23
Jul
Stress Test Friday
Market Sentiment Watch: What a difference a day made. Today we have global markets that are up but in limbo awaiting the results of European bank stress tests.
Busta Cap N Trade Watch: Reid abandons the Climate Bill. You know something is unpopular when you have a super majority and you still can't get your way. Or put another way, Senators may not know how to create jobs but they know how to save their own. Probably good news for coal-fired utilities and coal miners (though not for coal prices). Definitely good news for people who have jobs in the industry or who pay things like electric bills.
BP Spill Watch:
- BP gets "indefinite authorization to keep well capped".
- Cap to remain on if they have to pull away for the storm.
- BP is evacuating the Macondo site which lies almost directly in the path of Tropical Storm Bonnie.
- Hurry Up and Wait. The Coast Guard's Thad Allen has given BP permission to prepare for the "static kill" procedure but has not given permission to actually start it. Wow. Must still be looking for Form SJ9xy/4305 in which you would cross out "Pizza Over" and insert "Static Kill". Typical.
- Documents show switch that would have triggered the BOP in the event of an emergency was broken, another vote in favor of the "It wasn't CAM's fault" camp.
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Natural Gas Storage Review
- Stuff We Care About Today
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio)
- $7,500
- 70% Cash
- Positions for the quick view are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
- Yesterday’s Trades: None
ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $2,100
- 7% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades:
-
BP – Sold the $37.50 calls for $1.81, up 29%. Will let the ZCAT continue to play in this name.
-
LINE – Added (50) LINE August $31 Calls for $0.24 with the stock at 29.90 (tried to split the spread and failed). LINE announced the highest IP to date in the Texas Panhandle portion of the Granite Wash play at 60 MMcfepd, over 50% of that being liquids. See site for further details on LINE's leverage to the play as it ranks against the other participants. My sense is that this kind of performance not only makes LINE more interesting amongst the E&P style yield plays but may afford the opportunity at some point down the road to increase their distribution. It should certainly help with their distribution coverage ratio.
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Commodity Watch
Crude oil jumped $2.74 to close at $79.30 yesterday on the back of a strong equity market and a 1% relapse in the dollar. This morning crude is trading off slightly.
Natural gas rallied $0.13 to close at $4.64 yesterday after the EIA reported an inline storage injection (see below) and the tropical wave north of Cuba intensified. This morning gas is trading off slightly.
- Tropics Watch: Hello Bonnie. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed north of Cuba last night and is on track for the Gulf and then the Texas / Louisiana Gulf Coast.
Natural Gas Storage Review
ZComments: In line number yielded another week of YoY deficit building and another decline in the surplus to the five year average. We will see this again next week. Nothing to write home about but supportive of natural gas north of $4.
Stuff We Care About Today
Earnings Watch:
NFX Reported Solid Quarter; Bottom Line Miss Should Get Very Little Play... They spilled most of the operational beans with the Wednesday night press release, so just looking for further play detail on the call.
The 2Q Numbers:
- Production of 73 Bcfe (pre released, top end of old guidance)
- LOE of 0.68 / Mcfe (recurring) was at the low end of expectations of $0.67 to $0.72 / Mcfe and a sharp improvement from last quarter's $0.91 / Mcfe rate.
- EPS of $1.06 vs $1.08 expected (not sure the variance here, could be an assumed DD&A unit (per Mcfe) reduction due to the higher volumes that did not occur).
- CFPS of $2.85 vs $2.82 expected
Highlights - Just a couple of extras since they spilled the beans with the Wednesday night release.
- Cost Guidance:
- Despite the higher than expected LOE of this quarter, NFX has reduced the range for the full year from a range of $0.59 to $0.62 to a range of $0.55 to $0.58 / Mcfe.
- G&A large offsets the expected decline in LOE
- All other cash costs (including production taxes) are relatively unchanged.
- Despite the higher than expected LOE of this quarter, NFX has reduced the range for the full year from a range of $0.59 to $0.62 to a range of $0.55 to $0.58 / Mcfe.
- Thinking on this would be not a lot change to the current CFPS estimates.
