Monday Morning And All Is Called Slightly Lower

102 thoughts on “Monday Morning And All Is Called Slightly Lower”

1. Analyst Watch: GMXR

   Canaccord cuts it to Hold
   Mor Keg cuts it to Underperf.

   TRGL on the tape with a bigger miss than expected but also says it’s process to find a partner for its uncoventional play should be wrapped up during 1H10.

2. Nice graphic/info on Davy jones..ty

3. moonbats beating up pxp

   http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Regulators-accused-of-lax-apf-219992621.html?x=0&.v=4

4. Analyst Watch: As Morgan Stanley was cutting APA and CHK they highlighted NBL, SWN, SU, and UPL as their top picks.

5. Bill – that orange area is the original 20,000 acre thought on Davy’s size. Now they are at 37K acres so it makes sense some of it would be on the unleased blocks and that they’d be quiet about it until at least Thursday.

6. Good morning.

   TechTrader at 50/50 today.

   HeadTrader not adding much color to that.

   Oil at $80 feels about right to me… high enough to support our US producers, low enough not to bother the economy. China still growing strong. Just don’t see us going back to $50… $60…

   Interesting that EXXI CEO Schiller has been on so many financial talk shows lately. Think he enjoys the lime light. But, it’s a lovely bedtime story and I like hearing it over and over again. Makes me sleep like a baby.

7. robin hood tax , lol good name

   take from the rich and give to the…politicians

   this is like the rake at the casino

   according to cnbc, will add 1.50 per share to buy and sale 1 share of google

   why dont they just confiscate all assets of every publicly traded company in the country and get it over with

8. HK sale data points…is it like real estate???…location location location
   $2.91
   March 15 (Reuters) – Petrohawk Energy Corp (HK.N) said it agreed to sell its interest in Terryville Field, Louisiana, to a private company for $320 million.
   The company said it estimated proved reserves of about 110 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (Bcfe) associated with its interest in Terryville Field, as of Dec. 31, 2009.

   $2.86
   Mar 1…the Company has completed a portion of an additional 2010 divestiture package. Two transactions involving properties in the Mid-Continent region have been closed for a sale price totaling approximately $20 million. These include, in total, approximately 7 Bcfe of estimated proved reserves and approximately 3 Mmcfe/d of production.

   $2.12
   HOUSTON, Sept. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Petrohawk Energy Corporation (NYSE: HK; “Petrohawk” or the “Company”) has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Permian Basin properties to a privately-owned company for total consideration of $376 million in cash. The sale is expected to close by October 30, 2009 and is subject to customary closing conditions and adjustments. The effective date of the sale is July 1, 2009.
   As of December 31, 2008, Petrohawk reported estimated proved reserves of 177 Bcfe for these assets. The properties are currently producing approximately 30 Mmcfe/d.

9. Bill – what’s that, a percentage of the value of the shares? Sheesh, what will cost to trade a Berkshire share?!

10. MP – yes. Cost of production, type of reserves, what else is going on in the area, upside remaining all factor in. Terryville is low cost, steady production, not huge exploration potential land.

    HK flat on the news, all else pretty red with oil which seems to be taking a little bit of profits in front of OPEC and with the higher dollar today.

11. A lot of the little names still holding up in here including KOG, AEZ (earnings tonight I think), GST (same), MHR.

12. CapitalOne Southcoast downgraded ATPG to Neutral from Add and maintained their tgt of $23 based on limited upside and risk that that ATPG will not achieve its 2010 production guidance of 12 MMboe+. Moreover, with ATPG shares up 14% on Friday and 53% over the past 1 1/2 months, the firm advise investors take some of their profits. Although the firm likes that ATPG will soon be bringing on what is expected to be a significant volume of unhedged oil production at Telemark, the firm feels that the shares are currently close to fully valued based on $75/bbl oil long term.

13. Z: Future NG prices: MS $5.45 ’10 $6.50 ’11. GS $5.50 ’10 & Citi $4.75 ’10 and they quote consensus for ’10 @ $6.00

14. Industrial output came out UP 0.1%, not the down 0.2% expected.

15. 13…consensus for ’10?? or ’11?? thanks

16. TPH saying HK’s Terryville sale at $320 mm was ahead of their thoughts of $250 to $300 mm. I’d agree that its a good price. Market again not in much of a mood to care. I wonder if we could divest ourselves of congress so we don’t have to worry about them sabotaging the market over the weekend each week.

