17
Aug

T.G.I.F. + Catalyst List Update Part III

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

 



Market Sentiment Watch: Market seems to want slightly bad news these days in hopes of keeping stimulus dreams alive.
In more relevant news or in energy land, natural gas storage turned in a record low injection last week, below expectations, showing that the flatter slope theory of this year's injection line is alive and well. Natural gas trader's didn't budge to the bullish side due to a near term mild forecast but the writing is on the wall with regard to a near term cross over out of record storage territory and coming reversal to average and then deficit storage territory. The longer natural gas stays in sub $3 the quicker the transition will occur. In today's post please find a lot more on the natural gas storage numbers as well as Catalyst List Update Part III. Next week look for the remainder of the Catalyst List to be updated, a full Bakken Players update, the ZLT stats slide show, and a new company review. Continue also to expect some name trimming from within the ZLT.  

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get consumer sentiment at 9:55 am EST (F = 71.8, last read 72.3)
  • We get leading indicators at 10 am EST (F = +0.3%, last read was -0.3%)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Update Part III, LINE
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Holdings Watch:

ZMT (Zman Medium Term portfolio):

  • Yesterday’s Trades: 
    • XCO – Added a starter position for the ZMT of 100 shares of XCO at $7.53. Leveraged, almost all gassy, growth story, with falling costs, just waiting for a rebound in natural gas prices. 

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Yesterday’s Trades:

    • TPLM – Added another trading position at $6.38. Expecting the name to continue to gain acceptance as a real player in the Bakken space, in the wake of the recent financing and strong five five well operated results as well as their cost cutting efforts as they partially vertically integrate via their in house frac spread. Look for them to reiterate prior strong exit rate guidance on their next quarterly call (probably in early September) which will set up another strong year in 2013.  

The Trading Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil rallied $1.27 to close at $95.60 yesterday, a three month high, moving step with the broad markets and a smallish decline in the dollar. This morning crude is trading off slightly.

  • SPR Release Watch: With oil prices moving back up the White House is taking a look at a SPR release. Shocking.  Note that when prices dipped from May to July they didn't bother to refill the last release. 

Natural gas closed off two cents at 2.72 yesterday, in volatile trading after EIA reported another better than expected injection to storage. We continue to make big strides in getting back into the historic trading band (see details below). Little surprises me with regard to daily moves in natural gas and the market's reaction was one of near term thinking about a cooling trend but the cross over into non-record storage territory remains imminent and gas prices near term should start to reflect the coming move of storage transitioning from surplus, to average, to deficit over the next several months. This morning gas is trading flat. 

Natural Gas Storage Review:

ZComments:

  • We are now 363 Bcf above the 5 year average, down from 927 Bcf over it at the end of March
  • This was a record low storage number for this week in history (see chart F).
  • We are now 57 Bcf above the 2009 level (note in chart A1 below its getting hard to see the space between the two years). 2009 represents the upper band of the historical range for storage shown in Chart A below.  We are likely to cross over into non record territory in the next 2 weeks. 
  • Cumulative gas injections for 2012 are running 4.1 Bcfgpd behind the five year average. This means that on average we have packed away nearly 29 Bcf less each week in the first 21 weeks of the injection season than we have in years past. 

Stuff We Care About Today

Catalyst Update Part III

Other Stuff:

MPO - Two Insider Buys, no doubt to send a message - need to see more after several missteps out of the IPO gate. The stock needs some confidence building and non-underwriter based support but for now its restricted time post Miss Lime deal. 

PVA  - Files $250 mm Mixed Shelf. Expecting an offering until closer to year end, if then.  

