23
Oct

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Energy eyes focused on scale. 
    • Stage 1:  Start grouping the oily names.
    • Stage 2: Start grouping the gassy names.
    • Stage 3:  Majors realize natural gas matters and go after the result of Stage 2.
    • Somewhere in there we would expect SMID cap combos in hopes of balance sheet timeline extension and achieving target status. We have some notes on this towards the bottom of the post.

Housekeeping Watch: There are no dumb questions here other than the one that doesn't get asked.

In today's post please find:

  • the natural gas review (modestly smaller than expected injection, roughly half this week's injection size next week as LNG exports rally and heating demand surged this week),
  • the gassy players update,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Markit manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 53.2),
  • We get Markit service PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 54.6).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - Biden
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Gassy Players Update, AMSC, rumors, MGY (this will be Friday food for thought on twitter as a guess)
  5. Odds & Ends

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22
Oct

Thursday Morning – First Mini Earnings Avalanche of the Season

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • The renewables space took a drubbing yesterday with solar in the lead on the declines. The run has been strong and some profit taking along the way is to be expected. We had previously taken some profits but not a lot our our sense is this is more speed bump than new slump.
  • Market eyes remain very focused on stimulus chatter. So far, that's all it is.

Housekeeping Watch:

  • If you're not getting ZBLAST trade notices at the correct email address please let us know.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (positive side of neutral type report, skewed by Delta impacts),
  • the natural gas preview (Consensus remains below our expectation for today's build; no change to our peak storage thinking),
  • comments on a number of reporting names of interest today,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 860,000, last read was 898,000),
  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F 6.36 mm, last read was 6.0 mm),
  • We get leading economic indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.2%),
  • We get natural gas inventories at 10:30 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CLB, EQT, PTEN, VLO, Calendar
  5. Odds & Ends

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21
Oct

Wednesday Morning – PE Goes to PXD, BCEI, A New Name Piece

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  •  Market eyes still on stimulus.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview (easy comps; API was solid on products overnight),
  • the natural gas inventory preview (Street is still a bit smaller than we expect),
  • new name to watch,
  • PXD is in fact acquiring PE
  • comments on BCEI
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST,
  • We get the Beige Book at 2 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - A new name to watch, PXD for PE, BCEI,  3Q20 Earnings Calendar
  4. Odds & Ends

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20
Oct

Tuesday Morning – COP, PE, FANG

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Market Sentiment Watch:

In today's post please find:

  • the early read on oil inventories (Street sees more draws; we think they are light on the crude draw),
  • the very early read on natural gas inventories (Street's a little lower than us),
  • COP pro forma table with a couple of other likely targets for comps,
  • and now PE is reported by multiple credible outfits to be in talks to be gobbled up by PXD (simply not at all surprised to see PE go away, next up FANG),
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.416 mm),
  • We get Building Permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.476 mm),
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  COP pro forma table with PE and FANG comps, PE, Eagle Ford comment, 3Q20 Earnings Calendar,
  4. Odds & Ends

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19
Oct

Merger Monday

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Market eyes on the stimulus clock during an economically data light week
  • China 3Q data was light overnight on GDP and stronger on retail sales,
  • Energy market eyes will be looking for more consolidation after COP announced a move on CXO as expected today.

In today's post please find:

  • The Week That Was,
  • The Five Things,
  • Comments on the HAL 3Q20 results,
  • 3Q20 Earnings Calendar,
  • COP / CXO,
  • and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the NAHB home builders' index at 6 am EST (no forecast, last read was 83).

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Housing starts, building permits,
  • Wednesday - Beige Book,
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, existing home sales, leading economic indicators,
  • Friday - Markit PMI

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, HAL, COP/CXO, the 3Q20 Energy Earnings Calendar, VWDRY, JKS
  5. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »

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