Friday Morning – ENPH

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Market Sentiment Watch: Payrolls, rates in focus.  In today's post please find the oil inventory review (better than expected headline numbers and strong internal yield a positive report (as weeklies go), the natural gas preview (slightly bigger than expected injection but still within the bounds of historic norms for the week despite all the extra production), comments and a cheat sheet on ENPH, and some other odds and ends.  We get the OPEC and IEA Monthlies late next week. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 130,000 vs a forecasts of 170,000 and vs last month's 159,000 (revised from a prior 164,000),
  • Unemployment rate was 3.7, unchanged and in line with forecasts,
  • Average hourly earnings came in at 0.4% vs a forecast of 0.3% and last month's 0.3%. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - ENPH
  6. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ... .

Holdings Watch:   


  • Yesterday's Trades: None
  • The Blotter is updated.
  • Look for structural changes to the ZLT VERY NEAR TERM based upon our view of what's working and what's not as we move into the back half of 2019 and look ahead to 2020 (even more focus on free cash, return of cash (we'd like more names to pay us to wait), and even stronger balance sheets).  Look for some names to be released from the portfolio.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil closed up $0.04 yesterday at $56.30, after trading as high at $57.76 on the across the board better than expected EIA weekly report and supported by China trade deal hopes until a bounce in the dollar appeared to help tame the jump. The front month now looks like this. This morning crude is trading close to $55.25 in the wake of weaker payrolls data. 

  • OPEC Watch: Saudi's crown prince and Iraq's prime minister met to discuss the importance of oil market cooperation. About time. 
  • China Watch:  India is taking tankers of US oil previously bound for China but now diverted due to the 5% tariff placed on U.S.

Natural gas closed down $0.01 at $2.435 (holding at 6 week highs) after EIA reported a larger than expected injection (that still stayed within the range of injections for the week).  We expect a slightly large injection next week.  This morning gas is trading off a penny. 

Supply / Demand Balance Watch:

NGL Price Watch:

Natural Gas Inventory Review


Oil Inventory Review



Stuff We Care About Today

ENPH (Unowned) - Enphase Energy, Inc. ~ Starter Piece

The Basic Story:  ENPH is an advanced microinverter and home energy management company.  Inverters are the part of the solar system that converts DC from the solar panels to AC usable in the home (on demand or stored) or metered back to the grid; they are the brains of the solar system.   Inverters can be placed in a central location (side of the house for instance) handling a number of modules in a string or they can be paired one to a single module (microinverters or micros) which are then strung together. This latter method is more efficient as module output varies and one module's performance can impact an array of modules with a central inverter.  ENPH's focus is micros (they claims #1 in residential micros), with some built in microinverters (pre affixed to a module with leading module names), advanced cloud upgradeable software, and hybrid set ups (micros tied to battery storage). The company has shipped over 21 mm micros and went public in early 2012. Growth has been extremely rapid, especially 2019 with high demand in 2H19 leading to distribution chain cost increases. The balance sheet remains strong. The company continues to invest in R&D and will roll out the 8th generation micro inverter soon (see below).   This last is part of their transition from a standard microinverters company to "home energy management systems" company (see products below) with allows for greater revenue penetration for ENPH into each home (their installed base is > 940,000 systems).


