T.G.I.F.

Posted on by zman

 

Market Sentiment Watch: Natural gas storage saw an essentially in line withdrawal yesterday ... and promptly sold off. It's hot outside right now. The equity market chose to run to new highs near the close yesterday which has to be pretty perplexing to all the bears from a month ago who forecast S&P 1,030 and then ... 666 and who last week were calling this a lower high right shoulder double top. Oh well. This morning retail sales figures came in markedly better than expected (up 0.3% vs flat expectations or up 0.8% ex autos vs 0.1% expected).


In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Storage Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio, formerly the $10KP II):

  • $16,900
  • 29% Cash
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • MMR – Added (25) March $19 calls for $0.29 with the stock at $18.10 in what looks like a little impatient hands selling as we await Davy Jones news.

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $11,900
  • 84% Cash (No positions)

  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • DVN – Added (10) April $75 calls for $1.94 with the stock at $73.20. See site for details on their transaction with BP this morning. I may add more calls or divest myself of these during their call later this morning.
    • DVN – Added (20) March $75 Calls for $0.50 (on the mid and easily) with the stock at $72.50.

Commodity Watch

Crude oil closed up 2 pennies yesterday $82.11. I continue to think crude hovers near the current level through OPEC's meeting next week, perhaps taking a shot at $85 if the equity markets continue to break out. This morning crude is trading up $0.75 after retail sales.

  • IEA Watch: 3rd group this week to raise global oil demand forecast, the Paris based group lifted its target to up 1.6 mm bopd or up 1.8%.

Natural gas fell$0.12 to close at $4.44 yesterday, after having started the day off week, and then doubling the days loss after the EIA reported a slightly bigger than expected withdrawal from storage (see below). Some weather forecasters who I subscribe to and who have been good all winter are calling this little heat wave which is depressing gas prices a false Spring, saying Winter isn't yet done with the country. This morning gas is trading flat.


Natural Gas Storage Review


ZComments:  While the weather is dictating that the low storage cases are not going to occur this week they were never really very realistic we continue to hone in on the 1.5 Tcf target with one last shot of cooler weather mid to late March probably being sufficient to get us there. Note that this year's withdrawal of 111 Bcf matched last year's change in storage but came on slightly warmer weather indicating a tightening in the market has occurred.



 

Stuff We Care About Today

 

KOG Reports 4Q09 Results; Updates Operations With Another Big Well

The 4Q09 Numbers:  A little light to estimates but I think that won't be much of a concern given current production.

  • Production: 782 BOEpd (97% oil) vs :

    • year ago of 334 BOEpd(up 134% YoY)
    • and current production of 1,500 BOEpd (up 92% from the 4Q average with the addition of volumes from wells 10 and 11)
  • Costs: LOE in $/ BOE of $4.25 is very low.
  • Revenue: $4.79 mm vs $6 mm expected
  • EPS of ($0.00) vs $0.01 expected
  • EBITDA of $2.112 mm vs $3 mm expected

Operational Update:

  • Well #11, the MC 16-3H, comes in with an IP of 1,495 BOEpd, their highest IP well yet.
  • The #10 well, which was announced in February with an IP of 1,419 BOEpd has produced at 851 BOEpd in its first 21 days on stream, pretty strong and exceeding in cumulative production their best 30 day recovery.
    • These are so called "short laterals", less than 5,000 feet. Note that many of the big wells you hear about from BEXP and WLL for instance with IPs north of 2,000 BOEpd have laterals twice this long with more than double the number of frac stages.
  • Longer Lateral test coming. They've drilled a 9,700 foot lateral well (their #13 well) and well #14 will have an 8,600 foot lateral.
  • Eastern Montana - taking delivery of their second Unit rig to drill a Red River test (date not listed but would expect it to spud in first half) with the well having looks at the Bakken and Three Forks on the way down. 

Other Stuff:

Balance Sheet:

  • Cash: $24.9 mm
  • Debt: $0

Reserves:

  • Proved reserves of 4.5 mm Boe
    • 68% proved undeveloped - this may raise an eyebrow or two as that's a pretty high PUD %. 
    • 21 R/P (21 year reserve life)
  • TEV / BOE = $59 / BOE which is extremely pricey but as the company is in it's early years that's acceptable.

Capex: Remains at $60 mm, which gets you 11.5 net Bakken and Three Forks wells and that Red River well mentioned above.

 

Nutshell: A little light on the top and bottom line. Do I really care about a penny miss at this juncture?  Absolutely not.  Street should look past that pretty quickly as they are producing nearly double what they were during the quarter and that should grow over the course of the year as more wells are added. They should continue to talk up the fact that their pint sized laterals are half the length of the big boys' well with half the IP. So it stands to reason the real estate is pretty good and completion techniques continue to be honed. Upcoming longer laterals should provide catalyst potential for a move well above $3.

Conference Call: Today, 11am EST

HK Raymond James Recap - just a little new info for your perusal ...

