Wrap – Week Ended 08/23/13

Comments will be included in the Monday post. 

We did a full Bakken update on Friday, in case you missed it click here.

The Blotter is updated

wrap 082313

25 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 08/23/13”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    E&P Stocks

    Longer Term at an interesting  juncture .There is a year long uptrend in place approaching well defined breakout levels. Demand volume is coiling with higher lows and lower highs. Breakouts on price without breakout of demand volume are suspect and so it will be useful to watch how demand volume shapes up in the next week or so.  The daily charts are showing a pickup in demand volume now after the recent pullback.  Conspicuous relative strength in Basic materials during this latest market pullback. Feeding into the picture, crude oil is at the upper end of it’s multi-year range with well  defined support and resistance nearby.  Record COT speculative levels in crude oil.

    Weekly E&P Stocks …. Big move potential in the direction of demand volume.


    Daily E&P Stocks… Note demand volume has begun to turn up.


  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil trading sideways at long term defined resistance (108.75).. The Volume composite has a double distribution of volume with the usual relative volume void between the upper (105) and lower (95) acceptance levels. A move below minor support at 102 would likely move quickly lower. The next major acceptance lower is at 95. A break above the 108 resistance level may move just as quickly but with major acceptance lower looks prone to failure without a fundamental supply/demand shift. COT spec interest remains at record highs.

    Crude Oil Weekly 


    Daily Six point symmetrical triangle is prone to failure after initial break higher. Long term resistance higher at 108.75.


  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    WPX  18.75 Support


    OAS At resistance at 40


    SWN  Headed back to 40


  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    NFX Tested support at 22.59. Next resistance at 25




  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Stock Weekly W/ Demand Volume…Grinding higher


    Daily Chart  Demand Volume positive with slight pullback 



  6. 6
    gdr Says:


    That chunk of data on Friday's Bakken update was magnificent!

    So much to learn and keep on the radar. Thanks for the concise and detailed info.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the levels Zorg, great stuff, will ask you a couple of question on it in the Monday post. 

    Re 6 – Thanks much and glad you like it. It's a reference piece (something in between a data dump – which I would find useless and full report on each – which we have elsewhere in all of the owned company cases) so if something isn't there please ask questions during the week.   We're working on building the same for the "Wattenbergs" and for the "Gassy Players List".


  8. 8
    zman Says:

    … and then for the "Permians"

  9. 9
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: I had seen the IRR chart you brought to our attention on the BCEI slides. How important are those figures in your basin weightings or your CL/NG mix of holdings?

  10. 10
    milepost_43 Says:

    New Rules Would Cut Silica Dust Exposure      http://tinyurl.com/mptkt47

    Marc Freedman, executive director of labor law policy at the United States Chamber of Commerce, questioned the need for the rules. For general industry and maritime, the proposed permissible exposure levels will be cut to 50 micrograms a cubic meter of air from 100 micrograms. The construction industry’s exposure levels will be cut 80 percent, to 50 micrograms from 250 in a cubic meter of air.

    Tighter restrictions, he said, would affect the fracking industry. “This could have a big impact on fracking, when that industry has been doing a lot of good things for the economy,” he said.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    re 9 – will adress in Monday post. 

  12. 12
    brodway Says:

    re: 8

    is the Permians a new show like the Kardashians? 🙂

    look forward to the premier.

    hope you guys are enjoying your weekend. the weather in the NorthEast is just sublime

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:


    Need some input. Are the symbols correct for the sub groups. Thanks



  14. 14
    zman Says:

    re 12 =LOL, yes but the Permians will have more hype and drama

    re 13 – yeah, those are good, there are lots more up there but those are the ones that are either pure play or very vested in the play. There are smaller names in each of course but you have the core names. 

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weekly Charts of E&P Stocks, Baaken and Permian sub-groups.

    In the past 100 days or since April swing low E&P as a whole has advanced 7.6% , Bakken + 11.4% and the Permian group + 30.4% …wow.



  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weekly Solar Group Charts.  Note that cummulative demand volume has broken out longer term and is a solid sign that further price breakouts can be expected. Strength was selective last week with strong gains in some names (TSL,CSIQ) and not so much in others (FSLR,SPWR)…


    FSLR Weekly  Large volume gap above volume base at 58. 


    FSLR Daily Chart

    Opened strong on Friday and failed at resistance (40 CLVN). Support at the 35 CLVN. 200 MA at 37.10. Demand volume 



  17. 17
    zman Says:

    As of this evening for the contest we have:

    EQU Mark Wetzler
    KOG Ram
    GST D Edwards
    OAS Justin 
    WLL tomdavis12
    BCEI  thumper
    NOG brodway
    GDP Roger
    TPLM john11
    PWE elduque
    PDCE nrgyman
    FXEN milepost_43
    MLOOF elihahwc
    EXXI italyinvestor
    SWN 1520sbroad
    SD Aaron
    LEI choices
    CHK mattlee
    RRC DaveH
    ZAZA sea bull
    SRYG macguyver
    CNX life's-a-gas
    SSN Popeye
    REXX crysball
    ROSE petrodollar
    PXD Wayne G
    LINE mimster90
    EPL Alhambra
    PVA Packman
    AXAS Mosca 47


  18. 18
    Bill Potter Says:

    Zorg, thanks for the charts and the Bakken and Permian group charts are very usefull.

  19. 19
    Bill Potter Says:

    Contest- NFX

  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    #18  Re charts…You are most welcome

  21. 21
    nrgyman Says:

    APC monetizing some W. African natgas assets ($2.64 billion for only a 10% stake) to raise funds for investment in the US.  "The company will use cash from the sale to boost development at its U.S. onshore projects as well as the Gulf of Mexico", according to the statement.  



  22. 22
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 21:  More from APC:  "As the operator of Area 1, we are very pleased to have reached this agreement with OVL, which values our pre-transaction interest at more than $9.6 billion. We expect to use the net proceeds from this transaction to further accelerate the short- and intermediate-term oil and liquids opportunities we have in the Wattenberg field, Eagleford Shale, Permian and Powder River basins, as well as the Gulf of Mexico and other evolving plays in our portfolio. Our objective with this allocation of capital will be to further increase our cash-flow growth with attractive wellhead margins, while providing additional value to our shareholders as evidenced by our recent dividend increase and continued portfolio-management activities."



  23. 23
    501xx Says:

    Contest  SN

  24. 24
    gdr Says:


    re 17:what are your top two picks, even including ones chosen already?

  25. 25
    Dillon Says:

    Contest CLR

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