25
Mar

Thursday Bullets

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Inspecting more beach bars today so just a few bullets ....

 

  • Jimmy Buffet's sister's place LuLu's is worth a visit - good Mahi Mahi, better shrimp, beer running very cold and fast.
  • TAT - moving back up... expecting another update there in early April. Should hear something regarding their Turkish/Kurdish exploration efforts although don't look for data prior to mid year.
  • WHX - inching higher with oil at $80+ ... my thinking is unchanged here on the yield (still should do 12+% this year) but I'd count on increased appetites for yield in situations like this where you have just about a 0% chance of a secondary.  Elsewhere in MLP and other energy land we are seeing a plethora of deals. Want to avoid them? Go where they simply are not needed (again, like WHX) or where management has all but signed on the dotted line that a deal is out of the question (HK, no seriously, I'm not kidding, no deal in 2010 or 2011 so maybe the third asset sale will be the charm ... to be announced sometime before the end of the second quarter).
  • Natural Gas Inventories Quick Preview:
    • Street is looking for a 9 BCF BUILD for today's number vs last week's 11 Bcf withdrawal.
    • Looking over the degree days briefly I'd think we can go +15 to -5 Bcf.
      • gas-pop weighted degree days fell from 132 two weeks ago to 110 last week. Note this week is expected to be about the same as last week so still a bit warm for this time of year.
      • imports remain low for this time of year
    • Storage is at1,615 Bcf now, which is  4.7% above the 5 year average and 2.4% below year ago levels
    • Look for gas to be soft (say $3.75 to $4.50) for the next 4 to 6 weeks until the cooling season begins in earnest.
  • Oil Quick Review:
    • Oil eased after the EIA reported a fat increase in crude stocks driven by a surge in imports. In fact imports were up nearly 1 mm bopd and we saw inventories up by just over 7 mm barrels... this lumpiness happens from time to time and I don't think it signals anything more than logistical hiccups in the prior weeks being reversed and maybe a little tankered oil coming ashore to capture $80 oil.
    • Products both fell much more than expected ...both gasoline and distillate benefiting from increased demand. Notably, gasoline demand rose above 9 mm bpd and demand is now  trending ahead of last year despite higher unemployment and significantly higher prices at the pump.
  • SLB buying muddlogging and well intervention private co Georesources for $1 B. This comes close on the heals of their SII buy and should put a little sizzle in service names from CLB to WEL.
  • GDP - I would not be quick to dismiss management's acumen here. Like other recent Gulf Coast to Haynesville converts, especially ones that have little in the way of oil to balance their portfolio against new shale production, the shorts will attack when gas prices fall. The CFO leaving is unlikely to lead to any real news here but may lead shorties to redouble their rumors this morning.

 

 

 

102 Responses to “Thursday Bullets”

  1. 1
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — thanks for weighing in. Appreciate the comments re: quality of mngmt at GDP.

    Heard the move in TAT was due to a bullish presentation by CEO, Malone Mitchell III, at HW. He said something like “we are going to produce more oil than the Turkish National Oil Company by xxx date.” [didn’t get the target date] Anyway, apparently the Crowd Went Wild.

  2. 2
    bill Says:

    chk

    http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748703312504575141903194957806-lMyQjAxMTAwMDIwNTEyNDUyWj.html

  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Stold these comments from MadisonWms morning note…

    Nat Gas Mkt Capitulation: nat gas mkt capitulation continues. Aubrey McClendon (CHK) on Tue and & Tom Ward (SD) yesterday have spent the past year shifting its focus to oil because natural-

    gas production in the U.S. is “totally uneconomical” & make 10 times as much money drilling for oil. Negative consensus on natural gas has become extreme & starting to feel like a capitulation phase.

    Flight to Oil: The massive flight to oil has become strongly consensus & lots of complacency that oil prices will remain stable & the trend is higher. Natural gas supply/ demand fundamentals obviously continue to struggle on concerns about higher shale well productivity, higher drilling efficiencies, gas/ horizontal rig count growth.

