05
Mar

Jobs Friday

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Market Sentiment Watch: Payrolls. Payrolls came in at down 36,000 vs the down 90,000 expected.   Unemployment came in at 9.7% and hourly earnings inched higher. Government payrolls actually declined by 18,000 which is surprising given the upswing in Census worker additions. This number was set up as an easy one to forgive on a disappoint due to all the snow. An upside surprise will lend itself to lots of talk along the lines of "the economy is stronger than people are giving it credit for". 


In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Storage Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - EXXI presentation thoughts, MCF operations update
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio, formerly the $10KP II):

  • $20,500
  • 40% Cash
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page quick views.
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • NFX – Added a second set of (10) March $55 calls for $1.20, with the stock just under $54. Stock had a good quarter but traded lower afterwards and is continuing to recover. Potential catalysts in the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of months but for now this looks to be breaking out on the chart and seems worthy of quick trade.
    • MMR – Added (20) more MMR March $20 calls for $0.35 with the stock flat on the day after a good presentation at EXXI.
    • BEXP - Added back the 20 calls sold Tuesday at $0.70 for $0.40 with the stock off a second day at $16.60 on no news and with the expectation of Catalyst List type news in the next 2 weeks.
    • MMR - Added another (20) March $20 MMR Calls for just under $0.30 with the stock at $17.95. See today's comments for further color here.

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $12,900
  • 100% Cash (No positions)
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • NONE

Commodity Watch

Crude oil eased $0.66 to close at $80.21 yesterday as the dollar mounted a modest rally after sinking back below 80 on the dollar index. This morning crude is trading up 75 cents after the jobs number.


Natural gas fell $0.18 to close at $4.58 yesterday after the EIA reported a smaller than expected withdrawal from storage. As you can see here, gas cracked recent support on the daily chart. The weekly chart looks less dire. See graphs and comments below. This morning gas is trading flat to slightly up after the jobs number.


Natural Gas Storage Review


ZComment: The gas storage number came in light to me and the Street but was still at the high end of the withdrawal range for this time of year (see graph D below).  Note that the weather was almost a match vs the year ago week on an aggregated population weighted basis and yet 15 more Bcf came out of storage. The simple math says that 2 more Bcfgpd is either out of supply or added to demand or some combination therein. I'm betting on mostly demand but some decline in supply which is not yet evident in the EIA supply data. We have about 1 month left in the withdrawal season and with continued normal to cooler than normal weather we should come in at or below the 1.5 Tcf mark.  At that time, when heating demand has abated and cooling load has not yet started, it will be telling to see how quickly we start to rebuild storage. Prices should be soft but not overly so as Spring prices go during this time.


 

Stuff We Care About Today

 

EXXI Davy Jone Presentation Thoughts:  See presentation here.

 

  • Potential pay ranges with aerial extent (acres) and potential reserves (TCF)
    • 100 feet 7,000 ac 1 Tcf
    • 200 feet 17,000 ac 6 Tcf - sounds like they are starting to use this number in print which higher than what they've been confident enough to put on the page before although it has been commonly stated as a ballpark estimate.
    • 300 feet 37,000 ac 16 Tcf
    • Then look at slide 110 for an idea of how big that is.
    • Geoscientist quote ~ "it has to be filled to spill pointThat 37,000 acres, 3,000′ of column and 250′ of pay.
      • they have not seen a water contact. That is a massive, underground mountain sized structure with a thick blanket of gas filled reservoir rock over it.  There is a pressure change here that says the gas is sealed in there.
  • What's that means to the interested parties at 250 feet of pay and using 10 Tcf just for a nice round number in the middle of that range above:
    • MMR - 26.2% NRI or net reserves of 2.62 Tcfe. At year end 2009 they had company wide reserves of 0.272 Tcfe
    • EXXI- 12.6% NRI or net reserves of 1.26 Tcfe. At year end 2009 they had company wide reserves of 0.457 Tcfe
    • PXP - 22.2% NRI or net reserves of 2.22 Tcfe. At year end 2009 they had company wide reserves of 2.157 Tcfe
  • FRACTURED - as BOP put it a gift, helps move the hydrocarbons, in this case gas into the wellbore.
  • Less hot that previously thought - easier to develop, also, depending on how much less heat we are talking about, could indicate a wetter gas stream - jury still out on that and I have my doubts its possible but their has been some conjecture. Liquids and a high BTU stream would further improve the economics.
  • They flared gas to the surface at the end of January, rumored before, now there's a picture of the flare on slide 112.

MCF Operations & Pipe Repair Update

  • Dude prospect spud mid February
  • New prospect on EI 10 - Eloise South - prospect spud March 2
  • Ship Shoal 263 completion underway, expect 20 mm/d add to production, which was 85 MMcfepd as of early February, by mid year.
  • Pipeline repairs underway for the 20" pipe that was torn by a dredge last week and forced the shutting in of the Eugene Island 11H platform through which over half of the company's volumes move through. Completion of repairs and restart of production expected by end of the month. Insurance covering repair costs.
  • Current offshore production is 33 MMcfepd, due to the pipeline issue, but is expected to be back to 75 to 80 MMcfe in April. They also have a small onshore piece which gets them back close to that 85 number above.
  • That's all pretty good news.  The loss of half of your production for a month is not fun but not the end of the world, and they didn't comment if business interruption insurance will pick up the tab on the volumes so I'd assume that it won't but either way, it's a bump in the road and little more. It should cause them to dip into their cash (still at $80 mm) a little more to keep their drilling program on schedule but that's not the end of the world. If the stock dips on the news that it will take all month to repair I'll look at going long as this is the lowest cost, most well if weirdly run little Shelf play I can find. Who knows, maybe they decide to tackle the ultradeep prospects underlying their leases as well down the road. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • STP - upped to Hold at Collins
  • LGCY - target upped $1 to $21 at RBC, ratings stays Outperform.

195 Responses to “Jobs Friday”

  1. 1
    skimo Says:

    MCF insurance covers the pipeline repairs, are they also paid for lost profits on production?