LINE - Hogshooter comments from Enercom yesterday

  • Corporate Mix - 45% liquids / 55% natural gas
  • Acquisitions have ramped greatly this year

    • 2010 - 13 acquisitions for $1.4 B
    • 2011 - 12 for $1.5 B
    • 2012 YTD - 4 for $2.8 B
  • New Stuff Operations Update

    •  Jonah Field 
      • bought into the play in July for $1.025 B
      • Long lived gas assets (liking they are buying gas reserves while they are cheap as they said they would early in 2011)
      • 650 locations and 1.2 Tcfe of proved reserves so finding costs under a buck. 
      • Production mix of 73% natural gas, 23% NGLs, 4% oil
      • hedged out expected production through 2017
    • Anadarko Salt Creek JV
      • Signed JV in April with APC as operator ($600 mm cost over next 3 to 6 years)
      • CO2 flood in Wyoming
      • Net production of 1,600 bopd expect net production to double by 2016
    • Hugoton Field (Kansas) 
      • Bought in in March for $1.2 B 
      • 730 Bcfe of proved reserves
      • 37% NGLs / 63% natural gas
      • 800 future locations + 500 recompletion opportunities
      • 110 MM/d at acquisition, still doing that 4 months later and haven't really done much with it yet, but it was a BPasset and that means it was likely  underexploited but "well taken care of".
  • Non New Stuff

    •  Granite Wash
      • Acreage HBP'd
      • Planning 20 Hogshooter wells by year end
      • They're modeling Hogshooters as average 1,700 BOEpd IP wells  but IP's have been bigger (should see a well from NFX in the not too distant future)
      • Look for a bunch of Hogshooters on their 3Q call
    • Hedges 
      • 100% hedged on natural gas and oil through 2016/17
      • On about one-third of their oil they have open tops (floors but no ceilings)
    • Distributions
      • Back to growing at 15% per year clip
    • Liquidity:  $1B now ... and see plenty of opportunity to continue to grow it as they grow reserves and they see little competition and lots of properties to acquire. 
  • Nutshell: I no long own the name, know some of you guys do and am mulling re-entry. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments. 

139 Responses to “T.G.I.F. + Catalyst List Update Part III”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    PDCE – Canaccord cuts by $3 to $36, rating stays Buy

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Crude back to $95.50

    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

  3. 3
    RMD Says:

    will talk to MPO this weekend.  Anyone have questions/suggestions?

  4. 4
    elduque Says:

    TED a little wider .36
     
    BDI still slipping -6 to 714
     
    Brent/WTI  narrowing 18.4

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 3 – Here are a few…

    Are underwirter's restricted until October?

    Liquidity – confirming no deal needed through 2013?  What are their oil/NGL/natural gas price assumptions for that claim? Or how much EBITDA are they seeing 2013?

    Is that the case if they go to upper end of 2013 budget?   If the current trend success continues in the Wilcox, do you see flipping the budget to be more weighted to the Miss Lime in 2013.?

    Does Miss Lime CWC include allocated SWD?  I think so but not sure. Sounds like they are pretty set for SWD near term anyway. Eh, disregard question. 

    How many Miss Lime rigs next year, spud to sales time?

    What's LOE on the Miss Lime piece?  What's a good 1Q13 blended LOE rate?

    What does Eagle add to G&A per quarter. 

    In LA – when do we get Wilcox and Miocene horizontal results, wasn't exactly clear on the call  This is the point to chastise them on a disjointed second speaker's comments that required a flow chart to follow. Looks like we can expect 2 Wilcox horizontals with 3Q PR? Are those 3D covered?

  6. 6
    elduque Says:

    Thanks Z for the catalyst updates- worth their weight in Dollars.
     

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 6 – You're welcome and good morning. 

    Should be a boring one of pinning action after leading indicators today. 

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest  8/17  8:50 AM ES 1412 Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…Levels didn’t change much since I left for vacation but the context shifted more towards the bulls.   Demand volume is now confirming the new highs, though volume remains very low overall. Breadth supportive. Shift in the stock/long bond ratio continues. Currencies and sector strength are positive for equities. Market at minor resistance 1412-16. Congestion above to 1423. Poor high. Little market structure in either direction.
    Thoughts… Market is seeking  value above the intermediate range. Watching for continued volume confirmation and or reversal. Room to run above minor resistance (1412-16) and congestion (1324)  Near support at 1404. There is only minor volume structure for support or resistance in either direction.   Bias remains bullish above 1397.50  Expecting pull backs to get bought this month. Expecting test of recent highs at least one more time.
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
    1424       CHVN, Congestion
    1412-16 CLVN, Minor Resistance
    1404.25  Minor CLVN..Support
    1397.50  Short term volume pivot, CHVN
    1392.50  Minor CLVN, Support
    1383       Minor Support
    1373       Minor Support
    1360-92   Low volume zone.  Quick moves in either direction likely.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/ES_Composite.png

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Would think MPO would get a little bounce today off the insider wallet based enthusiasm. 

