23
Nov
Wrap – Week Ended 11/22/13
Comments on the past week's news and actions will be included in the Week That Was Section of the Monday post.
ZLT Stats - Last week we completed the post quarter update of the expanded ZLT stats. Please see the WIOWIO & ZLT Stats page for our holdings in graphical format.
Holdings Watch: We added to a couple of ZLT positions last week. We also sold one long held Trading position in PVA, up 140%. Please see the Blotter for the update.
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Nice twitpic from EIA – South East graph of coal declining for electricity consumption … coal's lost, natural gas's gain
https://twitter.com/EIAgov/status/403880430996185088/photo/1
November 23rd, 2013 at 10:39 amThe Blotter is updated
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/zeb-zlt-blotter/
It does not include the ZLT C and ZLT G portfolio trades. Those can be seen on ZEB Positions page here:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/
November 23rd, 2013 at 10:57 amZ: Do you have any gut feel for XCO. I am looking at the bonds 7.50% 9/15/18 below par. They are rated B3/CCC+. With the CEO being out, do you think the companies assets are better than the bond ratings? Will they be able to pay off in 5 years (always the tough question). Cusip 269279ad7 for any other bondmeisters out there.
November 23rd, 2013 at 12:00 pmre 4 – Thanks, will have some thoughts for you on Monday.
November 23rd, 2013 at 12:04 pmI had a brief fling on the long side with XCO this fall. Finally sold it after hearing on conf. calls how their JVs were all about getting PDPs on he books (a year or so after the pvt equity or JV partner skimmed the flush production). I got the feeling the co. needed the PDPs to support their existing debt. Meanwhile the co. had an obligation to buyout the JV partners after a yr. or 2 when production was lower. As I remember, co. was cagey about how the repurchase price was figured. Didn't sound good to me so I bailed; it wouldn't suprise me if the co. was in a big financial tangle. However I won't know because I took it off my market minder and threw the file away. fwiw.
November 23rd, 2013 at 4:20 pmre 5 – we sold in April of this year after having tried it on for what for the ZLT was a very short move into the name in July 2012. Like the leverage to natural and it got the expected move off the lows due to its financial leverage and the bottoming of gas in Spring 2012 as well but the story goes against my normal grain of KISS. Almost the opposite of KISS in fact except maybe they keep the last letter there. Will do a re-work up there but lots of moving pieces combined with the over leverage and then an inability to really pull the trigger on long threatened oilier deals had me losing patience. Our other gassy getting oily and over-levered story was PVA and we've still got almost all of that one.
November 23rd, 2013 at 4:27 pmIranian Nuclear Deal Reached
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/23/world/meast/iran-nuclear-talks-geneva/
November 23rd, 2013 at 9:18 pmDetails not yet available, looks like a 6 month deal to remove some sanctions in exchange for some concessions. If the P5 +1 get their way, oil volumes will not be part of the initial lift.
November 23rd, 2013 at 9:24 pmPresident Obama to speak on Iran at 10:15 pm EST
November 23rd, 2013 at 9:33 pmInterim deal:
– halts progress on nuclear program – no use of the newer centrifuges, no additional centrifuges, limited production of centrifuges, some stock pile destruction.
– provides for "intrusive" inspections
– telling Congress now is not the time for new sanctions
Israeli cabinet to meet in 4 hours
November 23rd, 2013 at 10:41 pmHAL Pullback to CLVN support. Looking for a resumption of the trend
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124083135
November 24th, 2013 at 11:33 amOXY Continues trend with strong breakout
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124083429
APA Similar breakout as above but with more supply to deal with..
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124083528
November 24th, 2013 at 11:37 amRE HAL setup…failed to mention the current swing setup in HAL has a 90% win rate back above the 10 Day MA over the past two years.
November 24th, 2013 at 11:39 amCOP another bigger cap looking to breakout
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124083949
November 24th, 2013 at 11:40 amHFC Breakout level at 47.25
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124084415
November 24th, 2013 at 11:44 amThanks, zorg-what do you make of the big caps breaking out-seems unusual to me unless crude looks to break out as well.
November 24th, 2013 at 12:50 pmIsrael reaction to the deal: Historic Mistake
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/24/21591860-historic-mistake-israelis-republicans-condemn-iran-nuclear-deal?lite
November 24th, 2013 at 3:30 pmre# 16 Seems to be happening in general in more than just the energy.sector. Note the relative strength rotation with the SPX now over the Nasdaq Composite. The smaller guys were in charge since April. All three of the big caps I posted here are in the SP100. So bigger is in….
CVX broke out at 122
XOM broke out at 93.38
APC lagging
November 24th, 2013 at 5:00 pmOil off modestly earning evening:
http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/futures/CLF4
Would not be surprised to see a highly volatile session tomorrow.
November 24th, 2013 at 6:12 pm#15…HFC one of my income positions…
November 24th, 2013 at 10:36 pm~~Oil Slump Seen as ‘Knee-Jerk’ Reaction to Iran Deal http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-24/u-s-says-iran-oil-exports-can-t-increase-under-nuclear-accord.html Selling oul on Iran? not so fast
November 25th, 2013 at 8:24 amPXD says severe winter weather in TX impacts operations…really? that's hard for me to believe….
December 2nd, 2013 at 7:27 am