09
Jun

Wrap – Week Ended 6/08/12

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Wrap comments will be included in the Monday post. Enjoy the weekend. 

37 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 6/08/12”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Saudi Arabia production down to 9.8 mm bopd in May, from 10.1 mm bopd in March /April, according to another industry source today. 

  2. 2
    brodway Says:

    Who would have thunk?

  3. 3
    Alhambra Says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/05/us/mineral-leases-give-boost-to-rural-ohio.html?_r=1&src=rechp

  4. 4
    Alhambra Says:

    Oil revenue in ND prompts citizens to propose ending property tax; wow, disconnect happens quickly.  (Maybe they could use their reserves to build bigger roads, increase housing and other infrastructure that helps the oil companies and its citizens alike. But why do something prudent, when you could do the opposite.)
    http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/will-north-dakota-be-the-first-state-to-end-property-taxes-85899396968

  5. 5
    mimster90 Says:

    For those who like MLP's like Line, and I am one of those. EVEP has come in a lot recently for ~$75 to ~$50. zman doesn't follow Evep closely but I know there are a few others here who do.  With so many of the names we follow having come in recently I just wanted to add another name to the pot.

  6. 6
    choices Says:

    The link provides Holmes' Investor Alert-I found the comments in Energy/Nat Resource informative but maybe not news to people on this board FWIW:
    http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/

  7. 7
    choices Says:

    Zerohedge having trouble coping w/Spanish bailout of 100 bil euros and counting…as zorg suggested few days ago after reading zero, maybe time to check level of canned rations in my bunker…

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futures.. Key Weekly Volume Profile Levels
    Market continues find balance around major long term acceptance at 1298.25.
    Support and resistance zones at 1253.50/1337.25 frame the current range.
    Expecting market trades within this range until European and Fed  policy moves
    become more defined. Multiple market moving European events on the calender .
    FOMC  is on tap next week (6/19) in the midst of a major POMO buying sequence
    beginning this week from 6/14-6/22. Recent low volume oversold bounce now 10pts below important resistance.
    Volume demand remains weak/negative on all but intraday time frames.
    Major Levels of Interest
    1337.25 Resistance..Wide zone 1333-1340.
    1312    Short term acceptance…Short term pivot
    1298.75 Long term acceptance..Price magnet 1298-1312
    1286.50 Support…..Long term congestion 1286.50-1320
    1253.50 Key Support…Wide Zone 1253.50-58.50
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/10/ES_Weekly_2.png
     

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP
     Low volume bounce off key support/long term volume base at 45.50 last week.Next major support at 37.
    Closed Friday above minor support (47.48). Market trading between two major acceptance
    areas at 40.50 and 52. Expecting choppy trading between support/resistance 45.50/49.89 while
    awaiting resolution of market trading range. Volume demand weak/negative in all but intra-day
    time frames.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/10/Stock_Weekly_2_2.png
     

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Similar setup as XOP…Support/Resistance 61/66.60.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/10/Stock_Weekly_2_3.png

  11. 11
    elduque Says:

    Continue to be amazed by how negative all the news is. Sounds like China is collapsing because industrial production grew 9.6% instead of an expected 9.9%. Even though Spain is rescued it isn't enough. And on and on.
     
     

  12. 12
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    sounds like you are not convinced of the ever so slight rebound in energy. i concur that the more favorable view  we had experienced early in the year in energy names seems to be eroding for now . 
    let's see what happens when OPEC meets next week.

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    #12  brodway…
    I see a few E&P charts  with positive volume demand that might be attractive…. EPL, PVA, HK come to mind. Not too many out of all the ones I track.  Last summer's market action is an analog that I'm honoring at the moment until there's more volume demand in growth oriented groups. Right now utilities and Govt Bonds are leading the pack. Not normally a great sign.
    Still looks slippery out there to me for anything other than a swing trade.

  14. 14
    brodway Says:

    Re: 13
    those may be good examples, but they are far and few between.
    i am starting to like the more stable action in NOG. stock has not broken down below 16 16 1/2 and seems to want to trend higher. same in TPLM

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    #14..No lack of "value" targets out there and I hope you're right.

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro opening strong on Spain bailout news…

  17. 17
    choices Says:

    Additional negatives (as if we needed more)-OPEC-maybe this is a sign that "blood is (starting) to run in the streets."
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/06/10/opecs-pending-bloodbath/
    "pending bloodbath"-jeez

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    re 16 – as Bernanke said last week "a billion here, a billion there" shrug. 

