04
Sep
T.G.I.F. + Inventory Slide Shows – Advanced Copy
I'm posting a little early as this got a little tall with two inventory release reviews . I'll add more company specific thoughts in the morning.
Sentiment Watch: Redder. I'm sticking to my guns on the refining patch but even that is a 1.5 steps forward, 1.0 steps back kind of thing. Went to bed with some DUG calls (DUG is the double short energy ETF for those who don't know) just in case the dollar leaps out of the gate in the morning for no other reason than it now increasingly appears that the rest of the world is circling the financial drain the U.S. swirled about in for these last several months.
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Oil and Natural Gas Weekly Slide Show and Commentary
- Stocks We Care About Today Watch
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch:
- DUG - Added (DUG) $40 September Calls for $2.60 for another quick trade as we await some sort of stability in the energy groups.
Commodity Watch:
Crude Oil fell again yesterday (down $1.46 to close at $107.89) , not really due to the inventory report (see details below) but due to another rally in the Dollar. Crude appears to be headed for the century mark at which point I suspect we see a strong rally which may coincide with the OPEC meeting next week.
- Brazil To OPEC: "Thanks but no thanks". Brazil officially turned down an offer to join the Cartel.
- Shell Restarting Production, Reports Minor Topsides Damage At 3 Platforms. Expects to restart the bulk of its Gomex production over the next several days, most by late this weekend. Minor damage at Mars, Cognac, and West Delta 143 will delay production from those platforms until "no sooner than next week".
- Chevron says it is restarting some production not damaged by Gustav; majority remains shuttered.
Natural Gas fell prior to storage numbers (see way below) but rallied late in the day to close up $0.06 at $7.32. This was the first storage report (in line, worse or better) in several weeks that was not greeted by a rapid, high percentage sell off in prices. Maybe the following regional gas price postings had something to do with it:
- Henry Hub - $7.26
- Carthage, Tx (East Texas) - $6.65 - below break even for many players
- Waha, Tx (West Texas) - $5.49 - ditto
- Opal, Wyoming. $3.58 - below BE for all players
- Blanco, New Mexico (San Juan Basin) - $5.31 - around BE for many
Oil Inventory Report Review - In a nutshell a mixed bag of a report. Oil and distillate inventories light of expectations, but gasoline a little better than expected due to a surge in production. Mostly, a non-event of a report with a few exceptions I try to highlight in the following tables and graphs. Next week's report will be all "Gustaved-up" but we should see good sized product draws and a spike lower in crude imports. The market is likely to right all of that off and really cue off OPEC comments on September 9.
CRUDE OIL - Unexpected draw on inventories caused by....wait for it...higher demand for crude. Huh, as prices fell, refiners started making more product. Kind of makes sense but not something you'd do if you didn't think demand was falling off a cliff.
Utilization At Refineries Ticked Up. Which is a good thing considering that Gustav will likely have shuttered close to 20% of capacity this week due to power outages. This bump in activity yielded an increase in crude consumption which led to the slightly bigger than expected pull on crude inventories.
Imports: pretty much treaded water last week coming in just under 10 mm bopd. Look for imports to spike temporarily lower in next week's report as the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (the LOOP) was only scheduled to start taking crude deliveries again today. Note that year to date imports are off only 3% from all time peak levels seen in 2005.
U.S. Crude Production: Production does not change much from week to week, genrally runs about 5.1 mm bopd and the only reason I'm showing it this week is so that when I show it again next week you'll have a point of reference for the coming dip (probably off by 1 mm bopd or about 20%).
GASOLINE- Production jumped, demand remained steady.
Production Increased To A Record 9.4 MM BPD. Again, an odd thing to see if demand is dead.
Imports: Gasoline imports are often volatile. The thing to glean from this chart after last week's big number is that imports may be coming from Europe but there is apparently not a tidal wave of gasoline coming to U.S. shores which would overly buoy stocks and lead to falling margins. Next week this number should plunge.
Demand Continues To Hold Above 9.4 Million Barrels per Day. Demand should fall off seasonally next week but it will be interesting to see if demand continue to narrow the gap to year ago (near record) levels. Also note that gasoline demand was above the five year average last week. Price matters.
DISTILLATE- Production and demand remain high.
Natural Gas Storage Review: In a nutshell, an in line number. It could have been worse...it could have been much, much worse given the coolish August weather.
ZComments:
1) We Continue To Track Toward 3.4 Tcfe With 2 Months Left In The Storage Season. The following table takes injections over the last 4 and 10 year periods (max, min, and average) and adds an extra Bcfgpd for increased Supply (Net change in available gas or the difference between how much production has increased vs last year and the how much imports have fallen vs last year).
