Market Sentiment Watch: Busy weekend; Busy week ahead. Greece got a $146 billion bailout with assurances that future rating agency ratings cuts would not impact Greece's ability to provide bonds as collateral. Times square had a bomb scare. The Macondo oil spill approached the coast line of four states and BP said it was allocating a 3rd rig to the coming relief well effort. Efforts to cap the well continue to be unsuccessful but chemical oil disperssents are being injected near the sea floor with some promise. Coffer dam construction has also begun. In China, the People's Bank of China hiked their bank reserve requirement for the 3rd time this year, essentially removing $45 billion in liquidity from their overheated markets. And United and Continental agreed to merger ensuring that airline travel in the U.S. will get just that little bit much worse. In energy land this week we have an onslaught of favorite E&P names reporting (see Earnings calendar below). In the Stuff Section I run through some valuations in the Gulf of Mexico Shelf players list and will mull some adds to that undeservedly beat down group this week. The ecodata front gets busier again this week culminating in the all important monthly payrolls data this Friday.
The Week Ahead:
- Monday 5/3: Personal income (F= 0.3%), consumer spending (F=0.6%), ISM (F=60.1%), vehicle sales (F=11.5mm),
- Tuesday 5/4: Factory orders (F=0.0%), pending home sales,
- Wednesday 5/5: EIA Oil Inventory Report, ADP employment (F=35K), ISM non-manufacturing (F=56.0%).
- Thursday 5/6: EIA Natural Storage Report, jobless claims (F=443K), Productivity (F= 2.8%)
- Friday 5/7: Nonfarm payrolls (F=185K, last read = 162K), unemployment rate (F=9.7%, last read 9.7%)
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Energy Earnings Calendar - Week 3
- Stuff We Care About Today - Shelf Player Multiples/Thoughts
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch:
ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
- $13,400
- 40% Cash (5 positions, EOG, WLL, HK, and 2 in BEXP)
- Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT.
ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $26,700
- 78% Cash (4 positions - BEXP, SLB, and 2 in RRC)
- Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil inched up 1% last week to close at $86.22. The prompt month crude chart now looks like this. The 12 month crude strip is now trading at $90.85, it's highest weekly closing level since October 2008. This morning crude is trading up slightly.
Natural gas retreated 12% last week to close at $3.94 after the EIA released a yawner of a gas supply revision on the same day as a bigger than expected injection into storage. I continue to see gas as range bound. The 12 month strip is still trading at $4.73 which is not too shabby given the recent rapid build in storage back into record highs for this time of year. This morning gas is trading up slightly.
Earnings Watch Calendar
Stuff We Care About Today
Shelf Player Multiples / Thoughts After Macondo Tragedy
Valuation = Cheap
Recent Peak to Trough Performance (4/15/30) (APA announced the acquisition of ME on 4/15 and the group rallied but is now off the following %s from the day before the acquisition)
Key Thoughts:
- The Shelf centric stocks were slammed Friday after White House adviser David Axelrod made a comment regarding "no new drilling in new areas". This was construed by some to simply mean no new drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.
- This is not what the Administration meant, only that it would not approve permits in the recently proposed "frontier" areas. This is a meaningless gesture since no lease sales have been conducted yet and drilling in these areas would follow seismic surveys, leasing rounds, permitting etc and was therefor already years away.
- The Admin is not suspending deepwater or Shelf Gulf of Mexico drilling. Some rigs have had to temporarily halt production due to safety concerns but the impact on future production should limited to delays, not ultimate recovery.
- Two platforms were shut down over the weekend and more could follow as a safety platform but the oil slick is east of the majority of Gulf production.
- Longer term, all offshore players will likely face increased regulatory hurdles and insurance premiums are almost certain to rise.
- Note that APA bought ME in mid April for a $/barrel of flow production ratio of $63,000. The cheapest name in the group on this basis are currently below $45,000 / barrel (EPL and MMR) ... not that any larger players are thinking of buying a Shelf name at this very moment but perhaps they should be.
- In the short run, the Shelf and Deepwater centric operators seem to be getting punished for things that will not impact their operations or cash flow to a significant extent. The caveat would be that D.C. could decide to suspend all drilling or impose other business negative constraints, after all, it's D.C.
Turning to other, non shelf names and items:
- Barron's was suggesting BP is too cheap at this time. I think that's pretty hard to determine and we will see oil washing up on Gulf Coast beaches along with oil covered birds and dead sea life in the coming days so I'd just rather not play that trade, or the RIG one. The lawsuits will continue to mount as well.
- HAL has been asked by Congress to submit data on their activities with regard to the Macondo completions (they were doing the cement job). I'm unlikely to play here either but from what I can gather, the company feels it did nothing out of the ordinary.
- CAM, who made the blow out preventer, has taken a lot of heat and Interior Secretary Salazar said on Sunday that the device was "obviously defective". BP on Sunday also said the BOP was defective. I'd say there's "defective" and then there's "having 5,000+ feet of casing and other equipment fall on top of you .... or what you might call "damaged"". I may play here if the name gets hit without proof that it's really at fault.
- Cap and Trade is likely dead for now (2010 at least) as drilling in the "frontier" was what was buying some Senate votes.
- Crude imports coming into the Gulf Coast via the Gulf of Mexico could fall, how much will be hard to judge and will depend on the weather and how long the well remains uncapped. We could see reduced volumes in next week's report.
- Similarly, Gulf Coast refiners may see delayed crude shipments. This could boost gasoline prices and would be supportive of crude.
Other Stuff:
- CHK will release an operational update after the close today.
- SSN on the tape raising A$8.4 mm via a share sale and rights offering. Describes the offering as "heavily oversubscribed".
- Bakken Program: Next well, the Gary #1-20H, to spud in May as previously announced. After that 2 more Bakken wells, 1 in August, 1 in September.
- Niobrara Program: London Flats workover and drilling of an offset well to be done in the next 6 months.
