25
Aug

Thursday post – the lighting ate my homework ….

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... And half my office equipment. We are offline in the office and are working to replace equipment, gee windows 7 is fast, and ask that you please bear with us until later today when we should be somewhat more recovered. Thanks to my iPad I can see the markets and the site, and gladly, our servers are in Austin' safely tucked away from severe weather.

Some brief thoughts:

Oil: Oil inventories were ok, with Cushing volumes holding flat and stocks erasing part of last weeks SPR inspired surge as refiners added late season throughput in the last gasoline making hurrah of the season I've been looking for,

Gasoline demand was ok and I'd expect a slight uptick in demand for the next couple of reports.

Natural gas: the Street is looking for a 73 bcf injection this morning. I cannot access my files at the moment and I hadn't worked up a number for the week when I lost power yesterday so I won't comment. Other than to say that it really doesnt matter a lot at the moment as it's well over the average build for this time of year and gas is likely to remain range bound until supply related changes, and not seasonal demand influences take hold.

Other stuff
Jobless claims came in at 417k vs 405k expected
Crude is trading up 50 cents early
Natural gas is trading flat

I'll have part two of the gulf players update out on Monday

90 Responses to “Thursday post – the lighting ate my homework ….”

  1. 1
    bill Says:

    short interest was updated yesterday. Atpg soared as their 3rd well came online and shorts ran for the hills

    MHR has a large short position. Nog declined a tad

  2. 2
    bill Says:

    robry has ng at + 83

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill

    MHR up nicely since Tuesday CC

    TPLM trying to bounce too. Lots of the little names were just abandoned without cause.

    Have not yet caught Cramer on the Bakken, wondering if he highlighted any names in particular? CLR spoke i know but thats a far cry from cutting edge in the play.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    OT. Berkshire to invest $5B in BAC

  5. 5
    elduque Says:

    Bank stocks are all up huge.

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    Short Term S&P Futures Areas of Interest
    Market continues to reject acceptance at 1163.50 as too low and sets up an open outside yesterday’s range.
    Key near term level of interest are yesterday’s and O/N highs near 1177 as support and the next acceptance area above at 1192.25 and
    gap close at 1188 as upside magnets.

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    1192.25 Acceptance/Blanace
    1188 Gap Close
    1184 CLVN, Resistance
    1171.50 CLVN, Support
    1163.50 Major CHVN, Rally Pivot, O/N Low 1165.50, Wednesday’s VPOC 1163
    1149.75 CLVN, Support

    VPOC=Session Volume Point of Control/Acceptance
    CLVN =Composite Low Volume Node/ Rejection CHVN= Composite High Volume Node/Acceptance and Congestion
    Big Picture
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/08/25/ES_Composite_2

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Gap Closed…1188…1176-77 next support
    1171.50 key support

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Despite Buffets move I would not imagine the market can get much raction before tomorrow. Ben is now widely expected to do little more than say he has tools to aid e economy if it worsens.

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    GDX held 59 support on retest

  11. 11
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 3 I watched Cramer’s show yesterday. He didn’t recommend any names. But the show was interrupted by CNBC after about 40 minutes for their special about Jobs resigning as Apple CEO. Maybe Cramer would have made recommendations in the last 20 minutes. He mostly covered generalities but was very up beat about the huge expansion going on in N. Dakota. The CEO of BEXP was interviewed on one of the CNBC on site clips yesterday. I don’t recall if it was Cramer or an earlier one. The CNBC coverage should get some people interested in the ZLT names IMO.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    OK, thanks much DaveH

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…order flow and volume pretty thin, noisy……testing first support at 1176-77..
    1171.50 more significant for bulls

  14. 14
    john11 Says:

    Actually they ran the entire Cramer/Bakken show on the west coast later in the evening and the HAL guy was given some excellent coverage. At the end Cramer actually drank some of the “food grade” fracking fluid. Still can’t stand the huckster.

  15. 15
    Robert Says:

    How many people listen to NPR?

    How many listen to CNBC?

  16. 16
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Ken Heebner has a big position in NOV. Note, however, they don’t call Heebner the mad bomber for nothing. He has been know to change his views at the drop of a hat.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Thanks John, had a friend record it, guess i dont need to watch it now, lol

  18. 18
    milepost_43 Says:

    #3 TPLM added on pullback the other day…2Q PR in next 2 weeks??

  19. 19
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    For you day traders, Doug Kass thinks the market made its high for the day on the Buffett news.

  20. 20
    choices Says:

    SDRL-large beat on earnings, $1.29 vs consensus 0.69, I will defer to TomD on analysis but stk weak this AM

    http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay#sdrl
    Bottom of page=SDRL

    weakness in stk may be related to this:

    http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=U-i0791279-U%3aSDRL-
    20110824&symbol=SDRL&region=U

    Looks to me like a strong Q, considering the outside factors-I am long with a fair amt.

