12
May

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market trying to settle down into something that resembles a quiet, orderly trading session. Eco data today (Trade and budget balances) aren't normally big market movers so that leaves jobless claims tomorrow and retail sales and consumer sentiment on Friday as the week's remaining points of interest. Everyone seems to be buying gold. In energy land, the flow of news is down to a trickle as 1Q earnings come to an end. I'll have the E&P Orange Charts out early next week but today I've included the OIH multiples in the Stuff section for a change of pace and because again, it's good to know where valuations stand post quarter.


In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $8,900
  • 84% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • None

 

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $25,700
  • 78% Cash

  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • XEC - Sold (10) May $65 Calls for $5.10, up 319%,  just short of the offer on a very wide spread with the stock at $69.45.
    • HAL – Added (50) May $31 Calls for $0.20 with the stock at $28.40.

    • CAM – Added (10) May $37.50 Calls for 1.15 with the stock at 36.40.  Everything I am gleaning from my readings and from testimony out today puts these two (HAL and CAM) out of the blame spotlight for the tragedy in the Gulf.

    • Sold the 1,000 KOG shares for $3.74, up 3%. I took these during the market discombobulation last Thursday in an effort to catch a falling knife in that fast market and while I have no problem holding the name in the ZLT, I don't really want things to hang out for long periods in the ZIM (inefficient markets) portfolio.

Commodity Watch:

 

Crude oil dipped $0.43 to close at $76.37 yesterday.  After the close, the API released slightly bullish report (see below) which contained an expected reversal in crude imports and a smaller than expected crude build. This morning crude is trading slightly lower.

  • IEA Cuts Crude Demand Forecast: A day after OPEC raised it's 2010 view of demand growth by 50,000 bopd, IEA cut their forecast by a like amount, but their growth figure is still well ahead of the Cartel's 0.95 mm bopd growth figure, with IEA looking for a 1.62 mm bopd bump over last year.

Natural gas fell 0.04  to close the day at $4.13 yesterday. Traders and analysts are looking for the first triple digit injection of the season tomorrow which is a bit early compared to normal. This morning gas is trading up a couple of pennies. 

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Street is at 102 BCF injection for tomorrow’s report.

  • Last Week: 83 Bcf Injection
  • Last Year: 94 Bcf  Injection
  • 5 Year Average: 88 Bcf  Injection
  • 10 year Hi: 103 Bcf  Injection
  • 10 year Low: 11 Bcf  Injection

 

Oil Inventory Preview


API Watch: 

  • Crude: UP 0.362 mm barrels
  • Gasoline: DOWN 0.902 mm barrels
  • Distillates: UP 0.940 mm barrels


Stuff We Care About Today


 

Quick Thoughts Following Quarter End:

  1. Group remains cheap on 2011 earnings which are what matter right now.
  2. Largely 2012 numbers are higher than 2011.
  3. Anyone with exposure and a hint of liability to the spill are going to trade spottily for the next several weeks. I'm not a lawyer and I don't play one on the internet but RIG liability looks too tough to call at this point.  HAL and CAM, from what I can tell, look like they have a better shot of getting off the hook as does SII.  
  4. Aside from the spill, North America service is not retracting like many thought earlier this year, good news for HAL, BHI, NBR and more but those will be my main focus as the year plays out.
  5. International improving faster than expected, also good for HAL and SLB.
  6. CLB and CRR will continue to be in high demand. I think the likelihood of CLB getting taken out in the near term has probably dimmed a bit as HAL has said they are off the official hunt for the time being and they probably have their hands full at the moment digesting recent acquisitions and fending off senatorial investigations.

 

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • APC - Cut to Perform at Opco
  • BPZ - Raised to Hold at Jefferies
  • TRGL - Target upped from $9.75 to $13, rating Overweight at Thomas Weisel

125 Responses to “Wednesday Morning”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    JB – Thanks a lot for the comments last night.