Nutshell: Good quarter, thunder stolen on Wednesday night? Maybe, but probably not. They should have more to say about the first two Southern Alberta Basin (Montana Bakken, Lodgepole) wells (cores, shows while drilling?) on the call. Also, probably going to mention their 20% interest in LINE's 60 MMcfepd gross well announced yesterday. This well was to the southwest of where they had been drilling and could be a new sweet spot. On the EFS, sounds like we'll know more in a couple of weeks. Lastly, expect them to get questions regarding their recent language of "low end of the range" from early July, juxtaposed with their "maintaining the range" language from the Wednesday operational release. Not that I expect them to wordsmith the releases like Bernanke but then again, maybe I'm onto something after seeing the big (but short lateral) Bakken well results from the ops release. Stock is still cheap at 4.4x 2010 and 2011 current CFPS estimates.
Conference Call: Today 9:30 am EST
SLB Reported In LIne 2Q Results
The 2Q Numbers
- Revenue of $5.94 B vs $5.941 B expected
- Service revenue up 7% seq, and 10% YoY
- EPS of $0.68 vs $0.68 expected and $0.68 in 2Q09
Highlights
- “Sequential revenue increases were recorded in all Areas as were sequential margin improvements led by strong performances in North America and Latin America."
- US onshore strength offset Canadian breakup seasonal effect and the beginning of the Gomex moratorium.
- Strength as predicted in international segment
- "Looking forward to the remainder of the year, we see a continued slow build of activity in the second half in most parts of the world. In particular, US Land, Brazil, North Sea and Russia will be GeoMarkets of continued strength. Meanwhile, we see continued growth across most of the Middle East & Asia GeoMarkets. This will be partially offset by reductions in IPM activity in Mexico in both Chicontepec and Burgos."
- Buyback continues.
Nutshell: Hmm, early morning market not liking the in line nature of the results. Look for call comments on the International side, including expectations for Iraq which gets closer by the minute, to guide the name today.
Conference Call: Today, 9 am EST.
Other Stuff
- SSN announces spudding of next Bakken well. Not news but they are Australian so they have to tell you if they take a pit stop, let alone if they spud a well. Still waiting on the acreage transaction.
- MUR to exit refining business. Worth watching:
- Conference call: 9 am EST.
- What MUR E&P Only Would Look Like:
- Production approaching 200,000 BOEpd,
- Production 69% oil,
- 15% US, 55% SE Asia (Malaysia), 21% Canada, rest off Surinama and Congo
- Production target by 2015 ~ 260 to 270,000 BOEpd; target of 400,000 BOEpd by 2020 (so plan to double up in 10 years)
- Reserves: 420-- MMBOE
- US Stuff: Deepwater Gomex; Eagle Ford Shale, > 200,000 net acres, 3 wells to date (2 squirrelly gas wells and one high rate oil well so far), acreage in both oil (65K acres) and gas (88K acres dry gas) and condensate (48 K acres) windows.
- Canadian Stuff: Montney shale (126,000 acres), see nearly 10x growth now through 2015, costs falling. Seal Lake EOR project.
- Exploration and Oil focused: 2010's exploration program targets net unrisked reserves of 1 billion BOE
- Thought is that punting the refining side will unlock value and possibly make them a target.
- Just food for thought at this point.
- Production approaching 200,000 BOEpd,
- Conference call: 9 am EST.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- CLB - Barclays ups target from $81 to $87, maintains Outperform
- EXXI - Seymour Price (who?) starts with a Buy rating and $30 target.
no honorable mention for KWK ?
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:46 amScoop – What can I say, I'm lazy. Honestly, saw the mention last night and have not had a chance to get to it yet as we were out late with the folks on their 49th anniversary (way to go Mom and Dad!).
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:51 amContrats, to Mr & Mrs, Z Sr.
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:54 amWizard, 1520, Greenk, gtue** – please check your emails
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:55 amWho is Seymore Price??? A British firm, it appears. Other than that, no idea… like the $30 PT though.
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:57 amThanks scoop, 49 years and they still tried to pick up the check.
SLB in 5 minutes, not expecting earthshaking stuff and will only be on the call until the NFX one starts.
Futures stuck in slightly up mode. People wanted the stress test results out early last night … didn't happen. Could be pretty volatile when those hit.
