10
Dec

Monday Morning – OPEC Summary, XOG

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC more than delivered (factoring in other adjustments - see comments in the stuff section, archived under OPEC). More eyes now shift back to U.S. / China trade relations as the year winds down and this week's economic data is less key than last week's. In energyland we will get the OPEC MOMR and the EIA STEO reports. Non OPEC supply and OPEC supply likely get a downgrade in both.  In today's post please find comments on Clearbrook (Bakken) comments in the Commodities Watch section as well as the oil and natural gas Price Deck notes (the Street is moving towards us now in both directions for the two commodities respectively, The Week That Was, an updated cheat sheet and comments on XOG (not our 2019 Z4 EBITDA estimate), and some other odds and ends. 

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get job openings at 10 am (no forecast, last read was 7.0 mm (just keeps rising).

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - PPI, EIA STEO,
  • Wednesday - CPI, federal budget, OPEC MOMR,
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, import prices, 
  • Friday - Retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, business inventories. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  OPEC+ Summary, Subscriber Mailbag, XOG 
  5. Odds & Ends

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08
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 12/07/18

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The Blotter is updated (Blotter 2) 

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We will have summary OPEC+ meeting comments in the Monday post. Other questions and comments will be addressed in the Monday post. 

 

Please look for an important Holiday Housekeeping Watch in the Tuesday post. 

 

In today's Wrap we have included the natural gas table and graphs and a look at this past week's natural gas supply and demand given reporting delays that removed them from Friday's post.  The usual Wrap table is at the bottom. 

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07
Dec

OPEC+ Friday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC Day 2 (comments in the Commodity Watch section plus in the comments section below). In today's post please find the oil inventory review (better than expected by far on crude (monster draw), record U.S. crude exports, record for time of year throughput and gasoline stocks rose more than expected but less than usual shrinking the surplus there which has been a worry area for oil prices), the natural gas preview (much bigger than year ago and slight bigger than 5 year average withdrawal expected), the Permian Players update, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 am EST (F = 190,000, last read was 250,000),
  • We get the unemployment rate at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.7%, flat with last month),
  • We get average hourly earnings at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read 0.2%),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 97.3, last read was 97.5). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Permian Players
  5. Odds & Ends

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06
Dec

OPEC Meeting Thursday

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC Day. In today's post please find the oil inventory preview, comments on the ongoing OPEC meeting, the natural gas inventory preview (note that the release has been delayed until tomorrow morning), the Wattenberg Players update (expanded with more spending and hedge data and updated through 3Q18 results),  and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get ADP employment at 8:15 am EST (last read was 227,000),
  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 224,000, last read was 234,000)
  • We get the trade deficit at 8:30 am EST (F = -$55.1 B, last read was -$54 B),
  • We get productivity for 3Q at 8:30 am EST (F = 2.2%, last read was 2.2%),
  • We get unit labor costs for 3Q at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.0%, last read was 1.2%),
  • We get ISM nonmanufacturing at 10 am EST (F = 59.1%, last read was 60.3%), 
  • We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = -2.0%, last read was +0.7%),
  • We get the oil inventory release at 11 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Wattenberg Players Update (archived under Wattenberg)
  4. Odds & Ends

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04
Dec

Tuesday & Wednesday Morning – HPR

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC top of mind for the week. In today's post please find the early read on oil inventories (the Street is looking for the first draw in ten weeks as throughput is up over 1 mm bopd in the last two weeks ... this could happen though net imports can always intervene in any given week ... but monster builds are increasingly less likely for now), comments and an initial cheat sheet for HPR, and some other odds and ends.  Markets will be closed Wednesday in observance of the funeral of President George Herbert Walker Bush. Thank you for your service and Rest in Peace Mr. Bush.  

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release today or tomorrow.  The normal oil inventory report set for tomorrow has been postponed until Thursday. 
  • OPEC has set a press conference time for Thursday of 1 pm (7 am EST) which if they keep to schedule would be a fairly quick meeting. This will be followed by a joint press conference for OPEC+ the next day at the same time. We expect an OPEC+ cut in excess of 1.4 mm bopd to be announced from November output levels.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  HPR
  4. Odds & Ends

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