Tuesday Post

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Still on vacation. Thanks for keeping me updated yesterday.



98 Responses to “Tuesday Post”

  1. 1
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Top Stories from Overnight

    Today’s Top Stories
    European leaders continue to posture re Greece with 1) ECB’s Trichet suggesting that Greece could receive loans from its euro-zone partners under certain conditions (in WSJ), 2) Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou saying he wants a “European” solution to Greece’s debt crisis (seemingly backing away from signals it may seek out IMF assistance), 3) Germany’s foreign minister rejecting a charge by Greece’s deputy prime minister that Berlin is reluctant to help Athens because its exporters and banks are profiting from a debt crisis that has hit the euro (Reuters) at the same time that 4) the ECB signals some concession on Greek debt (namely that it may continue accepting it as collateral in its liquidity ops, even if it gets downgraded further – FT); 5) European Union President Herman Van Rompuy is seeking to strike an agreement on an aid mechanism for Greece before the start of an EU summit this week (Bloomberg)

    Also in Europe, Spanish Finance Minister Elena Salgado reached an agreement on cost-savings measures with the finance chiefs of Spain’s regional governments (WSJ), an example of the type of agreements that are raising concern that strict austerity measures in Europe threatens a double dip recession in the region and are leading some (on Bloomberg) to say the ECB may be slower than previously expected to withdraw monetary stimulus.

    China – a lot of focus on FX with yuan forwards inching higher (although off their highs) following conciliatory remarks from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that China did not want “trade and currency wars” with the United States. Wen added that China’s trade surplus has been narrowing in recent months and turned into an US$8 billion trade deficit in the first third of March (recall Commerce Minister Chen Deming said Sunday that China may post a trade deficit for all of March).

    Japan’s government to face large fund shortage in ‘11/’12 according to a report in the Nikkei – Japan’s government may need to issue more bonds or drop some spending plans as it faces a shortage of up to 7 trillion yen ($78 billion) in funds in the year to March 2012. Reuters

    Governments around the world are on a “charm offensive” w/the largest SWFs (sovereign wealth funds) to help insure there is a ready market for all the debt being dumped on the market this year. FT

    Airline update – February ATA RASM, released Monday night, was negatively impacted by weather (as indicated by carrier disclosures in recent weeks). Additionally, updated guidance from AMR was slightly disappointing, suggesting a Q1 loss wider than consensus (J Baker)
    AOS – announced that it expects to significantly exceed analysts’ first quarter earnings estimates. The company projects its first quarter results will be between $.95 and $1.00 per share (the St is at 0.68). The company increased its full-year earnings forecast to $3.20 and $3.40 per share (the St is at 3.145). “Both of our business segments are experiencing higher sales volumes than we originally expected,” commented Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Paul W. Jones. “In addition, the results of our extensive cost reduction efforts and continuing strength in water heater sales in China will benefit the first quarter.”

    SP500 technicals – Next resistance rests at the 1177 Jan-Feb Head and Shoulders bottom obj, and 1182 Feb channel high.

    Tech update – a lot of memory headlines overnight. Toshiba said it would start construction on an additional flash memory facility at its central plant in Japan (it had put this plant on hold during the financial crisis). On the DRAM side of things, MU joined Samsung and Powerchip in saying it had no intention of ramping up capacity in ’10 (which should be positive for pricing). DRAM Exchange has a pos. report out on the DRAM industry, saying it is headed for a three year period of profitability (starting in ’10). ISSI issued an upside profits preannouncement last night. Away from memory, Acer is bullish on H2 demand trends due to stronger corporate spending outlook. Re PALM, Electronista is reporting that Verizon sales staff will stop actively promoting the Palm Pre Plus at its retail locations before the end of March, according to a Verizon source speaking with the Examiner. There are a couple major earnings to watch tonight in tech land w/ADBE and JBL.

    Credit Update – The positive market reaction to the healthcare legislation is a reminder of the value investors place on certainty. There are two large uncertainties overhanging large Bank credit at the moment: 1) the provisions of Financial reform legislation and its chance of implementation, and 2) potential downgrades from the rating agencies of large banks if Financial reform is enacted. S&P and Moody’s have both published reports outlining their arguments for potential downgrades if financial reform passes.