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Skimo – I’m assuming the answer is no. They may not carry business interruption insurance … a lot of companies dropped it last year after hurricane season was a no show. I don’t know if they ever had it but since they didn’t mention it in the pr one has to assume no. Not sure why their insurance is paying for it if it was someone else’s dredge that did it either and I would guess you could sue the insurance company of the owner of said dredge (that would be the U.S. government) but that might be a tough one.

  3. 3
    bill Says:

    skimo, I dont know the answer to that but id say no. the gas didnt go away, its just deferred.

    Its a sizable amount off line 45 mmcf per day which is more than half their production. 45 * 5 mcf = 220 k daily in cash flow times about 40 days about 9 m reduction in q3 revenue and cash flow.

    also 45 time 40 days means production will be 1.8 bcf lower from about a 8 bcf run rate or about 25 % lower.

    They did about 40 m last qtr ebitda. This qtr prices are better but as you know have gotten weaker over the last month. i was hoping for another 1 per mcf but since we are in the mid 4’s 75 cents might be the best we can hope for.

    So higher prices of 75 c on 6 bcf = 4 m positive to offset 9.0 m in production losses.

    Also , they could have dry holes on the 2 new wells which they expense.

    For these reasons, i have lightened up my position. i also wanted a more oiler exposure so i put the money in ard,pxp and exxi

    I still like mcf longer term and will get back in it at an opportune time.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Bill – you can claim it if you have the insurance for that. They didn’t mention so I assume they either don’t have it or didn’t want to chance lifting their premiums over such a short outage. Still think the dredge should pick up the tab.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Jobs number = Goldman knew, what’s that, four in a row now?

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Things that have really been beaten down, like an ARD, could/should get their pop today, with jobs out of the way and oil starting to look like it wants to test old highs for the contract around $85. If it does I will pull back to something like 75% cash.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch: ARD

    Pritchard cuts target from $40 to $36, rating stays Neutral.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Schiller to ring opening bell at Nasdaq.

  9. 9
    bill Says:

    >Who knows, maybe they decide to tackle the ultradeep prospects underlying their leases as well down the road.

    i never thought of that. I think Peak likes a quicker turn around from discovery to production.

    Take Nautilus for example. They spud it in November, announced the discovery in January, and expect it to be online in July.

    The deeper structures take over a year (best case) and 100 m to develop.

    But, they hold leases near Davy Jones, so it should hold value to somebody.

    Re thinking cash flow last qtr 40 m so worst case 35 m in this qtr is as you say >>”The loss of half of your production for a month is not fun but not the end of the world”

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Bill – was just thinking they farm out one of their leases to a high degree, say keeping 10% interest. If it comes in it’ll cost about what one of their wells does (to their interest) and produce net to them more for longer and up the multiple on their stock in the meantime. Then they just put how many ever straws into it that the structure needs over time, using cash flow as they go. Just musing and I know he won’t sell shares, go into debt to do this or like giving up operatorship (although they have done some of that). Anyway, with the right partners it would be interesting.

  11. 11
    bill Says:

    I spent a long time looking at ArD this week and beleive there is good value in the name.

    90 % oil, half unhedged with oil trading over 80

    For q1 last year they did

    qtr price/Boe production rev
    q1 35.55 568,021 20,193

    this year q 1 rev will be up 135 % to 47 m

    q1 2010 66.35 720,000 47,772

    and i think im too low on the 66.35

    Earnings will bounce back smartly.

    Shut ins and electrical problems are more of an issue in the summer.

    Yes they stressed the hell out of everyone and they are behind the curve with gathering but they are drowning in oil

    They will drill another 300 wells in 2010 and on record fro 30 % growth

    they did 2.3 m bbls last year with all the problems and 30 % more is almost 3,0 m bbls. q1 720 k production means they are well on their way to achieving that goal, imho

  12. 12
    bill Says:

    >They flared gas to the surface at the end of January, rumored before, now there’s a picture of the flare on slide 112

    Impressive looking but I dont know what normal is

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    That’s a steady duration is all the time on the slide tells you, 20 feet is not small but can’t construe much from it other than they have gas.

    If you want to see the world’s biggest flare take a look at the IOC slides.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch: EXXI

    Pritchard ups target from $22.50 to $25, rating stays Buy.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    ARD 6% now off the lows.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    MMR looking to take another look at the $18.50 high.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    ROSE – forming a flag with declining volume. As the volume gets very low these generally break one way or the other. My sense is that it has one more leg left in it and then it trades sideways for a month or two as we will have to wait until May for core data in the Bakken, but we should at that time get results on a bunch (maybe 6 wells) in the Eagle Ford, five of them in the condensate window.

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Pritchard — another analyst who is not seeing the forest for the trees at EXXI.

    sigh. Oh well. Maybe EXXI will fall back to $17.50 and I can scoop up more shares.

    If i could pick only one energy stock to hold over the next two years… i think you know what it would be.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    BEXP – Could have more well news next week but I suspect it will happen the following week. I expect the stock to remain the most catalyst driven name in the group. Which is where I want to be as we go into the “so now what shoulder season”. I plan on swing trading calls here around a base position this Spring. I plan on holding my common through at least their Montana test.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    BOP – BEXP? NOG? ROSE? Which one, I don’t know, lololol.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    SP 1130.

  22. 22
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all. Finally into the target area I have been talking about all week which as 1128 – 1143. We have a cycle that is extended to the upside but it can stay that way. I am still favoring the more bullish count. SPX has resistance at 1134, 1143, 1150.

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — i will put EXXI stock price appreciation over the next 2 yrs up against any and all of those. But, i know 2 yrs is about 20 lifetimes for most people in this mrkt.

    I expect traders to “sell the news” from DJ on EXXI. They are all worried that there isn’t a catalyst in the foreseeable future. Takes at least 240 days to drill one of these deep wells. That is all they are thinking about.

    I hope EXXI buys DVN’s offshore properties for $15/BOE or less. I would view that as positive. But, bet the shares would sell off on that too.

