07
Sep
Wrap – Week Ended 9/06/13
Strong week. A number of our top 10 positions are at or near either all time highs or 52 week highs but valuations are not currentlly stretched on several metrics we employ. As a consequence, we are again at all time highs for the aggregated ZLT and for the ZLT A and C accounts. We remain essentially fully invested and will be doing some rebalancing soon (as mentioned often since late Spring). The trading blotter is up to date and the weightings on the ZEB Positions tab have been updated. As you can see, some of the stronger names are in need of modest pruning.
Please see yesterday's (Friday) post for a run down of the key points of the OAS big buy in the Bakken and our preliminary estimates for 2013. Strong stuff and the name is too cheap to stay here long with volumes ramping into year end on a big completed well count jump in 3Q before layering in the acquisition in 4Q. The decision to grow the rig count through YE14 contrasted with their move into free cash flow land in the Bakken will make them a somewhat rare name in the group sporting that kind of growth in their weight class.
Please see our recent BCEI thoughts in the wake of the 2Q13 call here that are now starting to come to fruition as the name presses towards its all time highs. Nutshell is a strong story continues to get better and it's rested long enough in the upper $30s.
Please see our comments on TPLM here in the wake of their mid August acquisition and in advance of next week's earnings report
Soccer all day Saturday but we will be about the office on Sunday. Have a great weekend.
Interested to learn more about the site? Check out How To Zeb or contact us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com
SPY/SP500
Weekly Price and demand volume trend remains in uptrend.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/SPWeekly96_zpsc7c2bd6d.png
Daily Demand volume turning positive.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/SP96_zpsc105cfaa.png
Short Term Levels Short term range from 162.70 CLVN to 166.71 CLVN. Far resistance at 167.74, far support at 160.40. Currently testing near resistance with demand volume improving.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080610
September 8th, 2013 at 8:17 amE&P Stocks
Weekly Price and demand volume remain in uptrend. Demand volume lagging price.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLTWkly96_zps860a07e3.png
Daily Demand volume resumes uptrend.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT96_zpse1ed8dd0.png
September 8th, 2013 at 8:24 amNat Gas Stocks
Weekly Strong demand volume uptrend. Price consolidating.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/GAsWkly96_zpsc4635c0a.png
Daily Demand volume uptrend looks ready to improve again with price tapping resistance.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Gas96_zps4eead33c.png
September 8th, 2013 at 8:30 amSolar Stocks
Weekly Strong demand volume. Price below significant breakout level.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Solarweekly96_zps1cf90edb.png
Daily Strong demand volume. Price mid range
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/solar96_zps6d114ee1.png
September 8th, 2013 at 8:38 amRefiners
Weekly Demand volume positive. Price coiling at previous breakout level
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/RefinerWkly96_zpsa0064dd3.png
Daily Consolidation above support.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Refiners96_zpsc7b79e1c.png
September 8th, 2013 at 8:46 amCoal Producers
Weekly Trying to put in a bottom with demand volume turning up.
http://s1223.photobucket.com/user/zorgnak/media/CoalWkly96_zpsb4046245.png.html
Daily
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Coal96_zps74ff467d.png
September 8th, 2013 at 8:57 amZorg, on that last one, WLT looks really good, basing structure on the daily, triggered a new point and figure (P&F) buy signal on 9/5, the technical structure is setting up nicely for a move higher from here
September 8th, 2013 at 10:22 am#7 Agreed..had this one as a base breakout/bounce trade last week. 42% short. High relative volume on Friday again. Day traders have this one in their sights. I can see room to run with volume gap to 16.70/first supply. Beyond that it looks to be a grinder..to my eye
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080841
September 8th, 2013 at 10:44 amZorg.
are you still not convinced that solar is ready to move back up or is it wait and see situation where the scenario for a move higher is there, but the conviction just hasn't reached enough momentum to warrant an immediate investment. thanks.
September 8th, 2013 at 10:56 amMPO…Got some love on Friday..watch for a break above 4.97. Room to move back to 5.33 a 7% move. After than lot's of supply.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080914
September 8th, 2013 at 11:15 amre: 7
BTU also attempting to build structure pointing to higher trading range. After making a low in late June, the higher lows and highs suggest there's some accumulation in the stock and better demand (which probably isn't hard to achieve given the complete destruction in stock price).