2) Winter, As Always Will Be Important. Each year it seems to come down to winter weather as to the next year's gas price level. This year that will be true again At present a colder than normal winter is expected.
Here are the week's graphs:
Stocks We Care About Today
Cubic Provides Haynesville Update: I have not talked about them in awhile but they are out with news and the stock has been clobbered back from its highs. More on this in comments.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch: Goldman monkeys with ratings as they remove several E&P and service names from the conviction buy list and replace them with others. (RIG) and (DVN) move onto the list, (HAL), (EOG), and (COP) come off. (BBG) cut to a sell (Rockies gas player which makes sense when you look at realizations out there). UBS ups (EOG) to Buy. (VRNM) started at Buy at Lazard with $6 target (this is that BP supported cellulosic ethanol company).
Z,
Excellent Graphs and analysis.
Have you eve looked at the relationship [covariance or coefficient of correlation] between US Nat Gas storage supply above or below average (say 5 year) as it relates to Nat Gas Price above or below average(again say 5 years).
It would be possible to remove out the weather influence by normalizing the storage numbers by CDD or HDD.
This would then measure the effect of changes in storage on Pricing [back to Suzy Sachs Queing theory……..At or near capacity in any system small changes in available supply cause large swings in price.]
I no longer have access to the statistical/math software to do this, but such an analysis would perhaps yield some very interesting results to subscribers.
September 5th, 2008 at 7:36 amP.S It would also be possible to do the reverse [normalize the supply variation and then look at what effect weather variation [CDD & HDD] have..
Intuitively, it would seem a ‘Slam Dunk’…i.e. a cold winter and low [relative] to average supply = high prices……..however the dynamics may not so simple, when you factor in expectations……like anticipated excess supply coming from unconventional plays.
September 5th, 2008 at 7:43 amNEW DELHI, Sept 5 (Reuters) – State-run Coal India Ltd will
debut as a coal importer this fiscal year and plans to tap world
markets for 4 million tonnes to fuel small units and power
producers facing shortages, its chairman said on Friday.
Coal shortages currently cost India two percent of its
installed power generation capacity, Power Secretary Anil Razdan
said, adding the country was likely to import at least 15 million
tonnes in the financial year to end-March for power generation in
addition to the Coal India purchases.
State-run firm National Thermal Power Corp NTPC.BO, a
regular player in overseas markets, is expected to meet more than
half of that figure, importing more than 8 million tonnes.
“This is uncharted waters for us. We have not imported a
single tonne of coal (so far),” Coal India’s chairman, Partha
Bhattacharyya, told reporters on the sidelines of a coal
conference in the Indian capital.
Coal-fired plants account for 65 percent of India’s power
generation capacity of 145.6 gigawatts, which lagged demand in
Asia’s third-largest economy by nearly 16 percent in July.
India’s coal demand is expected to rise to 731 million tonnes
by March 2012, while domestic production will meet only 680
million tonnes of that figure, according to government estimates.
Coal India plans to begin importing coal after firming up
contracts with local buyers.
“It has to be based on confirmed demand. People should be
ready to pay that price,” Bhattacharyya said.
He had earlier said his firm was looking for exploration
opportunities in Mozambique, South Africa and Malawi.
India’s total coal imports have grown rapidly over the past
three years from a few million tonnes to a projected 50 million
tonnes for 2009. About 20-25 percent has been coming from South
Africa and the bulk of the remainder from Indonesia.
Coal India has a joint venture with power utility NTPC Ltd,
Steel Authority of India SAIL.BO, NMDC Ltd, Rashtriya Ispat
Nigam Ltd to buy coal assets abroad.
(Reporting by Rakesh Sharma and C.J. Kuncheria, Writing by
Nidhi Verma, Editing by Mark Williams)
Fri Sep 5 12:57:14 2008 -GMT
September 5th, 2008 at 8:01 amBy Nick Heath
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures traded more than $2 lower in early
September 5th, 2008 at 8:02 amEuropean trade Friday on hardening fears that oil demand will suffer amid a
slowing in global economic growth.
Further strength in the dollar against most major currencies helped Nymex
light, sweet crude prices descend towards their weeks low, with markets
reasoning that the spread of economic malaise to Europe and beyond is weakening
other currencies relative to the dollar.
And while tropical storm activity and next week’s OPEC meeting could offer
some support ahead of the weekend, an increasingly gloomy economic picture
threatens to push prices lower still, analysts said.