- EPL - regains MMS supplemental waiver status ... frees up cash
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- BP - cut to Hold at Argus
- RIG - cut to Hold at Argus
- FSLR - target upped by Kaufman from $153 to $172
- CVX - target upped by Barclays from $96 to $105
- CVX - Socgen raises target from $84 to $93
- APC - Suntrust raises to Buy, target $82
- SWN - target cut from $60 to $52.50 by FBR
Interesting Reading Watch:
KOG mounting an early pre market move, up 5%.
KOG has been awfully quiet lately. But I get the sense it’s “good-quiet,” not “bad-quiet.” Looking forward to details on production, TFS test and pipeline tie-in timeline, credit facility, any mention of hedges or hedging program, additional acreage, what is going on with the XTO JV acreage, where that 2nd rig is being put to work, and just generally what the next 6 months are gonna look like. Should be an upbeat call.
EXXI (aka E21) — Rodman & Renshaw downgrading to “Market Perform” from outperform. I don’t see the details, but the downgrade came with the headline “Negative Sentiment Surrounding BP Oil Spill Tough to Overcome; Downgrade to Market Perform.”
Can’t really argue with that… but, thinking it’s a bit of closing the old barn door after all the horses have left the building.
Thanks BOP, seems like they are just piling on the selling with that rating. I may add some more today.
Anyone see a broker note on BEXP? Marked up early on decent volume.
HeadTrader’s color comments this morning = “mrkt seems to want to go down so don’t fight it… but [he] would still buy a share selloff as the most recent concerns (Greece, ECB collateral) seem to be averted…. till the next news cycle”
Madison Wms sent this out Friday and again this morning…
Deepwater Horizon BOP – we spoke to an offshore E&P CEO on the disaster to try to gauge perspective on where fault lies— when you lose surface control, there is no way to activate the BOP & there was no backup system; when the drill pipe is bent this far, the BOP shears that shut off the pipe can’t close & this is why the current attempts by ROV’s to close off the leak have been unsuccessful; our take, the real fault is likely not with CAM, but with BP & RIG– our money is on human error & operator BP is likely to bear the brunt of liability
re 6, what I’m thinking too on CAM.
Did you get a chance to listen to that interview with the guy who was on Deepwater Horizon? Pretty interesting stuff. Once again confirms my decision to have a desk job. The whole “gas was everywhere but you can’t see it, you can’t taste it, and then it just exploded”. Wow. He goes through a good explanation of just how often they test the BOP, and Wyoming pointed out that they test the riser as well.
HOUSTON, May 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC (NYSE:VNR – News) (“Vanguard” or “the Company”) today announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire producing oil and gas assets in Mississippi, Texas and New Mexico for $113.1 million from a private seller. The properties to be acquired have estimated total proved reserves of 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which approximately 96% are oil reserves and 61% are proved developed. At closing of this transaction later this month, net production attributable to the assets being acquired should be approximately 850 Boe/d. The effective date of the acquisition is May 1, 2010 and the Company anticipates closing this acquisition on or before May 27, 2010.
….After closing this transaction, management intends to recommend to the Company’s Board of Directors an increase in the quarterly distribution rate for the second quarter 2010 distribution payable on August 13, 2010. The Company is currently distributing $0.525 per quarter ($2.10 annualized).
z — haven’t listened yet… but, what a terrifying description of the nat gas situation. We tend to forget that our utility companies add sulfur to nat gas so that we can smell it. But natually occurring nat gas is usually ordor-less, color-less, and generally very very deadly.
Thanks John.
Re 9. Yep, nothing but huge loads of respect for the guys who find it and get it out of the ground for a living so that enviro protesters can sleep warmly at night and drive to tree hugging events.
Why would rig be a bad option here? I’m hearing they don’t carry the financial liability
Dunno if it is a bad option here, just not yet willing to play in the space. I’m mulling CAM and HAL for now.
Onshore oil and gas green at the open, service and offshor names not so much.
Take a look at NLC and SPN.
NLC, OK, thanks, they’re the disperssant makers?
RRC making a nice re-rally. Still holding it in the ZIM for people to wake up to the fact that that was a good quarter.
bexp is screaming!!
BEXP running nicely, don’t see any broker comments yet but we’re up 5% on good volume. Will take some profits there today in the ZIM and ZCAT with an eye towards keeping at least part of my position in the ZCAT (maybe just the July calls) for the potential impact of EOG’s press release and conference call tomorrow.
Is BEXP’s move a delay from Friday’s earnings or is there something else out there?
KOG singing along with BEXP… it’s the Bakken Kid Shuffle, going on today. Inland, oily, far far away from the GoM.
Any thoughts on the SSN pricing/news?
eog lagging, acting punky
ZTRADE – ZCAT – BEXP
BEXP – Sold (30 of 40) May $20 Calls for $1.20, up 139%, with the stock at $20.40. I plan to sell a similar portion out of the ZIM in the near future. I plan to keep the remaining calls and the July calls in the ZCAT through tomorrow’s earnings release by EOG, given the potential for news from EOG’s E. Montana program to be stock moving for BEXP.
John – nothing beyond my comments in the post and that it will probably take a few days to digest the news. I think it was necessary and not a lot of dilution. I’d take more dilution to get a Niobrara program turning to the right.
Gary, you have to admit it has had a good run. I do not expect a miss there. I do think they are more forthcoming on new ventures on this call but they may not have a lot new to share. If they don’t talk about E. Montana Bakken and some more results in the EFS then I think it could be a BTRSTN event. However, I think they will talk about the Niobrara and if those results are good it could continue to run to JB’s resistance at $125. I got the feeling from the analyst day that they plan on doing less of the holding the news in now as they have gotten the acreage positions they wanted for oil plays in play.
Baylor – the RIG just rolled back over after briefly trading green early. Rumors keep swirling and BP is pointing fingers at the Service guys who were on the job.
Added some NOG, would think they get invited to Bakken party at some point here.
ZTRADE – ZIM – BEXP
Sold (30 of 40) May $20 calls for $1.40, up 90%, with the stock at $20.70, 6% today. I plan to hold the remain 10 calls in this account through EOG’s comments tomorrow.
John, agreed, they may even get a proposal.
AEZ working higher as well.
KOG at $4.25. Way to stick to your trade BOP!
Ceo of Nlc going to be on cnbc soon.
z — thanks. Getting kicked in the head on my other sticky trade. But, bought on Friday at 17.02, so clearly I enjoy the beating.
NOT.
Haven’t heard if the TAT seller at 3.70 was taken out. But stock sure trading as if he was. Anyone have add’l color here?
Should have added to 28 that WLL continues to work higher. People are probably starting to think trip digits there.
Re TAT – no, would like more details on cost and production of this acquisition.
GT – thanks for the heads up on NLC, chart breaking out nicely on the daily and the weekly.
Crude suddenly turning higher.
Is the TAT acqtn official? So far, thought it was just talk… but, know that TAT is “close” to completing their Turkish Land Grab… so don’t know if this is what they were refering to, when they said that last week.
Story I saw said they were in “talks”
BEXP – will hold the remaining smaller positions into the EOG call. That is exactly how the ZCAT, ZIM, and ZLT (I have a $7.71 cost here) are supposed to work.
RE 31 TAT My info is that he has not sold yet
http://www.scribd.com/doc/30850121/Deepwater-Horizon
Z, have a comment stuck in a spam filter, too many links I guess. Couple slides of a subsea BOP presentation for my Well Control Course.
38-Block being shopped around,more buyers showing up
Wyo – I despammed it, was it on the wrap post?
No this one. Sent about 15 minutes ago.
Well, then I hate to tell you that I saw it, despammed it, it then disappeared into the internet void.
DrLink — thank you for that TAT update.
Ignore the email, it is up there
Z: I find it hard to commit capital until they get this thing capped. Have you seen any time frame that makes sense, and if you wait til then is that too late for opportunities in your mind?
Tom – Wyo knows better than me. I think best time frame is 10 days for a mechanical cap (coffer dam) like funnel, not a permanent fix but better than whatever is flowing now.
Wyoming’s stuff:
Riser is tested when being made up and run to the subsea stack. They are thin for weight reasons and have a low burst rating. Not a part of the regular BOP test, they use the kill and choke lines to handle all of the high pressure work.
Here are some screen captures from the presentation on Subsea Well Control:
Subsea stack Main components:
-Diverter under rig floor
-Marine riser from BOP stack to surface
-BOP stack and seabed wellhead
-Lower marine riser package (LMRP)
-Choke and kill lines attached to riser
-Subsea hydraulics system
Lower Marine Riser Pkg, couple guys on it for a size ref;
http://screencast.com/t/MTczMjgyNDct
All together, Mux type of system;
http://screencast.com/t/Y2Q3M2ViZjct
Typical moored rig stack
http://screencast.com/t/MTczMjgyNDct
Cable types
http://screencast.com/t/ZTUzYzU4
Here is a Hydrate forming on a Wellhead;
http://screencast.com/t/MjI3ZWM1Nz
48 – thanks much!
NLC – up $4 following CNBC interview. I move a little slow on names I don’t and decided not to participate. But GT keep those heads up coming and nice job.
Ran across the following on MMR
Capital One Southcoast: Potential Impact on E&P Companies from GOM Slowdown
MMR:
Target price changes: Given the uncertainty that we see for GOM exploration, we are risking our valuations for future exploration and
development projects by an additional 25%. We are lowering our target price on MMR by $3 to $13 (the expected pressure for the
ultradeep Davy Jones could be so high that the project could be delayed indefinately because no BOP could be rated high enough to safely test the well). We are also lowering our target price on EXXI by $3 to $24, our CIE target price by $2 to $19, and our SGY target price by $1 to $21, and PXP by $5 to $41.
MMR down another 11% today. BOP, did you have a comment on them over the weekend?
Tom,
From what I have read.
Short term, they are saying that the dispersant injection closer to the wellhead is making an impact, guess it is a relative thing. Mid term is the dome, said about week to get it in position. Long term is the intercepting wellbore, one rig is apparently in position while the other is almost released from it’s. This will take some time as they will try to directionally drill to the blow out. One that I saw in California had the intercepting well to drop next to the blow out well and then they wanted to perforate into it. They then wanted to kill it with mud. Afterward, they converted the kill well into an exploration well. They might not be able to build angle the way the want, it could require a sidetrack or two.
Wyoming – I’d guess drilling the relief wells is an above average risk given the oil and natural gas in the area on the surface and bubbling up. I wonder if they back off up wind of the slick. I would assume they are going to be quite aways away from the discovery wellbore, no?
z — re MMR… nothing that I saw. However, they (more than E21 and PXP) have upside from the ultra-deep play built into their stock. I know their multiples look low, but they keep revising down production estimates for this year, so tough to take a stand in front of that freight train.
Wyoming: Thanks. I had heard the dispersant injection was making an impact, but I am not sure what that means. Does that mean that the crude breaks into a compound that is less threating or easier to clean up?
GM sales up 6.4% for April (thanks Toyota)
Ram – did I answer your question on BEXP? Were you in RRC?
BPT; what do the smart people on this site think? the risk I find:
“Production from the BP Working Interests may be interrupted or discontinued by BP Alaska.
BP Alaska has no obligation to continue production from the BP Working Interests or to maintain production at any level and may interrupt or discontinue production at any time. The Trust does not have the right to take over operation of the BP Working Interests or share in any operating decisions by BP Alaska concerning the Prudhoe Bay Unit. The operation of the Prudhoe Bay Unit is subject to normal operating hazards incident to the production and transportation of oil in Alaska. In the event of damage to the infrastructure, facilities and equipment in the Prudhoe Bay field wAlaska has no obligation to use insurance proceeds to repair such damage and may elect to retain such proceeds and close damaged areas to production.
I can’t believe the value of this asset is impaired.
Yes and Yes.
Saw Buffet this morning on CNBC. He said GS had not done the best job of explaining the trade today and he would spend a considerable amount of time educating people today on exactly why he does not think they are guilt of fraud.
i pulled those lines from BPT 10-K
Z-do you have a view on APC-I initially believed that it was getting punished because of the explosion in the Gulf(as I understand, APC has a 25% non-operating interest in the well) but now I’m becoming more concerned with the impending earnings announcement today after close.
Thanks.
tom ref 56. Here is the video of Nalco from this morning. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1484044183&play=1
choices – #39 has quite a lot on APC
Choices – numbers probably not a problem there as they are generally conservative guiders. This looks like more Macondo blowback. Also, they are big in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. If the govt. does come with increased regulation it could make their job harder,slower,more costly. I think they’ll have some interesting stuff to talk about for W. Africa (Jubilee on track, etc,) and maybe in the Eagle Ford. But this continued drop to me looks like Macondo and fear over what their share of the clean up, well redrill, etc could be.
RRC back to $49. Even onshore gas beats offshore oil at the moment in the mind of the market.
thanks, Z, andy.
Heard some stuff and rumblings this weekend about the Davy Jones well being “out the window” with what has happened at Macondo. Schiller has said (in public) that he thought they would be able to produce DJ with a 20k psi wellhead (on a well with downhole pressures north of 18k psi). The thoughts are now that those specs are not robust enough. The pessimist immediately jumps to the conclusion that “if they can’t use a 20k psi wellhead, well, they just will never be able to produce that discovery.”
And the pessimist would be wrong.
E21 said last week that they have ordered a “detuned 30k psi wellhead, rated at 25k psi” from CAM. [Wyo, I know what that means, but I don’t know why one would mention a “detuned” wellhead… ??] E21 has also already ordered the production pipe for DJ and points out that their tree and BOP would be high-and-dry (not sub-sea level), so not anywhere near the issues of a Macondo well (with a BOP under 5,000 ft of water).
Schiller has also been going around saying that he believes that within 12 months DJ will not only have been flow-tested, but that they will be selling nat gas from that well. He also agrees that the “price of business” just went up in the gulf. But that tide pushes up all boats, so wouldn’t think it would be a crushing issue.
E21 is hosting their quarterly conf call this thursday morning. I hope Schiller uses that platform to forcefull reiterate what he has been saying here.
MMR — Pres./CEO Glenn Kleinert picking today to announce his retirement. At 67, guess that’s not a surprise. But JimBob is going to assume the title of Pres/CEO too, in addition to being Co-Chairman. This just looks a little fishy to me…
MMR…from a technical perspective…MMR is trying to make a stand here at a major support zone…MMR is right on long term P&F trendline support ,which holds above $10.50, 200 day daily SMA support and is near the confluence of the P&F downsdide price obj of $10 which intersects with major daily traditional chart trendline support…
BOP – re 70. Too much power in the hands of a fence swinger in my book. Their BOD should really think about making it transitional.
#63 I began buying APC last Friday and depending upon the call will be adding. See the note below re:insurance. I’m sure there will lots of questions on policy limits etc.
Also, and I may be wrong on this, but the ability to secure supercat insurance (and not self insure) is what makes an APC investable vs say an MMR.
Anadarko Petroleum (APC 62.16) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust; maintains $82 tgt. Firm bases upgrade on overreaction to oil spill. Co believes its redemption liability is covered by insurance.
z — #72, I second those remarks.
Eli – agreed, this kind of thing is a company killer if it happens to a little guy like MMR. I have to think ins. premiums, rightly or wrongly, are going to skyrocket, just like they did for rigs in the wake of Katrina.
SLB coming to a little of the Macondo swoon today. I think that’s probably unwarranted given what the White House has explained that it actually meant (vs what they actually said on Friday which was just off the cuff). I think all advisers, secretaries, committee chairs should be required to take “law of unintended consequences 101” class before they are allowed to get in front of a camera or behind a podium. Like Lahood who had Toyota owners pulling over on the side of the road for fear of instant death.
Z, any plans to play any of the names reporting this week?
#73-Excellent points, Eli-thanks for your input.
Z and Tom,
How would you get upwind of the slick? Could not say about the directional part other than they will be a little distance away but what do the have in between; salt dome or some funky structure/tectonics. That will probably be one of the main deciding points of where they position.
Dispersion? Not sure how they make oil “disappear”. Soaps cause emulsions and I think that depending on oil in water or water in oil thingy dictates whether the emulsion sinks. I’m not the best one to describe this. I will say that I think they tried work with some bacteria chemistry to literally eat the oil. We talked about this some time ago when we discussed biocides in frac water. Bugs and oil make H2S but on the surface it should not be that much of an issue. Just enough to be dangerous in this topic.
Bossman – Yes.
EOG – I have 10 May $115 Calls in the ZCAT
Also on the EOG, I’m playing BEXP calls and I have the stock.
EXXI – I own the stock, but not really for any one particular earnings call. If it gets weaker I plan to add calls in the ZCAT and if they smoke results I’ll add them in the ZIM after the pr is out.
HK – I have calls in the ZCAT (May $24s)
KOG – I own the common, but again, for a long term hold, not for this call.
Other stuff the ZIM will be watching for:
BBG – outperformance of differentials for Rockies gas vs expectations.
PQ – an update on Woodford wells and on the Gulf Coast program.
CLR – potentially bigger TFS/Bakken results… theirs have been slower to climb in terms of IP and EUR than WLL and BEXP. I also think WLL could go higher as CLR is expensive so if they beat, WLL just looks that much better.
SD – watching because they may have something definitive to say about ARD.
FST – watching for more big Granite Wash wells but honestly don’t think they will have much to say at this point.
SFY – story continues to evolve, warm reception of late, don’t be surprised to see the ZIM play. I used to know Bruce Vincent (pres here after Terry Swift moved over) and think he is reshaping the company. He’s pres of IPAA and was SFY’s IR guy for a long time so he knows how to present the company in the best light as well as how to run it effectively.
Wyoming – I dunno, just guessing they wouldn’t want to park the new rig in the thick oil.
NR – Stock has had a heck of a run but their tech is becoming more relevant.
Wunderlich Securities, Inc.: Raising Target on Strong Core Business; Exciting Technology Upside Potential
We are raising our price target on Newpark Resources (NR) to $12.00 per share from $8.00 and maintaining our Buy rating based on a strong 1Q10 and expected gains in market share for Newpark from its proprietary water-based fluids. Newpark reported a nice 1Q10 that handily beat estimates, but more important, we believe Newpark’s water-based fluid product gains acceptance. We believe the product acceptance is important as the margins are stronger. Newpark could see dramatic growth going forward if it can continue to expand its exposure in the Haynesville and then to other shale plays as the cost savings and increased performance of the new product is continually discovered.
Key Points
Newpark had a strong 1Q10. The company reported 1Q10 earnings of $0.08 per share last week, beating estimates of $0.03 by the Street. Newpark was able to grow revenues smartly from all three segments and also expanded its margins, which was due to cost-cutting measures that were put in place in 2009 and the higher sales figures. We look for Newpark to continue gaining market share, boosting each forward quarter incrementally.
The company continues to expand its proprietary water-based fluid exposure. Newpark continues to expand its water-based fluid product, specifically in the Haynesville where it has now drilled 19 wells using the patented (and patent-pending) technology. The big opportunity for Newpark’s water-based product is that we believe it saves E&P companies about $250,000 per well in disposal costs over standard oil-based fluids as well as environmental benefits, improved penetration rates, lower operating temperatures, and coefficient of friction.
Look for Newpark to move the water-based technology into other shale plays. The product has performed nicely and we expect Newpark to see growth from the water-based fluids both in the Haynesville and in areas like the Marcellus and Eagle Ford. We believe Newpark is in a great spot as its traditional products are already on about 20% of the domestic rigs drilling today and therefore have better access to the field-level and management personnel of its clients to pitch its higher margin water-based fluids.
Newpark’s international business and other segments contributing nicely. Though international fluid business was a little weak in 1Q10 and is volatile, there are multiple regional opportunities for the product to expand sales. The Mats and Integrated Service segment continues to improve given the environmental benefits and Newpark has seen incremental demand for Environmental Services with its disposal system.
Newpark could be a nice bullet in the gun for one of the larger oilfield service companies. We are increasing our price target to $12 per share from $8, which is calculated by our estimated $127 million 2011 EBITDA figure and a peer group multiple of 7.2 times. However, we believe this multiple could be low considering Smith International (SII-NR) was just acquired at a 9.3 times multiple recently. We believe it’s possible Newpark gets acquired given its proprietary product and its worldwide operations.
Re #80: Thanks also for this info.
Anytime
VNR conf. call: most imp’t comment was this acq. makes up the cash flow shortfall caused by being unhedged in ’12 & ’13. Gas prices rising over this period would be all to the good as they could lock in further hedges. Raising distribution: mgt had said they wanted debt/Eda less than 2.0 (now at 1.8 before acq financing, which will probably get announced imminently).
Bad news: est. decline rate P/F acq. was 16% (I think he said 16%, not 6%); shutting in high LOE wells.
I agree but there is more to it than we have information.
Ford sales up 24.7% in April
Eli: You may have also seen that Cobalt Energy reported that the APC Heidelberg appraisal well encountered mechanical difficulties getting to their target depth.
Re 86. In my case that is always the case. I just operate under the assumption that I know more than 51% of the other guys.
Wyoming: 79 Thanks. Sounds pretty cool.
RRC – Anyone see a broker comment/note to explain the rally today?
China raised reserve ratio requirements for the 3rd time this yr. to 17%. Does the “3 Steps and Stumble” rule also apply to reserve requirements? Just musing.
JB – how does RRC look to you, coming up against 200 day ema, not sure if that matters, at it just crossed back above the 50 and 200 day SMA’s?
ZTRADE – ZIM – RRC
RRC – Sold the (30) May $52.50 Calls for $0.75, up 87%, with the stock at $50. I continue to hold the (10) May $50 Calls.
79 – Wouldn’t each platform have a wind rose associated with it, for aviation purposes?
Shelf Players starting to bounce off the lows. Names like MMR and EXXI are probably due a heckuva dead cat bounce. Not that they are dead cats but you get my point.
RE: #93 RRC…looks great, RRC trading at major resistance now at $50-$51, new P&F buy signal at $52…
Thanks JB – I took the most sensitive piece (higher strike) off the table and may punt the rest if it doesn’t take out $51 tomorrow assuming its a green group day.
Rat – Yes, I was just thinking of it because a couple of rigs and platforms had to shut down, not wanting to risk igniting the oil floating around them. They’d have to give me combat pay to get me on the rig drilling the relief well.
SSN down 2.6 cents, taking the news pretty much in stride. Next catalyst probably the spud of the Gary well (Bakken) in about 3 weeks.
TD12 #88 on APC and CIE. Thanks, I had not seen that.
Note to self on SSN. SSN trading at .71 tells you that this one will be going much higher with the financing struck at USD.6365, oversubscribed, and rights offering middle of the month. May see BEXPish price action.
Dollar looks like a freight train here, just won’t give up the rally.
VNR after-thought: none of the 3 bankers on co.s last deal (12/09) asked a question on the conf. call: WFC, Citi, RBC. Maybe they’re busy working on the new deal.
BEXP – topped $21. I think my good buddy J Almon downgraded it at $12. Maybe that was just a typo Joe.
He likes MMR today I hear.
RMD – someone with a Bloom can tell you if those names are restricted on VNR.
104 every acq is closely followed by a financing, and they probably would have said they would only use debt on the call if that were the case.
good point
Z, did you hear about this (re: jeffries)?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/streetwise/jefferies-seeking-canadian-content/article1554765/
BOP – re EXXI and getting kicked in the head on that sticky trade, it happens sometimes as you know. I just want to reiterate Intern #1’s thanks for the 228% she is up in KOG.
cue the lawyers:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36912754/ns/us_news-environment/?GT1=43001
VNR — no one volunteering themselves “restricted” on bloomberg.
Boss – no but thanks. Interesting. I can’t see Rich Handler abandoning ship below $40.
z — 108, thx. Helps salve the black-and-blue spots a bit… in the long run (that means greater than 6 mos out), I believe I will be very happy with E21 (just as I had to wade through a Swamp of Pain with KOG, before getting to dry land). But, oh my, it is painful in the short-run.
Cherry-on-top would be if Lee Cooperman was selling on this. Hope not. He doesn’t have a trigger-happy finger for things that have long-term value. On the other hand, this is a lot of volatility to have to put up with. ouch.
(And i would be shocked, SHOCKED if SAC hadn’t sold out already. HE has a very very short fuse.)
RE dispersants – It’s the opposite of an emusifier. An emulsifier would make things stick together for easier removal. Dispersants would cause the oil to stick together and hopefully avoid sticking to biomass and other solids. It also prevents the oil from forming emulsions (of oil, solids, water for example) which can be difficult to break up after.
By adding the dispersants they are hoping that the oil will form little little droplets which can more easily be cleaned up.
Notes from a Morgan piece (they held a conference call with CAM, SII, RIG, HAL)
Some key points
CAM – the blowout preventer made by CAM was out of warranty. RIG would have had responsibility for maintenance. This was apparently confirmed by RIG on the CC. The rig owner often subs out the maintenance on the BOP but in this case Morgan does not think CAM was the one contracted to do the maintenance.
BP was in charge of mud density as operator.
HAL – company denies the cement plug had been installed.
Morgan went on to say they see increased regulation for offshore drilling as a POSITIVE for CAM and NOV due to the potential need for more redundant equipment.
They see DO as disadvantaged due to their older fleet and SDRL, ESV, and PDE at an advantage.
They went on to say that contractual protections provide cover for RIG and CAM
….
I’m talking myself into a CAM buy here….
GHS initiated on ATPG 117/8% Sr. Secured Lien notes 5/1/15 with a buy.
RMD — thanks! Thought those bonds were 144a… but they are showing up as registered under cusip USU04889AB40 and are indicated around 98.5 for a 12.28 yield.
ZBLAST – ZIM – CAM
CAM – Added (20) CAM May $42.50 Calls for $0.85 with the stock at $39.30. I may add additional calls here or in the $40 strikes later in the day. See today’s post and comment section for reasoning.
Z – RE: 114 – Based on what I hear regarding expectations, the redundant equipment thing is likely.
spy at a downtrend line from 4.26
rats! foiled again. The ATPG 11 7/8 due 5/14 is NOT registered here in the U.S. The registered ones were issued in the euro mrkt (so that is a ISIN id above, not a cusip, my bad). Bottom line, have to be a Qualified Institutional Buyer (QIB) to buy it.
ROSE on the move again, not playing for earnings but still holding the common. I think the big playable news for them will come around mid year.
Z, you musta taken some batting practice on that vacation you took. You are really knocking it out of the park ever since you came back, congratulations.
What I am seeing on my screens right not is Oih at point where it could bounce of 200ma and Rig, Bp, Hal Cam etc. showing rounding bottoms.
Bond – Thanks. Tempted to go on another one but heard Gulf Shores may not have the nicest beaches any more. Not joking at all, had a friend staying there last week and they were saying the local news said to expect the worst.
And Bond, I’d add that Petra and I did a lot of soul searching on strategy, with contributions on the ZIM concept from BOP.
I’ve also kept a more active eye on the chart guys around here, especially Nicky and JB.
z — joined you in buying CAM (the stock). It’s a very large cap name for me, but their business should be good to grow for the foreseeable future. Sell-siders have a mostly “neutral” on the name but a $50 PT.
at 11:42 AM BP release saying “We’ve significantly cut the flow through the pipe” shutting a set of hydraulic shears (annular rams) which helped clamp the ruptured pipe.
Schiller (E21 CEO) having dinner with buy-siders tonight at the OTC in Houston. Maybe he can get his oily-but-not-1,000-Leagues-Under-The-Sea story out to a larger crowd.
A number of the names affected by Gulf problems bouncing hard, e.g. APC bounced from $60 this am to now $64+
maybe related to #128, the timing fits.
http://blog.al.com/live/2010/05/bp_official_weve_significantly.html
BOP – I hear ya on CAM and I won’t be there long but it has been beaten about the head more than I think is warranted. I could of course be wrong but I’ve read enough to make take a taste down here.
Wonder if OII owns the ROV that pulled that off.
It would have been CAM’s BOP shears…. right?
RMD — #128 bless you, my dear.
BOP – yes. That MS piece walks through it very well. Sounds like no one was alive on the rig floor to hit the emergency BOP shutoff, and that the explosion probably severed communications between the surface and the BOP. So the piece of equipment just sat there. Then 5000 feet of riser and bits of rig come down on top of it. So they must have gotten an ROV in there to get the hydraulics on the BOP to function. Wyoming or TEXW or anyone feel free to correct me if I have that account out of joint to your thinking. Either way, the BOP would have been RIG’s responsibility and all accounts are that it had been passing tests regularly.
EOG at new high with earnings tonight.
Fair warning, I’m going to come out of the rest of my RRC in the ZIM as I don’t want that account sitting on trades for long periods.
exxi up 10 % in 30 minutes
wowser
That MS piece was mighty helpful. Glad you could incorporate it into another Awesome Possum ZIM trade.
NYTimes reporting that one of the containment is going on and other two domes ready by Tuesday.
Funny how our “market news experts” have not caught on yet.
bill — i’ve been wearing those $17.02 shares i bought on Friday all day… like one wears egg on one’s face. So, feeling a tad better about making lemonade out of lemons now.
damn; EXXI is trading like its moved its operations onshore….
HeadTrader saying he hasn’t heard it on CNBC yet…
look at that move in EXXI — wow !
jiveyjr — GOOD ONE!! lol
ZTRADE – ZIM – RRC
Sold the RRC May $50 calls for 1.60, up 74% with the stock at $49.90.
where did Bp make release ref. in 128?