September 8th, 2013 at 11:51 amZorg, MPO, not familiar with this one, do you know, is there anything fundamentally worthwhile about this stock?, I see the basing hook on good volume Friday, on the daily, agree, promising setup points to a nearterm run to resistance at $5.30 ish, nothing too much going on the longer term P&F yet… but from where it's trading now, if it can get to $5.50 this would reverse the P&F chart back into O's on the aging sell signal; if this is a good stock, this can many times be a good place to take a bite
September 8th, 2013 at 12:23 pmIntended to say " revert back into X's on the agings sell signal" Re: #12
September 8th, 2013 at 12:25 pmNFX, watching this one closely, so fustrating, for both people already in it and wanting to buy it (me)… has not been invited to the E&P party of late, wanted to say a few words on this one, the weekly has a classic "fry pan" bottoming structure developing , but this can take time to confrim and to play out, cognizant of the higher weekly low put in three weeks ago at $22.71. The daily chart, has an interesting wedge developing, (don't have the public charts up so I can't show you) but this can be like watching paint dry each day as the stock does nothing when others are up a $1, but …it does not seem to want to go down much either, speaking to myself, a good exercise in patience, would not be a seller here. Looking to buy, a good test is going to be when the sector eventually pulls back on big Dow/S&P red days, evaluate the price action then
September 8th, 2013 at 12:37 pm#9 The group looks poised to continue to move up but the individual stocks are all over the place with some really extended and others trading very heavy. The ETF TAN has already broken out to 52 week highs. I'm only taking individual stocks as short term trades with no thought of investment at the moment. I'll leave the investment part of it to others on the board that know something about the individual companies or the solar thesis.
SPWR A volume break of 23.60 looks interesting. I'm long the stock from last week. I'm out of FSLR…something not right there…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081032
September 8th, 2013 at 12:41 pm#12 Re MPO Z covered it favolably when it IPO'd but they rapidly made some damaging company moves/had a lawsuit and the stock sold off. So, as memory serves it had potential that remains unfullfilled.
September 8th, 2013 at 12:43 pmre: 12
MPO is not regulary discussed on the board, but i know insiders bought recently on the drop and from what little i know they do have workable property that can catapult the stock higher if better execution is achieved. i have a few shares higher than here, but it represents less than 1% of my portfolio.
September 8th, 2013 at 12:47 pmRe: #16, MPO, interesting, lawsuits get settled, might be a good time to take another look, someone seems to now be biting at it now
September 8th, 2013 at 12:50 pmNFX… to my eye this one is stuck at long term acceptance(24)/thick congestion(23-25) with 25 as the upside resistance/breakout point. I was relieved to see that it held support at 22.59 (I'm long) and volume patterns look more or less favorable to ride this uptend line…like you said, it might be like paint drying as it's in dense congestion at the moment. Above 25, supply drops off quickly and the volume gap looks good for easy movement higher, if/when
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081047
September 8th, 2013 at 12:53 pmre: 15
thanks for the input. will continue to monitor. don't have a rush to initiate any positions now, but i find, from a long term perspective that once a sector bursts higher and then comes back to fill the gap, eventually they find a way to continue the rally . so i appreciate that you are monitoring the sector and its now on my radar. i know very little about the individual stocks, but there are few including SPWR that are suggesting that the sector is heating up again.
September 8th, 2013 at 12:53 pmThanks brodway, the daily price action is improving, observing to see if the basing price action continues, reminds me of MHR, look what happened there
September 8th, 2013 at 12:53 pmre: 14 & 19
one thing outside the charts that i have come to realize about NFX and stocks that keep failing to deliver time and time again, is that investors start to shun the stock until the trend reverses or sometimes never come back. NFX in my opinion will be an event driven stock. it has hurt a lot of people for a long time. looking at the 2 year chart, this stock has done nothing but gone down and until the psyche of the community changes, i would not expect much more than sellers on any significant rally.
September 8th, 2013 at 12:56 pmre 22 – I disagree re failing to deliver again and again. Last two quarters were volume beats, not disappoints. Ask me about during the week or read what I've written lately. New dawn there later this year. Before that they had some slight misses or slight beats but they took down guidance heavily after the Malaysia guidance was pulled back in 2012. They were a victim of their own success in Malaysia, hitting a PSC cumulative volume based trigger earlier than they or the analyst crowd expected. The value of the international asset sales continues to drift higher and they will get almost all of those dollars to pay down debt and help fund their four US plays which if you go back and read the 2Q report are doing very well and two of them are expected to double in terms of volumes from the 2Q13 average to the 2013 exit. Current trading is noise and bottoming in my book. If you mean the rally and pullback action from 27 to 24 then sure, whatever, but looking into year end volumes rise and the asset sale approaches and then NFX, an oilier version of the older company, grows faster from a smaller base, achieveing free cash flow land in late 2015 or early 2016.