    One caveat — hurricane season. Comes with the risk of operating wells down in their neck of the woods… but it is a real risk. They are self-insuring this year… now that they have cash flow and decent availability on their revolver. Still, that risk never goes away. So, something to keep in mind.

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ummmmmmmmmm… crude is up a lot.

  25. 25
    jiveyjr Says:

    MHR inching up…bot a little of that a while back…

  26. 26
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #23 I believe the forecast is for a very active hurricane season…not sure this was the best year to self-insure…

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    good stuff, jivey.

    btw, feel better about “top ticking” yesterday?? πŸ˜‰

  28. 28
    Nicky Says:

    6 up days in a row on spx. hmmmmmmm

  29. 29
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #25…jivey…I’m growing a beard watching that stock and waiting for a pullback to support…

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Jerome – yes it is. National Geographic has a good piece on the new type of El Nino, the Modoki. Also, Joe Bastardi has a piece out calling for a very active season. Generally this results in delays of development projects coming on and little more, unless you get a cat 3 or higher up on the Shelf. Many rigs and platforms have been bolstered since Katrina and then again since Ike/Gustav. So I think it takes a big storm than usual to really junk things up. Play on this is OII as they get a big shot in the arm from repair work.

  31. 31
    bill Says:

    oil 82 wow

    ng at 4.50 is like 27 dollar oil isnt it

    makes ng for transportation look good

    is pickens plan (ng for trucks) viable

    Do they lose horsepower?

    Why isnt this embraced? Looking for arguments against

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — hurricane insurance is ‘spensive. None of the big guys buy it. You only buy if your banks tell you to… (debt + concentrated producing assets). So, while a real risk, it is actually a sign of financial strength to be able to “self insure.”

  33. 33
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 27…yep….feel really good about it…

    JB…thx for the charts man…love that book and vote every day

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah, on a BTU basis it is.

    Pickens plan for trucks – yes, I think viable. 1 Mcf at $4.50 = the power of 7 gallons of diesel (about $20). Electricity doesn’t have enough torque to get them rolling in the first place as the battery tech is not there yet so that’s out. Infrastructure is being built out but is not yet what I’d call widespread. Truck engines cost more but useful life is longer and they produce less green house gas than diesel. I understand there is big truck company interest but have not seen a big one sign on. I know some smaller fleets of service vehicles are signing (like AT&T). Cummins (CUM) has an engine, there’s another one as well which escapes my memory at the moment. CLNE is sort of the play on getting the installations in place but I think some of the Majors could do it at their current retail sites with a little capex.

  35. 35
    Dman Says:

    Z – here’s a blast from the past: any thoughts on CRK?

  36. 36
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #30, #32…thank you…I wonder if there are CME weather futures that can hedge that type of weather related risk?

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    BOP – many of them had it until last year, then killed it. I saw APC dropped theirs last year and they have big exposure to Canes.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Dman – nothing current, had planned to look when I get the orange charts out, which is now bumped to next week on account of soccer last night and subsequent margaritas.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    re 36. Absolutely.

  40. 40
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #33, jivey…thanks very much…

  41. 41
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 32…in my simple analysis of that risk I looked at how much lower all the costs were to drill and buildout and I thought hell, they could replace it all and still have a sizable cost advantage based on slide 16 in the event of another Katrina…….

  42. 42
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #37 — thanks for the additional color there.

    JB — MMR keeps bumping it’s head on 18.50. is that significant, somehow?

  43. 43
    DrLink Says:

    So is a big hurricane season EXXI’s achilles’ heel?

  44. 44
    baylor3217 Says:

    Jerome, thoughts on kog here? We’ve been here several times and fAllen back to $2.20. I’m wondering if were in that part of the cycle again. Oil seems to be getting toppy

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    ROSE – inching higher. I will probably take the rest of the Marches ($22.50s) off the table early next week as well as the Aprils (also $22.50s). Then I’ll look at reposition. Market seems a bit extended and pullback there will lead to a great pullback in some of these names that have run and don’t have immediate horizon catalysts. I’d like to get through Monday though with what I have left to see if any analysts will be willing to bang their ratings and targets higher on Bakken and EFS potential.

  46. 46
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG really making an effort to break that $2.60 barrier as I write this..I updated the KOG daily chart with comments…so far I’m really liking the price action today…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    DrLink – only if it hits there stuff in a significant way. It often sends oil and gas prices higher, especially if you have landfall along the Tx/La border and damage the refining there. We’re still a long way from the heart of the season by the way, September/October is generally the busy time with relatively few storms occurring at the beginning of the season in June.

  48. 48
    bill Says:

    Give me an oiler name other than Ard

    BEXP?
    KOG?

  49. 49
    bill Says:

    z ty for this

    I was wondering about it– so obviously this is huge for mmr as well as exxi

    * MMR – 26.2% NRI or net reserves of 2.62 Tcfe. At year end 2009 they had company wide reserves of 0.272 Tcfe
    * EXXI- 12.6% NRI or net reserves of 1.26 Tcfe. At year end 2009 they had company wide reserves of 0.457 Tcfe
    * PXP – 22.2% NRI or net reserves of 2.22 Tcfe. At year end 2009 they had company wide reserves of 2.157 Tcfe

  50. 50
    jiveyjr Says:

    SD showing a little upside on the intraday charts…noted a big RSI divergence building on the daily chart since end of January on this one…put a small bit on hoping for a bounce up to $8 or a little more…

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    “their” stuff.

    Thanks JB

    WLL and CLR are about 3/4 oily on production. DNR, BRY come to mind.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Bill – No problem. I will put together a Davy Jones notes page on the report tab to keep all this stuff quick at hand.

  53. 53
    baylor3217 Says:

    Re 46 I’m thinking about selling my kog trading shares today and waiting for oil to pull back

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Actually, I think I’ll raise cash in the March ROSE calls and maybe plan on buying them back if they swoon. I’ll hold the Aprils longer.

