Tuesday Morning And Looks A Bit Better

Posted on by zman

Market Sentiment Watch:  AA reported a penny beat on higher than expected revenues and raised their demand estimate for aluminum which is helping to jump start equity futures this morning. Moody's cut Portugal's debt this morning but so far markets are yawning at that. BP is making good progress on the containment and deal fronts (see below). And otherwise, there is little in the way of energy land news today. I do think the bar is again set fairly low for Wednesday's oil inventory report and hot weather across a broad swath of the U.S. is supportive of a move higher in natural gas prices through next Thursday's report while the tropics take a break from the early start of the last couple of weeks (also good for BP as they recap the well and drill ahead on the relief wells). 

 

Deep Water Moratorium Watch:

  • New moratorium issued  after the close yesterday.
  • The new ban is not based on water depth but instead technology available on the rig. Which is interesting because:
    • all of the rigs from the prior ban will NOT be allowed to work under the new ban
    • if those rigs, which are more expensive and higher tech
    • Obama Administration has asked the appeals court to vacate their prior ruling saying that old ban is a moot point anyway. So I wonder why they care about it. Hmmmm. 
  • Runs through Nov 30, like the original one
  • Meanwhile, China continues to laugh at U.S. energy policy on all fronts and instead of talking, takes action. 

BP Spill Watch:

  • The new "cap" was seated in place last night with what looks like a nearly leak free connection.
  • At last check, the riser was not hooked to the top of the new cap but BP will be testing the cap over the next 24 to 48 hours to see if they can shut the well in.
  • BP also commented on the asset sale rumors saying a number of deals are in progress and talks are going well.
  • The globe trotting of BP executives last week also seems to be paying off as the crown prince of Abu Dhabi says he is mulling making an investment in BP now.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Crack Spread Update
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Max Pain
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
    • $6,900
    • 76% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:
      • None
  • ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
    • $8,600
    • 20% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:
      • BP - Sold the remaining half position in the July $31 Calls for $5.65, up 817%, with the stock at 36.60.
      • BP - Uprisked a piece of the profits, adding (20) BP July $38 calls for $0.60.
  • ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)
  • Yesterday's Trades:
  • EXXI Sold part of my position in EXXI, for 15.95, up 50%.
  • OAS - Added second tranche at $15.58.  Expecting favorable coverage this week (it's the underwriters so that should be no surprise) but also expecting positive operational update on their 2Q call. See reports tab on the site for my initial look at the name. Average cost now $15.26.

Commodity Watch Crude oil eased $1.14 in spotty, directionless, conviction-less and bored looking trading to close at $74.95 yesterday. This a day after oil rose on what reporters called a stronger world outlook for demand.  This morning crude is reversing yesterday's slide on IEA's strong 2011 demand outlook (see below).

  • Early Read on Oil Inventories:
    • Crude: DOWN 1.5 mm barrels - this should be fairly easy to achieve.
    • Gasoline: UP 0.7 mm barrels - I think it falls this week, last week was anomalous.
    • Distillates: UP 1.0 mm barrels
  • IEA Watch: IEA puts initial forecast for 2011 global crude demand at +1.6%, or up 1.3 mm bopd to 87.8 mm bopd. This is in line with EIA's forecast in terms of the year over year barrels increase.

Natural gas eased a penny to close at $4.39 yesterday. Ditto lazy, bored trading comments above. This morning gas is trading flat.

Crack Spread Update:

Key Thoughts:

Group Has No Momentum. Despite better margins and the potential for 2Q EPS beats, the group has no momentum.


Valuations: Cheap ... note that all group members aside from VLO have seen their 2010 EPS estimates fall since our last multiple update here just before the end of 1Q10. Why so long since we last updated estimates here? Show me some interest from the market and I'll update the table more frequently. Maybe this quarter marks a turning point but I'll wait and see. CVX noted last night that strong 2Q refining margins helped the quarter, saying downstream business was significantly better in 2Q than it was in 1Q.

