2011 Wrap (In Progress)

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Have a safe and Happy New Year's Eve and a Prosperous 2012!

If you missed the Goodbye 2011 post with last free looks at the Natural Gas Storage situation, the Oil Inventories update, and the Natural Gas Supply Slide Show please click here.

If you missed my thoughts for this year, please click here.

The Wrap Comments

1) Equity Index Performance ... Yawn ... Much Ado About Nothing ... Move On, Nothing To See Here - all phrases that come to mind as the S&P closes within four hundredths of a point of where it started the year. I don't really watch the DJIA (up 5% on the year) as it's an overly narrow indicator of not very much that's important to what I care about. The energy indexes did little as well in 2011 with the notable exception of the OIH which tanked in the second half of the year over fears of a U.S. / Europe / Rest of World slowdown.  Oil Service earnings estimates have come off to be sure but the stalwarts and many of the more specialty players are well into bargain territory now.  Many of our oilier E&P names are trading near where they started the year despite several of our names doubling and even tripling production from start to finish.

2) Commodity Prices - Stronger Oil; Weaker Natural Gas - Strong for domestic oil as Cushing stocks declined in the back half of the year even as increasing volumes from North Dakota headed south. Gasoline was strong but weakening into year and demand has not responded well to lower prices at the pump for the first time in the last 3 years. Diesel demand has been especially strong with higher volumes leaving the country and the historic average 3-2-1 mix has been pushed as far as is likely possible towards the distillates side.

3) Rig Counts - Big Shift - See comments in the Hello 2012 piece.

4) Alternative Energy In 2011 = The Place Not To Be. Looking at the TAN and GEX ETF's all one can say is wow that's ugly. We stayed away from the sector all year as having fiscal difficulties in Europe and California (the real drivers of solar demand via subsidies) seemed like it would be bad for the group. More on this next week.

Wrap comments to be added over the weekend.

18 Responses to “2011 Wrap (In Progress)”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Iran says Happy New Year


  2. 2
    skimo Says:


  3. 3
    Justin Says:

    Sdcjf: DJ Basin 33% WI well reaches TD and has oil show. No rate yet.

  4. 4
    ram Says:

    Happy New Tear Zman. Are there 2x or even 3x etf’s for oil?

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 4 – for oil itself? Not sure. For exposure to oil their are DUG and DIG which are double short and double long ETFs, there are some triples too but I don’t use ETFs so I don’t keep up with them.

  6. 6
    Wyoming Says:

    3x is ERX and ERY bull and bear respectively. I don’t trade them either.

  7. 7
    skimo Says:

    Good news for the new year. May be a duplicate of someone’s earlier post.

  8. 8
    john11 Says:

    I use PowerShares double short oil a fair amount;
    double short is DTO.
    Here’s a link to their products, useful hedges.

  9. 9
    ram Says:

    Thank you Zman and Wyoming. Happy New Year.

  10. 10
    ram Says:

    Thanks John11.

  11. 11
    ram Says:

    Happy New Year John11.

  12. 12
    john11 Says:

    Thx Ram..Happy New Year everyone and thanks to all for your help throughout the year.
    You’ve built a great site Zman, thank you so much!

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Thanks John, looking forward to getting back to it tomorrow!

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Back into triple digits


  15. 15
    zman Says:

    BP – said to be seeking $20 B from HAL. Saying they want clean up costs and lost profits on Macondo.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Oil over $101, up 2.6%

    S&P Fut up 2%

  17. 17
    Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Welcome To January 2012 Says:

    […] Comments zman on 2011 Wrap (In Progress)zman on 2011 Wrap (In Progress)zman on 2011 Wrap (In Progress)zman on 2011 Wrap (In Progress)john11 […]

  18. 18
    2011 Wrap (In Progress) | Your Blog Says:

    […] Slide Show please click here. If you missed my thoughts for this year, please click here. The […] Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… This entry was posted in General and tagged 2011, Progress, Wrap by admin. Bookmark the […]

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