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the levels Zorg, check out the RRC now. 

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZMT – MMR

    MMR – Added (10) September $17 MMR calls for $0.32 with the stock at $13.70. Expecting a move higher in the name as we approach month end and the Davy Jones 1 flow test results.  May or may not stick around for the actual results in the options. Small trade, high risk. 

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    #10…wow..there's one wabbit that got-a-way from me…nice and congrats

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    re 12 – apologies, wasn't bragging, was looking for thoughts on if you think this one has legs from here. My position is still a starter one there. 

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    Post Enercom top ideas from RBC: APC, CXO, DNR, EOG, GPOR, NOG, PXD, PXD

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GPOR is popping up on a lot of "Things We Like" lists… forgive me for asking, can't recall, did you do anything with the name?

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Consumer sentiment came in at 73.6 vs 71.8 expected

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    re 15 – thanks and no I did not other than a Catalyst List inclusion. 

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Leading indicators came in at +0.4%  vs +0.3% expected

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Relistening to the MMR call from earlier this week as one broker is indicating Jim Bob said they have already seen 500' of gross pay at Blackbeard West #2 and I didn't here  that. This is the shallower one, "only" going down about  26,000' TVD to tap shallower pays just below the salt weld seen in the Blackbeard West #1 …. theory being the heat and pressure regime are less severe and they can exploit via more conventional topsides. 

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Volumes in group look very light

    TPLM wheedling higher. 

  21. 21
    Zorgnak Says:

    #13 alrighty…RRC ..breakout above 69 on decent volume looking to consolidate with demand volume positive on the weekly and monthly time frames. Looks stretched on the shorter time frames so I'd expect sideways here with chance of a dip on market/sector weakness to 66.83. 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_2.png

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    re 21 – hey, thanks much, hope vacation is going well.  

  23. 23
    Zorgnak Says:

    #20…15 of 85 with higher than average for time of day…31 of 85 green…

  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    #22 I'm back…sort of..mind gone as usual

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    MMR Notes

    "Blackbeard West #2 we got in below the so called Cuploa and we have been fighting a lot of gas in that well"

    Lineham Creek at 21,500', just about to cross the salt welt (30,000 acre structure)

    So I listened closely to Jim Bob's gravelly voice and did not pick up on 500 feet of pay at BBW2 but could have been breakout. Expecting them to have comments on both the Davy Jones test and BBW2 pay and something to say at Lineham Creek as they are now getting into section …. should be by month end. 

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    re 24 – good day to be absent, pinning action, no meaningful price discovery. 

  27. 27
    Zorgnak Says:

    Chinese energy
    http://www.businessinsider.com/china-energy-use-2012-8

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Housekeeping Watch

    Thanks for the tip of the hat to whoever that was over on Value Forum. I did note the way less user friendly comment so if you have suggestions on how to make this site way more user friendly I'm all ears. 

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    re 27 – thanks for that. Exhibit 2 is amazing. Exhibit 5 is part of what makes me bullish long term. China on a per capita basis is where the U.S. was just after 1900. 

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    OAS Chief Account Officer punts 25K at $31, no big deal in my book given he still holds 435,700 shares. 

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    On a call, back in a bit. 

  32. 32
    Zorgnak Says:

    $USD  still in an uptrend holding support at 82 with demand volume positive on the weekly and monthly time frames…long bond hitting exhaustion buy setups on the daily and intra-day yesterday….demand flat there at the moment
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/DX_2.png

  33. 33
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Futures….Strong short term demand volume continues into resistance at 97.50. Market pushing through intra-day DeMark exhaustion setups…See no reason it can't recover to long term acceptance at 98.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Crude_Composite.png

  34. 34
    RMD Says:

    MPO has new presentation they are using in the sell-the-deal roadshow.  It's based on conf. call slides.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    re 34 – Yep, saw it. Did you see my questions above?