  • Leasehold commitiments: drives the program in 2010 and half of 2011
  • Well Hedged: targeting 70% of production, have been outgrowing their hedges last few years
  • Capex for 2010: $1.5 B. What you get for that:

    • Haynesville: 17 rigs running -100 wells
    • Eagle Ford: 4-5 rigs - 60 wells
    • Fayetteville: 1 rig - growing via non operated wells here
  • Three Important Statements:

    1. "We will not be accessing the capital markets this year and next",
    2. They specifically said "we are not buying Common Resources (a private E&P focused on Haynesville and Eagle Ford acreage) in case you've heard that rumor",
    3. "Divestments ... we will make our targets". They will get them done in the first half of the year and they expect to raise a billion dollars or more from their sale.
    • I would add on these that there was no equivocation. No statements like "unless we see something we have to buy". These very much are promises to the Street. Violate that first one and they will have big troubles, more than they have in the past, with credibility.
  • Other Highlights:

    • Zavala County - This is their shallower Eagle Ford oil play - should know something in a few weeks.

GMXR Quick Look - I No Longer Own The Common But It's One I Watch

The 4Q Numbers:

  • Production of 3.6 Bcfe (39.1 MMcfepd) - this had already been pre announced as 3.5 Bcfe ... go figure.
    • Production is starting to move up as Haynesville production overtakes their prior focus on Cotton Valley.  They made the strategic shift to shale production over their conventional bread and butter in late 2008
    • 41% of production in 4Q was from the Haynesville shale.
  • Revenue of $24 mm vs $25 expected
  • EPS of $0.20 (ex items) vs $0.09 expected 
  • CFPS of $0.35 vs $0.53 expected 
  • EBITDA: $11.5 mm vs $17 mm expected

Highlights:

  • Restatement of results from 2008 and 2009 leads to messiness but these are non cash numbers that are changing.
  • Drilled 11 Haynesville wells in 2009
  • Average 30 day production is 5.1 MMcfepd, produced on restricted chokes
  • 4 wells drilled in the fourth quarter had average 30 day rates of 4.75 MMcfepd, probably not noteworthy but may give some analyst types pause. 
  • Recently well, the Mia Austin 1H completed in Feb 2010 produced 230 MMcfepd in its first month (8.2 MMcfepd)
  • Drilling times falling in the Haynesville with recent spud to TD times averaging just over 30 days ... as such drilling and completion costs fell 54% last year.
  • Plan for 2010 includes moving to larger well bores, 5 1/2" casing - this allows for tight perforation cluster spacing ... so they get a better frac along the length of the lateral. Should see results from 2 wells in April (will add to Catalyst List)

Reserves: (also previously disclosed)

  • Feel from 453.9 Bcfe to 355.3 Bcfe largely due to new pricing rules and additions & extensions of new reserves that are not allowed under the new SEC rules. That last item would seem to need a little more explanation but the verbiage in the press release surround a desire to reduce their proven undeveloped locations on the reserve report sums it up nicely. 

Guidance:

  • Capex: $175 B to drill 22 Haynesville and 2 Cotton Valley wells. Spending is essentially flat with 2009.
  • Volumes: 17.5 Bcfe (up 29%), up slightly from last read at 17 Bcfe.

Conference Call: Today: 11 am EST.

 ATPG Reports - Just a quick look since they came out late.

  • Telemark on schedule for production later this month, good test rate of the associated Atwater Valley 64 #4 well (previously disclosed). Second well on in 2Q.
  • Canyon Express - first well on at 30 MM/d gross, two more wells on soon to bring volumes up to 60 MM/d gross.  ATPG has a 50% interest here. 
  • 4Q EPS  was $0.20 ex items vs ($0.12) expected
  • Still reading through it but want to go ahead and post, conference call at 11 am EST (very popular time today). 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  •  NFX - Goldman raises target $3 to $66

170 thoughts on “T.G.I.F.”

  1. Morning all.

    Z – Peter Beutel was on CNBC earlier saying there was a player in the energy sector (he didn’t know who) who was known to have a huge spread trade on shorting nat gas and buying crude. He said it is artificially pushing the price of oil higher and of course nat gas lower and is completely distorting the market.

  2. ATPG miss the type that will cause the stock to go up. Nothing imploding, all on schedule, and the punk EPS are receading into the past. Onward and upward to the galaxy and beyond.

  3. Nicky – Interesting, thanks. I did note that oil longs rose last week (non commercial CFTC). After the rally we’ve had they usually back off and regroup $10 lower. So thought that was odd. NG shorts rose again but that’s nothing new and to be expected going into the shoulder.

  4. DVN yesterday: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    They refused to oil up their talk about the future. They bought stuff that’ll take 4 years to develop in the oil sands; the market wants them in a play like the Bakken. Problem with that is it’s all leased up. Big premiums to buy a position of significance given their size. Was talking with RMD last night at soccer practice (he walks his dog down to the fields to distract my girls) and he was saying given the guy’s age at DVN he thinks he’s just cleaning it up for a punt…sounds exactly right to me.

  6. saw atpg hedged oil at the lows last qtr 69 and 70 … doesnt look too good with 80+ prices

    Their debt cost was 150 m or almost 1 m every 2 days. They need everything to go right

  7. More on DVN – The Times reporting XOM could scuttle $3 B of the deal with pre-emptive rights on Aerbaijan part of the deal. Shouldn’t hurt DVN, just kink BP’s plan.

  9. GMXR – pain of reserve downgrade already taken, see post for details but I rather liked the quarter. Not going to jump back in and I’ll be on the KOG call and listening to the replay here but a little more interested now. Catalysts coming in the form of late Spring large diameter casing tests in the Haynesville.

  10. NFX price target upgrade at Goldman probably part of the move last couple of days as they are often leaky. If anyone sees reasoning there (and I’m thinking it’s Alberta Bakken) please let me know as all I see is the headline. Thx.

