Wednesday Pause

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Market Sentiment Watch: The post 2Q lull continues with little in the way of economic data or industry news to move markets today.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Orange Charts for the Large Cap E&Ps
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio, formerly the $10KP II):

  • $17,400
  • 33% Cash
  • Positions for the quick view are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades:

SWN – Added (10) SWN APRIL $48 CALLs for $0.70 with the stock at $43.45, up 3% on takeover speculation. 99% of these rumors amount to nothing but both the stock (which I continue to own) and the premiums on options have a way of buying into rumors like this one that make sense for days on end. The quarter didn’t wow me but the stock is one of the best I know of long term so I don’t mind taking a shot at them getting taken out.

SWN - Added (10) March $45 calls for $1.15 with the stock at $44.40 on takeover speculation.

Later in the day COP said that it plans to grow organically and not via acquisition and CVX "current opportunities to acquire shale gas properties in the US do not fit the company's economic criteria."

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $12,900
  • 100% Cash (No positions)
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • NONE

Commodity Watch:


Crude oil eased $0.38 to close at $81.49 yesterday, fighting off earlier, larger declines.  After the close, the API released a somewhat bullish looking report (see below). This morning crude is trading up slightly on the following.

  • STEO Watch: The EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook was released yesterday and in it, EIA revised their global oil demand figure upward by 300,000 bopd to 1.5 mm bopd growth over 2009 levels. 
  • OPEC Watch: This morning, OPEC did the same thing, increasing its demand figure for 2010 by 100,000 bopd to a slightly more conservative growth target of up 900,000 bopd from 2009 levels.

Natural gas inched a penny lower to close the day at $4.52 yesterday. Warm weather continues to pinch gas price sentiment. This morning gas is trading of slightly.

  • Chu Champions Natural Gas: Speaking at IHS Ceraweek, the Energy Secretary referred to natural gas as an important bridge fuel to make electricity before other technologies are developed. 

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Street is at 108 BCF for tomorrow's report.

  • Last Week: 116 Bcf Withdrawal
  • Last Year: 111 Bcf Withdrawal
  • 5 Year Average: 79 Bcf Withdrawal
  • 10 year Hi: 141 Bcf Withdrawal
  • 10 year Low: 11 Bcf Withdrawal


Oil Inventory Preview

API Watch: Bullish on a mix of higher product demand and softer product imports. 

  • Crude: Up 6.5 mm barrels. Imports were shown by API to be falling substantially with refiner demand off slightly so go figure on the big build. Big builds are actually pretty common this time of year as the refiners prepare to ramp up throughput in advance of the summer driving season. 
  • Gasoline: Down 3.18 mm barrels. That would be pretty surprising and would send gasoline and crude flying today but I don't see it happening. What I do see is continued elevated demand now through Spring Break, with more families taking trips by car this year than last as the airlines stick it to the flyer in just about every way imaginable.
  • Distillates: Down 2.8 mm barrels. I don't expect such a big restock boosting demand to cause a number like this today out of the EIA report today. I am looking however for a continued slip upwards in demand from current levels before a seasonal decline sets in in a few weeks. 

Stuff We Care About Today

The Orange Charts - Large Cap E&P (I'll have the Mids and Smalls out later in the week)

Just a couple of quick notes as the charts are for reference purposes:

  1. SWN might be better included with the mid caps as many of the metrics here make it look expensive. Other than it's size SWN fits in better with the mids but you'll note at the end of the charts, SWN is a much more cost streamlined organization than the big caps and it is getting a $ / reserve figure because of this in terms of valuation.
  2. Valuations are not expensive and show considerable compression when you look out to 2011, which investors will be doing increasingly in the next couple of months.
  3. This chart will be archived on the tabs at upper left.

Other Stuff:

  • BEXP speaks at Raymond James this morning at 8:40 am EST.
  • CRZO earnings call 11 am EST.
  • KOG reports 4Q09 results Thursday after the close with a Friday call.

Odds and Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • Goldman modestly raises price targets on the coal group (ANR, ACI, CNX, MEE, PCX, BTU), ratings are Buys for all but ACI and MEE which are Neutral and PCX which is sell.

