01
May

Wrap – Week Ended 4/30/10

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Holdings Watch:

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio)

  • $13,400
  • 40% Cash
  • Last Week’s Closed Trades:
    • WLL – Sold the May $75 call for $12.60, up 30%.  Repositioned into higher strike calls before earnings.

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $26,700
  • 78% Cash
  • Last Week’s Closed Trades:
    • Sold (100) VLO $21 Calls, up 38%, with the stock at 20.40. Would have held longer but S&P downgraded Spain and the market looks a bit dodgy.
    • SWN – Sold the (10) May $39 PUTS for $1.80, up 66%. Stock may go lower but this seems a bit greedy and there are mitigating circumstances to the lower IPs mentioned in the post.

The spreadsheets and quick view positions will be updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page on Sunday.

Wrap Comments:

T.B.A.

 

32 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 4/30/10”

  1. 1
    dij Says:

    From the comment section on the Times article on the oil spill:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    We’re Saved!

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100501/ap_on_bi_ge/us_oil_spill_lawsuits

  3. 3
    Wyoming Says:

    http://tinyurl.com/2ue5wev

    Throw that on top of shutting down offshore. For those who are new or forgot the discussion, this will impact stripper wells and casing gas production to the tune of about 20% of domestic production. Pulled that from memory so please correct me if I am wrong.

  4. 4
    Wyoming Says:

    Choices, I got tired of pulling between two threads so I am putting my additional comments here. Last week I made a comment about catastrophic events always being present due to human error and mother nature. We can reduce the chances but we can never eliminate them. In the case of mother nature, lets look at coal mining. My first assignment was in Kentucky and most of our wells were on coal property. Coal mining has been around the world for decades. They have refined their techniques, efficiencies, engineering. They still run into tragedy, China and W. Va of recent. Will it ever be stopped, I think no for 2 reasons. Environmental opinion has made surface mining a scar and forces mines deeper underground. They can not predict when they will hit a seem of nat gas or place a member that will break or stop a miner from running equipment into something important.

    In deepwater or any well operation; we have BOP’s for decades to control wells, they are not just one ram. There will be about 3 that perform different functions, all control. There will even be one more component for working day to day (Hydril). Bop’s are required to be tested after so many days of operation or if you have to change out a ram to account for a different tubular outside diameter. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blow_Out_Preventer Here is the problem. I can almost guarantee without knowing the details that this well profile was pretty much the same as many other wells, at least in the shallow portion where the hydrates would be present. Yet, like the case of the miners, we still had a catastrophic event. Could an acoustic BOP have prevented this? Maybe. My question would be, how many times has an acoustic BOP or any other device prevented a blow out? How many times has a rig “hit the button” for an acoustic BOP? I can imagine that the first time there is an incident on a well that has an acoustic BOP, eventually there will be an incident, human or mother nature, people will be saying that we need more regulation or there was negligence. Reading some of the rhetoric and seeing how the gov’t lawyers have already been dispatched, I can tell that the plan is already in place. Combined with the comment that we are shutting down new drilling until new guarantees that this will be avoided confirms that the pan has already been cooked.

    On another note, I read that there are “Swat” type teams heading offshore to ensure compliance. Compliance with what? The same regulations (MMS) that the Horizon rig was implementing. Anyway, in the case of EPA violations, sending out SWAT teams to arrest the culprits in the middle of the night is standard practice as it is a Federal violation. Learned that when I was in California.

    I remember a well a couple of years ago, we had seismic data, it was a deeper Cotton Valley well. The geologists could not tell us where a critical salt zone was. As a driller, this is important as it changes everything from mud to casing design and on an exploration well, you are fighting not having to set too many strings as it will reduce the id (internal diameter)of the well.

    I ramble, there is more to these thoughts but this is probably enough for now, besides I have to get back to work.

  5. 5
    mimster90 Says:

    TAT – TransAtlantic in talks to buy Zorlu oil, gas unit

    ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Canada-based energy company TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd TAT.A (TNP.TO: Quote) is in talks to buy the oil and gas division of Zorlu Enerji (ZOREN.IS: Quote), Zorlu Group Chairman Ahmet Nazif Zorlu told Reuters on Friday.
    Shares in Zorlu Enerji were up 4.5 percent at 3.26 lira at 1430 GMT.

    “Talks are being held,” Zorlu said, without providing details.

    In a subsequent statement, Zorlu Enerji said it and TransAtlantic were in discussions on the sale of Amity Oil Pty Ltd and Zorlu Petrogas Petrol Gaz ve Petrokimya Ürünleri Insaat Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.

    TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd is involved in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of crude oil and natural gas.

    It has interests in developed and undeveloped oil and gas properties in Turkey, Morocco, Romania, and California.

    (Reporting by Ceyda Caglayan; Editing by Erica Billingham)

    http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE63T35020100430

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Energy Earnings Week 3 Calendar posted here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/calendar/

    Very busy.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    ZCAT and ZIM positions updated here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/

  8. 8
    Wyoming Says:

    Nuckin Futs; Conspiracy theory about North Korea blowing up the Horizon. Tin foil hats.

    http://tinyurl.com/3x2ucd4

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Wyo – I hear N.K. torpedoed Greece’s economy as well.