  55. 55
    DrLink Says:

    47 It just seems they have been nailed pretty bad in the past and I would hope that the wells /platforms coming back on line have been retrofitted to take another big one….

  56. 56
    bill Says:

    50 call me stupid

    but i bought more sd this am

    Sd viewed as a gas stock (and it is) and ward is telling the world he is oil.

    He bought 800 m of fst oil assets and thats where they will concentrate drilling in 2010

    2010 they are more than 80 % hedged for ng

    their balance sheet sucks and they are highly levered to ng prices

  57. 57
    milepost_43 Says:

    34 holding WPRT here….

    http://www.westport.com/about/partners.php

    Westport has strategic alliances with

    * natural gas fuel and infrastructure providers,
    * global automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs),
    * international government agencies,
    * universities and research laboratories, and
    * industry-related organisations and alliances.

    Our partners are helping make our business plan a reality. We share a common objective: to create clean transportation solutions that meet existing and future emissions regulations and targets for greenhouse gas reduction.
    Beijing Tianhai Industry Co. | Clean Energy Fuels | Cryostar | Cummins
    Kenworth | OMVL | Peterbilt | Volvo | Weichai

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    MP – thanks, that’s the one that was slipping my brain.

  59. 59
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: SD…you are far from stupid…I like the chances of this being a big winner at some point too and I’ll keep some of what I’m currently trading against this positive divergence…I looked at their most recent presentation last nite and they, as you say, are well hedged and why it is going down the toilet (excuse me chart)beats me

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Volumes look pretty light out there. Wondering what HT and TT are up to.

  61. 61
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #42…BOP, MMR, no major significane that I can see…hitting a bit of resistance on the print of the new P&F box…watching closely to see if a flag or bullish base is developing…

    As of this moment…totally, just a feel, but the whole group of stocks we follow just does not seem to be reacting quite as enthusiastically (did I spell that right?) as you would think given the $spx…things can change of course, at least Spx broke above those troublesome “stars”, perhpas indicating that the mkt may have enough momentum try to test that area of a double top near 1150….it’s that pesky $NYMO that I’m wathcing…

    RE: #44, baylor…funny, I was writing about KOG as you were sending the post…

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    TISDZ – up 21% today, volume not high but it normally trades by appointment anyway so 40,000 isn’t small. Someone obvioulsy thinks MMR is going to have positive news soon as is taking this back door way into the ultra deep play.

  63. 63
    Nicky Says:

    Volume on this move up is pathetic.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    63 – yep, I see it all the names. 1) It’s Friday, 2) earnings season is over so no catalyst there, 3) it’s been a big move since the recent “panic”. So buyers feeling a bit cautious and not showing up today is pretty natural. Who knows what the weekend holds from Europe, China, DC, Mars, etc…

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    TISDZ up 36%.

  66. 66
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    DrLink — yes. I do think hurricane season is EXXI’s Achille’s Heel. They need the cash flow to fund their operations, exploitation, and ultra-deep exploration. But, Kat/Rita was a 6-sigma event. Means it happens, but odds are very low it happens again. However, it’s one of those Black Swan things… it is a real (albeit low) risk. And it would totally mess up EXXI’s hair (meaning a very bad hair day). So, just have to keep that in mind. Perhaps buying some puts to get us through the season, might stand in for EXXI’s lack of external insurance.

  67. 67
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    What is different this time around (for EXXI) is that while a Kat/Rita event would mess them up, it wouldn’t BK them. That is a big diff.

    Still, a longer-dated, way outta the money put is not a bad idea. Just to get us thru Sept.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZCAT – ROSE

    ROSE – Sold the remaining $22.50 March Calls for $1.50, up 193%, on the mid with some difficulty, with the stock at $23.60. I continue to own April Calls and the common.

  69. 69
    choices Says:

    Thanks for the work on your charts, Jerome-voted.

  70. 70
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — presented at TW in Denver yesterday. My buddy had a 1-on-1. Said the story now is “better than he thought it was.” He has been a KOG holder (institutional) in the past. But sold. Thinking about getting back in. So, sounds like a nice endorsement to me.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Re 70 – thanks for the color. Did he provide any details what sounded better to him? Was it incremental to what we think around here or just new to him since he left?

  72. 72
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #70, BOP thank you for the update…is your dad still holding?

    TAT… I updated that TAT daily chart perspective…I’d like to add if the stock pulls back to $3.10…see chart…

    Re: #69, choices, thank you…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  73. 73
    elijahwc Says:

    With a tip of the hat to Bill and West, and a nod to Buffett who said “”Try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them because sooner or later one will.” , I am going to add ARD to my dogs with fleas holdings (ATPG MHR TRGL ERHE).

    Also, on MHR, please remain aware that a drive by financing becomes more probable above $3.

  74. 74
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — my dad and I both still own KOG. It is a fairly low-risk way to have exposure to oil prices (no debt and no near-term funding requirements).

    z — i was on the phone when he left me the msg (bewteen his mtgs). I called back immediately, but missed him. Hope to catch up on the deets today.

  75. 75
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    VTZ: Another Cardium Jr buyout —
    Today Daylight Trust has agreed to buy West Energy (WTL.TO) for either $5.50 in cash or .465 of Daylight Trust or a combination thereof.

    WTL.TO was one of my fav buy it is now gone. I think I am going to take the cash, but that is not set in stone.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZCAT – EXXI

    Sold the (2) March $15 calls for $6.30, up 16%.

    Added (20) April $22.50 calls for $1.50 on the low side of the mid and very easily, with the stock at $21.40.

    I continue to hold March $20 calls, these new Aprils, and the common.

  77. 77
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elijah — every time you post the Dog with Fleas Portfolio… i get that piano tune in my head (“MY dog Has FLEAS”). When you’re a kid, it used to be the first thing you could play on a piano… before you learned “chopsticks.” Any chance you know what i’m talking about?