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Oil unchanged, NG up a penny, SOX unchanged. Stocks definitely getting pinned about. Pretty typical expiry action. 

  37. 37
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP  E&P ETF…
    Broke above long term acceptance (52) on a strong shift in demand volume.  Expecting short term overbought to work off above support and at least one more upside move this month.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_5.png

  38. 38
    john11 Says:

    ZAZA out with news on drilling its first well in the Woodbine.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zaza-energy-commences-drilling-eaglebine-151500502.html

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    re 38 – Guess they had to spud one after the rumor that HK would take them out turned out to be false. I have decided not to play having a proven better operator in HK to cover that play. 

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    TPLM gaining popularity

  41. 41
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE working sideways above long term acceptance. Demand volume positive and supportive of further upside tests. 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_6.png

  42. 42
    RB Says:

    yep, I sold some stuff to bulk up on TPLM after the Enercom call….and unfortunately, I bid too low to get all I wanted….oh well…it's only munny; who really needs it?

  43. 43
    choices Says:

    #11-waiting for my TISDZ to fire up-heh

  44. 44
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM   after pausing at 6.45 looks to continue up to congestion at 6.78. Demand volume strong in all time frames…
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_7.png

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    OII within a buck of its all time high. 2Q was a smooth sailing quarter, expect more of the same going forward.  Forward valuation will likely get stretched in some analysts minds over $60. 

  46. 46
    Zorgnak Says:

    EXXI looking for this one to work off this extension above support at 33.40. Demand volume setup for more upside
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_8.png

  47. 47
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Good pick-up on TPLM yesterday.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    re 47 – thanks, just adding over time.  CC should be in about 3 weeks, early September. Expecting a good call, more operated well results, some comments on longer term rates, and a smile in their voice when they get asked about their exit rate guidance. 

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Offtopicthirty grabbing lunch. 

  50. 50
    Zorgnak Says:

    MMR  higher lows on the swings into the big bang event….13.51 minor support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_9.png

  51. 51
    Zorgnak Says:

    Energy relative volumes increased since the AM…26 of 85 higher than average with 25 of 85 green

  52. 52
    Zorgnak Says:

    BCEI  punched through what I had as minor resistance yesterday at 19.85…19 would be an area of interest on profit taking. Demand volume positive in all time frames..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_10.png

  53. 53
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX  short term demand volume falling off above support at 12..long term demand volume still positive on weekly and daily..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_11.png

  54. 54
    nrgyman Says:

    PVA selling off.  Fears of an equity offering due to the mixed shelf filing?  What do you expect them to do with financing?

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    re 54 – I think its more likely due to pinning action and then fear over the Shelf. $250 mm to help with capex next year. I think they wait a few months before doing an offering, they don't need to pull the trigger in here and said so earlier this week. But having the shelf in place is good standard practice.   Note that its not a big volume move in the name, but one guy sells on a day like this and another guy sees that and sells and so on and so on. It's not secret they will have a funding gap in 2013 without further financings or asset monetizations. 

  56. 56
    nrgyman Says:

    John Najerian just picked OAS as his play in the energy sector.  Says energy is the market sector for lots of bullish options activity.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    OEDV dropped back to $1 on no news, amended Q includes the data files for interactive use, no change to their numbers. 

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    re 56 – hurray pony tail power. 

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Insider Watch

    EVP Biz Dev

    Exc 75,000 options at $1.18, sold all at $9 

  60. 60
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Re XCO: 1120 September $8 calls were just purchased at a premium of $0.25

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    re 60 – thanks, wasn't me but I have some of those. 

  62. 62
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: OII – Nice

  63. 63
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Re 60 🙂 I am so scared of options. I prefer to buy the stock . Keep it simple!! I hate the time decay. However, I did the TPLM calls last month and went very well. Nice. Thank you.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    re 62 – thanks, inch by inch there. 