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    re 17 – I read that earlier, don't agree with some it, I do think the author has some mixed messages in there and likes to use the words "blood bath". I think the Saudis are quite aware of recent history and this is why they are pulling numbers back. The author talks about "broken demand side fundamentals" but I don't see the numbers on that .  China just cut retail prices 5% for the second time in a month on the drop in crude prices by the way. Anyway, another fear laced article with lots of trouble bubble headlines but little in the way of back up.  Iran would not be the only player who wouldn't like $85 oil by the way, so the situation isn't as simple as Riyadh vs Tehran. 

  20. 20
    elduque Says:

    Zorg- if market opens up as strong as it is right now. Makes for a very difficult day. So far it has paid to fade any large pop. Also, always hard to buy something up 2% plus from the previous close. Wish it were easier. 
     
     

  21. 21
    Popeye Says:

    15: Me too! Holding NOG & TPLM & SSN. I'm in no hurry.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Spain and China (they cut product pricing).

    Crude up $2+ @ $86.50 http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

    Futures:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

  23. 23
    crysball Says:

    10 Camels  and 20 Chickens
    Al Shababab  is  offering  10 Camels  for  BHO  and  20 Chickens for Hillary, as a counter   to  the US   $$$ Bounty  of  Al Quaida  chieftains.
    Guess  they  have a pretty  good valuation  on US  Politicians????

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Things Iran Should Have Done Years Ago Watch: Build an export hub at Jask, Gulf of Oman. Gee I wonder what the message is to SA in front of the OPEC meeting.  How about, "Dear Kingdom, mess with us more and someday we'll shut the Strait of Hormuz and still be able to export … good luck getting much of your oil out on the Red Sea side, Best, Iran."

  25. 25
    crysball Says:

    China  increases   import  of  Crude  in May:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-10/china-boosts-crude-imports-to-record-high-as-prices-decline.html

  26. 26
    RB Says:

    Bloomberg speaking of  much higher oil imports by China the past month taking advantage of cheaper oil

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    re 26 – they had lots of people in line for diesel over the last several months, so now dropping prices is going to spur higher, not lower demand.   The May numbers still include a bit of storage tank fill up (their SPR) but I don't see them falling off. If you look at OPEC figures for the globe, they have a 2 mm bopd jump in demand from 2Q to 3Q. They should change their forecast tomorrow or Tuesday but I don't expect things to suddenly grind to a halt on that front and OPEC does some of the best work on demand out there in my opinion. 

  28. 28
    Zorgnak Says:

    #20..Ain't it the truth..the pop as, it stands now, takes us right to resistance…..it'll be interesting to see where we sit in the AM
    Here's some thoughts from Reformed Broker to stir the pot a bit more
    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/06/10/a-few-things-to-keep-in-mind/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

  29. 29
    elduque Says:

    anybody have a complete listing of Enercom's London conference?
     
    Notice EXXI is there on June 13th.

  30. 30
    brodway Says:

    re: 28
    Zorg.
    you did mention the 1337-1342 range as resistance. we may be there tomorrow.

  31. 31
    Zorgnak Says:

    #30…Looks like it……I'm all for a bigger bounce into OPEX and the big POMO cycle/ FOMC hope-fest. I've got some pesky naked puts that need some help.
    I'll have some refreshed levels and a couple of scenarios/guesses out tomorrow AM depending on where the open looks to be headed.

  32. 32
    choices Says:

    APC-summary of legal prob-Tronox-hard to believe it is 25 bil but sentiment against deep pockets of oil/gas runs against APC
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/anadarko-was-part-of-25-billion-scheme-u-s-says.html
    I have a position in APC.

  33. 33
    brodway Says:

    re: 31
    talking about naked puts, i have some myself. actually initiated one on Friday in SWN.
    looked at the long term chart (5 years) and couldn't see how it could break 25. decided to sell them for a few dimes with only a week into expiration. 

  34. 34
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    it's a bit awkward to come up with a meaningful scenario when the volume isn't consistent with certain moves up or down.

  35. 35
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Maybe the bottom is in for the Canadian oil producers; two years of falling equity prices on increasing profits until maybe the last few weeks.  COSWF rally on   🙂

  36. 36
    Zorgnak Says:

    #34..I don't know about awkward but sometimes there's certainly  more clarity than others.  What's meaningful isn't just the scenarios that come and go but the day to day exercise of creating them and putting a plan in writing to deal with the probabilities that I see, in advance.  Far fewer surprises than flying by the seat of my pants.   I have two or three scenarios everyday and plans for what may happen. I find that I'm smarter when the market is closed and the trade hasn't been placed yet. The trick for me is sticking to the plan…a work in progress.
    I find that waiting is the hardest plan to follow.
     

  37. 37
    skimo Says:

    TPLM in with data on their first 2 operated wells, looks pretty good for a first timer! At least to my untrained eye it looks like their 7 day net production increase for the 2 wells together was over 1100 bopd, without any contribution from gas or liquids.
     
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/triangle-petroleum-announces-operated-well-075403642.html

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