“Further downside remains possible until the recent wave of weak U.S. oil
demand data and deep macroeconomic pessimism runs its course,” analysts at
Barclays Capital said.
At 1233 GMT, the front-month October Brent contract on London’s ICE futures
exchange was down $1.50 at $104.80 a barrel.
The front-month October light, sweet, crude contract on the New York
Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.49 lower at $106.40 a barrel.
The ICE’s gasoil contract for September delivery was down $14.00 at $958.75 a
metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for October delivery was down 399 points at
270.05 cents a gallon.
While latest U.S. Department of Inventory data out Thursday was largely
glossed over – the data period concerned preceded the peak of the widespread
platform evacuations and refinery shutdowns prompted by Hurricane Gustav –
readings nonetheless consolidated a trend of declining U.S consumption amid
high prices and economic slowdown. The data revealed last week’s gasoline
demand was down 1.6% and total oil demand down 3.5% from last year.
Oil prices continued to sell off Friday on signs that economic woes similar to
those in the U.S. are spreading, with growth jitters sending Asian and European
equity markets sharply lower, following on from a 3% drop in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The U.S. dollar prevailed against most major currencies
Friday, with the euro slumping to $1.4196 its lowest level this year.
“U.S. dollar strength is driving this,” a London-based oil trader said. “The
feeling is that the eurozone is behind the U.S in the cycle, therefore it’s
going to be weaker, hence the dollar’s strength.”
As the dollar climbed, Nymex light, sweet crude dropped to an intraday low of
$105.76 a barrel Friday, just above a five-month low of $105.46 a barrel set
Sept. 2.
Traders across the financial markets were looking ahead to latest U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls Data due 1235GMT Friday for further indications on the health
of the U.S. economy.
Having hurdled Thursday’s inventory data, next Tuesday’s meeting of
Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries’ ministers in Vienna attracted
closer scrutiny Friday. While a production rollover is widely anticipated, any
further fall in prices amid signs of slowing demand could prompt ministers to
look closer at production cuts.
“Further price declines from here will increase the odds of a modest cut, and
in this respect, we would suggest that the cutoff point before the cartel is
galvanized into some kind of action, will be the $100 mark,” said Edward Meir,
analyst at MF Global in New York. “Given how close we are to that level, we
suspect the cartel – even if it stands pat – will nevertheless announce that it
will reserve the option to reduce quotas prior to its next meeting if prices
continue to fall.”
While Hurricane Gustav – which churned through the Gulf of Mexico’s oil
production region before making landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast’s refining
heartland – was unable to elicit a strong crude price response, analysts
suggested Friday that tropical storm activity could still help put a floor
under crude prices as the week draws to a close.
Hurricane Ike – downgraded to a category three hurricane Friday – is of
immediate concern although track projections are unclear on whether it poses a
threat to Gulf of Mexico infrastructure. Latest forecasts from the U.S.
National Hurricane Center suggest Ike will eventually veer northwest towards
the southern tip of Florida. Tropical Storm Hanna looks increasingly likely to
avoid the Gulf, however.
“While the dollar is still having a strong influence on prices… we feel that
it will take a hurricane to come to the bulls’ rescue,” said Glen Ward, broker
at ODL securities in London. “We have Ike and Hanna keenly being tracked by
traders and they might prove just enough threat to stop fresh shorts entering
before the weekend.”
Gustav’s apparent benign impact on infrastructure helped prices swing lower
this week. Oil companies continue to return personnel to facilities, but more
than 95% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production remained shut-in Thursday,
according to the latest situation report from the U.S. Department of Energy. Of
the refineries that were in the path of Gustav 12 are still shut down – mostly
due to problems securing electricity supply – sidelining just over 2.4 million
barrels a day of refining capacity, the DOE said.
-By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires
Dow Jones Newswires
09-05-08 0837ET
Crysball – Let me get back to you a little later in the day on that.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:12 amI put a better effort into TSO last night. Charts at the link:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2933882
September 5th, 2008 at 8:17 amGreat charts today and earlier this week.
So refreshing to see data presented without the media or analyst spin.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:19 am#7 – both Z and tater.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:21 amThanks 1520, I figure the world needs a little spin correction from time to time, lol.
Interesting pop in Gold.
Goldman Sachs moving ratings all over the place (see bottom of post). Did anyone see if they have amended their oil price deck or language regarding the $149 by year end target?
September 5th, 2008 at 8:28 amTater – muchas gracias for the comments and charts on TSO! (and not just because you happen to agree with me, lol).