  2. 2
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit Market rallying this morning as the “Melt UP” of the stock market continues.

    Lots of money still on the sidelines or in corporate bond funds. With the uncertainty of Obamacare behind us for now, the market will be looking forward to seeing an economic rebound. More and more, hearing small companies talk about receiving small orders for capital goods. Hence, the Melt Up.

  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    from HT — “CCL says bookings are ahead of last year for the rest of the year and they reinstated the divd… not too shabby”

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TechTrader missing.

    HeadTrader saying he would “buy, buy, buy”

    I know I sound like a cheerleader this morning… lots of reasons not to be. But this is what a Melt Up feels and looks like. I will drop the pom-poms now and back away slowly……

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TechTrader Tea Leaves point to a 55/45 SHORT trade as the best odds for today.

    HeadTrader pointing out that we get Existing Home Sales at 10am this morning. With all the snow in Feb, can’t imagine they are “very good.” Bloomberg survey expecting a 1.1% decline in sales to 5.0M. HeadTrader would use any sell-off in the mrkt on those numbers to buy.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Still no Operational Update from MMR. Somewhat odd. Wonder what it is they are waiting to do or hear, before putting out an update. Mrkt HATES uncertainty.

  7. 7
    bill Says:

    does anyone know the link to howard weil

  8. 8
    andy Says:

    bill – not webcast

  9. 9
    andy Says:

    bop – any reports from last night’s dinner??

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — no updates yet.

  11. 11
    elduque Says:

    RE dinner- I hear that they had steak, garlic mashed potatoes, creamed spinach and chocolate mousse for dessert.

    Good morning to you all.

  12. 12
    wcoaster Says:

    AEZ finished their Tong Trust well – not in BEXP league, but at least it is a reasonable well. Should kick back up over $6 today.

  13. 13
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elduque — pretty funny!

    wcoaster — hey! you have been spot on with that pick for a long time. Do you have an updated price target? That has been an awesome pick.

  14. 14
    andy Says:

    elduque – no appetizer?

  15. 15
    wcoaster Says:

    on AEZ, it depends on whether their results are less than BEXP because it is their first well, or in a thinner part of the Bakken. But they have more wells planned, and if they can repeat a few times, I’m sure there will be upside.

  16. 16
    Nicky Says:

    market continued to go up on what I would say were lousy housing numbers – in particular the inventory numbers. 27% of purchases were cash which is extraordinarily high and points to investors buying.

  17. 17
    jy Says:

    PQ- PetroQuest Energy, Inc. said today that their bank group has completed its semi-annual re-determination of its borrowing base under its credit facility. As a result, the Company’s $100 million borrowing base has been reaffirmed. The Company currently has $10 million of borrowings outstanding on its revolving credit facility and is in compliance with the financial covenants under the credit facility. The next re-determination of the borrowing base is scheduled to occur before September 30, 2010

  18. 18
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    CNX has started a tender offer for the rest of CXG that it does not already own for $38.25. This is the second time that CNX has tried to fold CXG back into CNX.

    CXG has always been a real class company. It along with MCF (before the gold mines — lol) has been the chicken way to play energy in general and nat gas in particular. I am sorry to seem them go, though the extra money is nice so I guess I can’t complain — lol.

  19. 19
    Jerome Blank Says:

    BOP…CIGX breaking out of its daily consolidation triangle on big vol…bought a bit at the 20 SMA pullback yesterday…great find thank you…

  20. 20
    bill Says:

    exxi slides for weil


  21. 21
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — CIGX is going to be a volatile puppy, until we get some of the solid news we are waiting for. But I think most people who own this (and understand the enomority of the opportunity) aren’t selling. So, supply of shares just drying up. That said, if it drops back, I will consider that a Christmas Present and add some more.

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — thanks! I went thru those EXXI slides yesterday. Overall impression is that EXXI is in a great place. Good hedges, great cash flow, perfect balance of exploration/exploitation drilling program. And — so importantly — OILY with no need for outside funding. Fell for the stock all over again.

