29
Feb

Thursday Morning – SHLS, EE, NFE

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Housekeeping Watch:

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory slide show, 
  • the natural gas inventory preview,
  • comments on SHLS 4Q23 results and outlook (significant miss and guide below Street as high interest rates prompt project delays - we added more yesterday pre numbers and may add more again soon as it will take a good gap down today),
  • comments on the EE 4Q23 results,
  • comments on the NFE 4Q23 results,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 210,000; last week was 201,000),
  • We get personal income at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get personal spending at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 0.7%),
  • We get PCE at 8:30 am EST:
    • Headline forecast is 0.3%, last was 0.2%,
    • Core forecast is 0.4% vs 0.2% last month,
    • PCE YoY forecast is 2.4% vs 2.6% last month,
    • Core PCE YoY is 2.8%, flat with last month. 
  • We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (F = 48; last month was 46),
  • We get pending home sales at 10 am EST (F = 1.5%, last read was 8.3%),
  • We get the EIA natural gas storage report at 10:30 am EST.

      In Today’s Post:

      1. Holdings Watch
      2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil inventory slide show and natural gas inventory previews
      3. Stuff We Care About Today - SHLS, NFE, EE, 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar
      4. Odds & Ends

      Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


      28
      Feb

      Wednesday Morning – PR, CIVI and Others

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      Housekeeping Watch:

      In today's post please find:

      • the natural gas inventory preview, 
      • the oil inventory preview,
      • comments on the PR 4Q23 results,
      • comments on the CIVI 4Q23 results,
      • 4Q23 energy earnings calendar,
      • and some other odds and ends.

      Ecodata Watch:

      • We get the GDP 4Q revision at 8:30 am EST (forecast to be flat with the original 3.3% rate),
      • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.

      In Today’s Post:

      1. Holdings Watch
      2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
      3. Stuff We Care About Today - PR, CIVI, GPOR, ARRY, ICD, 4Q23 energy earnings calendar,
      4. Odds & Ends

      Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


      27
      Feb

      Tuesday Morning – SAND + VTS

      Housekeeping Watch:  If you sent us an email and didn't get a response back pretty much immediately it likely was routed to spam. We get A LOT of spam and sometimes miss those notifications. If you think this is the case text us using the contact number on the contact page.

      In today's post please find:

      • the early read on natural gas inventories,
      • comments on the SLCA 4Q23,
      • comments on the AESI 4Q23 results and Hi-Crush acquisition,
      • comments on small cap non op Bakken player VTS 4Q23 results (beat, guide in line on volumes but mix is better, maintained the big dividend, maintained the strong balance sheet ... estimates will rise),  
      • 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar,
      • and some other odds and ends.

      Ecodata Watch:

      • We durable goods at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.5%, last read was 0.0%),
      • We get S&P Case-Shiller home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 5.4%),
      • We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST (F = 115.0, last read was 114.8),
      • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST.  

      In Today’s Post:

      1. Holdings Watch
      2. Commodity Watch
      3. Stuff We Care About Today – SLCA, AESI, VTS, 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar
      4. Odds & Ends

      Click the link directly below this to ...

      Continue Reading »


      26
      Feb

      Monday Morning

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      In today's post please find:

      • The Week That Was,
      • 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar, 
      • and some other odds and ends.

      In case you missed The Wrap

      Eco Data Watch: 

      • We get New home sale at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 664,000).

      The Week Ahead: 

      • Tuesday - Durable-goods, S&P Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, 
      • Wednesday - GDP 4Q revision, Chicago PMI, EIA Oil Inventories
      • Thursday - Jobless claims, persoinal income, personal income, PCE, pending home sales, EIA Natural Gas Storage,
      • Friday - No economic data release scheduled but 4 Fed heads speaking. 

      In Today’s Post:

      1. Holdings Watch
      2. Commodity Watch
      3. The Week That Was
      4. Stuff We Care About Today – 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar 
      5. Odds & Ends

      Click the link directly below this to ...

      Continue Reading »


      24
      Feb

      Wrap – Week Ended 2/23/24

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      We were flat on the week last week after the prior week's 8+% bump higher and the portfolio is down 2% on the year. A few thoughts as we approach the 7th inning stretch of the 4Q23 energy earnings season. These are largely not ordered. 

      • Natural gas sentiment is overly weak.
        • Storage remains in surplus and spring end of season thoughts have drifted above 2 Tcf.
        • Production is in plateau.
        • Supply (production less net exports) is in plateau and about to be in plateau minus. 
        • Power burn is more resilient than expected. Industrial is too. Heating load is about to matter a whole lot less. 
        • The non commercial short position jumped bigly last week.
        • There has been a from "maintenance mode" to "maintenance mode minus" 
      • U.S. Oily names are still greatly preferred among upstream investors 
        • This is unlikely to change this year. 
        • There appears to be some consensus building that OPEC+ will roll voluntary curtailments through 2Q. 
        • Cracks are supportive of a shallow spring maintenance season. 
        • Inventories are not overstored and distillates are again back into meaningful deficit.
        • Net imports to the U.S. remain bottom of barrel. 
        • Many large cap E&Ps are looking to hold oil volumes flat to 4Q23 levels this year.
        • We, like many, expect more consolidation among the large and smid cap players.
          • We were please that Bakken player CHRD picked off ERF this week and not DVN.
          • We expect other Rockies consolidation later this year.  
        • US oil production growth will be tepid in 2024. 
      • U.S. Oil Service
        • Doom is overdone.
        • Oil rig count is now starting to rise - this was expected and is the normal seasonal rebound if a little under our end of year thoughts. 
        • The active frac spread count is also rising. Also expected and a little ahead of our end of 2023 thoughts. 
        • Discipline among rig and frac spread operators appears to be universal. 
        • See our reviews of LBRT and PTEN 4Q23 reports. 
        • A move by gassy players, led by CHK and likely by SWN as well and somewhat by CTRA to bank TIL wells and not just DUC wells is good for service names and good for sand names. 

      We are through 46 names that we own or pay attention to of the 4Q season and have 30 to go. Next week is the season peak with 22 names reporting on top of each other. Investors are bored. Analysts are tired. We remain constructive for oil and have been adding to oily, gassy, and select oil service names. 

      Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post as the weather is spring like here and not raining for the first time in recent memory. 

      Questions about the site may be directed to zmanalpha@gmail.com 

      Or just check out the Membership Options tab at left to take a Test Drive. 

      Have a good weekend,

      Z.

       

       

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