Tuesday Morning And All Is Still Pretty Quiet; Quick Look At The Eagle Ford Players

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Analyst Double Speak Watch: Merrill out saying the U.S. gas rig to fall further but if you look at their official rig count estimates they are ABOVE the current level of rigs. They then go to say that service names may not fall much further as multiple expansion is typical of this phase of the cycle. I just have to say that I don't agree, that further pain is around the corner, especially if you buy their increased LNG import volumes to the U.S. angle.

Head In The Sand Watch: "If it doesn't make sense to drill for oil for economic reasons or environmental or climate reasons...it doesn't make sense to spend more money on seismic testing,"  ~Jacqueline Savitz, a senior director with Oceana, a marine conservation group which is not only against offshore drilling but even knowing what's out there. Strangely, I find myself in league with Ken Salazar at Interior who says we need better information about resource potential as we are currently using a combination of 25 year old seismic surveys and "blind guesses" . Ken is proposing a seismic survey of one, yes one, of 26 subdivisions in Federal waters but is seeking support for the survey with environmental groups who were big supporters during the election.  

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Eagle Ford Shale plays; SD
  4. Crack Spread Update
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: The Holdings Wiki Tab Is updated.

  • HK - Added (15) more (HK) April $22.50 Calls for $0.25. Continuing to hold May $25s here as well and am looking for an upbeat operations update in the near future. Management has hinted they would do one prior to the earnings call and time is running a bit short there. Risky for these April strikes as they may or may not do it this week and expiration is Saturday. The safer though less leveraged play is the Mays.

Commodity Watch

Crude oil fell $2.19 to close at $50.05 yesterday after the IEA cut demand and the equity markets sold off early. This morning crude is trading up about 50 cents following the weak retail sales data despite an expected build of 2.2 mm barrels in crude inventories tomorrow.

  • China Watch: Second highest month in history for crude imports to China. Imports rose to 3.86 mm bopd and up 33% from February levels but down 5.5% from the record set in March 2008.

  • Saudi Watch: Saudi plans to trim May deliveries to customers, despite being within quota at present.

Natural gas inched up 2 cents to $3.63 ignoring the dip in crude in favor of a cooler than anticipated forecast. This morning gas is trading up another 3 cents with oil.

  • Imports Watch:
    • LNG was flat with the prior and year ago levels at 1.1 Bcfgpd.
    • Canada was 6.7 Bcfgpd last week, down 1.4 Bcfgpd from last year. Exxon said that production volumes of between 0.4 and 0.5 Bcfgpd from Sable Island which suffered a fire at a compressor station on April 7 were back on line as of April 12th.
  • Electricity Generation Watch: The Edison Electric Institute showed generation inched up lat week from the prior week but without cooling load, was off 6.2% from year ago levels. Year to date generation is running 3.2% low to last year.
  • EIA STEO Watch: EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook showed a further deterioration in expectations for industrial natural gas demand with their forecast showing a 7.4% dip this year vs their prior estimate of a 6% decline.

Stuff We Care About Today

Eagle Ford Shale Play Thoughts

  • Where: Maverick Basin, McMullen, LaSalle, Webb, and Dimitt Counties, south Texas (active areas for natural gas now in the basin, likely to migrate northeast given time and better gas prices).
  • What:
    • Depth: up to 10 to 11,000+ feet deep
    • Thickness: 100 to 300 feet
    • Gas In Place per Section (gross): 80 to 110 Bcf. With 20% recovery factor that's 16-22 Bcf per section (640 acres).
  • Who's Who Here:
    • APC/SM/ TXCO joint venture (Anadarko 50%, Saint Mary 25%, TXCO Resources 25%:

      • Tested 4 horizontal wells in and out of JV with APC (IPs of 0.7, 3.6, 4.4, and 6.0 MMcfepd - the fracs started small, progressed to 5 stage and were 10 stage on the largest well).
      • TXCO Reousources (TXCO):
        • 442,000 net acres
        • JV net exposure about 1.5 Tcfe
        • Total play exposure 7 to 10 Tcfe (their estimate)
        • 12/31/08 Reserves: 81.7 Bcfe.
      • ST Maryland (SM):
        • 210,000 net acre potential
        • Plan to drill their first operated well in 2Q09
    • Encana (ECA) - acreage unknown, hard to imagine you get leverage on the name via this play given their size
    • Conoco (COP) - 300,000 net acres, ditto previous comment.
    • Petrohawk (HK):
      • 156,000 net acres
      • 2 wells with initial production of 8.3 and 9.1 MMcfepd in LaSalle county.
      • Should have well results on two wells in days/weeks (rumor is they are very encouraged by the results of the 3rd well which has been fraced),
      • Likely to move to a 3 rig program this year
      • Exposure of 3.7 Tcfe (their estimate)
      • Total company reserves at year end 1.42 Tcfe
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD):
      • 310,000 acres, east of HK's wells,
      • Will test their first well in the play (DeWitt county) this month; well was drilled in 4Q but they are in go slow mode due to gas prices at present
    • Rosetta Resources (ROSE):
      • 21,000 acres,
      • a little further to the south of the Petrohawk wells in Webb county.
      • They've drilled a well but not yet released results.
      • They put reserve potential at 300 Bcfe which is about twice as conservative a read as HK puts on their acreage.
    • Swift Energy (SFY):
      • 45,000 net acres,
      • 1 well tested at 10.4 MMcfepd on the eastern extent of the play.
    • The Meridian Resource (TMR):
      • possibly as much as 30,000 acres in the area,
      • no cash to test the play for now.

I've provided the follow table for reference, the assumptions are an amalgamation of estimates from the more experienced players (and that's a funny way to put it given the lack of piles of data here just yet). The risking is more conservative that the companies would have you buy off on but I'm ok with that and given where gas prices are no one is in a real hurry to buy tons of acreage here or drill this one up quickly so better to let them grow slowly into the reserve targets.

Also, this clearly has company maker potential in it for the smaller names but I'd point out that some of those balance sheets (TXCO in particular) are less than ideal. I include TXCO because it has the most acreage in the play, giving it great leverage on it for its size but I'm not sure at all whether they survive the cycle given their high leverage, broken borrowing covenants, need to raise additional capital, etc.




SD Shelf Registration:

  • Looks like an extension of a previous shelf registration.
  • Shares being registered are for potential selling shareholders and not the company
  • If the offering occurs, CEO Tom Ward would be selling about 16 mm shares leaving him with 12 mm shares.