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:58 amBOP – yeah, no kidding, normal I don't include recommendations from every bucket shop out there but it was EXXI and I was thinking of you. 😉 Oh yeah, and I still have a half position. Wondering if in October / November we see the offshores all turn higher as news trickles out regarding changes resulting from Moratorium 2.0 and the liability front? Thoughts?
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:00 amTAT — will do a stock 2ndary sometime before the end of this year. Only question I have is do they have anything to do/announce to get the stock up a tad before doing another raise? Don't know. Will try to find out.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:01 amBOP – should have spud a large exploratory test (or soon) near the border with Iraq.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:04 amAt some point, people will remember that EXXI is 60% oily production. But struggling to come up with any near-term catalyst. Other than oily production and mounds of free cash flow. An accretive asset purchase would be nice.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:04 amSLB Notes
– slowdown in Mexico going to cause a charge (didn't say size) in Q3
– Jat – when you get a chance, do you think there is any chance they punt Western Geco? I know they bought it a couple of years back but it's a drag every quarter.
…
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:07 amTAT — yeah. Well 4175 in the southeast of Turkey. They think it could be a huge OIL find. Apparently, we are about 60 days from TD (is that on the catalyst list yet?). Also, they think the Thrace Basin will be HUGE. But it's taken a bit of time to get the pressure pumping equipment in country. Those camel trains just refuse to walk any faster!
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:14 amcan someone tell me why sd is opening down 18 c roughly 3 %
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:15 amSandisk earnings?
Cap & trade?
Amazon?
Market? chk and hk holding in there
TAT – is on there for a late July operations update, but not the well on block 4175, I have that as 3Q in my notes.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:16 amBill – I think you hit with the sandisk results.
BOP – if you look at my old Addax stuff on the reports tab, I understand this TAT well is testing that kind of potential (some of those were 30,000 bopd wells).
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:17 amTED keeps dropping a little now at 34 and Baltic keeps climbing a little up about a 100 in the last 4 days to 1826. Not really doing anything, just stabalizing.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:18 am#13 on SD: Reorg shares (4.777 SD for ARD) hit custodian accounts last night. Also, they are not covered by See..More..Price.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:20 am#4 – saw email – replied – thx
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:20 amz — no doubt there is a lot of energy potential in Turkey. They have the rocks for it. Infrastructure a bit of a problem… but that will get built out over time, of course. Just have to be patient with this one. Like YEARS-type of patient. But could (should?) be worth it.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:22 am17 >Also, they are not covered by See
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:24 amwhats that mean?
seymour price = see more price
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:24 amSLB : working on a technology alternative to using "brute strength" -lots of horse power- in fracing shale. Sounded like new process might be ready for 2H11 (my guess from t;heir language). This seems imp't to the shale co.s.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:25 amSLB pretty cagey in the Q&A, Andrew in low energy mode today.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:25 amBOP, at what point should we worry that CIGX isn't executing their plan? I was always taught that you bring products on line in accordance with a time plan so that revenues ramp up accordingly.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:25 amThe worst part of having CNBC on in the background, all day long, is the commercials. I just cringe, when i hear the "MagicJack!!" one. Over and over again.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:27 amTED still floating a bit lower (tighter, good)… not in any apparent hurry to get back to 25 or so, tho.
Credit up with stocks. People just LUV corporate bonds (and MLPs, it seems).
IG -1 1/8 bps to +107.75 spread to treasuries
HY +5/32 pt to 97
RMD – yeah, heard that, sounds good, not sure what they mean as in how it would work … you could say the other names are doing the same thing in various ways as well.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:28 amRe 23, well, it’s not a high energy quarter. GoM/Canada pretty big penalty this Q, more than I thought after HAL/WFT, that’s why they broke out US land in the PR…
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:28 amoh yeah > seymour price = see more price
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:29 amstill dont get it, lol–time for coffee
About to switch to the NFX call.
BOP – you can gauge the health of the economy by the commercial quality on CNBC. When the WSJ is the high frequency rotation commercial, things are good. When pajama grams rule the day, things stink.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:30 amskimo — not worried one teensy percent of one iota. CIGX is not in charge of rolling out the product, inVentive is. Could honestly be "any day"… but every one involved is doing everything they can to "get it right." They expect some dirty tricks to come out of BigTobacco, so they want to be sure to have all the Ts crossed and i's dotted.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:31 amHope it's soon (as they were originally planning on a June 1st launch). But not worried one teensy bit.
