05
Feb
Wrap – Week Ended 2/4/11
In progress ....
The Week Ahead:
E&P earnings and reserve reports, and the Credit Suisse energy conference.
Holdings Watch (closed trades only):
- WLL – Sold the last 2 WLL $120 Feb Calls for $8, up 244%.
- HAL – Sold 5 of 10 remaining HAL FEB $44 Calls for $2.10, up 1,067% with the stock at $45.25.
- SSN – Sold 1/2 of the SSN shares out of the new ZLT-C portfolio at $2.82, up 139% since the buy in on Dec 29th. The stock had grown to too much of these two ESA portfolios for my comfort and needed to be trimmed back.
- HAL – Sold the last 5 Feb $44 Calls for $3.20, up 1,782% with the stock at $46.84. I continue to hold the common in the ZLT but am out on all calls now.
All positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page ---- not yet, will be by Saturday evening.
Performance Watch: (through the end of January)
- ZLT A (Zman Long Term portfolio) – Taxable Account.
- 2011:
- ZLT A +39%
- S&P500 + 2.3%
- XLE + 7%
- Since Inception (6/30/2008)
- ZLT A +102%
- S&P +0.5%
- XLE -17%
- 2011:
- ZLT B (Zman Long Term portfolio) – Tax Deferred
-
- 2011:
- ZLT B +33%
- S&P500 +2.3%
- XLE +7%
- Since Inception (9/1/08)
- ZLT A +701%
- S&P +0.5%
- XLE -17%
- 2011:
Weekend Mailbag Watch:
TBA
- $15 oil question.
Uh oh
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/egypt-halts-gas-pipeline-after-fire-report-2011-02-05
February 5th, 2011 at 10:14 amZ, since the spread between Nymex WTI and Brent crude has become so significant and may affect behaviors [at least in the short term when the gap is of such a large magnitude] would it be of value to put both Nymex WTI & Brent Crude closing spot in the weeken data?
February 5th, 2011 at 11:02 amCrys – probably, I'll also add a divergence chart of the two in the Monday post.
February 5th, 2011 at 11:08 amKeystone Pipeline @ Risk
February 5th, 2011 at 5:45 pmAn interesting article in the weekend WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704709304576124543804270386.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
It the 'Boot on the Neck crew' manages to kill it with 'Safety concerns' The Canadians have the perfect answer …….pipe the oli to W. Coast of BC and sell it to the Chinese.
In one fell swoop we will manage to increase our dependence upon IMPORTED OIL FROM UNFRIENDLY NATIONS, ……STIFF our Neighbors, and give China another 1.1 million barrels/day.
As I recall there was going to be a Keystone Bracnch from the Bakken which would improve Williston Basin takeawvay………that would also go down the tubes if the USA blocks the Keysone.
You're right about the bakken branch… I think the likelihood of the Kitimat terminal going forward is increasing all the time..
February 5th, 2011 at 6:53 pmre 4,5 – EOG is counting on it being online with exporting LNG from gas from Horn River in the early teens. See page 3 of their latest presentation. Natural gas that will be indexed to the price of oil. They did this in Trinidad in the late 90s as well, indexing gas to the price of bunker fuel.
February 5th, 2011 at 8:11 pmhttp://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110205/wl_mideast_afp/egyptpoliticsunrestgasisrael_20110205123242
February 5th, 2011 at 8:22 pmSounds like it's being portrayed, at least for now, as an act of terrorism.
Thanks Steve
February 5th, 2011 at 8:46 pmYou bet. I dont know what impact this will have on oil prices as all this Egypt news hasn't moved the needle at all on WTI.
February 5th, 2011 at 8:49 pmProbably a small bump on Monday as it goes to credibility of the fears that supplies, not just gas supplies are impacted. While I don't expect the Suez canal to be shuttered for any length of time there is a large diameter pipeline (the 200 mile long Sumed line) that flows to the Med. That may prove a tempting target if things don't settle down soon.
February 5th, 2011 at 8:56 pmPositions on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page updated.
February 6th, 2011 at 1:16 pmPackman – Good luck tonight!
February 6th, 2011 at 6:29 pm