29
Nov

Tuesday Morning – BRY, VWDRY

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Housekeeping Watch:  If you sent us an email and didn't get a response back pretty much immediately it likely was routed to spam. We get A LOT of spam and sometimes miss those notifications. If you think this is the case text us using the contact number on the contact page.

In today's post please find:

  • the very early read on natural gas inventories (early consensus is bigger than we expected),
  • requested comments and a cheat sheet update for BRY,
  • VWDRY announces 4th large preferred provider win in the last 3 months (1.3 GW this time and floating, total for the last 4 deals now 5.1 GW),
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Case-Shiller home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was -9.8%),
  • We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST (F = 100.0, last read was 102.5), 
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – BRY, VWDRY
  4. Odds & Ends

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28
Nov

Monday Morning

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Housekeeping Watch  

    • If you have not used the pull down menu at left, select categories, please try it out. Tickers and topics there take you to post with the most recent all the way back to the first tag by us.
    • You can use the find function on your browser to quickly page through posts to find what you are looking for. 
    • Can't find something?  Ask us in comments. There's a lot here but we can generally track things down.  

    In today's post please find:

    • The Week That Was,
    • The Five Things,
    • and some other odds and ends.

    In case you missed The Wrap.

    Eco Data Watch: 

    • No economic releases scheduled. 

    The Week Ahead: 

    • Tuesday - Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, 
    • Wednesday - ADP employment, 3Q GDP revision, Chicago PMI, job openings/quits, pending home sales, Beige Book, EIA Oil Inventories
    • Thursday - Jobless claims, PCE price index, S&P manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, car sales, EIA Natural Gas Storage,
    • Friday - Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings. 

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watch
    3. The Week That Was
    4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things
    5. Odds & Ends

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    26
    Nov

    Wrap – Week Ended 11/25/22

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    The ZLT was up 2.7% on the holiday shortened and oil-volatile week.   As usual Thanksgiving week was light in terms of company news flow and heavy in terms of geo-political drama. The rough sketches of the G7 oil and EU natural gas price caps gained a little more clarity (both unlikely to limit flows) along with a rumor of higher OPEC+ production drove commodity price volatility. If OPEC+ was unlikely to raise quotas on December 4th they are even less likely to do so now and can point to rising China Covid cases and re-tightened lock downs as reasoning to further tighten supply.

    Free Stuff Last Week:

    Holdings Watch:

    Have a good weekend,

    Z

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    25
    Nov

    Thursday and Friday – Happy Thanksgiving

     

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    Happy Holidays - We will be in and out of pocket for today's short session. If you have questions please ask them and we will address them as family time permits. 

    In today's post please find:

    • the oil inventory review (positive side of neutral),
    • the natural gas review (smaller than Street expected withdrawal (bigger than our own rough number) but also large for first pull of the season),
    • and some other odds and ends. 

    Ecodata Watch:

    • No economic data release is scheduled Thursday or Friday.
    • US markets will close at 1 pm EST.

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watc​h
    3. Oil Inventory Review 
    4. Stuff We Care About Today - Gassy Players Update
    5. Odds & Ends

     

    Holdings Watch:   

    ZLT

    Commodity Watch:

    Crude oil fell $3.01 to close at $77.94 Wednesday, reversing lower on thoughts of just how threadbare the proposed G7 cap is as well as on spiking Covid cases in China. We viewed the EIA weekly as positive side of neutral with a larger than expected crude draw coming on flat production, higher throughput, and despite a big pop in imports. We don't see imports as moving sustainably higher and they are at the low end of the range on a net basis now. We do see this kind of report as indicative of the short/medium term as high throughput is matched against a withering SPR release into year end.  This morning oil is trading up $1.50+ early. 

     

    Natural gas rallied $0.529 (7.8% and > 16% in the last 3 sessions) to close at $7.308 on Wednesday. The first withdrawal of the season was large relative to historical first builds and above our expectations but below consensus. Traders shrugged off the "miss" due to expectations of a broad swath of cold air in the U.S. in early December while also watching EU gas prices. We expect a smaller draw next week but also see storage as having peaked at 3,644 Bcf in the prior report which exactly ties the 2021 peak (please see the Natural Gas Storage Review section below). This morning gas is trading up slightly. 

     

    Oil Inventory Review

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    Natural Gas Storage Review 

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    Stuff We Care About Today

    Gassy Players Update - this post has been archived under "Gassy" for ease of access using the pull down menu at upper left. 

    Other Stuff

    • Look for requested and owned name updates next week.

    Odds and Ends

    Analyst Watch:

    • TBA in comments

    23
    Nov

    Wednesday Morning – Dueling Inventory Reports, MGY

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    Housekeeping Watch: If we don't speak to you in the comments section we want to say Thank You for being here and we hope that you and yours have a happy and healthy Thanksgiving.   Also we will post on Friday's short session with both the EIA oil inventory and natural gas slide shows and some other stuff.  Be well. 

    In today's post please find:

    • the oil inventory preview (fairly benign looking report expected),
    • the natural gas inventory preview (consensus now looking for a much larger pull from storage),
    • comments and a cheat sheet update for Eagle Ford player MGY,
    • and some other odds and ends.

    Ecodata Watch:

    • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 225,000, last read was 222,000)
    • We get durable goods at 8:30 am (F = 0.5%, last read was 0.4%), 
    • We get manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am EST (F = 50.0, last read was 50.4), 
    • We get services PMI at at 9:45 am EST (F = 48.0, last read was 47.8), 
    • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 54,9, last read was 54.7),
    • We get UMich 5-year inflation at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 3.0%), 
    • We get new home sales at 10 am EST (F = 570,000, last read was 603,000),
    • We get EIA Oil Inventories at 10:30 am EST, 
    • We get EIA Natural Gas Storage at 12 pm EST,
    • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST. 

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
    3. Stuff We Care About Today - MGY, VWDRY/TPIC
    4. Odds & Ends

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