19
Nov

Wrap – Week Ended 11/18/16

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The ZLT was up nearly 4% last week and is up 32.8% YTD.  The XOP was up nearly 5% last week and is up 26.9% YTD. 

Last week was notable for being one of the first, but not last weeks, in which the U.S. was a net exported of natural gas.  Natural gas bottoming continued on schedule as we are at peak or within a week of it for storage and while the winter forecast improved on Friday and it's still not going to be warmer than normal, the underlying fundamental picture for natural gas continues to improve.  

Please see last Thursday's post for the Oil Inventory Review and last Friday's post for the Natural Gas Inventory Review. 

The Trading Blotter is updated.

Below please find requested major Non OPEC player oil production graphs (JODI, OPEC, EIA, and country data).

Below these please find the OPEC country data (including some primary source data).

Below that please find The Wrap table. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

 

non-opec-oil-111816

 

opec-13-111816

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wrap-111816

8 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 11/18/16”

  1. 1
    crysball Says:

    Z, Any idea what is driving the jump  in all 3 classes  of Tanker day rates?

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/147485/Iran_Oil_May_Rise_to_55_if_All_Producers_Cooperate?rss=true

    re 1 – those are cargo/dry bulks, been rocketing higher since the election. 

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Please look for some performance notes in tomorrow's post. 

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Early Sunday evening trading near $47

    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

     

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    NG up 3% as we approach peak storage within range (near top of it) set out in Spring  Inflection point achieved. 

    http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Iraq proposal to help with cut implementation

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iraq-to-offer-proposals-on-output-cuts-at-opec-meeting-2016-11-20

  7. 7
    brodway Says:

    The tone is changing……if the deal gets done on November 30th, oil should approach if not exceed $50 handle….this should propel oil equities higher and should shift focus of money managers towards energy sector again….in a bigger way….i think there's going to be money entering sector towards year end as oil has several positive variables going for it….for one OPEC's more positive tone towards cooperation…..new administration being more tolerant of oil industry and support of its growth minus the tenuous restrictions…..US companies being economic at much lower oil prices and ability to survive and compete

  8. 8
    Baylor Says:

    I'm watching closely as I have a few airline trades on.  Will be interesting to see what oil does in the lead up to OPEC on 11/30

    Also interesting that Buffett put on some big airline trades for the first time in 20 years or more especially since airlines have historically been a terrible investment.

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