26
Feb
Wrap – Week Ended 2/25/11 (In Progress)
Holdings Watch - last week's closed options trades:
-
- CHK – Sold the (20) $36 strike March calls for $0.64, up 120%.
- CHK – Sold the (10 of 20) $34 strike March calls for $1.48, up 111%.
Housekeeping Watch:
- Note that ZLT and ZIM portfolio positions are updated on the ZEB Positions tab and that the month end performance letter for the month of February will go out on Tuesday (See Letter From Z tab at upper left on the site for updated charts on Tuesday). Please also note that options are risky and only a very small portion of our focus.
Nutbag Watch: Libya. Clock very much ticking for M.Q. and it's not likely that it will be the U.N. sanctions that remove him but instead the will of the people. Very ugly. Attacks on oil infrastructure are going to be increasingly likely and the regime has threatened Hussein style scorched well tactics.
Nutbag Watch: Iraq. Protests spread to Iraq late in the week. Separately, last night we saw an attack on a unit of Iraq's largest refinery (150,000 bopd throughput, or almost 1/3 of the country's entire currently operating refining capacity) that shut it down.
Articles of Interest This Past Week (or so):
- REXX 4Q results - (this one didn't get a lot of attention in the press but the stock has turned on a dime following a sell off on the quarterly press release) ... and I added shares.
- EOG 4QResults - Strong quarter and a reiteration of guidance .... and suddenly the Street wakes up to the fact that all is not lost with these guys after they cut production guidance last fall ... quiet the contrary and now they are talking Matrix Flow vs Fracture flow in the Niobrara.
- BEXP's Strong Quarter - 4Q Results - to get the full effect here you really need to be a subscriber to see the running commentary during the conference call. We continue to own it as one of our largest positions in the Zman Long Term Portfolio.
Take a look at Debkafile.
February 26th, 2011 at 10:15 amIraq's largest refinery blown up by Al Qaeda today.
http://www.debka.com/article/20710/
Result? Call options?
DJHurd
Thanks David. The impact of the Iraqi refinery on physical global volumes won't matter, unless you live there, but it will be another psychological notch for regional tensions. The Saudi protest deal might be a bigger deal for oil prices on Sunday night but I don't expect any kind of disruptions out of Saudi over them, just more $ being given to appease the unemployed masses.
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The E&P Growth Index and Gas Stock Index project is coming along as time allows. Here’s a first look at where I’m at with it. It’s going to be a work in progress for a little while but I’m finding some possible edge/value in having information that pertains directly to the groups of stocks we trade every day and the individual stocks within the indices.
February 26th, 2011 at 1:21 pmThe attached E&P Growth Index chart is made up of 52 E&P stocks that were suggested by the members of the group. If you have comments please let me let me know.
APA APC AREX ATPG AXAS BBG BEXP CEO CLR CNQ CRZO CXO CXPO DNR DVN EGY EOG EXXI FST GDP GMXR GST HK KOG MHR MMR NBL NFX NOG OAS OXY PBR PETD PWE PXD PXP REXX ROSE RRC SFY SGY SM SSN SU SWN TPLM TRGL USEG VNQ WLL XCO XEC
Chart http://img239.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=38974_EPGrowthIndex_122_515lo.jpg
Chart key
1. Upper pane is On Balance Volume( OBV)
2. Blue horizontal rectangles on the right edge = the volume at each price.
3. Red vertical lines = % of stocks >5 day moving average => 90%
4. Green vertical bars = % of stocks < 5 day moving average = <20%
5. Red horizontal bars = swing highs.
Note these studies are preliminary and are only shown to suggest how they may useful in this current bull phase. As I have time to refine and test the parameters in bull/bear and less directional markets I’m sure there will be adjustments.
I noticed that….
1. Breakouts led by higher OBV tend to be more successful.
2.When the % of stocks > 5 Day Moving Average > 90% the index tends to flatten or dip to support.
3.When the % of stocks < 5 Day Moving Average =< 20% the index tends to find support. My favorite.