  78. 78
    Jerome Blank Says:

    ARD…from here ARD needs to print $35 to go back into X’s on the current P&F sell signal…once $35 prints a meaningful base could form…

  79. 79
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI and MMR doing the Texas Two-Step again today. Moving together nicely.

    PXP… add it to the Dog With Fleas bone pile. What an irritating stock. It gets kicked to the curb here soon.

  80. 80
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE:75 Sorry I should have mentioned that there is going to be a proration on the cash allowed. A total of 115 mill of cash is going to be issued in total so at the present each West shareholder would get about 5.30 in cash.

  81. 81
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #79 meant to say “back to doing the Texas Two-Step,” as they have been outta sync the last coupla days.

  82. 82
    elijahwc Says:

    BOP you are in tune, correct? I had to look it up.
    http://www.ukeschool.com/ukulele/tuning/my_dog_has_fleas.html

  83. 83
    1520sbroad Says:

    KOG – earnings next week – odds of a catalyziation? Wells 11,12 or anything else?

  84. 84
    choices Says:

    On a strong day in energy, CRR remains weak-understood that their business is strong-service stks in general seem to be picking up-have you looked at CRR recently, Z.

    Thanks.

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Elijah — are you kidding? I was laughed out from the Geology Field Trip Campfire Circle for not being able to keep up my part of “Ba-ba-ba, Ba-Ba-ber-ann.” It was a long time ago… but i still have the scars. πŸ˜‰

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    CRR – I did not listen to their call but understand they are still in high demand. BEXP telling everyone in the Bakken they are using ceramic now over sand, think it just holds up better longer, leading to bigger EUR. Don’t have much to add though until I do some reading.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    1520 – I think 11 but not 12 yet as 13 is still drilling last I saw. I have 12 as a maybe on the Catalyst List but I’m thinking it’s later. Wouldn’t they complete 12 with 13 BOP?

  88. 88
    VTZ Says:

    Yeah I saw BSJ. Congrats on the buyout. I didn’t hold any West. Should keep the group moving though.

  89. 89
    bill Says:

    79 LOL

    PXP is frustrating. Everytime i thought it was going somewhere , they did an offering

    The stock was 32 pre davy jones, so it got 1.75 from it

    Ng for the most part isnt hedge in 2010 and last year they had ng hedged at 10 so they will have a hit to pl on ng sales

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    MMR trying to get through that level. Was going to add to my $20 calls but the offer disappeared higher and between the MMR and EXXI calls I probably have enough exposure going into the weekend.

  91. 91
    bill Says:

    BOP had this for us last night

    Goldman is putting their money where their whispers are… ahead of tomorrow’s jobs number. Exchange from HeadTrader and PitTrader
    β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”-

    14:30] GSCO is quietly buying spoos. over 1000 spoos bought into the bond close.
    [14:31] Retail is shorting. GSCO is buying. The odds on that short working for retail is 1 in 100
    [14:32] Yes, you assume that GSCO ALWAYS know the news. ALWAYS.
    [14:45] GSCO 3 Retail 0 This is news?

    Helluva a good call!

    gsco now 4 retail 0

  92. 92
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    VTZ: I just sold my position on the market — I can decide if I want to buy Daylight Trust later.

  93. 93
    choices Says:

    CRR-cmts from Q4/y/e09 release:

    Integration of Falcon may have something to do with the weakness.

    “Currently all of our plants are producing at capacity. The growth of the resource plays and the increasing desire to maximize conductivity continue to have a positive effect on the demand for our product offerings.”

    “Separately, during the fourth quarter we incurred costs associated with the substantially completed integration of our recently acquired business, Falcon Technologies. We are excited about the growth prospects for this business and are seeing increased customer acceptance of this technology in the resource plays.”

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    MMR at 18.60

    KOG is looking nice JB, still own a good slug despite having sold some around this level.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Reef / BOP thanks for all the incremental and continuing color on the Triad, made bank on it, making more as they move higher today.

  96. 96
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE:31 — one of the biggest arguments against nat gas for trucks is that nat gas vehicles have much shorter driving range and need much more refueling stops. For a local vehicle like a bus this might not be a problem, but it might be for a longer haul trucker.

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    BSJ – I wonder if the about 6 to 1 savings on fuel costs would prompt them to be willing to stop for fuel more often.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Here is a site that totally refutes Pickens claims on natural gas.

    http://wasteage.com/mag/waste_trucks_fueling_diesel/

    I think they are confused and mistaken regarding the fuel cost issue.

  99. 99
    RMD Says:

    Opinion poll: the upstream MLPs are reporting 3 versions of PV-10, as per VNR’s release: reserves PV-10
    BCFE $mm

    new SEC method 143 $179
    12/09 spot 157 331
    12/31/09 strip 165 454

    I’m working on an MLP theory, catalized by a Jeffries piece referring to their “massive premium(s) to underlying asset values”. Clearly mgts would use the strip pricing. What do you think, and why? (I’ll post results after I run them through mgts for discussion. This is part of figuring out if and under what conditions they can grow production/share.)

  100. 100
    elijahwc Says:

    BSJ Congrats on West Energy. I think I’ve owned every name up there with the exception of WTL.A. lol. Did get settlement on Berens yesterday however and note that mighty PBN has made two high dollar acquisitions since the BEN.T deal. PBN seems to be reaching to me, but what do I know. Maybe DAY for WTL bears this out. Now I’m thinking maybe Bellatrix BXE.T. Is this a name of interest?

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    CXPO – still watching, down 3.3% today, waiting for an entry sub $3.

  102. 102
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE:97 I don’t know, it would have to been one of those spread sheet things cost savings vs potential expense — sort of like buying WHX or not — lol

    I do understand that refueling with nat gas does take longer than with diesel and the on off freeways and freeways congrestion etc might make some difference in some companies thinking.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    RMD – have you spoken with Swink on the matter?

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    BSJ – I still may buy WHX, heck of yield, decline is subtle, thinking to park some yield needing cash there for a year or two.