  • IQ7 - current microinverter generation (multiple models here including models specifically for intergrade in solar modules for SunPower and others with wide installer acceptance). The iQ7 was 98% of 2Q19 deliveries.
  • IQ8 Micro - latest version, rolls out in around the end of 2019, functions as a normal inverter but also has the speed to form it's own microgrid in combination with products they call Ensemble (see below), automatically transitioning from grid tied to standalone in case of power outage.  Note that on the 2Q19 call they indicated they have shipped 1,000 1Q8's to a partner and expect this figure to rise in 3Q.
  • Ensemble 1.0 will launch over the course of 4Q19 and will be backwards compatible with IQ6 and 7 micros (so they can sell this to much of the current base).
  •    Encharge battery - scalable battery solution for night, clouds, snow, as well as during power outages.  Each of these comes with four IQ8's. 2020 will be the year of real storage growth for them; it just remains to be seen how much growth which is dependent very much upon pricing.
  •    Enpower switch - for grid power outages.
  •    IQ Combiner - connects Ensemble to the cloud for updating and trouble shooting back at Enphase HQ.
  •    Enlighten Cloud software - real time system monitoring with ties to a mobile app as well as to smart home devices like an Echo. "Alexa, how much battery time do we have?".
  • They see moving from a $2,000 per home type product now (just the micro) to a $10,000 per home type environment Ensemble in it's ultimate format.

How They Guide:

  • They guide near quarter revenue in a narrow range,
  • They guide gross margin in a wide range,
  • They guide to Non-GAAP operating expenses,
  • They do not guide, at least in print, in terms of MWs or micros but they generally speak to deliveries on a near quarter basis as well as capacity and release micro sales with each Q.  We do not know if batteries will receive similar guidance treatment.
  • They frequently speak in terms of gross margin, operating expense, and operating income (the big 3%s).

Recent History (2Q19) :

  • Demand continues to outstrip supply.
  • Gross margins were 34.1% and were impacted by extra costs to expedite key component shipments (airmail fees).
  • In the case of 2Q19, their big 3%'s were 34%, 17%, and 17%; a good deal better than their base guidance of 30%, 20%, 10%
  • Capacity is ramping as noted in the cheat.

Balance Sheet: In good shape, no net debt.


  • Legal - small value China suit in progress.
  • Customer feedback: Solid, improving; quality and customer service are key focuses for management.
  • Short Interest: 9%
  • Tariffs:  Costs were initially shared with customers and they are working to increase capacity in Mexico and are shipping IQ7's out of Mexico now from a Flextronics site.
  • Analyst Coverage:  8 analysts on the last call.
  • Competitor: Primarily SEDG (unonwed).
  • ITC - same as with others, if the federal solar tax credit is allowed to ultimately expire (it falls from 30% at year end to 26% in 2020 and is gone by 2022) it becomes a drag on growth. In the interim safe harbor action (giving installers/buyers a 4 year extension ont the credit) means that some purchases will need to be made for those looking to claim the credit by the end of this year, leading to a year end buying spree (included in the guidance below).

Nutshell:  We plan to own it. Lower. Stock price action has been super hot this year.  Not always the case, see the stock price in 2018, but with strong demand and record revenues and the promise of a new generation of products they've run.  They note having 100% of SPRW's (unowned) micro inverter business and are ramping with other names as well. Batteries are around the corner. Our sense is that while all the good news of 2019 has helped and their prospects have likely rarely looked better, the reaction in the stock this year is also a function of the green new deal push.  We'd like to see it fill the gaps created by earnings beats earlier this year.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • Goldman reduced a number of upstream and service targets this morning. Varying levels of chop, we'll put out a list in comments. 

83 Responses to “Friday Morning – ENPH”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Iran Watch:

    Iran cranking up centrifuge R&D

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch – Goldman – Gassy names.

    AR (unowned) cut from $7.25 to $3.75. 48% reduction.

    EQT (unowned) cut from $20 to $12.25. -39%

    COG cut from $25.50 to $21. -18%

    I do not see a mention of MR, not sure if they still cover it.

    RRC (unowned) cut from $7.50 to $3.75. -50%

    SWN (unowned) cut from $2.50 to $1.50. -40%

  3. 3
    Geno Says:

    Forgive me if this has been reported but GEP has a four well blowout going Southeast of Shreveport friend of mine was flying back from the LSU game on Saturday and could see the fire from 100 miles out.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch – Goldman – ZLT oil names – just 2 I see.