  21. 21
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    OT — what is funny is that a bull on BAC and the Freddie and Fannie preferreds is our friend Bronte. Go figure.

  22. 22
    choices Says:

    2nd link in #20 boloxed up:

    http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=U-i0791279-U%3aSDRL-20110824&symbol=SDRL&region=U

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    MP – yes, should be first 10 days or so of Sept Expect an update on the non operated program only, should be a number of wells to talk about thay are completered with several more to complete near term.

  24. 24
    elduque Says:

    If you are a day trader and paying attention to what anyone else says, you are in deep trouble.

  25. 25
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Notes from SDRL CC: Earnings a little lite. Mostly higher taxes. Solid operations. Dividend will stay @ .75/q thru end of year. Will address any changes after ’12 1stQ. $579M EBITDA. With UDW availability & 10% yield we are at good entry point. Alf is expecting significant new discoveries will keep pricing strong (W Africa & Brazil). He is most optimistic about GOM going forward. Analysts as always more worried than company. Alf seeing cap ex spending strong and not as much economic uncertainty as is feared.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    73 Bcf injection

    4.6% below yr ago
    1.9% below 5 yr avg

  27. 27
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Choices: The beat was the gain from their position in PDE. They also had nonrecurring gain in 1stQ this year and will have more in 3rd & 4th due to sale of older equip. With all upcoming newbuilds their fleet will be 59 units with NONE older than built in 2007.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tom, did they give thoughts on udw growth around world, are they saying very high utilization?

    OII benfits from all the higher dw talk activity, stock come off with rest of service …. No impact by $80 oil on dw thinking. More rigs being added equals more ROVs needed and OII is the biggest name out there, generally winning between 3 out of 5 bids. Margins are heading back up. Thinking they rally into their next set of numbers

  29. 29
    tomdavis12 Says:

    22 Choices: I did not see anything to be concerned about in the link you posted.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    ATPG ….nice off the bottom call Bill

    TPLM hanging $5

    Everything else looks to be marking time

    If Ben says little I wonder if CNBS goes back to nightly “markets in turmoil” broadcasts.

  31. 31
    choices Says:

    Thanks, TomD. By now, I should know not to trust the headlines and to dig into the details.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    OT. Anyone use a Win7 capable dual monitor video card they like. Mine are fried

  33. 33
    tomdavis12 Says:

    28 Z: yes the magic # is $500K/day for the UDW. If the street sees that, they should relax a bit more. SDRL is still not signing contracts for some UDW because they are expecting firmer pricing. On Cape Cod vacation but Irene headed our way. May have to hurry up and start drinking.

  34. 34
    DaveH Says:

    Z, you had mentioned a few days ago you were planning to roll your GEOI into CRZO. Now that you have sold GEOI are you still planning to buy CRZO?

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Dave – most probably, but it’ll be next week or later when i do it.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    33 thanks. Stay dry

  37. 37
    choices Says:

    German DAX has been and is getting pounded-one of few decent economies in Europe-

    Z, do you know when the results of Ben’s speech from the Black Hole will be public?

    Thanks.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Choices, apologies, not sure.

  39. 39
    Zorgnak Says:

    RT
    tradefast tradefast
    DAX underperforms in Europe cuz 1) GER will carry the cost of any bailouts 2) if EMU fails, GER currency soars and hurts GER economy

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Dax coming back after sp, Moodys and Fitch reaffirm AAA rating

  41. 41
    Bob Says:

    32: I recently upgraded to (2) Nvidia GeForce 9500GT 1024MB Dual DVI cards. With 3 EVGA USB adapters, gives me 7 fast screens, no lag on Win7. Are you still using your 2 EVGA 16 adapters?

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Bob – thanks much. I was just looking at that exact card on amzn shop and the nvidia site. Re the two usb uga’s. I was they are dead too now as are usb ports on that side of the laptop.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Bob. So you have two of those cards in the same box?

  44. 44
    Zorgnak Says:

    VPOC shifted down… looking for some relief from the selling here…a break above 1168.25 would be big for the bulls

  45. 45
    choices Says:

    From a TD Amer service, I have been seeing a steady reduction in Q3 consensus earnings projections the last couple of weeks-the most recent was EXXI-from $0.606 to $0.581-not earth shattering but steady down, 1,2,3 cents-FWIW.