  2. 2
    jat Says:

    fyi, yesterday apparently RIG stated that WFT ran the casing for Macondo. just as much under BP’s direction as anything else, but that’s something new that we didn’t know…

  3. 3
    choices Says:

    The next set of PIIGS:

    http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/st_STATEBUDGET100414_20100414.html

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    XAC Strategist #1… with today’s comment

    http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=136762&ID2=415557477&ssid=1&directory=6571&bm=0&filename=05.12.10_A_Bullish_Sign_And_a_Bearish_Warning.pdf

  5. 5
    choices Says:

    jat, Z, I’m starting to wonder if there is something else out there on APC. HAL and RIG were green yesterday and APC could not get out of its own way. Have not seen the Oppenheimer report on the downgrade.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    APC — Oppenheimer (Fadel Gheit) has had an “outperform” on APC since Nov’08… went to a “mrkt perform” today.

  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit Market rally this morning. Think it’s a bit of a bear squeeze, so we shall see if it holds. But, eco-data is just not pointing to a repeat of Fall 2008.

    IG -2 7/8bps… so almost 3 basis points tighter (better)

    HY +3/4pts… so almost a point higher (better)

    Cash TED Spread a tad wider this morning, as 3-mo LIBOR reset a tad higher… +27.5 bps

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CDS Trading desk saying that over the last 2 wks, it has paid to fade the rally and that the more sensitive High Yield Index is up “more than it should be, with stock futs up 5.” So, will be closely watching this HY index this a.m.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Gheit is smart, pretty conservative analyst.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Gheit has been around, basically, forever. And agree with your comment.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Oil off 30 cents, expecting a quiet session until the numbers, normal pre number release pullback starting at the top of the hour.

    CXPO with earnings out, will review and circle back, CC at 10:30 EST.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    CAM acting more and more like coast is clear for them, shot out of a gun this morning and past yesterday’s highs. TPH commenting on the testimony yesterday and highlighting that RIG saying there was no design flaw with the BOP playing well with the market.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    BOP – yes he has, he has an excellent grasp of the macro on oil and natural gas and knows his companies.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the credit comments BOP, much appreciated.

  15. 15
    elduque Says:

    z- You do one heck of a lot work. How do you do it all? Much appreciated.

  16. 16
    elduque Says:

    BDI has been going up steadily now for a week at 3888.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    CXPO nutshell: numbers actually look OK. Lots of hurry up and wait in the ops update though with a number of wells drilled or drilling but not completed. Their first Eagle Ford test doesn’t happen until Q4 which is later than I last thought. They have a couple of things brewing in east Texas that could move the stock as they are in good real estate in San Augustine county for recent Bossier completions and /or Haynesville but otherwise the stock has the feel of continued dead money to it. The name remains awfully cheap on P/CF but I’m not sure I buy the denominator there and will listen to the call and continue to watch the name for a further pullback.

  18. 18
    elijahwc Says:

    Tom Marsico comments on where he believes day rates are going.

    Transocean’s Biggest Investor Dumps Stock After Fatal Rig Blast

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-12/transocean-s-biggest-investor-dumps-stock-after-fatal-rig-blast.html

  19. 19
    baylor3217 Says:

    Rig and Hal shot out of a gun

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Eld – thanks.

    Re BDI – I’m sorting of warming up to the thought drybulkers again, I have only been looking at the index on the weekends of late (when I fill in the number for the wrap). I plan on spending some time listening to call replays, just Bill’s favorites though (DSX and who else Bill? Eagle?)

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Natural gas looking pretty perky this morning, could be Bill’s cold front in New England. We went from using heat on Monday to constant AC today in the South.

    BP only name in the CHOBR not working today.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    FST waking up. That was a good quarter, overlooked by the market due to Greece. Looks like its having trouble getting back up through its 50 day sma but JB had positive things to say about it last night.

    JB ~ “FST, still holding a P&F buy signal, in X’s, holding that lower trendline on the ascending wedge at the 100 day SMA…somewhat stagnant today, but FST really held up nicely…”

  23. 23
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Snow in Denver!

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    23 = Nice.

    PETD running again, it was a good quarter, Niobrara comments seem like July to me (analyst meeting), here’s to a pullback on that name.

    EOG up double what it lost yesterday, I’m guessing some analyst downgraded the name but I didn’t see it.

    Thanks to whoever pushed me to notice HAL waking up yesterday.

  25. 25
    Gtinvest Says:

    Texws6 – I have 2 inches in my yard with snow on the trees! Really very beautiful.

