09
Aug

Tuesday Morning – HPK, GOEV

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In today's post please find:

  • the very early read on natural gas inventories,
  • comments on the HPK quarter,
  • comments on the GOEV quarter,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get NFIB small business index at 6 am EST (F = 89.5, flat with last read), 
  • We get productivity at 8:30 am EST (F = -4.3%, last read was -7.3%),
  • We get unit labor costs at 8:30 am EST (F = 9.3%, last read was 12.6%).
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – HPK, GOEV, 2Q22 Calendar, CRK
  4. Odds & Ends

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08
Aug

Monday Morning – Last Big Week of Earnings

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Housekeeping Watch  

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    • You can receive an email notification each time we post by entering your email address in the space at left. 

    In today's post please find:

    • The Week That Was,
    • The Five Things,
    • and some other odds and ends.

    In case you missed The Wrap.

    Eco Data Watch: 

    • We get NY Fed 3 year inflation expectations at 11 am EST (no forecast, last read was 3.6%).

    The Week Ahead: 

    • Tuesday - NFIB small business, productivity, labor costs, EIA STEO, 
    • Wednesday - CPI, wholesale inventories, federal budget, EIA Oil Inventories, 
    • Thursday - Jobless claims, PPI, EIA Natural Gas Storage,
    • Friday - Import price index, consumer sentiment, UMich 5 year inflation expectations

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watch
    3. The Week That Was
    4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, Calendar, EE
    5. Odds & Ends

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    06
    Aug

    Wrap – Week Ended 08/05/22

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    Mixed bag of a week with the ZLT off 2.8% on the week on the heels of last week's near 19% rally. The traditional energy benchmarks, as noted in the table below, ranged from down 4.6% (the gassy XNG) to down 6.9% (the service names of the OIH), largely moving with the retreat in oil.  We find notable that while near month futures sagged heavily during the week, the strip was more resilient as noted here:

    Meanwhile, the renewables segment as represented by the TAN and FAN ETF's in the Wrap table below showed an indifferent week for performance as the IRA bill moved through the process. Our modest renewables wedge however was definitely up on the week with a new all time high scored for our largest holding in the space, ENPH, and good moves for solar, wind, and battery/EV tied names.

    Earnings season is progressing with largely better than expected results. We're through 54 reports and have another 17 to go, most of them in the coming week. Please see the Calendar link for details.

    Free Stuff Last Week:

    Holdings Watch:

    • We initiated and added to a position in oily Permian FANG and added to our position in oil Eagle Ford player MGY.
    • The Blotter is updated 

    A few notables from The Wrap table below.

    • Active frac spreads hit a new record on 7/29 and then backed off that peak again with this Friday's report. Frac in the U.S. is extremely tight. 2Q22 calls have suggest 6 month or greater lead times for new spreads from the decision date, moves by operators to lock in next year's programs much earlier than usual, and a disciplined approach by frac companies to largely retire and replace horsepower rather than make a move at this stage in the cycle on market share.   This should result in modest capacity growth in 2023, the common thought being 10%, and a good environment for further net pricing gains.
    • Crack spreads remain resilient.
    • Crude stocks are down 3% on the year. SPR stocks are down 24%.

    Have a great weekend,

    Z

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    05
    Aug

    T.G.I.F.

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    Renewables Market Sentiment:  Senator Sinema on board. IRA bill process to move forward weekend. 

    Housekeeping Watch:  Are we using the correct email for you?  If you're not getting ZBLAST's or are getting them at the wrong address contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com

    In today's post please find:

    • the natural gas review (bigger than expected build, balancing out with last week's smaller than expected one; next week we expect a 50% larger build),
    • comments on the STEM quarter,
    • comments on the SWN quarter,
    • and some other odds and ends.

    Ecodata Watch:

    • We get Nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 am EST (F = 258,000, last month was 372,000),
    • We get the unemployment rate at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.6%, flat with last month),
    • We get average hourly earnings at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, flat with last month).

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watc​h - ST natural gas supply demand balance sheet, NGL prices,
    3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
    4. Stuff We Care About Today - SWN, STEM, USWS, 2Q22 Calendar update
    5. Odds & Ends

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    04
    Aug

    Thursday Morning – Earnings Avalanche

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    Housekeeping Watch:  

    • Due to a congested call schedule our comments today may be more brief than usual. If something is not clear please ask. 

    In today's post please find:

    • the oil inventory review,
    • the natural gas preview,
    • comments several reporting owned and or names of interest,
    • and some other odds and ends. 

    Ecodata Watch:

    • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 260,000, last read was 256,000),
    • We get trade deficit at 8:30 am EST (F = -$80 B, last read was -$85.5 B),
    • We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watc​h
    3. Oil Inventory Review 
    4. Stuff We Care About Today - TPIC, CIVI, NFE, CPE, CHRD, CEIX, COP (TBA), 2Q22 Calendar Update
    5. Odds & Ends

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