Wrap – Week Ended 09/30/11 (In Progress)

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14 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 09/30/11 (In Progress)”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    The less dire China scenario:


  2. 2
    john11 Says:

    To go along with #1…Just released;
    China Sep PMI 51.2 vs. StreetAccount consensus 51.5 and 50.9 in Aug
    •New Orders 51.3 vs. 51.1 in Aug
    •Output 52.7 vs. 52.3
    •Export Orders 50.9 vs. 48.3

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Just finished Michael Lewis’s newest book “Boomerang” which deals with the sovereign debt crisis. Recommended.
    Here’s the latest from Ambrose Pritchard

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Re #1 Flip side from Chanos


  5. 5
    choices Says:

    Decent article about Bakken, Hamm, CLR-noteworthy is Hamm’s account of Obama’s attitude toward oil and gas and his “optimism” about green energy sources.


  6. 6
    choices Says:

    Negative article on WPRT in Barron’s this week-prob take a hit Monday-analyst from a Toronto bank was all over the lack of earnings, overly optimistic future plans, etc.

    Is this thing on?

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 6 – thanks, been waiting for a pullback there, we shall see if tomorrow gets it.

    Greek austerity plan came up short, futures off.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Crude trading $78.30 after Greek news hit.

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    Homework- What I’ve noticed so far.
    Some reliable studies that I use are beginning to suggest a trade-able low next week if the market moves lower. The question of course is at what level.I’ll be watching the for the market’s reaction as we test lower. Demand and Ease of Movement do not support a bounce from Friday’s closing level.

    1. Friday confirmed a Daily DeMark Sequential Exhaustion pattern on the SPY. (TD13)
    2. IF SPY < 200 MA, Closes at a 10 day low and closes below the 10 Day Ma for 10 days in a row. Probability strongly favors upside versus continued downside .75% winners/4.22 Profit Factor since 1193. As of tonight SPY < 200 Ma, 8 days below 10 Day Ma and a close below 113.30 would be a 10 Day low. Getting stretched here in time and price but not quite….
    3. 10 Day price range is approaching area where upside reversals happen more often than not.
    4. Option volatility levels are consistent with reversals,though less extreme than the previous tests of the current range lows.
    5. Breadth measurements are mixed but another day or two of selling will swing the majority to oversold status.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Working up XEC for Robert, Catalyst List Part III probably for Tuesday, we have Johnson Rice this week, lot more end of the quarter type news comments out of that.

    Energy Earnings don’t kick off until 3rd week of the month with Service, and E&Ps really get going around month end.

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    Re Economic Cycle Research Institute’s call last week

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    #9…To be clear..to me a “trade-able” bounce means an expansion upward into a securities ten day price range that closes above it’s 10 day ma….In a bull market that can translate into a much bigger bounce. In a bear market I don’t expect much beyond that > 10 day MA close.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    SSN – minor update on the tape, Defender prepping for frac late this month, Spirit of America (conventional test) now drilling.

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