  65. 65
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 60:  Well, John Najerian selected XCO as his stock pick of the day at 12:57 PM, even after naming OAS as his favorite energy pick earlier.  Stock popped.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    re 63 – you're welcome …. I like to think of options as appropriate for money I don't really want to keep around. After some expensive lessons they remain a very small piece of my portfolio.   I sometimes write covered calls on ZLT names  and in the ZMT I use them from time to time to either take a speculative ride like today with MMR or to get a little more leverage than the common affords with deeper in the money options like the PVA calls (which will be leaving the building shortly at a small loss). 

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    re 65 LOL, its like he's spying on me. 

  68. 68
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Re 65: He uses the big contract spikes to select his picks. He has that Monster Option programs. Probably he was notified of the 1000 plus contract in one transaction while he was on the program. 🙂 either way, I am long XCO so I like it!

  69. 69
    tomdavis12 Says:

    http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/120073/Chevron_Appeals_Ban_on_Brazil_Operations
    RIG – CHV Looks like Brazil is still being pretty nasty. 

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    re 68 – Oh sure, I'll take the support but I do have a problem with talking heads who know the ticker, the chart, that the company is in the energy space, but little more AND who are perfectly willing to pound the table on it on TV invoking a lemming effect and, I would note, last time I checked, Options Monster doesn't track its performance as they said that's irrelevant to their subscribers.  I'm a former E&P analyst. I track about 100 names.  I own about 28 at the moment.  And you know how long it takes me to get into a name. Those guys on Fast Money etc  are no better than blackjack players in my book, gambling on hot streaks but they don't know what's under the hood. Anyway, end of rant. 

  71. 71
    Zorgnak Says:

    PVA  Long term demand volume remains positive…CLVN  support at 7.10
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_12.png

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    re 69 – CVX should just come home to the arms of the ultra deep Gulf of Mexico shelf and onshore UD Gulf Coast. Buy MMR and forget about dealing with those guys. $21 B in cash and piling up each quarter … makes you wonder what they are waiting for. 

  73. 73
    tomdavis12 Says:

    OAS: Its Friday afternoon. Let the games begin!  😉

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    Next Friday we should say the same of EXXI / MMR

  75. 75
    RB Says:

    re: 70…I can certainly understand your feelings…I appreciate that you try and bring us value, which you obviously do….
    they are trying to build a name, and a brand.  the goal is to make a lot of money…if no value is rendered so be it….
     
     

  76. 76
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Re 70 – Z You are soooo right. Before lending here I used to subscribe to Monster.com. They are right most of the time. But, when they are wrong they are really wrong. In any event, If I know a stock and I see options very active. I like that. Definitely not trying to advertise Monster. These guys probably pump the transaction and dump a few minutes later.

  77. 77
    tomdavis12 Says:

    74: That would be berry berry goooood for us.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    re 75 – I'm just jealous of my space and don't like fast money types playing in my soup (unless I'm really wanting to sell something which I'm generally not). Fast money doesn't know the stories well, doesn't care about valuations, and is as spineless as jellyfish when the market goes against them for two straight hours. 

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    I'll get off my rant box now, doing some reading, shout if you need something. 

  80. 80
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil continues to move up..demand volume remains consistent on each minor pullback…resistance 97.50..support 95
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Crude_Composite_2.png

  81. 81
    Justin Says:

    From the field…Just spoke w/ stepdad in FL, his co is running transmission lines for 3 new power plants – all the fueled by NG!

  82. 82
    Zorgnak Says:

    NaGas futures continue to test defined support at 2.70…demand volume flat
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/NG_Composite.png

  83. 83
    Justin Says:

    RE 81 the

  84. 84
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    COSWF drifting slowly higher; their realized selling price for Syncrude was $90 Q2 2012; WTI was $93;  my personal feeling on share price was a lot of selling occurred due to differntials reported of WTI with respect to Bakken Crude and heavy oil from canada; also volumes processed were lower due to maintenance issue on the oil upgrade facility. the company does not plan or forecast more volume processing downtime but probably fair to say there is a "show me" attitude on that.  Capex above and beyond maintenance has 18 months or so off an additional $2 billion ; this probably curtails enthusiasm short term.. the buy-out of Nexen by CNOOC does include 7.23% of Syncrude; (COSWF is 36.74%); When Sinopec bough Conoco's Syncrude ownership in 2010 the implied value of COSWF was $39 to $40.  I have looked at the buy-out but i do not have an informed answer to the implied value of Nexen's Syncrude ownership without more effort on my part.
    The dividend is secure at $1.40 annual.  Imperial Oil owns 25% of Syncrude and it's operator.  My theory is this is the paint drying story which will see lift as events unfold the next 18 months; now if only we could forecast oil prices!  The removalof the WTI Bakken differential bodes well as last year Syncrude sold at a premium to WTI; that is not what the market beleives in my opinion; and guidance as off July 27th is $90 WTI for the year with $83 realized syncrude pricing.  I own this one with thlong term ebusiness owner mentality so trying to time tops or bottoms I have totally abandoned trying!  I would consider the sale of some shares at $35; a mount everest climb as of today!!

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    re 81 – thanks for that report, back at ya

    http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/table1.4.cfm

    Scan down the right hand column 

  86. 86
    Zorgnak Says:

    FCG..Nat Gas Stock ETF…..straddling defined  resistance in the middle of long term congestion and top of intermediate volume base..phew!……demand volume suggests this will resolve to the upside
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_14.png

  87. 87
    Justin Says:

    How about them apples?  Market-forces pushing generation to cleaner burning fuel.  Shhh…Don't steel the EPA's thunder.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    re 84 – thanks for the update, not my cup a coffee, but interesting. 

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    re 87 – right, it's almost like price took care of price.  

  90. 90
    irongate Says:

    re; 28.
      One thing I would like to see is improvement in the search function.  (but perhaps I am not using it correctly)…  Lets say I have  been out of SWN for awhile… and I want to bone up on what you and they ZM population have been saying on it.   
    So I type "SWN" into the search box and it does a good job of pulling up a LIST of  each "DAY" it was mentioned… and then i click the drill-down to go into that day <b>and THEN have to scroll thru ALL the 100 or so comments that may have mentioned it…   wading thru 100+ posts is somewhat cumbersome.</b>
    One change that might  make it <b>less cumbersome… might be for the Search function to return a list of  "each post"</b> that mentioned it.  this way the user is only scrolling thru the posts that actually mention the ticker, (instead of 100's of other undesired posts that occurred that day).

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZMT – Oyut on PVA Calls

    PVA – Sold the (4) August calls at $2.175 avg, down 13% to close the trade as its fades on expiry Friday. I continue to own the common in the ZLT and ZMT. 

  92. 92
    tomdavis12 Says:

    New low for the VIX today. Who wooda thunk it?

  93. 93
    Zorgnak Says:

    SJT…demand volume returning again on higher lows after downside exhaustion in June
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_15.png

  94. 94
    milepost_43 Says:

    53 REXX..just got on and ckd charts…don't like 12.35ish support break…looks oversold on my primitive TA      
    Zorg- probabilities of 12ish/200dmav holding? ..back to 12.13 as I typed….Thanks..

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    re 90 Thanks. Just to be clear on nomenclature, I'l refer to the Post as what I write each morning and Comments as to what I and others write below it. The search function finds both.

    Here's what I do that saves time instead of scrolling. Use the pull down bar at upper left or the search bar to get to the appropriate post.  Once in a post, use the Find Function of your browser typing in either the ticker or key word (like Brown Dense), and then page through each of those. 

    For instance, if I use the Pulldown menu at upper left near the search bar for CXPO it returns 3 posts under this

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/category/cxpo/

    So I go into the first one of those

     

    I then go to the Find Function of the Browser, in my case Chrome so I click the little wrench at upper right, then click find

    Then I type in Woodbine 

    and it tells me there are 2 references to Woodbine (on the post and comments combined) and then takes me to the first one, highlighting it. 

    It looks like this:

     

    CXPO –  Global Hunter Presentation Wrap (just the Woodbine high points, see notes yesterday for the rest)

    • Mosley well averaged 1,040 Bopd in first 100 days of production, as it essentially refuses to decline. Company did not get into why in their presentation this is but it acts like it has a water drive mechanism and it apparently does not. 
    • They did mention that the Woodbine is spotty and they did not yet announce the next two wells in the program, which have been flowing back for some time now. 
  96. 96
    Zorgnak Says:

    XCO building value above long term acceptance…resistance at 7.84 …overhead begins to diminish above 8.11. Demand volume remains positive and improving .
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_16.png

  97. 97
    irongate Says:

    FST been approached by several buyers – dealreporter

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    re 96 – Good, have been adding to the position of late. 