Interesting Reading Watch:

114 Responses to “Wednesday Pause”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    BEXP presentation in 20 minutes, new slides up, flipping through them now.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    BEXP presentation – no significant changes that I see.

  3. 3
    bill Says:

    mcf cfo dumped 20,000 at 55


  4. 4
    zman Says:

    BEXP Notes:

    A few new things:

    CLR Three Forks Well on the west side of Rough Rider area – very encouraged by what they are hearing about flows there.

    Adding acreage slowly in Rough Rider

    Expect results on 3 Rough Rider wells in next 2 weeks.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    BEXP – borrowing base about to be redetermined, expect base to rise. Don’t see a need to tap the revolver any time soon.

    Hedging with oil collars with floors at $60 and ceilings at $90 to $100.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Good morning. Guess everyone is bullish now. Greece turned out to be a “non-event” (as our friend, TED, told us it would be). And the credit market just keeps climbing, making it easier for companies to roll existing debt or issue new debt. This new debt will be used for eauity-enhancing m&a and/or stock buy backs, as we still aren’t seeing a compelling case for massive increases in capex (and therefore, employees).

    Anyway, thems my thoughts for now.

    Speaking of M&A, the KOG rumors have a solid base in fundamentals. KOG wants to be a “consolidator” of acreage, in it’s little corner of the world. Don’t think KOG will be bought (yet)… think they will be the acquirer. On the other hand, sometimes negotiations with an interested party can take a 180. Especially if that party is a patient, energy-savvy PE Firm (yes, they do exist).

    TechTrader is out with a 55/45 SHORT call for today’s day trade.

    HeadTrader would “play it by ear” with TechTrader’s call held at the back of your mind.

    Still waiting for an MMR DJ update. But haven’t heard anything (yet) about setting pipe and cementing. So, still a rolling “few days” off, it seems.

  7. 7
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Cramer favorite EQT has announced a secondary. Stock down 6%. Opportunity? Lack of interest?

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Tom – no opinion really on that name in general. Will have a look.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Market looks pretty bored/directionless to me.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    TPH out with positive comments on HAL…again, no joy moving that one so far.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Feedback from my guy in energy corporate M&A. Doubtful of realness behind the SWN rumor. Thinks the next deal will come of left field. Says foreign buying may be a sign we are about to see increased deal flow.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    I’ll adjust the catalyst back two weeks on the BEXP news.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    CRZO – good example of why earnings are less important than CF. EPS shows a big beat but it’s due to lower than expected DD&A which is a non cash expense. So your EPS is inflated, great, but cash flow is net income + DD&A + plus other non cash, so there’s no be based on that.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Note in the post I put comments from COP and CVX basically saying “we’re not the guys interested in SWN”. Note the action in SWN this morning. Interesting.

  15. 15
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all. The big move should come tomorrow and it should be down. The short term cycles are really on borrowed time. Only question is can we make a new high first. Resistance at 1145,1148,1150,1153,1158.

    My moan for the day:

    The same day the leaders in Congress praised Greece for slashing spending in that country, our leaders do the exact OPPOSITE and INCREASE our deficit spending and debt accumulation rate!!!

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Question of a new high probably hinges on oil in 30 minutes. I don’t think C getting a deal done is probably going to get a lot of people in the game.

  18. 18
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Top 4 positions with increase in short interest are all energy. STO +157.7%, SLB +126.4%, TOT +50.7% & ECA +33.3%. Liquid assets held by US Equity Mutual Funds now lower than ’07 peak.

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nicky — #15… hopefully, the irony is not lost on the American Voter. I am dumbfounded at the level of Spending Stupidity. Absolutely dumbfounded. What are they thinking???

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Tom – not seeing a big bump in my names though.

  21. 21
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TomDavis — about that liquid asset comment… that refers to money markets, right? I thind the flows have been into bond funds. As those yields continue to drop, money should flow out, looking for higher returns in riskier assets.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Wholesale inventories drop more than expected. Isn’t that a good thing by one way of thinking (more demand pull down inventories) and a bad by another (less inventory planned for less coming demand)?

