13
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 8/12/22

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We're traveling this weekend so I'll keep this brief.  It was a solid week with the ZLT, our portfolio of 27 names, up 12.4% on the week and now 41% on the year (someone asked) which is HOY.  We have one week of 2Q22 earnings season left, and are now through 66 reports on our calendar of 73 companies owned or of interest. Things have gone pretty well with the majority reporting better than expected results on price and a few key names reporting better results on volumes as well. Operating costs for the upstream names have generally edged higher although this pales in comparison with commodity price gains. Most are not bolstering hedges. Almost everyone who was in "maintenance mode" still is. Those that raised volume guidance did so on well performance, it was small, and it's not some sort of move to get a lot rigs running. The expected Capex budget inflation has been fairly tame. In the renewables wedge of the portfolio the abrupt disclosure and subsequent passage of the IRA Bill has helped to sharply rally a group that was already well into the process of bottoming.

Free Stuff Last Week:

Holdings Watch:

  • HPK – We sold our remaining HPK position at average just over $21, up 57% to our remaining position cost with nearly half previously sold between $28 and $37 in late spring.
  • We added to off the beaten track E&P CRGY at $13.81.
  • We added to a Sand name and a Service name during the week as well.
  • The blotter is updated

Questions under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

Questions about the site may be directed to zmanalpha@gmail.com or zman@zmansenergybrain.com

Promised to be brief but here's a notable progression.

Have a good weekend,

Z


12
Aug

T.G.I.F.

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Housekeeping Watch:  Are we using the correct email for you?  If you're not getting ZBLAST's or are getting them at the wrong address contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com

In today's post please find:

  • the natural gas review (look for a modestly smaller injection next week on strong power burn),
  • comments on the PFHC quarter (big 2Q22 beat, much better than Street expected and above guidance EBITDA margins, estimates to rise).
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get import prices at 8:30 am EST (F = -1.0%, last read was 0.2%)
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 52.5, last read was 51.5),
  • We get UMich 5 year inflation expectations at 10 am EST (no forecast, last month's read was 2.9%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - ST natural gas supply demand balance sheet, NGL prices,
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - PFHC/USWS
  5. Odds & Ends

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11
Aug

Thursday Morning – Oil Review, Natural Gas Preview, EE, USWS

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In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review,
  • the natural gas preview,
  • OPEC and IEA monthly notes,
  • comments on the USWS quarter,
  • comments on the EE quarter,
  • and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 264,000; last week was 260,000),
  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 1.1%),
  • We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h- OPEC MOMR, IEA, Natural Gas Preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - EE, USWS, AR
  5. Odds & Ends

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10
Aug

Wednesday Morning – More Late Season Earnings

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Housekeeping Watch:

  • Please bookmark our back up site, just in case:  www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com.
  • If you are not getting emails at the proper address or not getting them at all please let us know at zman@zmansenergybrain.com 
  • If you are new to the site or a long time subscriber please don't hesitate to ask questions.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview,
  • the natural gas inventory preview,
  • comments on a number of reporting names of interest,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2% headline, 1.3% last read and 0.5% Core, 0.7% last read),
  • We get YoY CPI at that the same time. Headline forecast is 8.7% vs prior 9.1% and Core forecast of 6.1% vs last month's 5.9%),
  • We get wholesale inventories at 10 am EST (F = 1.9%, last read was 1.75),
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - ARRY, VWDRY, SND, CRGY
  4. Odds & Ends

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09
Aug

Tuesday Morning – HPK, GOEV

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In today's post please find:

  • the very early read on natural gas inventories,
  • comments on the HPK quarter,
  • comments on the GOEV quarter,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get NFIB small business index at 6 am EST (F = 89.5, flat with last read), 
  • We get productivity at 8:30 am EST (F = -4.3%, last read was -7.3%),
  • We get unit labor costs at 8:30 am EST (F = 9.3%, last read was 12.6%).
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – HPK, GOEV, 2Q22 Calendar, CRK
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »

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