Wrap – Week Ended 07/25/08


Got a bit wrapped up this weekend; may get to update the wrap with comments tonight but it looks unlikely.


It was another poor week for performance and we did a little bit of repositioning in preparartion for the third and busiest week of the 2Q earnings season to date as the rapid decline in the group had turned many of our near month positions into long shots even if sentiment of oil, natural gas, and the group improves. I think some of our favorite names will be pulling out all the stops in terms of forward looking news ...more on that later in the week.


Regarding the commodities, everyone and I mean everyone has turned bearish on oil. The opposite of three weeks ago when the unanimous consensus pointed to $150. My sense is that oil will trade in a range of $115 to $140 over the near term. At present technicals are in charge and they are bearish. The geopolitical front has been abnormally quiet but that is likely to change soon as Iran goes back to the procrastination table at the end of this week while its president brags about his 6,000 centrifuges and vows that his country will shut down 40% of global oil supply if attacked.


Natural gas is oversold and a bounce to the high $10s is probably in order in the next week or two. The fundamental tightness that was in place for most of the Spring and early Summer has shown some signs of abating as increased drilling in resource plays

If I don't get to it tonight look for a recap of rig counts which continue to grow into the second half as expected with the acceleration in North American capex as well as the usual Monday sector multiple updates, Stocks We Care About Today, Holding Wiki update and more in the Monday post ...

One Response to “Wrap – Week Ended 07/25/08”

  1. 1
    jsaun14 Says:


    Just caught the SunT. RobMurphy upgrade of NFX. Not much impact yesterday.

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