    S&P at 1,145.

  23. 23
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Still small nibbling in your Ener21 right here for me.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Nicky – there’s your new high.

    SWN outperforming the group for a second day.

  25. 25
    RMD Says:

    There are lots of buyers of AEZ; apparently guessing the results of the HAL/Tong Trust well will be good.

  26. 26
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: 21 Yes only cash. Looks like they have to take risk.

  27. 27
    1520sbroad Says:

    #14 – SWN – m&a comments i got agree with yours. Lots of shrugs. Action is interesting here on day 2 though. Over 1 million shares done in 45 minutes.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    West – do you see anything on the CLR Three Forks well, the Obert 1-13H

    RMD – when do they report? Results on 1st well should be on that call.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    1520 – sticking with my plan to sell the March calls on Friday and the Aprils on Monday. The Marches are just under water and may easily go to zero if oil inventories disappoint today or gas tomorrow.

  30. 30
    1520sbroad Says:

    #29 – i have my position covered at $45. This rumor has helped but a deal would likely hurt my position. I would be truly surprised if they go out.

  31. 31
    Nicky Says:

    Z re # 24. Sorry I was’nt clear. By new high I mean above 1150.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Just looking at that CLR Three Forks well, which obviously serves as a catalyst for BEXP as it’s on the edge of R. Rider but there is no public data on the well yet, and wonder if this is the cause behind the recent strength in CLR which would make sense sense they immediately spud a well next to it, presumably in the Bakken (the Stedman well).

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Nicky – oh that new high, right, gotcha.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    EIA oil inventory report

    Oil just before report, 81.35, down a dime

    Crude: up 1.4 mm bbs
    Gasoline down 2.9 mm bbs – wow
    Distillates down 2.2 mm bbs – wow

    Crude imports: off 744 m bopd

    Gasoline: 8.99 mbpd, up from last week
    Distillates: 3.6 mbpd, down slightly

    Good report: Told you they set the bar low.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    More EIA…

    Crude at Cushing went from 30 to 30.6 week to week, first bump in awhile but not troubling.

    Glad to see imports peel back away as we don’t need them.

    This is a good report for oil and products and a good report for the refiners.

  36. 36
    apbd Says:

    Does anyone besides Lynn have confidence to buy more KOG before the earnings call?

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    APBD – I don’t trust this market, and I own enough for now despite some sales. I will add some after the call if I think it is warranted.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Crude up 75 cents now at 82.25. I could see that taking a shot at $85 in the near term and at that point I want to be at a higher % cash in the ZCAT.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    SWN tapping $45.

  40. 40
    RMD Says:

    28 don’t know. Probably waiting for final results, and maybe negotiating with HAL (or ??)on another financing package, and who knows what else. Remember, short leases here.

  41. 41
    RMD Says:

    40: my math got stock to $4, so I’m clearly out-of-it up here.

  42. 42
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Cats and dogs are arising: I don’t have a clue where the market is going. However when the dogs in my kennel such as REXI or SONC are starting to rise then something is up and it isn’t good — lol.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    ARD continues to form that low volume wedge after the breakdown. Pretty classic pattern, can go on for weeks or months. Worth watch as when it does break either way it should move by 5 to 10%, in my experience.

    Thanks for 40. BEXP was talking about a high number of short leases in their area (not theirs but others) which is allowing them to pick up acreage. If AEZ hits a big well that will run pretty hard as they are surrounded by a lot of undrilled land.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    BSJ – rising tide lifts the flotsam.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    MMR starting to move again, may draw EXXI out of the funk. Was looking at some notes on the next set of projects, closure on those structures (LaFitte, Captain Blood) is much bigger than Davy Jones.

  46. 46
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: So far happy with the bush I picked out. Good luck to you.

  47. 47
    bill Says:

    the hawk is up 2 % and sd up 1.6 %

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah, watching gas names up a little less than oil. Watching NFX trying to push out the top of the trading range for a 5th time now.

    WLL trying to break out of its little flag.