  105. 105
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Re: 100 — Absolutely I just bought a little more of BXE on Monday. Now that WTL is gone, BXE (at least among the jr) is one of my favs. Among the jr also check out VRO and NGL and don’t forget PWE. Of course all these stocks have had big runs and the value investor in me would only buy on pull backs. PWE for one has had a real nice move of late.

  106. 106
    Jerome Blank Says:

    WRES doing well today, refusing to go lower… up 5% and back into the channel…

  107. 107
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z: I think WHX says it will take about 11 years to get to the production figures for it to disolve. So the key question is what price do you think oil and gas will go over the years. WHX is 56 oil and 44 gas. To get a good idea of what high price oil and gas would do for the distributions, you might want to check out the 2008 time period.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    WRES – Taking a break from that story for awhile.

  109. 109
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — thx for the WRES update. Didn’t see any reason to sell that one for a loss (bought just before earnings, much higher than z). But, don’t see any reason to hold for the long run either. So, keep us up on that name… helps with the exit strategy.

  110. 110
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – thanks for 87 ahead of KOG earnings next week. I own a small position – makes me a little twitchy when i can’t sell calls…

  111. 111
    RMD Says:

    103 No, I haven’t. Who is Swink?

  112. 112
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    I think if one bought WRES because of the reserve story, you would have to have sold that stock either yesterday or today.

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    BSJ – I’ve run the numbers back 8 quarters there. Pretty comfortable with the yield this year and next. Operating expenses have been coming down more quickly than volumes. As we move into the second half of this year I’m looking for prices to gravitate towards a slightly higher trading range on both oil and gas. Next year I’m thinking oil higher again and gas firmer, especially in the back half of 2011.

  114. 114
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — just for grins… i think MMR makes a run for the border, just before close… on the chance there will be a DJ update PR on Monday. Using your massive charting skills, where would you bet it could run to today?

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    BSJ – true, and the fundamentals are starting to be repaired. I just had other things to do with that position and it had done well and I think they still have some things to learn about conveying their message… their style just kind of bugs me.

    RMD – ask Eli about them.

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BSJ — yeah. “Sell and move on” is the professional game plan. On the other hand, didn’t think it would stay down at 2.35 either… operations were OK. Oily name. So, i broke all the professional investor rules and held… thinking i would make some back over the next few days.

    Amateur move, I know. But it worked.

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    I think ROSE runs up into the close for possible over the weekend upgrades.

    MMR, EXXI, BEXP (to a lessor extent) for potential news next week.

  118. 118
    West Says:

    CLR appears to have 3 Forks discovery in 13-155-104 on the ND/Montana border. The NDIC filing initial rate 440 bopd , est EURs 354mbo and 460 mmcfg. They are presently drilling a Bakken test running due south from this well. They have applied for Bkn/3Fks unit covering 16 sections along the border and back east. This well is approximately 3 miles west of BEXP’s Squires Bkn well in 103-155.

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    Thanks much West, running over to NDIC to find that on the map now.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    West is that the Stedman 1-24H well?

  121. 121
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    BOP: you could also hit when holding 17 in blackjack and get 21 — lol

  122. 122
    elduque Says:

    Z- I assume you like TAT at 3.16

  123. 123
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hmmm…. game of chance vs rising longer-term oil prices, decent operations, down on a down-energy day. Yeah. Good comparison!! πŸ™‚

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    122 – yes.

  125. 125
    West Says:

    I think that it is the 1-13H. They are currently drilling the 1-24H which is a Bakken test.

  126. 126
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: VQ has really been on a tear lately. I wonder if the reason is that its plan to sell its remaining interest in Hastings is doing well?

  127. 127
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    In all fairness, 99 out of 100 times, when you buy something and it doesn’t work out the way you think, you sell immediately. Sometimes that 100th time, tho, you have good reason to hold back and wait for the smoke to clear. That’s all.

    WRES didn’t deserve to go up… but it didn’t deserve to do down 10% either. This is what separates “actively-managed” from “computer-driven.” I just let the computers (or whatever) sell, clear the room, then make a graceful exit.

  128. 128
    West Says:

    BEXP #16-21 1-H in 16-155-103 reported 11,000 bo production for the month of December.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Thanks West, got it, that’s right next door. BEXP has a number of wells permitted closer to this well.

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    re 128 – that’s quite the decline, wondering if production was continuous or they had an issue.

  131. 131
    bill Says:

    comrade chavez

    http://www.tradewinds.no/firstpage/article554827.ece

    cant he make money with 80 dollar oil

  132. 132
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #109 WRES…BOP… I added analternative daily perspective on WRES to better frame shorter term support and resistance…hope this helps…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  133. 133
    bill Says:

    cow flatuance now this

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100304/sc_nm/us_climate_methane

  134. 134
    West Says:

    #130, unspecified # of days in December. BEXP is now drilling BKN test in 13-155-103, Arnson #13-24 1-H. Part of this area is AMI between the two companies and they are jointly developing these leases.

  135. 135
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — thanks! (voted)

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    ROSE tapping on $24, still holding the Aprils and the common.

  137. 137
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #135, BOP thank you…

  138. 138
    RMD Says:

    JB voted. thanks.

  139. 139
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #138, RMD thank you…

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    Oil rigs flat week to week.

    Gas rigs up a whopping 21. Going to add more HAL.

  141. 141
    zman Says:

    ZRADE – ZCAT – HAL

    HAL – Added 10 more HAL March $32 calls for $0.66 with the stock at $31.80. Strong rig count action serving as the back bone of my thesis that North American leveraged service names, especially leveraged to the gas market, is gaining traction in terms of pricing power and the stocks have been lagging this move.

  142. 142
    elijahwc Says:

    #139 I taught RMD how to vote. Brilliant mind but technology impaired.

  143. 143
    reefguy Says:

    CXPO- the big Devon HY well they had an interest in went from 30 MCFPD ip to 6MCFPD in 30 days….

  144. 144
    zman Says:

    Reef – yep, what have they done for me lately? lol. When they get below $3, it should be about time for some EFS results from them.

