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Market Sentiment Watch:

• All eyes on OPEC+.  Sources are pointing to an incremental increase in production of 0.5 mm bopd per month beginning in January backed by Russia and UAE.
• Natural gas is falling on an expected mid month re-warming.

Housekeeping Watch: 

• Site improvements ~ send us your thoughts with "Site Improvements" in the subject line to zman@zmansenergybrain.com.  
• If you are not getting ZBLAST trade notices at the correct email address please email us on that as well. 
• If you don't follow us on twitter you might consider it.  See that little blue bird follow button above.
• Please bookmark out back up site (just in case):  www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com 

In today's post please find:

• the oil inventory review (modestly negative, demand remains quite poor),
• the natural gas preview (small draw this week, bigger draw on real cold next),
• a few requested words on green space names,
• a micro cheat on QS, 
• and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

• We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 780,000, last read was 778,000),
• We get the ISM services index at 10 am EST (F = 56.4%, last read was 56.6%),
• We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 
  

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h
3. Oil Inventory Review 
4. Stuff We Care About Today - Renewables, QS, JKS
   
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• OPEC meets virtually again tomorrow. Bloomberg reports quiet effort to repair differences is underway. No surprise there. Note that oil is more resilient than we normally would expect during this type of group meeting strife.
• UK clears Pfizer vaccine for distribution. Expect U.S. to do the same on or about December 10th.
• Smaller stimulus package is back on the table.

In today's post please find:

• the oil inventory preview (benign report expected, bearish looking API last night),
• the natural gas inventory preview (likely in line with last week's pull before demand really grows for next week's report),
• requested comments and a cheat sheet for BSM,
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get ADP employment at 8:15 am EST (no forecast, last read was 364,000),
• Powell and Mnuchin testify at 10 am EST. 
• We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST,
• We get the Beige Book at 2 pm EST.
• House to vote on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act today.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
3. Stuff We Care About Today - BSM
4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• Energy eyes remain nervous as OPEC pushed the OPEC+ meeting back from today until Thursday. We still expect a 3 month curb extension, eventually, though we may see some from of hybrid plan with both a gradual increase during the period and a catch up mechanism for over producers like Iraq,
• The OECD cut its view of 2021 global growth from 5% to 4.2%,
• Market eyes may actually be back on rising Covid cases and a stretched healthcare system ... hard to say.

In today's post please find:

• the early read on oil inventories (benign report expect, tough comps for oil, easy comps for products),
• the very early read on natural gas inventories (meh type report set up this week, better next week as we get some actual heating demand),
• comments, a target and cheat sheet update for VWDRY, 
• and some other odds and ends.
  

Ecodata Watch:

• We get ISM manufacturing at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 59.3%),
• We get construction spending at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.3%),
• We get car sales over the course of the day (no forecast, last read was 16.2 mm which was a sharp improvement from early Covid days).
• We get API oil inventories at 4:30 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch - Price Deck Watch
3. Stuff We Care About Today –  VWDRY, Bargain Bin
4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• Stimulus back on the market's holiday wish list (both for an extension of unemployment benefits and for vaccine distribution aid to the states),
• Energy markets are focused on OPEC meeting today and the OPEC+ meeting tomorrow.
  • Before the meeting a ministerial panel failed to agree upon delaying the currently planned output increase.
  • A 3 month extension of the current curtailment levels (through March 2021) is expected and some are hopeful for a deal through mid year (we see as unlikely).

Housekeeping Watch: 

• Site improvements ~ send us your thoughts with "Site Improvements" in the subject line to zman@zmansenergybrain.com.  
• If you are not getting ZBLAST trade notices at the correct email address please email us on that as well. 
• If you don't follow us on twitter you might consider it.  See that little blue bird follow button above.
• Please bookmark out back up site (just in case):  www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com 

In today's post please find:

• The Week That Was,
• The Five Things,
• comments on PLUG,
• and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 61.1),
• We get pending home sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -2.2%)

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday - ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, car sales, 
• Wednesday - ADP employment, Beige Book, 
• Thursday - Jobless claims, ISM services, 
• Friday - Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings, trade deficit, factory orders. 

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch - price deck watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, KCAC-->QS, HCAC, PLUG
5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »

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Positive if short week with the ZLT up 9.7% in three and a half sessions. YTD (through 11/25/20) the ZLT is up 20.7% (up 49.7% in the last 3 months).

Holdings Watch:

• We doubled up in one of our renewable positions.
• We continue to hold 18 positions.
• Our KCAC began trading as QS on Friday.  Our original piece for Seeking Alpha can be found here. 
• The Blotter is updated.
• We remain very long.

Free Stuff Last Week:

• FLMN - comments on the current plan, a look at 2021 under a number of price and volume scenarios, and a cheat sheet update.

Marketing Watch:

• Ranked 88th out of 7743 "Bloggers" on tip ranks. https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/steve-zachritz
• For questions about the site contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com
• To subscribe please see the Membership Options page. 

Questions under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

Have a good weekend,

Z

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