22
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/21/11

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Ho hum opening for 3Q earnings, see the weekly earnings wrap (HAL, BAS, NFX, CLB, SLB, NE, MMR) in this coming Monday's post.

Look for the week ahead in energy earnings in the Monday post as well.

The ZLT Portfolio is updated, click here. We sold the KOG trading position taken 2 weeks ago at $3.80 for $5.97 and added to positions in a few other Bakken names (see below) but are long and mostly not trading the European influenced market but investing patiently at present.

This week's delayed free pieces:

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And read us on Seeking Alpha, search Zman's Energy Brain or Steve Zachritz

ZEB M&A Contest: Congrats to Ram for winning a free year of ZEB for his pick of BEXP in the M&A Contest. The contest rolls on through year end. You can always see the current picks on the Calendar tab or here:


Please see Wrap comments on the data below in the Monday post.


14 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 10/21/11”

  1. 1
    elduque Says:

    From NFX conference call

    ” we’re going to chase margin expansion, and then we’re going to continue to drive oil in doing that. We’re going to chase cash flow growth, again driven by oil. And we’ll do both of those in preference to
    absolute production growth. And I think that’s a strong statement, and it’s a position that we believe as a
    leadership team is the right thing for Newfield, and we think it’s going to position us well in 2012 forward.”

    I am gradually getting an understanding of what to use for a pricing model. It certainly is multi-facetted.

    The market is in some cases very forward thinking and others very backward. At all times don’t over promise and then not deliver to those expectations.

    The market’s reaction to NFX is just plain dumb, stupid, etc.

    Here is a company that because they have “multiple” asset plays, has the luxury of moving the pieces to that area which has the highest margins. In reading the last 3 quarterly transcripts, this is something that they have stated in all of them. I guess I would be very disappointed if they are unable to improve margins next year, but I assume so would management. Cash flow per share has been running about $3 a quarter, net asset value is significantly higher and for it to trade at such a large discount to its peer group is amazing to me. I can understand the street being so short sighted but some of the selling had to come from major institutions. I guess when you have only so much money, you are not content to wait for 6 months.

    Anyhow, after really spending some time I am quite happy to sit with an overly large position in the name at this price. Should buy more and will probably do so for day trades.

  2. 2
    Justin Says:

    Kudos Edl. Intelligent conviction increases the probability of long term success.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Agreed.

  4. 4
    tomdavis12 Says:

    EOG = Papa in Barron’s. Mostly about Papa and his backround & retirement.

  5. 5
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Your writeup on TPLM has the charts all blurry. Can not read. Is that on purpose?

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 5 – no, sorry about that, seems to be something in the pickup from SA. If you click the individual charts they should work.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Futures a touch soft early Sunday evening as little new has come out of Europe. Probably a meaningless comment but the link is worth having around

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

    Crude not really paying attention at the moment:
    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    SSN operations update on the tape

    Defender now scheduled to be fracced on November 7

    Spirit of America well (the conventional test in Goshen County) – stuck bit just above first target, preparing to sidetrack the well.

    SSN noting that CHK is going to sell the leasehold that it acquired from SSN and SSN will look at buying some of it back. The two CHK wells in which SSN would have participated have been canceled.

    Montana – received first two drilling permits, building a pad for the first well now (Australia II) and contracting a rig now to spud their first Bakken test in Montana by Nov 1, a month ahead of prior expectations.

  9. 9
    Justin Says:

    Z- any impression of CHK backing out?

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Justin – yeah, we knew they previously drilled a couple of dry holes on that acreage. The thought was it was a known low resistivity area. SSN said from the time of the sale that what they kept was arguable better than what they sold. May dent the stock tomorrow a bit but I don’t take too much away from CHK selling as they like homogeneous unconventional plays and the Niobrara is not that.

  11. 11
    Justin Says:

    Thanks Z. Knew the SSN update was coming so monitoring the board while holding interns and watching W. Series. Checked our other Australia friend and they posted an update late Fri. They logged some Niobrara IP’s.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Thanks, will check out the SDCJF notes, had not seen.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Crude knocking about $88 as S&P futs come off lows … as Asia rises on “hopes” that Europe is getting some kind of a plan together.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Tropical Storm Rina forms south of the Yucatan.

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