BOP, thanks
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:31 amJat – hear ya, and Andrew is often a conservative, dry, speaker. Tone is pressuring my HAL and WFT positions early.
NFX call starting.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:32 amFutures gave up gains, far as I can tell, stress test results not yet out, could be just a bit of profit taking (or what the heck were we rallying on anyway?!) here.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:33 amLINE now at pre big GW well levels.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:34 amskimo — to be perfectly frank, i would love it if CIGX dropped like a rock today. I got a bunch of shares in the 1.50s, but not as many as we wanted. So, still a buyer here. Just fyi.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:35 amHeadTrader out with some comments of his own, on the SEC announcement yesterday…
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:39 amIt seemed a little odd last week when the Securities and Exchange Commission settled its lawsuit against Goldman Sachs within two hours of Senate passage of the Democrats' Dodd-Frank financial reform bill. After all, who could ask for a more perfect backdrop than a successful prosecution of the investment colossus of Wall Street and a prime mover in the economic crisis of 2008? But this one looks stranger still considering that the SEC action was announced on April 15 of this year, only a week before the legislation was brought before the Senate, thus neatly bookending debate on the proposal. And it gets even stranger. On the same April 15, President Obama's campaign organization, Organizing for America, purchased a Google ad directing people who Googled "Goldman Sachs SEC" to donate money at my.barackobama.com .
Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., the ranking Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, wonders about all this and more, and so has asked the SEC for documentation of commission officials' communication with the executive branch. The announcement of the Goldman settlement, Issa wrote, "less than two hours after the U.S. Senate passed controversial financial reform legislation raises questions about whether politics influenced the announcement." The SEC is prohibited from using its resources to influence the passage of legislation, but its chairman, Mary Schapiro, was already on record in support of the bill, having released a statement in late June praising its expansion of the commission's authority and for "improving the SEC's funding process."
Consider, too, that the SEC's settlement with Goldman is carefully phrased to avoid forcing the firm to admit the most damning fraud charges: "Goldman acknowledges that the marketing materials … contained incomplete information. In particular, it was a mistake" to sell particular products "without disclosing" the role of parties whose interests were adverse to the investors. "Goldman regrets that the marketing materials did not contain that disclosure." Such language obscures the firm's ethically challenged actions behind a fog of rationalization. That might explain why the fine was only $550 million, an amount equal to just two weeks of Goldman's profit, not the $1 billion or more expected by veteran journalists covering the market.
To hear SEC officials tell it, however, you might think Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein was placed in stocks on the White House lawn after a perp walk from Congress down Pennsylvania Avenue. To put this in perspective, recall that the SEC has been most often seen in recent years as a failure, most notably because it failed to detect or stop Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme. More recently, there was an inspector general's report detailing widespread porn-surfing among SEC employees. All of which suggests that SEC officials should stop bragging about the Goldman settlement and start answering Issa's questions.
Seeing headlines that US stocks are down on concerns about the European Bank Stress Test. This is where our little friend, TED, comes in. If the worry was real, TED would be telling us that. But he's not.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:42 amSo either stocks have it wrong, or financial writers are just flopping around in search of a Reason for the Red. No reason why stocks couldn't go green.
NFX Notes
Well hedged for gas in 2010 and 2011 (nothing new),
cutting back on NG projects vs liquids (also not new),
Monument Butte – turning a new oil well to sales every day
– almost all expected production hedged … this was covered in yesterday's post.
drilling faster, bigger wells (had a 350 bopd avg 30 day rate well the other day)
Bakken –
4000 boepd, going to 6,500 boepd by year end (also Thursday post)
3,800+ BOEpd (east of Nesson) from a 3,900 foot lateral … going to be some ?s on the Q&A
…
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:43 amNoooooooooooooooooooooooo… not the "MagicJack!!" commercial again!!! I'm going to go get more coffee.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:43 amNFX Notes:
Eagle Ford
– 5 rigs running, 2 wells drilled to date, about to TD a third. Frac next week.
Southern Alberta Basin
– will not discuss … oh come on guys. ROSE did it with only verticals and some cores.