  12. TechTrader is calling for a 60/40 LONG trade today.

    HeadTrader would buy the sell-off on the opening gap up.

  13. BEXP poised for a re-rally on oil here.

    WLL trying to push on through the old high pre open.

    Eyes on the prices a little more now as we are 6 days out of expiry.

  15. ATPG: “They need everything to go right”. Yup, that seems to be the history of the big platforms or they go poof into the night ala Oilexco. What I think is important here is that the Telemark Hub is on schedule for first production later this month. Congrats to West as it appears his April 19s and 20s are in play. I admitly could not muster up the courage.

  16. Note in the post on the review of HK, that’s as close to a promise you will hear a CEO make regarding the capital markets. There was none of the usual equivocation. He simply stated they won’t be doing an equity deal in 2010 or 2011.

  17. Z I have resistance at 1155, 1158,1165, 1171.

    You have to be long until this trade no longer works of course but in the same way if you are long you need to be very careful as when they decide this is done we could see anything from a 40 – 120 point drop in the SPX very very fast. I would imagine we will see a parabolic blow off top – I hate those!

    If the SPX can make the higher numbers then I think it likely that oil could test 84.20. However note metals already declining….

  20. i think atpg goes up early then sells off this afternnon

    they really lost 80 cents or 40 m this qtr.

    They added back 30 m of 1 time items and lowered the loss from the real 40 m to 10 m.

    q1 will be better, they might actually make money

    Im not familiar with Oilexco but id like to see telemark up and running for a week before i go back into the name

  23. KOG – good open, up 4%, many hoping for it to open lower for a chance to pick up more probably disappointed.

  24. drat. My Evil Plan to add more KOG on a morning sell-off is not working well. That antelope is running the wrong way.

  27. Z: Doug Kass looking for a correction all week. Shocking. Second hand info. I am not a subscriber.

  28. GMXR off pre call, sort of interesting.

    KOG with a $3 handle!

    Most everything on the holdings list modestly, but not wildly up.

  29. Not to get all “rah-rah” about it… but Congrats to all you Koggers who held in there. You know who you are… and you deserve a nice pat on the back.

    KOG has “cracked the code” on how to complete wells. Took ’em about a year. But, slow and steady… they got it right.

  33. NFX not reacting to the GS upgraded target price … as suspected, the GS clients got the memo 2 days ago, lol.

  34. I’d be surprised if the market doesn’t discount the sentiment report pretty quickly. If anyone thinks sentiment should be up from last month to this month they probably need some kind of pill or couch time. People are buying stuff as per the retail sales reports, this doesn’t mean they are happy about things, just that they are tired of not spending. Call it depression buying.

  36. KOG, ATPG, GMXR calls in 30 minutes.

    Pretty sloppy/slow market post sentiment. I’d guess it cleans up into the close.

  37. TISDZ at a buck. Someone thinks Davy Jones is going to work and well. These are the Treasure Island warrants that participate in some of the ultradeep play including Blackbeard. I think La Fitte and Captain Blood are part of the Treasure Island deal as well. Not sure if Davy is covered by it but the move up is attributable to Davy confirming that the lower Wilcox works at the ultra deep depth. Big targets in terms of acreage, at high pressure, full of gas.

  38. DVN below it’s pre deal level. Will give through Monday morning before punting. I have read nothing from the Street as of yet either glaringly positive or negative.

  40. I’d like to see how mgt covers capex in the KOG call. $60 mil plan, $25 mil cash and not very strong cash flow from ops in 09. Obviously higher volume will improve over 09 results but is there another equity raise coming?

  42. skimo — I am not using 2009 as the cashflow generating model. But, you are right, that is where we should focus. KOG has said they have enough cash and projected cash flow to fund all of 2010. But, would be 1) nice to hear them say that again, and 2) nicer to think that there is a cash flow cushion after capex. So, you will be on the call, right? Can you help with postings?

  44. I’ll be on and try to help but I’m not nearly as well-versed on the oil patch as y’all. By the way, thanks again for pointing me in the direction of KOG, its been a pretty darn nice ride so far!

  45. skimo — that is great! just post things that sound important to you. It helps to understand what the investment community (who are not geo-scientists) are pulling from the call. Appreciate the help.

  46. MLPs in general have been up a lot recently. People are looking for ways to increase their yields, as bond yields have fallen. Sooner or later, these same people will have to reach out and actually BUY STOCKS. >>gasp<<

  47. Goldman cut their 2010 and 2011 gas price targets by $0.50 to $5.50 and $6.00 respectively today due to higher than expected shale gas production.

    KOG call starting.

  48. GS saying fears over 1Q #s at HAL are overblown. Sees strong international in 2H10, more uncertain NAM 2H due to gas prices.

  49. gee… remember when having that 2nd rig was a liabitity?? Looks like an asset to me now.

  50. re #35 VTZ,the move down the in the dollar currently looks corrective to me in which case it should find support around 79 before moving higher.

  51. ATPG – interesting beginning to call – comparing it to xmas , all the presents are wrapped and all the kids are giddy in anticipation. very brief 6 minute opening. questions now

  52. getting hooked up to a pipeline is going to be a nice bump to revs… waiting to hear final details here. sounds like they are close to deciding what to do…

  53. KOG – mostly stuff we know so far, good tone to call, good to hear differentials continue to narrow. Q&A about to start.