    Nat Gas Bulls: The lonely gas bull argument could start to get some support from: (1) Production curtailment/ idling rigs – chatter that CHK laying down rigs, typically an industry leader in past cycles, (2) EIA 914 data – due out on March 31—expect a continued US production decline, (3) Gas Demand – DOE recently increased 2010 demand forecast by +0.7% or +420MMcf/d to 62.93Bcf/d, including Industrial Demand +0.5% or +80MMcf/d to 17.04Bcf/d & Power-Gen Demand +0.86% of +160MMcf/d to 18.67Bcf/d (+3% y/y); more recent data supports the improving trend—steel util 70%, chemical util 75%; (4) Production Decline Rates – industry-wide average decline rates of ~25-30%/yr = 15-18Bcf/d of yearly production losses

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks for he TAT comment BOP. Their new presentation just popped and I’ll circle back in tomorrow’s bullets with anything salient. Producing more than the Turkish National Oil Company … that’s probably a 10 year goal. Company just over 2,000 bopd now. Turkey as a whole just over 40,000 bopd. Still, it’s the kind of thing that gets investors amped, especially in these “apply tech and capital to bypassed plays of antiquated/underexploited NOC assets.”

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Comments from the HW conf….

    · Sentiment Universally Tepid: Every energy investor we met with was decidedly unenthusiastic about near term prospects, particularly in oil services. One seasoned buy sider characterized the tone of the conference with the phrase, “I’m bored with the sector”.

    · Reluctant Consensus: Almost everyone we spoke with recognized challenging near-term dynamics for natural gas and complacent approval of oil market fundamentals. Most investors expressed hope that the prevailing consensus would probably facilitate an opportunity for a bounce in the gas market.

    · Where’s Aubrey?: Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon reportedly articulated a relatively somber view of the natural gas picture. Some investors speculated that CHK has already begun to proactively lay down rigs. McClendon’s non-attendance at the CHK dinner Monday night and subsequent departure from the conference was one of the most popular topics of conversation.

    · Independent E&Ps Have Blinders On: Of the companies we met with, only one discussed the possibility of slowing down the 2010 drilling program to focus on opportunistic acreage acquisitions. Given that CHK likely sets the tone for U.S. independents, it would not surprise us to see several management teams reverse course by laying down rigs within the next few months.

  6. 6
    ram Says:

    I can’t believe that CIGX can hit $3 before this morning is over. I wonder if there was a short term price objective or you buy it and hang on? This almost reminds me of when the mo-mo guys got a hold of DRYS a couple of years ago.

  7. 7
    elijahwc Says:

    GDP – relook at the chart takes me all the way back to Jan of ’05. What a give back and the 5th time GDP’s been here. Assuming that the wheels stay on the GDPAN will pay big.

    also, on the wires:

    CIGX Star Scientific: Iroquois Capital Management discloses 7.8% stake in 13G (2.64 )

    I think these are PE folks and new filers?

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Iroquois is a hedge fund run by a very smart (but very nasty and tempermental) guy. He can be quick to pull the trigger (and trash the stock price) when he wants out. That said, this is not his First Rodeo with CIGX. He played the jury trial too (and lost). He sold. But has circled back and bought in for the actual operational upside of CIGX. He’s been back for a while… but recently bought enough shares that he had to file a disclosure form. And he is a VERY private guy. Filing a disclosure statement must have been a PAINFUL and well-thought-out decision for him. Guess that makes it “significant.” And that’s the story there.

  9. 9
    ram Says:

    Thanks eli…to buy and hang or not…that is the question.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — sell 1/2. let the rest ride. you will then 1/2 love or 1/2 hate me… so it should balance out.

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TechTrader is 60/40 SHORT for today.

    HeadTrader points out that there were good earnings from BBY, QCOM, and LULU… banks keep performing. But he adds this prayer “pls give me volatility.” With the relentless Melt Up, no one is trading. No one is chasing. HT is getting bored.

  12. 12
    Nicky Says:

    Good morning.

    Healthcare bill hits a snag, WSJ reports The last piece of President Barack Obama’s remake of the nation’s health-care system hit a parliamentary snag early Thursday in the Senate, and appears likely to be headed back to the House for one final vote before becoming law, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said. The legislation makes a handful of changes to the sweeping health bill, including bolstering government subsidies to help individuals purchase health insurance and closing a politically unpopular gap in prescription-drug coverage under Medicare, the health insurance for seniors. The measure has been debated in the Senate since Tuesday, and Democratic leaders had hoped to conclude Senate action Thursday. But Reid spokesman Jim Manley said Republicans have found two minor provisions in the bill—totaling no more than 16 lines—that are likely to be subject to procedural challenges on the floor, and ultimately struck from the legislation. If successful as expected, the Republican challenges would modify the bill, requiring it to be sent back to the House for consideration again.

