14
Feb
Wrap – Week Ended 2/14/20
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First week since the week ended January 3rd that WTI closed green as the Big 3 reporting agencies all cut their global demand estimates roughly as expected and China's teapots began to bargain hunt. EIA also retraced January's forecasting moves, lowering it's outlook for all future quarters for oil and natural gas production estimates. More to come. Notably, EIA now sees natural gas production as having peaked in 4Q19 and we're showing slightly up to slightly down net supply depending on the week (injections are going to be smaller than some think).
We made a number of adds to the portfolio this week. The Blotter is updated.
We had no free pieces this week but these are not stale:
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Broadwind - Micro Cap with Towering Potential - up 36% since we wrote the piece a week ago. Earnings at month end.
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Vestas - Headwinds Shifting to Tailwinds
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TPIC - A week ago we outlined the guidance and related notes from the investor (our post last Friday (2/7) is still open to the public); look for a new piece here soon; still not expensive even as it punches new near term highs.
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BCEI - Turning the corner on oustpend
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Tuesday post (enjoy the long weekend).
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CHINESE HOSPITALS DISCHARGE 9,419 RECOVERED PATIENTS OF CORONAVIRUS INFECTION – GT
February 16th, 2020 at 12:49 amInteresting reading watch
https://www.dexerto.com/cars/bill-gates-explains-the-main-problem-with-electric-cars-after-buying-one-1328723
Summary:
February 16th, 2020 at 12:43 pm1) price tag
2) range and recharge time
3) insurance price tag
IRAN WILL NEVER HOLD TALKS WITH ITS LONGTIME FOE, THE UNITED STATES, UNDER PRESSURE, PRESIDENT HASSAN ROUHANI SAID IN A TELEVISED NEWS CONFERENCE ON SUNDAY, ADDING THAT TEHRAN’S HELP WAS ESSENTIAL TO ESTABLISH SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
February 16th, 2020 at 12:51 pmIRAN ROUHANI: IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE TO IRAN WHICH PARTY COMES TO POWER IN US ELECTIONS. IRAN WILL ONLY HOLD TALKS WITH US ADMINISTRATION IF THEY RETURN TO JCPOA AND LIFT THE SANCTIONS.
February 16th, 2020 at 12:52 pmhttps://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
February 16th, 2020 at 2:59 pmMaybe time to start leaning more towards electric companies vs upstream focus? Collapse in NG prices don’t seem to be being passed on to customers in reduced bills so they have to be making enormous profits
February 16th, 2020 at 3:01 pmre 6 – we’re 40% renewables now. 2 of top 5 names are wind.
February 16th, 2020 at 3:03 pmre 6 – electric companies as in utilities? Not my area. Totally different set up how they get paid and not necessarily more profits as they are regulated on what they can charge. NEE (unowned) is the clean energy utility many in that space are focused on. Opposite of CA based utilities.
February 16th, 2020 at 3:05 pmSo well said you’d think Fareed was a subscriber. Sanders’ plan is completely infeasible:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/02/15/exp-gps-0216-fareeds-take.cnn
February 16th, 2020 at 6:21 pmre6 Utilities at least pay dividends
February 17th, 2020 at 10:40 amre 10 – several of our names pay dividends.
See here:
February 17th, 2020 at 10:56 amhttps://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/
According to dividend.com, the industry average dividend yield is 2.36%
https://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/utilities/electric-utilities/#tm=3-industry-stocks&r=ES%3A%3ADividendStock%3A%3AStock%23AES–NYSE&f_2=electric-utilities
COG pays 9 cents per quarter. At $15 that’s 2.4%.
February 17th, 2020 at 10:58 amCHLOROQUINE PHOSPHATE, A MEDICINE THAT HAS BEEN IN THE MARKET FOR MANY YEARS, HAS PROVEN EFFECTIVE IN TREATING CORONAVIRUS AND SHOWS POSITIVE CLINICAL EFFECTS: CHINA’S MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.
February 17th, 2020 at 11:01 amre10 didn’t mean to imply that they didn’t.
February 17th, 2020 at 11:43 amre 14 – OK I see, it was the “at least” that made me think that.
February 17th, 2020 at 11:48 amBarrons had an article recommending COG and LNG in that sector this weekend.
February 17th, 2020 at 12:06 pmre 16 – thanks (LNG, the company right?).
I guess the author is not fearful of force majeure attempts by China on LNG volumes. While the US currently sends no LNG volumes to China the implication would be that they could cause a global back up. Don’t have exact numbers but much of US LNG is lt contract, low prices are not going to be something they can legally break.
Also, LNG output was down last week, this is not back up effect, this is planned Cameron LNG site maintenance. So far all the comments I’ve seen about a drop in US LNG exports due to Corona or due to just falling prices have not come to fruition. We’ll see if Corona can change that but so far it doesn’t see likely even as international prices fall.
February 17th, 2020 at 12:12 pmThat video in 9 is about 4 minutes long, worth watching.
February 17th, 2020 at 12:17 pm17 Yes the company.
February 17th, 2020 at 2:42 pmre 19 – thanks
AAPL just warned, won’t make revenue due to Covid-19.
February 17th, 2020 at 4:09 pmAlso, along the same lines as the video in #9
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/02/17/if-they-are-so-alarmed-by-climate-change-why-are-they-so-opposed-to-solving-it/
February 17th, 2020 at 4:10 pmCalendar updated, getting busier.
https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/calendar/
February 17th, 2020 at 5:25 pmLIGHTS OUT in Tehran and other major Iranian cities……..all unscheduled.
February 17th, 2020 at 9:14 pmAlso widespread loss of heating in the same cities……even though Nat gas production is well above demand (according to the Iranian Gov’t.)
LIGHT OUT in Tehran and other major Iranian cities.
February 17th, 2020 at 9:19 pmAlso loss of heating in the same cities……in spite of the claim that Nat. Gas production exceeds demand……..according to Iranian GOv’t.
23 24 USA cyber?
February 18th, 2020 at 12:48 amre 24 – they have power outages from time to time, also very heavy snow fall last few days.
February 18th, 2020 at 2:38 amre 25 – could be, could be heavy snow. So far not seeing this as widely reported thing.
February 18th, 2020 at 2:44 amIranian ‘Rasdio Farda’ says the electrical blackout problem is a lack of natural gas
It also points out the Gov’t production of NG exceeds consumption…..so their is an an obvious credibility issue…..as Iran is purportedly exporting NG to Iraq.
Interestingly it points to physical distribution issues and absence of NG storage as it affects multiple cities (Tehran, Tabriz), and again shows a failure of the government to provide basic necessities just prior to National elections.
February 18th, 2020 at 7:06 am