  55. Paribas… i think. Interesting that KeyBanc did not step up. Wonder what happened there?

  56. terms sheets in hand for lines of credit. Good to hear but I’d like to hear about a completed deal!

  59. KOG — moral of the KeyBanc revolver story… if it takes “too long” to negotiate, it ain’t gonna happen, guys.

    That said, when KOG gets the revolver in place, they plan to hegde some production. By not hedging yet, prices have moved in their direction.

  61. MLP are up for many reasons: 1) since mlps live blood is credit, a free flowing credit market is a must which we now have 2) the gas processing and gathers are facing a very favorable enviro — they use process nat gas and sell the liquids. Since the liquids are usually priced off of oil, they are making money. 3) the market is up for everything 4) debt covenants are no longer a worry and many has issued stock to clean up stretched balance sheets.

    MLPs are NOT a monolith: there are gas and processors, pipelines — intra state and inter state, general partners, etcc. All have different risk and profit profiles.

  62. KOG – very good answer re “work load here” re the delay on getting a new bank loan.

    “absolutely not” when asked about operational delays. Obviously not but good to hear it asked and answered. They’ll get a new bank, it’s not a worry.

  64. NFX through $55.

    Recurring theme watch: seeing pressure on service costs in the field. They are all going up. We have heard this again and again. BEXP raised their well cost target for 2010 last week. Good news for the service guys.

  65. Its too early to say whether what we have seen this morning is all of v or just wave i of v. 1141 area is key.

  67. andy, they are coming off low numbers

    q 4 stunk at 1,250 mboe and q 1 even though its 25 % higher still stinks at 1.5.

    They saying 12.0 for the year so all the growth is in the back half of the year

  68. skimo — good catch… those recent wells costs are ticking up. Good thing they locked in that 2nd rig.

  69. Does anyone understand DVN? What ever it does, it just can’t see to get wall streets “love”. I mean other E&P names (place in your name of choice here) does stuff and goes up, while DVN does good stuff and goes nowhere.

  70. DJ triad weakish, wondering if we see the Friday for Monday ramp soon.

    KOG – good EUR talk on these short lateral wells.

    One thing to note is that even if the rigs are locked in and you have drill pipe and casing ordered already, labor can still drive you higher. Wyoming can answer better than me but someone was saying the other day (forget which management team) that there is some flow through of rising labor costs back to the E&P on these locked in services.

  71. Press release indicated they are at 1500 BOPD now, wonder what full year is going to come in at.

  72. Lynn sounds very on top of managing the cash flow vs capex needs. He has been thru the fire on this… KOG is benefiting from that (painful) education.

  73. re KOG What a terrible problem. Don’t know how much to hedge, because their expected production is going to grow too fast to know right now.

  74. skimo — Lynn said recently that they are tageting 3,000 BOE/d as they exit 2010.

  75. BSJ – I followed them for a living for a long time and I have to say they’ve done very well over the long run. This punt of international and Gomex assets is counterintuitive to the Street at this time as it makes them immediately gassier. I had figured that was already in the stock and getting better than expected sale prices for the assets would be accretive to the story from that baseline. I think people are disappointed that they didn’t clearly lay a path to a more near term liquids rich profile.

  76. Sound like the new pipeline will give serious improvement/ flaring off gas now so incremental profit opportunity in Q4 and beyond.

  79. Eld – HK has the same problem every year. Of course, that’s gas, not oil, so no one makes the same comment or notices, but yeah, awful problem to have.

    BOP – wondering when they decide to start posting official guidance. Probably a little early to expect it out of them but at some point they will probably need to give broad ranges on the year. If you hang exits out there and it’s back end weighted due to late year drilling you can leave your analysts with average 2H10 numbers that may be too aggressive cause a “miss”. Something that you really don’t need at this stage and which with a good IR guy can handle.

  80. skimo — i don’t think you missed it… he said that in in a private meeting recently. Haven’t seen that in print yet… maybe it’s out there, but haven’t seen it.

  81. KOG — hooking into a pipeline is going to be a very big step UP for little KOG, for sure.

  84. These guys don’t sound quite as polished as EXXI mgt, but solid nonetheless! Thanks again for bringing the opportunity to us!

  86. I think it is good getting away from the gulf and those VERY expensive and tricky wells and more into oil sands is a good thing. But your are right about the market might not like them getting gassier.

  87. Z to correct #37; Lafitte and Cap’t Blood are in their own “Lafitte Strategic Area”, which is between the Blackbeard and DJ Areas (slide 115).
    Doesn’t slide 115 mean all the blocks on the shallow shelf (in those 3 big Strategic Area circles) are prospective at those depths?

  88. skimo — they are a completely different company and in a completely different position (a good one) from a year ago. I can’t believe I heard Lynn use the word “fun” on the call. A year or so ago, he would have handed the reins off to anyone who came in thru the door with a decent price. With the recent hires in Denver and Montana, sounds like Lynn expects to be around for a while. I am going to guess that the Peak discussions are progressing…

  89. “Huge reserves of “combustible ice” — frozen methane and water — have been discovered in the tundra of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Estimates show that there is enough combustible ice to provide 90 years worth of energy for China. Burning the combustible ice may be a far better alternative than letting it just melt, releasing tons of methane into the air.”

    http://www.inhabitat.com/2010/03/11/china-developing-combustible-ice-as-new-energy-source/

