26
Feb

Monday Morning

.

In today's post please find:

  • The Week That Was,
  • 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar, 
  • and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap

Eco Data Watch: 

  • We get New home sale at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 664,000).

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Durable-goods, S&P Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, 
  • Wednesday - GDP 4Q revision, Chicago PMI, EIA Oil Inventories
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, persoinal income, personal income, PCE, pending home sales, EIA Natural Gas Storage,
  • Friday - No economic data release scheduled but 4 Fed heads speaking. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar 
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


24
Feb

Wrap – Week Ended 2/23/24

.

We were flat on the week last week after the prior week's 8+% bump higher and the portfolio is down 2% on the year. A few thoughts as we approach the 7th inning stretch of the 4Q23 energy earnings season. These are largely not ordered. 

  • Natural gas sentiment is overly weak.
    • Storage remains in surplus and spring end of season thoughts have drifted above 2 Tcf.
    • Production is in plateau.
    • Supply (production less net exports) is in plateau and about to be in plateau minus. 
    • Power burn is more resilient than expected. Industrial is too. Heating load is about to matter a whole lot less. 
    • The non commercial short position jumped bigly last week.
    • There has been a from "maintenance mode" to "maintenance mode minus" 
  • U.S. Oily names are still greatly preferred among upstream investors 
    • This is unlikely to change this year. 
    • There appears to be some consensus building that OPEC+ will roll voluntary curtailments through 2Q. 
    • Cracks are supportive of a shallow spring maintenance season. 
    • Inventories are not overstored and distillates are again back into meaningful deficit.
    • Net imports to the U.S. remain bottom of barrel. 
    • Many large cap E&Ps are looking to hold oil volumes flat to 4Q23 levels this year.
    • We, like many, expect more consolidation among the large and smid cap players.
      • We were please that Bakken player CHRD picked off ERF this week and not DVN.
      • We expect other Rockies consolidation later this year.  
    • US oil production growth will be tepid in 2024. 
  • U.S. Oil Service
    • Doom is overdone.
    • Oil rig count is now starting to rise - this was expected and is the normal seasonal rebound if a little under our end of year thoughts. 
    • The active frac spread count is also rising. Also expected and a little ahead of our end of 2023 thoughts. 
    • Discipline among rig and frac spread operators appears to be universal. 
    • See our reviews of LBRT and PTEN 4Q23 reports. 
    • A move by gassy players, led by CHK and likely by SWN as well and somewhat by CTRA to bank TIL wells and not just DUC wells is good for service names and good for sand names. 

We are through 46 names that we own or pay attention to of the 4Q season and have 30 to go. Next week is the season peak with 22 names reporting on top of each other. Investors are bored. Analysts are tired. We remain constructive for oil and have been adding to oily, gassy, and select oil service names. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post as the weather is spring like here and not raining for the first time in recent memory. 

Questions about the site may be directed to zmanalpha@gmail.com 

Or just check out the Membership Options tab at left to take a Test Drive. 

Have a good weekend,

Z.

 

 


23
Feb

T.G.I.F.

.

Housekeeping Watch:  Are we using the correct email for you?  If you're not getting ZBLAST's or are getting them at the wrong address contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com

In today's post please find:

  • the natural gas storage slide show,
  • the natural gas supply / demand update, 
  • the oil inventory slide show,
  • comments on several more 4Q23 reports, 
  • 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release scheduled. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - ST natural gas supply demand balance sheet, NGL prices,
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - TPIC, SWN, OII, CTRA, 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


22
Feb

Thursday Morning – More Earnings

.

Housekeeping Watch:

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview, 
  • the natural gas inventory preview,
  • comments on 4Q23 reports from 4 more owned and/or names of interest (VTLE, RRC, CHRD, NOVA),
  • CHRD and ERF to merge,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 216,000; last read was 212,000),
  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 3.97 mm; last read was 3.8 mm),
  • We get the EIA natural gas storage report at 10:30 am EST.
  • We get the EIA natural gas storage report at 11:00 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil inventory and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - VTLE, RRC, CHRD Acquires ERF, CHRD, NOVA, 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar 
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


21
Feb

Wednesday Morning – Earnings Avalanche

 

.

Housekeeping Watch:  Today is a busy earnings day. Some of our comments may be more brief than usual. If something is not clear please ask about it in the comments section. 

In today's post please find:

  • the early read on natural gas inventories,
  • 4Q23 comments on6 names that reported overnight.
    • Probably the biggest news item of the day will come from the CHk decision to trim rigs and frac spreads and severely cut 2024 natural gas volume guidance in the face of the weak gas strip.  Gas futures popped last night shortly after the CHK press release. 
    • We also note FANG is guiding 2024 oil only production to a level that is flat with 4Q23 as they beat the discipline drum a little harder.
  • 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the January Fed minutes at 2 pm EST.
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – CHK, SEDG, PUMP, FANG, VNOM, MTDR, NXT, 4Q23 Energy Earnings Calendar
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »

Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette

s2Member®