September 5th, 2008 at 8:30 amRIG added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman… nobody listening anymore.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:32 amNBR is UO nearly 2% on a Goldman cut from Buy to Neutral.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:32 amIOC- Elk #4 tests 105 MMCFPD
September 5th, 2008 at 8:39 amZ- I’m looking at a company and they tested a well with an 2 week+ test rate of 800 mcf/day from a single vertical frac. Is this a good rate from a single frac? Comparable to… ?
September 5th, 2008 at 8:42 amReef – saw that, they say it is a record flow rate for a well in papua new guinea. Stock up 30 cents. Unreal.
Normally I am a not a big fan of plagiarism but I was sent Tudor Pickering’s piece a minute ago and could not agree more with their opening line.
Uncle. Mercy. Enough. Stop. No Mas.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:42 amVTZ – depends on the play. It would be towards the low end of the vert Haynesville wells but great in say Illinois. Where’s it at?
September 5th, 2008 at 8:43 amvtz- what zone? Do you have daily rates, pressures, fluid recovery data?
September 5th, 2008 at 8:44 amUtica in Quebec… they have another pay zone below in the Trenton zone and then they are goign to test the Lorraine shale above the Utica which is up to 6000 ft thick. Utica is 300-1000 feet.
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/03092008/28/link-f-ccnmatthews-questerre-announces-successful-shale-gas-test-gentilly-well.html
They re-entered their Trenton well and recompleted it in the Utica Zone. That’s all the info I have but I could ask IR… I talk to them lots. I have shares in Questerre.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:50 amDUG chart breaking out…kind of says it all about the groups right now.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:50 amForest oil and Talisman are the big boys in the play.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:51 amVTZ – just off the cuff that sounds light for an IP but I am more accustomed to looking at wells out of the Trenton/Blackriver in the states and its been a long time since I looked at what TLM was doing up there so its probably an insufficient bit of knowledge on my part to judge them by. In other words I don’t know what that should look like in Quebec but it will be judged by the surrounding tests. If you can get more data we can tear into it a little more. You realize of course that finding more gas is now deemed a bad thing, right?
September 5th, 2008 at 8:54 amYeah I know… I’m just hoping their NYMEX+1 pricing shuts in some other production first, heh.
I can find the Trenton rate as well. The Utica zone is shallower than Barnett and the Larraine is even above that, but I’ll look into everything and let you know.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:57 amIke could go many places.
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2008/atlantic/ike/modelsmap_zoom1.html
September 5th, 2008 at 9:09 amDollar down, oil down. Thinking on the Street seems to be (and I’m hearing and reading this):
1) hurricanes need to put up or shut up. Agreed
September 5th, 2008 at 9:15 am2) OPEC won’t cut with prices above $100. I think they will talk quotas and that their $100 is our WTI = $103. The OPEC basket is lower than WTI by a $3 to $4 per barrel. The basket closed last night at $103.64
3) Earnings estimates are completely unreliable. Don’t necessarily agree as hedges will begin to matter more and more and their has been little in the way of slow down by the service companies. I dare anyone to find it in the rig counts.
4) Take no action until E&P firms cut budgets. How can you argue with that.
5) Sell winners to pay for losers.
Z – VLO getting hit today over 3%, as oil continues south. Any thoughts?
September 5th, 2008 at 9:18 amIsle – re VLO. Two thoughts.
1) Yes, gasoline taking a dive, down 1.8% vs oil’s dip of 1.2% plus the move in the broad market. Gasoline is getting tweaked by the path fluctuations of Hurricane Ike. I think the storm is too far away to tell yet as do the spaghetti models.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:22 am2) I need to open a hot dog stand until this blows over. Sheesh. Sort of glad I have the DUG calls on again but its pretty thin solace compared to the thumping on everything else.
ZTRADE: Out DUG September $40 calls for $3.40, up 31%.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:29 amHey, my first biz was a hot dog stand. You’d be surprised how many times you can re-heat those little guys! (Drunken dope smokin employees kept dropping it off the trailer though, good thing they’re made of steel). Thanks for the nice comments 1520, Z.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:33 amToo bad there isn’t a sector of the economy that is doing well, good cash flow, real busy, lots of manufacturing going on, with zero unemployment.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:46 amI see where HK ceo sold about 250k shares, about 10% of his holdings. Does this remove ‘for sale sign’ at least near term?
