Wrap – Week Ended 09/13/13

Another strong week. As in the preceding week, a number of ZLT names include several in the Top 10 moved to 52 week or all time highs. Valuations on forward EBITDA remain largely in check and there has been a broadening of the move in the portfolio with some of the names that are moving up now in our "less easy to own" set of E&Ps where we've been patiently waiting for a slowly improving company level fundamental picture to be recognized by the Steet (guys like PVA). The strong stock perofrmance led all the ZLT portfolios (A,B,C and the greater ZLT) to all time new highs. We are generally pretty turnover guys but we have not done a trade in the ZLT now in four weeks (no, we haven't lost your email address) which is infrequent even for us (the trading blotter remains updated here and the ZLT Pie Exposure graphs are updated here).  While others are yelling Buy, Buy, Buy, we've been for quite some time now, nearly fully invested.  That time of inactivity is rapidly approaching an end as our plan to take profits (we begain to talk about this late last Spring) in Trading positions, but not in the Cores upon which they are added, has arrived due to the group move higher.  Look for some Trading Position only sales in many of our favorite names next week. 

If you missed our little wake up time piece on TPLM for Seeking Alpha please check it out here since the SA editors liked it so much they sent it out thrice!

We also did a post deal piece for them here on OAS.

In the coming week look for the detailed Catalyst List update and an update of the WIOWIO (Why I Own, What I Own) among other items. 

It's Soccerthirty much of today and tomorrow but I'll be checking in from time to time. Have a great weekend. 

Interested to learn more about the site? Check out How To Zeb, How To Subscribe,  or contact us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com

wrap 091313

28 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 09/13/13”

  1. 1
    thumper Says:



    Good explanation of horizontal drilling and fracking.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – thanks

    Hurricane Ingrid forms in southern Gulf, headed to Mexico, probably a little export disruption but no impact on Gulf Coast infrastructure, unlikely to impact drilling either. 

  3. 3
    crysball Says:


    You  don't publish day rates  on  VLCC's .  Is  that  because  they  do  not exits,  or  there  is  not  standard  size?


  4. 4
    crysball Says:


    Does   HK  have  Aubrey  disease,   and cannot turn  down  a land  deal?

    He  certainly  does  not  seem  intereseted  in shareholder  value,  and  does  not  seem  to  understand  the  rules  of the   game,,,,,in spite  of  his  past   track  record  in the  Haynesville.   I  also  question  the ability  of  his  technical  team  to   come  up the learning  curve  in  all  theses  different  plays,   where  so  many  varaibles  are different?   Know  you  have  been  a champion, but   his  performance  is   lagging.


  5. 5
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    #3   crysball   try capitallink.com good site for info on marine transport.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 4 – will address in Monday post. 

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Test, test, test 

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Version upgrade complete. 

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    ZLT Demand Volume Charts

    Daily….  Cumulative volume at point where reversals can occur. McClellan Volume shows that money is still currently flowing into the group.


    Weekly…5 month price uptrend intact and attempting to break higher. Waiting to see if buyers are higher here..


  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Stocks Demand Volume Charts

    Daily…Demand volume supporting higher prices on the breakout.


    Weekly….5 month uptrend intact with demand volume supporting higher prices


  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    RefinersDemand Volume Charts

    Daily Testing bottom of recent range. Demand volume negative.


    Weekly…  Testing important support/previous breakout point. Demand volume downtrend continues.



  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    Coal Producers Demand Volume Charts

    Daily…..Demand volume turning rolling over after the bounce last week.


    Weekly…Demand volume trying to bottom out..


  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    Solar Stocks Demand Volume

    Daily….Short term overbought below imprortant resistance. Demand volume positive.


    Weekly…Longer term demand volume uptrend intact with price below important resistance level.


  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    SP500 Demand Volume

    Daily  Demand volume uptrend intact.


    Weekly…Demand volume uptrend intact


  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:


    CLR pulling back to breakout level 99.75


    REXX  Defined support at 20


    NFX  Weekly Chart. Big volume last week on the rejection  of long term acceptance at 24.16 as too low.


  16. 16
    nrgyman Says:

    China to invest over $13B in energy exploration this year  (from Alpha)

    China intends to invest 80B yuan ($13.07B) in oil and gas exploration in 2013 – up from 67.3B yuan in 2011 – as part of a strategy to increase supplies and lower its dependence on imports.

    China discovered over 5B of petroleum reserves and 2.6T cubic meters of natural gas from 2008-2011.

    Last year, China bought 42.5B cubic meters (bcm) of gas from abroad, an increase of over 30% from 2011 and almost 10-fold from 2007.

  17. 17
    nrgyman Says:

    Z, in your Monday post could you share your thoughts on the impact of the Colorado flooding on the Wattenberg players–especially BCEI and PDCE?  Thanks.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    re 17 – yep, will do. 

  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    WSJ: Summers Withdraws Name for Fed Job; Summers Called Obama This Morning

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    re 19 – should be an interesting night of watching the futures. 

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    MHR piece by someone you all know, one D Edwards


  22. 22
    zman Says:

    S&P futs up 15 

  23. 23
    Bill Potter Says:

    Zorg, thanks for all the levels.  

  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    #23…You are welcome….

  25. 25
    Zorgnak Says:

    #22  Russell up nearly 2%

  26. 26
    zman Says:


  27. 27
    nrgyman Says:

    Repsol looking to make big U.S. acquisition: WSJ • 7:38 PM (from Alpha)

    Repsol (REPYY.PK) is looking to spend $5-10B on a North American E&P company as the Spanish oil major seeks to gain a foothold in "stable-market" economies after the Argentina debacle imperiled the company's investment-grade rating, WSJ says.

    Companies mentioned in the article as possible targets based on their size and perceived willingness to pursue a deal include Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) — those names may get a lift from the article come Monday.

  28. 28
    Bill Potter Says:

    article on TPLM



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