12
Nov

Wrap – Week Ended 11/11/16

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The ZLT was up 4% last week and is up 30.6% year to date. The XOP was up 5% and is up 20.4% year to date.

Please see the Calendar page for the final edition of the 3Q16 So Far update.

Our sense is that natural gas is approaching an inflection point with improved fundamentals and peak storage roughly 2 weeks away and absolute storage not blown out. 

Questions under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

If you have questions at the site please contact us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com

Have a good weekend. 

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2 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 11/11/16”

  1. 1
    nrgyman Says:

    Interesting:  Iran deal could be in jeopardy with Trump–and sanctions re-imposed.  Hard to know what the new POTUS will go after with priority, but it is another uncertainty.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-11-13/donald-trump-could-be-new-best-friend-to-opec

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – had some thoughts on that under the Friday post:

    Interesting thoughts on Iran deal in a Trump world. Let me know if that link doesn't work for you. A warning, it's pretty partisan but from a guy who wan in the know on the topic in the past.  

    I think the author's thoughts that it's about business and not security are far fetched. The sanctions relief comment is what I find interesting and largely forgotten. Those sanctions must be periodically renewed and in the end I see the deal being scrapped and a likely return of crude limiting sanctions

    Some have said what could he really do to scrape the deal, pointing to the UN.  I'd say skip to page 5 of the article for thoughts on that. 

     If Iran does saber rattle (what the author calls Iranian provocations) then I see this deal unraveling either way.   The author makes a very interesting point about Russia / Iran relations being "transactional" as well. 

    http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/energy/Whats%20next%20for%20the%20Iran%20deal%20jsb2.pdf?utm_source=Center+on+Global+Energy+Policy+Mailing+List&utm_campaign=0bd8b6b872-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0773077aac-0bd8b6b872-102146293

    Also, to add a little heavy water to the fire, it came out earlier this week that Iran is in violation of their stockpile limits of heavy water. They said they'd work to get it back down. Preferable not by turning it into plutonium I'd guess. 

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