Gasoline Demand: Running Strong ... still, I'll wait and see what names like VLO have to say about domestic gasoline demand and about the distillate export market.

Stuff We Care About Today

MAX Pain - Not that I'm a 100% subscriber to the theory but it does work from more often than not, unless the stock has traveled well away from the price, just before expiry. Some of our popular names ...

Other Stuff

  • Working up some NIobrara players data, should be ready for tomorrow's post.
  • CRED announces repurchase program - small time Bakken player.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:  Zip, nada, nothing. The calm before the 2Q storm

108 thoughts on “Tuesday Morning And Looks A Bit Better”

  1. SSN bidding over $1 this morning on some early but light volume.

    BP and the rest of the spill group names moving higher pre market as well.

  3. Tex – seems like the demand for it is certainly there. I have had 0 luck trading that name in the past. Maybe it’s more of a buy and hold candidate?

  4. Gold parabolic early morning… doesn’t mean much though… expect lots of volatility as the bears try to pound resistance at the MAs between 1220 1230 and the former resistance/support levels at 1224/1228.

  6. Nice pre open moves in crude (up at 76.60 now, up $1.65) and NG, up $0.06 and continuing to hold that $4.40 range from the other day when I said the downside was probably about done after the Street botched the estimate last week.

    Noting TPH looking for a beat at SWN, and high end of estimates for HK and BEXP. BEXP should have results on their Montana Bakken test on the call and I will be long again there in the ZCAT before numbers.

  7. Note in the Max Pain list above there are for once, a number of names below their max pain points that we hold calls in. I think both my SWN and HK calls will be toast but Max Pain says there is hope … we shall see.

  8. All of the BP ROV feeds on the same screen.

    http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=9034366&contentId=7063636

    Good way to stall your browser but also lets you know what’s going on when it works. Right now, the top of the cap, the LMRP cap, is flowing unabated to the Gulf (see Skandi 2 ROV feed). They should begin to choke it down later this morning for a pressure test and there are pressure gauges showing inlet and outlet pressure for your viewing pleasure.

  11. In that video in 10, they clearly show what’s in the BOP stack as two pieces of side by side drill pipe. Matt Simmons had said it was casing and that provided evidence of a downhole explosion so large it negated any chance of controlling the well. Not so.

    Also, a clarification, what they took off was the LMRP cap, the new cap is the 3 ram cap.

  13. Re: #9, ECA, added a 5 min chart…nice gap higher this morning…ECA looks great, but the problem is the 3 days remaining on july options…if the mkt pulls back I would not be surprided to see ECA try to pull back a bit into the gap,which would be a potential place to consider longs, longer term… next major resistance is closer to $35

  16. Can’t recall where I read it… maybe a portfolio mngr interview in the WSJ this weekend? Anyway, the PM being profiled is a complete (but technically-driven) contrarian. He postulated that the ultimate in contrarian trade “right now” (i.e. last week) was to go long BP and short AAPL.

    Ha! Pretty timely call.

  18. HAL acting poorly yesterday and again today, quickly selling off the pre opening bounce. Could be expectations are in for a quarterly beat that now won’t be enough to satisfy.

  19. Pretty obvious someone with a little cash to spare tried to juice SSN at all costs this am. I think it is worth quite a bit more here but people really should lay off playing games with it.

  20. ZTRADE – ZIM – ECA

    ECA – Sold half (15) of the ECA July $33 calls for average $0.8033, up 207%, with the stock at $33.55.

  22. Nice to see PXD kicking back up, probably too little too late but it can still easily close the gap to $65 in a green market.

  23. OAS inching higher into new coverage and an operations update. Soonest for coverage should be Thursday. Operations update could come any day but latest will be by their 2Q earnings release.

  24. Baltic down, again

    Natural Gas once again up before the mkt opens and then is sold off. Doesn’t happen every day, but with out a lot of analysis, more often than not.

  25. Eld – I still think NG has not a lot of near term downside left in it. Very hot this week and last boosting demand, storms will come back soon as well.

