21
Feb

Thursday Morning – WPX and more

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market can focus on the EU and China as Fed becomes more patient and less of a concern.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview (Street looking for a bigger number than we are), the oil inventory preview (API pointed to products dropping, especially gasoline, a trend we expect to see more of near term, along with modest to large builds in crude for the next few weeks), comments on the WPX quarter (beat on volumes, miss on prices, but Delaware diffs are best in show), comments on a number of unowned names of interest quarters, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 229,000, last read was 239,000),
  • We get durable goods at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.4%, last read was 0.7%), 
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 17.0), 
  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 4.99 mm, last read wsa 4.99 mm),
  • We get leading indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.1%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - WPX, SM, XOG, PE 
  4. Odds & Ends

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20
Feb

Wednesday Morning – FANG, CXO, PES

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the oil inventory preview (we don't get EIA figures until Thursday due to the holiday), the natural gas inventory preview, comments on the FANG quarter, comments on the CXO quarter, brief follow up comments and an updated cheat sheet for PES, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing starts at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, delayed),
  • We get building permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, delayed),
  • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – FANG, CXO, PES, this week's energy earnings calendar
  4. Odds & Ends

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19
Feb

Tuesday Morning – PES, CLR

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market largely focused on China trade talk and U.S. data (which has been turning more mixed of late). Energy land in the heart of earnings. In today's post please find The Week That Was, the 4Q18 Energy Earnings Week 6 Calendar, comments on the PES quarter, comments on the CLR quarter, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Home builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 58).
  • We get the EIA Drilling Productivity Report around noon EST today. 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Wednesday - Housing starts, building permits, FOMC minutes, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, durable goods, core capital equipment, Philly Fed, existing home sales, leading indicators, EIA oil inventories, EIA natural gas inventories,
  • Friday - none scheduled, Chicago Booth monetary policy forum.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  4Q18 Energy Earnings Week 6 Calendar, PES, CLR
  5. Odds & Ends

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16
Feb

Wrap – Week Ended 2/15/19

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Solid week, with the ZLT up 9.9% yielding a YTD gain of 18.3%. 

 

We had earnings or other reviews of 7 names of interest and one owned name last week. Upstream names are just starting to report 4Q18 results and on the whole they are moving better post release as long as spending remains disciplined and there are not other items of concern.  In general, Capex guidance has been down more than volume guidance relative to Street thinking.  Rigs and spreads are, again in general, ebbing on decks that are mostly holding to the $50 WTI mark. 

 

The earnings calendar gets much more full this coming week.  

 

WTI has broken out of the OPEC+ meeting base level (early December) and is near the upper end of our near term expected range. We continue to model our base case at $60 and run sensitivities at $50. This week's rally came with promises of further output cuts by Saudi (and an unplanned outage there) and with dwindling volumes from Venezuela and Iran and despite two of the big 3 reporting agencies modestly trimming global oil demand forecasts and all three of them upping their view of Non OPEC supply.  Note that Mid-Cush ended the week in premium to WTI territory, a far cry from the $18 discount level reached last fall. Permians should continue to wake up from the 4Q share price hit they took. 

 

Our thoughts on wind player TPIC will be highlighted in an Editor's Pick at Seeking Alpha on Tuesday. 

 

Presidents' Day Sale! Not a subscriber?  Let's get that fixed.  Contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com for rare savings. 

 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Tuesday post or Monday if we get time. Enjoy the 3 day weekend.

Best, Z


15
Feb

T.G.I.F.

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Z4 Sentiment Watch: Part of the sentiment problem for small and mid cap E&Ps is that the same general group of analysts covering them also cover their large cap peers making it pretty easy to be jaded about promises of cash flow neutrality a few quarters out and relatively smallish free cash generation. We get that and have been working to raise the bar of what we own, as always, just a little bit more this quarter, while expanding our horizons to wind and some new, bigger names our regular pond. Stay tuned.  In today's post please find the the natural gas review (smaller than expected, bigger number next week, no change to trough-peak outlook), comments on CLR, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the import price index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -1.0%),
  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 3.9%),
  • We get industrial production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.0%, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (F 78.7%, last read was 78.7%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CLR, next week's reporting names, 
  5. Odds & Ends

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