23
Jun

Wrap – Week Ended 6/22/2012

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Comments will be included in the Monday Post

46 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 6/22/2012”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    The Blotter Is Updated

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/zeb-zlt-blotter/

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Early season action continues. 

    96L development to cyclone now put at 90% over next 48 hours by NOAA

    http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/storms/storm2_models.html

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    ZLT C and ZMT spreadsheets updated

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Brotherly Love Watch:

    http://www.news24.com/World/News/Any-attack-will-cause-end-of-Israel-Iran-20120623

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    LNG fueled vehicle article NRGY posted late last night

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-21/shale-glut-means-1-a-gallon-savings-at-the-pump.html

  6. 6
    choices Says:

    Interesting site-Fed and State debts-keep the good news coming.
     
    http://truthinaccounting.org/

  7. 7
    Gtinvest Says:

    Z good morning. Unless I am misreading something the wrap ending 6/22/2012 is date June 15 2012?

  8. 8
    choices Says:

    #5-side note: yesterday I followed a city bus powered by CNG (garbage trucks here are also CNG)-noted sign on back, CNG saves "at least" $1.25 per gallon, diesel or gas-other aspect I noted, when bus stopped and then accelerated, no plumes of black or blue smoke from exhaust, completely smoke less-I was impressed.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 7 – oops, thanks, fat finger upload, corrected now. 

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Friend of the site with a new business

    http://pecosfs.com/index.html

    It's also in the link list at upper right under Pecos Field Solutions. 

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    TS Debbie forms in Gulf, 50 mph

    Debbie could be trouble but she's undecided as to port of call at the moment.

    http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/storms/storm2_models.html

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    What??!!  A scientist softens his stance and backs away from Climate Change Dogma.  (NB:  He is does not have to grub for grant money… makes all the difference.  Also, interesting that he says most "environmentalists" do not have a science background… other than "political science."  Explains a lot.)
     
    This is a short — but wonderful — read.  It's practical.  And the fact that it comes from the mouth of the "godfather of global warming" makes it all the sweeter.  Gives me hope for some sanity.  Sure, let's save energy and tread lightly on the earth.  But lets's do it for the right reasons (not the scary ones).  Agree with the comments on energy too:  nuclear and nat gas make sense… wind generators are stupid.
     
    http://www.torontosun.com/2012/06/22/green-drivel

  13. 13
    DaveH Says:

    Z, I noticed that PER is not on your list of high dividend energy stocks.   It is yielding 12.5% and is 80% oil.   Any reason you are not following it closely?

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    re 13 – Not to be blunt about it but: First reason is first name is Sandridge, second reason is I never saw a deal by that was better for the other guy, third was the prospectus was somewhat complex and I like my yield simple and predictable. I have passed on all of their deals. Happy to take another look but this was my original bias vs not holding, that and I can get a similar mix and higher yield on a barrel for barrel basis in other oil names.

  15. 15
    DaveH Says:

    re: 13 – I am up 5.79% on PER from my 8/11/11 buy plus I am receiving the fat dividend so doing pretty well compared to what else I am in.   Past results don't necessarily predict future performance though, as they say.   Yes, I would appreciate if you could take another look.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    I'll put it on the list. 

  17. 17
    choices Says:

    A "couple" of nuggets of optimism within the gloom-I'm always looking:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/679451-weighing-the-week-ahead-chances-for-an-upside-surprise?source=email_authors_alerts&ifp=0

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Re 17 – thanks

  19. 19
    brodway Says:

    re: 17
    Sentiment is more negative than in early 2009
    what a statement. it certainly feels that way because this has drag has now gone on for 5 years. people are throwing in the towel. there is angst and frustration among all of us, although we sometimes don't speak out loud about it. we just stare at the unbelievable and become speechless.
    for the same reasons, however, we are probably entering a period where the gloom and doom crew outnumber the optimists.
    a number of things are starting to look interesting. last week internals started to turn for some sectors and told a different tale than what meets the eye. the potash stocks bottomed and easily gained 10% on a snap back. also many stocks are seeing some pretty big volumes, which is a good sign that strong hands are starting to enter the beaten down names. we are also starting to hear more out of the opportunistic types such as Icahn, Ross, Cooperman, etc.  These guys are pros and smell a bargain. Buyouts seem like they are not far up ahead. 
    Unless we are entering another period like 2009, i think we are looking at some amazing bargains. 