    ECA moving on up, which is why I average out as often as I average into positions. Playing with house money and then some at this point in that one.

  26. SD / ARD both moving up into the July 15th vote. My sense is that it is a done deal. I think that is a modest positive for SD. May take a flier on a few calls going into next week, spreads very narrow for SD now although the premiums are relatively high.

  27. Jerome… did you buy those CIGX calls?

    The surface appears calm, but there is a lot going on behind the scenes. We have been steadily adding around the $1.52 level. No idea what goosed price today. Guess it was the massive call purchase.

  28. APC moved without me, I think that there will be an opportunity to buy it lower around either their testimony next week or at earnings time (a number of brokers now looking for a miss there to Street consensus although the logic looks fuzzy … gas prices).

  29. RE: #27, BOP…no, sorry to give that impresssion, but I guess the post sort of sounded like that…I have stock, but thought the call purchase was noteworthy and an interesting development, CIGX is still winding within that large daily triangle…

  30. ZTRADE – ZCAT – BP

    Adding a little more risk to this portfolio

    BP – Added (30) July BP $40 calls for for $0.23 with the stock just over $37. Thinking is that the stock will get a decent move when they choke down the new 3 ram cap placed on the well yesterday.

    The ECA trade from earlier was erroneously reported as a ZIM trade but that one was in the ZCAT as well.

  31. #17-heh-would need a lot of duct tape as well-Steve Jobs must have gone postal when he saw that consumers report video.

  34. Jobs won’t see it. “Apple has done it again. All threads about Consumer Report’s iPhone4 non-recommendation are removed or deleted.

  38. SWN – looking poised on the daily chart to start a pre earnings run. Doubtful they miss numbers, should get more word on increased hedge position. Also, a better description of what they are doing in Nova Scotia.

  39. Nicky returns tomorrow, asking for her revised thoughts given this stronger than expected move in the S&P

    BOP – how’s TED, and is HT up to commenting?

  40. Crude holding above $77. I think the estimates for tomorrow are still too conservative for crude and for gasoline.

    Also, the Street is now looking at 81 Bcf for Thursday’s gas report. Thinking 75 Bcf myself but need one more set of inputs before I nail it down. Recall that last week they botched it badly causing gas to plummet.

  41. TED still has his death grip on +37.6 bps. Not really moving off that shelf. Still, nice to see LIBOR finally drifting a tad lower… means global banks a tad less worried about what is on each other’s balance sheets.

    HeadTrader had some interesting comments this morning…

    HT : According to Jason Goepfert at sentimenTrader, the last time S&P futures gapped up 1% after five straight up days was September 2006.
    There were two other times in history (March 2003 and September 1996) that this phenomenon occurred.
    Both dates marked the launch of bull markets.

    HT : diff times, but still interesting

    HT : and yes, we hang on to the green today

  42. Coast Guard says BP “should be able to contain flow from Macondo well by mid-july regardless of well tests.” There’s Thad Allen going all cowboy on us. He obviously thinks it will work. No doubt White House will tell him to again adopt the harsher stance with BP.

  44. Nicky Blackberry Watch:

    “I have half an eye on it! Looks to me as if we are close to completing A of an ABC. B should take us back towards 1050 into 16th – 19th JULY.”

  45. BP stock just marking time at $37.25. Camera feeds show flow out the top of the new stack unabated but that the seal between the new stack and the BOP is solid.

  46. KOG — one could make an entire career out of just swing trading this stock. That would make HeadTrader very happy. He would like to see more trading being done.

  47. HAL crawling green now but only with the help of a very solid S&P. S&P can turn on a dime either today or tomorrow depending on earnings at INTC and retail sales in the morning (although expectations are low there).

    Have a bid under those BP calls for another piece in the ZCAT. BP spill cam going back to the top of the Nielson ratings now that World Cup and Wimbeldon are over. And Lance appears to be toast.

  48. BOP – absolutely. Also, meant to thank you for the 50% you made me (by convincing me to get in) in the half of the EXXI I sold. Keep the ideas coming.