Crack Spread Update: Doing better than expected.

Diesel Crack Spreads: Vastly Improved. Over the last four weeks, diesel crack spreads have more than doubled. Granted 4 weeks ago was the low for the season but this bounce is unexpected and is a bit of a head scratcher with distillate stocks up over 30% from year ago levels in the face of anemic transportation and agricultural consumption. I continue to inch my way towards owning a little (VLO).


Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: B of A upgrades (NE) and (SII) to Buy and (ESV) and (PTEN) to Neutral. S&P Equity Research cuts (SLB) to Hold.

Quotes of the Day Watch: Both from Jim Hackett, CEO of APC:

  • referring to the outcome of current "environment at any cost policies" he said it would make the U.S. "the world's cleanest third world country,"
  • "The histrionic and maniacal focus on carbon dioxide is intellectually repugnant to me," 

106 Responses to “Tuesday Morning And All Is Still Pretty Quiet; Quick Look At The Eagle Ford Players”

  1. 1
    Sambone Says:

    By David Bird
    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. oil demand in the current, second-quarter 2009 will
    drop by 4% from a year earlier as the economic recession saps oil demand,
    government forecasters said Tuesday.
    The Energy Information Administration said the year-to-year drop of 780,000
    barrels a day to 18.9 million barrels a day will be the low point for the year.
    Second-half 2009 oil demand will be flat to modestly down from a year earlier,
    leaving a full-year drop of 2.2%, or 430,000 barrels a day, to 18.99 million
    barrels a day, the lowest level since 1998.
    The 2009 drop follows a 6.1% decline in 2008 and marks the fourth straight
    year of a drop in annual oil demand. That’s the longest streak since a
    five-year drop in the late 1970s-early 1980s after the Iranian Revolution.
    For 2010, the EIA sees demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer rising 1.4%,
    or 270,000 barrels a day, to 19.26 million barrels a day, on economic growth,
    albeit dimished from month-earlier expectations.
    The EIA sees U.S. real gross domestic product dropping 3.8% this year,
    compared with a 2.8% decline in the month-earlier forecast. The growth figure
    for 2008 was trimmed to 1.1% from 1.3%, and 2010 GDP is expected to rise by
    1.2%, down from a forecast of 1.9% growth in the March forecast.
    Demand for gasoline, the most widely used petroleum product, is expected to be
    up a fractional 0.6% this year, compared with a 0.3% decline projected last
    Reflecting the weak economy and lower demand for diesel fuel, distillate
    demand is expected to fall 4.3% in 2009 before mounting a modest 0.1% rise in
    U.S. domestic oil output is expected to rise by 440,000 barrels a day to 5.4
    million barrels a day, following a 110,000 barrels a day drop in 2008. The
    first rise since 1991 comes from stepped up output from new platforms in the
    Gulf of Mexico.
    Total U.S. company-held oil inventories are expected to continue to climb in
    the second-quarter from a first-quarter level that was the highest for the
    period since 1990. The EIA projects stocks of crude oil and petroleum product
    will stand at 1.072 billion barrels at the end of June, 9.4% above a year ago
    and the highest level for the period since 1998.
    Crude oil stockpiles, now at 16-year highs, are expected to be 19% above a
    year earlier at the end of June at 350.6 million barrels. Stocks were 15.2%
    above a year-earlier at the end of March, at 360.6 million barrels a day – a
    level that would be the most for the month since 1990. At year-end, though, the
    EIA sees stocks at 322.8 million barrels a day, down 0.4% from a year earlier.
    – By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires
    Dow Jones Newswires
    04-14-09 0830ET

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    By Nick Heath

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures pushed higher in European trade Tuesday
    as market participants took their cue from steep climbs on regional equity
    Although the International Energy Agency’s latest 1 million barrel-a-day
    downwards revision to global oil demand still news to many returning after the
    Easter holiday weekend, it was bullish sentiment spilling over from equity
    market advances that took the upper hand Tuesday.
    At 1154 GMT, the front-month May Brent contract on London’s ICE futures
    exchange was up 94 cents at $53.08 a barrel.
    The front-month May light, sweet, crude contract on the New York Mercantile
    Exchange was trading 54 cents higher at $50.59 a barrel.
    The ICE’s gasoil contract for May delivery was up $21.25 at $466.50 a metric
    ton, while Nymex gasoline for May delivery was up 158 points at 147.90 cents a
    Tuesday’s moves leave crude prices firmly back in their recent trading ranges
    between the mid-$40 and mid-$50 barrel area. Participants said further
    volatility within those ranges can be expected, but a break outside might
    require specific developments in oil-market fundamentals.
    Output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are broadly
    seen to be supporting crude prices, while weaker demand linked to a slowdown in
    the global economy is proving an obstacle to moves higher.
    “I think (today) it’s a reaction to positive news on stocks but we probably
    still have to be a bit cautious. I don’t see enough news in there to take us
    out of the range,” said Ole Hansen, manager of futures and fixed income trading
    at Saxo bank in Copenhagen. “Banking stocks are doing tremendously well….but
    when we come to the real economy, it’s going to be a bit trickier.”
    Crude prices Monday fell sharply in response to the IEA’s Friday forecast that
    global oil demand in 2009 is set sink by 2.4 million barrels a day or 2.8% on
    the year.
    Further pressure could come from an update on U.S. oil stocks and demand due
    later Tuesday and again Wednesday. Weekly inventory numbers are due from the
    American Petroleum Institute at 2030 GMT Tuesday and from the U.S. Energy
    Information Administration Wednesday. Meanwhile the EIA is set to release its
    short-term energy outlook Tuesday, with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
    Countries publishing its monthly report Wednesday.
    An initial Dow Jones Newswires survey of six analysts shows them all
    predicting a rise last week in U.S. crude stocks as calculated by the EIA, with
    estimates ranging from increases of 1.3 million to 2.7 million barrels. U.S.
    commercial crude stockpiles are already at their highest since 1993, and will
    have hit their highest point since 1990 should the analysts’ average forecast
    of a 2.1-million-barrel rise prove accurate.
    -By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires
    Dow Jones Newswires
    04-14-09 0818ET

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Opco cuts ratings on the U.S. majors.

  4. 4
    elduque Says:

    BDI +14 1492–2 days up does not a trend make.

    TED 95.45

  5. 5
    bill Says:

    re >The histrionic and maniacal focus on carbon dioxide is intellectually repugnant to me,”

    hackett is right on, imho

    from tudor today

    North American Carbon Sink. According to Huber and Mills (“The Bottomless Well”, 2005), North American forests, grasslands and farms absorb more CO2 than we emit from the burning of fossil fuels. Don’t need sophisticated computer models to estimate. Wind blows west to east (except in Washington D.C.) so we can measure the CO2 concentrations in the northern Pacific and compare to the CO2 concentrations in the northern Atlantic and see these results. So remind me again why we need carbon tax or cap and trade

  6. 6
    bill Says:

    is rockies overlooked? again from tph

    Non-integrated independents have overlooked Rockies gas due to differential blow-outs and single well economics (Heaven forbid near term EPS suffer). I had a professor who used to say, “strategy is spending capital today to reap rewards in the future” – so consider this: in 2011, Rockies take-away capacity will be 10+ BCFD, current production is ~8 BCFD, you need 15-20 rigs running per BCFD to maintain production (~120-160 rigs total at today’s rates to stay flat), Rockies are currently at ~60-70 rigs turning right, first year declines are roughly 60%+, 2nd year is ~40%, and (I would guess on this statistic) that the production weighted average age of wells in the Rockies is less than 2 years old. What does all this add up to: Rockies premium to HHub at some point in 2011 (especially b/c HHub gas could be constrained by Haynesville onslaught heading Northeast

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Interesting to see opening strength again at SD. Most everything else red but not as bad as retail sales influenced market.

    POTUS speaks in a bit.

    Re Rockies: Its a thought for down the road to be certain. Get enough pipeline capacity on line and sooner or later you crush that difference to Hub as long as you don’t keep Wyoming gas growing like it has been. When that starts to happen, names like NFX will benefit and names like BBG will shine.

  8. 8
    choices Says:

    Chinese may make another move-the Chinese demand can only continue to grow and they are definitely not constrained by environmental or political concerns.


  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Roger that Choices, they’re signing contracts at a feverish pace.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Group strengthening nicely into Obama’s speech in a little over an hour.

    Natural gas is shrugging off the EIA’s STEO thoughts on natural gas as those were, like IEA yesterday, widely anticipated.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    HK knocking on $22 again which has definitely become resistance. If it can make it through look for Tater’s 22.65 level.

    You can always check Tater’s TA thoughts at the link at upper right or here:


  12. 12
    elduque Says:

    CHK ?????

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    SD – still going strong, up 7% and above $9 showing a clear technical breakout. Volume is not yet impressive and has not been but I’m not the TA guru around here. May calls moving up now, Aprils will wake up with another 40 to 50 cent move which is a stretch. Tater, if you get a chance to look at this one please do.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    El – Re 12 – do you have a question?

  15. 15
    elduque Says:

    Any news to warrant the price action?

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Re CHK – its moving in line with the DVN and XTO today, don’t think its really out of line with the recent moves, maybe a little better. Financially leveraged names seem to be moving up faster now which makes sense as BOP has pointed out a recent but significant improvement in credit (at least it’s stopped falling to borrow a quote of BOP’s).

    Service is running hot, just don’t get that, don’t see a reason to fight the tape now.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    SD – maybe it won’t be a stretch, SD up 8+% now at 9.20. April $10s can be had for 5 to 10 cents, very long shot but possible. Feels like someone has a thought out there on the redetermination or an asset sale.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    HK broke on through the $22 resistance. Apologies for the TA comments today from my somewhat simplistic TA call but its expiry week and we have a dearth of what you might call “news”. HK looks to have 40 cents of near term upside in it and I have a batch of $22.50s that are up and going to be punted on any real weakness. Same goes for the remaining EOG $60 calls.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Got word from BOP from the company that the SD registration of Tom Wards shares was indeed a known event from the analyst meeting. The universal shelf was new but there is nothing out of the ordinary about keeping a current one on record and in my experience does not mean a deal is imminent.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    One area that won’t be seeing job losses: snipers.

    Pirates take 4 more ships:


  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Market holding breath for Obama speech on the economy in 30 minutes.

  22. 22
    Jay Reynolds Says:

    This argument is commonly stated:

    “According to Huber and Mills (“The Bottomless Well”, 2005), North American forests, grasslands and farms absorb more CO2 than we emit from the burning of fossil fuels. Don’t need sophisticated computer models to estimate.”

    What is missing is the observation that carbon is locked up on living plants only for their lifetimes. It’s a cycling carbon sink, re-releasing carbon into the enviornments/atmosphere as they decompose.

  23. 23
    bill Says:


    any way you look at it, cap and trade is just another way for politicians to tax and spend and shake down stakeholders for campaign contributions.

    We make our industries less competetive to China and we lose more jobs and then blame the bankers or wall street or anyone but the real cause..washington out of control

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    B of A also upped NBR to Buy today. The defense of the drillers and service co’s continues even as estimates fall and are expected to fall further.

    ROSE has an interesting break down of what has and has not fallen yet in terms of service in their latest presentation. Fairly detailed, lot of big ticket things you need when drilling and completing a well off 25 to 40%, other items have not fallen as much.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    The SOx and Nox cap and trade programs were successful in fighting acid rain and reducing emissions without being exorbitantly costly on the utility industry. I’d have to see how they structure a carbon dioxide program but my sense is that it will be more radical and much more costly and at the end of the day, ineffective without global support.

  26. 26
    Nicky Says:

    Good morning all.

    No change as far as ta for the indices:

    Chopping higher – 860SPX has continued to offer resistance but I think we go through that. The area then to watch for is 875, 878, 880. I think the market tops within the next couple of days and we then retrace a percentage of the rally to date. 750, 775 on SPX maybe.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Morning Nicky, thanks much for the read, market feeling like it wants to take one last leg up before a rest to me as well.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    POTUS still talking, market still waffling.

    Crude holding up 30 cents (just over $50)

    NG up a nickel.

    I’m stepping out for 30 minutes.

  29. 29
    Nicky Says:

    SPX has support at 843 and then 836

  30. 30
    Dman Says:

    #25 The good old days when environmental problems were local & could actually be solved.

    Now they are global & there is no sign of any solution other than the way nature normally corrects these problems: dramatic population declines.

    #5 If that quote from Tudor is an example of their idea of scientific reasoning, they’d be better off sticking to their day jobs.

    On the quote from Jim Hackett: alas the word “repugnant” doesn’t constitute any kind of scientific argument and can only be useful to describe the consequences of an argument already made. So what is that argument? I’d like to know what his thinking is. If the oil & gas industry could actually get its science straight it could offer some serious advice on what might be possible. As it is they can’t separate their short-term interests from a long term vision, so nobody will trust them.

    (Just as nobody trusts them on all their peak-oil comments: only the retired dudes tell the truth).

    Since I’m invested in them, I try to be sympathetic but it seems to me they need to either butt out of science or start taking it seriously.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Jim’s a good guy, normally very even keel. I think he’s looking at the moves by Interior and is just exasperated.

    Market no like Obama’s speech it seems, losses on the day doubled since he started.

  32. 32
    Dman Says:

    Random thought: NG is the only commodity I can find that isn’t already 20% higher than its low. Most are much higher than that.

    OK, I admit that’s because it kept going down all this time. But still, if you’re looking for a bargain … ???

  33. 33
    cargocult Says:

    Help me out here. Do I need to worry about Global Warming?

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to get in front of the popular trend and make money.


  35. 35
    Dman Says:

    Z – #31 Yes, everyone says Jim is smart & a good guy, so that’s why I’m interested in what his thinking actually is. I can understand the exasperation. I’m exasperated with Obama & I don’t have to deal with him!

    Market no likey GS payday? Or how about:

    -Sell on the “good” news
    -Overdue for correction
    -Tired & can’t figure out how it got here anyway?

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    GS getting kicked in the head, rest of market lower but no sense of panic, seems we don’t get crushed back today.

  37. 37
    Dman Says:

    cargo: an enormous chunk of ice recently broke off Antarctica. The glaciologists are freaking out because it is happening much faster than the “consensus” models presented to governments. The simple reason for that is that “consensus” has nothing to do with “best”. Scientists making the most realistic forecasts have been viewed by politicians and bureaucrats as alarmist. No politician wants to be a bearer of bad news, particularly when they have no antidote to the bad news.

    The news item on the Antarctic assured us that the gigantic ice chunk wouldn’t affect sea levels because it would remain frozen! Got that? It’s broken off because of melting ice and it’s floating around in sea water, but don’t worry it will remain frozen!

  38. 38
    Dman Says:

    SPWRA doing OK today

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Dman – saw that minor ups for the solars. Could be lingering effect of an AMAT story a day or so ago.

  40. 40
    Dman Says:

    Z – # 34 interesting. I always wonder just how long the stuff will stay down there. That’s the sort of question I’d like to see answers to & which the industry could help with.

  41. 41
    Dman Says:

    #1 – Crude not exactly trembling at the sight of EIA demand cuts, but seems to be in a corrective phase. Looks like it could work to $45.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Wrapping up last of 2008 tax junk, here if anyone has a question, comment. Don’t forget to ask your tax adviser if you can deduct ZEB as a stock research expense.

  43. 43
    Dman Says:

    Z – #19 Even if it was known already, isn’t it troubling for Ward to want to sell most of his holding?

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    As I now understand it, those shares were registered after already being sold in late 2008. He also registered shares that were part of a piggy back option to sell more shares if certain sellers sold their shares. So it gives him the option to sell some more shares that were previously unregistered. Can’t say it makes me all that happy but he’s still quite tied to the company as it stands now. Also have to go back to the old stand by line of people sell shares for lots of reasons, they only buy for one. So it does not look like for now that he is further reducing his ownership, but has taken the option to be able to do so.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    I think the late 2008 sale was all due to margin calls.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    North Korea expels IAEA inspectors, to restart reactor. Ceases all cooperation with monitoring efforts. Just the sort of headlines you hate to see.

  47. 47
    Dman Says:

    #44 – A particularly large swimming pool he needs built?

    #46 – Frankly, any headline with “North Korea” in it creeps me out. Goose-stepping guys in Mao jackets. And the news is never good. It’s just a question of how bad it’s going to be.

    Meanwhile in South Korea, everyone is playing networked computer games on the worlds fastest broadband net. Strange world.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Got confirm that 44 was largely if not entirely due to margin calls.

    North Korea news used to goose the oil market as it brought the other axis of evil allies into heated words with the states. Not so much anymore.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Paint drying on this market.

  50. 50
    Dman Says:

    #48 thanks Z

    Anyone know a good zinc play?

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Analysts pumping service sector up 2%. Message is results for 1Q don’t matter. Results for out quarters will continue to fall … which doesn’t matter either. Stocks will bottom and rebound on multiple expansion even as 2010 estimates drop below swiftly falling 2009 estimates. Hmmm.

  52. 52
    Garyinhou Says:

    If NK gets the bomb… it will be 911 times 2356

  53. 53
    bill Says:


    re 33

    Short answer no.

    Im more concerned about Global Cooling.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Market now looking to C and JPM before getting the go ahead to guy higher.

  55. 55
    Dman Says:

    #52 They already tested one – it was considered a fizzle (500 tons of TNT equivalent=incomplete detonation) but it still amounts to a tactical-sized nuke.

  56. 56
    bill Says:

    on 37 oh my a piece of ice broke off, lol

    the ice in my driveway melted too. thats what happens in the spring.

    I predict more warmer weather in the summer and more melting ice.

    Then in winter i predict more ice will form restoring said ice.

    By the way, did you know the whole globe was covered by ice. its been warming for quite some time now.

    What kind of weather existed when dinosaurs roamed around?

    for the sake of everyone- i will now avoid this topic forever

    god save the polar bears and baby seals

  57. 57
    mnt Says:

    Just wanted to say thanks to Bob & md for the comments re HNU. Still reviewing what to do on that one.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Thanks to RMD for sending a piece from Raymond James service guy who agrees with me on 1Q thought. In a nutshell he’s saying:

    1) numbers going to be ugly, worse than expected.
    2) big caps to set negative tone for year with HAL starting off
    3) results will lead to more downward revisions for 2009 and 2010 numbers.

  59. 59
    Sambone Says:

    #36, Mystified!!!!!!

    By Christine Harper

    April 14 (Bloomberg) — David Viniar, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief financial officer, said he’s “mystified” by the interest investors and government officials have shown in the bank’s trading relationship with American International Group Inc.

    “They’re one of thousands and thousands and thousands of counterparties and the results of any trading with AIG are completely immaterial to what we do,” Viniar said today in an interview. “I am mystified by this fascination with AIG.”

    Goldman Sachs, the most-profitable securities firm before converting to a bank last year, received more cash from AIG after the Federal Reserve rescued it last year than any other counterparty. The company has said it was insured against any losses from AIG and it didn’t benefit from the government’s rescue of the New York-based insurer. The Treasury Department’s chief watchdog for the financial rescue program is investigating whether AIG paid more than necessary to banks.

    Viniar told analysts today that any profits related to AIG in the January-to-March quarter “rounded to zero,” as most of the transactions were unwound before the end of the year. In an interview, he also said profits in December weren’t significant.

    ‘Rounded to Zero’

    “I would never tell you that we didn’t book any profit, I don’t even know,” he said. “I couldn’t tell you with any counterparty that we booked zero, but I could tell you it rounded to zero.”

    After AIG was rescued by the U.S. from collapse last year, banks that bought credit-default swaps got $22.4 billion in collateral and $27.1 billion in payments to retire contracts, the insurer said last month.

    Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, began an audit two weeks ago into whether there were attempts by AIG or the government to reduce the payments, according to an April 3 letter to Representative Elijah Cummings. The Maryland Democrat requested the probe last month along with 26 other members of Congress.

    Lawmakers, frustrated with the cost of an AIG bailout that has expanded three times, have asked why about $50 billion was paid after the initial September rescue to banks that bought credit-default swaps from the firm. The audit will reveal who made “critical decisions” regarding the payments and provide an explanation for the actions, Barofsky said.


    Viniar held a conference call on March 20 to answer questions about the firm’s trading relationship with AIG and to “clarify certain misperceptions.”

    When AIG was rescued, Goldman Sachs had $10 billion of exposure to the insurance company that was offset with $7.5 billion of collateral as well as credit-default swaps that would have paid off in the event of an AIG bankruptcy, Viniar said on the March 20 call.

    He also said on the call that Goldman Sachs recorded a gain “over time” on the value of the hedges it bought to guard against a default on AIG, even though the government enabled the insurer to honor its obligations. In today’s interview, he said those gains were booked “from 2006 to now” and that any gains booked in the first quarter “would have been very, very small.”

    Goldman Sachs reported late yesterday that it earned $1.81 billion, or $3.39 per share, in the first quarter on record revenue from trading fixed-income, currencies and commodities. The firm also raised $5 billion by selling stock at $123 per share, a 5.5 percent discount from yesterday’s closing price.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net.

    Last Updated: April 14, 2009 14:17 EDT

  60. 60
    bill Says:

    bexp is up today

    By OGJ editors
    HOUSTON, Apr. 14 — Northern Oil & Gas Inc., Wayzata, Minn., participated in the drilling and completion of a third Ordovician Red River discovery in Sheridan County, Mont., and 15 completions in the North Dakota Bakken-Three Forks Trend.

    The Brigham Exploration Co. 31-1 Friedrich Trust, a vertical well in Sheridan County, came on at 200 b/d from Red River. Northern’s interest is 23.5%.

    The Bakken-Three Forks wells averaged IPs of 692 b/d of oil, and Northern holds working interests of .5 to 41.5%. The wells are operated by Brigham, Continental Resources Inc., Fidelity Exploration & Production CO., Marathon Oil Corp., Newfield Exploration Co., St. Mary Land & Exploration Co., Slawson Exploration Co., and XTO Energy Inc.

    Northern is participating with .5 to 27% interest in 18 more Bakken-Three Forks wells operated by others, including EOG Resources Inc., Hess Corp., Marathon, Murex Petroleum, Slawson, Whiting, and Windsor Energy Corp

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    re 60 – yep. They are going to need some asset sales to ensure they make it through the cycle though.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Too bad BOP is out, could use an end of day rally monkey call.

  63. 63
    md Says:

    bloomberg consensus is 20 BCF injection.
    Seems high to me on higher HDD. Would have thought 0.Any thoughts

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    I showed Bloom at 16 Bcf injection as of this morning. Mix of where the degree days are is different from two weeks ago when we had a similar HDD count and got an unchanged reading on storage. Have not looked at closely yet I was thinking 5 to 10 Bcf injection (Less cold in the northeast but more in the south where industrial demand has been pretty depressed) but really this is just noise at the bottom of the trough. Prices are much more pressured by perceived LNG jump. If we got an unchanged reading we’d probably briefly rally to $4.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Utilization seen rising 0.3% last week for tomorrow’s report. That looks a little light.

    Imports are also seen as up from last week’s small dip. Hard to say in anyone week but the rally in imports seems unsustainable given that it has come from overseas and that has been falling. Also, decent odds that foul weather in Mexico ports last week could have resulted in less crude coming into the Gulf Coast.

  66. 66
    Dman Says:

    Bill #56

    “oh my a piece of ice broke off …
    the ice in my driveway melted too. thats what happens in the spring.”

    Great science there Bill. Nobel prize on the way.

    Just one tiny flaw in an otherwise brilliant tour de force.

    News flash: it isn’t spring in Antarctica, that being the Southern Hemisphere and all.

  67. 67
    ram Says:

    Rally monkey all over HAL.

  68. 68
    bill Says:

    on hk

    saw this on another board– dont know if this is out yet

    Reading yesterday’s Shreveport Times, I saw that Petrohawk(thru their subsidary, KCS) brought in another 25 million a day initial flow rate well in the Haynesville.

    The East Texas Drilling Report in the Tyler Morning Telegraph listed the testing of four wells brought in by Encana in Robertson County(an area not mentioned as being a shale formation). Well number 1.–57.1 million, 2.– 39.089 million, 3.—22.775 million, 4.–6.168 million. All four of these wells were around 16 million feet deep, and I assume were horizontal, multi-frac wells.

    Just these five wells(and there were others which were pretty strong in these two reports as well) add up to 150 million in initial flow rates. With the average conventional well coming in somewhere around 1.5 million a day, these five wells are equivalent to close to one-hundred conventional wells

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Ram – yep, does not make a lot of sense to me but most of service is green with the argument that the stocks have already taken into account worse than expected 1Q09 results, dire 2009 outlooks and a continuation of pricing pressure, reduced margins, etc.

  70. 70
    bill Says:


    you and al gore can get in a dither but i will not respond

    I am a denier, lol

    may the ice be with you..peace

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Re 68. Thanks, had not seen. On the HK that’s been rumored for a couple of weeks. The Robertson stuff is not Haynesville. Those rates for the first two look quite high, like a decimal is slipped. Do you have a link to that.

  72. 72
    Dman Says:

    NOV doubled off its lows.

    Bill, when confronted by basic facts, you resort to personal nonsense. Not impressive and cuts no ice (tee hee) with scientists.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Dman – re NOV doubling off the lows, that was party of RJ’s point, that the recent rally and the continued deterioration in conditions for service would seem to be coming to a head. While E&Ps will largely benefit from the hit service takes, I see little in the way of positives for service.

  74. 74
    Dman Says:

    Z – whilst I’m very peeved at missing out on the run in NOV, I have to be suspicious that suddenly all the analysts are getting positive on service. Since when have they all gotten on board at a turning point?

    Could it be that they are just feeling the pressure to justify runs in the likes of DO, RIG, NOV etc?

  75. 75
    RMD Says:

    Taken from Seeking Alpha:
    1. The US Natural Gas Fund (UNG). For investors who desire to track the performance of natural gas in percentage terms, UNG is appropriate. For example, when the natural gas April 2009 futures contract recorded a 13.74% increase at 5:14 p.m. on March 19, the UNG ETF followed suit, closing up 13.33% for the day.
    The ETF is roughly about .40 cents above its 52-week low of 14.10. The ratio of puts to calls coupled with an accelerating volume suggest that the May 15 strike calls might depreciate rapidly. This gesture is great for option writers. To that end, one can buy the underlying shares and write the May 15 Strike calls at approximately .90/contract.
    2. The First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas ETF (FCG) is suited for investors who wish to invest in an ETF tied closely to natural gas stocks. The largest holdings in FCG include Quicksilver Resources (KWK), Linn Energy (LINE) and Petrohawk Energy (HK).
    FCG’s May strike price 10 or 11 offers the same intrinsic time value, depending on how conservative an investor wishes to be. For those who want the possibility of pocketing the intrinsic value in hope of having the underlying shares getting called away by options expiration, the May 10 strike is a better alternative. Conversely, if you desire to establish a holding position with a greater chance of holding the underlying shares past options expiration, the May 11 strike is better.

  76. 76
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Sorry I missed the conversation today. Just checking in…

    Global climate change is a fact. Just ask the dinosaurs. Or, the fact that the earth was once covered by a giant, shallow, warm gentle sea (which made for very happy trilobites and crinoids). The earth’s climate is ALWAYS changing. What is unusual, is that we have had fairly stable climate for the last 130 yrs. That is a very long stretch of stability in the history of the earth. Imagine… all this global weather changes before man rode around in SUVs…

    I don’t question climate change. I do question the influence of man. Are we 100% responsible? Harldy. 5%? Maybe. But, no conclusive evidence.

    I am a scientist. At one point I was a full-time research geophysicist who worked with climatologists. Science is not a “consensus sport.” The phrase “most scientists agree that…” does not hold any real meaning for any real scientists.

    Man-made climate change? I’m with Jim Hackett on that one. Man-made influences? Sure. But “how much” and “what (if anything) to do” is still very much up in the air. So to speak.

    Just weighing in on the topic. Not meaning to step on any toes.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Dman – re 74. I think to some extent that’s the case. I think they also think there is a good chance to be on board in some names for an “earnings beat”. Having cut estimates far and fast, some names will “beat”. That’s a non-starter in my book but I am seeing more analysts talk about pricing that didn’t fall as far as people had expected during the quarter. So there’s your beat. I say don’t worry, those prices will fall. Can’t argue LNG will kill gas on the one hand and NAM leveraged service will thrive on the other hand. Also, gotta wonder at further multiple expansion here. Foward multiples have doubled for many names in the last 3 to 4 months and they rise daily with the stocks standing still. They are getting to be above “good times” multiples for many names (like HAL) and these are not “good times”.

  78. 78
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GS did not help their stock price by issuing shares today. Also, S&P came out and questioned the sustainability of GS’s earnings (as most of the upside was generated from their trading desk). However, the fact was that GS turned in better earnings than expected and was able to issue a boatload of shares. While GS did not beat the $5 whisper number, they did show that the financial services sector can make a profit in this frankly-terrifying market.

    Steeply-sloping yield curves + reemergence of at least some high-grade debt issuance is a good environment for banks (kinda like the warm shallow seas were heaven for echinoderms). Nice to see they are taking advantage of it. Healthy banks are the backbone of a healthy economy.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Sane, let me know when you see API, thanks much.

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit is holding in fairly well. As a matter of fact, credit rallied hard yesterday and gave back only a little today. So, it may not be time to give up on our mini-rally, yet.

    IG 178 +5bps for today

    HY 75.625 -0.25pts for today (a mere piffle!)

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the updates BOP. INTC not looking happy post numbers.

    Beerthirty for me, gotta go right some checks to various governments.

  82. 82
    Dman Says:

    BOP – interesting that you cite the dinosaurs. I think humans are more adaptable, so I doubt even severe climate change will wipe us out. But dramatic population declines are possible.

    Agree about consensus – that was my point in #37.

    Historically, Earths climate and atmospheric composition has always been modified by the dominant life-forms, for example by the algae. Therefore it is perfectly reasonable to assume that humans, by far the dominant life-form now (when you account for technology magnifying impacts) are driving the climate, at least on some timescale.

    But that is merely a theory. In order to test that theory, detailed models are tested against ever expanding historical and contemporary datasets. The fact is that these detailed models need to include CO2 to account for recent trends. If you try to ignore the CO2 driving, the models depart from the data.

    This is how scientific theories are tested: by quantitative comparison with data.

    Contrary to popular belief, the scientists involved are fully aware of previous climate changes on timescales ranging from hundreds to billions of years. It is a basic aspect of their work.

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — that’s the fun with science… and models… always more data to consider. I only have issues with those who 1) ignore facts that support a conclusion other than then one they have jumped to, and/or 2) people who think man-made climate change is a “proven fact.”

    Frankly, with the absence of sun-spot activity the last couple of years, I am more afraid of climate cooling too. I prefer Michigan withOUT the glaciers, thank-you-very-much.

    But, you’re correct, earth’s creatures do have influence over climate. With many billions and billions and billions of blue-green algae, their affect was felt over millions and millions of years. But, that was also before there was any other life-form on earth. 1) Man has only been carbon-active since the mid-1880s (or so), and 2) there are other life forms on earth that have acted and reacted to what man does. Who’s to say that there isn’t some super-form of CO2-gobbling tree evolving in the wilds of Canada even as we speak?

    Just watching the data, learning, thinking. But, not willing to don the 500-lb body suit of shame and flagellate myself over my part in “causing” climate change. No one else should force me to either.

    That’s all i’m saying. Good discussion, tho. Thanks.

  84. 84
    ram Says:

    GS can borrow at .25% and loan at 5% – awesome. GS can buy, with taxpayer money, AIG assets at 2 or 3 pennies on the dollar and sell them to hedge funds for 15 cents on the dollar – easy money!! GS received taxpayer money to turn a profit. Wow, stop the presses. Taxpayers can do without GS.

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — true. taxpayers CAN do without GS. But they are not the only ones making $$ off of the steep yield curve, sales and trading, and stingy lending. We might hate the banks… we might hate the utilities. But, we all use electricity and we all need banking. So, nice that they are not going the way of the dinosaurs… yet.

  86. 86
    Dman Says:

    BOP – As a physicist who takes his profession seriously, I assure you I would be alarmed at the idea of paying attention to a scientist who had “jumped to” their conclusions. Not to mention that doing so would normally be a form of professional suicide.

    On the question of “proven facts”.
    Even most accurate scientific theories in existence, such as quantum electrodynamics and general relativity, cannot be described as “proven facts”. They do, however, describe certain physical phenomena well enough to be treated (in practice) as proven.

    For example, semiconductor companies use quantum mechanics every day – despite the fact that we still don’t really understand the quantum world. We know how to work with it (to a point) but there is certainly not a final understanding of the underlying science.

    So should the semiconductor people wait maybe 1000 years until we *do* finally understand quantum mechanics? Or should they just go ahead & make microchips using our current (imperfect) understanding?

    The same goes for Einstein’s general relativity: GPS manufacturers use it to fine-tune their position estimates. Without it they would be significantly less accurate. Yet we already know this theory is imperfect. We know it will need to be amended (once we figure out how to do it!). Yet the GPS manufacturers just go ahead, damn them, and use it all the same!

    Now climate models are far from being in the same class as the theories just mentioned. There are many uncertainties.

    Yet governments routinely make use of vastly more imperfect models (eg economic models) to make huge decisions.

    For some reason, only in the case of climate models is it suggested that they need to be 100% proven (an impossible standard for *any* science) before we can use them.

    Even 90% certainty in climate science is rejected by the politicians, who then turn around and rely on economic advice that is (at best) a coin flip.

    Small point: didn’t the CO2 era begin with coal at the latest? A bit before 1880, I would think.

    As for the shame issue. WTF??!!

    Are we talking about the same subject?

    I assure you I don’t want you to put on a “body suit of shame” (WTF??)

    I won’t even ask bill to wear one 🙂

    And I’m certainly not going to wear one myself, so ya know. Although I’ve never seen one, so I don’t know what I’m missing. Does it make you look like Al Gore?

    I gather you are responding to those who want to make CO2 a morality campaign.

    FWFW, I think those people are:

    (a) Completely misunderstanding the species they are trying to persuade. People just aren’t going to stop using energy because someone screams at them.

    (b) Failing to take the measure of the problem they claim to be addressing, in view of the virtual impossibility of curbing energy use.

    As a scientist, my job is to be a seeker of truth and to attempt to accurately describe reality. That’s really my sole interest in this.

    And I don’t feel any guilt when I turn on the gas heating. None at all.

  87. 87
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:



    – SPX dn 17pts to 842 (a shade above intraday lows)

    – Credit little changed from the midday, IG12 176/178 (5bps wider on the day)

    – Treasuries climbed throughout the day.. 10yr yielding 2.78% from overnight highs of 2.88%; Fed made more purchases today (another ~$7.3B, same as yesterday’s amount). http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1&opertype=orig

    – Crude drops to Monday’s lows of ~$49/bbl – rather tepid trading after Mon’s selloff on the back of IEA cutting demand forecasts and the conclusion of the USO four-day roll..

    – Spot Gold declines six bucks to $889/oz; Copper dn 0.5% to $2.1285/lb, its first decline since 4/6..

    – Baltic Dry Index rises 0.9%, its second straight advance..


    Stocks go out at lows on the back of weakness in the financials tape (S&P Fins fall >7%); materials and consumer discretionary also attributing to the pullback.. we attempted a late day rally following sanguine comments from Bernanke and Summers only for it to fizzle into the close.. then w/ 5mins to go til the close, headlines hit the tape saying Citi’s new stock registration will be delayed until at least Fri, per WSJ sources (this date continues to get pushed out).. Other key topics today include: Obama waxing optimism in his “major speech” at G-Town this morning, some disappointing eco data (for a change) as retail sales come in lower than expected; a financial prices an equity offering, while earnings season kicks into high gear..

    · Earnings so far – nums seem to be coming in ahead of expectations at this point – WFC last Thurs preannounced earnings well above St views and GS followed up last night w/an upside report. JBHT kicked off transports earnings w/ a solid report while we got mixed results / commentary from the industrial distributors GWW and FAST.. In health care, JNJ is trading well after its report. Major names tonight: CSX, INTC, LLTC

    · Equity – GS became the first major financial firm to raise common equity from investors outside of the US Treasury (GS priced 40.65MM shrs @ $123 for gross proceeds of $5B). Investors have to go back to WFC’s $12B+ secondary in Nov ’08 to see the last time a major financial launched a large offering. While the GS pricing had been telegraphed in the press (inc. London Telegraph and WSJ) for weeks, the fact a financial was able to come to market is being taken as a positive (recall Bernanke in his 60 Min interview a few weeks back has said one of the things he was looking for to confirm a recovery was financial firms raising private equity). A bunch of REITs have been able to price secondaries in the last few weeks and now investors are wondering if banks will come over the coming weeks/months (sp500 financial index up ~85% from its 3/6 lows through Mon’s close).

    · Eco numbers disappoint – after a string of better-than-expected data points on the economic front, investors were confronted this morning w/a weaker retail sales report; Total retail rise sank 1.1% last month and the ex-auto category dipped 0.9%. After plunging in the second half of last year, retail sales staged a two-month rally to start the new year, though that rebound fizzled in March; there is some concern that as tax refunds peter out and crude hangs out in $50+ range, that consumer could start to struggle again following a string (Jan/Feb) of decent months. That said, support should pick up again in April and May with the Making Work Pay tax credit and the one time social security stimulus payments.

    A recap of today’s uplifting commentary from eco officials..

    · Obama’s comments from his speech at Georgetown this morning – Obama says there are some glimmers of hope amid gloom; says the actions his administration has taken to revive growth and unlock lending are starting to generate signs of progress. Yet caveats this by adding that “by no means are we out of the woods just yet.”

    · Bernanke comments from Q&A session at Morehouse College this afternoon – says the US is faring better than many other overseas economies.. gave pos comments on the role of the US$, says the dollar remains the dominant currency and doesn’t see any prospect of that changing.. says the Fed won’t keep rates too low for too long so as to prevent the threat of inflation.

    · Summers comments from CNBC interview @ 3pmET – says economy status is “mixed” but “more positive”.. he said prev this morning that the financial sector is seeing encouraging signs, but that the US has a “long way to go” working through strains in the system. Says there is well in excess of $100B left in the TARP..

    S&P500 Technical update – S+P 500 confidently seeks the 950-1000 primary “mini-bull market” S+P targets this Summer/Fall, yet the route it takes is uncertain. We think a short term top will develop over the next week (if not seen already at Mon’s 864 high), which fails to exceed the 875-878 Jan-Feb range high. Now nearing first support at 845-840 dual trendlines. Closes below 840 would force the largest correction since the March 6, 666 bottom. First we’d see 815-813, and possibly the 780 March 31 low. The market is quite overbought on near term measures, and can fall with any 1Q EPS disappointment “excuse”. We see a down last half of April….which would set up for a better May-July. Add to core longs below 800, ideally amid the 790-740 “Go 100% Long” accumulation zone.


    · Earnings tonight: INTC, LLTC, ADTN, CSX; earnings Wed: INFY, ASML, ABT, PJC, PGR, BTU, AMR; earnings Thurs: NOK, Danone, LUV, PH, FCS, HOG, BAX, GCI, SHW, PH, PPG, ISRG, CY, GOOG, Roche, APH, JPM, ITW, SON, BIIB, SABMiller; earnings Fri: BBT, C, FHN, AOS, ATU, GE, MAT, Sony-Ericsson

    · MGM’s next payment for CityCenter ($70M) is due no later than Fri April 17

    · Economics: First economic numbers for the month of April will hit Wednesday/Thursday (first Empire Manufacturing and then Philly Fed) and the Fed’s Beige Book will also hit Wed.

    · US Treasury says to host meetings of G7 and G20 finance ministers on Apr 24

    · Citi pref/common swap – WSJ sources reported late in the day that new Citi stock registration is delayed until at least Fri

    · UBS is expected to provide an earnings/write-down/jobs update for investors at tomorrow’s annual meeting; press reports have suggested the co may unveil large job cuts tomorrow – DJ/Reuters

    · Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary L. Schapiro Holds a Roundtable on Credit Ratings Agencies – Wed Apr 15

    · CC Master Trust data- The credit cards will start reporting Mar mastertrust figures this Wed/Thurs

    · IPOs – There will be two IPOs coming to market this week

    · the Environmental Protection Agency could declare as early as this week that that carbon dioxide is a danger to the public – WSJ

    · German Government To Decide On “Bad Bank” April 21; Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck would prefer the creation of several “bad banks” instead of one large bank for the entire sector (DJ)

  88. 88
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — you crack me up. In a good way. Thanks.

    And — yes — the theories about quantum physics that drive the electron decisions in microprocessing are vastly different than the complexity of “weather”… not to mention “climate change.” But, you agree with this. So all is kopacetic. (Did i spell that right?)

    Yes. Although subconcious, i do think i had AlGore in mind when i mentioned the “500-lb body suit of shame.” LOL. Funny mental picture.

  89. 89
    Dman Says:

    BOP – been meaning to ask: how would you go about shorting Treasuries, if you were to do that?

  90. 90
    sane Says:


    Crude UP 6.51MMbls
    Gasoline Down 613Mbls
    Distillates Up 87Mbls

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Thanks. That’s ugly, do they have the imports and util #s out yet?

  92. 92
    sane Says:

    Haven seen them yet

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Thanks for posting them, gotta run to practice.

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — the use of coal really didn’t get going with a full head of steam until the 2nd Industrial Revolution… about 1850. So, I gave it a few years to build up and used 1880 as a good starting point.

    Shorting treasuries… good question. Short of actually shorting treasuries, some guys i know (including investors on this site) use the TBT ETF as a proxy to short treasuries. I’ll check around. But, look at TBT and tell me what you think.

  95. 95
    PackMan Says:

    Bill – 70 – LOL

    GS – Viniar — Huh ? Does anyone know what the hell they are saying about AIG ? Talk about obfuscation …

    BOP – of course Government Sachs can make a profit in this environment when the Fed gives them free money & AIG money and then gives them a nod and wink to buy the crap out of futures and juice the market along w/ their stock price !
    Save the financials !

  96. 96
    PackMan Says:

    Obama – Long winded speech yes. Major speech ? Nah.

    C – is it true gov’t is repricing preferred conversion which will have effect of decreasing the dilutive effect somewhat ?

  97. 97
    occam Says:

    Science is fundamentally consensus. Read “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.” Individuals invent and discover, but after that an extensive social process of debate and analysis over both the theories and data takes place, until finally a consensus is reached. This consensus takes a long time to overturn when it is wrong.

    In the past, the debate was limited to those who worked in the relevant field. In fact, it is the consensus of those with enough knowledge and expertise that should, and used to, count. But now we have anyone with an opinion, especially those with ulterior motives for their opinions, chiming in. In the case of global warming, it has become a major mess, with highly uninformed and overstated opinions on both sides of the question. But in the end, debate and analysis are the only way forward, and the canard that science doesn’t involve consensus should be squashed.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Sane – did you ever see imports from API, I can’t seem to locate them.

  99. 99
    tater Says:

    I forgot that you coached. I used to coach Div I football for a living. One of the best books that I’ve ever come across is Coaching the Mental Game by Harvey Dorfman. GREAT book about people, not just about coaching. Real good read, not one of those lame how to be a champion in 10 easy lessons type of things. More of a parenting/teaching book.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Tater – much appreciated, will Amazon that up.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Thanks T – Good reviews, good table of contents. Just bought a used hard copy for $5.

  102. 102
    bill Says:


  103. 103
    bill Says:


  104. 104
    bill Says:

    “potentialed” see last paragraph


  105. 105
    bill Says:


  106. 106
    bill Says:

    interesting article


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