  13. 13
    Nicky Says:

    Many stocks opening up flat despite big futures run up. When you start seeing that kind of exhaustion it should be taken seriously as sign of a roll over.

    Elliott wave count – if it rolls over here then it was the perfect target for the B leg up of the ABC. It really can’t go much higher than here for this count. What we would now expect to see is this morning’s spike up reverse quickly.

    If this does not happen then likely we are in v up and heading towards 1189. The 45 day cycle is going to start to look pretty extended soon.

    For all those watching nat gas there are cycles in play which call for a low this week. Keep the faith!

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    thanks for the mrkt updates, Nicky. Especially like the comment on nat gas. I think you hear one PEEP from CHK about curtailing some production, and nat gas will start to move up.

  15. 15
    bill Says:

    OIL UP 30 CENTS

    NG now has a 3 dollar handle at 3.99

  16. 16
    bill Says:

    a suprise withdrawal would get the ng market back up… i think

  17. 17
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    two of the biggest SHORT targets in nat gas are MMR and GDP. just something to keep in the back of one’s mind.

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    from an energy-only trading desk…

    HK –interest is picking up and longer term investors are starting to take a deeper look at it here… nibbling a bit at these levels.

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nat Gas rose 11 Bs last week

  20. 20
    bill Says:

    Expectations for Thursday’s reported build are:

    z =15 to – 5

    Dow Jones Survey 11 Bcf
    Bloomberg 9 Bcf
    Citi 8 to -2 Bcf
    First Enercast 2 Bcf
    robry825 0 Bcf

    Last year -1 Bcf
    Five year average -37 Bcf

    last year -1 on colder weather so an injection will be hard to do

    what happens if its + 50???

  21. 21
    bill Says:

    ng at 3.98 pre report

  22. 22
    elijahwc Says:

    Think what you may of him, Jim Cramer has an absolutely brilliant piece out that stems from his interview of Rep Maurice Hinchey (Dem-So.NY)on his show which I happened to catch. This doe eyed red dot ashes on the forehead empty headed politico is exactly what is driving gas prices into the dirt.

    Since RealMoney Silver is a subscription service and I didn’t want to get Z a call from a copywrite attorney while on vacation, here is where you can find a copy. You will have to register but it is free.

    http://www.optionmonster.com/news/article.jsp?page=commentary/in_the_news/cramer_another_misguided_political_attack_on_nat_gas_43763.html

  23. 23
    bill Says:

    came in +11

  24. 24
    bill Says:

    ng at 4.03 now

  25. 25
    bill Says:

    east area – 10
    producing + 19
    west +2

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — great pre# summary. Thank you!

  27. 27
    1520sbroad Says:

    #20 – great summary – i always try and put that together in my head before 10:30 on thurs.

  28. 28
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: JPMorgan started coverage of ATPG with neutral today.

  29. 29
    bill Says:

    saw it on a message board so the work wasnt mine but ty

    i like to see it as well

    No one will make money at 4 bucks so production /drilling should drop again
    The wild card is partner promotes and getting land HBP

    growth for growth sake doesnt make sense to me. Wall street darling swn seems exposed to me

  30. 30
    tomdavis12 Says:

    28 Price target $22

  31. 31
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    MLP: Of course Z, MLP have growth potential while WHX has no growth potential. Then again MLP have alot of debt, while WHX has no debt. So pick your poison.