  99. 99
    irongate Says:

    #90   roger that

  100. 100
    Sheentaa Says:

    Z/BOP: could you add me to the GEVO call. I had a brief flirtation with them a couple of years ago when they were still private. Don't like the economics of most renewables, but GEVO seemed to have a couple of advantages – their ability to use multiple feedstocks and a claimed capital productivity advantage of being able to buy ethanol plants for 50 cents on the dollar and convert them to their technology at a relatively nominal cost. Haven't followed them since until the name popped up on this site not so long ago. PS.The Phd management team made me just a tad nervous – need a really strong willed CFO in that type of environment.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    re 100 –  will do. 

  102. 102
    Zorgnak Says:

    #94..milepost..I'm seeing it the same way as you….that's the way I'm playing it anyway ..I added it back at 12.19 at 13:30 EST. REXX always seems to go further than I expect in either direction.Notice the double distribution of volume on the far left volume profile…a recheck to the middle of that distribution wouldn't surprise me….
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_18.png

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    $96

    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

    Apparently traders think the same about the SPR release as I do. 

  104. 104
    Baylor Says:

    Are we getting near a top?  What overall market catalysts could drive us higher?  Starting to get an itchy sell finger with these fairly sizable gains we've had as of late

  105. 105
    elduque Says:

    Zorg and others, GDP held at the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders and trading above a downtrend line. Looks ok. 

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    re 104 – I do not look for tops and bottoms but anyone else feel free. 

  107. 107
    Zorgnak Says:

    #105…thanks

  108. 108
    Justin Says:

    May be a fool, but took some KOG off the table.  Proceeds may reassert themselves in NOG or OAS at a later date.
    PS.  Still don't think Euro-trash is done.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    re 108 – Agreed, just kicked the can down the cobblestone road a bit. 

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    MPO 5% mini bounce on insider buys

  111. 111
    Justin Says:

    RE: 108
    Still have good KOG stake, but don't want to get my upside expectation allocated too heavily to a take-out.  So shifting a bit to cheaper, but result-getting names…
    SSN – think we could get update on SOA on Sunday night?

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    AhmadIsANutbag Watch:

    http://uk.news.yahoo.com/irans-ahmadinejad-says-no-place-israel-middle-east-105814312.html

  113. 113
    Zorgnak Says:

    #108…I am a fool for sure…and I agree on the euro trash..watching the dollar hold at higher lows/support

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    re 111 – seems likely re timing. Fish should be out by their last comments, then say a week to perforate two zones that would take someone else a day. 

  115. 115
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Futures
    Got DeMark  intra-day exhaustion buy setups at support on NG and UNG this AM…demand volume turning up some..it's early but gotta start somewhere..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/17/Stock_Weekly_2_20.png
     

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    Rig Count Watch

    Oil down 7 to 1,425 vs 1,066 a year ago

    NG rigs down 11 to 484 vs 900 a year ago … I love it when a plan comes together.  

  117. 117
    elduque Says:

    you have definitely been right on the nat gas market. it seems so obvious what is happening, just surprised that we are not trading higher. 

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    I would advise never being surprised by the short term moves in natural gas prices. Supply is still quite high. As we go to more average storage levels and then into deficit this winter I would expect prices to begin to levitate with more stability. 

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty a little early.

    The wrap will be out Saturday morning 

     Have a great weekend! 

  120. 120
    Baylor Says:

    Zorgnak, 50, what is the mmr big bang event?

  121. 121
    elijahwc Says:

    ATPG halted: Now we will get a good look at the bonds Monday.  I show 29.50 flat last on Trace.

  122. 122
    nrgyman Says:

    US oil demand at 4 year low in July.  July may be the trough in oil demand for the US and China if economic activity rebounds, which the market is anticipating.
     