…
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:46 amNFX Notes:
Granite Wash
Expect to test at least 10 horizons by year end (stack pays)
This is their highest return gas play at the moment
80 MMcfepd from GW
Woodford Shale
still growing 20% with the lower activity levels (only 4 rigs now due to low gas prices)
continue to get more efficient, lateral penetration rate improved by 20% ytd
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:49 amCIGX chart looks kinda positive to me.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:50 amNFX heading in Q&A
SSN up 5% on lighter than recent opening volumes. Reminder that Monday is July 26th. See language from their Goshen County press release:
"The closing of the transaction, which is tentatively scheduled for July 26th, is conditional on the satisfactory conclusion of the buyer’s due diligence."
So they are going down to the wire.
July 23rd, 2010 at 8:51 amNFX – not hearing a huge amount of new incremental, impactful data on the call.
Market waffling through the release of the Euro stress test results
Ram – please check your email.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:20 amNFX call was fairly boring
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:31 amBG39 – yeah, usually pretty good, sounds like a bit too early on some stuff so we are in one of those quarters between the peaks. Liked all the cost guidance last night though, solid.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:33 amBP firing off this morning, a bit odd with the storm headed their way
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:34 am… a bit odd that it will hit the Gulf but is not forecast to grow beyond TS status. That could be helping as they will be able to get back to work quicker with a weaker storm.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:38 amLINE rebounded during the NFX call but I really didn't hear anything on the Q&A that would account for it. BG, you were on that right, did you hear anything new and exciting on the Granite Wash?
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:40 amBill – please check your email.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:44 amOnly that NFX will have tested 10 horizons by year end, I dont think that is new info though. I got on about 15 minutes late, so if they mentioned the LINE news, I did not hear it.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:46 amYeah, the 10 horizons was mentioned awhile back and was in the Wednesday night release. Didn't hear them mention or an analyst mention it, will grab the transcript when available but I think it was not commented on.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:48 amZTRADE – ZIM – LINE
LINE – Added (10) August $30 Calls with the stock at $29.78 for $0.50. I continue to hold the (50) $31 strikes taken yesterday as well. Earnings next week.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:51 amCrysball – are you getting the ZBLASTs?
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:54 amThis must be the reason for the LINE buoyancy
Analyst Watch:
LINE – Raymond James raises target from $30 to $34
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:58 amThanks Bill
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:08 amGDP continues to behave abnormally strong???
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:09 amEld – got your message but no report last night, did you try to send? Could be the "storm surge" effect on highly shorted gassy names.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:10 amline
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:11 amfwiw
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?m=tm&bn=27800&tid=13850&mid=13850&tof=1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1
re 59 . Thanks, always good to have boots on the ground as per the 3rd comment.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:13 amHAL and WFT now mostly shrugging off the dour sounding call from SLB. Will go back and read the transcript there for substance but it didn't sound that bad, they just failed to beat.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:15 amz- it was an old report 6/15/10
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:20 amElD – ah, ok, thanks.
Market snoozing.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:48 amCNBC reporting Eurostress test was based on U.S. version but was stricter. Market trying to tick up on that.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:03 amAll German but 1 banks passed as do all Portuguese banks, top 4 French banks …
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:04 amHmmm… supposedly stricter but all the Porto banks pass. That's odd.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:04 amOh, a Greek bank failed. Well that's a bit better. Sheesh bored market. Have a boring call and get punished – see SLB.
Grabbing an early bite.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:08 amReading headlines that "two killed in gas well explosion in western Pennsylvania"…
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:11 amAnalyst Watch:
LINE – upped from $27 to $30 at RBC … way to step out on the risky edge guys.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:13 amHeadlines showing up under EOG ticker… but don't know if the "two wells" were EOG's or not.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:13 amHow do "two wells" explode?
