16
Sep

Thursday Morning – Oil Inventory Slide Show, Natural Gas Preview, PUMP

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In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (positive report),
  • the natural gas preview,
  • PUMP comments,
  • and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 318,000, last read was 310,000),
  • We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.7%, last read was -1.1%; ex autos F = 0.2%, last read was -0.4%),
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (F = 18.9, last read was 19.4),
  • We get business inventories at 10 am EST (F = 0.5%, last read was 0.8%),
  • We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - PUMP, PUMP Comps, VWDRY---
  5. Odds & Ends

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15
Sep

Wednesday Morning – LBRT, JKS

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In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview (across the board draw downs expected),
  • the natural gas inventory preview (bigger sequential build, but smaller than last year or 5 year average),
  • LBRT thoughts,
  • JKS 2Q21 comments,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get import prices at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (F = 17.2, last read was 18.3),
  • We get industrial production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.5%, last read was 0.9%),
  • We get capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 76.4%, last read was 76.1%),
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - LBRT, JKS
  4. Odds & Ends

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14
Sep

Tuesday Morning – NEX, Gassy Players Update

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In today's post please find:

  • the early read on oil inventories (across the board inventory pulls expected),
  • the very early read on natural gas inventories (bigger sequentially but smaller than year ago and five year average),
  • a NEX update,
  • a liquids rich gassy players update,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the NFIB small business index at 6 am EST (F = 99.0, last read was 99.7),
  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 0.4%, last read was 0.5%; core F = 0.3%, last core read was 0.3%), 
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch - two position additions yesterday
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – ENPH vs SEDG, NEX, Gassy Players Update (Liquids Rich Group), PTRA
  4. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »


13
Sep

Monday Morning

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Housekeeping Watch:

  • The request line is open. 

In today's post please find:

  • The Week That Was,
  • The Five Things,
  • and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the OPEC MOMR today
  • We get the federal budget at 2 pm EST

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - NFIB small business, CPI, API oil inventories 
  • Wednesday - Import prices, Empire State, industrial production, capacity utilization, EIA oil inventories, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, retail sales, Philly Fed, business inventories, EIA natural gas storage, 
  • Friday - Consumer sentiment, Baker rig count

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, VWDRY
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

  Continue Reading »


12
Sep

Wrap – Week Ended 9/10/11

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Never Forget. This weekend is a rough one for many. It helps to reach out. 

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Holdings Watch:

  • We closed our CRK position up 47%.  This was a somewhat rare trade in the portfolio, taken in late August that ran faster than expected and through two of our upside targets ... so it's out again.
  • We closed our BWEN position up 89%
  • We added a solar segment name
  • The blotter is updated.

Notable Numbers from last week:

  • Well not in terms of energy benchmark performance. Everything was off slightly with the broader markets in the short week with oil service and renewables a little worse than most.
  • Natural gas prices - see front month up another 6.4% and 12 month strip up 5.3% despite a bigger than expected injection and the promise of a more season one this week.
    • The 2022 and 2023 strips advances again as well.
    • Skip down to the CFTC section and the third and higher volume week of short covering for part of the reasoning here.
    • Natural gas is a bit ahead of itself at this time and we noted earlier in the week that EIA is looking for weaker power burn in 2022 and a big jump in coal consumption on the current strip.
    • While gas in storage is 7.4% below 5 year average and 16.8% below year ago levels at 2,923 Bcf this is not an extraordinarily low level looking back in time and peak 2021 and trough 2022 are not set to be record type levels either so again, a bit of a cover bump here that needs to deflate a little (bullish on gas, just not foolish on gas).
  • Frac spreads, according to @PrimaryVision, edged up 4 to 244, tying the cycle high reached a few weeks ago.
  • Rigs began to rebound from Ida power loss and we note rigs in the Permian hit a new cycle high.

Questions under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

Have a good weekend,

Z

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