Wrap – Week Ended 08/23/13

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Comments will be included in the Monday post. 

We did a full Bakken update on Friday, in case you missed it click here.

The Blotter is updated

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25 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 08/23/13”

1. 1
   Zorgnak Says:
   

   E&P Stocks

   Longer Term at an interesting  juncture .There is a year long uptrend in place approaching well defined breakout levels. Demand volume is coiling with higher lows and lower highs. Breakouts on price without breakout of demand volume are suspect and so it will be useful to watch how demand volume shapes up in the next week or so.  The daily charts are showing a pickup in demand volume now after the recent pullback.  Conspicuous relative strength in Basic materials during this latest market pullback. Feeding into the picture, crude oil is at the upper end of it’s multi-year range with well  defined support and resistance nearby.  Record COT speculative levels in crude oil.

   Weekly E&P Stocks …. Big move potential in the direction of demand volume.

   http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLTWkly823_zps0d0819b4.png

   Daily E&P Stocks… Note demand volume has begun to turn up.

   http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT823_zps6a4439b2.png

   August 24th, 2013 at 4:21 pm
2. 2
   Zorgnak Says:
   

   Crude Oil trading sideways at long term defined resistance (108.75).. The Volume composite has a double distribution of volume with the usual relative volume void between the upper (105) and lower (95) acceptance levels. A move below minor support at 102 would likely move quickly lower. The next major acceptance lower is at 95. A break above the 108 resistance level may move just as quickly but with major acceptance lower looks prone to failure without a fundamental supply/demand shift. COT spec interest remains at record highs.

   Crude Oil Weekly 

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/08/24/crude_oil_multi_period_1308240820

   Daily Six point symmetrical triangle is prone to failure after initial break higher. Long term resistance higher at 108.75.

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/08/24/crude_oil_multi_period_1308240832

   August 24th, 2013 at 4:24 pm
3. 3
   Zorgnak Says:
   

   WPX  18.75 Support

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/08/23/stock_master390_1308231617

   OAS At resistance at 40

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/08/23/stock_master390_1308231619

   SWN  Headed back to 40

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/08/23/stock_master390_1308231621

   August 24th, 2013 at 4:24 pm
4. 4
   Zorgnak Says:
   

   NFX Tested support at 22.59. Next resistance at 25

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/08/23/stock_master390_1308231626

    

    

   August 24th, 2013 at 4:34 pm
5. 5
   Zorgnak Says:
   

   Nat Gas Stock Weekly W/ Demand Volume…Grinding higher

   http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/GasWkly823_zps346a6f2a.png

   Daily Chart  Demand Volume positive with slight pullback 

   http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/GAs823_zps34dcdc47.png

    

   August 24th, 2013 at 4:37 pm
6. 6
   gdr Says:
   

   Z—

   That chunk of data on Friday's Bakken update was magnificent!

   So much to learn and keep on the radar. Thanks for the concise and detailed info.

   August 25th, 2013 at 7:26 am
7. 7
   zman Says:
   

   Thanks for the levels Zorg, great stuff, will ask you a couple of question on it in the Monday post. 

   Re 6 – Thanks much and glad you like it. It's a reference piece (something in between a data dump – which I would find useless and full report on each – which we have elsewhere in all of the owned company cases) so if something isn't there please ask questions during the week.   We're working on building the same for the "Wattenbergs" and for the "Gassy Players List".

    

   August 25th, 2013 at 9:44 am
8. 8
   zman Says:
   

   … and then for the "Permians"

   August 25th, 2013 at 9:44 am
9. 9
   tomdavis12 Says:
   

   Z: I had seen the IRR chart you brought to our attention on the BCEI slides. How important are those figures in your basin weightings or your CL/NG mix of holdings?

   August 25th, 2013 at 10:00 am
10. 10
    milepost_43 Says:
    

    New Rules Would Cut Silica Dust Exposure      http://tinyurl.com/mptkt47

    Marc Freedman, executive director of labor law policy at the United States Chamber of Commerce, questioned the need for the rules. For general industry and maritime, the proposed permissible exposure levels will be cut to 50 micrograms a cubic meter of air from 100 micrograms. The construction industry’s exposure levels will be cut 80 percent, to 50 micrograms from 250 in a cubic meter of air.

    Tighter restrictions, he said, would affect the fracking industry. “This could have a big impact on fracking, when that industry has been doing a lot of good things for the economy,” he said.

    August 25th, 2013 at 10:01 am
11. 11
    zman Says:
    

    re 9 – will adress in Monday post. 

