Monday Morning And All Is Back To Normal

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Market Sentiment Watch: The "Melt Up" that everyone loves to hate continued last week except for the energy groups which were distinctly neglected and in some individual names saw the beginnings of Spring time abandonment. I plan to slowly wade back into a few of the suddenly cheaper names with near term catalysts with the emphasis on slowly. I do think we see some nibbling in the natural gas names but will wait for them to put a few days in a row of positive results and/or for a good gas supply number later today. The wrap contained the summary tables for last week's oil and natural gas storage level along with some cursory comments and can be seen here.


The Week Ahead:

  • Monday 3/29:  Personal incomes (Forecast = 0.1%), Consumer spending (f=0.3%), Natural Gas Monthly (with Supply figures for the month of January)
  • Tuesday 3/30: Consumer confidence (f=51)
  • Wednesday 3/31:  EIA Oil Inventory Report, ADP employment (f = 40K), Chicago PMI (f=61.7%), factory orders (f= 0.8%)
  • Thursday 4/1: EIA Natural Storage Report, jobless claims (f = 440K), ISM (f=57.4%), construction spending (f = -0.6%), auto sales (f= 12 mm)
  • Friday 4/2: MARKET CLOSED, payrolls (f= +189K), unemployment rate (f=9.7%)

In Today's Post:

  • Holdings Watch
  • Commodity  Watch
  • Stuff We Care About Today - SSN, SWN enters New Brunswick, HK success at Red Hawk and new Black Hawk areas of the Eagle Ford, LINE makes an oily buy.
  • Catalyst Watch Update
  • Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio, formerly the $10KP II):

  • $8,650
  • 96% Cash
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Friday’s Trades:

    • NONE

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $8,300
    96% Cash (No positions)
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Friday’s Trades:
    • NONE

Commodity  Watch:

Crude oil fell 1% last week to close at $80.00. The 12 month crude strip is now trading at $81.71. This morning crude is trading up 60 cents.

  • PetroChina Watch: $60 billion spending spree on the horizon as the company seeks to expand it's international production base to half of total production by 2020. On an annual basis this represents a doubling of their international spending and should be a boon for service names including the deepwater rig operators. It should also mean more acquisitions.
  • Mid East Navy Watch: UAE ships fired on a Saudi patrol boat last week. The two have a had a marine border dispute going for quite some time. This is the first time I recall shots being fired though and it could add a little risk premium to the price of oil if it happens again.


Natural gas fell another 7% last week, slipping below $4 for the first time in 6 months, to close at $3.87 on the front month contract. The 12 month strip continues to trade at a comparatively strong $4.51. Heating degree days are of shrinking value this time of year but evidence is building that industrial demand is on the mend, more on that later this week. We should get another view of supply as well, later today. This morning gas is trading up slightly.


Stuff We Care About Today

SSN Operations Update:

  • SSN issued another non-release in terms of new data that you can wrap your arms around but did provide a date for completion of their first Bakken horizontal well. The Gene #1-22H, in Williams county, N.D., with a 5,500' lateral,  looks to be set to have an IP released in the second week of April. I've added it to the Catalyst List below.

SWN Enters New Brunswick:

  • Exclusive license to explore on 2.5 mm acres
  • Capital commitment of $47 mm over 3 years, so not much vs their approximately $2 B budget for 2010.
  • The press release mentions Maritimes Basin which is a gas producer offshore and produces a limited amount of oil onshore.
  • Also mentions they are looking for oil and natural gas
  • New Brunswick called it the largest tender for activity ever but the price paid for the license was not disclosed in the pr.
  • Nutshell: neutral, needs more explanation which I'd gather will be leaked out over the next several weeks.  My best guess is they are looking at some oil shale or conventional oil production onshore. I don't see them making a big play for natural gas at this time here. They may be after the Frederick Brook Shale, see Contact Exploration (CEX.V), time will soon tell. This new interest in the area by SWN  and probably soon by others may goose those shares and those of PetroWorth, also a small fish New Brunswick oil producer (PTW).

HK Adds New Black Hawk Field & First Success At Red Hawk. This is from their Howard Weil presentation last week but I don't recall it's mention on the site last week nor was there a press release. The Red Hawk discovery is good news, the Black Hawk discovery explains where some of their "other Eagle Ford acreage" is and I'd note that both are oily finds. The fact that their stock didn't react to an oil shale discovery is I guess not surprising as it came last week when no one was paying attention to much in the way of good news in the energy sector.

  • Red Hawk Field: Zavala County, Texas. This is the shallow Eagle Ford oily prospect I've been waiting on for some time now.

    • Well #1 IP at 350 Bopd.
    • Well #2 set for a mid April spud.
    • This is the first oil production in this area from the Eagle Ford and I'm impressed by the opening rate and by the fact that they have 90,000 net acres here.
    • It's early but they put these wells' reserves at 150 to 250,000 boe
  • Black Hawk Field: DeWitt County, Texas (to the northeast of their main Eagle Ford stomping grounds in McMullen and LaSalle Counties and near where PXD has put up some big results).

    • Well #1 IP'd at 3.3 MMcfgpd and 1,150 barrels of condensate per day
    • Well #2 set to complete any day now.
    • Much bigger EUR's of 500 to 750,000 boe (that's Bakken sized numbers)

LINE Announces Another Acquisition, This Time Going Oily:

  • Permian Basin for $305 mm.

    • Reserves of 18 MM BOE (acquired for $16.94 / BOE)
    • 2,800 BOEpd (>75% oil, long lived reserves > 17 years)
    • >120 infill drilling locations in the Wolfberry
  • Nutshell: These are oily reserves and production and given the volumes here more than balances their gassy Michigan acquisition announced last week. This will be helpful, more than last week's acquisition will be in the near term, in boosting their prospects for a 2010 distribution increase (just by a small tweak upwards).  I continue to own the units.

Catalyst Watch Update

This is the latest update and I will probably do another later this week as I have a couple of more presentations from Howard Weil last to flip through.


Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • SWN - Goldman takes it to Conviction Buy
  • UBS cut a number of price targets slightly this morning in E&P. On our list, NFX drops $2 to $60, stays Buy,
  • EOG - upped to Outperform at RBC - this is on my list for adding back this week in front of their analyst day next week.
  • CLR - upped to Outperform at Morgan Keegan
  • CNQ - cut to Neutral at UBS


169 Responses to “Monday Morning And All Is Back To Normal”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Thanks APBD, much appreciated.

    BOP has accepted her T-shirt.

    The dollar is once again backing away from recent highs helping crude this morning.

    SWN is marked higher on their New Brunswick entry and the Goldman rating upgrade.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    I’ll be adding a small basket of E&P longs this am to the ZCAT, testing the post vacation waters.

  3. 3
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – thanks for the other New Brunswick producer names. I’ll do some reading.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Personal income unchanged, personal spending up 0.3% … in line.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Goldman cutting targets on onshore drillers, NBR, PTEN, HP.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — thanks for keeping the catalyst list up to date and highlighted. That is one of the best services you do for us. Extremely useful.

  7. 7
    nifkin Says:

    Goldman cut tgts on land drillers, but upgrades PTEN to neutral..thier favorite in the group is HP

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    “Everyone” hates nat gas (including Tom Ward) and is “bored” with the sector. Just seems to me, that is the time to be looking for stuff. When everyone else isn’t.

    List of things to get nat gas prices up…
    o curtailed production
    o increasing service costs lead to curtailed production
    o industrial production increases lead to more demand
    o Russian nat gas production peaking, sucking the marginal LNG shipment into Europe
    o Canada ramps up oil sands production (using nat gas vs exporting)
    o power plant switching to nat gas vs coal
    o Hot Summer = draw on electricity for a/c
    o Hurricane season

    what else??

  9. 9
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Weekly Rig Count Recap from TPH

    Gas price be damned – US land activity still climbing. All rigcount sources showing +14-22 rigs w/w. Some disagreement among oil/gas mix (RigData/BHI ~all oil, Smith Bits mostly gas). RigData +19 rigs ~evenly split between private/public E&Ps; EOG up most among publics (+3 rigs to 66 total). West TX/NM (+X) and Mid-Con (+Y) drove increase. GOM +1 rig to 68 total. Canada breakup ongoing at -83 rigs, now 228 working.

  10. 10
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Papa @ EOG gets a top 30 CEO from Barrons.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Re 8 – top 2 should be declining conventional production and increased industrial demand followed by fuel switching from coal.

    On rig counts, the natural gas focused rigs are slowing down, as operators rig up to levels planned for at the end of 2009. I expect some of them to back off slightly, especially in conventional targets which should provide a smallish boost to gas prices. But the bigger thing will be seeing production decline. We get another read on that today along with the bigger revisions that often come with the first data for a new year.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    LINE bid higher on the Permian acquisition. Street must be looking at it as favorably as I do, with them adding oil reserves for low cost with upside remaining. I’d be interested to hear if anyone comes across it, what the PUD component of those reserves was but suffice it to say that I remain a holder there.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Agree BOP that the Street is too bearish on gas. Am seeing stories saying same. Am thinking same. Will be prospecting today, after the little dip. Think the New Brunswick deal may bring gassy SWN to the fore of thoughts for playing a bounce as people say, “I want to be counter-intuitive, and best against the known trade, but I also like the idea of them getting oily down the road”. This deal has the potential to have data creep for weeks as analysts come up to speed. I also think it may light a fire under at least those two Canadians in the post, who I know next to nothing about. Their presentations did look interest though and the CEX.V is trading for pennies.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Looking at small positions in BEXP, WLL, EOG, SWN, HK, ROSE today.

    Coal still moving higher, continuing to miss that trade.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    You’ll note in the catalyst list that the rumors of the demise of the Blueberry Hill appraisal well are just that…rumors. The company continues to drill ahead well below planned TD.

  16. 16
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Expected agenda for EOG 4/7 meeting. 1. Disclosure of new “stealth” plays 2. Outline 2010 capital program. 3. Production guidance for ’11 & ’12.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    S. Korea saying it may have been a N. Korean mine that sank that ship.


  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Tom – where did you come across that?

  19. 19
    1520sbroad Says:

    Anyone going to DUG conference this week?

  20. 20
    jy Says:

    re: #15 MMR Blueberry Hill- you can look at the fact that the well is now drilling 1340′ below proposed TD from 2 sides. 1.- They are hoping to find something deeper on the structure as the original targets are disappointing or; 2.- They are still encountering pays in the well as they drill deeper.

    Take your pick

  21. 21
    tomdavis12 Says:

    18 – Citi’s E&P comments today.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    JY – It was designed to come in high to the other wells so I’m going with fishing for additional pays.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    re 21. Ok thanks. Probably a fair assessment but they already had capex out and their 2011 and 2012 volume projections.

  24. 24
    zman Says:


    SWN – Added 10 $41 April Calls in each of the portfolios on the New Brunswick news (see today’s post for details) with the stock near it’s opening price at $39.40.

  25. 25
    zman Says:


    HK – Added (5) April $20 calls for $0.95 with the stock at $19.95. See today’s post regarding Howard Weil presentation comments regarding their Eagle Ford shale oil operations that went unnoticed in last week’s group sell down.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    TAT – continuing to rally. I went through the March presentation again last night and saw little new. Thanks to BOP for the color from HW last week regarding their long term oil production comments from Turkey.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    SWN cresting $40, good to see the name getting a little traction off it’s lows.

  28. 28
    zman Says:


    BEXP – Added (50) April $17.50 calls for $0.20 with the stock at $15.55. Expecting more well news in the next week or two. See Catalyst list for further details.

  29. 29
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Do you have Cusip # for the PXP new issue. I would like to keep an eye on it. 379 bp above Treas did not seem too bad.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    CXPO – below $3 now. Ouch. After the last call I am now more interested in that name closer to $2.

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PXP issued in 2 tranches, it appears… pick your convexity. The PXP 7 5/8s mature in 2018 (726505AF7) or 2020 (726505AJ9). They are rated B1/BB-

  32. 32
    elduque Says:

    BDI still going down -77 3021

  33. 33
    elijahwc Says:

    Not wanting to sound too much like a tarot reader but the bollinger bands (daily chart) on ARD are converging (pinching) after a sideways consolidation which followed the lights going out (literally) at the beginning of March. In my experience this normally presages a move of significance. Any real techies want to weigh in?

  34. 34
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI sell off (with rest of energy sector rallying) = highly irritating and somewhat irrational. But, it’s not a recognized “go-to” name. So, you suffer a bit when the herd runs.

    That said, for heaven’s sake, it’s 70% OILY production. And fixen’ to drill a number of nice (oily) developement wells this year. They are currently producing 300kboe/d. But are suffering from “what’s that ticker again?” syndrome.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Eli – am thinking the same. It tightens on lower volume and then breaks one way or the other. Don’t they have an investor day coming up?

  36. 36
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    30 kboe/d… got a little too aggressive with the zero key.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    BOP – saw your MMR vs EXXI differentiation commentary last week and agree with it (had little to add at the time). I would now add that MMR is somewhat at a production standstill at the moment, whereas EXXI is continuing to grow organically and via its acquired interests. With oil where it is this should be another feather in the EXXI cap.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Sites to watch for new data today:


    Natural Gas Monthly:

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    CXPO down another 4% on a big up group day.

    BEXP starting to move back up some.

  40. 40
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I mean, i hate to keep banging the same drum. But, it’s just such an attractive drum. And with their oil and gas production largely hedged this year, they can more than handle the debt load. So, you get a leveraged barrel. Which is a good thing, in a rising market (and won’t hurt you in a down one, at least for a while).

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Forget who bought EOG at the end of last week but nice idea/call. I am planning same for analyst meeting on the 7th but was out then and am not chasing (and maybe I should be) on this blasted analyst upgrade.

  42. 42
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EOG — wasn’t that jiveyjr? Goin’ for the wash cycle….

  43. 43
    elijahwc Says:

    Z #35 – I hope not, remember how we got here in the first place! These guys will do much better if they get the juice turned back on before they speak.

    Also I think it breaks up as we are certainly not buying anybody else’s profits here. Also either Bill or BSJ did some pretty convincing valuation work on this name following the collaspe.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    BOP – I thought it was good value add stuff since I trade in both but only own the common of EXXI. As you know, this hurry up and wait action on news is far from new re JB Moffett. I’m guessing they are waiting to TD at Blueberry Hill so they can talk about more than Davy in the next press release.

  45. 45
    DrLink Says:

    Re:BOP 8 It would take some time but passage of HR 1835 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129526-h-r-1835-legislation-for-natural-gas-transportation

    seems it would add some forward looking excitement to natural gas

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    re 43. That was Bill. I sat on the sidelines at the time (and continue to) because it looked more like a chart call than a fundamental one for the next stock move. Also, my thought which was repeated by TPH and others was that the near term production levels would be erratic, dicey, possibly causing them to miss again or lead to a wide range of production targets. 18 months from now? No problem. But the intervening time they take to get it all fixed (and it sounded like they had quite a bit of fixing to do) could make production less certain.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Anyone see a CXPO comment today. Now down 7%. Funny how the underwriters of the secondary they sold the public on at $5 all came out with $6 and $7+ targets and we are now approaching $2.

  48. 48
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI has more upside to (largely) the same play as MMR, but without the crunch to raise capital and/or add a partner. And it’s 68% oil production (vs MMR 75% gas). NOT saying EXXI will never again issue debt or stock (pretty shiny baubles have a way of attracting Schiller’s eye), but you don’t have so many of the open and negative issues that MMR has right now.

    EXXI = main risk (IMHO) = upcoming hurricane season vs geographic concentration of producing assets. A non-insignificant risk.

  49. 49
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    DrLink — #45… that makes so much sense, it brings tears of joy to my eyes and a well of hope to my heart. Thank you for posting.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    BOP – not to dash your hopes but that story is a year old. It may pass this year, it’s Cramer’s favorite story in the energy space, but it has to get through this congress which may prove pretty tough. CLNE has been running up in part on the idea that it will pass. I have not seen a recent story on likelihood of passage but the last one I saw had it as a jump ball.

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    That’s the thing with hope… it springs eternal, right?

    Maybe someday… somewhere…

    (sounds like a song to me)

  52. 52
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 42…just bought EOG off the 200 day ema, which corresponded to a prior pivot low. Then this morning someone upgrades it and makes me looker considerably brighter than I am….

  53. 53
    bill Says:

    on ard.