17. Marcellus Shale sale…about $3.5/MCF I think

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1516921020100315

    NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) – CONSOL Energy Inc (CNX.N) agreed to buy Dominion Resources Inc’s (D.N) Appalachian natural gas properties for $3.48 billion in cash, giving CONSOL a leading position in the growing Marcellus Shale field.

    CONSOL, which produces coal and natural gas, said the purchase would boost its proved reserves of gas by more than 50 percent to about 3 trillion cubic feet and double its potential reserves to about 41 trillion cubic feet.

18. Crude cracked $80 as the dollar continued to rise. Next stop, whole dollar support at $79.

19. hk got a great price imho

    mcf trades at 2 per mcf

20. Bill – I think so. Just like a barrel is not a barrel is not a barrel, so goes the adage for an Mcf. And I don’t think anyone is disappointed with the sale price or at least that’s not what’s got the stock lower here … more just DC inspired market malaise.

21. Z: MLP — As a group, I think the MLPs are fairly valued. The AMZ is back over 305. The spread between the average MLP yield and the 10 yr Treasury is 344bps vs aver of 321bps. High yield spread is 487 vs 613 avg and investment grade corp spread is 183 vs 211 avg. So if you are looking for a bargain yield, forget it (lol). For sectors, GP and gathering and processing along with upsteam mlps have out performed AMZ, while refined products and NGL pipelines have under performed.

    Even though I don’t follow the upstream MLPs, I have noticed that EVEP and VNR have increased dist. So the upstream model seems to be working again.

    No MLP I know of could match the yield on MHX, esp for a 1/2 year hold. Even high growers, at current prices, probably could not beat, on a total return basis, your WHX (at least on a 1/2 yr period).

    My highest yield MLP (at current MKT prices) is MWE at 8.10% — so I am not in your league — lol.

22. MLP and inst ownership: I have read about the “large” inst interest (hedge funds) in the group. The fact is inst ownership peaked during the 3rd qt of 2007 at 35%. It has declined every quarter since and is now at 27%

    The GP sector is the highest at 65%. Part of this reason might be that XTXI is a C Corp.

23. Thanks BSJ – pretty sure for now I’ll just take down some WHX, haven’t poked any serious holes in it yet and I expect oil to remain buoyant for some time.

24. RE:23 Z, does WHX track oil or gas? If it tracks oil, then you might want to time your buys on oil weakness. If it does not track either, then you are on your own — lol.

25. Is anything green today..nibbled at mmr

26. re 25. Not much. KOG, AEZ, TAT

    BSJ – it’s tracking oil but it’s long term money so if I get in at $17 or $18 which has been the range of late as oil has fluxed $15, well I guess I don’t care that much for timing.

27. BEXP holding in well despite group and oil. Had a little move up late Friday and now down 3 cents is not so bad considering. They should have news out next week or the following week.

28. Z: like I said, I don’t follow the upstream MLP, however you still might want to look at ENP. It is more oily than LINE and ENP has a 10.50+ yield. Since EAC has been takeover, ENP has lost its protect sponsor and I bet the market does not know how DNR will treat ENP. Just a suggest for further study.

29. BSJ – thanks re 28.

30. MMR – getting slapped around, drifting down in a news vacuum.

31. More on ENP: 1.5 dist coverage, 1.6 debt/ebitda, 60% drawn on credit fact, and DNR needs to deleverage and says they will continue with drop downs. If this is the case then ENP will probably have to do an equity issuance.

    I have always though that the Brumleys where very protected of ENP and where large holders of it.

32. ENP: I have just talk myself to look into ENP — lol

33. Stocks bleeding lower, not a lot of rhyme reason. Seems that in most cases what has been up most lately is getting hit the hardest. Volumes look very light.

34. Two other oily MLP, and I really don’t know anything about them are LGCY and PSE. Both seem to have 9+ yield.

35. LGCY I track, didn’t really come away all that enthusiastically from the last couple of conference calls. VNR either for that matter after the last one. Didn’t answer questions well in my book.

36. capitulation in progress

37. hearing that the Volker Rule will be part of the “financial reform” package. mrk no likee

38. Z: what is your view on CNX buying D appalachian nat gas business? This makes CNX more and more a gasser and less of a coal business.

