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Second week of gains for oil and natural gas this year. The ZLT was slightly up on the week helped by the renewable component of the portfolio.

Free pieces last week:

• MGY - 4Q19 Miss, Same Game Plan, Highlights Success at Giddings
• COG - 4Q19 - Strong Volumes, Reiterates Plan, Free Cash Flowing at $2, Highlights Success at Upper Marcellus

Post's Last Week

Additional Food For Thought on COG

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

The Blotter is updated.

Have a good weekend.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Coronavirus in or out of focus depending on when you look. Yesterday relatively less concern was cited among reasons for oil to continue its recent mini-recovery. Today concern of expansion to South Korea and within Chinese prisons has markets back on edge. Delays in supply chains are going to be increasingly common as manufacturing is taking longer to get back to work than expected just a few weeks ago. In today's post please find:

• the natural gas review (in line withdrawal, see near term supply/demand table),
• the oil inventory review (better than expected, throughput a record for time of year, net imports a record low for time of year, oil and gasoline both improve YoY and to their 5 year averages),
• comments on the FSLR quarter,
• comments on the COG quarter (modest beat on volumes, EBITDA, in line EPS, guidance reiterated, highlights U Marcellus),
• link to the the updated calendar, (peak of 4Q energy reporting season is next week),
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.36 mm, last read was 5.54 mm).

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h
3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
4. Oil Inventory Review
5. Stuff We Care About Today - COG, FSLR
6. Odds & Ends

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Market Sentiment Watch: Getting busier as earnings season rolls along. People want upstream to increase dividends and so far this season that's a go where feasible (FANG, CXO, DVN all increased yesterday). In today's post please find:

• the oil inventory preview (API was a mixed bag) (11 am EST),
• the natural gas inventory preview (10:30 am EST),
• comments on the PE 4Q19 results (slight miss on volumes and reiterate guidance including $200 mm fcf at $50),
• comments on the MGY 4Q19 results (miss on lower than expected spending, potentially non operated spend, look for good Giddings update the call),
• comments on the PXD 4Q19 results (modest beat, guidance above Street, boosted dividend),
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 210,000, last read was 205,000),
• We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (F = 10.0, last read was 17.0),
• We get Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.3%).

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
3. Stuff We Care About Today - PE, MGY, PXD, VWDRY
4. Odds & Ends

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Market Sentiment Watch: Getting busier as we wade into earnings season as Corona is an issue (or not) for the group and or markets depending on which day you look. In today's post please find:

• the early read on oil inventories,
• comments on the FANG quarter (in line EBITDA on pre announced volumes, guidance unchanged, dividend doubled)
• comments on the CXO quarter (big beat on stronger than expected oil volumes, guidance ahead of Street without going over on capex, dividend upped 60% (trend here we think),
• comments on a strong quarter and guidance at ENPH,
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F= 0.2%, flat),
• We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.415 mm, last read was 1.608 mm),
• We get Building Permits at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.435 mm, last read was 1.42 mm),
• We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST,
• We get the API Oil Inventory Report at 4:30 pm EST today due to the holiday.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. Stuff We Care About Today –  FANG, CXO, ENPH, Holdings Update Table
4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »

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Market Sentiment Watch: Coronavirus impacting earnings and outlooks (notably Apple over the weekend). In today's post please find The Week That Was,  The 5 Things, an updated 4Q19 calendar, our week ahead, and some other odds and ends. In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 4.8),
• We get the Home Builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 75),
• We get the EIA Drilling Productivity Report at 12 pm EST.

The Week Ahead: 

• Wednesday - PPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC minutes, API Oil Inventory Report
• Thursday - Jobless claims, Philly Fed, Leading Economic Indicators, EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report, EIA Oil Inventory Report
• Friday - Existing Home Sales.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today –  The Five Things, Our Week Ahead
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »