Wednesday – Oil Inventory Preview and Other Stuff

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Song of the Day Watch

Ecodata Watch: CPI came in in line with expectations at -0.1%, Empire State Index came in improved at negative 14.7 from negative 38.2 last month.

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  5. Stuff We Care About Today
  6. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: No changes yesterday.


Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell $0.64 to close the day at $49.41. Consensus among traders seems to be forming around a near term trading range of $45 to $55. I think crude will like test $45 again (possibly today if the EIA numbers approach those of API (see below) but that the next move will be a run towards $60 as refining capacity increases. Another big crude inventory build reported by API sent oil falling further overnight and this morning crude is trading flat to up slightly but the dollar is pressuring prices this morning as it puts on a smally rally following the CPI data. 

  • OPEC Watch: Global oil demand trimmed in the Cartels April Report.
    • 2008: 85.6 mm bopd
    • 2009: 84.2 mm bopd vs 84.6 mm bopd in the March 2009 report 

Natural gas advanced $0.06 to close at $3.69 yesterday, shrugging off a weakened gas demand forecast from the EIA.  This morning gas is trading flat.

  • Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Consensus looking for a 16 Bcf injection.

Oil Inventory Preview:

API Watch:  Yet another big build in crude stocks

  • Crude:  UP 6.5 million barrels to 371.2 mm barrels
    • Refinery utilization fell to 79.9% from
  • Gasoline: DOWN 600,000 barrels to 218.4 mm barrels
  • Distillates: UP 100,000 barrels to 142.3 mm barrels

ZComment: Crude is likely to rally on any crude build short of 3 mm barrels.


  • Crude Inventories Normally Shrink This Week of the Year. Normally this week crude in storage begins to fall off as refiners are coming back on line, increasing throughput in the wake of Spring maintenance season.
  • Few expect a draw down of inventories to occur with this report as the U.S. refining industry is ending the maintenance season at a much lower than normal level of utilization and it is unclear when they as an industry will really start to ramp throughput.
  • This "Cartel-like" discipline goes a long ways towards explaining why crack spreads have been rebounding despite the bloated distillate and fullish gasoline product inventories. 
  • Imports: Need to see them back off on the Gulf Coast. Reports coming in that non-OPEC domestic demand has fallen in places like the FSU leading to expanded imports (no wonder they don't want to join the Cartel and just benefit from its actions).
  • Products normal decline substantially this week of the year. However production is not back to full swing but demand is advancing for all modes of transportion. This year, demand remands softish so the consensus estimates remain . Couple of points here (these last bullets are only slightly modiefied from last week but are worth repeating):
  • WTI is priced from Cushing, Oklahoma where stocks have been slipping lower for the last 7 weeks. This isn’t so much demand as it is supply crimped from the Bakken and from Canadian flows. A further fall in Cushing will be supportive crude prices even if we see a build in overall storage. 
  • Gasoline demand needs to inch on above 9.1 mm bpd for me to warm to VLO and other refiners. If demand does not pick up commensurate with a return in refining utilization gasoline stocks could become bloated meaning weak cracks through the season.
  • Distillates: Demand may be starting to lift but stocks are 30% high to the five year average. Note in the Analyst Watch I included some trucking names receiving upgraded targets to today. Diesel is probably going to be cheaper than gasoline at the peak of summer this year.

Stuff We Care About Today

IPAA New York Begins Next Week (April 20 to 22). I won't be heading to this one as it begins at the start of earnings season but several of the names that we follow will be making presentations. GDP announced this morning they will have their presentation on their website by Friday and I would expect several companies to take this opportunity to provide operational updates as its been quiet for some time now.  Here's the presentation schedule (our names are concentracted on Monday and Tuesday).

FSLR Lands Another Large Utility Order

  • 48 Mw plant in Nevada for Sempra, sited with the companies original 10 MW plant built for Sempra in 2008. Construction to start 09 and fininsh '10.
  • Will be the largest photovoltaic installation in North America (compare 48 MW to the typical 800 to 1,200 for a nuke or the typical 250 to 500 MW gas-fired plant).
  • Continued wins for utilities in this environment of tight financing (EIA reporting some wind projects have been canceled/delayed due to inability to obtain loans) higlights (FSLR)'s leading cost per MW solution.

Solar Multiple: (I included last month's table as well for comparison)

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (FTO) cut to Hold at Deutshce, (TK) cut to Neutral at JPM.

95 Responses to “Wednesday – Oil Inventory Preview and Other Stuff”

  1. 1
    elduque Says:

    BDI +42 1534 Nah, still not a trend.

    TED 95.53

  2. 2
    elduque Says:

    Z – nice synopsis


  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Bill – thanks for the links, especially the e. tx drilling report one.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    With regard to the WSJ article and Cheniere, my only comments are “don’t believe everything you read” and take a look at the EIA’s STEO. LNG imports seen rising from 352 Bcf last year to 480 Bcf this year. That’s 1 Bcfgpd going to 1.3 Bcfgpd or a 30% rise.

    By the way, imports from Canada are seen falling 11% in 2009 (and I have no trouble with that prediction) meaning supply will fall from 8.4 Bcfpgd to 7.5 Bcfgpd. Offsetting the rise in LNG by 3x. EIA may be off on their LNG estimate but they are unlikely to be that far off.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    The GMXR horizontal announced in that e. tx drilling report may be part of what’s troubling the stock (3.9 MMcfepd rate from the Bossier (Haynesville) shale).

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Somewhat surprising green crude day pre EIA. I say surprising because of the API numbers. Potential for a build but still a rally seems to be building as API has set the bar awfully high. Price action in the stocks is pretty tied to the markets weakness this morning but again, a little bit of resilience speaks to traders thinking we may be setting up for the same pattern as last week. Finger will be on the sell trigger on the remaining EOG calls as the numbers come out and, if bullish, on the CLR and WLL and perhaps SU buy buttons.

  7. 7
    bill Says:

    can you comment on the word “potentialed” as used in the east texas drilling report

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Likely a short test was done that calculates what they think the well can do. In Louisiana, you often see wells listed as “waiting on state potential”. The IP can give you a very loose measure of reserve size in the East Texas/ NWLA Haynesville play, its a headline grabber but is subject to a lot variability/manipulation. If they are much lower than people are used to seeing it can sag a small cap E&P like GMXR. There people had been looking for the kind of IPs that HK was putting up in the La but when they came in lower (east texas is lower pressure for one thing) people were disappointed.

  9. 9
    bill Says:

    what do you think of the huge encana numbers 50 +.. if true that should be a stock mover

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    That county is not in the Haynesville play area, have not yet looked into what that is but I’m not an active follower of ECA.

  11. 11
    bill Says:

    im not even sure if encana is traded..never heard of them

    EnCana Oil & Gas completed four new wells in John Amoruso Field. Charlene Well 1 hit 16,100 feet, 9.8 miles northeast of Franklin. It potentialed 57.101 million cubic feet of gas on 38/64-inch choke. Charlene Well 4 hit 16,100 feet, 9.6 miles northeast of Franklin and potentialed 39.089 million cubic feet of gas on 33/64-inch choke. S. McLean Well E5 hit 16,140 feet, 7.5 miles east of Franklin and potentialed 22.775 million cubic feet of gas on 24/64-inch choke

  12. 12
    bill Says:

    eca– found them canadian outfit

    you may recall, eco terrorists, tried bombing their gas pipeline twice. The eco guys also blew up a few hummers for good measure

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    ECA is a very large Canadian E&P. They are huge in the Haynesville, over 400,000 acres at last count but I never followed them for my day job as I was a U.S. E&P analyst (most of the big caps and many of the small mids). TLM I followed pretty actively but that’s as close as I came to covering Encana.

  14. 14
    jat Says:

    Z, do you think the API crude build makes sense in light of the imports drop / utilization drop reported? It’s APIA on bloomberg.

  15. 15
    jat Says:

    Imports 8433 vs. 9244 previous week; Utilization 80 vs 82.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Jat, I never saw API’s imports (I use Thomson which is the lame, red headed step child of Bloomberg for that kind of data). What was the import number, been trying to find all night?

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Thanks Jat, no, that again makes no sense. The refining throughput decline, if they are right about it would be 100 to 150,000 bopd, no where near offsetting a 800,000 bopd declien in imports. No wonder crude is up.

  18. 18
    tater Says:

    Are you thinking of rolling HAL puts to May? I took a baby position at $16, looking for some hand holding.

  19. 19
    sane Says:


    I saw no import or util numbers last night.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Bill, found that field, (John Amoruso), its a tight gas sand, expensive to drill, deep, big opening rate if successful, more exploration than what you think of in a shale. Tiny little GST does this too although their real estate is not as good.


  21. 21
    sane Says:

    Oops just saw jat’s post.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Thanks, Sane, I couldn’t find it either.

    Tater – not going to fight the tape, they announce on Monday, will listen to the call and decide, may take May puts but only if it runs on up today through Friday.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Tater – to add to that, clearly there are 0 expectations on the quarter. My sense was / is that fear of a lousy outlook on the call on Monday and further deterioration in all things service in terms of pricing in North America and to some extent globablly will act as a drag on the stock. Has not happened yet as the shares are trying to bottom with this market. They aren’t cheap on a forward multiple and they are getting more expensive by the day as estimates come down.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    And to add to the ECA, big firm, means any single well or group of wells has little leverage on the company and is more likely to be discounted by the market as its well known. For instance, they’ve been drilling these kind of rate wells since the early 2000s in that particular play.

  25. 25
    bill Says:

    20 thanks

    i had a small position in gst but dumped it as i was concerned about size and debt position

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Oil in 3 minutes, stocks looking nervous, crude up 60 cents.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Bill – re GST – yeah, good call.

  28. 28
    tater Says:

    Appreciate that. I’ve got a couple of simple plays on right now with HAL and HOG where I just don’t get the optimism combined with what I see as bad charts. I’ve got a bit of catching up to do, just wanted to make sure I wasn’t walking into something. I’m not a fan of the S&P chart either, so I am looking to trade from the short side for now.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Crude up 5.6 (in line with API)
    gasoline down 0.9
    distillate down 1.2

    imports flatting at 9.4 mm bopd
    inputs to refiners off to 14 mm bopd (80.4% utilization).

    Pretty bearish…

  30. 30
    bill Says:

    great areticle on 20

    quoting from it

    ” This is treacherous – and expensive – drilling, but the payoff can be humongous.

    Initial production rates of 20 MMcfg/d are pretty much the norm, with some of the wells coughing up more than 50 MMcfg/d.

    Sitting squarely in the latter category are the Bonnie Ann 1 and the South McLean B1 wells in the Amoruso Field. They represent two of the nation’s five largest wells since 2002, with initial gross production rates exceeding 50 MMcfg/d, according to Amoruso Field owner/operator EnCana.”

    wow- learn something new every day

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    EIA Part II

    Gasoline demand eased lower to 8.944 mm bpd, not the way it should be going seasonally.

    The fact that oil isn’t just tumbling is telling of sentiment….

  32. 32
    bill Says:


    what did cushing look like or is it too early

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    EIA Part III

    Distillate demand tumbled. As my friend in the trucking stock analysis business put it to me the other day when thinking about going long transports due to cheap diesel “run for the hills”, trucks are not rolling, goods are not being shipped, and little is being planted

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    EIA Part IV

    Cushing stocks fell to 29.2 vs 30 mm barrels last week. This is why oil is not simply falling to $45, that and API outed just about the same numbers last night.

    Nutshell: demand remains week, the refiners remain on vacation, and as such imports remain too high

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Crude broke below $49 and then retraced, still no sense of panic there, stocks modestly lower post numbers. Crude likely to start watching the equity markets now as the idea that crude stocks are high was there before the numbers and is still there after. The decline at Cushing is supportive of prices but we need to see demand seasonally pick up and so far we have no joy there.

    Continuing to hold April longs for the next little bounce, then out with a roll delayed into next week.

  36. 36
    benbobby Says:

    Zman,are they still adding crude to the SPR?

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Yes, added 1.3 mm barrels last week.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Not a lot of green on my screen (HK, VLO, TSO notably up) but most names off the lows. Crude down 20 cents has got to be making the oil bears nuts.

  39. 39
    benbobby Says:

    Zman, if that amount was not added to the SPR would it be reflected as a 1.3 additional gain in the crude inventory numbers?

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Yes. We’ve been adding 1 to 2 mm barrels per week to the SPR for quite some time now.

  41. 41
    bill Says:

    ECA has plans to split into 2 companies

    In May, EnCana announced a plan to split into two independent companies – one a pure-play North American unconventional natural gas company and the other a fully integrated oil company with in-situ oil properties and refineries. Preparations were undertaken in order to complete the transaction in early 2009. Uncertainty in the global financial markets caused EnCana to delay its plans until clear signs of stabilization return. In the meantime, EnCana is continuing to prepare documentation and maintain support systems in anticipation of the proposed transaction.

  42. 42
    choices Says:

    coal taking a whack-BTU off over 13%

  43. 43
    choices Says:

    Should have looked before #42-Q1 results out and evidently not good-have not read yet.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Thanks Choices, did not see they were set to report, guess they wanted to get the bad news out of the way. If BTU is missing production targets then ACI is likely to really brick as they’ve been having some mining difficulties with an important long wall mine.

    EIA reported in their STEO that electricity demand will be off sharply this year (3 to 4% probably) which is no shocker as meteorologists are expecting a cooler summer and we have a cooler economy. But they also pointed out that coal is being backed out of the generation puzzle due to cheap natural gas. They see natural gas consumption by gas-fired utilities up 1.6% in 2009 despite the aggregate reduction in generation.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Crude up 25 cents now. Cushing.

  46. 46
    choices Says:

    BTU-tripled earnings on 15% increase in earnings but did not provide full year guidance because of uncertainty and cut production in US and Austrialia-seems like an overreaction to me.

  47. 47
    choices Says:

    #46-#$%@%-I need more coffee-should read tripled earnings on 15% increase in revenues.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Choices – that one had run from low to high 20s in short order. Last quarter their guidance was cautiously upbeat. Could be a little bit of profit taking, say another day there. Stock is a little cheap at this price but estimates will be coming down tomorrow so I will not jump on the bargain bandwagon just yet.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Knew whatcha meant, lol. More coffee almost always a good choice, especially on pre earnings season lull days like this one.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    HK acting like something is up, stock back to toying with $22+

  51. 51
    bill Says:

    with low ng prices , i am suprised with the strength in hk, chk and others..

    year end ng was 5.71 now it is 3.50

  52. 52
    choices Says:

    Thanks, Z.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Bill – lots of hedges, costs to drill are falling dramatically. And the stocks are off 50 to 80% from their highs already.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Choices, have not given it a great deal of thought, for some reason expected them to report later, will update thoughts on coal for tomorrow post.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    OIH positive on day, feels like a squeeze.

  56. 56
    bill Says:

    z- what your view on oil at 50

    fairly priced, too high, too low??

  57. 57
    choices Says:

    Not to clog up this msg board but one more post on BTU with further comments/clarification.


  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Pretty unchanged from this morning’s post comment:

    “I think crude will like test $45 again (possibly today if the EIA numbers approach those of API (see below) but that the next move will be a run towards $60 as refining capacity increases”

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Choices – hard to clog it up with BOP on vacation and Sambone, Nicky and Dman mia, lol. More data on that name is better than less, thanks.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    POTUS speaking on taxes. By the president’s definition I am apparently not a worker. Hmmmm.

    Emailed in question:

    Z: In light of your comments today, would you be taking GMXR off the dance card in favor of HK or any others that have had better drilling success? S

    Answer: Not really, no. I’d like to see them pr the wells in early May (3 Haynesville wells) and see how they do. This one has large reserve potential compared to its booked reserves and its market valuation. When credit eases it will likely rally as it will when it announces its bank line redetermination (looking for an unchanged credit line there). So I’m holding the two names mentioned for pretty different reasons.

  61. 61
    tater Says:

    I wonder if GMAC will pass the stress test? Hmm…
    Good to see that somebody ok’d them to sell FDIC insured debt.
    Fed buying US treasuries.
    What a circus.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    NG up another 4 cents. E&P not yet convinced, oil holding up well considering the storage report.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    SD breaching $9 again. Pattern there is getting pretty obviously set up for a run on $10. Lacks catalysts and they are not attending IPAA next week, so thought is approaching redetermination and just a technical bounce.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Tater – on HAL – approaching top bolly band, any TA thoughts?

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    NBR back above $13. That chart looks very scoopish along with much of oil service/drillers at present. Its cheaper than most in the group as are most of the drilling names but I won’t go after puts there again as we got luck to get out ahead given the push these names are getting from some analysts. I think they deflate as earnings come out but will go after puts in the more expensive and obviously margin challenged names like HAL and BHI with May puts. Not yet though.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Feels like paint drying almost like pinning action. Don’t people know its not May yet and that filing extensions and not actually crossing all the i’s and dotting all the t’s is your right as an American.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    CRK – hearing that one well listed in the Haynesville in that Tyler paper link above at 3.1 MMcfepd is inaccurate according to the company. Broker suggesting CRK will now wait to do its operations update with the earnings report.

    Also reading that frac jobs in the Haynesville now down by 50% from December levels. That’s significant since a 10 stage frac might have cost you $2 mm then or 25% of the total well cost. That means more bang for the buck and that’s just that piece of the cost. On the flipside, that’s continued bad news for someone like BJS. Watching them for a short entry along with CRR (no one wants to pay for expensive, and potentially unneeded ceramic proppant when beach sand will do) as well as BHI for down activity and squeezed margins reasons.

  68. 68
    Dman Says:

    tater, could you take a look at OSX?

    Z – trying to set aside my irritation at the service names. I had some ATW, DO & RIG from much lower, but sold the ATW & DO when they rallied hard. Now just have the RIG & completely missed the NOV, OII etc. So I’m feeling the pressure to get in (like the analysts?) and I need some kind of Jedi mind trick to try to get rational about these names.

    There was a good post here (maybe a week ago, but I don’t recall who posted it) discussing the two sides. The bull case is to look through the bottom of the cycle. That case would seem easier to make for oil-directed service, harder for gassy service. But then OTOH maybe the gassy names have fallen harder (?).

    Even though a turnaround in gas drilling looks a long way off, analysts seem to want to get out in from of it. This is pretty unusual, is it not?

    Seems to me that one factor is they are looking to play the alleged economic rebound rather than looking specifically at the energy fundamentals. Another factor is that there may be a lot of managers who are seriously underinvested after the 2008 freak-out.

    One problem with the bear case is that NG could turn in the near future. If it did, can you imagine keeping a lid on the service stocks? As for crude, even if it corrects to $45, that’s still way off the lows. And again if it moves to $60, you wouldn’t want to get in the way of SLB, HAL etc.

    If the uptick in economic sentiment were to reverse, that might set them back somewhat. SPX here seems to be retreating from a 3-month downtrend after briefly getting thru it recently.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    I think it is fairly normal for analysts to want to justify their existence. The group of them are split on how they see the OIH names now with several bulls and several bears at both the large and small shops. And I understand the desire to look through the bottom.

    Problem is bottom has not yet arrived for numbers. HAL consensus estimates are off a dime on 2009 and 2010 in the last WEEK to $1.32 and $1.35 respectively. I mentioned Frac jobs down by half from December to March. Most of the decline has come since February.

    Regarding that bear case problem, I do think we turn higher in the second half on gas. That doesn’t translate into a rebound in rigs but is good for E&P as service costs will be lower by then so you can say “hello expanding 2H09 E&P margins).

    The E&Ps will be slow, very slow to ratchet up capex after what has just happened. I feel this service rally is a headfake.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Tried and failed to add back the first half of those EOG calls bought last week a little bit ago with the stock down $2, was thinking to play a hunch.

  71. 71
    Wyoming Says:

    For you Antelope Fans:


    Sweet looking water curtain, check out the crew ready to jump down the hill.



    You can blow up the image by clicking on it and then by the mag glass again.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Thanks Wyoming. More support for me not understanding the whole price of a gallon of milk vs the price of an Mcf of gas thing, lol.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: Sold the SD May $10 Calls flat and will reposition.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: Added the second half of my EOG $60 April call position back for $0.75 with the stock down $1.60 at $58.90. Obviously high risk with 2 days of life left in them.

  75. 75
    Dman Says:

    Z – the OSX is certainly messing with my head, so I can easily buy the headfake idea.

    On the E&P front: I wonder about the general assumption that credit *is* going to get back to “normal”. If it doesn’t, it would spell more trouble for debty E&P as well as service. Good for likes of EOG.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    75 – can’t argue with any of that. I have seen a number of analyst and company comments that drilling cost savings have not fallen as far and as fast as people thought they would … for the 1Q average. They saw prices fall more late in the quarter leading some to think that there are earnings upside surprises on the way from the service names. I saw, wow, really, with the amount that numbers have been cut those are some really unimpressive beats.

  77. 77
    Dman Says:

    Wyo – Great pix

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Just got sent a short piece from Johnson Rice on the Eagle Ford shale players. Funny how they did it a day after I did. Funny how one of their guys is signed up here. Could be a coincidence. But as a reminder to all, what happens at Zman’s Energy Brain stays at Zman’s Energy Brain. Its in the terms and conditions of the site. Also, my piece was superior.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    For anyone hanging out on this slow tax day, let me know if you DID NOT get both of the ZBLASTs from today. Thanks.

  80. 80
    tater Says:

    Out to accountants office. HAL looks to me like one of those very uncomfortable moments that make you wish you had your money bet on a baseball game. At least you get to enjoy watching the game. I don’t see the press into the BB idea on that one as much as a run up into the top of the down channel (on the daily view). Were you looking at a 15 min chart? The daily top BB is now slanting up so it actually is not thought to be resistance. I am going to use the March high as my trade failure number for that put idea.

    I didn’t read correctly. The FDIC has not yet ok’d GMAC’s application to sell its crap debt. I spoke too soon. (But you know I still think it’s a circus).

    $OSX daily chart

  81. 81
    ram Says:

    Got them both. Is the EOG blast based on the overall market possibly being up the next two days?

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    I was looking at the daily BB, its at 18.51, just looked closer than it is.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Ram – In part, but also down last couple more than group and the fact that it is a big cap favorite go to name for analysts now, so when down for no reason (unless you count mark to market account and a slight uptick in the ng hedge position as of last night) I’d guess its a morning call box tout.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    NG and Oil closed the day essentially flat, group off over a percent with market up not really making much sense either.

  85. 85
    ram Says:


  86. 86
    Garyinhou Says:

    Great pictures Wyoming.. Thanks

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Anyone recall Nicky’s SP500 levels?

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    Also, anyone see what goosed the market into the close, thinking its just the DJIA breaking through 8,000 but wondering if there was a late news item.

  89. 89
    ram Says:

    860 then 875. I’m not stalking you Nicky.

  90. 90
    Dman Says:

    #80 thanks tater

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Thanks ram.


  92. 92
    Dman Says:

    SPX closed just above the downtrend line from November.

  93. 93
    Jay Reynolds Says:


    I’m assuming that not all of us who are able make all of the ZTrades. Perhaps some of us have insights, TA, some overlooked scintilla of information or a “gut feeling”,

    I would like to ask if any of you think it would be beneficial to utilize the site to collaborate in evaluating the thesis of any given trade.

    I specifically do NOT mean something well after the fact like, “you’re getting killed in xyz” which would not be helpful.

    Rather I’m suggesting input ASAP, perhaps something like I should have posted after the thesis went up on GDPBH. I totally blew by neglecting to post what I was seeing/hearing locally re their HS wells just down the road from me. As it was, I took the “call” so double bad on me.

    Personally, having something of a hair trigger, even someone’s note such as, “I think the thesis is sound but the scenario may take a bit longer to develop because of XYZ” could prove invaluable.



  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Re 93 = Good idea. Will put in the post tomorrow.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Anyone has a good source of historical earnings estimates? Looking for last week, last month, three months ago, or some such time frames. I keep track of my groups in excel but only have them for what they were at that point in time. Thanks in advance.

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