.
.
First week since the week ended January 3rd that WTI closed green as the Big 3 reporting agencies all cut their global demand estimates roughly as expected and China's teapots began to bargain hunt. EIA also retraced January's forecasting moves, lowering it's outlook for all future quarters for oil and natural gas production estimates. More to come. Notably, EIA now sees natural gas production as having peaked in 4Q19 and we're showing slightly up to slightly down net supply depending on the week (injections are going to be smaller than some think).
We made a number of adds to the portfolio this week. The Blotter is updated.
We had no free pieces this week but these are not stale:
-
Broadwind - Micro Cap with Towering Potential - up 36% since we wrote the piece a week ago. Earnings at month end.
-
Vestas - Headwinds Shifting to Tailwinds
-
TPIC - A week ago we outlined the guidance and related notes from the investor (our post last Friday (2/7) is still open to the public); look for a new piece here soon; still not expensive even as it punches new near term highs.
-
BCEI - Turning the corner on oustpend
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Tuesday post (enjoy the long weekend).
.
CHINESE HOSPITALS DISCHARGE 9,419 RECOVERED PATIENTS OF CORONAVIRUS INFECTION – GT
Interesting reading watch
https://www.dexerto.com/cars/bill-gates-explains-the-main-problem-with-electric-cars-after-buying-one-1328723
Summary:
1) price tag
2) range and recharge time
3) insurance price tag
IRAN WILL NEVER HOLD TALKS WITH ITS LONGTIME FOE, THE UNITED STATES, UNDER PRESSURE, PRESIDENT HASSAN ROUHANI SAID IN A TELEVISED NEWS CONFERENCE ON SUNDAY, ADDING THAT TEHRAN’S HELP WAS ESSENTIAL TO ESTABLISH SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
IRAN ROUHANI: IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE TO IRAN WHICH PARTY COMES TO POWER IN US ELECTIONS. IRAN WILL ONLY HOLD TALKS WITH US ADMINISTRATION IF THEY RETURN TO JCPOA AND LIFT THE SANCTIONS.
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Maybe time to start leaning more towards electric companies vs upstream focus? Collapse in NG prices don’t seem to be being passed on to customers in reduced bills so they have to be making enormous profits
re 6 – we’re 40% renewables now. 2 of top 5 names are wind.
re 6 – electric companies as in utilities? Not my area. Totally different set up how they get paid and not necessarily more profits as they are regulated on what they can charge. NEE (unowned) is the clean energy utility many in that space are focused on. Opposite of CA based utilities.
So well said you’d think Fareed was a subscriber. Sanders’ plan is completely infeasible:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/02/15/exp-gps-0216-fareeds-take.cnn
re6 Utilities at least pay dividends
re 10 – several of our names pay dividends.
See here:
https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/
According to dividend.com, the industry average dividend yield is 2.36%
https://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/utilities/electric-utilities/#tm=3-industry-stocks&r=ES%3A%3ADividendStock%3A%3AStock%23AES–NYSE&f_2=electric-utilities
COG pays 9 cents per quarter. At $15 that’s 2.4%.
CHLOROQUINE PHOSPHATE, A MEDICINE THAT HAS BEEN IN THE MARKET FOR MANY YEARS, HAS PROVEN EFFECTIVE IN TREATING CORONAVIRUS AND SHOWS POSITIVE CLINICAL EFFECTS: CHINA’S MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.
re10 didn’t mean to imply that they didn’t.
re 14 – OK I see, it was the “at least” that made me think that.
Barrons had an article recommending COG and LNG in that sector this weekend.
re 16 – thanks (LNG, the company right?).
I guess the author is not fearful of force majeure attempts by China on LNG volumes. While the US currently sends no LNG volumes to China the implication would be that they could cause a global back up. Don’t have exact numbers but much of US LNG is lt contract, low prices are not going to be something they can legally break.
Also, LNG output was down last week, this is not back up effect, this is planned Cameron LNG site maintenance. So far all the comments I’ve seen about a drop in US LNG exports due to Corona or due to just falling prices have not come to fruition. We’ll see if Corona can change that but so far it doesn’t see likely even as international prices fall.
That video in 9 is about 4 minutes long, worth watching.
17 Yes the company.
re 19 – thanks
AAPL just warned, won’t make revenue due to Covid-19.
Also, along the same lines as the video in #9
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/02/17/if-they-are-so-alarmed-by-climate-change-why-are-they-so-opposed-to-solving-it/
Calendar updated, getting busier.
https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/calendar/
LIGHTS OUT in Tehran and other major Iranian cities……..all unscheduled.
Also widespread loss of heating in the same cities……even though Nat gas production is well above demand (according to the Iranian Gov’t.)
LIGHT OUT in Tehran and other major Iranian cities.
Also loss of heating in the same cities……in spite of the claim that Nat. Gas production exceeds demand……..according to Iranian GOv’t.
23 24 USA cyber?
re 24 – they have power outages from time to time, also very heavy snow fall last few days.
re 25 – could be, could be heavy snow. So far not seeing this as widely reported thing.
Iranian ‘Rasdio Farda’ says the electrical blackout problem is a lack of natural gas
It also points out the Gov’t production of NG exceeds consumption…..so their is an an obvious credibility issue…..as Iran is purportedly exporting NG to Iraq.
Interestingly it points to physical distribution issues and absence of NG storage as it affects multiple cities (Tehran, Tabriz), and again shows a failure of the government to provide basic necessities just prior to National elections.