21
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 12/20/19

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Another strong week in energyland and for our portfolio, as if someone flipped a switch and said dis(cover) in the wake of OPEC+.  Note the red and green boxes below. Group remains well overdone to the downside with regard to the products they sell.

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Other Items of Note:

  • Oil rigs bounced 18 week to week. Some moderation is to be expected. Also end of year numbers can be spotty and that's a big swing. Likely some are grabbing rigs to kick of 2020 programs as 2019 long ran out of capex and no one, really almost no one, wants to bust a 2019 budget to keep efficient crews, etc.  Not this year.
  • While rigs may have caught a little respite, we note that spreads were not so lucky. The Primary Vision (link to graph) frac spread count sank 13 to 320, lowest level of 2019 (in fact it's the lowest since mid 2017) and down 33% from the April (cycle peak spread) high of 475.
    • Pressure pumper Superior Energy Services (SPNV - not owned by us) quit the pressure pumping business.
    • We continue to own high end player LBRT - see our last Seeking Alpha piece here. Others removing capacity from the field can only help Liberty in the coming year.
  • Our view has been that the EIA STEO has U.S. oil production too high in 2020.  We're seeing more analysts reflect that thinking as well. And EIA's WPSR is no longer reporting up and to the right volumes every three weeks but is instead is taking a bit more measured pace. Not all incremental Permian pipeline capacity will mean TIL incremental volumes. See Cushing of late. Volumes are draining back the other way.

Holdings Watch:

  • The trade Blotter is updated.
  • The Positions page is updated (priced through last Thursday).
  • We had a position add and took a new position this week (see Friday's post for that one, more soon).
  • We have a number of suddenly profitable "Trading on top of Core" positions.
  • We note several names registered improving technical looks last week, again.

Curious about our site?  

  • Check out the Monday and Tuesday posts from this week.
  • They should give you an idea of what we do
  • and incidentally they covered our views on the WPX acquisition of private Felix (we added to our WPX at the end of the conference call at $11.31 average cost) including a pro forma view of the companies in that Tuesday post.
  • They are both open to the public.
  • Our check out last week's Wrap which contained a run down of what it is that we do and offer. As well as a special offer. Click here to go there.

Have other questions?  Contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com

Have a great weekend.

5 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 12/20/19”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Bloom 2019 highlights video:

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Free posts on SA this week:

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4312710-montage-resources-oily-natural-gas-player-still-inexpensive-despite-q4-19-run

  3. 3
    Baylor Says:

    UGAZ setting up for a massive coiled spring rip higher? Been near unprecedented levels of NG shorts. I plan to start accumulating Monday or Tuesday

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    re 3 – over due for a bounce, again.

  5. 5
    Monday Morning | Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… Says:

    […] zman on Wrap – Week Ended 12/20/19 […]

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