  32. 32
    BossmanG Says:

    Some CIGX vol analysis at http://livevol.blogspot.com/

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    good find, BossmanG. The article from last year on the lawsuit did the best job I have seen on laying out what the lawsuit was all about (for those who want the interesting history here). The next chapter in CIGX history will be written by actual product sales. The lawsuit is in appeal, but is no longer the central focus. As far as what to understand about CIGX operationally, one need only read the first couple of paragraphs of their 10-K, the PR from Nov 4th last year, and the list of who are the current holders and what are their backgrounds. It is truly “speculative” at this point. But it is educated speculation, not day-trading speculation, that makes this stock worth taking a serious look at.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Re 31 – not mutually exclusive to me. And on a growth per share or per unit basis, I bet most MLPs are flat to lower. I’m just saying that right now, we are entering another season of “oh, oh, I gotta buy something because reserves are cheap and I have to do a secondary because I don’t have cash on hand” … like LINE the other day. I like LINE just fine but I think things like WHX may see price appreciation as they are declining predictably and don’t have the worry of dilution.

  35. 35
    bill Says:

    dry bulk fans

    here is the latest presentation by navious

    NM. The ceo owns 20 % of the shares and has not diluted shareholders like others in this space

    Ebitda is growing due to recent acquisitions and she insures the long term charters (like credit default insurance) guaranteeing the revenue stream.

    I was hoping for a pull back to the 5’s .

    Im not in it but watching it closely.

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9Mzc2MTF8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1

  36. 36
    bill Says:

    the dow pushing 11,000 and im not making money waaaaaaaaaaaa

  37. 37
    Nicky Says:

    Spain asking for help now. Does anyone care?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spain-Greece-call-for-bailout-apf-1325706734.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nicky — do you think the euro holds together? I rather thought it was doomed from the start. Surprised it held together this long. But, I’ve been wrong PLENTY of times before, when it comes to Europe.

  39. 39
    Nicky Says:

    re 38 – yes although I suspect its going much lower.

  40. 40
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z: I am taking as a GROUP, there are individual exceptions, MLP are fairly valued. They also live on credit and the last few years they have not been able to tap the credit and equity markets. They are starting to catch up for lost times. Plus the GP, because of IDRs, want their LP’s to grow bigger.

    I don’t think the statement, ” I bet most MLPs are flat to lower on a per unit basis” is accurate. Some maybe, but newly issued MLP, before the IDR splits, GP, and many of the pipelines that is probably not true.

    But it is true that MLP and royality trusts are two different animals. There is alot to be said for a nice clean trust, with a good parent, nice properties, no equity issance or debt.

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OK… it’s too quiet. I could throw one more penny stock name out there… and it might completely disabuse anyone of the notion that I was operating as a sane investor. But adding a few, small, call-options-that-don’t-expire to an otherwise sane portfolio is not always as crazy as it sounds. Anyone game? (wcoaster, no snickering….)

  42. 42
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nicky — i guess it’s not possible to go backwards to country currencies anymore, at this point. But agreed, it’s going lower.

  43. 43
    john11 Says:

    Sure go for it Bop …lol

  44. 44
    ilikericky Says:

    re #41 I am game,what is wrong with buying a call option with no decay.Yes you can lose everything I know that.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    MLP comment only pertains to the upstream guys. Could care less about pipelines and midstreams, not my bag. I will look at per share production of the MLP upstreams on an absolute and per share basis when I get back but since most barely grow and are issuing shares to grow I am going to stick with my comment.

  46. 46
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    No tears and no whinging if playing this game… it’s for lunch $$ only. But stock could go to $1.50 or $2.00 on earnings over the next year (and, yes, there will be earnings). Or it could jump higher than that on a possible event they have been working on for over 2 yrs. Downside is 15c.

    PAYD

    (I can hear wcoaster ROTFL right now… but, the end story here hasn’t been written yet, albeit the wait has been long.)

  47. 47
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Plenty of street cred here for you.

  48. 48
    Nicky Says:

    The higher this market goes the more concerned I am that this will all end badly. Bernanke continues to say they won’t raise rates and the stock market seems to be taunting him. If we are recovering why the heck aren’t they raising?

    There was a trader on CNBC earlier – can’t remember his name – but quietly spoken sane kind of guy – said most his family were connected to real estate in one way or another and that the real estate market is absolutely dead. He said they go into work each day and do nothing. I have spoken to some local agents here and they say the same thing. The construction guys I know still can’t get work. They say in fact in the last month its got even quieter.
    So what do we have – a stock market bubble in the making?

  49. 49
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Well then you could be right because outside of ENP I don’t follow the upstream guys and don’t really care anything about them.