ZMAN – An earlier comment compared SSN to BEXP. Would you think that KOG could possibly put a move closer to BEXP?
GT – see Jat’s 131
KOG is more likely to move like that than SSN simply due to the running room (acreage KOG has) compared to the 6 sections (3600 acres) SSN has. However, the Niobrara could prove to be the much bigger boon for SSN … we just need to see the results of the reentry and timing of that is unclear. I also think AEZ and NOG are candidates for BEXP type action. And WLL, even from here.
this is a video with child’s interview
http://www.fox10tv.com/dpp/news/gulf_oil_spill/bp-says-it-has-slowed-the-oil-leak
Thanks z and jat!!
ZTRADE – ZIM – CAM
Added (25) CAM $45 May Calls for $0.60 with the stock at $41.10. See additional comments on the site for reasoning.
128 is great news which i havent seen anywhere else
btw, why is justice investigating this disaster
ZERROR – those CAM $45s went into the ZCAT by accident (had the wrong pulldown account up when I fired it off). I added 25 calls in the ZIM for $0.69.
I wish there were an actual press release from BP itself but the fox interview seems credible.
Thanks Jat, this is a good interview with the BP guy.
Guy in the interview said they will hold a press conference at 4 pm
bill, my understanding that Justice’s interest from the very beginning, in spite of the laughter about lawyers being used to plug a hole, is the potential breaking of environmental laws. It is their responsibility to oversee this aspect.
oh, right
I have trouble watching the main news channels.
Fox news is saying BP has had no luck at all with the cleanup, didn’t mention dispersents, or the BOP story.
CNN said the BOP, which is connected from the top by “the thing” to the bottom, had no luck in working, then showed a schematic and the guy said “there it is”, other guy “the thing at the bottom, right” other guy “yes, those are easy to test on land but hard to test in 5,000 feet of water” Wow, I am surprised these journalist know who to breath, tie shoes or anything else.
HT hearing that BP came out saying there has been no change in the flow in an emailed statement.
Wonder who inside BP is right? Bit of internal communication problems, it sounds like.
and another WOW over EXXI ! Holy Cow !
Thanks BOP, very odd. I looked up the guy in the interview and he definitely works for BP.
BOP; you are the AXE ! The source of all the latest news and rumors.
Re 162. Question for HT. Who did BP email this statement to? Sounds like a short making up a rumor. One thing is certain, the stocks will move hard and fast when they do cap it.
just bought back the shares I flipped out in the squeeze !
let’s do it again !
I guess EXXI just moved their opperation back to offshore – they are pretty nimble.
TAT up 7%, Turkish oil and gas very much on land.
SSN down less than 2 pennies now, not too shabby that.
Pack — you’re just like my HF friend… he sold his at 18.85 and just bought back at 17.16. This is wild stuff.
I think the latest “BP email” is either old news… or bogus. But, that’s what makes longs and shorts, both, money.
yeah this Jeff Childs is for real, I see him listed in SPE Alaskan documents
#150 allllright Z, a steel cage match it is. I betcha a cold one that on a percentage basis SSN’s return six months from now is greater than any of the names in #150. I’m riding a hot non-institutional mudder tight on the rail. Pole to pole. SSN beats out MHR by a nose. Photo op for KOG, NOG,WLL & AEZ in the show slot.
BOP – 170 … got to ….
I’m just a HF mini me (no fund, but act like one)
WoWoW oh wow, bot some E21 at 16.65 this am, went out to lunch with a client, came back and it is 17.69, the stock market is crazy! Crazy good some days.
bondbuddha; yeah but you missed 19.40!
Place a sell order next time you go to lunch, just in case !
http://alaska.spe.org/images/alaska/articles/92/March%202010%20AK%20SPE%20Newsletter.pdf
he’s on pg 2 as listed as having transfered in from the gulf coast, so I guess he just went back there when the disaster happened.
given this and watching the interview on fox I’m more likely than not to give the nod to childs as opposed to an email from a pr guy in London.
Re 172. No bet.
re 176. I think the email was taken from the morning press conference. They have 2 per day so this afternoon’s should set the record to Childs’ way of thinking.
Holy mackerel, was just adding anyway, not looking to daytrade, just the thought of day trading scares a poor old bond man. Feel like I picked a $20 up off the street though.
ZTRADE – ZIM – CAM
CAM – Added a second set of (25) May $45 calls for $0.50.
washbrob check your email, thanks.
DJN picking it up now:
“BP Says It ‘Significantly’ Cut Flow Of Oil From Damaged Rig -Report
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) said Monday that it had significantly reduced the flow of
oil from the damaged Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico, the
Press-Register of Mobile, Ala., reports on its website. “We’ve significantly
cut the flow through the pipe,” BP official Jeff Childs said at a briefing
hosted by U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby (R, Ala.). Childs said the company shut a
set of hydraulic devices called annualar rams, which clamped the rig’s broken
pipe, and it’s still attempting to seal the well by shearing off the drill
pipe.
In another report, the Press-Register cites experts as saying that heavy
rain has helped disperse the oil slick and could possibly reduce its impact on
the local ecosystem. “The weather is helping us. It is breaking up and
dispersing the plume” of oil, said Bruce Freeman, an official with the Alabama
Department of Environmental Management. The severe weather has also, however,
hampered efforts to place booms along the shore.
Websites:
http://blog.al.com/live/2010/05/bp_official_weve_significantly.html
http://blog.al.com/live/2010/05/experts_rain_is_helping_to_dis.html
-Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2900
But the story shows up right after this one:
BP spokesman Scott Dean says flow is the same since yesterday, Bloomberg reports
buzz from the OTC Conference in Houston is the Annular BOP on the Horizon well has been activated. Should reduce flow by 70%. May bode well for getting the blind rams to work too.
Reuters story out now with BP saying there is no change in rate, mentions Jeff Childs, says “our observations indicate no change at all, the flowrate is unchaged”. Weird.