  46. 46
    Zorgnak Says:

    GDXJ over GDX today

  47. 47
    Bob Says:

    43: Yes. Here is link to the system I got about 3 months ago:

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/300554117259?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1438.l2649

    The UVGA 16’s still available, but the UVGA 19’s are better for 24″ screen resolutions

  48. 48
    Popeye Says:

    HK funds just showed up in my account.

  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:

    Europe closed….

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Bob

  51. 51
    choices Says:

    OT-Z, “your” Zillow IPO (Z) has caught fire after plunging from offer price of $60 down to ~23- last couple of days, has moved from 23 to $32 as of today-heh

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Re 51. Nice

    In todays claims numbers are 8,500 striking Verizon workers. Um, striking?

  53. 53
    cargocult Says:

    Any thoughts on the revised estimates for the Marcellus Shale by the EIA?

  54. 54
    choices Says:

    Keystone XL:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/state-department-review-to-find-pipeline-impact-limited-sources-say/2011/08/23/gIQAx2BJcJ_story.html?hpid=z2

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Re Marcellus. I noted earlier this week the estimate was sharply higher than the original govt estimate. The USGS often is slow to increase their estimates and inthink that is the case here. The increase was very large over the old jumber but not as large as some of the numbers out there that have been generally accepted as reluable. In time i would think they will increase it again. I wish it was the case there that the play is smaller as that wou
    D lead to higher gas pirces … Just kidding, more gas is a good thing. But in this case i dont think the new numbers are an indication of a smaller than expected play. The bump in liquods alone went from only 10 mm barrels to over 3 billion barrels.

  56. 56
    1520sbroad Says:

    #52 – those verizon workers are no longer striking. Based on the picket lines that I saw here in NJ, very few of the membership of the IBEW and Communications Workers Union are in fact “striking” in the other interpretation of the word sense…

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Gold now up $10 if my screen is accurate. Roubini has been gloating about the fall, that guy is a jerk. VTZ – you buying this recent dip?

    Good news on the lightning front. Old Harddrived slaved into new box and works.

    TPLM – back to $5 , all other Bakkens off a bit, market down butnjust holding breathnbefore tomorrow.

    Zorg or JB, got levels?

  58. 58
    Jerome Blank Says:

    S&P daily cash chart added to chart book….big picture near term topside resistance currently at the 1190 area , support 1140-1150….

  59. 59
    VTZ Says:

    Yes, but only what I trimmed around 1850 and I plan to buy a longer dated Futures Option call as well but I am holding off on that for some indicators.

  60. 60
    elduque Says:

    I think the market is ok. We are just not over leveraged the way were two years ago.

    We may not grow as fast as everyone likes but as far as oil is concerned, we don’t need growth to have the price go up. Just the BRIC’s to keep growing.

  61. 61
    elduque Says:

    I am not sure about Gold. The large gold miners still are cheap compared to the physical, even with this downdraft.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Interesting rally in crude today sans equity market support. Agree with you on the economy, flat or small decline equals diminimus reduction in US demand

  63. 63
    cargocult Says:

    diminimus, impressive.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    You should catch me on a good day,lol

    1 screen sucks, fyi, dont try it

    Installing office xpnstandard on win7, cant stand the new excel

    Jb – thanks much

  65. 65
    Zorgnak Says:

    #57
    Gold levels?…
    I bought the 59 level on GDX yesterday…. retested there today. Added some GDXJ this morning…so far so good.

  66. 66
    DaveH Says:

    GLNG price is back to where it was in late April. Most of the other momo oil and gas names are back to much earlier prices so GLNG has held up better than most. Might be an opportunity to buy it around here.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Thanks zorg

    Daveh- thanks for headsup

  68. 68
    choices Says:

    Reports on Irene indicate this could be a real doozy-pounding Bahamas currently-supposed to hit NC Sat and move up the coast.

  69. 69
    VTZ Says:

    In gold, to me the most important action is around 1760-1765, 1680 and 1620.

  70. 70
    Zorgnak Says:

    Gold Futs
    Bounced back into a fairly wide acceptance area between 1700-1800
    The low 1700’s look to be the most defined support and 1800 resistance. GC does not trade like the S&P(ie I’m not good at it)…levels are less defined and reliable. Overnight trading is more a factor than say in the S&P, at least until lately….
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/08/25/gold_2

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Re 68- from a purely NG demand, perspective it will be a downer as well

    Re 69. Roubini has resorted to calling goldbugs cranks and saying that it is a bubble that has popped. The bigger bubble is his ego. And since he said it would only get to $1100 and calls others idiotsni dont know why he gets so much press. AJC had one good call too and she wasnt even a stopped clock

  72. 72
    Justin Says:

    Macro item –

    Any of you seen the Porter Stansberry clip on the devaluation of the dollar and its loss of status as a reserve currency? It seems a bit too extreme.

    http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSISBBVD/OPSIM803/PR

  73. 73
    choices Says:

    http://www.oilandgas360.com/media.htm

    http://www.hola-arkansas.com/prnewswire_news/46670/enercom-s-oil-gas-360-interviews-executives-at-the-oil-gas-conference-16

    Enercom posting interviews of execs of some of our names.