  91. “The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition the Alberta government is rolling back a royalty regime loathed by the province’s all-important energy industry. The Globe’s Nathan VanderKlippe and David Ebner write that after months of feeling the wrath of an industry chafing under a year-old royalty hike intended to give Albertans a greater share of windfall profits, Premier Ed Stelmach is now reversing course and almost completely abandoning the increases. It is slashing the highest royalty rates — those designed to kick in only when energy prices are high and profits are surging — on oil and gas wells. The province is also moving to cut industry red tape, promising a new report to speed regulatory processes within 90 days. It is a reversal from a premier who just two years ago trumpeted the need to deliver Albertans a “fair share” of oil and gas profits that were pouring in as crude oil prices soared into the triple digits. “Alberta’s back,” declared Andrew Wiswell, the chief executive officer of NAL Oil & Gas Trust. A more competitive regime is badly needed in Alberta, said Darren Gee, CEO of Peyto Energy. “We’re trying to compete for world capital dollars, not just Canadian dollars.”

    logic prevails-anyone think it might be possible for our “leaders” to take note-nope, not a chance.

  92. Some of the headlines coming out of Washington today are not helping the mrkt. People do not want this particular “healthcare” bill. Washington is pushing ahead. Not good stuff.

    If the healthcare bill is so great, why will Unions and Govt Employees be exempted?

  94. RE: 91 according to UBS Canada analysts Chad Friess, the big winners will be CVE, ECA, TLM among the large caps, PetroBakkan among the mid and Trican Well Service and Calfrac Well Services among the service firms.

  95. 87 – will circle back, thanks, wasn’t sure on Laf and Cap

    Popeye – sounds like they are talking about hydrates but in peat. There are mega reserves of frozen hydrates around the world, especially in the Gomex. No one has figured out how to get them to the surface. Those sound like a strip mining oil sands type ops. Hmmm.

    Thanks Choices

  98. Re Slide 115 – I wouldn’t go that far as all the blocks do not have big 4 way closures under them. I think they are just telling that’s the basic target rich real estate.

  99. Z: Read The GS comments today re NFX. I am not allowed to forward. Their analyst went to visit XCO, UPL and NFX. He raised the price because he tweaked his DCF multiples. Nothing to do with Alberta Bakken.

  102. West, Andy, anything interesting on the call with ATPG today? Stock up 11%, good call to you ATPG guys. I will listen to eventually, but anything pressing?

  103. ATPG – questions still – thought one good one if things are going so well, why the insider sales in jan, which tend to rub shareholders including himself the wrong way?? ceo tried to answer, but i thought he skated around it.

  104. Z: Can I try to put you on the spot. With DVN which would you consider more probable, They buy someone else or get bought themselves. Just want you to have another opportunity to shine.

  105. Yesterday I mentioned that at least in my kennel, that the dogs where barking. I check out the recent price action of some other “doggy” stocks and really surprised. These stocks are up and up alot. For example, since Feb, RAS is up from 1 to 2.20+, RLOG is up from 3 to almost 5, CCRT 2.70’s to over 4.50 — etc.. It really is amazing. People can not say that the cats and dogs are not having there day.

  107. z – i am more impressed w/your ability to continue listening while typing and keeping track of mkt events. me-not to good at it!!
    ATPG pretty positive call w/ lots of questions!!! like the format of not reading press release and virtually going straight to questions.

  108. Re 104. Tell you what, if I get that right you have to agree to adopt my 3 cattle dogs. Deal? Ok then. I think they are setting themselves up to be bought. To me they missed the opportunity by about 18 months and maybe should have held off on streamlining until 2011 when I think they would have seen better oil prices for their oily reserves.

  109. Re 107, thanks keep the color coming, I like gang tackling these calls.

    Real oppy may be over in GMXR, where the shares sank early and stayed down through the call. Plan to listen to that replay first.

  110. VTZ: Just some anecdotal info re gold. I have always been in the bullish camp for many of the reasons you have spelled out. I have been in GGN a closed end gold/crude fund. This morning it was trading at a $2 premium to net asset value. That is crazy overvalued. I can only come up with two possible reasons. Still strong demand for gold/crude or people wanting to buy income at any price. At this level the current return is 9.5%. Just thought I would share. Have been a seller the last two weeks.

  114. The 2$ premium on a NAV of 15.50 is less than you would have to pay some people to get physical. If it’s paper then you might as well just sell it and if you want the same income buy GLD and sell calls against it monthly.

  115. ATPG – finally over- last remark by ceo “we are getting ready to celebrate xmas in march”

  116. VTZ: No it is not Physical. They own the equities and write covered calls. The breakdown is normally 60% gold stocks 40% big energy. I hear you on the $1500. I am right there with you.

  117. Keep in mind the COMEX price is grossly manipulated and there are measures in place to ensure that people cannot receive delivery. If you do want to receive delivery you have to jump through hoops, get security, etc etc. Not to mention the fact you have to at least buy a 1000 oz contract to make it worthwhile.

    Try buying gold anywhere at COMEX prices.

  118. Ok well if it’s equities then yeah that premium to NAV is pretty silly. I don’t get it.

  119. ATPG, I thought that the cc went well . Although tere was one individual that was upset about management selling shares in January. Probably just a little lack of knowledge on their part as to when management is able to seel in accordance with sec rules.I think that mgmt did a good job and gave quite a bit more detail than usual. One thing most people don’t seem to understand is that everything takes longer to execute especially in the deeper water. This is just my personal opinion but the future looks good and it should take some of the ammo from the shorts. It should be noted that some of the shorts are actually the preferred holders that arb trade executed. JB is the better chart man, but this could be the big volume move out of the bullish wedge .I will be out the rest of the day most likely but might try to get something together later. KOG is looking good also and BOP the avg Peak well makes 70 boepd after 12 months.