    Joel Musante, CFA
    Senior Analyst at ck cooper sees it this way

    at 60 oil value is 31.35
    at 70 oil value is 39.92
    at 80 oil value is 49.99
    at 90 oil value is 58.82

    The name is in the dog house do to q4 earnings miss. My hang up with the earnings miss was tat a good piece of it was due to the pv-10 analysis and the 1 time write associated with it. Ard just took the hit in dda and didnt call it out as a SEPARATE NON CASH line item , so everyone reported the bottom line number as it was an operational miss. Confusing matters was some operational issues, one not meaning a damn was 3 days of production not being picked up due to a vendor trucking change, which means a slip into q1 2010, not loss revenue/earnings from the missing 3 days of production . Q1 will have 3 more days of revenue in it as that oil gets picked up/sold

    the stock at 33 is trading at a value of proved reserves only

    chris pikul, morgan keegan said in a note

    “Further, proved reserves of 69.3 Mmboe were below our forecast of 76 Mmboe, although
    the PV-10 value of $1.1 billion was in-line with our estimate, confirming our proved-only
    NAV of about $30.
    • In light of diminishing EUR’s per well and uncertain infrastructure hurdles, we suspect momentum investors have already exited the stock. So the question remains, are sufficient catalysts in place to attract new investors to the name at current levels? Unfortunately, we
    think it could take several quarters to assuage operational concerns and the shares may continue to suffer in the near-term.
    • So despite oil prices near $80 and a reiterated 30% growth profile, we think investor
    sentiment could remain weak and we would divert oil-directed investment dollars toward a
    name that is “working” a bit better.

    In the short run, he has been right on as the stock never even got a dead cat bounce from a 25 % price hit! Stocks dont trade on fundamentals in the short term, they trade on momentum and herd mentality. value stocks stay “valued until a catalst wakes everyone up.

    to his question> So the question remains, are sufficient
    catalysts in place

    answer , i see 2 items of merit

    next qtr q1 earnings will be the catalyst as earnings should double

    2. A new well at Clear fork could spark some interest

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Bill.

    Missed my morning trade on WLL, will await the pullback there. Still cheapest name in the Bakken I can find. I continue to own the common.

  55. 55
    Nicky Says:

    Good morning all.

    A few bits and pieces I have picked up:

    median home price in Detroit now stands at $7000. This is actually very good news as a year ago it was $6500 so nearly a 8% gain!!!

    For silver traders- Whistleblower Exposes JP Morgan’s Silver Manipulation Scheme
    The next day he & his wife were victims of a hit & run episode.
    Assassination Attempt On Silver Market Manipulation Whistleblower?
    For gold traders -Former Goldman Commodities Research Analyst Confirms LMBA OTC Gold Market Is “Paper Gold” Ponzi

  56. 56
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Shorts (which are mainly HFs) have made a LOT of $$ in MMR. They have quarter end results to post in 2 days. Makes sense to cover here, to lock in some gains. Bet we see some of that today, tomorrow…

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    SWN – pretty impressed by the continued strength in the name, especially through the morning lull. Wonder how JB sees the chart now. If anyone sees a broker note with thoughts on the New Brunswick prospects please let me know. Thanks.

    Thanks Nicky, got levels?

  58. 58
    Nicky Says:

    Indices – could be a triangle playing out here. If we stall at 1175 and move back to 1166 and hold there it is the most likely count.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    BOP – MMR in 2 days?

  60. 60
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Think HFs cover their short in MMR on or before the end of this quarter. That’s all i was alluding to.

    I have given up on guessing when JB puts out an update on DJ. Some have speculated that JB is “mad” and has gone radio-silent because of that. If there is ANY truth to that, then i would say to him GET OVER IT, DUDE, AND PUT OUT A PR!

    On the other hand, JB has never shied away from controversy. So, don’t know why no DJ operational update recently.

    Just my 1.5 cents.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    BOP – ok, hear ya.

  62. 62
    Nicky Says:

    Someone tell me whats the fundamental reason behind this move in oil today. The dollar is not that weak but commodities are on fire.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Nicky – I wonder if part of oil up is Saudi and UAE shooting at each other. That’s what I’d call a rare event.

  64. 64
    1520sbroad Says:

    i’ve been looking for broker notes on swn this morning and have found zero. i got a “no comment” (as expected) from SWN. They are making the conference rounds so maybe we get a few questions from the analyst crowd there and some more detail. I’ll be at IPAA in NYC and will lob a Canada question their way if i get a chance.

  65. 65
    john11 Says:

    Goldman upgrade on SWN came out last night…
    19:55 ET 3/28/10 Southwestern Energy (SWN) upgraded to Conviction Buy from neutral; E&P sector upgraded at Goldman Sachs

  66. 66
    john11 Says:

    Though the target is reduced to $54 from $56. The E&P sector is upgraded to attractive from neutral. The firm retains Conviction Buy List rating on XCO and buy ratings on UPL, DVN, NFX, EOG, and STR.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Thanks John. GS is calling a bottom in natural gas.

  68. 68
    Nicky Says:

    Looking at cycles and the wave count by this time next year the SPX should be very close to the all time highs. Then stand by for it to go back to last years lows or lower.

  69. 69
    Nicky Says:

    Natural gas has big support at 3.50 if it needs to go lower. Still thinking that 3.80 holds.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    TPH on SWN (personally I think my bullets are better but I’m biased)

    Deal isn’t stock mover, but valuation should be as SWN ranks second (to CHK) amid gassy large caps. SWN pricing in $5.60/mcf long-term gas; 43% upside to our $54 target. Maritimes Basin new lease covers 2.5mm acres, has both oil and natural gas prospects, requires ~$50mm investment over 3 years. SWN joins APA and EOG who are/have attempted exploration in basin.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    re 68 = wow. That’s pretty dire.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Nicky – do you know if Prechtor is saying the same thing?

  73. 73
    VTZ Says:

    Hi Nicky – RE: Gold/Dollar I see a retest coming of the uptrend line in gold that is also inline with my support band above 1080 in the next little week or so.

    If we bounce off the uptrend line then break above the top of the wedge ~1130, then we are positioned nicely for another big run.

    This is likely to coincide with a turn in the Euro/Dollar relationship (although not necessarily), but I feel as though you can only bang on the Greece drum for so long and that issue is nearing resolution. The Euro has lost 20% in a hurry and the dollar has failed to breakout in a significant way.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    HK – adding to the above, HK says that 350 bopd IP well at Redhawk EFS field was not optimally oriented. Second well to spud on tax day.

    Their Blackhawk well held up very well from IP to 30 day average. Pretty impressive for a shale well, shallow decline. Says the field is possibly better quality than their original Hawkville Field. Recall that HK thinks Hawkville is better/more economic than the best core area in the Haynesville. They clearly like this area as they have a second well already fraccing and three more wells now being drilled. They have 53,000 acres here in this 3rd Eagle Ford Shale development area.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    Hey BOP – EXXI cleaned up nicely.

  76. 76
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #57 SWN…exciting opening…SWN needs to print $41 to reverse back into X’s on the curent sell signal, bumping against resistance at that level now…really needed to be in right at the open…risk is a bit more difficult to manage now…

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB. My thought is its run further in one day than I would have expected and if the indexes hold up into the close we could see that $41 shortly before then. I may take profits in the ZIM position then.

  78. 78
    Nicky Says:

    #72 Prechter – I have not seen his count. I believe he was on Bloomberg last week saying (again) that now was another great shorting opportunity.

  79. 79
    Nicky Says:

    VTZ – imo Euro could have a bounce short term and the dollar a pullback but I think the euro is going much lower. I can look at the chart and put a different count on it but this is my preferred look at it.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky.

  81. 81
    Jerome Blank Says:

    ROSE…I’m also watching ROSE today, based on the daily, I’d like a try at about $22.00, if it ever gets there…good spot, right at 50 day SMA support, and easy to manage with stops under $21…$21 prints a new P&F sell signal…very aggressive buy at $22.50, which is next support (check out the daily chart), but the stop would need to be below $21, easy to get whipped out with protective stops above that price…

  82. 82
    1520sbroad Says:

    i mentioned ESPH here a while back. I have been looking at it some more – anyone out there in the field seen their technology? I think Wyoming said he had seen it but it was wildly expensive. Seems like a lead into gold type of magic trick. As i was filtering back thru some SWN notes i had today following the New Brunswick announcement i saw that they are using ESPH’s process to some degree.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    JB – hear ya on ROSE, also watching for a re entry on calls there, was planning on getting back in either on a pullback or a little closer to earnings … they should have quite a bit more detail on the Alberta Bakken and maybe 7 more EFS wells.

    1520 – don’t know that one, will ask Wyo.

  84. 84
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG…right now looks like a nice bullish ascending flag forming on the 30 min…love to see another attempt at the $3.25 level…the more times resistance is tested the greater the probability of a break…

    SSN pressing the topside trendline of that little consoldiation flag….

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    JB – saw your NOG comment last week, nice timing there.

  86. 86
    1520sbroad Says:

    #83 – thanks. ESPH is a single-digit-midgit-no-expiration-date-call type. I’m just curious if their process actually works.

  87. 87
    elijahwc Says:

    Bill thx for comments on ARD earlier in the day. Especially “the stock at 33 is trading at a value of proved reserves only”. Sort of Seth Karlman’ish!

  88. 88
    Jerome Blank Says:

    NOG…gosh…picture perfect breakout from that beautiful ascending triangle…absolutely classic…I missed it waiting for a pullback to trendline support…hopefully someone got in before the breakout…I was asleep on that test…they don’t get much better than that…

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    JB – so if SWN prints 41 and notches up 3 X’s would that be a bear trap?

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    I am finding this 4 pager on Point and Figure formations somewhat useful:


  91. 91
    choices Says:

    Latest on NG/water safety from NYT. IMHO, the industry really needs to get out in front on this issue. PBS had a discussion on NOW Friday which was negative for NG drilling. It is in the public eye and we all know what our hacks in Congress will do with that-pound the table, raise campaign money and taxes and pass anti-economic legislation.

    Monday morning mini-rant over.


  92. 92
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #89, technically no, a bear trap is a one box sell print, then a 3 box reversal into X’s….

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    re 91. Hear ya on that and thanks.

    re 92. Would it be the bullish shakeout?

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Still nothing from EIA re gas supply update.

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:


    Market Update – after spending the last three sessions flat-to-down, equities are out of the gate on a strong note (up ~0.5%), led higher by commodity-linked stocks (energy and materials) and health care; sp500 has been up ~6-7 pts for most of the day so far. Color on the desk remains consistent – the room is very quiet and volumes are light (the quiet trends are being exacerbated by the holidays this week – Passover kicks off tonight and markets are closed for Good Friday). There isn’t a ton of conviction behind the buying today…people are worried about repeating the Thurs/Fri trend where a decent open was followed by selling in the afternoon. Investors very hesitant to chase prices higher and are “reluctantly long”, but shorts are scared to initiate positions while longs are staying put. The tape remains resilient, shrugging off the Russia news overnight and the continued uptick in TSY yields. Benefiting sentiment today was a slew of M&A headlines (VOD/VZ, CKXE, BWY, AVT/BELM, etc) and the Greek bond sale (Greece sold an oversubscribed bond issue this morning and the country says it is now fully funded for the month of Apr; the deal priced at +310bps, inline w/the indicated guidance). Technically, the 1180 high from last Thurs is bring watched, and then 1195. On the downside, people watching for a close below 1156.