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Re 19 – I for one am NOT AT ALL in the angst ridden towel throwing crowd. Also I don't agree that its been five years at least from a market standpoint, take a look at the group and a chart of the SPX during that period. This is what an L-shaped recovery looks like. People who are shocked about the recent declines in the group don't understand what they own or haven't been around a long time. Four months of decline in my book is a blink of an eye in my investing time horizon and I'm happier when everyone is content than when everyone is high fiving over higher stock prices. 

  21. 21
    brodway Says:

    Zman
    i was referring to the market in general, not necessarily energy in particular. 
    L shape recoveries may be a slow grind. In the lower part of the L, there are a number of stocks with losses amounting to 50% from peak to trough.  in this L shape recovery, there are investors that get frustrated  sell out and never come back. this is what i was referring to. this is becoming evident when looking at the way things sell off.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    re 21 – It was the comment "here is angst and frustration among all of us"  that I was responding to. This is the weekend wrap, and as such its open to the public so I wanted it to be clear I am not in that camp. I have been slowly adding to positions as things come in.  

  23. 23
    brodway Says:

    i'm a bit perplexed by the fact that the VIX has been much more stable then last fall when prices collapsed. oddly there a number of  instances where prices have dropped to levels of last fall.
    can one assume that the rise in VIX is yet to come? or is this more in line with a mild type of a correction.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

  24. 24
    brodway Says:

    Zman.
    i did not see your response to this choice over at  CHK. do you believe that this is someone that can work together/control  Aubrey? 
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06bf8eb0-bc56-11e1-a470-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1yjuFGoW1

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    re 24 – I don't know the guy by reputation, just what I have read in the press. The choice of someone from a major is a bit  of deliberate conservatism on their part, almost like they are advertising they are toning things down a bit. I would have preferred to see Hackett in the roll. New guy will have hist hands full I'm sure bending the culture there though, see ECA and CHK on the tape today with allegations of efforts to not run lease prices up in Michigan … to me that's just being smart instead of repeating what happened from Haynesville to Utica but the article uses words like "plotted" so it will be more bad press for CHK (although unlikely to amount to much from what I can tell so far). I think this is largely rehash of prior stories about CHK (and most big E&Ps) using shell companies to do their leasing. Big deal, its done all the time, if you get a lease check cash it quickly and move on. 

  26. 26
    brodway Says:

    i was just thinking how this new 72 year old CHK choice is going to keep up with the young and rambunctious Aubrey.

  27. 27
    brodway Says:

    one of the comments someone made recenty about the HK/GEOI arbitrage peaked my interest. Zman do you see how this can be played out in a profitable way?

  28. 28
    nrgyman Says:

    3:22 PM 22.7% of daily oil and 22.9% of daily natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has now been shut-in in anticipation of Tropical Storm Debby, up from 7.8% and 8.2% yesterday. The Gulf accounts for 20% of U.S. oil production and 6% of natural gas output.   (from Seeking Alpha).

  29. 29
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    Weekend Homework Notes
    S&P Futures Key levels
    Market unable to hold above 1341.50 level last week after rejecting previous acceptance at 1358.50 as too high. Market bounced off a 
    test of the long and short term volume pivot at 1318 after extreme readings in price range/breadth/volume and volatility reactions post
    Fed day. Expecting more chop and volatility above 1286.75 at best. If 1286.75 is broken
    expecting recent lows to be tested with 1252.25 as major support. Watching 1321 near support and 1363.50 near resistance for early indications of
    market strength/direction.
    Demand volume in the various time frames looks mixed to me, at best and at a tipping point at worst . I'm working off a short term choppy  scenario above 1309 that grows more negative the further below 1309 the market trades. I see upside attempts as opportunities for selling. 
     
     1358………Upper Volume Pivot..market last week unable to traded beyond this congestion area to upper resistance at 1363.50.
     1341.50..Expect resistance here to be solid without macro shift. A break higher has substantial congestion above.
     1330.50..Upside congestion for any move off support at 1321
     1321…..Key short term Low volume rejection area. Break of this support area leads back to major congestion/chop and increased volatility.
     1300-18..Long and short term volume pivot/acceptance.Previous news/rumor chop area.  Presently acting as short term volume base. 
     1286.75..Short term volume void begins. A break here opens a test of recent lows, support at 1252.50.
     1252-58..Major Low volume area. Potential support and bottom of potential longer term trading range. 
     