    KOG is now #1 position in Intern #1’s college or European tour account (she still insists she doesn’t need more school as she reads at 3rd grade level at the end of 1st grade and reasons that she should get a couple of years off).

  50. KOG…added a 30 min chart, breaking out above multiple perspective triangles, there is SMA resistance here on the daily at $3.40, KOG also has a great looking weekly charts at the moment…

  51. Boss – working on that list now, will be triggered off the catalyst list almost entirely this season. I don’t expect a lot of earnings surprises but I do expect some interesting things to come about, especially in the Bakken. I’m also cross referencing it with previous recent highs versus current levels. That highlights names like WLT and WLL.

  52. Watching BP come in pretty quickly now, canned my bid at 19 cents. Someone somewhere must be saying something pretty negative.

  55. Seeing comments that BP stock run has been fueled by short covering. Don’t know (yet) if there are longs willing to pick up the reigns and drive the cart from here…

  56. ZTRADE – ZCAT – BP

    BP – Added a second set of (30) July $40 calls for $0.14, with the stock at $36.40, brings average cost to about $0.20. High risk trade, still waiting on well pressure tests to kick in.

  57. z — #48… thank you for your kind words. But 50% kinda pales to your 817% trade you closed yesterday. wow.

  58. Thanks for the price comment. Not a hill of beans to them.

    Re short covering, maybe but sort of doubt it, there really wasn’t a big short position to cover relative to the trading volumes we’ve been seeing.

  60. BP — given that the stock trades on so many exchanges around the world… is it really possible to know exactly the amt of shares shorted???

  62. Hear ya, me too. I think a lot of quick money is nervously watching or nervous quick money and don’t want to be left without a chair when all the “good” news has tapered off. Sounds like $20 B in clean up plus at least $20 B in compensation fund. Have seen estimates for total bill, from a group I have a lot of respect for, ranging as high as $120 B over the next 20 years.

  63. Clarification on Moratorium 2.0

    Now water depth does not matter. Suspends drilling on wells using subsea blow-out preventers or surface blow out preventers on floaters.

    To me that sort of sounds like CAM is going to get to sell everyone a new, redesigned BOP.

  64. OAS approaching $16.

    BEXP getting a bounce but still don’t get the recent weakness there. Maybe it is due to slippage of the TFS test at Rough Rider but this seems like a big over reaction to that news. Don’t see how they won’t have Rogney well news (Montana Bakken) on the call and don’t see EOG not commenting officially on their Caret well (also Montana Bakken).

  68. Just flipped through the 143 slides of the EVEP analyst day. Not much new, co. still comingles Enervest and EVEP freely. No data to calculate reserves or production per share. Goal is to increase distribution 5%/yr. Stock strong since 7/8 presentation.

  70. Eld – Yes, so far so good there, thinking $20 for a relatively near term target but if they are moving slower on targets than I have it could fall well short of that. Longer term I think they are in a good spot, assets wise.

    LINE through $28 and targeting old highs from December. Nice to see that the high for the year and we get the yield.

  71. RMD – thanks, don’t those guys know investors want simplicity of corporate structure and predictability? I’m sticking with LINE. They should have more Granite Wash news in the not too distant future.

    I’ll have an updated Catalyst List out tomorrow.

  72. EXXI has a nice consolidation triangle formation on the daily, I’ve added an extended chart for perspective…major lower triangle trendline support at $15 which is the juncture of the 200 day SMA and lower trendline support, resistance at the 100 day at just under $18, from here, a new P&F buy signal at $18.50…

  73. “if the well can sustain up to 9,000 PSI for the first six hours of the 48 hour test, the cap could shut off all flow until a relief well kills the leak by mid August”

    “If the pressures linger at 6,000 PSI or less, we’ll know we can’t sustain that in the long run”

    ~ Thad Allen.

    If the stack can’t shut it in, they will still have 4 vessels for containment of up to 80,000 bopd and the much better seal on the top of the BOP.