  10. 10
    Wyoming Says:

    I think they torpedoed my lunch. Guess it will be another 15 years before I try “Indian” again.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Wow, thanks for sharing. How’s the local cuisine?

  12. 12
    Wyoming Says:

    OK, they don’t allow any franchises. No McD’s and such. I have been way more scared in other places. You just have to deal with the occasional … I digress.

  13. 13
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #186 from Friday…EOG, Zman, sorry for the delay…updated and adjusted the P&F chart to try and make it more useful, also added a weekly chart perspective…looks like EOG is beginning to form a bullish ascending triangle on the daily, the technical support level to watch is $108, which also prints the sell signal on the modified P&F chart and corresponds with the daily 20 period SMA…looking at the weekly if EOG continues to move higher, the next material resistance looks to be closer to $125…

    A few other comments…

    ATPG is trading right at a critical technical point…with the gap down on Friday, ATPG traded near long term P&F trendline support…but ATPG is still on a buy signal, so this could be a great opportunity if support holds…more comments later tonight…a number of technical chart pattern perspectives updated…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Thanks very much JB!

  15. 15
    Wyoming Says:

    Exciting day @ the OTC tomorrow.

    http://screencast.com/t/OTU3MjVkZGM

  16. 16
    choices Says:

    Thanks for the additional comments, Wyoming. Yes, I would say that the OTC s/b exciting tomorrow.

    Thanks, JB-EOG does look strong-voted.

  17. 17
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #16 choices, thank you…

    A couple other technical developments on a few of the other names…BHI went on a new P&F sell signal with the print below $49 last week, also breaking P&F trendline support, the burden is now on the bulls, so if you’re long and holding, please keep a close eye on this…on the positive side, BHI is still trading within the wide daily channel with major support at $47…

    Similar situation for ESV, new P&F sell signal, but ESV is holding P&F trendline support and bounced off daily channel line support Friday…

  18. 18
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Hope you stayed away from all the tornadoes in your neck of the woods. Scary stuff for us non-tornado area folk.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Tom – thanks, lots of sirens but they all missed HQ.

    SSN on the tape raising A$8.4 mm via a share sale and rights offering. Describes the offering as “heavily oversubscribed”

    Bakken program going forward:
    next well, the Gary #1-20H, to spud in May as previously announced. After that 2 more Bakken wells, 1 in August, 1 in September.

    Niobrara:
    London Flats workover and drilling of an offset well to be done in the next 6 months.

  20. 20
    mimster90 Says:

    From KOG’s website

    June
    3, 2010 2010 Annual General and Special Meeting of Shareholders of Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp.—Thursday, June3, 2010 at 9:00 a.m. (MDT) at 1625 Broadway Suite 820, Denver, CO 80202

    Does “special” have any real meaning in the context above? Is it the reason KOG surged on Friday on such heavy volume?

  21. 21
    baylor3217 Says:

    I’m curious what the events in NYC and Pittsburgh will have on the broader markets, if any.

    Pittsburgh, probably not much. Oil doesn’t appear to be trading up on these events at the moment according to bloomberg.

    Dow futures have come in since the announcements this afternoon and it may mute the Greek bail out impact on the overall market.

    It was quite interesting reading the articles from Greece and all the people complaining about what their parents did to them and how they will never have it now as good as their parents did.

    I fear we are in the HOV lane to that end as well if we don’t become more fiscally conservative anytime in the near future.

  22. 22
    baylor3217 Says:

    Is there a website to look at US individual stock futures? I use bloomberg.com to check out the broader market futures.

  23. 23
    baylor3217 Says:

    Merger Monday: United and Continental appear ready to move forward with the much anticipated merger.

  24. 24
    Gtinvest Says:

    Z I just founded this on Cam message board. I have no idea if this is for real
    http://www.marklevinshow.com/Article.asp?id=1790422&spid=32364.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Re 22. You mean on stocks, not stock indexes? Not that I know of and even if there were it would be highly inaccurate as the overnight market is so thin.

    Re 24. Thanks, will have a look.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    GT – that sounds legit to me. Notice him talking about the regularity of the blowout preventer tests? CAM stock has been bashed I think undeserved here. Could be a defect as the govt and BP says but as he said, they had just tested it. I think it could be that the 5,000 feet of tangled riser on top of it could have damaged it.

  27. 27
    Gtinvest Says:

    I just hope the funnels help with the leaks and they get this under control soon or there is going to be a lot of pressure on the entire industry.
    Have a good night.

  28. 28
    Wyoming Says:

    GT, Thanks.

    Z, I believe they might have tested the riser with the BOP’s too. Not sure on the detailed procedure. If they had any weighted fluid greater than seawater density, they would know if they had a riser leak.

  29. 29
    Gtinvest Says:

    To Z and Wyoming, you welcome, I cannot beleive how small details can make such a huge difference in deep sea driller. The scale of he projects are so immense yet carefully planning and responsiveness to changing conditions means everything. By the way look at SPN for the riser control. and NlC for the dispersant selling more than the can produce. Please let me know what you think?

  30. 30
    Gtinvest Says:

    Sorry for the poor gramar but its early.!

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    GT, the Monday post is up. I don’t know NIC, not coming up on my system.

  32. 32
    benbobby Says:

    Z…re:29 I think that he is referring to NLC Nalco Holding

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