14
Feb

Wrap – Week Ended 2/14/20

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First week since the week ended January 3rd that WTI closed green as the Big 3 reporting agencies all cut their global demand estimates roughly as expected and China's teapots began to bargain hunt. EIA also retraced January's forecasting moves, lowering it's outlook for all future quarters for oil and natural gas production estimates. More to come.  Notably, EIA now sees natural gas production as having peaked in 4Q19 and we're showing slightly up to slightly down net supply depending on the week (injections are going to be smaller than some think).
We made a number of adds to the portfolio this week. The Blotter is updated.
We had no free pieces this week but these are not stale:
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Tuesday post (enjoy the long weekend).

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28 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 2/14/20”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    CHINESE HOSPITALS DISCHARGE 9,419 RECOVERED PATIENTS OF CORONAVIRUS INFECTION – GT

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Interesting reading watch

    https://www.dexerto.com/cars/bill-gates-explains-the-main-problem-with-electric-cars-after-buying-one-1328723

    Summary:
    1) price tag
    2) range and recharge time
    3) insurance price tag

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    IRAN WILL NEVER HOLD TALKS WITH ITS LONGTIME FOE, THE UNITED STATES, UNDER PRESSURE, PRESIDENT HASSAN ROUHANI SAID IN A TELEVISED NEWS CONFERENCE ON SUNDAY, ADDING THAT TEHRAN’S HELP WAS ESSENTIAL TO ESTABLISH SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    IRAN ROUHANI: IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE TO IRAN WHICH PARTY COMES TO POWER IN US ELECTIONS. IRAN WILL ONLY HOLD TALKS WITH US ADMINISTRATION IF THEY RETURN TO JCPOA AND LIFT THE SANCTIONS.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

  6. 6
    Baylor Says:

    Maybe time to start leaning more towards electric companies vs upstream focus? Collapse in NG prices don’t seem to be being passed on to customers in reduced bills so they have to be making enormous profits

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 6 – we’re 40% renewables now. 2 of top 5 names are wind.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 6 – electric companies as in utilities? Not my area. Totally different set up how they get paid and not necessarily more profits as they are regulated on what they can charge. NEE (unowned) is the clean energy utility many in that space are focused on. Opposite of CA based utilities.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    So well said you’d think Fareed was a subscriber. Sanders’ plan is completely infeasible:

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/02/15/exp-gps-0216-fareeds-take.cnn

  10. 10
    james T Says:

    re6 Utilities at least pay dividends

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    re 10 – several of our names pay dividends.

    See here:
    https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    According to dividend.com, the industry average dividend yield is 2.36%

    https://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/utilities/electric-utilities/#tm=3-industry-stocks&r=ES%3A%3ADividendStock%3A%3AStock%23AES–NYSE&f_2=electric-utilities

    COG pays 9 cents per quarter. At $15 that’s 2.4%.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    CHLOROQUINE PHOSPHATE, A MEDICINE THAT HAS BEEN IN THE MARKET FOR MANY YEARS, HAS PROVEN EFFECTIVE IN TREATING CORONAVIRUS AND SHOWS POSITIVE CLINICAL EFFECTS: CHINA’S MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.

  14. 14
    james T Says:

    re10 didn’t mean to imply that they didn’t.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    re 14 – OK I see, it was the “at least” that made me think that.

  16. 16
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Barrons had an article recommending COG and LNG in that sector this weekend.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    re 16 – thanks (LNG, the company right?).

    I guess the author is not fearful of force majeure attempts by China on LNG volumes. While the US currently sends no LNG volumes to China the implication would be that they could cause a global back up. Don’t have exact numbers but much of US LNG is lt contract, low prices are not going to be something they can legally break.

    Also, LNG output was down last week, this is not back up effect, this is planned Cameron LNG site maintenance. So far all the comments I’ve seen about a drop in US LNG exports due to Corona or due to just falling prices have not come to fruition. We’ll see if Corona can change that but so far it doesn’t see likely even as international prices fall.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    That video in 9 is about 4 minutes long, worth watching.

  19. 19
    tomdavis12 Says:

    17 Yes the company.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    re 19 – thanks

    AAPL just warned, won’t make revenue due to Covid-19.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Also, along the same lines as the video in #9

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/02/17/if-they-are-so-alarmed-by-climate-change-why-are-they-so-opposed-to-solving-it/

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Calendar updated, getting busier.

    https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/calendar/

  23. 23
    crysball Says:

    LIGHTS OUT in Tehran and other major Iranian cities……..all unscheduled.
    Also widespread loss of heating in the same cities……even though Nat gas production is well above demand (according to the Iranian Gov’t.)

  24. 24
    crysball Says:

    LIGHT OUT in Tehran and other major Iranian cities.
    Also loss of heating in the same cities……in spite of the claim that Nat. Gas production exceeds demand……..according to Iranian GOv’t.

  25. 25
    Baylor Says:

    23 24 USA cyber?

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    re 24 – they have power outages from time to time, also very heavy snow fall last few days.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    re 25 – could be, could be heavy snow. So far not seeing this as widely reported thing.

  28. 28
    crysball Says:

    Iranian ‘Rasdio Farda’ says the electrical blackout problem is a lack of natural gas

    It also points out the Gov’t production of NG exceeds consumption…..so their is an an obvious credibility issue…..as Iran is purportedly exporting NG to Iraq.

    Interestingly it points to physical distribution issues and absence of NG storage as it affects multiple cities (Tehran, Tabriz), and again shows a failure of the government to provide basic necessities just prior to National elections.

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