  74. #72 correction, EXXI, an extension buy signal at $18.50 above trendline resistance, EXXI is still on the old buy signal….

  78. Isle – just 2. Earnings which they should beat, probably no boost to guidance though. And they have a couple of important wells coming up (1 oil test at Red Hawk in the northwestern part of the EFS – Zavala, Cty) and then their first Bossier Test.

  80. RE: #75,OAS.. I agree, at least from the perspective of the daily and P&F, but I added a 30 min chart in addition to the 5 min which looks great right now….

  83. RE: #81, SSN, also looking very good right now, holding at daily topside ascending triangle support, the 30 min also still stepping higher…

  85. Re: #84, dij, I see it, I wonder if the gravitational pull of the 200 day at 110.50 might have some impact…

  86. Nicky still says it will rollover, I would think the 50 day would be as good a place as any for that to start.

  88. Thoughts on where oil goes between here and expiry? I’m looking at either cutting apme losses, takin some scuds or hoping for about a 4% move between here and Friday

  89. Baylor – oil is tracking the S&P, before today’s strength I would have said oil was an easy layup for strength tomorrow because the numbers aren’t that hard to make, no it is less so. As to a target by Friday, best guess is between $75 and $80, but I don’t really do that so it is just a guess. Probably has more to do with retail sales tomorrow and INTC results than it does with the inventory results.

  91. Looks like anyone who was disappointed in the GST update has sold and moved on. Stock free to move about the cabin now. Could be a fun trip.

  92. Obama Administration talking about cracking down on unpaid internships. I would post that against the Cramer comment about the Admin becoming more business friendly. I’d offer you an unpaid internship but it’s better for your resume if it just says unemployed?!

  94. BP back to even as we approach the close. Activity heating up around the top of the new stack which is still flowing freely from what I can tell visually and from the pix of the outflow pressure gauges which are next to 0 psi.

  96. GST has has 32k gross and 16k net acres in E. Tx that are prospective for the Deep Bossier. These are 100% operated acres. I’m guessing about 80% of the Deep Bossier acreage is prospective for Glen Rose. However, I think they have also leased more acreage recently, just for the Glen Rose play. So, don’t know final acreage tally for The Rose. They ain’t tellin’…

    check out the following slide… it’s not there anymore…

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/GST/945960937x0x379769/9f7b41e3-2618-4c8a-a27d-1117ed71aa37/Gastar_Exploration_-_2010_AGM_-_Website.ppt#1052,14,Slide 14

  97. #92 — “cracking down on unpaid internships”…?? That shows almost as much intelligence and business savvy as talking about “putting your boot on the throat of the guy who is going to solve the problem for you.”

    These guys are just frickin’ UNBELIEVABLE.

  101. API

    +1.7 crude
    +1.7 mo gas
    +3.1 dist

    Crude imports down 749kpd WoW
    Utilization Flat 87%.

    Something I’m not missing here?

  103. HeadTrader saying INTC report “couldn’t be better”… “HUGE”

    Intel seeing “strong demand from corporate customers”… up to now, has only been the consumer driving biz… so this is great news.

  105. SSN on the tape regarding it's Bakken operations … details in tomorrows post but in short, good results from their existing well after 3 months of production but like other little guys, seeing slippage in the drilling and completion schedule.

  106. Games being played pre open in a couple of our names. HK showing trades at 19.99
    SSN, which is more likely to be real but still an unnecessary and obvious attempt to generate a breakout on the chart is trading 1.07. 

  108. OAS outperforming as we approach lunch. Should see coverage beginning either tomorrow, Friday, or Monday. Other onshore oily names working fairly well save KOG which a big low on volumes today.

    Eld – to my layman’s eye, HK does look more interesting now.

    Thinking 75 Bcf tomorrow, Street at 81, one more number to round up.

    BP update: pressure gauge on the outlet at 0 so test not started yet, not comments from BP or the Coast Guard to alter the latest “Wednesday afternoon” comment.

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