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/24/ES_Composite.png

  30. 30
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    XLE Recent oversold bounce to well defined resistance(63.50). Weak volume support below  with little evidence of improving demand volume.85% of buying volume
    under water since May and above resistance. Short of a macro shift, upside seems a grind at best with the downside having little in the way of defined support until 62.50 minor and
    60-61 Major. Looks choppy at best unless crude oil gets a bid.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/24/Stock_Weekly_2.png 

  31. 31
    Zorgnak Says:

     
     
    Crude Futures
    Minor short term resistance at 81.50 with 83.50 most recent acceptance and 85 as far resistance. Crude futures registered exhaustion buy setups in the daily 
    and hourly time frames last Thurs-Friday and this week will register a weekly exhaustion buy setup. Expecting backing and filling below 83 with 85 as an 
    important hurdle for bulls. .Last week demand volume new hit lower lows than the the 2008-09 crude oil selloff. Exhaustion and mean reversion studies suggest 
    the little bounce Friday may have more to run. I see a trading range below 85 until demand volume improves on other than an intraday time frame.
     
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/24/Crude_2.png

  32. 32
    Zorgnak Says:

     
     
    XOP  E&P choppy and volatile sideways action continues with demand volume showing signs of life or at least less death on the last swing low. XOP is trading above support 
    at 45.50, far support at 43, near resistance at 49. E&P  group still moving easier on the down days than on the up days with a wide variance in individual stock
    performance.  
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/24/Stock_Weekly_2_3.png

  33. 33
    elduque Says:

    Food for thought:
    I do a weekly exercise of plotting a no. of our favorites vs. USO for the last 273 days. Worst performing stock over that time period is not UNG (down 35%), CHK (down 11%), but is NFX (down 37%). Go figure.
     
    Incidentally USO plotted against SPY is down 27%. Or another of way looking at it NFX is down 64% vs the SPY.
     
     

  34. 34
    choices Says:

    SWN: As reported in Alpha Friday, someone made a bet on SWN:
    bot 3,000 Jan 14 calls, strike 33;
    sold 3,000 Jan 14 puts, strike 23;

  35. 35
    choices Says:

    calls @$3.75, puts @$3.20

  36. 36
    choices Says:

    Good advice from German Finance Minister:
     
    Schaeuble dismissed advice from U.S. President Barack Obama, who has called on Europe to do more to fight the crisis.
    "Mr. Obama should focus on reducing the American deficit," Schaeuble said. "It's higher than in the euro zone. You have to understand that people are always ready to give others advice quickly. Our argument is 'we're ready' (to do more). We want more Europe."

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    re 27 – I believe that was DaveH's idea. Essentially if you hold through the date of the closing and the deal happens (and I think it highly that the deal happens), the the GEOI purchase is the better deal due to the cash component. I own the HK shares as my initial reaction to the deal was positive and I wasn't sure I'd be out for a nice trade pre deal closing. But the Dave's math was solid as GEOI holders get cash and discounted HK shares. 

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the levels Zorg, much appreciated.

    re 36 – No doubt, clean up your own lawn pal before you go yardcrashing.   

  39. 39
    brodway Says:

    "E&P  group still moving easier on the down days than on the up days with a wide variance in individual stock performance. "
    Zorg…
    very well said. exactly what has been happening.

  40. 40
    elduque Says:

    Large spike in volume in GDP in the last half hour on Friday. Zorg, do you have any thoughts as to what it means.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    re 40 – many of the names had big last minute volume increases on the Russell rebalance. 

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    re 40 – pick just about any minute chart you like, all of the E&P names had the rebalance effect in them. 

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Re 39 – Which is way we await quarter end at least and more sideways trading prior to getting more aggressive. 

  44. 44
    Zorgnak Says:

    #41….thanks….I didn't know that

  45. 45
    nrgyman Says:

    Amidst the energy sector gloom and under-performance, UBS says it is time to overweight energy stocks:
     
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-25/oil-stocks-biggest-losers-with-valuations-lowest-since-2009-1-.html

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    HK out with ops update, deets in Monday post

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