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/17/usa-api-monthly-idUSL2E8JH54Y20120817

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    re 120 – He's talking about the Davy Jones #1 flow test due by the end of August. 

  124. 124
    Justin Says:

    Joey at JPM: XCO PT $6 based on 175% of YE12 NAV.  Not much love. 

  125. 125
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    re:88; thanks Z; trying to contribute more often to the board.  Everyone have a great weekend!

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    ATPG filed Chapter 11

    http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2012/08/17/atp-files-for-bankruptcy.html?ana=yfcpc

  127. 127
    Baylor Says:

    123 thx z. Haven't had as much time to keep up with the details lately

  128. 128
    Baylor Says:

    What's it going to take to get ssn out of the penalty box?  My recent trade there has a decent Sized loss and wondering if this is a multi year dead money trade for me to break even. Cost bases $1.65

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Re SSN  – It will take positive drilling results at Spirit of America II and positive results in their 3rd well to be drilled just to the south of their Gretel II well on the south western side of Montana Bakken play.  Its a high risk name, higher now that they have tunneled through quite a bit of their cash hoard received from the sale of part of their Goshen Wyoming position with only marginal to poor results so far to show for it except for in North Stockyard where they have done well but have very limited running room.  My cost basis does not matter to the market, to me, or to anyone else as I evaluate my sell or don't sell decision.  What the stock is likely worth is the sole determinant of selling, buying, holding. Right now if nothing else works for them they are probably worth $0.35 to $0.50 on cash and reserves as they have no debt, at least in the near term.  If SOA 2 works they are likely worth a lot more than the current level but I'd like to see that well flow and see them drill a second one. The next Montana well is closer to Aberchrombie drilled by CLR which was a moderately successful Bakken well so as long as they are not on the wrong side o the fault (which they were in the Gretel well and should not be in the new location) one would think barring mechanical issues they would have a shot at a better well there. Should have news at SOA2 in the next 1 to 2 weeks and then in the Montana Bakken well in I would guess 3 months. 

  130. 130
    life’s-a-gas Says:

    Exxon and Quatar Petroleum request to build LNG export terminal at Port Arthur.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444375104577595760678718068.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

  131. 131
    italyinvestor Says:

    An options first for me.  So, listening to Z's analysis on KOG's earnings and the discussion from the other great contributors here a few weeks ago, I "lightened up" my KOG exposure by selling some AUG 8 calls agains my long holdings.  Z was right on the money and KOG dipped on the earnings, I was busy and didn't cover, and KOG proceeded its march up. Today I get an assignment notice and I start kicking myself — only to find out i've been assigned on 2 of the 50 contracts.  With the option so far in the money, i'm amazed I didn't get all 50 assigned, but I'm happy with this new options "first."  All have a great weekend!

  132. 132
    snuhart Says:

    re 131

    Don t count the chickens yet.
    I think there s an automatic exercise and further, holder has ( I believe) until tomorrow am to exercise .
    If they re not exercised it would be a most unusual error.

  133. 133
    italyinvestor Says:

    re 132 – roger. will keep fingers crossed. was hoping to eat the cake too

  134. 134
    zman Says:

    Good luck there Italy

    The Wrap is up. 

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    QEP on the tape with a big Williston Basin buy in 

    $1.38 B for production of 10,500 BOEpd and 27,600 net acres in Williams and McKensie Counties, North Dakota

    That's bigger than NOG's TEV with their current production of > 11,000 BOEpd and acreage of 180,000 net acres.  More details in the morning post. 

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    If I back out the production at $80,000 per flowing BOE that leaves me with $540 mm of value for the 27,600 net acres  … or $19,565 / acre. 

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    NOG has I think roughly 35,000 net acres between Williams and McKenzie counties. 

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    QEP slides – first set at the top

    http://ir.qepres.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=237732&p=irol-presentations

    Details in the morning … this is just south and west of NOG's core Windsor area and just west of KOG's Dunn County core, OAS is right to the north as well. More details in the morning but suffice to say its a very nice acquisition comp. 

  139. 139
    academic writing format Says:

    academic writing format

    Zman

Leave a Reply

Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette

s2Member®