  49. 49
    RMD Says:

    I slept through the RAME conf. call, stirred slightly at the end when mgt railed about their cheap stock at 3X cash flow and multipple of reserve value. ZZzzzz.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    RMD – those RAME guys always do that. REXX too. GMXR too(announces tomorrow night), not a big fan of that. My question for that is always, “well then how come you haven’t gotten the market to see it? Maybe your aren’t selling yourselves right.”

  51. 51
    reefguy Says:

    49- the only management sleepier than ARD is RAME. Zzzzzz

  52. 52
    Nicky Says:

    gold suddenly nosedived.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Reef – have you ever listened to TSO…ouch.

    CRZO – who I happen to like as an operator putting the market to sleep today as well.

    KOG – say the JR note there on the quarterly preview. Basically say expect to hear about only 1 short lateral, shorter than the last one so expect a lower rate than the 1400+ of the last well. Might also get some color on the TFS well in the area, so, much like with the BEXP story, someone else drilling near their acreage will help to derisk the story.

  54. 54
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: For those of us non-traders I really enjoy your orange charts. I always like when you update your top ten dance card. There is no one I know that listens to more CC’s than you. If there have been any nuggets from the calls that jockey around a few of your names I would love to know. On your Long Term tab there are names you don’t talk about as much any more. So if there are some moving up your interest ladder and some moving down. I do not need alot of stats for backup. A light summary of CC season only if you have time and the inclination.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Tom – Thanks, am in the process of review some of that stuff.

  56. 56
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 54 My assesment of your orange charts is that none of the names stick out as a better value than the others. As it should be I guess.

  57. 57
    Nicky Says:

    Really need to get below 1142 or this can just continue to extend to the upside.

  58. 58
    reefguy Says:

    ?? is a metric ton 2000#???

  59. 59
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    The worst zzzz is Aldo Zucaro over at ORI. Zucaro is a brillant guy who has been around the block a few times. Listening to him talk is like a slow motion root canal. But if you want to know about the insurance industry you got to listen to him. I guess that is the reason for transcripts.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    58, it’s about 2,200 #

  61. 61
    reefguy Says:

    58- MT=2,204#

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Nicky – gain on oil just got halved as well.

  63. 63
    RMD Says:

    Neither RAME or AREX bothered to put in a PV-10 value, while CRZO just said it declined by $122.5mm due to writeoffs. The score is 0 for 3 in todays conf. calls.

  64. 64
    bill Says:

    oil, doing well, but the oil stocks aren’t moving for the most part

  65. 65
    West Says:

    KOG………BOP probably has better information than me so KOG would be buying. So just for conversation, KOG has or will spud 3Forks test at Mocassin Creek this week. At least 3 other 3fks discoveries in this area. Most are private companies which have applied to develop units for both BKN and 3fks. Major operator to north drilling a 3fks test as we I write. No way to know type wells till we start getting some production reports. I still think that STR has made them an offer above $ 3 back when stock was $ 2.50 which was rejected as to low. I would think that most buyers are trying not to be the high bidder. This is a perfect fit for STR as the Wyoming acreage is something that they can work with and has some value for them. Just something for discussion.

  66. 66
    Nicky Says:

    commodities maybe giving us the heads up Z. I never take my eye off gold now. It has been leading the market for months.

  67. 67
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #36 KOG…intraday..I know I’m a bit late to the party, but KOG has been stair stepping up the 20 period 5 min SMA all morning…looks like it’s currently flagging here at the double top high of $2.94, the daily and the 30 min look great…consider aggressive longs on pullbacks to $2.87…entry on the 30 min time frame, consider $2.79..

  68. 68
    milepost_43 Says:

    GPOR +12% last 2 days….CC yesterday..maybe an oil sands kicker…had a nice trade in Mar 10s..anybody follow?…

  69. 69
    RMD Says:

    Opps found AREX data in 2/23/10 release. Is there no updide here??
    AREX EVs:
    Edax: 6.3X
    SEC PV-10 2.93X
    Yr. end PV-10: .73X
    /Feb/10 production: $10,350/m

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    MP – apologies but not one I follow. Oil back to red on presumably profit taking, dragged the group lower with it. Odd mid day reversal after good numbers on crude.

