11
Dec

Wednesday Morning – OPEC, LBRT

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the oil inventory preview (API was fairly bearish looking as weekly numbers go), some interesting graphs on the EIA STEO data released yesterday (EIA is back to reducing the forecast again), the natural gas inventory preview, the OPEC Monthly review (basically no change from last month), comments and a cheat sheet update for pressure pumper LBRT, comments on the CVX writedown, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 0.4%),
  • We get the federal budget at 2 pm EST (no forecast, last month was -$205 B),
  • We get the FOMC announcement (no change expected), followed by the Powell conference.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews, STEO graphs, OPEC table update
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - LBRT, CVX
  4. Odds & Ends

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10
Dec

Tuesday Morning – Debt Stats, LPI, MR

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Market Sentiment Watch: Futures fall on word of a delay of deal in China as USMCA takes front seat.   In today's post please find the early read on oil inventories, the early read on natural gas inventories, comments on gassy player debt levels, comments on LPI Z4 upside targets with a new cheat sheet (note a new small, inexpensive bolt on was announced last night and is outlined near the bottom of the cheat sheet), comments on MR Z4 upside targets with a new cheat sheet, comments on another big order for Vestas, and some other odds and ends.  We get the OPEC Monthly tomorrow (expect little change to 2020 demand (no further real degradation) and a modest reduction in non OPEC supply).

Ecodata Watch:

  • The NFIB small business index jumped to 104.7 vs 102.4 last month,
  • We get the Productivity revision at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.3%),
  • We get the Unit Labor Costs revision at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 3.6%),
  • We get the EIA STEO at 12 pm EST. We think EIA should reduce their 4Q19 and 2020 U.S. oil production growth rates.  We thought that last month too and they did not.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch

  2. Commodity Watch

  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Myth Killing - part 1, LPI, MR, VWDRY

  4. Odds & Ends

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09
Dec

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Another busy week for energy news with all three big reporting agencies out with monthlies this week in the wake of the OPEC meetings. Oil is giving back some of Friday's gains on weaker than expected China exports today (and apparently ignoring all time record China oil imports data out over the weekend). In today's post please find The Week That Was, The 5 Things,  and some other odds and ends.  In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data scheduled.

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - NFIB, productivity revision, unit labor costs revision, EIA STEO,
  • Wednesday - CPI, federal budget, FOMC, Powell conference, OPEC MOMR,
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, PPI, IEA Monthly
  • Friday - Retail sales, import prices, business inventories

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, VWDRY, AR
  5. Odds & Ends

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07
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 12/6/19

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Cyber week savings continue. Inquire at zman@zmansenergybrain.com

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The Positions page and Blotter are updated.

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

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06
Dec

Friday Morning – OPEC, NFP, VNOM

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Market Sentiment Watch: Waiting on OPEC+.  And Payrolls.  In today's post please find the the natural gas review (smaller than expected withdrawal, next week we expect a significantly larger withdrawal helped by record net U.S. exports and better heating related demand), an updated detailed portfolio table, a VNOM cheat sheet and mini-model update, another big order for VWDRY, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 am EST (F = 180,000, last read was 128,000),
  • We get unemployment at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.6%, last read was 3.6%),
  • We get average hourly earnings at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.2%),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 96.9, last read was 96.8),
  • We get wholesale inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.4%),
  • We get consumer credit at 3 pm EST (no forecast, last read was $9 B).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - VNOM, VWDRY
  5. Odds & Ends

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