  23. 23
    ram Says:

    What solid news and drops back to to what price zone?

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — I am looking for CIGX to finalize their marketing/distribution agreement with inVentiv (VTIV). That will launch a test marketing in the Virginia area. After 90 (?) days, mngmt will have enough data and feedback to plan production and roll out on a national level. Their product works. And has potential far past just the “smoking cessation and smoking substitute” market. But, it has been a long time coming… and the company got sidetracked for many years in a legal battle with RJReynolds. That legal battle is just a minor part of the much bigger story now.

  25. 25
    choices Says:

    #22-and the EXXI 10’s keep on keeping on-last quote 102.5/103. thanks BOP (again).

  26. 26
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #19 CIGX…meaning to say tracking on the 30 min, 20 period sma…
    #23 ram…consider $2.06 to $2.10 on any intraday pullback

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — thanks for that bond update. Those bonds were some of the best risk/return investments in the Junk Bond World that I have seen in a loooong time. Glad you were able to pull the trigger there. Those secutities were very mis-priced and mis-rated. The Poster Child for $20 bill on the sidewalk.

  28. 28
    ram Says:

    Thank you and thank you.

  29. 29
    Nicky Says:

    spx having trouble taking out the 1169 area. We may have a triangle forming for wave iv.

  30. 30
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader said that the inability to make a new high is not a good sign.

  31. 31
    ram Says:

    Why the stampede for CIGX this morning?

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — no idea. But I know several of the largest holders and none are looking to sell any time soon. Think it just reached the point where selling dried up.

  33. 33
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE#31…ram… here is a CIGX 30 min chart…this was too good to pass up yesterday…I’ll leave it up for a few minutes as it’s not an energy stock…

    page #2…


  34. 34
    Nicky Says:

    If SPX is working on a triangle then it is likely to only go back to about 1155. If its working on a flat for wave iv then it could go to between 1141 and 1151.

  35. 35
    RMD Says:

    I heard CIGX moving on an alzheimer’s drug. I’ll inquire further.

  36. 36
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD — that is one of the potential uses for their compound, refered to in their 10-K. One of the largest holders of the stock runs a center for aging in Florida…

  37. 37
    Nicky Says:

    CNBC now touting Dow 11000. Oh whoopee!

  38. 38
    skimo Says:

    JB thanks for charts, voted

  39. 39
    RMD Says:

    36; now that’s a nice tidbit; I haven’t paid any att’n to stock this time around as it was very imp’t to have the “correct” cost basis last time around and $2.25 is not very close to $.75….

  40. 40
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #38, skimo, thank you…

    I’ve made a few new changes to the charts…I’ve expanded the note section to add a list of all the stocks we are currently following with the current P&F signal status and the date of the last update for that particular stock…I had a little trouble formatting the information so hopefully it’s easy to follow…for some reason this appears at the bottom of the first page…I’m not sure how to get it to the top…

    I think this addition may be helpful, becase not only can I more easily track which charts have not been updated, but folks will not need to look thru everything if they not following a chart…

    Please feel free to provide any feedback positive or negative, it’s a work in progress…I would also appreciate knowing if I am missing any stocks that should be covered or if anyone has any suggestions for changes…thanks much…


  41. 41
    zman Says:

    You can also use the Chartbbook dropdown menu at the top right of JB’s site if you are just interested in a particular name

  42. 42
    elijahwc Says:

    CIGX: it’s the toy de jour of the fast money crowd.

    Here’s the story which will help explain the action last week as this young man is part of the Cramer Street.com cadre.

    FWIIW, he sat in my office about three years ago and pitched me on a fund of funds dedicated to PIPES. Rest assured that he and buds are active in the name and getting loud about it. = danger if not real. Still, an interesting story.


  43. 43
    elijahwc Says:

    XCO out on the tape saying this old story about to become reality:


  44. 44
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Time out — i have never used a single sell-side report on CIGX. I have been involved in the name (for better or worse) for almost 5 yrs. It is real. The lawsuit was a distracting sideshow that took way too much time and management attention. The real show is about to begin. (I know I sound like a hypster, so this is the last time I will mention this non-energy stock. For whatever reason, I just thought I would share this pick on a slow Friday. Sorry z, I am not a penny-stock scammer… don’t want to sound like one).