  120. West — thanks for the Peak info. That would suggest that those wells started life around 700+ boepd, given Lynn’s comment about 90% decline rate in 1st yr. Also, wonder how completion techniques have greatly improving over the last year will affect EURs for Peak…

  121. 92

    >If the healthcare bill is so great, why will Unions and Govt Employees be exempted?

    that’s an outrage

  123. bill – re drybulkers. The BDI has ramped up lately. PRGN CEO is still extremely cautious. Not so much about the amount currently being shipped, but the total supply of ships coming into the market.

    Do you have any diffent thoughts?

  124. BOP i know you’re very opposed to health care bill , but does it do anything for the millions of people who can not afford it and their employee does not pay it (like all my employees)

  125. BSJ – can I get your thoughts on MLP and RT choice in here, U.S. only, thanks.

    I have held for LINE for a time and as you know I mode WHX and like it but don’t own it. Still looking for a little yield for both tax and nontax accounts. Don’t see a reason on the taxable account not to take some WHX based on the fundamentals. Just looking for a 1 or 2 year hold with high yield and stable to up units/common.

  126. BEXP – continuing to drift back on up. No news next week but anticipation of news in the following week could drive it through the $18 mark.

  127. andy — I am all for bringing down the cost of healthcare and bringing up access. Believe me, i know about providing employees (and myself) with health insurance. This bill does none of that.

    That’s the thing about this whole argument. You have to read the details. If someone askes you “do you want steak?” If you like steak, you will say “yes!” But if they deliver a steak to your table covered in dog poo, is that really what you had in mind?

    This is Healthcare “reform”… covered in dog poo. Let’s send it back to the kitchen and start over.

  130. Patience has never been my long suit but it seems that this market requires it in double amounts-everyone waiting for the correction, meanwhile mkt holds or is pumped up at the close-some stks we follow surprise to upside, others lag-I’ve been waiting for BOP’s antelopes now for 2-3 weeks but they are faster than I am-need more patience-very wary of being too exposed for the summer doldrums.

  131. Interesting conversation on Davy Jones. There is a thought that they do NOT release any material info on DJ until after the March 25th offshore lease sale. There is still some attractive acres coming up, that the MMR crowd would like to get their ultra-deep paws on.

    This makes some sense. On the other hand, Schiller spilled a whole lotta beans at his first-ever investor day. So, really, what’s left? Other than confirming 240+ft of pay and a successful completion of the well.

    Anyway, just another thing to file under the DJ Triad.

  133. VTZ – do u know anything about GSS. it’s up big today w/ gold down and their conf call last week?

  134. Not sure what it could be other than follow through from their gold discovery announcement in Ghana on the 4th. It’s got high volume on the move as well.

  139. Peak Concentrating Drilling Activity Southeast of Watford City
    McKenzie County, North Dakota
    Colorado-based Peak Grasslands (Peak) appears to have found encouragement in the horizontal Bakken some 5 miles southeast of Watford City in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The company, which is an active Bakken driller primarily in neighboring Dunn County, has staked their third sideways test in a township that is currently void of any type of commercial production. Peak has recently surveyed in location for the Wisness #21-34H, sw-se 21-149n-98w, a horizontal test that will have a bottom hole presumably in the northern portion of section 16-149n-98w. This drillsite is located within one of 10 units Peak has planned for this township. The proposed 1,280-acre drilling units include sections 5/8, 6/7, 15/22, 16/21, 17/20, 18/19, 27/34, 28/33, 29/32, and 30/31. To support creation of these units, the firm supplied the North Dakota Industrial Commission with the following data:

    Reservoir Fluid Properties

    Producing interval:
    Middle Bakken

    TVD:
    11,220’

    Oil gravity:
    37.8° API

    BHT:
    285°F

    Initial res. pressure:
    5,776 psi

    Gas/oil ratio:
    862 scf/bbl

    Pay thickness:
    38’

    Average porosity:
    6%

    Water saturation:
    25% (estimated)

    OOIP:
    9,989 mstbo (for 1,280 acres)

    Economics

    Primary rec. factor:
    4.5%

    EUR, oil:
    450 mstbo

    EUR, gas:
    387 mmcfg

    Operating cost:
    $6,000 month plus $6/bbl for saltwater disposal

    Royalties and overrides:
    20%

    Average oil price:
    $69/bbl

    Average gas price:
    $5/mcf

    Gross revenues:
    $19,914,000

    Severance tax (oil and gas):
    $2,360,970

    Operating costs:
    $3,452,000

    Investment:
    $6,700,000

    ROR:
    29.09%

    Payout:
    3.1 years

    Two miles southwest of the Wisness #21-34H drilliste, Peak is reportedly testing an unknown amount of oil from the Bakken at the Sondrol #30-21H, ne-nw 30-149n-98w. The nearest hole to Peak’s possible discovery that penetrated the Bakken is less than 2 miles to the northwest at the Clay Butte #1-23H, se-sw 23-149n-99w. Operated by Sinclair Oil and Gas (Sinclair), this test bottomed in the Souris River at a depth of 12,100’. Originally set up as a horizontal Duperow wildcat, Sinclair abandoned this effort in the vertical section after determining that the Duperow did not warrant the expense of drilling sideways. This hole was plugged in 2007. According to the geologist’s report, the Bakken shale exhibited dull yellow fluorescence and good yellow-green milky cut. The background gas in this zone reached a high of 2,770 units. No tests were performed in this zone prior to plugging.