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nicky — I know you are in the homebuilding business. So I know you know exactly what you are talking about there. I’d like to add my 2c, tho. I used to cover the homebuilding sector at a mutual fund for years. Met with every single publicly-traded (and private debt issuer) company in the past. To a person, the number 1 driver of homebuying is “job formation and security.” Number 2 is demographics (which can eventually overwhelm #1, given enough time). Other than the US Govt hiring 16,000 more IRS agents, who is hiring? Until we see private sector job demand creep back into the market, people stay put. Don’t you agree?

    It’s all about jobs.

  51. 51
    ram Says:

    Paid, Inc.???

  52. 52
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — yes.

  53. 53
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I have to run out to a mtg. Keep up the postings, it helps z enjoy his vacation.

  54. 54
    elduque Says:

    Bill- re drybulkers. A couple of weeks ago I wrote about PRGN ceo stating that he still expected to see a drop in the price of the ships, due to large supply still coming to the market. He admitted that he was surprised the price had still held up.

    Do you have any thoughts. You were sure right a couple of years ago.

  55. 55
    Nicky Says:

    BOP re # 50 – I absolutely agree with you regarding jobs and was really alluding to that when I was mentioning the guys I know in construction saying they could not get work.
    I fully expect next weeks non farm payrolls number to be good due to the Census hiring. However this is temporary and will likely only reflect in the next two months data. I also think that its well and truly priced into the market! Last month the market went up on wishy washy jobs numbers and I expect them to sell the good news this month which of course will be contrary to expectations. Has anyone noticed that non farm payrolls will be released next Friday even though the stock market is closed!

  56. 56
    Nicky Says:

    Another comment from the same trade re housing. The tax credits have made no difference at all.
    He also said the mortage relief plan has officially been a disaster. 96% of the people it was intended to help have not been helped and if it carries on at the same pace it will only be working by the time Obama’s grandchildren buy houses!

    Its distinctly possible imo that the housing market leads everything down again.

  57. 57
    elduque Says:

    best site that I know of for keeping track of real estate, mortgages, etc. is http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

  58. 58
    Nicky Says:

    Support is now at 1173/74 SPX. We would have to take out 1166 to turn this more bearish.

  59. 59
    jat Says:

    BOP– did HW send out those conf comments? I didn’t see them this morning.

    I am boarding my plane back to NYC in ten minutes, thankfully. What a long, depressing grind of a week. But at least I’m not bored with the sector!

  60. 60
    Nicky Says:

    France, Germany reached Greece agreement, French official says – Bloomberg

    Greek pact includes IMF funds.

  61. 61
    Nicky Says:

    Santelli (thank goodness he is back) gives he Treasury auction a D!

  62. 62
    Nicky Says:

    Why would they buy treasuries when they are making 1 percent a day in stocks.

  63. 63
    VTZ Says:

    RE 61/62: My love for Santelli is undying.

    Also, why on earth anyone wants to buy long term us treasuries is beyond me. I’m amazed they’ve held up this well to be honest. That is the biggest bubble and biggest trainwreck yet.

  64. 64
    Nicky Says:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/36034856

  65. 65
    elduque Says:

    Nicky where did you have support for Natural Gas. I didn’t like Jerome’s 2 level

  66. 66
    VTZ Says:

    10 year yields are going well above the 4% that Gross suggests in that article in things keep going at this rate. I can tell you that much without flinching or breaking a sweat. Maybe 4% in a couple months?

  67. 67
    Nicky Says:

    Mortgage delinquencies up 21% – great economic recovery lets rally another thousand points.

  68. 68
    Nicky Says:

    VTZ I am watching 4.77% on 30-year, 4.80 breakout not too far away… Most bullish chart out there right now long-term, is to buy interest rates, they have nowhere to go but up.

  69. 69
    Nicky Says:

    Elduque. I suggested earlier in the week that 3.8 should hold. I still think its ripe for reversal.

  70. 70
    elduque Says:

    thank you

  71. 71
    Nicky Says:

    1.33 on the euro just given way. pound is in trouble too.

    SPX needs to stay above 1174 to keep the intraday trend up.

  72. 72
    Nicky Says:

    Trichet out with some very negative comments on the bailout of Greece.