September 8th, 2013 at 1:05 pmre: 23
thanks for chiming in on the week end Zman. i didn't expect you to agree for many reasons already discussed on the board over several months. when i mentioned " failing to deliver" that also implies a more focused management approach. they have so much but don't do enough with the assets . unfortunately not everyone will invest in potential. many investors have become less complacent and have been reactive with the "what have you done for me lately" approach. i've read the info you wrote up on NFX numerous times and that's why i wrote it will be an "event driven stock". it's one of my larger positions now, so i have the patience to wait. i think you will agree, however, that the majority of traders chasing charts certainly don't have this one on their radar.
September 8th, 2013 at 1:22 pmRe: #24 I agree with you about chasing charts, I'm a technical trader, but unless it's a day trade or short term swing trade, I need to understanding "what's under the hood" , that's what makes this site and its commentators so valuable, the linking of price action with fundametal reason to buy or sell
September 8th, 2013 at 1:33 pmJRCC Short term trade setup
Volume break of long and short term volume base at 2.38 has room to bounce. 23% short…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081132
September 8th, 2013 at 1:35 pmre 24 – I agree. And what you said in that comment is indeed much of what's wrong with the market these days. I don't chase charts. I use the TA to be sure but the chart doesn't generate the idea in the first place. And the "what have you done for me lately" stuff makes me shake my head and laugh at the same time. Silly. Nonsense. Ugh. Please. Whatever. All those words come to mind. The ZLT C, for instance, is up 27% this year, twice it's bench mark. It's seen a whopping 4 trades during 2013. That's my kind of complacency. So I don't care that "no everyone will invest in potential". They'll be the ones that like names like that … later and higher.
September 8th, 2013 at 1:36 pmThanks JB. I didn't mean to interupt the flow today, great stuff from you guys on the TA, will retreat into Sunday football shadows.
Sidebar. Both Intern 1 and Intern 2 got goals during their games yesterday and Intern 2 came close to a yellow card as well. Practice makes perfect, š
September 8th, 2013 at 1:42 pm7,500 hits and counting since Friday morning
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1674572-triangle-petroleum-undervalued-bakken-player
Which I only mention because it's typical of investors to want to learn about sub $10 stocks
Contrast to 2,200 hits since August 14 for our piece on BCEI which is a more straightforward, cheap growth story and that people just don't seem to care about until of course they do and it legs higher again.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1633952-bonanza-creek-horizons-continue-to-expand-and-name-remains-cheap-despite-the-run
September 8th, 2013 at 1:45 pmre: 25
after at least a dozen year of investing/trading i've yet to come across someone as knowledgable as Zman. talking about understanding what's under the hood, ZEnergyBrain (no relationship to ZEnergy LLC…LOL) is the manual car manufacturers provide when you get into a new vehicle. its the road map for energy investing…bar none.
September 8th, 2013 at 1:47 pmAnd Brodway, I do absolutely agree it's not on a lot of radars for the TA types at this time. To my layman's TA eye however, it bottomed with the 1Q13 report and should begin to creep into the next two earnings reports. Once they notch a $1.5 B+ type sale I think the name gets refocused as a 4 play high % oil mix growth domestic play. You can start to break each of the 4 pieces into what a comparable Bakken or Eagle Ford player of that size is trading for and see how that comes out to the total pro form of the debt repayment TEV.
September 8th, 2013 at 1:49 pmre 30 – too kind, I'm going to run, busy week up next. Ecodata a little less so, but we've got Syria votes (on 9/11?) and OPEC monthly notes and the STEO to talk about, TPLM earnings, and the beginning of the Fall conference season. Have a great rest of the weekend. JB – again, so pleased you're back and commenting on the P and F. RMD used to have all these hand drawn P&F charts around hist office and I know he digs your work as much as I do. Thanks.
September 8th, 2013 at 1:52 pmNFX, the stock is basically trading where it was in 2009, to me, one of the best places to consider a good stock for a longer term hold, is when nobody else wants to buy or is indifferent
September 8th, 2013 at 1:58 pmre: 31
its my 3rd largest holding now and i'm buying any time i see it below 23. i think others agree with what you are saying.
Pickens also liked Newfield Exploration NFX +0.04% , an exploration and production company with oil and gas assets in the onshore U.S, the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore locations in Asia. He bought over 210,000 shares of the stock. The stock price is down 34% in the last year as financial performance has been poor, but Wall Street analysts are bullish: the forward P/E, based on expected results for 2014, is only 8 and the five-year PEG ratio is 0.7. Caxton Associates, managed by billionaire Bruce Kovner, also initiated a position in Newfield (find Kovner's favorite stocks).