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    ROSE $24+

  146. 146
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    This is me… on the platform… waving a handkerchief at the ROSE Train as she chuggs away. Ooops. That was one I should have jumped on. The multi-layered oily formation play should be a gift that keeps on giving.

    That was a great call, off the near-term low, z.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP – getting read to punt the rest of my calls here and hold common, and await the coming pullback.

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZCAT – ROSE

    ROSE – Sold the 10 April $22.50 calls for $2.30, up 106%, not concerned about the name or the run it has had, more thinking the broad market could be due a rest next week and I’ll get these back lower. They don’t have an extremely near term catalyst and in that lull that follows earnings we could see names that have run book profits.

  149. 149
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Political comment for Friday… what happens when the tick grows to be larger than the host dog??

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-03-04-federal-pay_N.htm

  150. 150
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    still trying to figure out if MMR will run at the end of today, on thinking there could be news out on Monday (there could, but i think it will take a little longer than that). Not getting any takers in the conversation tho.

    anyone?

  151. 151
    zman Says:

    BOP – see 117. And I added more EXXI calls today as well, so I think so.

  152. 152
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — i did see that. Thank you for playing.

  153. 153
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 149; guess we can’t outsource any of those jobs to India huh?

  154. 154
    baylor3217 Says:

    re 147, since we all know that a pull back is likely imminent in ROSE, why not buy some puts here and trade it from the other side as well?

    Seems as low risk as calling for a “bottom” and buying calls.

  155. 155
    skimo Says:

    Z congrats on selling 22.50 roses, my 20’s sold at intrinsic value at 4. Market wouldn’t pay premium but still a darn good return for a 10 day investment. πŸ™‚
    Thanks for all your analysis.

  156. 156
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #114 BOP, sorry for the delay in response…dailing down to the 5 min, MMR is basing at the 20 period intradsy SMA as I write this, I’m thinkning that if MMR holds here it might try to take out the intraday high which I have as $18.76…if it can’t hold support into the last hour…I think it holds at next support $18.50 which was resistance from earlier in the day…

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    Baylor, for me at least several reasons:

    1) I don’t like calling tops or bottoms, don’t think I called a bottom the other day there, just knew that news was coming and thought the rumors of things there going awry were off base.
    2) I think there is a good shot the stock catches more upgrades and Monday is generally a good day for them. I booked it because it had run enough for me for the time being and I ultimately think it goes higher.
    3) It may work for some people to do that but it just about never does for me. I’m not that TA oriented and so for me to do that is what I call “getting too cute” … I’m just not that good of a trader.

  158. 158
    zman Says:

    re 155. yep, noticed the in the money call premiums collapsed on the run higher, rather quickly too. Glad it worked for you. I particularly enjoyed the move Monday and the fact that it held up all week and is closing at the high of the week as things stand right now is pretty positive on the sentiment scale. I will be pretty active in the name during the Spring and Summer and I still own the common.

  159. 159
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP 150 New high is never a bad signal.

  160. 160
    isleworth Says:

    SandRidge Energy (SD) Director bought 90,000 shares at $7.65-7.80 on 3/2-3/3.

  161. 161
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — didn’t mean to bug you (well… maybe i did). Just think highly of your technical input. For some reason, I think MMR could take a run at 18.90 or so, if it gets up a good head of steam into closing. But most definitely talking-my-book. Added those trading shares yesterday. Just noodling what to do with them.

  162. 162
    zman Says:

    Thanks Isle.

  163. 163
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TomD — good point. HeadTrader says New Highs get a lot of attention from the technical and mo-mo crowds. So thx for the reminder.

    Funny thing is, maybe a Tribe of Wild Mo-Mos chase MMR through the jungle… but, it’s still undervalued here. Unless you squeeze your eyes shut and absolutely completely ignore DJ… and BBE… and BBH… and about 15 or so other ultra-deep prospects.

  164. 164
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 160…director’s name was Bill Gilliland..anyone know who that is???

  165. 165
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Managing Partner of GillcoInvestments… looks like an energy hedge fund.

  166. 166
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #161, BOP thanks much for the compliment…S&P futures trying to break out of a 30 min flag, but a good number of our names seem to be acting sluggish…MMR still holding the 20 perod SMA, EXXI trying to find an intraday bottom..

  167. 167
    zman Says:

    Bidding/adding more MMR calls in here

  168. 168
    Patipati Says:

    Jerome, thank you for the charts/vote every day. Could you look at ANR?

  169. 169
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #168, Pat, thank you…I actually have to leave early today to pick up my daughter from school, but I’ll try to take a closer look over the weekend…

  170. 170
    zman Says:

    Housekeeping Watch: We’ll be sending out some bills this weekend, if you get one you know what to do. If you have somehow slipped through the cracks and are getting a free ride, you’re about to get cut off as we will be switching to a new user tracking software package that is more precise than our current system. If you are unsure of your current status please send an email to Petra at zmanadmin@gmail.com or zman@zmansenergybrain.com. Please do not respond here as I don’t handle that stuff anymore. Thanks.

  171. 171
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZCAT – MMR

    Added (20) more of the March $20 calls for $0.44, with the stock at 18.70. Average cost is now $0.37 here.

  172. 172
    zman Says:

    West – thanks for the color on the far west North Dakota Bakken stuff today. I plan to take a minute each day to start reading the activity reports, usually get around to it when I can but it doesn’t take long and it is worth the effort.

  173. 173
    zman Says:

    MCF up 5 cents all day on a whopping 27K shares. Thin.

  174. 174
    zman Says:

    S&P 1139, next Nicky resistance 1143.

  175. 175
    elijahwc Says:

    CHK – “There is no similar share issue in the works, Mobley said”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0513863720100305

  176. 176
    Hoss Says:

    Listening to Mariner call:

    “we’ve also developed a JV with a private company with a 50% WI in 60,000 net acres in the Mowry/Niobrara play in Wyoming. This is an oil shale prospect and we have committed to drill three (3) wells there over the next twelve (12) months.”

    Anyone know who the partner is?

