02
Feb

Thursday Morning – Natural Gas Macro Update, Natural Gas Inventory Preview, CLB, COP

 

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In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review,
  • the natural gas preview,
  • the natural gas macro slide show - parts 1 through 4,
  • comments on the CLB and COP 4Q22 reports, 
  • a 4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar update, 
  • and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 195,000; last week was 188,000),
  • We get productivity at 8:30 am EST (F = 2.5%; last read was 0.8%),
  • We get unit labor costs at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.5%; last read was 2.4%),
  • We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = 2.0%, last read was -1.6%),
  • We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Natural Gas Macro, CLB, COP,  4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar Update
  5. Odds & Ends

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01
Feb

Wednesday Morning – WIOWIO Part 6, Oil and Natural Gas Inventory Previews, MGY

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Housekeeping Watch:

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview,
  • the natural gas inventory preview,
  • WIOWIO Part 6,
  • comments and a cheat sheet update on MGY,
  • a 4Q22 energy earnings calendar update,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get ADP employment at 8:15 am EST (F = 190,000; last read was 235,000),
  • We get S&P manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am EST (F = 46.8, flat with prior),
  • We get ISM manufacturing index at 10 am EST (F = 48.0%, last read was 48.4%),
  • We get job openings at 10 am EST (F = 10.3 mm, last month was 10.5 mm),
  • We get construction spending at 10 am EST (F = 0.0%, last read was 0.2%), 
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.
  • We get the Fed funds rate at 2 pm EST followed by the Jerome Powell press conference at 2.30 pm EST, 
    • Probability of a 25 basis point increase according the CME tool is 100% with an 85% chance for another 25 bps in late March and then elevated odds of a pause.
  • The OPEC JMMC meets today (expected to be a non event),
  • We get car sales over the course of the day (no forecast, last read had recovered to 13.3 mm).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - WIOWIO Part 6 (VWDRY, TPIC), 4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar, MGY, FANG
  4. Odds & Ends

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31
Jan

Tuesday Morning – XOM, So Far This Quarter

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Housekeeping Watch:  If you sent us an email and didn't get a response back pretty much immediately it likely was routed to spam. We get A LOT of spam and sometimes miss those notifications. If you think this is the case text us using the contact number on the contact page.

In today's post please find:

  • the early reads on oil and natural gas inventories,
  • So Far This Quarter (3rd edition),
  • A 4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar update,
  • Comments on the XOM 4Q22 report,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Employment Cost Index at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.1%, last read was 1.2%),
  • We get Case-Shiller home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was -3.1%,
  • We get consumer confidence at 9:45 am EST (F = 109.0, last read was 108.4),  
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – So Far This Quarter, 4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar, XOM, CRK,
  4. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »


30
Jan

Monday Morning

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Housekeeping Watch  

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    In today's post please find:

    • The Week That Was,
    • The Five Things (part 1 only today, more parts later this week),
    • and some other odds and ends.

    In case you missed The Wrap

    Eco Data Watch: 

    • No economic data release. 

    The Week Ahead: 

    • Tuesday - Employment cost index, Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, 
    • Wednesday - ADP employment, S&P manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing index, job openings and quits, construction spending, Fed funds rate, Jerome Powell press conference, EIA Oil Inventories, car sales, OPEC JMMC,
    • Thursday - Jobless claims, productivity, unit labor costs, factory orders, EIA Natural Gas Storage,
    • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, hourly earnings, S&P services PMI, ISM services. 

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watch
    3. The Week That Was
    4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things (part 1), 4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar,--- -----
    5. Odds & Ends

    Click the link directly below this to ...

    Continue Reading »


    28
    Jan

    Wrap – Week Ended 1/27/23

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    It was a fairly busy second week in the energy earnings 4Q22 reporting season with reports from one large cap gassy upstream player, an indie refiner, a Major, and several oil service names posting largely better than expected results and as expected guidance and outlooks.  CNX (unowned here) was a modest exception to our 5 Things list of items to expect for 4Q22 in terms of volume guidance (most will be in maintenance mode), with a down 3% forecast on one off items whose effects will cascade through 2023 (so, "maintenance minus").  Please see yesterday's So Far This Quarter update that covers the high points of the season name by name from SLB at the start of season through mid week and look for the next iteration next Tuesday.

    The portfolio ended the week up 0.8% in a lackluster week for the commodities. This is noise in our view and our outlook remains constructive for oil and increasingly constructive for natural gas.

    Please also see our comments and cheat sheet update for the TXO IPO in last Thursday's post. The deal priced in the middle of the range at $20 and ended Friday at $22.  Still a nice yield there in this low float small cap SJB and Permian gassy partnership.

    Holdings Watch:

    • Busy trade week as the ZLT goes with adds to one solar tied name, one frac name (multiple trades), one sand name, and two of our smaller upstream gassy positions where we've been fairly patient adders through the shoulder and the mild spots this winter.
    • The trading blotter is updated here.

    A few brief comments on The Wrap table below:

    1. Oil
      • The EIA weekly was much less sloppy this period delivering on our thoughts of higher throughput and much lower net imports (3rd lowest weekly figure on record and the lowest for this week of the year).
      • Implied demand as portrayed by EIA remains, in the words of Valero management, "low to us" and the expect those numbers to get corrected going forward.
      • Cracks remain extremely elevated as gasoline and especially distillates are well under-stored to the five year average.
      • The WTI - Brent spread remains conducive to elevated exports even as we saw a second week of zero SPR barrel release.
    2. Natural Gas
      • Last week's withdrawal was modestly above Street consensus and was in line with our "near 90 Bcf" comment.
      • We are looking for a "near 145 Bcf" pull this coming Thursday and at last check the consensus was at -138 BCf.
      • Storage is modestly above year ago and five year average levels. This is fine.
      • Freeport LNG has begun the long awaited process of getting its 2.1 Bcfgpd of capacity back on line. Look for larger feed gas volumes in coming days as they cool down and then more news from them and FERC on next steps.
      • We have heard several traders and hedge funds are in the 4+ Tcf camp EOS camp and have gotten the most short they've been in 3 year. We're not in that camp. We see higher LNG this year vs last and only modestly higher dry gas production (CNX may not be the only ones to speak to lower 2023 volumes or at least lower 1H23 volumes). Meanwhile, we expect another year of record demand.
      • Look for an updated macro piece from us in about a week.

    We're through 9 of 76 reviews and conference calls of owned and/or names of interest in the energy space. Come See Us. 

    Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

    Questions about the site may be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com 

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