    Back to your regularly-scheduled program.

  45. 45
    ilikericky Says:

    BOP thanks for CIGX.We neeed some variety.I remember on this board been given CENX.Turned out just fine.

  46. 46
    elijahwc Says:

    BOP you are not a hypster and I feel as I should request forgiveness. I was simply relating the cause of action last week and a tidbit about the author.

    Interesting that you believe their science to be real and I will take a research position on that rec alone as I have owned all the ‘old timers’ names from ELN to MDVN. Alzheimer’s it’s a tough one.

  47. 47
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elijah — i did not mean that as a swipe at you, at all! Just worried that I went off into a non-energy topic on a slow friday. And I know z has worked long and hard promoting high quality research to keep the focus on this board on Energy.

    And thanks, ilikericky. But in the argument against me, CENX (which I also owned, small world) fit the parameters as it is an energy-driven business.

    P.s. I hope z isn’t choking on his Corona and lime as he reads this. This is truly a world-class site for the exchange of information. thanks, z.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Not at all BOP, just working up a water color of a nice jack up on the horizon.

  49. 49
    choices Says:

    Thanks, JB-excellent charts-voted
    some of these validation phrases are becoming a challenge to decipher.

  50. 50
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #49, choices, thank you…

  51. 51
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: I recommend you consider a Zman tshirt as an award to BOP for services above and beyond the call of duty in your absence. BOP has nothing to do with this. This all my own crazy idea. 🙂 🙂

  52. 52
    Patipati Says:

    I second TomDavis recommendation.

  53. 53
    Nicky Says:

    Many of the Dow stocks look to be showing signs of exhuastion but the smaller more speculative stocks look like they want to go higher.

  54. 54
    ilikericky Says:

    I third that recommendation.

  55. 55
    elduque Says:

    Whose BOP- No I fourth it.

    Jerome- any thoughts on NG.

  56. 56
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #55 elduque, do you mean natural gas or Novagold resources?

  57. 57
    elduque Says:

    Natural gas. Seems to be trying to put a base in. Although I guess we have to at least clear 4.18.

  58. 58
    rseidman Says:

    Jerome: Thanks for sharing you technical skills with us.
    I’ve been meaning to say this a long time ago.

  59. 59
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG…posted a 30 min chart…KOG breaking above a nice consolidation 30 min triangle…could be staging for a run at a test at the recent high…


  60. 60
    bondbuddha Says:

    JB, voted, thanks again for sharing your thoughts

  61. 61
    ram Says:

    I fourth that recommendation.

  62. 62
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis and friends… thanks! My current wardrobe is looking a bit shabby. Could use a spiffy new t-shirt. 🙂

    That said, everyone contributes so much to this investing community. It’s a high class spot to exchange ideas and make some $$.

  63. 63
    ram Says:

    Darn, I fifth that recommendation

  64. 64
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hey, wcoaster… didn’t you point out that AEZ was cheap this morning? Not only was that a nice call, but it was great timing.

    thx again for sharing your thoughts.

  65. 65
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Can’t you just hear the crowd go wild and the chants of BOP! BOP! BOP! fill the air. 🙂 😉 (just some more while Z is not around)

  66. 66
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — now you are just being a silly goose.

    Back to energy. Still haven’t gotten a recap of the MMR dinner last night. Think Our Man is busy with meetings today. Good stuff. Looking forward to getting the lowdown.

    EXXI presents tomorrow. Puzzling over the (continued) lack of an MMR DJ operational update. What are they waiting for???

  67. 67
    skimo Says:

    BOP BOP BOP BOP BOP-A-ann you got us rockn and a reelin BOP-A- Ann- with apologies to the Beach Boys but after reading 65 it just flew into my head- 🙂
    thanks for your work keeping the board interesting.

