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Market Sentiment Watch:

• Energy eyes on today's OPEC+ meeting. We are seeing more articles along the lines of "the end of oil". We see this as premature.
• Market eyes increasingly focused on bond yield, tech sector, and should be on payrolls tomorrow.

Free Stuff Watch:

• Falcon Minerals (FLMN) - Still Discounted As Activity Begins to Recover. 

In today's post please find:

• the oil inventory review (another week of storm driven numbers),
• the natural gas preview (a bigger than normal for time of year pull expected),
• gassy player short interest,
• FLMN 4Q20 notes,
• an updated 4Q20 calendar (two more names next week, still waiting on some release dates)
• and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

• We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 750,000, last read was 730,000),
• We get productivity at 8:30 am EST (F = -4.7%, last read was -4.8%),
• We get unit labor costs at 8:30 am EST (F = 6.6%, last read was 6.8%),
• We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = 2.3%, last read was 1.1%),
• We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 
  

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h
3. Oil Inventory Review 
4. Stuff We Care About Today - Gassy Player Short Interest, FLMN, 4Q20 Calendar
   
5. Odds & Ends

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• Market leery of more SPACs coming to market this week.
• Energy markets watching re-opening announcements vs new variants and Covid numbers which have greatly improved but which may be seeing slowing improvement again (fear of the 4th wave).
• Energy eyes on OPEC+ chatter today and the expected decision tomorrow.

Housekeeping Watch:  We experienced a brief site outage yesterday (thanks to Scott for keeping it super brief).  If you don't have our backup site added to your list of browser bookmarks please do so now.  www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com.  If the site goes down for more than a few minutes we generally fire up a back up copy over there. 

In today's post please find:

• the oil inventory preview (as we saw last week, post storm numbers are often messy; last week there was an expectation of large pulls from stocks across the board and we didn't get that; this is week the expectation is for draws again, just more modest ones),
• the natural gas inventory preview (a lot of variance in the weekly storage withdrawal estimates this week, likely due to production outages and the shifting weather; still expecting a bigger withdrawal than year ago or 5 year average),
• SWN - comments and a cheat sheet update (a lot of new color added here supporting significant free cash flow generation ability),
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get ADP employment at 8:15 am EST (F = 210,000; last read was 174,000),
• We get ISM services at 10 am EST (F = 58.7%, last read was 58.7%),
• We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
3. Stuff We Care About Today - SWN, MGY
4. Odds & Ends

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Housekeeping Watch:  Not getting ZBLAST trade notifications at the correct address?  Let us know at zman@zmansenergybrain.com. 

In today's post please find:

• the very early read on natural gas inventories (another bigger than year ago and five year average pull from storage expected; storage has shifted from price suppressive to very modestly price supportive; supply continues to be price supportive; prices remain overly low),
• comments, target range changes, and an updated cheat sheet for core oily name MGY, 
• and some other odds and ends.
  

Ecodata Watch:

• We get car sales over the course of the day (no estimate, last read was 16.6 mm),
• We get API oil inventories at 4:30 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. Stuff We Care About Today – MGY, PLUG, STPK, ARRY
4. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• Earning season winding down, 
• Energy eyes on OPEC+ later this week,
• Market eyes on the 10-year Treasury.

In today's post please find:

• The Week That Was,
• The Four Things,
• and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get ISM manufacturing at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 58.5), 
• We get construction spending at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.0%).

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday - Car sales, API oil inventories, 
• Wednesday - ADP employment, ISM services, EIA oil inventories, 
• Thursday - OPEC+ Meeting, Jobless claims, productivity revision, unit labor costs revision, factory orders, EIA natural gas storage, 
• Friday - nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings trade deficit, consumer credit.  

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Four Things, VWDRY   
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »

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4Q20 energy earnings season is winding down. Traditional energy has held up well (largely on strong oil prices and reiterated promises of capital discipline) but tech/renewables has gotten increasingly sloppy over the last couple of weeks.

Holdings Watch:

• We added to 1 core gassy name last week.
• We added to 1 core wind name last week.
• We further shaved positions in QS (up 302%, preceding sale was > $101) and PLUG (up 765%; preceding sale was at $75)

Free Stuff Last Week: 

• MGY - 4Q20 comments

• BCEI - 4Q20 comments plus HPR should be lower comments.

Questions under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

Have a good weekend, 

Z
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