    A similar distance northwest of the Wisness #21-34H location, Peak has brought in Unit rig No. 328 and has commenced making hole at the Schilke #8-24H, se-sw 8-149n-98w. Bottom hole for this prospect will terminate in the northern part of section 5-149n-98w. The nearest test to this active well is some 2 miles northeast at a noncommercial well drilled by Pogo Producing in 1987. The Johnsrud #1-3, se-se 3-149n-98w, was completed as a vertical Red River discovery pumping 58 bopd from Ordovician perforations at 14,284’–14,395’. Representing the field opener for Pembroke Field, this one-well pool was abandoned in 1987 after producing 2,323 bo, 161.8 mmcfg, and 4,413 bw. No shows were reported in either the Bakken or Three Forks, which were picked at a depth of 11,091’ and 11,169’, respectively.

    There is another company playing the horizontal Bakken in this township. Newfield Production (Newfield) has brought in a spudder and has drilled surface hole at the Bluefin #1-13H, se-se 13-149n-98w. This sideways test is less than a mile southeast of an abandoned Red River test that exhibited shows in the Bakken. Drilled by Energetics Operating, the Bradshaw Federal #1-13, se-nw 13-149n-98w, bottomed in the Red River at a depth of 14,350’. The company conducted one drillstem test across the Lower Bakken/Three Forks interval from 11,079’ to 11,162’, in which the pipe recovered 1,602’ of water cushion and 785’ of slightly gas-cut mud, with the sampler holding 0.35 cfg and 1,900 cc of mud. According to the geologist’s report, “The top of the Three Forks was encountered at 11,106’. The Sanish zone at the top of the Three Forks was a zone of interest. The lithology consisted of a brown dolomite, micro–very fine crystalline with some intercrystalline porosity. A faint milky cut was observed with the dry sample. The sample show was accompanied by a gas increase from 75 units to 375 units. A DST was run. The recovery consisted of saltwater and mud with a very slight trace of gas. All indications are that this zone is unproductive.”

    The nearest Bakken production to the Peak and Newfield activity is several miles north at the most southerly field well in Siverston Field. Operated by Encore Operating, the Cherry Creek State #44-36H, se-se 36-150n-98w, has produced more than 39.5 k bo, 16.8 mmcfg, and 31.1 k bw from the Bakken interval at 11,505’–19,807’. Siverston Field itself has cumulated in excess of 175 k bo, 97 mmcfg, and 97 k bw from five active Bakken wells following its discovery in 2006

  140. #130-pls ignore-I’m mumbling to myself in frustration, waiting for correction, interest rates to go up,dollar to fall, gold to go up-nothing working at the moment.

    BOP-do you expect the dollar to strengthen when T-Bond rates go up-seems that is the common wisdom for that is that worth.

    Thanks.

  141. For a dull day, a lovelorn wolverine in the Sierras:
    Lone, lovelorn wolverine baffles scientists

    Peter Fimrite, Chronicle Staff Writer

    Tuesday, March 9, 2010
    Wolverines hadn’t been seen in this state for 90 years un…

    A lone wolverine discovered in California almost 90 years after the species supposedly went extinct here is apparently searching for a mate that he might never find.

    The muscular carnivore with dark fur and a telltale almond-colored stripe was first photographed in 2008 roaming the Tahoe National Forest.

    The finding caused a sensation among wildlife experts, but nobody has yet figured out how the wolverine found its way to the Sierra – his nearest relative is thought to be two states away.

    Hair samples and scat have been picked through by scientists, who say the wolverine is a male that came from Idaho, probably across the Sawtooth and Cascade ranges, a trek of at least 800 miles.

    “I wish we had the answers,” said Amanda Shufelberger, a wildlife biologist for Sierra Pacific Industries, which has used a baited remote camera to photograph the animal several times over the past few weeks.
    Girlfriend wanted

    Shufelberger calls the wolverine Buddy. A better name might be Randy. The peripatetic predator is apparently looking for action 20 miles northwest of Truckee. Photographs taken on Jan. 22 and a video montage on the timber company’s Web site show him trying to impress other wolverines – which apparently aren’t around – with masculine aromas.

    “He marks his territory a lot,” Shufelberger said. “It’s breeding season, so he’s probably feeling lonely right now and searching for a female. It is sad.”

    Genetic testing of hair found in the same area in 2009 confirmed that the bowlegged beast is the same wolverine from two years ago.

    Wildlife biologists thought wolverines had been wiped out in California more than eight decades ago by the fur trade. The species had not been seen in the state since 1922, when the last California wolverine was skinned.

    Initial speculation was that the randy Tahoe denizen was a descendant of native California wolverines, but the genetic material collected at the food traps did not match the DNA taken from the skulls and skins of California wolverines killed between 1891 and 1922.
    Relatives in Rockies

    Turns out the libidinous loner is related to wolverines in the northern Rocky Mountains, particularly Idaho’s Sawtooth Range, according to the U.S. Forest Service’s genetics laboratory at the Rocky Mountain Research Station in Missoula, Mont. That’s 600 miles as the crow flies, but a great deal more on four feet.

