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Oct
Wrap – Week Ended 09/30/11 (In Progress)
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The less dire China scenario:
http://www.businessinsider.com/stephen-roach-china-ghost-cities-2011-10
October 1st, 2011 at 8:17 amTo go along with #1…Just released;
October 1st, 2011 at 10:02 amChina Sep PMI 51.2 vs. StreetAccount consensus 51.5 and 50.9 in Aug
•New Orders 51.3 vs. 51.1 in Aug
•Output 52.7 vs. 52.3
•Export Orders 50.9 vs. 48.3
Just finished Michael Lewis’s newest book “Boomerang” which deals with the sovereign debt crisis. Recommended.
October 1st, 2011 at 10:46 amHere’s the latest from Ambrose Pritchard
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100012332/nein-nein-nein-and-the-death-of-eu-fiscal-union/
Re #1 Flip side from Chanos
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/chanos-calls-china-syndrome/article2183539/singlepage/#articlecontent
October 1st, 2011 at 11:04 amDecent article about Bakken, Hamm, CLR-noteworthy is Hamm’s account of Obama’s attitude toward oil and gas and his “optimism” about green energy sources.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576602524023932438.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
October 1st, 2011 at 11:26 amNegative article on WPRT in Barron’s this week-prob take a hit Monday-analyst from a Toronto bank was all over the lack of earnings, overly optimistic future plans, etc.
Is this thing on?
October 2nd, 2011 at 5:37 pmre 6 – thanks, been waiting for a pullback there, we shall see if tomorrow gets it.
Greek austerity plan came up short, futures off.
October 2nd, 2011 at 5:39 pmCrude trading $78.30 after Greek news hit.
October 2nd, 2011 at 6:05 pmHomework- What I’ve noticed so far.
Some reliable studies that I use are beginning to suggest a trade-able low next week if the market moves lower. The question of course is at what level.I’ll be watching the for the market’s reaction as we test lower. Demand and Ease of Movement do not support a bounce from Friday’s closing level.
1. Friday confirmed a Daily DeMark Sequential Exhaustion pattern on the SPY. (TD13)
October 2nd, 2011 at 6:06 pm2. IF SPY < 200 MA, Closes at a 10 day low and closes below the 10 Day Ma for 10 days in a row. Probability strongly favors upside versus continued downside .75% winners/4.22 Profit Factor since 1193. As of tonight SPY < 200 Ma, 8 days below 10 Day Ma and a close below 113.30 would be a 10 Day low. Getting stretched here in time and price but not quite….
3. 10 Day price range is approaching area where upside reversals happen more often than not.
4. Option volatility levels are consistent with reversals,though less extreme than the previous tests of the current range lows.
5. Breadth measurements are mixed but another day or two of selling will swing the majority to oversold status.
Thanks Zorg
October 2nd, 2011 at 6:07 pmWorking up XEC for Robert, Catalyst List Part III probably for Tuesday, we have Johnson Rice this week, lot more end of the quarter type news comments out of that.
Energy Earnings don’t kick off until 3rd week of the month with Service, and E&Ps really get going around month end.
October 2nd, 2011 at 6:08 pmRe Economic Cycle Research Institute’s call last week
October 2nd, 2011 at 7:03 pmhttp://abnormalreturns.com/a-recession-review/
#9…To be clear..to me a “trade-able” bounce means an expansion upward into a securities ten day price range that closes above it’s 10 day ma….In a bull market that can translate into a much bigger bounce. In a bear market I don’t expect much beyond that > 10 day MA close.
October 2nd, 2011 at 7:13 pmSSN – minor update on the tape, Defender prepping for frac late this month, Spirit of America (conventional test) now drilling.
October 2nd, 2011 at 8:52 pm