Sorry… mixing up the headlines. Two people were killed in a "gas well explosion." Ugh. Sad stuff.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:15 amexplo well owned by huntley and huntley (private)
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:17 amHearing that TD Ameritrade customers have the refund in their account. I do not yet reflect that with Schwab. They're still riding my float I guess.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:19 amFeels like there has been a step up in onshore drilling accidents this year. Companies need to get safe and not just tout a safe past record. All of these plays are getting drilled faster and faster which makes one wonder if the pressure to move from spud to rig release is wearing on the crews. Stupid to kill people in the process.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:23 amGE boosting divd from 10c to 12c
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:27 amAnybody else in AGU? I bought some with POT and It's exploded up about 20-25% and I'm thinking of cashing out. In general the commodities have had a pretty good run on a relatively small bounce in the S&P.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:36 amZ – With oil approaching the topside of its trading range and the economic indicators not comign in as well as before is it time to trim exposure to oil and maybe leave NG positions on for weather related reasons?
gas well exploded
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:38 amhttp://www.philly.com/philly/business/homepage/20100723_2_killed_in_Western_Pa__gas_well_blast.html
sd tom ward to be on cnbc next weds 1230 pm…
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:41 amV – I would if I had non-catalyst related holdings in options, yes. In the ZLT I don't get worked up about that trading range. Am contemplating punting on ECA calls as that's just not working the way I thought it would this time around. Will wait out storm this weekend though. HAL and WFT I'm fine with for a bit longer, glad not in SLB. LINE has earnings and distribution announcement next week. Distribution almost assuredly flat with last one (so about a 8.5% yield). BP of course has a few catalysts ahead.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:42 amre 75… you'd think that would buoy the market but it's a summer Friday and non one seems to care much about much.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:43 am#76 – I used to follow AGU – haven't in a while. Good trade with POT… POT does earnings next thurs. I am in a holding pattern with my shares waiting to cover.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:46 amYou may want to listen to this mornings MOS conference call to get some color on the fertilizer's
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:53 amZ,
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:09 pmRe 54: am not receiving Z Blasts.
Crys – do you want to be, we had a bad email, but can use the one on the account if you like now.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:15 pmOK, why does the NG rig count keep climbing. I am missing something???? besides my money.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:16 pmSSN – I sold half of my position earlier this week at $1.30 and am sitting tight for the moment on the rest. That may not be the right call for everyone however and in my normal abundance of caution and helpfulness I present the following non-advisory type thoughts.
So pick your poison:
Deal on Monday: Should mean stock goes higher, as long as it is not option C for the acreage (the low end of the range which is now probably nearly priced in (maybe still runs to $1.50 on that deal)).
No deal on Monday and no word on the deal: Stock off and trickling lower (but not too much) until there is word about the deal. Actually, I don't think this can happen because they play by Aussie stock exchange rules and have to press release significant events. Of course, since this is in essence the lack of a significant event transpiring perhaps they have an out.
No deal on Monday but they announce new terms and an extension. Obviously direction the stock takes would be dependent on the new terms but that's probably more of a negative.
Deal canceled. Stock gets halved. Maybe not all at once but it would take a sharp drop on the open.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:24 pmRig Count Watch:
Oil up 11 rigs to 591 vs 257 a year ago
Natural gas up 3 to 982 vs 675
Horizontal: Off 1 to 858 vs 408 a year ago. Hard to fathom how this last number jives with the first two.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:26 pmNicky – can we get your final thoughts on the week, market looks like a computer pump job taking place.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:27 pmS&P touched 1,100
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:28 pmEmailed in from Nicky:
Well resistance is at 1105, 1108 – I remain bullish…..
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:37 pmHeadlines = "Dow Jones erases loss for the year"
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:06 pmRe: #73, SSN refund…no refund posted yet at TOS which is now owed by Ameritrade….
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:15 pmHeadTrader said "so what"… no one is trading.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:17 pmGuess it's just machines, throwing shares back and forth at each other.
Sounds about right, I'm busy learning how to graph the performance of my stock accounts. And contemplating a cold Hoptober.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:21 pmR # 73…Fido posted my SSN refund…wotta trade…
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:22 pmLiterally, the BEST Trader/Portfolio Manager i know is spending the summer, running around, doing all the errands he put off over the last 6 years. Keeps him from screen-watching, he says.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:24 pmAnd a sell-side friend just got back from a client call in NYC. One word summary of activity = "crickets"
Sums it up nicely, I would say.
not that anyone wud consider me a portfolio mgr. but I told one of my trading buddies I was thinking of going across the street, buyiing a new car, a bottle of gin and heading to Del Mar for the rest of the summer
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:25 pmJivey – good to know both 95 and 97.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:28 pm97 No olives?