39. Morning all.

    Support on the SPX at 1140, 1135, 1127.

    Oil has support at 79.20.

40. MMR taking it on the chin. Probably some disappointment by some over no news again with a new week (see post for thoughts on that) and then it just cascaded with people selling because others have sold.

41. 38. I don’t have one, not really a name I track.

42. ROSE finally giving back some of the gains, I see no reason to jump back in just yet due to overall market conditions and a lack of near term catalysts. Lots of quick profits have been made in the stock of late, due for a pullback.

43. Re: 41. CNX’s acquistion puts them in front of HK per proved NG reserves. Will need secondary and other debt to finance. See slide 11:

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9Mjk1NTI0M3xDaGlsZElEPTM3MzAwN3xUeXBlPTI=&t=1

44. The line in the sand for further upside is SPX 1127. This would be the point where wave iv overlaps wave i and likely point to a deeper retracement. As long as we stay above that level then higher highs are likely still out there before a bigger correction.

45. Thanks much Nicky.

46. Good morning…the 30 min charts are all challenging this morning…but KOG is still holding the intraday trendline as I write…dialing out to the daily, most of our stocks are still fine from a daily perspective, there are a few concerns…DVN can’t find a foothold, now trying to find support at major P&F trendline and buy signal support which holds above $66, ie: DVN remians on a buy signal in o’s until a print of $66…

47. Thanks JB

48. Crude oil chart does not look too healthy either. We broke the uptrend line which came in about 81.50 on Friday. There is good support from 77 – 77.50.

49. anything new on TAT

50. Natural gas actually up two cents.

    TAT – nothing that I’ve seen, should be news around month end.

51. MMR & PXP rumor making the rounds… problems at Blueberry Hill (EXXI not in that one) and asset write down(s) at MMMR.

    That’s the rumor, according to several NY HFs, anyway.

52. Thanks much BOP. Re Blueberry Hill that was around a couple of weeks back as well and proved to be off target. It’s not a discovery well anyway, but an appraisal so it sounds like shorties.

    Wonder where they come up with an asset writedown? Wrong time of year for that. If they mean with BB Hill I’d again say that sounds bogus.

53. We should get more data from the La. O&G site on BB Hill soon so it won’t be long to tell if they are right or not.

54. Some people’s Evil Plans truly ARE evil.

    It’s an easy day to start and spread a rumor. Everyone is on edge.

55. NFX fell right back into the top of it’s previous range. Same for a lot of names so I see what JB is saying on his dailies comment above.

56. thought 51/52 was from mmr 10k?

    a friend sent me this:

    MMR 10-k is out with some incremental updates that also involve PXP….

    Hurricane Deep ran into problems at 18,450′ and is being abandoned. The timing of the redrill has not been determined yet. We estimated potential value of Hurricane Deep at ~$0.50/share to MMR. PXP is a partner with 30%
    Blueberry Hill is ongoing, however MMR did put a note in there that if the well isn’t sufficiently successful, their investment could be subject to a potential impairment (possible hint?). We currently have ~$1.00/share of potential value built in for Blueberry Hill. PXP owns a 47.9% WI in that well

    Nothing incremental on Davy Jones regarding logging results or core analysis. They are preparing to set production liner and temporarily abandon the well until special completion equipment can be designed and fabricated. The updip appraisal well should spud shortly and has a 29,950′ TD.

    Blackbeard East recently spud and is drilling below 1,000′ towards 29,950′ TD.

    1Q10 production is now forecast to be 190 MMcfe/d, ~10 MMcfe/d below previous guidance of 200 MMcfe/d due to unplanned downtime at certain fields.

57. thanks for the additional color, jat.

    MMR talked about the Hurricane Deep blowout on their last earnings conf call. So, not “new” news. But, being treated as if it was.

58. Jat – thanks. Hurricane Deep already know to be dead so no new news there. Impairment on BB Hill would be pretty small if it were to happen, but that’s not an indication of a problem with the well, just something with which to base a rumor on.

59. y, fyi, I’m uninvolved in the triad so not nearly as well informed as y’all, just passing along.

60. Like you said BOP, good day to start rumors on for these kinds of guys.

61. Analyst Watch:

    KOG – Raymond raising target from $3 to $4.

62. Z: Would you expect the 4/7 EOG analyst’s meeting to be a tradable event since they gave so little data at the quarterly CC?