  68. 68
    jiveyjr Says:

    many thks for that DVN chart…good advice JB…voted; try to every day but forget from time to time

  69. 69
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #57 elduque…Nat Gas con’t futures went back on a P&F sell signal with the print thru $4.25…I added a P&F chart under “UNG-Nat Gas Futures” to keep them together…with the new sell signal I am being very cautious…check out the price objective ($2)…At this juncture, I think we need to wait for a well defined base…if I see anything material or anything that looks especially promising from a tchnical perspective I will post it immediately…

    RE: #58 rseidman, thank you much for the compliment…I appreciate it…

    RE: #60, bondbuddha…thank you…

    I 6th the vote for BOP’s t-shirt…


  70. 70
    Bob Says:

    Joining in the BOP Love Fest….Thanks for the head’s up during the dark days of March 2009 when CHK issued a huge amount of non callable bond with a 9.5% coupon. With capital gains to boot the YTW over 6 years will be around 11 – 12%!

  71. 71
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:


    Market Update – stocks picking up where they left things off on Mon – slow steady grind higher. Flow from the desk remains consistent – there isn’t a lot of chasing or panicked buying occurring on the upside, but there is a strong reservoir of buy demand on weakness. Shorts pretty inactive and not laying out fresh exposure given the strength; long sellers also not doing much. Breadth remains decent and we continue to see “rolling rallies” (i.e. tech was the big story of late ’09 while financials really started to outperform for most of early ’10; health care caught a bid last week and cap goods/industrials leading on the upside today). Investors viewing the calendar of being essentially clear until the 4/2 BLS report and the 4/12 AA earnings season kick-off. Bunch of headlines on the tape from the Geithner FNM/FRE testimony and re Greece, although nothing too incremental and it all seems like noise.

    Equity Sectors – industrials very strong, up ~0.6% overall w/capital goods up 0.85% and leading the market high. Seeing strength in likes of DE, CAT, CMI, JEC, etc. AOS, a small industrial (not really heavy industry but in the broader “industrial” umbrella), had an upside preannouncement this morning (AOS up ~5%). EMR had monthly orders out this morning and showed further improvement (stock up ~1%). Health care is flattish today and taking a bit of a breather following strong run of last few days (a group of US attorney generals just filed suit against the HC legislation). Retail is a laggard today – not a whole lot going on…the space is off 0.4% on the day (despite RCL and CCL both trading well after earnings). Tech is trading inline for the most part, up 0.3% on the day….once again semis are leaders (SOX up 1.5%+)….the SOX is (finally) setting fresh highs for this rally. Financials are trading inline w/the St although the larger money center banks are pretty strong (while regionals see profit taking). Energy stocks remain sluggish – they lagged on Mon and are underperforming again today (the energy space is off on a YTD basis, one of the weakest groups in the market). Materials are up ~0.6% and outperforming, being helped higher for a lot of the same reasons that the cap goods/industrials are trading well (demand optimism, ore pricing, etc).

    Best Performing SP500 stocks: TIE, CLF, ETFC, S, LXK, JCP, HAR, X, DELL, ATI

    Weakest performing: NBR, LH, STI, EXPE, AIG, PHM, CVH, DHI, YHOO, WLP

    Commodities: With the dollar weakening, all commodities are trading near their highs after the morning. Natural Gas is trading near $4.13, up 1.1%. Oil has fluctuated a bit, but is up ~0.75%. Copper has come off its morning lows and is up 0.3%. After failing $1100, earlier in the morning – Gold surged and is now trading near $1104.50, up 0.45%

    FX: USD (DXY) has come off its morning highs and is trading around $80.65 – flat into the afternoon. Dollar getting hit from its best levels as risk assets catch a bid and on back of this Bloomberg headline: “Germany, France Agree on IMF Aid for Greece, Official Says”

    Corp. Credit: Corp Credit is mixed with IG outperforming and HY in line (similar to yesterday. The 14 IG spreads are in 1 ½ bps while HY has gained 1/8 bps.

    Treasuries: Treasuries are mixed with the 2s outperforming ahead of the $44B auction @1pm and Yellen’s comments later today (Yellen, who is considered among the lead candidates to replace Kohn, is expected to give a relatively dovish update). The 2s have rallied to 95 bps while the 10s are unchanged from yesterday at 3.66%. The 2-10 year spread has steepened to 271 bps.