    August 25th, 2013 at 10:03 am
12. 12
    brodway Says:
    

    re: 8

    is the Permians a new show like the Kardashians? 🙂

    look forward to the premier.

    hope you guys are enjoying your weekend. the weather in the NorthEast is just sublime

    August 25th, 2013 at 11:47 am
13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:
    

     

    Need some input. Are the symbols correct for the sub groups. Thanks

    Permian = AREX CPE CXO FANG LPI PXD

    Baaken = CLR EOX KOG NOG OAS TPLM WLL 

    August 25th, 2013 at 12:36 pm
14. 14
    zman Says:
    

    re 12 =LOL, yes but the Permians will have more hype and drama

    re 13 – yeah, those are good, there are lots more up there but those are the ones that are either pure play or very vested in the play. There are smaller names in each of course but you have the core names. 

    August 25th, 2013 at 3:44 pm
15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:
    

    Weekly Charts of E&P Stocks, Baaken and Permian sub-groups.

    In the past 100 days or since April swing low E&P as a whole has advanced 7.6% , Bakken + 11.4% and the Permian group + 30.4% …wow.

    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/BakkenPermian_zps73e038b3.png

     

    August 25th, 2013 at 5:15 pm
16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:
    

    Weekly Solar Group Charts.  Note that cummulative demand volume has broken out longer term and is a solid sign that further price breakouts can be expected. Strength was selective last week with strong gains in some names (TSL,CSIQ) and not so much in others (FSLR,SPWR)…

    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/SolarWeekly_zps4a9e11ed.png

    FSLR Weekly  Large volume gap above volume base at 58. 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/08/25/stock_master390_1308251611

    FSLR Daily Chart

    Opened strong on Friday and failed at resistance (40 CLVN). Support at the 35 CLVN. 200 MA at 37.10. Demand volume 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/08/25/stock_master390_1308251619

     

    August 25th, 2013 at 6:27 pm
17. 17
    zman Says:
    

    As of this evening for the contest we have:

    EQU	Mark Wetzler
    KOG	Ram
    GST	D Edwards
    OAS	Justin
    WLL	tomdavis12
    BCEI	thumper
    NOG	brodway
    GDP	Roger
    TPLM	john11
    PWE	elduque
    PDCE	nrgyman
    FXEN	milepost_43
    MLOOF	elihahwc
    EXXI	italyinvestor
    FANG	RB
    SWN	1520sbroad
    SD	Aaron
    LEI	choices
    CHK	mattlee
    RRC	DaveH
    ZAZA	sea bull
    SRYG	macguyver
    CNX	life's-a-gas
    SSN	Popeye
    REXX	crysball
    ROSE	petrodollar
    CWEI	RMD
    PXD	Wayne G
    LINE	mimster90
    EPL	Alhambra
    PVA	Packman
    AXAS	Mosca 47

     

    August 25th, 2013 at 8:15 pm
18. 18
    Bill Potter Says:
    

    Zorg, thanks for the charts and the Bakken and Permian group charts are very usefull.

    August 25th, 2013 at 8:22 pm
19. 19
    Bill Potter Says:
    

    Contest- NFX

    August 25th, 2013 at 8:24 pm
20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:
    

    #18  Re charts…You are most welcome

    August 25th, 2013 at 8:27 pm
21. 21
    nrgyman Says:
    

    APC monetizing some W. African natgas assets ($2.64 billion for only a 10% stake) to raise funds for investment in the US.  "The company will use cash from the sale to boost development at its U.S. onshore projects as well as the Gulf of Mexico", according to the statement.  

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-25/ongc-agrees-to-pay-2-64-billion-for-anadarko-gas-field-stake.html

    August 25th, 2013 at 10:32 pm
22. 22
    nrgyman Says:
    

    RE 21:  More from APC:  "As the operator of Area 1, we are very pleased to have reached this agreement with OVL, which values our pre-transaction interest at more than $9.6 billion. We expect to use the net proceeds from this transaction to further accelerate the short- and intermediate-term oil and liquids opportunities we have in the Wattenberg field, Eagleford Shale, Permian and Powder River basins, as well as the Gulf of Mexico and other evolving plays in our portfolio. Our objective with this allocation of capital will be to further increase our cash-flow growth with attractive wellhead margins, while providing additional value to our shareholders as evidenced by our recent dividend increase and continued portfolio-management activities."

     

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/anadarko-announces-264-billion-all-cash-transaction-for-portion-of-offshore-mozambique-block-2013-08-25

    August 25th, 2013 at 10:40 pm
23. 23
    501xx Says:
    

    Contest  SN

    August 26th, 2013 at 12:35 am
24. 24
    gdr Says:
    

    Z—

    re 17:what are your top two picks, even including ones chosen already?

    August 26th, 2013 at 5:23 am
25. 25
    Dillon Says:
    

    Contest CLR

    August 26th, 2013 at 8:45 am

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