>BP spokesman Scott Dean says flow is the same since yesterday, Bloomberg reports
does the left hand know what the right hand is doing
the market sold it off
“at a briefing hosted by U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby (R, Ala.).”
Surely the DJnews reporter could have and would have fact checked this?????
Except for the fact that i have lost a lot of book value, this is sort of funny. I have a sneaking feeling that there was progress made on Macondo… and we will hear about it at 4pm or so.
May you live in interesting times.
sheesh.
It’s been a while since there was a positive “E” ticket ride in energy land. It would be nice if we don’t run out of tracks tomorrow.
4pm: Muzak background in BP elevator “whats it all about when you sort it out, Alfie”
Watching CAM… mrkt “believes” again. It should be a fascinating after-hours today. z…. you gonna stick around for a bit after close?
Yep, yep, very busy today, will be here awhile.
Not a bad day as Monday’s go. Beerthirty.
news conference coming up
they have to make the poiticians look good here
i think the reports are true
Actually, monday’s have been the Best Day of the week, lately. M&A headlines back in the driver’s seat.
I missed the first five minutes, anything
well, so much for that idea.
choices, the bulkers are moving well. Perhaps , they turned the corner
sea, the etf liquidated and the names are bouncing back from the selling
goota love the ambulance chasers
http://houston.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2010/05/03/daily12.html?ana=yfcpc
Hey Jat, that was the Coast Guard update right, anything new from them?
jat — i don’t think the drama is over yet… stay tuned…
yes, bp is commenting.
#196 they forgot to name APC. Wonder how many passed the bar exam.
CNBC saying the press conference said the BOP was not partially activated. Now I’m pretty confused what this Child’s character was talking about. Somebody better check his trading account.
Thing is… i think we have seen a preview of what will happen when (not “IF”) BP gets this blowout under control. That and the fact that oil has not seemed to hit the shoreline yet… and warm water and waves are doing their part to evaporate the stuff… this just MAY be less of a catastrophe that it could have been. Let’s hope so, anyway.
But, point being, the Gulf Kids will bounce. And may bounce pretty hard too.
Agree with 202, still disappointing all the same. BP official basically saying that Child’s was correct that some of the rams closed but incorrect that it significantly reduced oil flow.
On the other hand, they said the “containment vessel” could be ready as early as tomorrow. That is about 7-10 days sooner than they said this morning.
i bet you forgot all about this
chk has an update
http://www.chk.com/News/Articles/Pages/1421381.aspx
Z: Looks like CHK is also going to the liquids. 15% – 20% of production by end of 2012. Do you think tomorrows trading in CHK will show us what to expect from HK this week?
this outlook different from others as they dont show profroma pl’s and cash flow at various ng prices
FST on the tape with a 45 MM/d IP Granite Wash well.
wow never heard one that big
Schwarzenegger on the tape… “pulls support for CA offshore oil drilling.”
The good news is this fair weather friend will be “terminated” and go back to acting on 1/3/11.
BPT; talk about a lot of volume on no news (imho). I got lucky and picked some up around $92 and change; with CAM I am running with the Z-man!
210
thats bad for pxp, and vq and they were so close and kalifornia could have used the money
211 alot of states elect wrestlers , comedians, con artists, some eventually get impeached. Ones wife traded derivitives (cattle futures) then laments about risks goldman entered into
re 210/211 “Rise of the Accommodator”
too funny Z
Positions updated:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/
VNR looks like it wants to go up out of this 22-25 range…now, before or after a deal??
VNR and LINE are ex-div on wednesday I believe.
Z – ref MMR. One of the fast money guys pointed out big call volume in the Aug 11 and 15 strikes. Any thought or is this just someone guessing on future catalysts?
Italy, could be a spread (buying the $11s and selling the $15’s premium to help pay for them), so yeah, someone making a bet. I don’t think the month has much significance except it gives you a little more time than usual.
EOG on the tape, big Barnett combo well in there, still looking over the pr.
Z – thanks, makes sense.
EOG production at high end of guidance range, Revenue ahead by a mile, but EPS 5 cents short, CFPS looks a little light, basically in line. Looking through costs to find out what was the problem.
No mention of Niobrara or E. Montana Bakken in the PR that I see so far.
MMR — i don’t own it anymore… but, not an impossible concept that someone buys it out. MMR needs the money, just retired their Pres/CEO, has declining current gassy-production, but a lot (15-20) of ultra-deep prospects. Nothing out of Washington so far to indicate that the MMS will not let ultra-deep drilling on the shelf move forward.
Just a thought…
E21 has free cash flow… increasing production, oily, and overlaps with MMR’s acreage… Schiller becomes MMR Pres/CEO and JimBob continues for a few more yrs as Chairman…????
Note to self… would prefer that E21 NOT buy/acquire/merge with MMR.
I do believe that APC is raising guidance. Wahoo!
The good stuff: The company maintains insurance policies designed to provide financial protection for such events, for its share of gross covered costs up to an aggregate level of approximately $710 million, less deductibles. Based on its 25-percent non-operated interest, the company estimates its net insurance coverage will likely total approximately $177.5 million, less deductibles of $15 million.
Is EOG’s results more of a neutral nature? Does it look half empty or half full?
EOG
Good on the top line,weak on the bottom line but honestly their costs were in line. A little high on lease operating area but within the range, and several other categories came in low. Looks like the analysts just went too low to middle of the road.
Guidance remains unchanged for volumes
Guidance for costs is up ever so slightly.
No Niobrara or E.Montana results available in the press release so little to wow the crowd.
I’d guess it opens off a couple and stays that way until the CC, then it depends on what they say.
Fairly good summary as of mid-afternoon:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/us/04spill.html?hp
It is difficult to imagine the huge problems these crews have trying to work in heavy seas and wind under intense stress and pressure-they are certainly earning their pay.
I’m gonna’ need some pliers, and a set of 30 weight ball bearings (it’s all ball bearing nowadays) And I’m gonna’ need about 10 quarts of antifreeze, preferably Prestone. No, make that Quaker State.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/30881586/5k-Tree