    Equity Sectors – the weaker dollar is giving a boost to the commodity-linked groups today; energy is up ~1.7% and materials are up ~1%. Energy stocks have been among the biggest laggards on a YTD basis. As of ~11:55am, every energy stock in the sp500 was higher (SWN, MEE, CHK, BTU, DNR, HP are some of the stronger performing names). The materials sector is being led higher by metals (TIE, CLF, NUE, X, etc, are all outperforming). Financials are flattish today as the group sees some profit taking after a strong multi-week run (C shrs dip ~3% as investors would have preferred to see a single large secondary vs. a months-long dribble deal).

    Industrials stocks are strong today (this group outperformed last week as well) – PCP, ITT, BA, DE, MAS, etc, are all leading the group higher. Tech is underperforming slightly, as strength in the semis is offset by some selling in the hardware stocks (EMC falls 2.5% and is one of the weakest big stocks in the whole market).

    The retailers are for sale today (RSH, URBN, GPS, TGT, BBY, etc, are all off; RSH is underperforming following a cautious mention in Barron’s). The online travel stocks are very strong performers today (EXPE and PCLN).

    Commodities: Commodities have moved higher across the board. Copper is trading near its highs up, up ~3.5%. Gold has traded relatively flat during the morning after rallying overnight; its trading near $1113, up ~0.7%. Oil surged, and is now trading at ~$82.40, up ~3%. Natural Gas is up ~0.5% and is trading around $3.90, although off its highs.

    FX: USD (DXY) has weakened today, coming off its morning highs to trade ~$81.35, down 0.4%. The dollar has sold off vs. the Euro/Pound and is trading near its lows, down ~0.4% and ~0.5%. The dollar has traded a bit higher vs. the Yen, near its highs, up ~0.15%.The Euro is also trading near its highs vs. the Yen, up ~0.6%.

    Corp. Credit: Corp. Credit is a bit strong than equities this morning. IG 14 have tightened 1bp while HY 14 has gained ¾ of a pt.

    Treasuries: Treasuries are mixed today – the 2s are unchanged from last Friday and are yielding 104 bps, while the 10s have solid off a bit and are yielding 3.87%. The 2-10 year spread has steepened to 283bps.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP – volumes still not very impressive except in some of the story names, like SWN today. People hate chasing these slam higher at the open moves.

  97. 97
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: WLL within pennies of a new high. Very impressive.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Tom – speak of the devil.


    Added (5) April $85 calls to start for $1.05 with the stock unwilling to pull back with the rest of the group. I continue to see this as the cheapest name amongst the Bakkens, with more upside in terms of acreage than previously thought and boosted by this run in crude. I suspect crude inventories will build by a smaller amount than current estimates this week, which, combined with what appears to be a breakout on the daily chart prompts me to re enter calls at this time. I continue to hold the common as well.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    EIA still mum on gas supply / demand numbers.

    HK – really surprised they didn’t press release those Eagle Ford oil results. More news soon. Guess they wanted a bigger rate or maybe they are so frustrated they didn’t think it would matter.

  100. 100
    ilikericky Says:

    Would appreciate an opinion on the Jolly Ranch shale oil deposit in terms of potential oil.I see EOG and NFX operate there.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Re 100. Don’t know it, will go dig.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    A little background on the Maritimes Basin:


  103. 103
    zman Says:

    More details on the New Brunswick / SWN deal. They only paid a tuppance for the right to explore.


  104. 104
    Nicky Says:

    Does the market get any more boring than this??? Volume is non existent.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Nicky – can I get your near term levels on crude? Feels higher to me, feels set for a smaller than expected build this Wednesday. Could finally take out the $83.50 level. I think that’s too high but that doesn’t mean it won’t go there.

  106. 106
    choices Says:

    Z-are you familiar with BPT-they just paid in Jan $3.6 div, which on a annual basis is approx 14.4%. I’m still searching for some background as it doubled the prvious div.


  107. 107
    choices Says:

    BPT-Form 10-K


  108. 108
    Nicky Says:

    re # 105 Z – would not surprise me to see it go higher in light of the fact that the commodity market is often last to the party.
    I have resistance at 83.80 and then 84.20. If it can get above the previous high then it could make a run at 90.
    Even so I can also see a possibility that we test 78 before we run higher.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Choices – that’s the royalty trust that got dropped on the Friday before I left, along with Hugoton. I thought there was a rumor surrounding a production disruption that caused it to sell off that Friday. I have not modeled it up but it should be pretty simple to get to their dividend, will put on the list.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Nicky – thanks, not really a big negative deal if downside is only $78. Hmmm. Wonder if commodities are forecasting a hiccup in the dollar. There is an oil meeting in Cancun tomorrow of oil consuming nations and oil producers .. will be interesting to hear their thoughts on current oil prices.

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    What was the ticker of the biotech spoken about last week?

  112. 112
    1520sbroad Says:


    This one got my attention as it relates to ESPH. I am pretty sure the test mentioned in here by SWN is ESPH’s process.

  113. 113
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – thanks for 102 and 103. Interesting to see Potash of Saskatchewan is producing some gas up there.

  114. 114
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #111, CIGX…it’s at a really easy to manage spot right now…I posted a 30 min chart for the intraday perspective…


  115. 115
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB.

    1520 – I sent that to Wyoming who but it’s pretty late there now, should hear something when he gets a chance, maybe later this week, I’d guess.

  116. 116
    ilikericky Says:

    ZMAN what are your thoughts on TISDZ.PK as a means of buying a call on both MMR and EXXI developements.

  117. 117
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG trying for a new high…

  118. 118
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #111… it’s not really a biotech, that’s the beauty. It’s a “nutraceutical,” derived from non-carcenogenic ingredients in tobacco. So, it’s regulated by the FDA but doesn’t need FDA approval. Guesstimating the inVentiv Health people will finalize the contract (any day now) to begin marketing for Star in the Richmond, VA area in June. Star wants to get 3 mos of data before designing and implementing their production runs.

    I own a lot… and my buddy at Tradewinds owns even more.

  119. 119
    RobBanks Says:

    z – I wrote LINE asking about PUD of the PB acquisition. They answered, “give us your phone number and we’ll call you”.

    Anything in particular you would like me to ask?

  120. 120
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG = what a lovely little workhorse that stock has become. Every day, plows a little more field. Gotta love it!

  121. 121
    jiveyjr Says:

    KOG…I sold some at 3.27

  122. 122
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jiveyjr — nice! never wrong to book profits.

  123. 123
    ilikericky Says:

    BOP- KOG is certainly a good ole workhorse I see 52 week high soon.

  124. 124
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — somebody bought some for their dad recently. Can’t recall who. But, my dad still owns his, fwiw!

  125. 125
    jiveyjr Says:

    thx BOP; I’m going to the horse sale tomorrow with my KOG profits….

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    re 116. High risk in that in can expire on you after a certain amount of time as the leases are extinguished. If they come in with a production test I’d bet it doubles even as the leases it pertains to are not coupled to Davy Jones. I don’t own it but I do watch it. Seems to be some smart money in it.

    Rob – nothing on that actually as I don’t think it matters enough to bother with (was thinking about that after I typed it above, at least not much in the big scheme of things). I’d ask what their current coverage ratio is or better yet, where they need to see it to consider a distribution bump. Are they hedging the new production, what’s the idea behind the new wedge, drill to keep flat, drill to grow?

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    BOP – as do my daughter, sister and father.

  128. 128
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Rob, ask what their current R/P ratio is.

  129. 129
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — nice to see the wealth spread around a little. 😉

  130. 130
    ilikericky Says:

    Re 129:. The ol workhorse will take out its 52 week high today.Starting to canter.

  131. 131
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ilikericky — nice to see the ones we love, frolick in the fields occassionally. Bless their little hearts.

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    BOP – RP there should be about 22 post acquisitions.

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    … so really long. There may be a bit of an acceleration there this year to 20 years if they start getting big wells in the granite washes.

  134. 134
    ilikericky Says:

    RE 126 Zman you are right about smart money,hence my question regarding TISDZ.PK.They out performed both MMR and EXXI last week.Well I have joined the smart money set.I do own MMR and EXXI as well.

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    Bakkens strong across the board today. CLR caught an upgrade and that overpriced name is up 10%. BEXP up nearly 7%, cheap WLL up 4.6%, NOG up 5%. ROSE getting left out, may have to add calls back there soon.

  136. 136
    RobBanks Says:

    BOP – it was me that bought KOG for my dad last week (I think it was last week).

    LINE – Citi just out with comments that I agree with completely: Line is doing these accretive acquisitions with an eye on making the distribution sustainable after their fantastic hedges expire. Citi (and I) don’t expect an increase – it’s more to prevent a dist. cut down the road.

    Now if oil and NG future strips really explode in the next year or two, and LINE is able to capture that with hedges, it’s a different story.

    Will ask your questions and BOP’s.

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    LINE – that’s the more likely case. I just want to know if it’s in their thought process. In the past they have acquired and lifted the distribution repeatedly.

    Good to be back. beerthirty.

  138. 138
    ilikericky Says:

    Did you guys see this from the MMR board.Its the HW presentation.Not been from these shores I thought when I was watching the fellah in a peak hat talk that my sound was off?I only then realised that I was not understanding a word and it was English,not the Queens of course.This is tongue in cheek.Hope we all have a GSOH as well as been interested in oil/gas/biotech.

    First time trying to paste a hyperlink,hope it works.


  139. 139
    elijahwc Says:

    ATPG First oil flows @ Telemark Hub

  140. 140
    elijahwc Says:

    ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (ATPG:$18.88,00$0.71,003.91%) today announced first oil production from its deepwater Atwater Valley (“AT 63”) #4 well at the Telemark Hub in approximately 4000 feet of water. ATP initiated production on Sunday after completing a sequence of inspections, certifications, permits and approvals of facilities, structures, safety systems and field development plan systems from required government regulatory bodies including the Minerals Management Service (MMS), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and U.S. Coast Guard as well as classification of the unit by the American Bureau of Shipping (FOI Spar). ATP owns a 100% working interest and is the operator of the Telemark Hub. [Photo: ATP Titan at Telemark Hub, Gulf of Mexico]

    “We have delivered on our goals and objectives by bringing the deepwater hub to first production utilizing our own floating drilling and production infrastructure, the ATP Titan,” said T. Paul Bulmahn, ATP’s Chairman and CEO. ” Although ATP slowed development and capital expenditures during 2008-2009, this billion dollar deepwater project is now on production within 46 months from acquisition of the first Telemark Hub property. That is only 3.8 years from acquisition by ATP to first production in 4,000 feet of water. Offshore data shows that the average for deepwater developments utilizing tension leg platforms is 94.3 months or just under eight years and spar installations averaged 55.6 months or just under five years from discovery to first production. Through difficult financial times, ATP constructed, installed and is producing from a major piece of deepwater infrastructure within a very short development period.”

    “This will be a transforming year for ATP because of the expansive projected production increase,” said Mr. Bulmahn. “This development successfully demonstrates our strengths of tenacity, determination and innovation in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.” The next Telemark Hub well scheduled to produce, Mississippi Canyon 941 (“MC 941”) #3, was previously drilled to a total depth of 20,043 feet encountering 266 feet of net pay sands, approximately triple the 87 feet of net pay sands found in the original discovery well. The third well at MC 941 #4 and the fourth well at MC 942#2 were both drilled to 12,000 feet and are scheduled to be drilled to total depth and completed in 2010.

