03
Nov
Wrap – Week Ended 11/1/13
Second week of choppy trading after the ZLT and the group hit all time highs two weeks ago. Comments on last week's slew of 3Q13 earnings reports and other items will be included as usual in The Week That Was section of the Monday post. We're slowly adding positions on an opportunistic basis created by the exit of some hot money profit taking. We'll be adding a new portfolio this week as well, same type of model as the ZLT C (low churn, fully invested, stock only) but since people often ask, "what are you doing with new money now?" this will give them a chance to see.
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Thanks and Have A Great Weekend.
The Blotter is updated
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/zeb-zlt-blotter/
November 3rd, 2013 at 8:53 amZ – I’m trying to put this current energy market in perspective. Can you think of anytime in your career where the potential for returns in some E&P segments has been this good? Also, I have noticed that you have mentioned your plan to buy companies with the intent to hold them for 2-3 years. Are you thinking that the cumulative development of these resource plays causes oil prices to breakdown at that point? It seems like several companies have the same model – acquire land, de-risk, and sell the company. It would seem at some point the majority of the land in these plays is acquired and de-risked. You think 10 years from now the potential to find companies like PVA or GST will exist? Thanks
November 3rd, 2013 at 1:33 pmSA article out highlighting the bearish arguments for lower WTI prices over the next year and going forward:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1799972-lower-wti-oil-price-ahead?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0
November 3rd, 2013 at 2:18 pmRe 2 – thanks for the questions, will address in the Monday post.
November 3rd, 2013 at 2:19 pmS&P 500… SPY
Market doing a pretty good job of working off overbought levels on the daily and weekly time frames with rotation into more defensive sectors. Volume pivot at 176. Exptect upside bias above that level and downside below with 173.56 CLVN as key level for current range. Expecting bulls to defend above that level. If I'm wrong and 173.56 fails to hold there is a low volume area that works to 171.22.
Daily
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/03/stock_master390_131103134722
Weekly
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/03/stock_master_weekly_131103140209
November 3rd, 2013 at 5:16 pmE&P Stocks XOP ETF
Daily Oversold bounce off CLVN support and trendline at 68 after high volume selling. A break of 68 works to key suppport at 66.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/03/stock_master390_131103142709
Weekly 66 is the previous breakout level and key support.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/03/stock_master_weekly_131103143202
November 3rd, 2013 at 5:35 pmNatural Gas Stocks
FCG
Daily . Extended/stalled at major resistance after breakout from volume base.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/03/stock_master390_131103152751
Weekly Extended at resistance at 20.64.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/03/stock_master_weekly_131103152512
Weekly Aggregate demand volume still in up trend. Price extended at resistance.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/GAS113_zps2133dc76.png
November 3rd, 2013 at 6:29 pm