  73. 73
    DrLink Says:

    Re 68 With rising rates going forward do you agree TBT is a good bet?

  74. 74
    Nicky Says:

    DrLink – I would say so however I haven’t looked at the chart for TBT. I am looking at the 112 level on the 30 yr T Bond which would be the breakdown level.

  75. 75
    Jerome Blank Says:

    SSN…not doing much today, but is has the cutest consolidation triangle, really nice formation and it has reversed back into X’s after the recent all time low…all in all, very little risk here…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  76. 76
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jat — the HW comments came from the Boys at Madison Wms.

  77. 77
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nicky — #61 Santelli is by far the best commentator on CNBC. Tells it like it is.

  78. 78
    RMD Says:

    ONGC Seeking Canadian Oil Sands Assets. Oil & Natural Gas Corp., India’s biggest energy explorer, is seeking to buy oil-sands assets in Canada, three people familiar with the matter said. ONGC is currently evaluating the finances of a Canadian field, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are preliminary. The explorer is considering buying an asset that can produce about 10,000 barrels a day of heavy oil, worth at least $1 billion, two of the people said. (Source: Bloomberg)

  79. 79
    Nicky Says:

    five small waves off the top. May see a small bounce here and then down she goes. It feels like Trichet threw a spanner in the works.

  80. 80
    tomdavis12 Says:

    IOC +6% ?

  81. 81
    elduque Says:

    Hi Nicky – down to where?

  82. 82
    Nicky Says:

    Philip Manduca on CNBC at the moment. He is extremely interesting savvy guy. Long gold. Long dollar but only short term. Says watch for SPX to break 1150 and 10 yr to go above 4 (as per VTZ earlier) for signs the bear is back. He says the Eurozone is a disaster with Trichet calling the Greeks crooks. But he also said its only a question of time before the spotlight is turned back on the USA which has a far bigger problem.

  83. 83
    Nicky Says:

    Elduque – I am not ready to turn super bearish just yet. A move down may only last into early next week. That said it could cover some ground. Watch for 1166 to break and we hopefully will then see a test of the 1150 – 55 level.

  84. 84
    rseidman Says:

    Is there any news to explain the drop in EXXI? Thanks, Bob

  85. 85
    Nicky Says:

    Elduque just to compound things there is still the possibility we could see a triangle play out here which would limit the downside. I am sorry to be evasive but its a challenging EW count right now as there are several ways a bearish correction could play out.
    We have GDP and consumer sentiment in the morning.

  86. 86
    ram Says:

    It is tough in energy land! Who yelled fire in the energy auditorium?

  87. 87
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    rseidman — nothing specific to EXXI that I know of. Just a general turning away from the energy sector and EXXI is a higher beta member of that group.

    It is one of the oiliest members of the group, to. So the plunge in nat gas below the psycho-$4 level shouldn’t affect is as much as it is. But on red days (in energy like this) there is not a lot of differentiation or thought going in to tossing out babies with bathwater.

  88. 88
    Nicky Says:

    Wow this is weak. We may even test 1166 into the close.

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Also, it’s “shoulder months” season. So heating oil usage dropping and nat gas storage moving up. If jobs would pick up a bit, might see some gains in gasoline. But, unless you see CHK announce some production curtailment, not a lot to get excited about in EnergyLand right now, it seems. That is the Bear point of view, anyway.

  90. 90
    rseidman Says:

    BOP: Thank you!

  91. 91
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Irritating to see EXXI getting tossed to the curb like it is today. But as well as we know the story on this board, have to keep in mind that most energy investors still have barely heard the name, much less figured out that it is a cheap stock with hedged, oily production, spending within cash flow, upside from a fully-funded low-risk exploration and exploitation program, and significant upside from it’s participation in the Ultra-Deeps. Only fly-in-the-ointment is that EXXI’s properties are concentrated around the Louisiana GoM Shelf. So hurricane season is a risk that comes with that territory.

  92. 92
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI…trading right at trendline support, very easy to manage here

  93. 93
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Going to have to do some balance sheet and cash flow work on GDP. Convertible debt looking better all the time.

    Anyone have the SouthCoast report on GDP?

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — thanks!!