    SWN still holding up well but the S&P looks to be giving up.

  71. 71
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    I love those analysts that change their price targets after the stock blows through those targets. This goes to show how stupid price targets are. It is sort of like drawning a bulls eye around the arrow, after the arrow has already landed.

  72. 72
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z what is your view on the frac spread. It has widen quite a bit lately.

  73. 73
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: 72 — of course I meant crack spread.

  74. 74
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: 72/73 never mind — read stuff from yesterday

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the update West.

    BSJ – Ok, let me know if you want more color.

    Stepping out to lunch for an hour.

  76. 76
    RMD Says:

    71 is so true. Arrow and bullseye is a great analogy.

  77. 77
    ratberto Says:

    Z- last Thursday you wrote:

    “Eld – I think if Davy works then the shale guys better get used to $4 gas being a high number for them until we see a concerted moved to natural gas as a transportation fuel in this country. Some of the shales work very well at that price, others will require cost compression.”

    Would you elaborate on the “if Davy works” part? I take from it (and it obviously stayed with me) that you believe that the gas supply would be materially increased by rapidly drilling Davy-like wells, enough to drive NG prices down. From the chatter on this site, it sounds like Davy will work, or at least something like Davy will work. If so, are you beginning to question holding long term positions in the shale producers? Or am I just reading too much into that statement? Or is it a longer-wavelength issue that doesn’t really apply to the next several years?

  78. 78
    DrLink Says:

    #68 MP if you go to http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/energyprospectusinc/

    Dan Wilson has a write up on GPOR it’s one of his sweet 16

  79. 79
    West Says:

    ATPG………..lots of near term call activity. Earnings tomorrow or Friday. May have press release after close today. Short interest as of 2-29-10 was 11.6 million shares so something gone happen.

  80. 80
    isleworth Says:

    Z- after lunch, any thoughts on ATPG ?

  81. 81
    bill Says:

    Q4 earnings will stink for ATPG but their future looks better.

    They more or less pre warned on 2/2/10.

    The market didnt like an ARD miss. ATPG shorts are betting they wont like an ATPG miss either

  82. 82
    bill Says:

    Speaking of ARD, it looks like the short term flippers are giving up on a bounce back

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    EQT – not interested.

    Re 77. Near term impact negligible, probably 3 years before you see meaningful impact on prices. Haynesville economics probably the most impacted but again, not much for quite some time. It will have to be more than just 10 wells sunk into Davy as well (adding 1 Bcfpgd), it will have to be that the play concept works at a number of the other analogous prospects.

    ATPG – no bet from me prior to earnings.

    ARD – still watching.

  84. 84
    isleworth Says:

    ARD heads to woodshed again……

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Hard to believe SU is still this sold off given where oil is. Nevertheless, chart looks lower, will watch for possible entry in mid $28’s.

  86. 86
    ratberto Says:

    83, re 77 – thank you

  87. 87
    elduque Says:

    NG actually up right now.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    So’s oil, pretty weird looking day.

    NFX and SWN acting well. SWN on deal rumor follow through, kind of rare you get a second day but like I was writing yesterday, I don’t mind owning the name and others probably thinking the same.

    MLPs and RTs up strong today again as well.

  89. 89
    elijahwc Says:

    ATPG: #79 & #81, and therein lies the conundrum. We have had a nice little run between 14ish and now since letting this little puppy into the kennel. I have resigned myself to pass on the trade and make this one an investment with another bite of the apple given a longer term view. If only things were easy. Arghh!

  90. 90
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Eli: 89 Is Einhorn still in the name as far as you know?

  91. 91
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TD — still there as of 12/31/09 13F

  92. 92
    West Says:

    TD on ATPG……greenlight capital 1.3 million shares, Aletheia added 2.1 mil last reporting period with total 5 mil now……www.mffais.com

  93. 93
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    West — thank you for your well updates in the FBIR area. Really appreciate it.

  94. 94
    tomdavis12 Says:

    91 – 92 Thanks

  95. 95
    elijahwc Says:

    TD – Sorry, just got back but note that you are in the warm embrace of BOP and West. To add, Greenlight is #5 on the hit parade of institutions. Interesting newer shareholder and value buyers, GMO (Jeremy Grantham)has started a position as well. Here is a really great site (free with registration) to follow insiders and institutions.