  26. 26
    baylor3217 Says:

    Eog rockin! What’s going on here. Market acting like all is rose and puppies

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Re 26. Good Question. GT and Eli both sent me comments on draft legislation due out I think today regarding the climate bill which now apparently has natural gas transportation incentives in it.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    BEXP climbing back higher and quickly. All moves moot pre oil numbers but if the numbers do come in similar to API’s last night look for the group to extend.

  29. 29
    jat Says:

    anyone else listening to this testimony pt 2? waxman made some introductory comments regarding the results of the two pressure tests, I didn’t catch the details.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Jat – missed it too, listening on cspan3 now, sounds like a BP bashfest.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    EIA oil inventory report

    Crude up 10 cents just prior

    Inventories:
    Crude up 1.9 mm barrels
    Gasoline down 2.8 mm barrels
    Distillates up 1.4 mm barrels

    Demand
    Gasoline – down slightly from last week
    Distillates – IMPORTANTLY, up for a send week at the 3,890 mm bpd level.

    more bullish than bearish … especially with the headline big draw on gasoline but also for that distillate demand number.

    Oil up 50 cents

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Will listen to CXPO later, Senate talking about CAM now.

  33. 33
    jat Says:

    wow this BOP stuff sounds great for CAM

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Senator saying how can a device that has 260 failure modes (the BOP) be considered fail safe. Oh, what a perfect world these DC types must live in.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Jat, I thought so too until I heard and wrote 34, now not so sure.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    CAM was not at the meeting yesterday but they will be talking about their BOP today. It can’t hurt their case that BP and RIG made substantial modifications to the BOP in 2005.

  37. 37
    choices Says:

    SD &ARD up >4%

  38. 38
    choices Says:

    C-Span:Reps asking where in the hell are the regulators, Interior, MMS people-legitimate question.

  39. 39
    RMD Says:

    CXPO call is working on a record number of “you knows”.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Re 38, yeah, it’s a good question. Hopefully some day they will stop grandstanding and let the companies actually speak.

    RMD – thanks for the heads up, I will read the transcript then.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    AEZ legging up today on the well announcement yesterday. I’ll have Bakken multiples and acreage of the players in the post tomorrow. Earnings should be this week.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Senator now saying the cement job was the problem. Everyone is an expert. That would be HAL.

    Wyoming, any new thoughts on this stuff?

  43. 43
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Cement job COULD have been the problem, anytime you pump a nitrified slurry expect SOME challenges…

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Cushing stocks at a new record high 37 mm barrels. That will likely blunt crude rallies until we see it roll over.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    TEX – sure, I agree, this senator just sounded like she had the answer and it was HAL. I know that we don’t know yet what caused it so I’m surprised (LOL) that she does.

    White House proposing 1 cent tax per barrel for oil spill response fund.

  46. 46
    AAA Says:

    Crude futures just hit an air pocket and dropped$.70 in a couple of minutes.

  47. 47
    Dman Says:

    #34

    How many failure modes does Congress have? Oh let me count the modes…no wait, I haven’t got time to do a full count. but lets see, to start with there’s about 535 Congresscritters, most of whom would have to be considered failure modes. Or failure models, perhaps. So there has to be 400 failure modes right there & that’s without even trying and also imagining (unrealistically) that each defective Critter has only one failure mode.

    Clearly the true number would be pretty huge if we could be bothered counting.

  48. 48
    VTZ Says:

    Silver on the verge of breakout now too. Would be an extremely good sign of confirmation and I could see a quick move to 23 ish. Gold stocks not all playing along yet.

    Given the strong rise in the dollar, the price of oil is actually doing quite well in my opinion.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    AAA – yeah, once we broke $76, it went into whole dollar support mode, so look for a test of $75.

    Stocks well off highs on oil, S&P closing an earlier gap.

    47 = LOL

    Senators still talking, pointing fingers. Someday the companies will get to speak.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    V – Agreed. I think it helps that OPEC keeps inching up their view of demand and since they have actual customers who are increasing their takes I’m apt to believe them. More so because they look conservative next to IEA. I also think it helps to have Saudi say it likes $85 oil here and not the previous range commmented upon of $70 to $80. Sounds like they may curtail later in the year if the price slips much more.

  51. 51
    AAA Says:

    Leaving the political theater aside, i think we can expect a resolution of this that essentially restates national energy policy to make offshore(hopefully deep offshore only) the equivalent of nuclear in terms of risk tolerance. That means essentially zero risk. To most pols, the consequences of another accident are too dire to run even a miniscule risk. We can debate the reasonableness of that decision, but it seems inevitable to me in this climate.

    I think the industry is going to have to come up with a foolproof containment system for deep wells. Clearly reliance on a BOP alone will lack credibility going forward.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    RIG starting testimony now

  53. 53
    RMD Says:

    Are there any boring Austin Chalk cos with shallow production but not the deep rights to the EFS? On EVEP’s conf.call they said they were going to try the industry’s first multi-stage fracs in both the A chalk and the San Juan; if those work, it would make the boring…better.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    RMD – um, how about CHK, SFY should as well, probably quite a few names but would need to dig in to confirm. Reef might know several off the top of his head.

    BP and RIG down more after their opening statements but I don’t think they really said anything new.

    HAL speaking now.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    HAL comments = nothing new

    CAM speaking now

  56. 56
    Patipati Says:

    Z, any thoughts about SPN? They have been building the domes for BP, have a NEW CEO, David D.Dunlap, energizing the company. Heard they are doing a LOT of the cleanup.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Jat, if you’re listening, Waxman is going over problems with the negative pressure test.

  58. 58
    Patipati Says:

    Dunlap formerly with BJ Services.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Pati – apologies, I don’t know them or the company making the disperssent. Will look at after this testimony is done if you like. Maybe Jat or Bird know them.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Sounds like BP knew there was a problem hours in advance of the explosion.

    RIG CEO going to bat for the Blowout preventer, saying you can’t say it’s the BOPs fault without more knowledge of what may be in the BOP.

  61. 61
    Dman Says:

    Z – wasn’t AAA one of your “test” screen names? I thought you were talking to yourself there for a bit 🙂

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    That was AAAtest.

    AAA has been a long time sub.

    Senators all over the BOP at this point, they don’t get the difference between drill pipe and casing. Ugh. It’s not designed to shear casing.

  63. 63
    AAA Says:

    Could sombody explain to me why the containment dome didn’t work? I read that it got ice-like crystals in it. Why?

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    PETD – there’s a chart you have to like on a daily and then a weekly. JB?

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    AAA – It’s very cold down there and hydrate formed in the water inside of the dome. They pumped in methanol to try and keep that from happening but the volume of water was too high and it created slush. The smaller dome will have less water space in it and it is hoped that will work. Should know by Friday.

  66. 66
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TAT — finally able to listen to the conf call replay. It was booooring… but good-boring. Heard what I wanted to hear. Mainly that MM#3 only spoke about the company’s activities in Turkey. This downplays the other (less attractive, imo) countries they have acreage in. Turkey provides oh so many many opportunities… in energy production (both oil and gas… and gas prices are tied to oil prices), pipeline construction, services, and access to additional acreage thru the strategic partnership with TPAO. Frankly, I’m pretty excited about the opportunties in Turkey. They consider “unconventional” exploration to be any well that does not flow copious amounts of hydrocarbons under high natural pressure. So, pretty much anything we are currently doing in the prolific West Texas fields these days would be considered “unconventional” in Turkey. And the Turkish govt is very supportive of and encouraging to any company who is willing to pursue unconventional drilling.

    Sounds like 2Q and summertime operations include spudding and drilling a few wells, scattered over the entire country. TAT has pretty much acquired all the acreage they can in Thrace, so would expect that to be a focus in the near-term. There is already infrastructure in that gas field, so any production would quickly drop to the bottom line. Then there is a nice mix of acidizing current wells and sprinkling in a few exploration wells in SE Turkey, near the Syrian and Iraqi borders. Areas where we already know oil exists in several horizons.

    MM#3 went out of his way NOT to promise he wouldn’t issue equity this year… but he also pointed out that he doesn’t take a salary and is the company’s largest shareholder… and so takes share issuance seriously. I would guess MM#3 also gets to keep the interest income from setting up the $100mm revolver with TAT… but getting LIBOR +250bps on your money is not fastest way to build your income these days (basically getting 2.95% on money lent). So I take his comment about being prudent with equity issuance as sincere.

    TAT should exit this summer with some nice wells and booked reserves under their belt, if their drilling program is able to bear the kind of fruit that these Turkish basins should be able to produce. Too early to model production rates at YE2010 (as a lot of high-impact wells to be drilled)… but these guys have their plate full to the edge with lots of tasty prospects. Makes hanging around TAT an attractive proposition.

    Any other thoughts, z?

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    AAA – it’s this stuff:

    https://www.llnl.gov/str/Durham.html

    If they ever figure out how to produce it then energy needs solved.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Markey, chairman of energy independence and global warming committee (hold laughter here) is a jerk. Nothing constructive at all.

    My CAM and HAL trading pretty well from yesterday. On the HAL, I am likely to reposition on the next upswing as I watched it run up 50% and back to even in the course of these hearings.

    Nicky – any thoughts on levels, we are approaching yesterday’s highs?

  69. 69
    VTZ Says:

    RE 63 – Hydrates are common in many circumstances due to the operating pressure-temperature envelope. They are common in pipelines and precautions are usually taken by controlling the design or the operating pressure-temperature to avoid them.

    They should have been expected (or ate least considered) here because of the high pressure that deep in the water.

  70. 70
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Michael Bodino, was on the TAT call. Let’s hope he and his firm (Global Hunter Securities) can get around to initiating on TAT soon. There is only ONE firm that has an official rating and PT on TAT. Would love to see Michael weigh in on the topic. I think he does good work.

  71. 71
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Yea, when I heard that they had formed hydrates on the dome, I thought to myself, with the thousands of man-hours spend constructing this dome, they didn’t have one engineer looking at the hydrate problem?

    That’s your problem with major E&P’s!

  72. 72
    Nicky Says:

    Hi to all.

    We have to stay under 1170 to see any weakness develop, which would likely take us back towards the 1140 area before heading higher.

    If 1170 is taken out to the upside then we are looking at 1190 plus imo.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    TEX – they were pumping methanol, I guess just not enough. As you know, it isn’t even close to their first deepwater rodeo. I’m betting they are all over it for tophat dome.

    BOP – do you have Bodino’s coverage list?

    Nicky – Thanks much, could break that tomorrow on the claims numbers. This market is trading very Summery.

  74. 74
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Methanol only solves your problem AFTER you form hydrates. I would have figured they would have had steam injection or some other super-heated fluid injected down. We inject 600F degree fluid in steam floods.

  75. 75
    RobBanks Says:

    BOP – thx for the extensive TAT report.

    Z – a recent IPO in the dry bulker arena is BALT. Ships bought at market bottom are coming online and being chartered on the spot market. No debt, a huge positive and impossibly rare for a dry bulker.

    Cash flow will be channeled into a dividend.

    Still early, just something to put on the radar. I own some.

  76. 76
    AAA Says:

    Z, thanks for explanation and link. Very interesting.

  77. 77
    VTZ Says:

    RE 74: Agreed that the methanol was used as mitigation, not prevention.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Thanks much TEX, as always, for the technical explanation, keep it flowing as I’m always learning and forgetting things at the same time.

    ROB – thank you, will add to the list, I see it’s a sub of GNK. Good points too, and glad that its not one of the Greece based shippers. Interesting.

  79. 79
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #73 — Michael B has not officially launched from his new pad. Will be looking forward to his initiation report.

  80. 80
    Dman Says:

    Crude is below 50, 100 & 200 day SMAs, unless my eyes deceive me.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – HAL

    HAL – Added (20) May $30 Calls for $0.495 with the stock at $29. Not hearing anything in today’s Macondo explosion testimony that sounds particularly damning to them. I continue to hold the $31 Calls from yesterday as well and plan on taking profits on those more sensitive calls on the next up turn.

  82. 82
    bill Says:

    75 BALT

    If you like Balt you may want to look at a company on the tanker side .. NAT

    Same model, except ships are tankers, pays out 100 % cashflow, including depr.(balt retains)

    Both companies will continue to issue shares to finance growth.

    Model works like this Dividend lovers will like the 8 % to 10 % payout, bidding up price of stock, company will use strength to issue shares, buy more ships, payout cashflow, and repeat process

  83. 83
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #64 PETD…currently being held up at the confluence of resistance at daily 20/50 SMA…if you dial down to the 30 min which is still up from yesterday, you can see a nice bull flag consolidation a the 200 period SMA on the 30 min…atock wants to go higher…

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB and Bill

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — forgot to say thanks for your commentary last night. I voted.