63. re 62. 2 years ago it very much was as they detailed a bunch (think it was 5) new oil shale plays. Last year no one cared as they expanded on all this. I think this year we’ll just have to wait and see what they are willing to talk about. If they keep mum about Southeast Tx and the Maverick Basin then I think it’s a sleeper. I very much doubt we get anything on Chinese gas by then so that really puts the burden on Texas discussions unless they pop off something completely new. You just never can tell so I’ll listen to what’s available and then decide with the ZIM.

64. Group sort of taking a pause in the morning fall here. Will be interesting to see if post lunch NYC rallies it or not. So far S&P held Nicky’s first support at 1,140.

65. MCF CEO IS ON A 12 MONTH 200,000 share selling program.

    On the 15th of every month he has to sell about 15,000 shares

    Unfortunatly ( for him), today is the 15th and mcf has only done 9k shares today

66. Compare the price action of CRK/HK to FST. Its like are these stocks in the same industry?

67. FST action = more catalysts, cheaper name (than HK anyway), suddenly coming with big Granite Wash wells which have better economics than even the Haynesville. Doesn’t have the growth rate but isn’t compelled to drill like HK.

68. saw this on a mb

    Note out Howard Weil re: 10-K filing:

    MMR $17.91 (MP): Updates Operations in 10-K, Lowering Target to $19
    Quick Take: Operational news out of MMR in their 10-k was largely negative as Hurricane Deep is unsuccessful, no incremental news on Davy Jones and the cautionary language surrounding Blueberry Hill could also be construed as negative. Additionally, the Company lowered 1Q10 production guidance from 200 MMcfe/d to 190 MMcfe/d due to unplanned downtime, weather and performance issues. FY10 production guidance remains unchanged at 180 MMcfe/d. After factoring in lowered volume guidance in 1Q10, we are lowering our 1Q EPS and CFPS estimates from ($0.09) and $0.73 to ($0.11) and $0.67, respectively. Our current $20 price target reflects ~$0.50/share and ~$1.00/share of potential value from Hurricane Deep and Blueberry Hill, respectively. Therefore, we are lowering our Target Price from $20 to $19 to account for abandonment of Hurricane Deep and caution investors that non-commercial results at Blueberry Hill could knock another dollar off our valuation.

    Operational Update: At Davy Jones, nothing incremental was announced in 10-k regarding logging results, core analysis or Repeat Formation Tester (RFT) measurements. MMR is currently preparing to set production liner and temporarily abandon the well while special completion equipment (i.e. subsea safety valves & high pressure wellheads) can be designed and fabricated. The Rowan-Mississippi rig will move to spud the updip appraisal well at Davy Jones after liner has been set at the discovery well. At Hurricane Deep (MMR 25% WI and PXP 30% WI), MMR ran into flow problems around 18,450’ and is abandoning the wellbore. The timing of a re-drill has not yet been determined. At Blueberry Hill (MMR 42.9% WI and PXP 47.9% WI), the appraisal well is currently drilling below 22,000’ towards a 22,550’ TD. We currently have ~$1.00/share of potential value built into our $20 target for Blueberry Hill. We currently are not giving any value to PXP for Hurricane Deep or Blueberry Hill. The Blackbeard East ultra-deep shelf exploratory prospect recently spud and is currently drilling below 1,000’ towards a 29,950’ TD. The Rowan-Ralph Coffman is drilling this prospect, which we expect should take ~175 days to reach TD.

69. Thanks Bill – I think they are missing the forest for the trees on the guidance issue.

70. Homebuilder sentiment down on weather / foreclosures.

71. Market pretty much shrugging Homebuilder data off, stocks still inching up from lows in many cases. Volumes very low.

72. Best explanation for today. Aside from Dodd, Healthcare and the rest of DC.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/daylight-savings-threatens-to-kick-the-market-downward-2010-3

73. 1146 needs to hold on the upside for us to see further downside.

74. re #67 FST also has analyst day this thursday.

75. Thanks for the reminder Nifkin.

76. getting the long awaited pullback in MHR…nibbling on it a bit

77. Jivey – earnings tonight there I think

78. Would like to see a lower low for signs we may actually have a correction underway.

79. Nicky – volumes still look awful light. Market pull back a bit as Dodd was speaking and then ticked up when he was off camera. Very sleepy out there.