    FANG – Cut from $129 to $125, down 3%

    CLR (personal only – Cut from $44 to $36, down 18%

    I don’t see OAS or PE in their cuts.

    WPX – $13 to $12.50. Cut by 4%.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 3 – Geno, thanks, no I had not seen that. Is that GDP (unowned) – Goodrich?

  6. 6
    Geno Says:

    No GEP is Geosouthern and independent. It was a four well pad they had just finished fracing the fourth well when it lit up and then lit the other wells up as well, Guess the heat melted the flow lines on the other well heads. Probably burning 300+ million a day. It lights up the night sky.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 6 – OK thanks, private player, bad week for George Bishop but he’s had many good ones. Hope all OK.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 7 – he owns an island in the Bahamas as well.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    AR (unowned) cut from Buy to Neutral at Goldman. Cites lower than expected NG and NGL prices.

    Goldman says activity in Appalachian Basin starting to slow.

    Sees continued reduction in growth expectations.

    Maybe counter intuitive to them but slowing growth in a good thing for those names. Less $ out, less volume growth, but likely better commodity price.

    COG has already cut the 2020 forecast, they did it early, it’s what shocked the stock price with 2Q. They guide conservatively on capex (likely it goes under) and on volumes (often goes over).

    The sellside really needs to decide what it wants from the group. COG cuts that 2020 forecast and says it will still be FCF positive and the analysts jump ship on targets due to lower growth. Yet COG is optimizing spend, volume, free cash, return of cash equation.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Oil dipping below $55 as equity futures faded post payrolls.


  11. 11
    zman Says:

    ENPH (unowned) – trades like momentum stock. Momo fade in progress. Fall little ENPH, fall for a while.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Oil not falling off a cliff, hanging at $55.25+ now.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Kudlow on CNBC says the payrolls number was actually a blowout.

  14. 14
    zman Says:


  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Most names off 1 to 3% so far today, no runaway Friday selloff.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Jerome, Nrgy, Brod, others – when you get a chance can you take a look at ENPH (unonwed) from a sort of medium term TA read? Thanks, my layman’s TA says gaps get filled. I don’t see a reason why the one at $10 does but that’s kind of tricky. Could be a good trade after the first fill at about $21. $24.40 now and falling. Thanks again.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Defense secretary says Iran is inching toward talks.

    Iran continues to deny.

    Pressure increasing almost daily on them.

    Talks would not mean sanctions come off.

    Iran abandoned all limits on R&D

    US says it may go after anyone found fueling Iranian tankers (port countries or the companies themselves?).

    Talk out there that Israel is concerned about closer Saudi and UAE relations with Iran (not close but less far apart than at times). Talk that US won’t hit Iran nuclear program but might not stand in way of Israel doing so.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    HPR green and increasingly interesting from a technical perspective after forming a higher low post 2Q results. Big quarters coming there.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    HPR is 20% of float short. Thinking it’s squeeze time.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    AR (unowned) – down 9%
    RRC (unonwed) – down 7%

    COG down 0.5%.

    CRK (unowned) the big standout in the group at the moment, making the strongest technical move.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Group greening. COG green now, HPR breaking on out but still low volumes. OAS green.

    Oil approaching $56 now and looking to close the week green.

  22. 22
    elduque Says:

    Nat Gas well above 50 dma at 2.25 and starting to slope upwards.

  23. 23
    Baylor Says:

    NG seems to be an epic short squeeze. A little earlier than I expected. Wonder how sustainable it is

  24. 24
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 21: Gap fill rebounds in place for both USO and XOP. Technical trading at work. XOP looking constructive technically, but moving closer to a ST upside resistance level at $22.67–where price enters a low-volume trading gap that fills at $23.20, just below the declining 50 dma.

  25. 25
    nrgyman Says:

    This report claims producers are risking $2.2T in wasted investments if gov’ts impose stricter cuts to carbon emissions.