  141. 141
    jat Says:

    Looks like 914 out

  142. 142
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RobBanks — thanks for the reminder. Bet your dad is happy. Mine is.

  143. 143
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ilikericky — lolololol.

    I listened to the MMR HW presentation too. I thought about posting the link on this board, but you are soooo right. Cajun “English” is an acquired listening skill. I got most, but not all of it. Joke at the end whent completely over my head. (doesn’t help that JimBob mumbles, either)

  144. 144
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:


  145. 145
    zman Says:

    Jat – yeah, Lower 48 production up 0.9 Bcfpgd, which offsets a 0.9 Bcfgpd from Nov to December. Big up in “other states production” to blame. Not a good number for gas. Natural gas monthly not yet out.

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    WLL closed at its 52 week high. More on Bakken valuations in tomorrow’s post.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    BEXP on the tape with a micro sized sale, 602K boe sold to LGCY for $14 mm ($23.25 per BOE which is nice but the size is too small for it to be much of a stock mover for either party.

  148. 148
    dij Says:

    of the handful of max pain numbers I looked at (ARD, MMR BEXP) EXXI is the only one that is currently below its MP number (20)

  149. 149
    elijahwc Says:

    BEXP lighting up on some West TX assets. Very small deal. Meanwhile, ATPG moving on up to the West Side afterhours.

  150. 150
    RobBanks Says:

    Great news on ATPG, Eli.

  151. 151
    elduque Says:

    Z – EIA said it will introduce new methodology in its next monthly report. It says in some cases the revisions will be significant.

    What are they talking about??

  152. 152
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    dij — #148 I don’t understand. Could you expand on what that means a bit? TY!

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    Eld – a new estimation methodology. They do this from time to time.

  154. 154
    RMD Says:

    LINE 136 & 137: the upstream MLPs are very worried about getting the distribution up and out ahead of their hedges in ’13 and ’13 (if you increase distribution a now and they are not covered by new hedges, you may have to cut later). Another way to maintain the distribution as the hedges run off is to increase production via acq. so production increases offset hedge runoff. Both VNR and LINE mentioned this on their conf.calls. They both want a coverage cushion after 2H08-1H09 so they don’t have the same problems again. VNR also wants to lower their debt/Eda ratio strategically.

  155. 155
    elduque Says:

    re 152 goto http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

  156. 156
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elduque — thank you for posting that link. So, if i understand it correctly, there is no reason for anybody to try to push down EXXI (for option expiration purposes) until we start to bump up against $20. Is that how to read this?

  157. 157
    ilikericky Says:

    BOP-That is how I read it to.Snap.

  158. 158
    bill Says:

    eia is out

    any comments

  159. 159
    occam Says:

    ATPG short interest now over 31%. Not where I’d want to be right now.

  160. 160
    zman Says:

    Bill – the 914 data was not bullish. They put this at the front of the Nat Gas Monthly:

    In April 2010, reporting February production, we plan to introduce the new methodology based on that review. At that time, we plan to revise January estimates using the new methodology as well. In some cases, we expect the revisions will be significant. For this report of
    January 2010 estimates, however, we will use the methodology described in our current documentation.

    Which sounds a lot like everything changes next month.

    I’ll have the Nat gas supply slide show out with tomorrow’s post.

  161. 161
    bill Says:

    Higher production doesn’t surprise me as the producers were incentivized at 6 dollar ng and cold weather

    2 months later ng is at 4 and i expect they all will start to slow down

  162. 162
    zman Says:

    Bill – yep, yep.

  163. 163
    Wyoming Says:

    1520’s, don’t think I saw an answer to your question about ESPH. Don’t really know them and I have been out of domestic operations for 6 months now. I wish I new them couple weeks ago; http://screencast.com/t/ZTg3ZmU2Z

    Can’t say I trust an service from Florida

    We looked at a couple of options for recycling our returned water and nothing was economical. There was a pipeline proposed and a consortium of operators then a Canada outfit had a reverse osmosis system. At upper $3 gas, no bueno.

    TPH had this http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aINvzI7k5xYY go figure Hal title and SLB photo. Anyway, bactercides are used mainly in warm conditions due to water residing in tanks or being pulled out of ponds. Winter in the Rockies, frac water does not need it. The by product of bacteria and hydrocarbons is mainly H2S. H2S corrodes equipment (add water and you get sulfuric acid) and in high levels makes work hazardous and potentially deadly. The bacteria effects in a frac / reservoir is usually pretty quick.

  164. 164
    Wyoming Says:



  165. 165
    1520sbroad Says:

    #163 – thanks – yeah that chart is impressive, i did some research on them at the beginning of the year and then they dropped off my radar, coulda shoulda woulda.

    There are a lot of red flags going off in mind on them – teeny tiny stock, not a whole lot of oil and gas experience, not yet even remotely close to profitable, a technology that i can’t really get a grip on etc.

    But – if there is an economic benefit (and it may be that the gov’t leans into this one) to operators using their process then i think there is something there.

    they should release their 10-Q/K this week so at least then i can get a better look at the numbers behind all the mumbo jumbo.

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    Thanks for those thoughts Wyo.

    Re BPT – won’t be building a model there, don’t like the way they present. I’ll stick with my WHX.

  167. 167
    Wyoming Says:


    SeaDrill’s West Hercules working offshore China last week

  168. 168
    zman Says:

    167 – ouch.

  169. 169
    jy Says:

    Double Ouch!! Looks like a number of cables spalled off that block in the 5 sec or so of video. Hope no one maimed.

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