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The portfolios had a decent week despite lack of oil price traction in anticipation of OPEC+8 further accelerating de-curtailment. This acceleration for June was confirmed on Saturday at May's bigger 411,000 bopd increment but it should largely be in prices outside of a soft open on Monday. U.S. cracks remain supportive of strong throughput and imports remain at the bottom end of the seasonal range.
On the natural gas front we should see more firming near term as injection sizes shrink with the early days of summer heat. Production is leveling out and may see some associated gas from oily basins edge lower near term. Net exports remain strong. And demand is about pick back up seasonally.
Earnings season comes to a head this week as we have >20 names of interest (many of which we own) reporting 1Q25 results. The latest calendar can be seen here. So far 2025 outlooks have been fairly consistent with the initial 2025 guidance. However, only a few really oily names have reported so far this season and with the 12 month WTI strip now under $60 we could see the script altered to reflect the new near-term reality. Expect one or two smaller names to ease back on spending with most taking a wait and see approach.
Free Stuff Last Week:
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Have a good weekend,
Z
This week we are looking for a slightly smaller build at 100 to 105 Bcf (consensus is +100 Bcf)
Last week was +107 Bcf vs our +105 Bcf and Street +115 Bcf
Year Ago: +81 Bcf.
Five Year Average: +79 Bcf.
EIA STEO Watch: We get the May EIA STEO on Tuesday. We expect to see another reduction in their U.S. oil production forecast.
The Last Week slide show is updated
https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/last-week/
WTI opened down 4%, starting to lift a bit now.