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…continue to trade back and forth with 1163.50 acceptance as a pivot..
    I can see a move higher if 1168.25 is broken to the upside..

  75. 75
    1520sbroad Says:

    More Bakken trickle down…

    MINNEAPOLIS, Aug. 25, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ — Canadian Pacific (CP) recruiters will be in Detroit next week to fill conductor positions based in North and South Dakota.

    CP is in the midst of responding to growing shipping needs of customers, which means actively ramping up resources across its network. As part of this approach, CP recruiters will be holding hiring sessions in Detroit talking with people who enjoy working outdoors, meet qualifications and want a rewarding railroad career.

    When: Monday, August 29, 2011 – session will run from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. (please note:follow-up meetings with candidates will take place throughout the week following the Monday session)

    Where: MGM Grand Detroit, 1777 Third Street

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Thanks, please fwd to the POTUS

    Interesting move in BTU, hard to fathom the hit there, sure wasnt prices …takeover bif thoughts, nah, too much for that too …just an irrational market.

  77. 77
    choices Says:

    #72-Justin-FWIW-Agree that it is extreme but as you know, that is a marketing clip-the numbers and arguments are prob accurate but nuanced-it needs to be dire to attract clients. Not to say that they wrong, they are in general correct. However, I get that stuff almost every day and I am relatively convinced that overall they depict a realistic picture but exclusively nuanced to the negative. The question, I guess, is what the hell to do about it-some days, it prob makes sense to crawl under the bed or continue searching for Wyoming’s cave-other days, it prob makes sense to not panic (thanks, Z) and try to search out opportunities before “The Rapture” is upon us. If you really want to get the flavor of Armageddon, google Peter Schiff.

    In the meantime, I try to find some indicators to obtain a balance. (Pls excuse length of reply but I guess it is a slow day).

  78. 78
    choices Says:

    #75-the thread I see in Cramer talking to CEO of CLR and some of the interviews from #73, e.g. BAS, is that there is a serious shortage of labor-ie, skilled (or trained) and motivated labor-maybe the pols could get off their collective A__es, stop campaigning for 2012 just for a few minutes and work together to put together a training and recruitment program-I’m sure the states, the O & G companies, and the workers would welcome such a step-nah, I guess that’s not going to happen.

  79. 79
    elduque Says:

    Did anybody find out when Ben speaks tomorrow.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Yesterday’s crude draw was all the more impressive as it came with a 4.8 mm barrel spr release. Next week and half and that program will have run its course

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Yesterday’s crude draw was all the more impressive as it came with a 4.8 mm barrel spr release. Next week and half and that program will have run its course

    Ben speaks in the morning, not sure exact time

  82. 82
    brodway Says:

    NOG hanging in real tough today. there seems to be a bid under 18. No significant volume in last 2 days.

  83. 83
    mimster90 Says:

    choices thanks for #73 was very interesting to listen to EXXI’s and BEXP’s chairmen

  84. 84
    choices Says:

    #83-you’re welcome, mim-I will try to listen this w/e to most of them.

  85. 85
    ratberto Says:

    OT – Pettis is never a bad read, for me.

    “Is the PBoC going to stop buying USG bonds?”

    http://mpettis.com/2011/08/foreign-capital-go-home/

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty. Comcast “lost” the appointment to repair the line to my office. I will try to get to another site tonight to post the friday post

  87. 87
    Justin Says:

    Choices – I’m in line with you. Thanks for the response.

  88. 88
    cargocult Says:

    OT- I really think you should consider buying a MAC instead of a pc.

  89. 89
    bathtime Says:

    OT: Talked to TKOI CFO today. They do face challenges from the tight credit markets. Both for customers getting loans or purchase approvals and from restrictions to their own working capital. Because the company has had poor balance sheets in the past, hard for them to get loans now.

    CEO had mentioned 5c EPS for 2011 on the earnings call, but CFO confirmed this was an error made by adding up the (significantly) rounded-up quarterly EPS numbers. Actual forecast total EPS for FY 2011 is 1c (1 million).

    Overall impression I got was that company is still a work in progress. I appreciated the CFO’s transparency/honesty. I think patience will be required as an investor.

  90. 90
    choices Says:

    Maybe Ben gets a break tomorrow with all eyes (at least in eastern US) on Irene-no one will care, at least on Friday. Irene is being touted as a huge, dangerous storm.

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