  72. 72
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — wow. Hadn’t thought about that bond for a while. That was a good one, for sure. Turns out “Buy when there’s blood in the streets” isn’t so easy to do. Nice reward on those NON-CALL bonds!!

    Saw a headline on bloomberg about some big money management firm looking to raise $1B for “distressed debt.” Seems some people really DO chase “last year’s returns.” High yield debt was the best place to be last year. This year, stocks will fluctuate, then end the year higher. Still have a lot of political IEDs that can knock us off the road for a while. But, this recovery is happening. And good stock picking is back to making us $$.

  73. 73
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #68…jivey, thank you, I appreciate it…

  74. 74
    elduque Says:

    Thanks Jerome

  75. 75
    Jerome Blank Says:

    PQ, Petroquest Energy, charts and comments added…


  76. 76
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: IMF help for Greece. Great. IMF is US once again bailing out everyone. When does this stop?

  77. 77
    occam Says:

    I’m BOPing too! Thanks for the many great posts.

  78. 78
    bill Says:

    here is sumpin to break up the day

    mmr weil slides


  79. 79
    john11 Says:

    23-Mar-10 15:27 ET

    American Oil & Gas target raised to $8 at Ladenburg Thalmann (6.30 +0.40)

    Ladenburg Thalmann raises their AEZ tgt to $8 from $6 after the Company reported today that its Tong Trust 1-20H Bakken well in Williams County, ND produced at 1,421 boe/d (1,114 bbl/d of oil and 1.8 mmcf/d of natural gas) in an early 24-hour rate. Firm says this is a strong volume, and increases their bullishness on AEZ shares. The firm says upcoming wells could be even better. The Company was not able to frac as much of the well’s horizontal section as it had originally planned, suggesting that it could see improved IP rates from subsequent wells

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — #76 i thought the same thing when i saw the IMF news. Great, Germany and France offer up the IMF to the rescue. How European of them (“Let’s all stick together and be one big happy family with this euro thing”). How BRAVE of them.

  81. 81
    apbd Says:

    BOP, you’re the greatest! You’re worth much more to us than a tee shirt.
    Bless you,

  82. 82
    rseidman Says:

    #81 I second that!

  83. 83
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #81…I third that one…

  84. 84
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    apbd — wow. thanks. But you guys are killing me! I just happen to know a lot of very smart people personally… several of whom are members of this board. Just try to pass along things that make sense… while trying to make sense of things. Everyone helps.

    Green Days are great. But keep in mind that Red Days are for Shopping!! So, keep your lists and target prices in mind. And do share, when you are thinking about doing something we can all benefit from. Thanks to everyone!

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT — saying that JPM and GS have standing not held order to sell a lot of spoos between 1165 and 1170… might be tought to get thru there, but if we do…..

    Nicky — how does this correspond to your thinking??

  86. 86
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    for those of you following BPT or HGT they have almost recovered from last friday;

  87. 87
    andy Says:

    paul – re BPT-HGT- thks for alerting us. was going to trade mon morn, but forgot. would have been a good one

  88. 88
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Paul — those were some pretty awesome 2 day moves in those oily and gassy trusts. You pointed it out at the time. Could you do that again… if it happens again? I missed it! Will have to add them to my Shopping List.

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — you still in USEC (USU)? I see the DOE is handing them $45mm.

  90. 90
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    API Inventory Report —

    Crude up 7,514 mbbl

    Gasoline down 81 mbbl

    Distillate down 2,534 mbbl

    Cushing Crude (OK) up 484 mbbl

  91. 91
    bill Says:

    89 must be another bill

    I was in useg at one time

    any comments on mmr presentation

  92. 92
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — went thru MMR presentation… what struck me is that MMR and EXXI are both producing about 30kBOE/d in 2010… but that EXXI is oil and MMR is nat gas. MMR is expected to earn $285mm in 2010 EBITDA, while EXXI should do about $400mm for the calendar year 2010. The number of shares per bbls of production for MMR is around 3.1 and it is 1.7 shares/BOE for EXXI. I need to throw in the rest of each company’s capital structure on an “as converted” basis. But, given that EXXI is almost 70% oil and MMR is about 80% nat gas, a the BOEs/share for EXXI are a lot more valuable than for MMR (given that everyone still uses a 6:1 ratio).

