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Sloppy, Very Sloppy.   Tax loss selling pressure far exceeding moves in the commodities. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday Post.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Liquidity and traction hard to come by in the group just yet. Oil making interesting moves as confidence starts to sort of maybe grow and newfound shorts sort of maybe start to get a little nervous.  Saudi making the right noises about production and now exports.  In today's post please find the the natural gas review (slightly light to estimates but bigger than we expected with last week's projection, our mid point spring 2019 trough deepened modestly below 1.3 Tcf (our low case rests near 1 Tcf)), comments and an updated cheat sheet for CXO, PXD says enough is enough, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

• We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1% headline, 0.2% ex auto vs 0.8% and 0.7% respectively),
• We get industrial production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.4%, last read was 0.1%),
• We get capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 78.6%, last read was 78.4%).

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h
3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
4. Stuff We Care About Today - CXO, PXD
5. Odds & Ends

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group remains in need of traction as oil prices look to find a bottom and will likely see additional tax loss selling / fund liquidations on a selective basis. In today's post please find the oil inventory review (crude drew down but less than expected on a drop in exports from the prior week's all time record high, while gasoline built less than expected with the help of a new all time high for U.S. gasoline exports, and distillates unexpectedly fell on high demand ... all in all, a positive report), the natural gas preview, an updated cheat sheet for CDEV, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

• We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 226,000, last week was 231,000),
• We get the import price index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.5%).

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h
3. Oil Inventory Review 
4. Stuff We Care About Today - CDEV
5. Odds & Ends

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Market Sentiment Watch: Markets and energy especially have been tractionless. We expect oil to lead the way to traction in coming days/weeks.  In the meantime, we are running 2019 decks at our $60 / $3.25 deck with sensitivities above and below and comparing vs valuations at current levels. Things generally look well overdone. In today's post please find the oil inventory preview, comments on the EIA STEO (positives for both oil and natural gas - see Commodities Watch section), a quick look at the latest OPEC MOMR statistics (Call on OPEC inched lower, not higher as expected, demand for 2019 unchanged, slight reduction in non OPEC supply growth next year), the natural gas inventory preview, an updated cheat sheet for PXD, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

• We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (headline forecast = 0.0%, last read was 0.3%, core forecast = 0.2%, flat with last read),
• We get the Federal Budget at 2 pm EST (no forecast, last read was -$139 B).

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
3. Stuff We Care About Today - PXD
4. Odds & Ends

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Market Sentiment Watch: Global GDP worries stifle post OPEC rally. For now. Sitting on hands, waiting for traction with a sharpened 2019 pencil relative to our oil price deck.   In today's post please find the early read on oil inventories (consensus calling for another draw on crude stocks), pre guidance call notes on EQT (their 2019 call is Thursday), a requested cheat sheet for BCEI, the Wattenberg Players update (given the rapidity of the drop it's relevant), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

• The NFIB small business index came in at 104.8 vs 107.4 last month,
• We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.0%, last read was 0.6%),
• We get the EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) around 12 pm EST,

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. Stuff We Care About Today – EQT, BCEI
4. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »