13
Feb

Wrap – Week Ended 2/11/11

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Comments will be included in the Monday post.

16 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 2/11/11”

  1. 1
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Barron's 1. Article pro DVN. 2.Charles Maxwell crude $300/bl by 2020

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    On Nat Gas
    http://gregor.us/ng/vexed-by-natural-gas/

  3. 3
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Updating and and making some changes to the charts…some of the charts are temporarily removed for updating, some the of P&F charts also got deleted, I will be adding back fresh charts and adding some new names…   

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks for all the chart work JB!

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Samson has finally secured frac dates for its next two Bakken wells (the much delayed Rodney (frac on 3/14) and Earl (3/28)). Look for results from these to be released in April. Yes, delayed again from Feb but good to finally get something closer to set in stone on these. I'll have some more important comments here in tomorrow's post. 

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market Strategist…. for the last time
    (He will be missed)
     
     
    Goodnight and Goodbye.
     
    Tonight's note is bittersweet for me. After 6 years of authoring "Bedtime with BTIG," this is my final missive. I have accepted a new and different opportunity with a premier global asset manager. Professionally and personally, it is the right time for me to make this move. I would like to take this opportunity to thank my BTIG family of colleagues, clients and friends for my wonderful experiences over the past 8 years. In particular, I extend my heartfelt gratitude to Steven Starker and Scott Kovalik for their support, guidance and friendship to me. Through their leadership and example, they have fostered a culture of client service built upon the belief that if you take care of your clients, the business will take care of itself. They did not disappoint and the firm's success over the past 8 years has handily exceeded my own high and hopeful expectations. I have always been, and will remain, proud to be associated with BTIG.
     
    .
     
    I extend a special thank you to our clients. One of the key reasons for Bedtime with BTIG's success is management's belief that clients are best served with an expression of honest, unvarnished views. When it comes to our clients, you are some of the smartest around. Whether we agreed or disagreed over these past 6 years, I know that I always benefited from the discourse. You have made me better at what I do. Because of your diligence, I dare not make a statement that is not well vetted. I thank you. As previously noted, this is my last Bedtime but I will be available until February 23rd as BTIG transitions my role. Please do not hesitate to contact me if you need anything.
     
    .
     
    Parting Views on 2011.
     
    The great thing about writing "Bedtime with BTIG" 5 nights a week is that it allows you to change your views on a dime, as quickly as the markets change. Since this is my final note, I will share my parting views on 2011. I regret that I will not be able to share my view when it changes, as it most certainly will at some point. The economic recovery should continue to gain momentum. Main Street will finally begin to catch up with the recovery that financial markets have been discounting. As such, we expect stocks to have a better than average year as the S&P 500 will likely post a record level of earnings. Investors may be disappointed because strong gains in the economy have already been partially discounted in Equity returns. We expect 2011 to be as close to a "normal" environment as markets have experienced in some time. The importance of Stock-picking will reemerge as macro themes fade to the background amidst the economic recovery. Investors should favor Developed Markets over Emerging Markets, because for the first time in years Developed Markets will finally have a positive story to tell. Emerging Markets will grapple with inflationary pressures. We still believe there are large pockets of institutional investors that are underweight Equities, and thus, will probably go through a re-risking process over the next 1-2 years. We expect this trend to mute the downside of corrective moves when they commence. We expect interest rates to gradually rise as the economy recovers, inflation will remain tame and we do not expect a QE3. We still expect 2011 to be a corrective year in the long-term bull market in Commodities.
     
    .
     
    As someone who was bearish and worried in 2007, we love the long term outlook going forward. A generational washout was necessary, and although the problems are far from solved, at least people are finally aware of them and steps are being taken to correct some of them. Regrettably, the largest risk in 2011 may very well be the Fed Chairman's adamant stance on keeping an excessively easy monetary policy. Encouraging risk taking at 1300 on the S&P 500 is much different and potentially dangerous than doing so at 666. You want investors to invest on the merits of an investment, not the Fed Chairman's pledge to keep policy too easy for too long. As noted, we do not expect a QE3, but if it happens, we will not be surprised if the market's reaction is to sell rather than buy. An accommodative monetary policy is usually a positive, but if policy is not rooted in reality, investors will not want to play the game.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 6 = bummer

  8. 8
    choices Says:

    "I’ll make an easy prediction: exports of LNG volumes from both Sabine Pass in Louisiana, and from Kitimat, British Columbia will be well underway before the United States–either through public policy or the free market–has transitioned any meaningful new demand to natural gas."
     
    Last line of article posted by Zorg @#2.  This IS an easy prediction and it IS mind-boggling.
     

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    No fracking in the Niobrara?
     
    http://seekingalpha.com/author/keith-schaefer/stocktalk/1439001?source=kizur

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Zorg – Thanks. Not sure what his point is since the Niobrara is largely a Colorado, Wyoming play as far as oil is concerned The DJ in Nebraska is mostly gassy and its not where our names are really leasing anyway so it wouldn't matter to anyone that I know of if they never drill a Nebraska Niobrara oil well. 

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Strong momentum energy names with breakout potential.
    XEC CXO FXEN AREX WTI

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    10  Thanks. I'll go back to sleep now.  🙂

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Thanks for 11.

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    zorg — ditto.  Thank you for #11!

  15. 15
    skimo Says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-12/seahawk-drilling-files-for-bankruptcy-to-sell-assets-update1-.html?cmpid=yhoo
    Salazar, no doubt, claims another victory.

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HERO is buying Seahawk's assets… so Salazar will probably see his moves as a good thing:  "A weaker player is collapsing into the arms of its competitor… yay for me!" 
     
    Headlines saying HERO will cold-stack 13 of Seahawks 20 rigs.  Yep… way to go, Kenny.

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