  96. 96
    DrLink Says:

    End of day,guess who is in the bottom of this list?


    Obviously there are other reasons to move to gas from oil that our present administration does not understand

  97. 97
    West Says:

    BOP what do u think KOG purchase of Peak would do to the price? I don’t have any kinda feel for how much their co would be worth , any ideas? They should be able to borrow the money without much problem, if they were inclined.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    NFX – interesting, just saw they spoke at RJ yesterday, will circle back with comments later.


  99. 99
    jiveyjr Says:

    NFX sprinting into the close

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    West — been pondering that puzzle myself. I can see a scenario where KOG goes up and stays up, goes up and then drops, and drops. The driving force seems to be how much do they (KOG) pay and how and when is it financed? I think Yorktown would take back some restricted stock and maybe some debt, leaving KOG to raise some additional equity. If it’s accretive, like the Mitsui acqtn by EXXI, then the stock should go up (which it did, initially, before announcing the all-equity financing). If the mrkt thinks they “paid too much,” the stock will take it on the chin.

    Guess I can come up with one scenario where the stock goes up, and 3 scenarios where it goes down. So, statistically-speaking, i guess the odds are that the stock would go down. But, as i would expect Yorktown to take back some stock, I think they will try to structure the deal to be as shareholder-friendly as possible.

    KOG doesn’t HAVE to buy. But Yorktown would like to close out the fund that Peak is in. So, that skews the odds in the favor of KOG longs somewhat.

    Tell you what, tho. You toddle on over to the KOG yahoo msg board and pretty quickly find it polluted with shorts and all their nasty little games. So, whatever the outcome, it will entail volatility.

    What do you think??

  101. 101
    elijahwc Says:

    Just took a research position in BALT. Carved out of Genco at the lower end of the range. Barron’s featured last weekend. Broke the ipo price but it sould be a great proxy for the Baltic Dry Spot, debt free with a nice yield to come. FWIIW The BDI has started back up nicely.

  102. 102
    West Says:

    BOP…I’m going to work on the Peak production information maybe tonight and see what it looks like. I do like volatility as a trader if I think my information is good. That KOG board is brutal isn’t it?

  103. 103
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    west — for sure. That KOG board is so swampy, I don’t even bother.

    I can see reasons to sell the rumor and buy the news. But there is always an exception to any rule. Would love to hear what you come up with.

  104. 104
    VTZ Says:

    FWIW – I believe the organized gold raid today was the cause of the selloff because as Nicky said it has been leading the market.

    That being said, there was no reason for it whatsoever and this is another example of manipulation at key technical points.

  105. 105
    VTZ Says:

    Just reading through the posts now:

    RE 85: Worries about the restart post-fire no doubt. Currently scheduled for April so they aren’t benefitting as much as they should be from the oil price up here. Losing 100 kbpd.

    I still think in the long term if you bought now you will be laughing in 5 years. It will be hard to find anything more negative to say about SU other than a lower oil price.

  106. 106
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Good evening…a few chart updates and perspectives…

    $SPX close up
    BEXP daily
    EXXI-30 min


    Interested to know if folks find the macro charts useful… bullish percents, $NYMO or if you would rather I spend more time on the specific stocks…any feedback would be appreciated…

    Zman…I was hoping you had an opportunity to get back to the e-mail discussed the other day…

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    zman Says:

    Not yet man, had some stuff crop up, tomorrow or Friday.

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    West Says:

    JB, I appreciate all the charts and know that it is a lot of work to keep up with them and it is very much appreciated. I had requested XEC , but you can drop it if you would like, it is always good to have a second opinion. I’m not as good as you but I know my way around. Thanks again.