80. JEF downgrade of GMXR: 30 day avg. production of ~5.1mmcfd at a $6.2mm completed cost requires $7 gas to hit their required 20%IRR target (excluding the Mia Austin well). While E. TX has optionality, results over the last yr. are less than expected. Target $12.50 from $21, NAV is $12.50 on $6.50 gas longer term.

81. So far only 3 waves down for oil. I would expect it to backtest the broken uptrend line – so between 81.50 and 82.00. We need to see what happens when it gets there and if we make a lower low before then.

82. GMXR – Pritchard also cutting them, target goes from $19 to $13.

83. re #79 – why on earth is volume so light? This is more like summer trading. The obvious thoughts are it makes any move in any direction meaningless but I guess I am more concerned about a lack of buyers rather than sellers. Maybe the buyers step in if we get a pullback.

84. Nicky – reminds me of summer 2009 trading when everyone hated the market for rising simply because they were not in it. Looks to me like, as you say, the buyers are just waiting on a pullback. Friday was just barely off keeping us from a 10 day run, right. So if we reverse again today, the market would effectively be up it’s 11th day, again, with few on board.

85. If we can get above last weeks highs then the next resistance is the 1162 – 68 area, then 1171…

86. I supposet his move up is supposed to be a ringing endorsement of Dodd’s reform bill. So much for free markets.

87. Interesting to see a little volume coming in in some strange places like my completely failed trade in DVN.

88. Volume on this end of day move up is still less than it was on the move down earlier in the day.

    But please let’s finish positive. I really don’t want to hear everyone say it was a down day when we finish lower by half a point!

89. Agreed. Plus it’s expiry week, and these prices are not thrilling as exit points go.

90. Its Monday – they are always up!

91. TAT is having a good day. HK trades like KaKa

92. Beerthirty. Should see a number of the single digit midget crowd report later. Already seeing stories calling the CXG deal not a good one. Hmmm.

93. OK… miserable day for MMR and PXP. Here’s something that should make people smile, however. Reef just checked in to say that the “pipe liner has been run to TD at DavyJones.” That is great news. As long as the bottom of that well remained open, there was always risk that something bad (like the well walls caving in) could happen. So, good news.

94. Z,
    I feel like I missed something, although I read throught the posts twice. Is it only the “postponed news ” that caused the price drop everywhere? I saw #40, but there seeemd little discussion today, aside from that, given the discussions leading up to the curent prices in the issues we follow?? Have I? Thanks

95. Dij – 51,52,56. That would be it. The stock is up a lot. There is a healthy short contingent who would like to see it fall. BOP’s comment at the end of the day is pretty important. These guys are aware of the movements in their stock price. My sense is that with the liner run on Davy and with the lease sale out of the way Wednesday, you have a beeter chance of seeing an “apparent high bidder and operational update” type press release out of them Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

96. z — #95 is the best prediction of the future that I can come up with. Given where we sit right now. So, maybe shorts push on The Triad for the next two days. But then it’s PayBack Time, boys!

97. headlines out… since it appears Congress can’t pass “cap and trade,” the EPA is looking into forming their own Carbon-Trading System.

    Guess the “sale” of carbon credits to companies is proving to be too big a pot of gold for Team Obama to walk away from.

    Housing, healthcare, energy use, education, and soon eating guidelines. The Govt will provide all (and control everything) we need and so much of that pesky stuff we used to do for ourselves.

    That sure qualifies as “change” in my book.

98. >Housing, healthcare, energy use, education, and soon eating guidelines. The Govt will provide all (and control everything) we need and so much of that pesky stuff we used to do for ourselves.

    I feel so much better….not!

    Thinking out loud i, its amazing the market has react so well 10,600 on dow, think we would be at 5,000 with these guys in charge

99. BEXP on the tape with 3 completions a week early. Details in a bit.

100. Z,
     Thanks. I mean I knew that, that the price was following all the in and outs of the drill(ing), but jeez. It sure presages many price movements and bits of drilling given the size of it all!

101. Good evening…for much of the day it looked like a number of the bullish patterns on many of the stocks we follow were going to breakdown…but by the close essentially all the stocks recovered back to salvage their respective patterns, leaving matters relatively unchanged from a technical perspective…

102. bexp adds acreage

     http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Brigham-Exploration-Announces-iw-782391615.html?x=0&.v=1

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