    MMR has a LOT of acreage on the GoM shelf (which is what has been goosing CPE lately). But they will also need some money and/or partner here in the near term.

    On a valuation basis, EXXI just seems to beat the pants off MMR. Need to go do that balance sheet thing. Perhaps that ‘spains some of the difference.

    Here’s a thought. MMR and EXXI merge. JimBob gets to be CoB and John gets to be CEO. JimBob gets oilier and John gets bigger. That would make both of them very very happy. Hmmmmm….

  93. 93
    Wyoming Says:

    This rig was in Nabors yard the hydraulic ram leak during the night.
    They come back and this what they found. This rig was ready to go out
    on the job. It twisted the sub beam bad.
    Looks kind of short on the driller’s side.


    A WFT rig.


    Posted some Merill Lynch research for the analytical types at the end of yesterdays post for those who dig the numbers.

  94. 94
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    guys i missed hgt and bpt too; i thought it would settle monday; no such luck.

  95. 95
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    at least i am long HGT with avg cost $9 a share; it was about the only thing i had cahones to buy last spring

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market Strategist
    [To highlight something I agree with… bond yields are collapsing — this will drive investors out of the relative safety of bonds and into stocks… sooner than later, it seems]

    Identity Crisis.

    It was another muted day in the U.S. equity market throughout most of the session. The European Union continues to contend with its identity crisis and war of words. The latest currency trend is that the Euro trades down versus the Dollar overnight during the first half of the European trading session, and then as the session approaches the close, the currency rebounds. We suspect the likely cause for the rally is short covering. At noon east coast time today, the headlines hit the wires that Germany and France agreed upon an IMF role in an aid package for Greece. The Euro briefly ticked up and then drifted lower throughout the balance of the U.S. trading day. The Euro has been clinging to the 1.35 support versus the Dollar. Now that the EU has chosen to play games, we expect the Euro to soon break down and head to the 1.29-1.30 level and test its 52 week lows versus the Dollar.

    Hungry Appetites?

    The story that caught the market’s attention today was the 10 year swap spread crossing into negative territory. The move is viewed as a combination of increased risk appetite in the marketplace, as well as the personification of the transfer of the private sector risk to the public balance sheet. The other story that caught traders’ attention was that credit default swaps on corporations that are viewed as leveraged buyout targets began to uptick. Increased risk appetites and the return of LBO’s in a slow tape were enough to prompt some short covering, resulting in nice gains for the averages and new 52 week highs. Nonetheless, although risk appetites are rising, today’s inversion of spreads continues to illustrate that although investors are willing to take risk, they are doing so in the relative safety of the bond market. We suspect there will be multiple stages of increased risk appetite and sometime in the next few weeks or months, we will see investors begin to shift towards equities.

    18 Month Highs, Again and Again.

    We keep talking about 52 week highs because they are an important technical signal. In actuality, each time the S&P 500 presses higher, it also registers an 18 month high. Despite the sharp advance, each new gain results in nothing more than being another 18 month high. In mid-November, the S&P 500 registered its first rally close above 1100. Today, the S&P 500 posted a rally high close of 1174. For the past 4 ½ months, the S&P 500 has been trying to erase one day’s worth of trading losses. Everyone will recall that those losses occurred on the day that the House voted down the initial TARP legislation. On September 29, 2008, the S&P 500 opened at 1209 and closed at 1106. There were bounces in the ensuing sessions that briefly took the S&P 500 to 1165, but quickly failed. Despite those who criticize the rally as going “too far too fast,” in 4 ½ months, the rally has thus far only recovered 66% of that single session’s lost ground.

  97. 97
    PackMan Says:

    T-Shirt for you BOP !


  98. 98
    bill Says:


    thats a marriage made in heaven

    thanks bop

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