  95. 95
    milepost_43 Says:

    TGA….about a 10% move today on VOL….story getting out…..some more “catalyst”–good I hope–coming by May 1……

  96. 96
    elijahwc Says:

    Opps one of the dogs, TRGL implodes at speed with volume. May be more than market conditions. Searching now.

  97. 97
    Nicky Says:

    I suspect even if the GDP is good tomorrow this market gets sold. SPX closing on support surprise surprise.

  98. 98
    elijahwc Says:

    House keeping:

    Was able to buy some GDPAN @35.50 today so I’m officially adding to the dog pound.

    Another article on the politics of fracking.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2523659520100325

  99. 99
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    ELI: how about some of my stuff today: all down — TRGL (14.32%), VQ (9.80%), ATLS (7.88%)

    Nice day in those names — lol

    That is why one has a portfolio instead of one or two or three stocks, particularly when you get older — lol.

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market Strategist —

    “Very, Very Bad.”

    Jean Claude Trichet certainly has a way with words. The European Central Bank President did not pull any punches when expressing his view on the prospects for having IMF involvement in an aid package for Greece. Trichet’s stated, “If the IMF or any other authority exercises any responsibility instead of the Euro group, instead of the governments, this would clearly be very, very bad.” The EU’s political leadership showed what they thought of their top Central Banker’s view. Today kicked off “Merkel Madness,” that time of year when the EU’s political leadership filled out their brackets for the amount of help they want to beg for from the IMF. This “beggar thy neighbor” approach taken by Germany is one in which the haves are manipulating a situation to receive aid from the have-nots. The top 5 IMF members in order of Special Drawing Rights are: the United States 16.7%, Japan 6.2%, Germany 5.9%, France 5% and the U.K. 4.5%. The irony is that the two countries with best fiscal situation (by a pretty fair margin) on that list are Germany and France. It is still hard to comprehend how it is the IMF’s responsibility to ensure that Greece remains a member of the EU. Maybe the United States should lobby the IMF to bail out California.

    We cannot say whether Merkel’s motivations are politic, selfishness or just stupidity. It is so misguided we are wondering if it is a secret plot to weaken the Euro and boost the EU economies. Of course we are being facetious but that is how absurd the situation is. Greece is not the problem, it can be handled. The problem is that the dysfunctional structure of the EU has been exposed. If a small problem like Greece cannot be solved, imagine if and when a larger problem arises (investing in the U.S. is looking better and better every day). That is the essence of the EU problems – while the IMF can easily step in and handle the situation in Greece, it cannot do so when the next larger problem emerges. It is hard to see how Jean-Claude Trichet does not resign after today. The only problem is that he is the voice of reason and was correct in his assessment.

    As a result of the antics on the other side of the Atlantic, a nice U.S. equity market rally fueled by earnings news was stymied. After Trichet’s comments hit the newswires at 1:30 pm, the Euro broke down versus the Dollar, Treasuries caught a bid after two days of selling and the S&P 500 sold off (see charts below). The downside leadership in equities were the Energy and Materials sectors reacting to the Dollar strength. Note: the Head and Shoulders Tops pattern we were looking for in the Energy and Materials sectors are looking very probable. Even if the EU comes up with a responsible plan, the credibility of the leadership has been eradicated, and the market is well aware there is likely much more downside in the Euro and strength in the Dollar. (U.S. Treasury Secretaries over the past decade had it backwards, they should have been advocating a weak Euro instead of a strong Dollar.) Now that it appears that the market has again reached a level where Dollar strength exerts an influence, it will likely provide a modest headwind. Relative to the competition, the Dollar should be strengthening. On a positive note, it should help keep a lid on commodities but it will be up to the earnings and economic recovery to push equities through this headwind.

  101. 101
    Jerome Blank Says:

    A good number of the stocks we follow are right at critical P&F support points, CLR, CRZO, CXPO, EOG, KWK, NFX, RRC…two specific highlights tonight are BHI and PXP, both went on fresh P&F sell signals today…however they are both sitting on their respective P&F bullish trendlines which represent major longer term support…if you are in either of these stocks please check out the comments…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  102. 102
    PackMan Says:

    Hope you are having a good time Z !

    Beach Bars suggest that you are ….

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