    TIA

  177. 177
    RMD Says:

    170: major companies about to sell out to EXXI for big $$ outsource administrative minutia?

  178. 178
    zman Says:

    I’ll tell Petra to put your account at the top of her list.

  179. 179
    zman Says:

    Don’t know when NOG reports (pretty much has to be in the next two weeks), looking for a potential ZIM trade on those results, may take a little in the ZCAT before the call as well.

  180. 180
    bill Says:

    ng production expected to be flat in q1, up in q4, give an attaboy to chk

    U.S. natural gas output for some of the largest domestic producers inched up sequentially in the final three months of 2009 from 3Q2009, according to a survey issued Friday by SunTrust Robinson Humphrey/the Gerdes Group (STRH).

    STRH analyst John Gerdes and his team surveyed 49 U.S. natural gas producers for the quarterly survey. The 49 companies, according to STRH, account for an estimated two-thirds of domestic gas production after grossing up for royalty/working interests.

    The surveyed companies’ U.S. gas production quarter/quarter rose as the gas rig count jumped 7% to average 738 rigs, STRH noted.

    “Our 4Q2009 production survey suggests a 0.3 Bcf/d (0.9%) sequential increase in U.S. natural gas output” from 3Q2009, which Gerdes said conforms to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data “suggesting a 0.9% sequential rise in production. The 49 surveyed firms constitute approximately two-thirds of domestic gas production after grossing up for royalty/working interests.”

    According to the STRH survey, the rise in output “implies a 0.5 Bcf/d sequential increase in overall U.S. output assuming the private independent capital spending and production is comparable to the surveyed companies.”

    “Exceptional” quarter/quarter growth was delivered by Chesapeake Energy Corp., EnCana Corp., Southwestern Energy Co., Petrohawk Energy Corp. and Questar Corp. “principally related to the Haynesville/Fayetteville shales,” Gerdes said.

    According to STRH’s survey, Chesapeake led all U.S. gas producers, producing 2,440 MMcf/d in the final quarter, up from 2,266 MMcf/d in 3Q2009. XTO Energy Inc., which, even though its output fell quarter/quarter, still wrangled the second-highest spot with 2,367 MMcf/d in 4Q2009 from 2,421 MMcf/d in the prior period.

    BP plc ranked third in the survey, producing 2,313 MMcf/d in 4Q2009, compared with 2,278 MMcf/d in 3Q2009. Fourth in the survey was Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which saw its output fall to 2,076 MMcf/d in the final period of 2009 from 2,144 MMcf/d in 3Q2009. Rounding out the top five was Devon Energy Corp., which produced 1,893 MMcf/d versus 2,000 MMcf/d in the prior quarter.

    “Looking forward,” said Gerdes, “coverage company analysis, elevated level of 4Q2009 completions relative to drilling activity, year-to-date stabilization in the Haynesville Shale rig count and the underlying decline associated with a higher base of Haynesville Shale production suggest 1Q2010 production should approximate 4Q2009 output.”

  181. 181
    zman Says:

    Thanks for that Bill.

  182. 182
    skimo Says:

    Z, I’m thinking about getting back into EOG options on a pullback opportunity later this month to capitalize on any catalyst impact of their April conference call (remember-Papa’s answer to every relevant question during the Q4 call was to wait until April for management’s response).
    Your thoughts?

  183. 183
    Nicky Says:

    I am looking at the 1143/44 area for early Monday. 1150 at an absolute push. Then I see a pullback lasting at least a day and a half. Looking for the 1117 spx area.

  184. 184
    bill Says:

    Z any comment on this re mcf

    This well was spud March 2, 2010 and will test the Rob L sands we see in our Eloise North well, and is being drilled in a location so that upon depletion of our Eloise South well, our well bore will be completed up-hole and produce in the Cib-op sand as our Dutch #5 well.

    Does this mean

    A: Finding gas is a sure thing
    b: Any gas found wont be produced until Eloise South well is depleted?

  185. 185
    zman Says:

    Skimo – I am going to wait 3 or 4 weeks and probably do the same thing.

    Nicky – thanks much.

    Bill – A) no, it just means they see something similar on seismic in the prospect as they saw in a well bore and they are going to test it.

    b) It sounds like they mean they’ll drill through the Cib-op (series of sands) down into the Rob L sand, complete there and upon depletion of that zone, they come up hole, perf and produce the shallower zone. So we have stacked pays with something interesting deeper, if that doesn’t work out, they have the shallow bailout zone in the CibOp. I’m mostly in the dark as they don’t have a cartoon of this on their website that I’ve seen but I used to follow guys who drilled up the Rob L (and other letters of the alphabet) a long time ago and it sounds like what they are saying.

  186. 186
    zman Says:

    No real run for the Triad. Got lucky on my deep in the money EXXI call exit and adding of the Aprils before it peeled back is not a concern to me. Loaded for bear on the MMR for potential news next week.

    Beerthirty – have a great weekend.

  187. 187
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nope. My Evil Trading Plan for MMR today fizzled.

    But, that’s ok. Think we get another bite at that apple next week. Should be an interesting one.

    cheers!

  188. 188
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Besides, who knows? Maybe someone will buy PXP over the weekend and put an end to my misery.

    So much, to look forward too!!

  189. 189
    choices Says:

    Anyone have this one? heh

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=scok

  190. 190
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices… do you? wowsers.

  191. 191
    isleworth Says:

    Rocketship!

  192. 192
    bill Says:

    185 thanks

    pxp filed a shelf offerring s3 after hours

    flores likes to raise cash and dilute every chance he can get

    i think punting pxp is a good idea

  193. 193
    zman Says:

    Bill – he has to replace the cash he sent Aubrey. Ugh.

  194. 194
    choices Says:

    #190-BOP, unfortunately no but I have no doubt that the gut renching volitility would have run me out long before realizing the gains-understand that it is a Berkshire Hathaway company but cannot confirm.

  195. 195
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — no sign of it being a Berkshire company. But someone sure must be happy.

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