14
Sep
Wrap – Week Ended 09/13/13
Another strong week. As in the preceding week, a number of ZLT names include several in the Top 10 moved to 52 week or all time highs. Valuations on forward EBITDA remain largely in check and there has been a broadening of the move in the portfolio with some of the names that are moving up now in our "less easy to own" set of E&Ps where we've been patiently waiting for a slowly improving company level fundamental picture to be recognized by the Steet (guys like PVA). The strong stock perofrmance led all the ZLT portfolios (A,B,C and the greater ZLT) to all time new highs. We are generally pretty turnover guys but we have not done a trade in the ZLT now in four weeks (no, we haven't lost your email address) which is infrequent even for us (the trading blotter remains updated here and the ZLT Pie Exposure graphs are updated here). While others are yelling Buy, Buy, Buy, we've been for quite some time now, nearly fully invested. That time of inactivity is rapidly approaching an end as our plan to take profits (we begain to talk about this late last Spring) in Trading positions, but not in the Cores upon which they are added, has arrived due to the group move higher. Look for some Trading Position only sales in many of our favorite names next week.
If you missed our little wake up time piece on TPLM for Seeking Alpha please check it out here since the SA editors liked it so much they sent it out thrice!
We also did a post deal piece for them here on OAS.
In the coming week look for the detailed Catalyst List update and an update of the WIOWIO (Why I Own, What I Own) among other items.
It's Soccerthirty much of today and tomorrow but I'll be checking in from time to time. Have a great weekend.
Interested to learn more about the site? Check out How To Zeb, How To Subscribe, or contact us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com
http://www.anteroresources.com/operations/drilling-process/horizontal-drilling
Good explanation of horizontal drilling and fracking.
September 14th, 2013 at 2:33 pmre 1 – thanks
Hurricane Ingrid forms in southern Gulf, headed to Mexico, probably a little export disruption but no impact on Gulf Coast infrastructure, unlikely to impact drilling either.
September 14th, 2013 at 4:09 pmZ,
You don't publish day rates on VLCC's . Is that because they do not exits, or there is not standard size?
September 14th, 2013 at 5:22 pmZ,
Does HK have Aubrey disease, and cannot turn down a land deal?
He certainly does not seem intereseted in shareholder value, and does not seem to understand the rules of the game,,,,,in spite of his past track record in the Haynesville. I also question the ability of his technical team to come up the learning curve in all theses different plays, where so many varaibles are different? Know you have been a champion, but his performance is lagging.
September 14th, 2013 at 5:28 pm#3 crysball try capitallink.com good site for info on marine transport.
September 14th, 2013 at 6:51 pmre 4 – will address in Monday post.
September 14th, 2013 at 7:12 pmTest, test, test
September 14th, 2013 at 7:25 pmVersion upgrade complete.
September 14th, 2013 at 7:26 pmZLT Demand Volume Charts
Daily…. Cumulative volume at point where reversals can occur. McClellan Volume shows that money is still currently flowing into the group.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT913_zps16549944.png
Weekly…5 month price uptrend intact and attempting to break higher. Waiting to see if buyers are higher here..
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT913Wkly_zps9d875393.png
September 15th, 2013 at 7:58 amNat Gas Stocks Demand Volume Charts
Daily…Demand volume supporting higher prices on the breakout.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/gas93_zps11fe3ded.png
Weekly….5 month uptrend intact with demand volume supporting higher prices
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/nagas913wkly_zps48ec2dc0.png
September 15th, 2013 at 8:03 amRefinersDemand Volume Charts
Daily Testing bottom of recent range. Demand volume negative.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Refiners913_zps6057dc73.png
Weekly… Testing important support/previous breakout point. Demand volume downtrend continues.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/refiners913wkly2_zps39183f4e.png
September 15th, 2013 at 8:10 amCoal Producers Demand Volume Charts
Daily…..Demand volume turning rolling over after the bounce last week.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Coal913_zpsd5efbb8b.png
Weekly…Demand volume trying to bottom out..
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Coal913wkly_zpsfb62b53e.png
September 15th, 2013 at 8:17 amSolar Stocks Demand Volume
Daily….Short term overbought below imprortant resistance. Demand volume positive.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/solar913_zpsefe58813.png
Weekly…Longer term demand volume uptrend intact with price below important resistance level.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/solar913wkly_zps5b707352.png
September 15th, 2013 at 8:25 amSP500 Demand Volume
Daily Demand volume uptrend intact.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/SP913_zps8888bc4a.png
Weekly…Demand volume uptrend intact
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/SP913wkly_zps5f079a1b.png
September 15th, 2013 at 8:30 amCLR pulling back to breakout level 99.75
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/15/stock_master390_130915070813.png
REXX Defined support at 20
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/15/stock_master390_130915072438
NFX Weekly Chart. Big volume last week on the rejection of long term acceptance at 24.16 as too low.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/15/stock_master_weekly_130915075422
September 15th, 2013 at 9:56 amChina to invest over $13B in energy exploration this year (from Alpha)
China intends to invest 80B yuan ($13.07B) in oil and gas exploration in 2013 – up from 67.3B yuan in 2011 – as part of a strategy to increase supplies and lower its dependence on imports.
China discovered over 5B of petroleum reserves and 2.6T cubic meters of natural gas from 2008-2011.
Last year, China bought 42.5B cubic meters (bcm) of gas from abroad, an increase of over 30% from 2011 and almost 10-fold from 2007.
September 15th, 2013 at 10:53 amZ, in your Monday post could you share your thoughts on the impact of the Colorado flooding on the Wattenberg players–especially BCEI and PDCE? Thanks.
September 15th, 2013 at 10:57 amre 17 – yep, will do.
September 15th, 2013 at 12:08 pmWSJ: Summers Withdraws Name for Fed Job; Summers Called Obama This Morning
September 15th, 2013 at 3:48 pmre 19 – should be an interesting night of watching the futures.
September 15th, 2013 at 4:09 pmMHR piece by someone you all know, one D Edwards
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1694582-magnum-hunters-hidden-billion-dollar-assets
September 15th, 2013 at 4:24 pmS&P futs up 15
September 15th, 2013 at 5:11 pmZorg, thanks for all the levels.
September 15th, 2013 at 5:53 pm#23…You are welcome….
September 15th, 2013 at 6:29 pm#22 Russell up nearly 2%
September 15th, 2013 at 6:29 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
September 15th, 2013 at 6:36 pmRepsol looking to make big U.S. acquisition: WSJ • 7:38 PM (from Alpha)
Repsol (REPYY.PK) is looking to spend $5-10B on a North American E&P company as the Spanish oil major seeks to gain a foothold in "stable-market" economies after the Argentina debacle imperiled the company's investment-grade rating, WSJ says.
Companies mentioned in the article as possible targets based on their size and perceived willingness to pursue a deal include Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) — those names may get a lift from the article come Monday.
September 15th, 2013 at 6:43 pmarticle on TPLM
http://smallbusiness.yahoo.com/advisor/why-street-bullish-junior-oil-producer-015019171.html
September 15th, 2013 at 11:22 pm