September 8th, 2013 at 1:59 pmWPX
Weekly…. Consolidation above support after high volume breakout above 17.90.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080753
Daily…. Has been an excellent short term pull back trade since the breakout.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080756
September 8th, 2013 at 2:00 pmTPLM 7.89 Next Resistance
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080707
CLR High volume reversal. If it opens lower I’d look for a test of minor support at 96.89.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080714
KOG High volume break out. Could run more with a intra-day volume break of 10.71. Zip supply , 15% short at last report.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080724
September 8th, 2013 at 2:01 pmOAS Watch reaction at support @ 42.35 for "gift" pullback swing trade in strong uptrend..if/when
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309080731
September 8th, 2013 at 2:02 pmas a side note, i also think T. Boone is going to be on fire this year as well as in 2014 with his investments. his time has come. the man has been a determined and committed figure in energy land. i have a lot of respect for him and follow his moves. the GDP investment has already brought his a small fortune this year.
In fact, there have only been two of Pickens' holdings that have seen bullish insider sentiment in this three-month time frame: Sandridge Energy (SD) and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP). Sitting at the No.'s 10 and 14 spots in his portfolio, both oil and natural gas companies trade at market capitalizations below $3 billion, giving even more steam behind our bullish thesis. Generally speaking, hedge funds' small to mid-cap picks perform better than their larger investments, due to the fact that in-depth research about these stocks is less publicly available.
September 8th, 2013 at 2:02 pmwhile perusing, found this article back from earlier in the year about hedge fund activity. if you bring your attention to the bottom of the article, you wlll see that hedge funds have been terrible predictors of energy equity moves. the 2 stocks they sold off, namely OAS and GPOR have significantly outperformed the market while the 2 stocks they accumulated WPX and UPL have been stagnant…fow now at least š
another reason why i think this site rocks!!!
September 8th, 2013 at 2:07 pmwhile perusing, found this article back from earlier in the year about hedge fund activity. if you bring your attention to the bottom of the article, you wlll see that hedge funds have been terrible predictors of energy equity moves. the 2 stocks they sold off, namely OAS and GPOR have significantly outperformed the market while the 2 stocks they accumulated WPX and UPL have been stagnant…fow now at least š
http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/newfield-exploration-co-nfx-insiders-arent-crazy-about-it-154462/?singlepage=1
another reason why i think this site rocks!!!
September 8th, 2013 at 2:08 pmYep, WPX, on my watch list also, currently on an above the trendline P&F buy signal in O's, long consolidation flag on the daily, anything near $18 even would be a great spot if we get it, being really "picky in picking spots" right now, I hate that the $NYMO is +16, and it feels like were getting close to a few big red days…
Never got our pullback in GST…..)
September 8th, 2013 at 2:10 pmRe: #37, I know, I can't believe I missed that opening opportunity last week when OAS actually traded off on the open to $38, ruined my whole day…)
September 8th, 2013 at 2:15 pmre: 41
that one will require patience but risk/reward is what i'm interested in more than anything and that's not a bad place to park your cash.
September 8th, 2013 at 2:20 pmLonger term head and shoulder formations in the metals/mining sectors/stocks showing up…
SLX
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081617
BHP/RIO
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081620
XME
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081622
September 8th, 2013 at 6:28 pmCommodity ETF head and shoulder breakout is testing neckline now..
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081627
September 8th, 2013 at 6:28 pmBCEI Pretty chart moving into open air
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081635
September 8th, 2013 at 6:36 pmRDC Breakout his week
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/09/08/stock_master390_1309081640
September 8th, 2013 at 6:40 pm46 BCEI #9 on IBD top 109 9.4 BCEI
September 8th, 2013 at 6:51 pmBonanza Creek Energy Inc ENERGY 11-08-2013 BASE/CHART: BCEI is presently working on a 3rd stage (-.25) flat base that is 5wks long, 13% deep and has a $42.61 pivot. There are 3wks down and 2wks up in the base and 4wks above the 10wk line. The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 89. 9.75 so far.
EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 27%. The EPS growth rate and earnings stability ratings are n/a. The ROE is 10% (-.1). Quarterly Sales are strong but quarterly EPS declined last quarter (-.25) 9.4 so far.
GROUP: currently ranked 32
OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 6 quarters. Mgt holds 7% of shares and there is one top fund in BCEI.
OVERALL: 9.4
Thanks much, guys-TA discussion is extremely informative, useful-watching WPX, BCEI (my read-may have a tad resistance at current levels), for adds-OAS for re-entry-completely missed OAS-that could haunt me;
zorg, JB-you guys make for a solid TA tag team.
September 8th, 2013 at 7:19 pm