  86. 86
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #85 BOP…thank you

  87. 87
    elijahwc Says:

    Ouch….MHR Magnum Hunter files for 5.5 mln share common stock offering by selling stockholders (5.05 +0.14)

  88. 88
    VTZ Says:

    Nicky – Do you have a preferred USD count?

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Testimony adjourned for 30 minutes. CAM brought out their expert to be sworn in and again, did a good job of defending the BOP, imo.

    Group continues to perform well with the broad market hanging just under Nicky’s level but having pierced once earlier this afternoon.

    I’m here if anyone has anything but will be quiet as I play 10 key monkey for the Orange Charts.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Best guess that the RIG and CAM statements that the leak in hydraulics was caused by a loose fitting probably going to get them out of hot water with the market as the concern or allegation before had been design flaw. The chair of this committee seems to be going with loose nut at this point.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    V – I shot Nicky an email re your ?

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Bakkens on fire today. EOG, WLL, BEXP, AEZ, KOG, SM, ROSE, NFX definitely outperform the gassier, non Bakken players.

    I still hold KOG in the ZLT, and the only reason I sold out of the ZIM yesterday was discipline. Nothing against KOG even if they are some slow-well-completing dudes.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    JB, do you have CAM resistance at the 200 day at about 39.60 which is just above us now or at the pre spill high around $44. Thanks, will go vote.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    For you new folks, this is JB’s chart site:

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

    The link at upper right called “chart book” brings up a pulldown menu of all his charts. Good stuff.

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG is quite the little WorkHorse. That was a good trade in ZIM. Mrkt wasn’t repricing options during the crash, so grabbing some KOG for the ZIM seemed like the right thing to do.

    I like that the ZIM stays nimble. When you cash your chips quickly, no one can take them away from you.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    BOP – Agreed and while I tend to shy away from gambling analogies with regard to what I do, I do like to think of cashing in as me taking the chips from the poor slob who sold me the option in the first place. Guess that’s a guy thing.

  97. 97
    cargocult Says:

    Thanks for pointing out the pull down menu on the right of JB’s charts!

  98. 98
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #93, Zman, thank you…looking at the daily and P&F chart, I see what you mean, the 200 day SMA will probably slow things down, looking at the P&F chart, $39 printed a new P&F buy signal under trendline support…I think the resistance zone to watch, once we start to trade above the 200 day is pricing at $41-$42, new P&F trendline resistance,interesting chart, I’ll try to get some charts posted later, I’m working on a hand held…

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    JB – I’ve been reading charts since 1991 and appreciate the new level you have added to my game.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    XEC breaking out to new highs.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    … which I only mention because I punted yesterday and yeah it would have been nice to capture today as well but May is getting short in the tooth and I didn’t expect the market to do this and I never kick myself over taking 300+% profits.

    Testimony starting up again.

  102. 102
    Gtinvest Says:

    Here is the link to the new American Power Act . Only 987 pages of it!
    http://kerry.senate.gov/americanpoweract/pdf/APAbill.pdf

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Tophat dome could be in position late Thursday / early Friday.

    Wyoming or TEXW or GMLGDC or Reef, are you guys listening to this testimony? Really sounds like they had a bad negative pressure test and still took the mud out of the well.

  104. 104
    Dman Says:

    Z – old XEC high $74.5 (June 2008). Pretty amazing chart from there to here.

  105. 105
    TEXWS6 Says:

    In class and unable to listen, what happened?

  106. 106
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — #101… it is my job to kick you in the shin, whenever you mention leaving money on the table in the ZIM. Up 30% for a ZIM trade is great. Up 300% is just plain Awesome Possum!

    The richest, self-made people I know ALWAYS “sell too early.”

    You are doing very well with the ZIM. I joined you on the HAL trade (went long the stock). But don’t intend to hold for long. thank you!

  107. 107
    Gtinvest Says:

    Testimony on Cspan 3

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    Waxman is grilling BP over why they removed the mud if the negative pressure test show anomalies. As I gather, there was 1,400 psi in the wellbore and 0 psi at the choke. And after that, they removed the mud and replaced it with saltwater. They never got a chance to put the second cement plug in place.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    re 106. Blushing.

  110. 110
    Dman Says:

    BOP – how about MMR here? Any takers?

