last read was -$69 B)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - CXO, MGY
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


07
Jul

Tuesday Morning – WKHS

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • EU lowers GDP assumption.
  • Energy eyes on the EIA STEO due out later today and API after the close.

In today's post please find:

  • the early read on oil inventories,
  • the very early read on natural gas inventories,
  • comments and a cheat sheet update,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get job openings at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 5 mm)
  • We get the EIA July STEO at 12 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  WKHS, JKS, RUN, VSLR
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


06
Jul

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Strong start to the quarter last week with the ZLT up 7+%
  • We are now 50% renewables,
  • Market eyes obviously on Covid and any re-closings but also on demand and upcoming 2Q20 earnings. There is little clarity as to the strength of 2Q earnings regardless of what industry you pick and the expectation bar has been set at a historic low.
    • Cases in the U.S. dipped over the weekend but that's likely the weekend effect,
    • More states and large populations centers are stressing mask usage and closing bars which is in our view a good idea (mask up and get rolling).
  • Buffet bought Dominion's natural gas assets (storage and transmission assets) over the weekend and Dominion and Duke subsequently announced the cancellation of the long delayed Atlantic Coast Pipeline project.

In today's post please find:

  • The Week That Was,
  • The Five Things (please note the 4th bullet there has some additional thoughts),
  • and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get ISM nonmanufacturing at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 45.4%)

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - EIA July STEO, job openings,
  • Wednesday - consumer credit,
  • Thursday - jobless claims, wholesale inventories,
  • Friday - PPI

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, BLDP, JKS
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


04
Jul

Wrap – Week Ended 7/3/20

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Solid week last week with the ZLT up a bit over 7%.

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The Blotter is updated.

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

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Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

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