  26. 26
    Viper1 Says:

    ENPH is a big MOMO play Z

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    On a call

  28. 28
    Viper1 Says:

    ENPH probably washed most of the fast traders out at the 50 ma good spot to start a position IMO

  29. 29
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #16. $enph i really don’t have an actionable trade/pattern here. $pe. Looks good below $17

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    re 29 – thanks.

  31. 31
    Viper1 Says:

    IMO could close the earning gap 21.65 close if it was to violate that support it may have other issues TA read

  32. 32
    Jerome Blank Says:

    $crc on a pullback. Looking for $14. I’m currently long

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    re 28 – my thought is it fully takes out the gap on a market move day and I can think about DCA’ing in.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    re 32 – Goldman did a number on the target there this am.

  35. 35
    Viper1 Says:

    Thanks for your write up Z very helpful

  36. 36
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Someone is buying the long P&F tail on $ enph. I just don’t have a trade yet. I need it lower /consolidate a bit

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Rig Count Watch

    Oil down 4 to 738 vs 860 a year ago,

    Natural Gas down 2 to 160 vs 186

    HZ rigs down 1 to 783 vs 918

    OK down 5 to 75 vs 137 a year ago

    TX down 3 to 438 vs 528

    Permian down 2 to 427 vs 484

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    re 35 – re ?

  39. 39
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 32: Ditto

    RE 33: Ditto

    OXY heavy call buying presented by Dr J on CNBC last hour.

    Oil Rigs -4 to 738

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Oil Gas
    YTD Rig Change (147) (38)
    -17% -19%

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    re 35 – Oh, ENPH (unowned) – hey you’re welcome, your the first to comment on a solar write up on the site.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Oil rose into and after rigs:


    Group busy giving back half of yesterday’s gains on low volumes.

    Anyone see a broker note on OAS?

  43. 43
    Viper1 Says:

    Thx ENPH feedback will watch for gap fill

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Permian diffs remain positive

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    re 43 – cool.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    OT grabbing lunch, back in a bit.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    By the way, BE (unowned) creeping off the lows.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Just be advised on BE (unowned) – wrote this in last Friday’s post.

    BE (Unowned) Quick Update

    We published our first piece on distributed power provider Bloom in July. At $12. It was a basic background piece and we said the name was interesting but had not bought into it yet. That piece can be accessed here.

    That was then …

    But a month has passed and they reported 2Q19 results just after our piece and warned for 2020 … and the stock is now at $4.18.

    2Q19: It was strong for deliveries but a bit messy in terms of an accounting change.

    System acceptances were 271 (up 50% YoY on the base 100 Kw system; new quarterly record), in the upper half of their 250 to 280 guidance,
    10 customers in 8 industries
    Adjusted Revenue of $193.2 mm, down 4% sequentially and up from $168.9 mm in 2Q18. There was a change in how some expenses were netted from revenue vs prior guidance with the quarter. This may have caused some confusion at report time.
    Gross margin fell YoY to 17.8% this quarter vs 19.4% in the year ago quarter.
    Gross margin ex stock based comp was 22.3% up from 20.7% a year ago.
    EBITDA was 21.9 mm but adjusted for the change was $12.8 mm vs $12.5 mm in 2Q18.
    They noted that 4th generation Bloom development is on track.
    They noted 3 of the U.S.’s largest power companies have validated Bloom with large orders.
    They reiterated the recent announcement that Blooms now run on hydrogen which can be used to augment solar/wind set ups.
    And they reiterated that they are working on biogas operations (more news soon) and hinted at coming news on a decarbonization project including Bloom servers.
    And they ended with the usual comments about lack of reliable grid power due to climate change (blackouts, fire or otherwise related), unclean backup power with a nod towards cancer risk from the prolonged used of diesel generators. All things they can address at the customer level noting their systems operated through recent hurricanes, fires, and earthquakes.
    Looking Ahead:

    Guidance for 3Q pointed to higher deliveries (see cheat) along with higher selling prices (but see below).
    Looking Further Ahead However:

    But looking beyond that the company said it sees headwinds and listed their thoughts on 2020:

    California market impacted by PG&E bankruptcy
    New York market impacted by New York’s suppression of natural gas imports and lack of actual gas volumes to supply incremental BE systems.
    Therefore the flow of new orders is below pace.
    And they have gotten highest pricing in those two markets, so with fewer orders in both in 2020 they said their revenue and earnings numbers for 2020 may be out of line the Street. Orders in line with current expectations but a different mix.
    Based on orders in 2019, 2020 will be slower growth (given time lag from order to acceptance of as much as 12 months); slower but positive.
    One analyst on the call thought they had seen order cancellations which they refuted and instead referred to orders as delayed.
    They see 2020 as an anomaly.
    In 2020 however they have guided to slower growth, lower average selling prices with the growth leading to basically flat revenue and this, combined with another year of double digit declines in costs to help offset the lower ASPs.
    They did reiterate that they plan to be cash flow neutral to positive next year.
    This commentary was nowhere to be found in the 2Q press release. It was all covered in the 2Q call. And the stock tanked as they pulled a fast one (in my view) on the call. Probably leads to trust issues for years to come. Question for us is, as non owners, do we like the product and is the name washed out yet on 2020 expectations and do we buy into a longer term recovery for growth. In brief, yes, don’t know, and most probably. We are mulling taking a position. We saw targets fall from the $30s to the $20s and mid teens post call. Not to $4. Estimates for 2019 are up slightly post call. Estimates for 2020 and 2021 were slashed with revenue down 15% and 20% respectively and EBITDA down 33% and 39% respectively.

    With the stock down 64% since our piece, and trading about 30% below pre 2Q report 2020 TEV/EBITDA levels we are watching for upcoming events which may technically ground the name.

  49. 49
    sea bull Says:


  50. 50
    zman Says:

    and here’s the link with that to show the cheat sheet:


  51. 51
    zman Says:

    re 49 – yeah, that was then I guess.

  52. 52
    sea bull Says:

    wrong link.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    re 52 – Oh OK, I thought you were pointing out the irony.

  54. 54
    nrgyman Says:

    Rig Count: The Williston Basin +3 is an outlier. Declines or zeroes everywhere else. Is this a seasonal characteristic or something else?

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    MR – starting to look more constructive. Fundamentals superior to many other “gassy” names. Better Revenue/Mcfe than all but AR (unowned), but with lower costs among the more liquids rich names. EBITDA per Mcfe well above unowned AR, RRC, SWN … in line with all gas COG who is super low cost, and then note as strong as CRK (unowned) who is more debted but higher margin and materially outperforming in recent weeks and especially this week. A lot of courage comes in on improved markets.

  56. 56
    sea bull Says:

    re 53 – Nope, I’m not that clever. I thought I had a link to an amendment CRC had with lenders to buy back 2nd lien debt. It referenced a Barclay’s presentation CRC gave earlier this week. Oh well, I can’t find my car keys half the time no wonder I can’t find an article I just read.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    re 54 – would not be seasonal.

    Weekly Williston since start of year is pretty flat after an early year rally. This is week 1 2019 to present.


  58. 58
    zman Says:

    re 56 – me either, this?


  59. 59
    nrgyman Says:

    re 57: Thanks. Looks like they took the Williston rig count down from a peak of 61 in early spring to 47 mid-summer and then added back +7 rigs (a 15% increase) in the last month when rigs have been dropping almost everywhere else. Have the economics (costs and/or net realizations) of the Williston improved to encourage this?

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    re 59 – not really, not in that short amount of time at least. It’s generally less sensitive to current economics than that and more a function of plan. More that a few may have taken a bit of a drilling hiatus as they got ahead of plan on drilling efficiencies and didn’t want to outspend. So they back off, let their frac spread work down the inventory to more of an expected level, and then go back to work. That many rigs from the trough makes it more than than one operator.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Group still trying to green.