  109. 109
    West Says:

    ATPG call activity…………In a separate ATPG call roll, an investor sold to close around 7,900 March 12.5 calls for around $6.60 per contract and bought to open the same number of April 15 calls for around $4.50 per contract. Investors who rolled the front-month position up and out by one month collected $2.10 per roll on a bullish bet that the stock could experience at least 2% of upside throughout the near-term (the investor makes money on this roll if ATPG shares close higher than $19.50 at April options expiration). The lower-strike front-month options are unchanged on the day, while the April 15 calls have gained 30 cents. These March 12.5 calls are home to current open interest of 9,000 contracts and open interest of the April 15 calls is 10 contracts, indicating investors closed the front-month position to open the April series.

    ATPG shares have climbed 12 cents to $19.03 on the day. The company did not announce any news today, and could announce earnings figures as early as tomorrow (analysts estimate an earnings loss of 12 cents a share), though the March 11 earnings date remains unconfirmed.

    Even though investors collected premiums on these rolls, rolling up to higher strikes suggests these investors maintain their bullish stances on the companies. Bullish rolls like these do not mean that investor should run out and buy SY or ATPG shares, but it’s interesting that investors are not yet finished with their options positions and expect further upside in SY and ATPG
    ……from http://www.onn.tv/volatility-overlays/looking-for-upside-in-sybase-nyse-sy-atp-oil-gas-nasdaq-atpg/

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    Jerome Blank Says:

    West…thanks much…XEC really looks good…

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    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Market Strategist

    Daily Grind.

    Today’s volume trends were similar to yesterday’s and much of the trading action is similar to what has become commonplace in 2010. The S&P 500 runs early, runs out of gas by mid-day, and then bounces around throughout the afternoon. The action is notably different from the strong trending tapes of 2008 and 2009. Back then, if the market was not going up, it was going down and vice versa. Once a directional move ran its course, the momentum usually turned full steam in the other direction. Nowadays, there is a good deal of grinding. Despite closing within 50 basis points of its 52 week high of 1150.45, it was the 5th highest close of the year. That is simply an indication of how significant this resistance level at 1150 is. It appears as though the options market also recognizes the significance of the level. The Vix rose today although the equity market was also up today. Apparently, investors are buying protection while waiting for a breakout or a failure at 1150 to lead to a move that has follow through and some momentum.

    Technical Talk.

    There are definitely some interesting trends emerging in the Commodities market and thus the Materials sector. The Dollar’s ability to hold its ground appears to have helped cap the upside momentum in the Continuous Commodities Index (CCI). The CCI failed its recent attempt to break above the 480 resistance level. Now it appears the CCI is setting up a potential Head & Shoulders top (chart below). As investors know, Commodity price weakness is a headwind for the Materials sector. Therefore, it is not surprising that a similar setup for a Head & Shoulders top is materializing in the S&P 500 Materials sector (chart below).

    To our surprise, Crude has been unfazed by the Dollar’s strength. This commodity has managed to levitate around the $80 level. From a purely technical perspective, Crude commodity is well positioned for an upside breakout. In addition, since it is viewed as a recovery play as well as the economic data continues to improve, it can still push higher (although at a slower rate) in spite of Dollar strength.

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    apbd Says:

    RE #36.
    Thanks Jerome. You don’t know how much we appreciate your hard work.
    Bless you.

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    skimo Says:

    Z, took the below from the CLNE 10K, while I understnd that management there has a certain perspective and story, I’d be interested in your assessment of the “surplus of supply vs demand”.

    A 2008 Navigant Consulting, Inc. study indicates that as a result of new unconventional gas shale discoveries from 22 basins in the U.S., maximum estimates of total recoverable domestic reserves from producers have increased to equal 118 years of U.S. production at 2007 producing rates. The study indicated a mean level of reserves equal to 88 years of supply at 2007 production levels. According to the report, shale gas production growth from only the major six shale plays in the U.S., plus the Marcellus shale, could become 27 billion cubic feet per day and as high as 39 billion cubic feet per day by 2015. Navigant has also indicated that development of the shale resources base has resulted in a substantial current surplus of gas supply compared to demand of as much as 11 billion cubic feet per day. These current surplus levels are 18% of annual average historical U.S. consumption levels of approximately 20 Tcf per year; providing sufficient gas supply to meet the requirements of all existing markets and to meet new market requirements.

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    pawn shops las vegas craig road Says:

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