19
Oct
Wrap – Week Ended 10/17/14
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Questions / comments under the wrap table will be addressed in the Monday Post.
Holdings Watch:
- We came off the bench early with Trading and Core Position adds in the ZLT.
- The Blotter is updated.
If you have questions about the site please email them to zman@zmansenergybrain.com
Rouhani Tells Iran Oil Minister to Halt Decline in Oil Prices
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
October 19th, 2014 at 11:33 amtold Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh last week to use “oil
diplomacy tool” to try to prevent further decrease in prices,
state-run Mehr news agency reports, citing Mohammad Bagher
Nobakht, vice president for planning & strategic supervision.
• Zanganeh made proposals after president’s request, Nobakht says, without giving details
Saudi Police Say Shoot-Out Caused Fire in Awwamiya Pipeline
By Deema Almashabi
October 19th, 2014 at 11:34 amOct. 18 (Bloomberg) — Fire in oil pipeline near Eastern
Province town of Awwamiya contained, official Saudi Press Agency
reports, citing eastern province police.
• Police patrol was heavily attacked by unidentified gunmen
Yemenis Protest Control of Red Sea Port City by Houthi Rebels
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — Thousands of Hodeidah residents
demand today that Shiite Houthi rebels leave the port city,
Abdulkarim al-Ayashi, a resident, says by phone.
Does Saudi oil pipelines go through Yemen?
October 19th, 2014 at 11:38 amThanks Wayne, sense is the market will pay more attention to the offshore Khafji field closure than the other items near term.
re 3 – no, Saudi fields are mostly in the east, mostly piped to terminals on the Persian Gulf, see map:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/gulf/images/map-pipelines-2010.jpg|||Saudi Arabia 2010 Pipeline Map
October 19th, 2014 at 11:46 amthanks – I hope they do. It is a sizeable cut. I've spent my weekend driving myself nuts over the true causes and longevity of this price decline. Saudi vs. Shale seems to be the consensus concern. Who knows. I just worry about a prolonged drop (not a week or month, but a new normal for at $80 oil) – Hope I'm wrong, but sure does scare me.
Here is a Platts Energy Video that seems to think this is different.
http://www.plattstv.com/video/oil-price-dive-raises-new-questions-october-19/3843191203001
I'm going to lose my mind, ha.
October 19th, 2014 at 11:51 amOne more interesting article this weekend:
Two rival Libyan governments claim to control oil policy
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/libya-oil-idUKL6N0SC23320141017
October 19th, 2014 at 11:53 amTime for another good reason for taking the time and money to become a permanent member of this site. Seriously it is worth every dollar you spend.
With the market collapsing the last few weeks, without the knowledge gained from Z's hard work, I would have panicked and kicked out all the stocks that I owned. Why didn't I? When you know what the true intrinsic value of a stock is worth, it eliminates worrying (well almost) the short term gyrations of the market. In addition, those stocks that are thought to be over leveraged, we received valuable reports on their total exposure. Where else can you get quality research when you need it!!!!!
October 19th, 2014 at 12:25 pmWayne; I appreciate your efforts; I dont envy your job right now.
October 19th, 2014 at 1:15 pmDoes anyone think that the large E&P companies that missed out on the shale boom (eg. XOM) use this downturn as an opportunity to pick up some names that have fallen so much in the last month? That is my concern.
October 19th, 2014 at 4:34 pmre 9 – will address in Monday post.
October 19th, 2014 at 4:41 pmre – 8: Ha, thanks. Definitely not fun times right now. Thats the problem with the market – it won't tell you if you're right, just when. Unfortunately, its the when part that investors care about.
re 9 – Always felt like XOM never liked the shale plays. Logistical nightmare for a big company like them plus hard for small wells to be together to chase capital. At the same time, sure hope they buy some of the names I own, ha
October 19th, 2014 at 5:38 pmBakken Charts
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=CLR,KOG,TPLM,EOX,OAS,NOG
Permian
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=PXD,FANG,CPE,RSPP,LPI,AREX
EFS
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=EOG,PVA,ROSE,MTDR,CRZO,SN
October 19th, 2014 at 6:52 pmWattenburg
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=NBL,BCEI,SYRG,BBG,PDCE
Nat Gas
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=AR,CHK,COG,ECA,EQT,MRD,PVA,QEP,REXX,RICE,RRC,SWN,UPL,WPX,
October 19th, 2014 at 6:53 pmEnergy ETFs
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=XLE,XOP,OIH,KOL,FCG,TAN,UNG,USO,
October 19th, 2014 at 7:01 pmThanks Wayne for sharing your thinking and news flow.
Re 11/9 – XTO
October 19th, 2014 at 7:47 pmAnyone have any perspective on IT related careers in the E&P space? I'm looking at a potential career change and for opportunities where profit sharing / equity are available.
October 19th, 2014 at 8:34 pm