    I have to run a quick errand, back in 20 minutes.

  62. 62
    nrgyman Says:

    Natgas prices at Waha hub getting a boost as a big KMI pipeline begins to come online.


  63. 63
    zman Says:

    re 62 – thank you. Waha has been getting better for little while now on pipe adds on average but all over the map day to day still.

    Wed $1.02 below Henry Hub
    Th $1.59 below

    A week ago Thursday $1.02 below.

    But yep, in general improving as Gulf Coast Express Approaches, tighter time frame vs oil which advanced much further ahead of new capacity but, it’s gas, so has more worry on demand still.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    That pipe is a Oct 1 start up.

  65. 65
    zman Says:


  66. 66
    zman Says:

    “We are confident that the UK, France, and Germany – indeed, all civilized nations – will take decisive actions to stop Iran’s nuclear extortion.” ~ Pompeo

    Sounds like any talks at the UN are going to be fun.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Second week of consecutive green. We remain well overdone to downside given where oil is.

  68. 68
    nrgyman Says:

    AR downgrade to Neutral by GS color:


    I understand the analyst concerns about not having a Buy rating on Appa natgas players. However, the analysis here leaves me smh.

    He is using pre-hedge ebitda analysis on AR? That is weak and so is his related finding that AR is expensive vs peers. His concern with capital costs and op costs is fine, but every name that doesn’t do what is planned in that direction has downside risks. He gave no reason why AR won’t achieve their cost targets.

    Looks like he just didn’t want a Buy rating on AR and gave weak reasons to justify it. The Neutral rating I get, but analysts should do better than this.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    re 68 – Brian Singer has been like the grim reaper on both oil and gas calls. See that target drop on EQT (unowned). He went after COG in favor of EQT last year. Now compare targets. I have trouble seeing how Rice folks made things worse vs where he was on it post acquisition.

  70. 70
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 69: Yep. Seems a bit disingenuous to ignore AR’s hedge book, which is one of their long-term competitive advantages. And if he is going there, how did he get a Buy rating on AR to begin with?

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    re 70 great question.

    Beerthirty, the wrap will be out tomorrow. Green week. Small yeah.

  72. 72
    RMD Says:

    Another GE wind turbine collapses in Brazil
    SA News•Yesterday, 2:19 PM•
    on SAlpha

  73. 73
    sea bull Says:

    re 58 – yes. interesting they have been chipping away at the 2L debt that is selling for 30% off par, but this gives them the ability to use the revolver for purchases above par. Not sure why a bank would let do that unless something was about to be sold (or another JV). Just seemed odd. CEO alluded to it during his barclay presentation. thanks

  74. 74
    Michael Says:

    Re: 20

    I think the CRK move was due to institutional accumulation from meetings in NY this week led by Barclays.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    re 72 – yep thanks, saw that. GE has been having trouble with gas turbines for the last couple of years, not surprised to see a few mechanical failures on wind turbines. If you google by video on the internet there are some pretty catastrophic failures from years ago during operation.

    re 74 – thanks. Keeps defying group.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Purported video of Gino’s fire:


  77. 77
    official site Says:

    official site

    Friday Morning – ENPH | Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc…

  78. 78
    www.socaltreatmentcenter.com/2018/11/13/characteristics-of-a-good-rehab-center Says:


    Friday Morning – ENPH | Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc…

  79. 79
    Michael Says:

    Natural gas investment helped pay for Ezekiel Elliott


  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Nustar exports to double to 500,000 bopd.


  81. 81
    powered by Says:

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  82. 82
    CC???-?? – Are these the worst articles ever Says:

    CC???-?? – Are these the worst articles ever

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  83. 83
    Wrap – Week Ended 09/07/19 | Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… Says:

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