  111. 111
    ratberto Says:

    re Macondo: Is it conceivable that they got in a hurry and made mistakes, wanting to have it all “done” while the corporate brass was there? …in other fields I’ve seen people go stupid when the bosses were around, trying to make a good impression…

  112. 112
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — i just don’t like the fact that every time MMR talks about their 2010 production, it is to revise it downward. That, and the fact that they have a capex funding gap. I think they also have some debt capacity, so they don’t necessarily have to issue stock, to fund the gap. Still, the mrkt doesn’t like that uncertainty.

    The upside risk to MMR is that they engage a deep-pocket partner for their Ultra-Deep Program. But it is in their best interest to do that after they have turned on the production tap at DavyJones #1. That said, they are currently drilling DJ#2, so if that isn’t a “show of confidence” to a Deep Pocket Partner, I don’t know what is…. short of a production test, that is.

    So, sticking to my one note tune with EXXI for now. If MMR find a DPPartner, EXXI will jump on the news too. But, I also didn’t think it was a great idea to try to pair trade (long EXXI / short MMR) either. Just too many thing can happen… and you have to get twice as many things right, when you pairs trade.

    Just a few rambling thoughts. Thank you for asking.

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Rat – good question, I’m sure it is possible, though I would not think so on this high a level. But I’m not an “oil man” and I’ll leave the thoughts on that to them.

  114. 114
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Question… does anyone have access to Raymond James reports on EPD and EPB? It would be greatly appreciated!

  115. 115
    TEXWS6 Says:

    I don’t understand why there was 1400psi on the well as you displace the cement with a solid plug and engages in the bottom of teh wellbore, so technically the well should have been dead.

  116. 116
    Dman Says:

    #112 thanks BOP

  117. 117
    Gmlgdc Says:

    http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil…ssf/…/gas_surge_shut_well_just_weeks.html

  118. 118
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Broken link Gm

  119. 119
    Gmlgdc Says:

    http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/gas_surge_shut_well_just_weeks.html

    try this

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    beerthirty

  121. 121
    Gmlgdc Says:

    facinating to me the idiots up on the hill

  122. 122
    choices Says:

    #119-tough, tough account to read-thanks Gmlgdc

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    washbrob, check your email.

  124. 124
    West Says:

    JB , Thanks for all the great work on the charts . I try and vote everyday. I appreciate you putting XEC back on the list. Looks like the channel play is working well on this stock…………… Looking to add more on any pullback. If you look at CXO cc the other day you will note that most of their production is from the Yeso and Bone Springs plays in New Mexico and XEC has a lot of trend acreage all the way down into Texas. Still trying to get additional information on the Avalon Shale but still in the very early stages there.The only company information public was by CHK estimating reserves of 150,000 boepw… All this Permian Basin is layered cake deposition with different formation productive in different areas. Now that the companies are being allowed to commingle the production from the different zones it has made huge areas economical that had previously been marginal, ie. the Sprayberry, Dean, Wolfcamp and now Strawn. The move to get oily is really showing up here in the PB price are picking up and a lot of deals are happening , but it is all private companies so you don’t hear much in the press. There are several companies working the XTO properties to make offers if the XOM deal goes thru, there is a greater than 50% chance XOM will sell. The question is do they do it all together are do they break it up. APA would be my guess if it is a comprehensive total acreage package. The Fund money is flowing into the Companies that have arrangements as working interest partners and also direct financing………So what is the best way to play this move, probably the best pure play in my opinion would be CXO. PXD has more diverse portfolio with a lot of hbp EagleFord acreage. They are hoping to better their estimated # of drilled Wolfberry wells by 20% this year and in 2011. Patterson-UTI has at least 5 drilling rigs in manufacture on constant basis.Other infrastructure issues are starting to show up but so far it is still huming. LGCY is most likely takeover candidate. I like XEC for their PB exposure and all their other programs.

  125. 125
    Jerome Blank Says:

    West, thank you much for the kind comments, I appreciate the votes…XEC is approaching topside daily channel line resistance now at about $72, which over the past year has been a point of at least a shallow pullback, if you look at the weekly, the longer term channel suggests resistance closer to $75, so I’m thinking that if XEC can consolidate and break the daily channel, $75 is the next resistance level… I also added CXO which has a similar technical structure to XEC, an interesting chart, CXO goes back on a P&F buy signal above trendline support on a print of $56…CXO closed at $55.40 yesterday…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

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