02
Jul
Wrap – Week Ended 7/2/21
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No OPEC+ statement until Monday. Currently contemplated increased group output yields lower year end inventory levels as seasonal demand increase far outpaces loosening production curbs and expected non OPEC rebound.
Holdings Watch:
- We added to one placeholder oily position making it core this week.
- The Blotter is updated.
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Tuesday post. Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com
Have a great long weekend.
Z
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Am puzzled about the UAE QUIBBLING. Over a higher OPEC+ base, when one of the EMIRATES [Abu Dhabi] is cutting their production ….5% in August & 15% in September.
UAE’s ADNOC to deepen crude oil term supply cut in Sept -sources | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-adnoc-deepen-crude-oil-term-supply-cut-sept-sources-2021-06-28/
July 3rd, 2021 at 9:49 amhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-01/energy-inflation-gathers-pace-as-european-gas-surges-to-record
Apologies but article “may” be behind paywall: highlights surge in nat gas markets in Europe which prob has effect on US market. Z prob already noted.
July 4th, 2021 at 4:56 pmOil stocks at breakout levels…
July 5th, 2021 at 7:20 amXOP
https://i.postimg.cc/PqmMgVG5/xop-1.png
BCEI
https://i.postimg.cc/hvhTtpYx/bcei-1.png
MGY
https://i.postimg.cc/XNZg3v6P/mgy-1.png
SWN A break of June’s value area high at 5.77 would be a signal for next potential break higher…Buyers have been at or above major acceptance at 5.36 if we see a retest lower.
https://i.postimg.cc/y8WfJyMV/swn.png
AR Consolidating breakout. 14.11 potential support on any pullbacks….
https://i.postimg.cc/GtKBQT5c/ar.png
VEI Near support at 15.12…
July 5th, 2021 at 7:34 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/XJ765ZdK/vei.png
STEM Low volume breakout above June’s value area highs still valid above 35.75..Demand volume positive.
https://i.postimg.cc/L5JXzQLV/stem.png
SHLS Testing multi-month value highs at 35.37. Looking for a test of defined resistance at 36.38 with demand volume remaining strong in multiple time frames…
https://i.postimg.cc/9f39tnPb/shls.png
ARRY Waiting for a catalyst..Buyers have been at or below 15.50…
July 5th, 2021 at 9:42 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/QdMbFw8y/arry11.png
ENPH Not finding buyers in the volume gap (white dashes) with defined supply and resistance above that at 195.17…demand volume still positive but losing steam..
July 5th, 2021 at 9:55 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/Y0kPZR6B/enph.png
OPEC+ meeting cancelled. UAE would not play ball.
July 5th, 2021 at 12:15 pmWTI > $76
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
July 5th, 2021 at 5:33 pmOPEC Watch:
Meeting planned for Monday canceled after UAE would not budge on it’s production baseline reset demands.
UAE has promised to comply with existing production levels,
No date has been set for the next group meeting,
No official statement,
According to Saudi, given no agreement no increase in production has been authorized.
The agreement would have seen a 0.4 mm bopd increase per month beginning in August.
We expect either a new meeting date or a new deal to pop out in 1 or 2 weeks.
July 5th, 2021 at 5:33 pm