I’ll have the Gas Stock Index out next. I currently have 12 stocks in this group. Suggestions for additions are welcome. I’m trying to capture the difference in gas stocks relative to general E&P names, if one exists. So far the evidence shows it does.
CHK CRK ECA GDP GMXR HK MCF PVA QEP RRC SWN UPL
Comments or suggestions are welcome.
Gas Stock Index Notes…Low volume approach to resistance . OBV falling, Advancing Volume 53 million vs 80 million at previous swing high. 5SMA % > 90% currently 83%. Upside possible but limited in the short term unless volume expands significantly.
http://img103.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=49509_GasStockIndex_122_1130lo.jpg
Chart key
1. Upper pane is On Balance Volume( OBV) /Currently Falling
2. Blue horizontal rectangles on the right edge = the volume at each price. Still In congestion. Long term resistance at 33(Not shown on chart)
3. Red vertical lines = % of stocks >5 day moving average => 90% Currently 83% One more day of upside would do it.
4. Green vertical bars = % of stocks < 5 day moving average = <20%
5. Red horizontal bars = swing highs. Approaching Resistance/Previous High on lower volume and fewer stocks above 5SMA At 33
I noticed that….
February 26th, 2011 at 2:54 pm1. Breakouts led by higher OBV tend to be more successful.
2.When the % of stocks > 5 Day Moving Average > 90% the index tends to flatten or dip to support.
3.When the % of stocks < 5 Day Moving Average =< 20% the index tends to find support. My favorite.
http://img103.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=49509_GasStockIndex_122_1130lo.jpg
E&P Growth Index
February 26th, 2011 at 3:12 pmBullish Percent Index
http://img265.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=52181_EPGrowthIndexBP_122_171lo.jpg
Zorg;
February 26th, 2011 at 9:29 pmRe: 5, I have some trouble reading the bullish percentage. If at the top, it is ready for a fall, as I remember. Is that right? Indeed, it is already drooping.
Thanks
re 6
dij
Take the BPI chart as an example only at this point. The box and reversal settings may not be the correct ones. Zorg doesn't use PNF at all and barely knows the basics. Perhaps JB or someone else may be able to suggest how to set it up properly or say whether it has any value at all for this group of stocks.
Best, Zorg
February 26th, 2011 at 11:43 pmAs oil prices rise, the global transition back to coal accelerates.
February 26th, 2011 at 11:56 pmToday's prices for a million BTU | brent oil: $19.33 | wti oil: $16.94 | natgas: $3.80 | capp coal: $3.10 | prb coal $0.80
2010 USA energy consumption rebounds, YTD vs 2009, | Oil +1.421% | NatGas +4.543% | Coal +6.049% |
Gregor McDonald
Zorg, Thanks for #7.
February 27th, 2011 at 7:53 amFront page New York Times article today on fracking – obviously they are watching the Marcellus closely due to regional interest. You can't miss it at http://www.nytimes.com – right in the middle of the page at the moment. The caption to the picture on the site is a little off — that isn't Philadelphia in the picture… some of the reader comments to the article are interesting. Clearly these folks saw Gasland. www.nytimes.com
February 27th, 2011 at 8:51 amAll that said i think there is some traction for the clean frac group – particularly in the Marcellus if for no other reason that the large population centers nearby and the amount of public scrutiny that is going to be leveled against the oil and gas industry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/business/27kroll.html?pagewanted=3&_r=1&hp
February 27th, 2011 at 11:13 amMore credit rating agencies-the money is good-not sure about the quality of the product: Meredith Whitney, Kroll, etc-cannot be any worse than the two enablers, S & P, Moody's. Fitch seemed to be just slightly a cut above.
Any additions/deletions to the the Bakken and Haynesville names?
