05
Feb

Wrap – Week Ended 2/4/11

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In progress ....

The Week Ahead:

E&P earnings and reserve reports, and the Credit Suisse energy conference. 

Holdings Watch (closed trades only): 

  • WLL – Sold the last 2 WLL $120 Feb Calls for $8, up 244%.
  • HAL – Sold 5 of 10 remaining HAL FEB $44 Calls for $2.10, up 1,067% with the stock at $45.25.
  • SSN – Sold 1/2 of the SSN shares out of the new ZLT-C portfolio at $2.82, up 139% since the buy in on Dec 29th. The stock had grown to too much of these two ESA portfolios for my comfort and needed to be trimmed back.
  • HAL – Sold the last 5 Feb $44 Calls for $3.20, up 1,782% with the stock at $46.84. I continue to hold the common in the ZLT but am out on all calls now.

 

All positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page  ---- not yet, will be by Saturday evening. 

Performance Watch: (through the end of January)

 

  • ZLT A (Zman Long Term portfolio) – Taxable Account. 
    • 2011: 
      • ZLT A +39%
      • S&P500 + 2.3%
      • XLE + 7%
    • Since Inception (6/30/2008)

      • ZLT A +102%
      • S&P +0.5%
      • XLE  -17%
  • ZLT B (Zman Long Term portfolio) – Tax Deferred
    • 2011: 
      • ZLT B +33%
      • S&P500 +2.3%
      • XLE +7%
    • Since Inception (9/1/08)

      • ZLT A +701%
      • S&P +0.5%
      • XLE  -17%

 

Weekend Mailbag Watch:

TBA

- $15 oil question. 

12 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 2/4/11”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Uh oh

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/egypt-halts-gas-pipeline-after-fire-report-2011-02-05

  2. 2
    crysball Says:

    Z, since  the spread  between Nymex  WTI  and  Brent  crude  has become  so  significant   and   may  affect   behaviors [at least in the short term when the gap  is of  such a large magnitude]     would  it  be of value  to  put  both  Nymex  WTI  & Brent Crude  closing spot  in the weeken data?

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Crys – probably, I'll also add a divergence chart of the two in the Monday post. 

  4. 4
    crysball Says:

    Keystone  Pipeline  @  Risk
    An  interesting  article  in the weekend WSJ:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704709304576124543804270386.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
    It  the  'Boot  on the Neck crew'  manages  to  kill it  with  'Safety concerns' The Canadians  have the perfect  answer …….pipe  the oli  to W. Coast of BC  and  sell it to the Chinese.
    In one fell swoop  we  will manage  to increase  our  dependence  upon  IMPORTED OIL FROM UNFRIENDLY  NATIONS,  ……STIFF  our  Neighbors, and  give  China  another   1.1 million barrels/day. 
    As I recall there was  going  to be a Keystone Bracnch from the Bakken which would  improve  Williston Basin takeawvay………that  would  also  go down the tubes if the USA  blocks the Keysone.

  5. 5
    VTZ Says:

    You're right about the bakken branch… I think the likelihood of the Kitimat terminal going forward is increasing all the time..

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 4,5 – EOG is counting on it being online with exporting LNG from gas from Horn River in the early teens. See page 3 of their latest presentation. Natural gas that will be indexed to the price of oil. They did this in Trinidad in the late 90s as well, indexing gas to the price of bunker fuel. 

  7. 7
    Steve Says:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110205/wl_mideast_afp/egyptpoliticsunrestgasisrael_20110205123242
     
    Sounds like it's being portrayed, at least for now, as an act of terrorism. 

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Thanks Steve

  9. 9
    Steve Says:

    You bet.  I dont know what impact this will have on oil prices as all this Egypt news hasn't moved the needle at all on WTI.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Probably a small bump on Monday as it goes to credibility of the fears that supplies, not just gas supplies are impacted. While I don't expect the Suez canal to be shuttered for any length of time there is a large diameter pipeline (the 200 mile long Sumed line) that flows to the Med. That may prove a tempting target if things don't settle down soon.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Positions on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page updated. 

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Packman – Good luck tonight!

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