    The wolverine, known scientifically as Gulo gulo, is the largest member of the weasel family, with adults weighing as much as 45 pounds. The males are known to travel great distances, keeping home ranges of up to 350 square miles. Studies in Montana have documented wolverines traveling 19 miles a day, and a wolverine in Norway once moseyed 83 miles in a day, ecologists said.

    Still, no wolverine has ever been known to waddle over the Rockies, through the Blue Mountains in northeastern Oregon, across the Cascade Range through Lassen National Forest and into Tahoe, as this one is suspected of doing.

    “He may have been looking for a female and not hit one and then just stopped in the Sierra because a lot of food was being placed out on these research studies,” said Keith Slauson, a U.S. Forest Service ecologist. “He could have done it, but it is hard to tell because their ranges are so expansive that we just don’t have a lot of research on them out here in the West.”

    There are problems with the theory. Trekking across snow-covered peaks is one thing, but the Idaho-to-California crossing requires a long slog through sagebrush-covered high-elevation desert, habitat unknown to wolverines.
    Alternative theories

    The other possibilities are not much better. The burly beast could have been kidnapped from Idaho and released in California, not an easy task given that wolverines are immensely strong for their size and have been known to defend scavenged meat against much larger predators, including bears.

    “Honestly, I am split down the middle on it,” Shufelberger said. “Both are far-fetched, but both are feasible.”

    Some theorists suggest that Idaho wolverines might have migrated centuries ago and lived undetected in California until now. They are, after all, loners who stake out remote territory, avoid people and feast on insects, berries, small animals and carrion.

    Which points out another wild departure from the norm for this wolverine, Shufelberger said.

    “The area that he’s at is a very high-snowmobile-usage area, one of the highest in the Tahoe National Forest,” Shufelberger said. “It surprises me that he is hanging out there. There are snowmobile tracks everywhere.”

    Nobody has yet figured out where the wolverine goes in the summer, and he has yet to be spotted in person. Recent pictures have shown the wolverine digging holes to cache food, an indication that he has plenty to eat.

    “I always have my eyes open, but his sense of smell is excellent, and he knows I’m coming before I’m close,” Shufelberger said. “I do feel sorry for him. People always ask when is he going to get a mate. Probably no time soon. These are threatened species, so it would take a lot to get another one moved in. The best we can do right now is learn as much as we can from him. “

  142. # 139: Current Issue – Vol. 90 Num. 11 – March 12, 2010 Rocky Mountain Oil Journal…..ATPG volume 3-11-10 was 5,048,040…..I think DVN takes XEC and FST they would have commanding positon in Cana-Woodford and Granite Wash. Volume in FST semms to have been strong here lately especially in relation to gas price.The just for fun May 35 calls in FST.

  143. choices — #140 short answer, yes.

    And i thought #130 was CUTE. Albeit, frustrated. I do think that patience and price targets are rewarded. You just have to have the conviction to step in and buy, on a red day when your prey wanders too close to your weed patch. Can’t forget to pounce!

  144. West – thanks, what horrible reservoir rock this stuff is, 6% porosity, wouldn’t have bothered with it 10 years ago.

    Pati – thanks for that story.

    Brings up the movie quote of the day:

    “Wolverines!”

    Hey BOP, did you see my question on the date on that lease sale?

    I have the MMR list of leases, 3 pages, single spaced, all around those targets but they of course have some holes to fill. Anyway, I think the sale is next week.

  145. z — you are correct. I had my dates and block #s scrambled together… and i just grabbed that number from the top of my head. Anyway, suggests a March 18th DJ update.

  149. Ski – missed it. I live in a land of depressed hoop dreams.

    Tom – thanks for that bit about NFX, surprised they didn’t make a stronger case for the S. Alberta stuff.

  153. … thanks, knew it to be up “a lot” but the figures move around a lot as well. Obviously they are filling up their version of an SPR and seeing rising demand. You couldn’t have OPEC cheat as much as they are on their now 15 month old quotas and not have imports into the U.S. rally without big Chinese demand.

  156. SD overshot my $8 tgt. off that RSI divergence….will be interesting to see where it hits resistance

  157. Jivey – interesting action on several of the mid and small cap gassy names into the close. Merger Monday spec.

  161. 123 elduque

    >PRGN CEO is still extremely cautious.

    I concur at the moment.

    Alot of ships were ordered a few years ago that are being delivered this year and next.

    Thats why NM locks in long term charters and stays away from the spot market

    When rates were really weak, scrapping picked up, but that slowed when rates improved.

    NM and dsx are taking advantage of the carnage buying new assets at 50 cents on the dollar.

    I will listen to the prgn call when i get a chance

  166. Good evening…I made a few changes to the JB charts as things continue to evolve…any feedback or suggestions are always welcome… I deleted the macro material in favor of covering more individual stocks…for example, I added 3 stocks tonight that are very interesting and that have actionable technical set-ups…

    CRZO
    COG
    CLR

    I also will attempt to add more intraday updates to try keep things more dynamically updated…the 30 min KOG and EXXI chart look great…

    Other charts updated…

    DVN
    KWK
    EXXI-30 min
    PXP-really looks better, looks like it really wants to move higher from here…
    SD
    HK
    SU
    TRGL
    UNG
    WLL-ascending triangle flag, looks like a near term breakout probable…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  167. 160/162

    good work by the cult working hard at midnight!

    Some have speculated that mmr hasnt updated as they will be bidding on leases next week

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