19
Aug

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Much lighter week from an economic data perspective and from an oil macro data perspective. In today's post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.  Last week we updated notes and cheat sheets for a number of our larger names. This week we focus on Gassy names and will have three Gassy Player cheat sheet updates in the Tuesday post and the Gassy Player Short Form Update later in the week.  

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release scheduled. 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - No economic data release scheduled, 
  • Wednesday - Existing home sales, FOMC minutes, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, leading indicators, 
  • Friday - Jackson Hole, new home sales.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  Subscriber Mailbag
  5. Odds & Ends

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16
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 8/16/19

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The Blotter is updated.  The positions tab will be updated Monday.

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

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16
Aug

Friday Morning – MGY

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Market Sentiment Watch: More August than usual August; no one cares about anything at the moment, we continue to plan some changes (Holdings Watch) with an eye towards high grading. In today's post please find the OPEC Monthly summary (they referred to oil fundamentals as bearish for the rest of the year after increasing Call on OPEC and shaving back non OPEC supply - see comments and the monthly OPEC cheat sheet below), the natural gas review (lower than expected injection for second week; look for a similar to smaller injection next week), post quarter comments and an updated cheat sheet for MGY, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get housing starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.257 mm vs last read of 1.253 mm),
  • We get building permits at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.29 mm vs last read of 1.22 mm),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 96.8 mm, last read of 98.4 mm),

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - MGY
  5. Odds & Ends

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15
Aug

Thursday Morning – PE, VWDRY

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Market Sentiment Watch: August. Really really August. In today's post please find the oil inventory review (neutral report, see review section below), the natural gas preview (still roughly in line with last week's build, expect a smaller build next week), comments and a post quarter cheat sheet updated for PE, comments on the Vestas quarter (modest miss - projects back end loaded, service at record, order intake a record, back log at record, tightened revenue guidance up, tightened margin guidance 50 bips lower on mid, sees strong 2020), and some other odds and ends. We get the OPEC Monthly (delayed a week) tomorrow.  

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 213,000, last read was 209,000),
  • We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST (headline forecast = 0.3%, last read was 0.4%; ex autos forecast = 0.5%, last read 0.4%),
  • We get productivity at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.7%, last read was 3.4%),
  • We get unit labor costs at 8:30 am EST (F = 2.5%, last read was -1.6%),
  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 4.3),
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 21.8),
  • We get industrial production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 0.0%),
  • We get capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 77.9%, last read was 77.9%),
  • We get business inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get NAHB home builders index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 65).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - PE, VWDRY, PES =>PESX
  5. Odds & Ends

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14
Aug

Wednesday Morning – CXO

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Market Sentiment Watch: Most eyes on the 10 year. Group still looking for traction with volumes at summer typical low. Oil did find traction on trade hopes yesterday confirming demand (trade thoughts related to China) is in charge now relative to supply (potential disruptions). Names that have found traction are free cash flow standouts. We are reviewing them post quarter almost daily. In today's post please find the oil inventory preview (API reported a truly mixed set of numbers; please see our notes on this in the Commodity Watch section), the natural gas inventory preview (still expecting an inline with last week type of number, comments and an updated cheat sheet for CXO, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Import Prices at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.3%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - CXO
  4. Odds & Ends

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