T.G.I.F.

Housekeeping Watch:

• If you have suggestions or need to contact us please use zmanalpha@gmail.com 
• If you click the Z4 logo at the top of the screen this will always take you to the latest post.

In today's post please find:

• the natural gas storage slide show,
• next week's storage thoughts, 
• natural gas macro update parts 1 to 4,
• comments from Majors,
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get US nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 am EST (F = 133,000; last month was 228,000),
• We get the unemployment rate at 8:30 am EST (F = 4.2%, last read was 4.2%),
• We get hourly wages at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.3%)
• We get factory orders at 10 am (F = 4.3% (pre tariff surge), last month was 0.6%). 

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h 
3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
4. Stuff We Care About Today - Gas Macro Update, next week's calendar, XOM, CVX, VTS, EOG 
5. Odds & Ends

 

Holdings Watch:

• Please see the tables and trade blotters for each using the C links.
• We've been sitting on our buy button for weeks now and largely continue to. 
  • We're getting closer to some buys and potentially some sells.
  • We are looking at:
    • Gassy adds in AR, CRK, GPOR (all 3 monitored), and MNR (YIELD)
      • AR reports next week and we could see a sub $30 entry. 
      • For CRK we are thinking any day now near current levels. 
      • and GPOR could be a sub $150 or sub $140 entry. 
      • MNR should look better with gas falling into the current $3 ish range given their hedges near $3.70. 
    • Oily adds in CHRD (Bakken, INVEST), CIVI (DJ/Permian INVEST), PR (Permian, INVEST), REPX (Permian, monitored), VTLE (Permian, FLEX) and VTS (Bakken, YIELD).
      • But we want more time and some sideways traction to be established in oil. Given the ongoing Iran and Russia talks as well as new rumored actions by OPEC we are content to continue to hold off near-term  
    • We may sell the piece of GEV in FLEX closer to $400. 

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil closed up $1.03 yesterday at $59.24, moving up after Saudi seemed to quell supply rumors and on the Iran Watch below. 

• Iran Watch:  President Trump said he will sanction any company or country that buys oil or petrochemical products from Iran. 
• This morning crude is trading down slightly. 

Natural gas closed up $0.15 to settle at $3.48 on a smaller than Street expected storage build and a lower daily production reading. 

• The storage withdrawal of +107 Bcf was in line with our +105 Bcf number and below the Street's +115 Bcf consensus.  
  • Next week we are looking for a small build near 100 to 105 Bcf. 
    • Vs +81 Bcf a year ago.
    • Vs +79 Bcf 5 year average.
• Production Watch: BNEF put production at 103.2 Bcfgpd yesterday,
• LNG Watch: BNEF put LNG exports at 14.7 Bcfgpd yesterday,
• This morning gas is trading flat. 

Selected Interesting Week Supply and Demand Table / Charts

LNG exports holding up well

Exports to Mexico toying with record (for time of year or otherwise) territory

Canadian imports as expected are falling seasonally

While Production is starting to level out ...

... Yielding Immaterial YoY Supply Growth.  

Natural Gas Storage Review 

.

Please see full stack of graphs on the Natural Gas Storage Slide Show page above

Stuff We Care About Today

Natural Gas Macro Update - Production continues to outpace supply. Demand remains strong. We remain confident in natural gas prices remaining > $4 on average this year. 

Demand - Cold weather yields two record months to start the year. Gas-fired electrical generation was impacted by renewables.

Imports and Exports - Expecting Canada to retreat, Mexico to inch up, and LNG to really rise in 2025. February was the start of this and we expect more as more monthly data arrives for 2Q and then again in 2H25.

Production - Growing at a measured pace in 2025 with definite skew to 2H25 and higher 2026 likely.

Supply -  Supply remains tame relative to demand.

Next Week's Calendar 

Other Stuff:

XOM 1Q25 Notable Comments

• U.S. oil volumes were down 3.4% sequentially at 1.418 mm bopd in 1Q25 vs 1.468 mm bopd in 4Q24.
  • In 1Q24 volmes were 0.816 mm bopd.  This was before acquiring PXD (Pioneer).
• U.S. natural gas volumes were 3.266 Bcfgpd in 1Q25 vs vs 3.259 in 4Q24.
• No near term guidance for capex or volumes. Permian remains a long term focus.

CVX 1Q25 Notable Comments

• " Worldwide production was relatively flat from a year ago as the impacts of asset sales were
  mostly offset by growth at TCO (20 percent), in the Permian Basin (12 percent), and in the
  Gulf of America (7 percent)."
• "Started production from the Ballymore field in the deepwater Gulf of America (Mississippi Canyon) in April 2025"
  • This is a 75,000 bopd capacity 3 well subsea tieback to the Blind Faith platform.
  • When sanctioned in 2022 this was projected to be a $1.6 B project.
• " U.S. net oil-equivalent production was up 63,000 barrels per day from a year earlier
  primarily due to higher production in the Permian Basin and Gulf of America, partly offset
  by lower production in the Rockies."
• CVX 2025 guidance earlier this year was 3.4 to 3.465 MMBOEpd.
  • GOM was expected to grow by 50,000 BOEpd this year.
  • Permian was expected to grow by 85,000 BOEpd this year.
• They had not added a new presentation at post time but will post one prior to the call at 11 am EST today.

VTS Declares Dividend

• $0.5625 level, second quarter to declare at the new higher level.
• Implied yield of 10.8%.
• We own 1,000 shares in YIELD.

Other notables:

• EOG trimmed capex by $0.2 B on mid to a new range of $5.8 to $6.2 B.  "In light of our strong first quarter performance and potential near-term impacts on global demand due to ongoing discussions regarding tariffs, we are proactively optimizing our full-year 2025 plan".
  • As a result, the company expects to maintain oil production at first quarter 2025 levels for
    the balance of the year and deliver full-year oil production growth of 2% and total production growth of 5%.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

• TBA in comments