February 27th, 2011 at 12:26 pm/Bakken/
BEXP CLR COG CXO EOG HES KOG NFX PVA SM THE WLL
/Haynesville/
APC CHK COG CRK CWEI DVN EAC EOG FST GDP GMXR HK PQ PVA SD SM XCO
Zork..ECA in the Haynesville
February 27th, 2011 at 4:01 pmInteresting stuff Zorg
February 27th, 2011 at 5:24 pmFull Bakken list:
AXAS, BEXP, BSCI CLR CRED CXO EOG GEOI ICPAX
KOG NFX NOG OAS ROSE SDCJF SM SSN TPLM VYOG WLL
I'd probably remove AXAS BSCI CRED ICPAX SDCJF SSN from that.
Eagle Ford List
APC CHK CXPO EOG GDP HK MHR NFX PXD PXP SFY ROSE SM and then a whole host of little dudes who are just getting started like GST, LEI, GEOI
February 27th, 2011 at 5:28 pmCrude up $1.15 at $99 in Sunday night trading.
February 27th, 2011 at 6:07 pmListening to the BEXP Q&A now, will have annotated comments in the Monday post, good stuff so far and the stock liked it post call on Friday. Will be an interesting year as they are looking at a number of horizons above the Three Forks and Bakken now …. so good acreage gets better.
February 27th, 2011 at 6:25 pm14
February 27th, 2011 at 6:30 pmJust so I'm clear the Bakken list would be…BEXP CLR CXO EOG GEOI KOG NFX NOG OAS ROSE SM TPLM VYOG WLL ?
re 18 – maybe drop TPLM for now too. They are just getting started, it just depends on how inclusive you want to be. NOG, VYOG and TPLM are all non-operated now. TPLM plans to add acreage fast and operate in the future so maybe you keep them in, just depends on what you are trying to represent. CRED has a few acres, is thin, and moves like crazy on single well results so I'd say leave them out. GMXR has quite a few acres now, just not drilling until late this year.
February 27th, 2011 at 6:32 pm19
Thanks Z
February 27th, 2011 at 9:06 pmCL@99.62 with 10,700 contracts. Did some other shoe drop?
February 27th, 2011 at 9:07 pmre 21 – see 1 above. First protests in Saudi, now Oman as well.
February 27th, 2011 at 9:22 pmThis is not exactly insightful, but I noticed that the BAKKEN players are going to open green.
February 27th, 2011 at 10:22 pmDJHurd
http://www.shtfplan.com/
February 27th, 2011 at 10:26 pmweb site designed to help one sleep at night-e. g. gold confiscation (Feb 18), faber (22 Feb), Celente (25 Feb)-heh-I guess the gloom talk will become the fodder if not already of talk shows, blogs, etc-note to self: need to keep a steady hand and head, plan, and don't run off half cocked.
Oscar for documentary goes to "Inside Job" about Wall Street… at least it wasn't GasLand.
February 27th, 2011 at 10:27 pmre 15 – w/ over 1.5MM acres under lease, you get all comers in the EFS
February 27th, 2011 at 10:50 pmIn NZ for another week. Loving it. I should stay away more; last week was very OK even with the early week swan dive. Someday energy stocks will correct 'cause they got too high, but new highs argue that it is not now.
February 27th, 2011 at 11:06 pmCRED's new Letter to Shareholders has nothing new, does distinguish itself with 4-5 typos (or at least that's what I found on their website). That about fits with their shareholder relations program as I now understand it. Posting on Seeking Alpha on CRED is uninformed imho.
Cheerio.
#18….Zorg appreciate the great chart work…CXO is selling their Bakken acreage and will probably close transaction in March. They will be a pure Permian Basin play after the close… Is there any way to refresh your charts after they are posted? Thanks again.
February 28th, 2011 at 12:29 am28
February 28th, 2011 at 8:36 amWest, Thanks for the kinds words.
The charts I post are snap shots that I upload to the web pages you're accessing. They cannot be refreshed but I'm happy to post updated charts on request as time allows during the day.I get a lot out of this site and I I'd like to continue to give some back where I can.
The only way I know to have the ability to construct the type of real time Volume Profile charts that I post would be to subscribe to Investor/RT Pro and have access to data feeds that are accurate with actual real-time (not snapshot data) down to the tick.
There are some less expensive software and data feed options that might work for you . The trade off would be less precision and more workload.