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:30 pmjiveyjr — you should do it. You only go around once in life!
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:37 pmCan anyone explain what the SSN refund is about. I'm not sure what it refers to.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:47 pmCargo – it is for those who took shares in the rights offering (the secondary). They put in a set amount of $ and got 75% of there order. Now some of us are still waiting on the refund for the 25% we did not get allocated. It takes a bit of time for those to flow through so I'm not surprised or concerned but I do keep an eye on my money.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:51 pmThanks for the clarification. I got the shares and didn't quite follow the money. I hope Schwab will send me an email notice of the refund. Otherwise I'll look for it next week.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:57 pmA BTW on gold-the premiums on CEF and PHYS are both below 10%-CEF 7.4% and PHYS 9%-gold was knocked down this AM but seems to refuse to go below 1180-the premiums on CEF and PHYS alone are not usually something to trade from but they are one more indicator that gold refuses to fold and sentiment is not screaming off the charts-FWIW
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:58 pmTAT; GHS had on road this or last week, raise $100mm later this yr as acq. note to Malone was a 1 yr. note. Nat'l oil co came to TAT to work a deal on the frac equipment which is in transit now. 4175 well was Malone's old phone # indicating optimism about it: lots of oil.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:58 pmRe 105, thanks for the always interesting Malone color.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:59 pmWhy did you guys give up money? Wasn't there a bill me when the shares deposit option?
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:03 pmre 107. Not on my account. Subscribed to the deal and paid my selection price.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:05 pmz – how far are you by car from Springfield, Mo. Going to my son's wedding next weekend.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:25 pm2.5 hours at 70. I'll buy you a beer if you can make it. Congrats to your son.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:29 pmIf HK doesn't start to go up. You will have to buy.
More seriously. They say they are cutting NG prod. by 10% because of Bonny. How much of that 10% represents total production.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:31 pmTom Ward on CNBC and the stock falls 5%….Therefore, exited EXXI above $17..all into SD below $6
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:35 pmTotal production in the U.S. is around 60 Bcfgpd. Gulf is about 7 Bcfgpd, so that just over 1 percent.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:36 pmReef – nice.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:37 pmOK, now when you do your calculations for next if you figuring that the amount added was going to be 40, then tahtat would mean basically no change
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:38 pmby that I mean you still be at 40.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:39 pmNo change because that would be in the numbers a week from next Thursday. If they are curtailed for 2 to 3 days you can generally see it in the numbers. 10% though is pretty small.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:42 pmKOG — what a dependable little workhorse that one is. Buy below $3.30, sell higher. What a pleasant little stock.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:47 pmKOG daily looks really good here, trading now at 100 day SMA resistance, KOG breaks out of the consoldiation triange from here at about $3.50…
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:47 pmBOP and JB – no kidding and thanks. I think TAT offers the same from $3 to about $3.60.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:49 pmAnd AEZ from $6 to $7ish.
Storm looks likely to come ashore as a TS right around NOLA. Glad it's hot out as NG will generally get whacked hard on near misses like this one looks to be.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:51 pmEXXI chart really improving also…updated the daily, break out above the consoldidation triangle, support at the restest…
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:52 pmAEZ also testing the 100 day SMA, topside triangle trendline resistance at $7…
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:53 pmStill touting XEC here before the close with ops update as early as Monday.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:53 pmBeerthirty
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:56 pmRe: #124, West XEC looks great, updated the chart…bullish consolidation ascending triangle, really looks like XEC wants to break higher, to at least test the recent highs which would form an even bigger wedge…
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:57 pmThx, JB, voted.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:04 pmWest, thank you….
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:05 pmWizard, check your email, it's that time again.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:36 pmThe wrap will be out on Sunday.
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:51 pmZ, BOP, et al,
July 24th, 2010 at 10:53 amWill the current Obama plan to allow Bush era tax cuts to lapse [sharply increasing Dividend and Capaital Gains rates] trigger a Q4 selloff to realize gains in the 2010 tax year?……Does Obama's current plan have a chance of being overturned before year end?
Rrealizing this economomic /tax policy is not normal fare, but could certainly outweigh other catalysts as we apporach year end.