If this thing breaks 26 or so the long term chart is going to start looking like a dot com.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:49 amGoldman upgraded NBR when it was around $50 after it moved up steadily from $26. Now the downgrade at $32. Can’t wait for the next installment.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:49 amGary – very funny.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:50 amGoldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its U.S. natural gas price forecast for 2009 by 20 percent because of lower demand from power plants and cooler summer weather.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:51 amBe Water: Here are my thoughts on Floyd’s sale. They said a couple of months ago they were looking to grow the business and not sell just yet.
HK’s CEO Floyd Wilson Selling Shares. Why I don’t think it is a sell signal but something to watch.
First, thoughts on insider transactions:
1. CEO’s and other executives sell their own stock for a variety of reasons: diversification and new or additional house being chief among them. Approaching retirement, illness, mistress, yachts, and approaching bad news for the stock fall further down the reason list.
2. CEO’s and other executives buy their own stock chiefly for two reasons: either they think it is going to go up or they want you to think it is going to go up.
3. In looking at insider selling key considerations I look at are as follows:
1. How much was sold as a percentage of holdings. If they sell out, especially top management this is obviously a red flag. As a general rule, the larger the company, the more I get uncomfortable with large percentage transactions by top management but I don’t have a strict level since it depends on how people are paid (cash vs stock).
2. What was paid for those shares or what level were they acquired at.
3. Is the sale part of a planned diversification program or 10b5-1 program?
4. Percentage of compensation from shares vs cash. If they are paid entirely in shares than you should expect to see more in share sales.
5. Is there a continual outflow with no purchases or is the sale more one-time in nature.
6. Is it just one member of management or is everyone jumping ship?
7. What has the stock been doing and what is the current and long term business outlook?
Looking at Floyd’s Sale:
1. Reason for the sale – unknown so no help with #1 above.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:51 am2. How much was sold: 250,000 shares for proceeds of $8.9 mm. This does not appear to be part of a planned program sale.
3. How much does he still hold: 2.6 mm shares which at Friday’s close of $34.61 equals $90 million.
4. So he sold 9% of his holdings from the start to the end of last week.
5. Is there a pattern of selling? No, the last transaction was a purchase made back in March of 2007. He has not sold shares in the last 2 years.
6. How’s he get paid. $600,000 salary + $1 mm bonus last year plus 142,000 restricted shares and 53,000 stock options. So its a nice living but not world beater. His net worth would appear to be tied up in the shares.
7. What are the other members of management doing? Almost entirely buying shares.
8. As to what the stock has been doing, its off its recent highs with the group but by no means tanking and is up strong for the last 52 week period. The business outlook is strong and the stock stands at the forefront of a new large shale play that should help ensure double digit unit volume growth and a large prospect inventory for the next several years. In conclusion I’d bet he’s diversifying his holdings and I’d say he is still quite aligned with shareholders.
9. From a practical standpoint, the filings for sales from the 27th, 28th, and 29th hit the SEC website on the 29th and the market probably did not notice them so their may be a negative reaction when the market opens on Tuesday but I would think it would be relatively short lived.
Dman – yep, GS is not ruling the roost right now.
Popeye – was that for 2009 or 2008? Also, did they say anything about their oil number…not that it really matters.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:53 amnew 11AM update on Crown Weather has Ike’s Stormtrack going into GOM , and missing S. Florida.
http://www.crownweather.com/ike.html
September 5th, 2008 at 9:58 amThanks – Crys. If I were a daytrader I’d probably take UNG or DIG calls here.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:12 amRE:GS
September 5th, 2008 at 10:16 amhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=amBA_tF46rik&refer=energy
Ike projected path:
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2008/atlantic/ike/trackmap_zoom1.html
Its pretty far out to say this is close to accurate and the market is not giving it any credit at all right now.
A thought on gas prices and E&P names in the area. A series of shut ins will reduce the amount of gas put in storage. Combine that with fear of a cold winter and you could get a bounce. For names that have a high degree or all their production coming from the regions, costs will be a big number for the quarter. CPE, EPL, SGY etc all to see fat lease operating expense if they keep having to pull people off and on the platforms. Also, timing delays on project startups for them could cause misses in production beyond storm related shut in losses. Will do a little work towards this end.
Re Goldman, I agree with them on BBG, that is going to suffer in this gas price environment.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:24 amcan someone remind me of that symbol that is a dry shipper trading in the teens… pays huge dividend?
September 5th, 2008 at 10:26 amOCNF; 18% yield
September 5th, 2008 at 10:28 amStar Bulk (SBLK)
September 5th, 2008 at 10:30 amsorry, SBLK not in the teens, but pays 15.6&
September 5th, 2008 at 10:32 amBird, do you watch the coals? Talk about a thumping.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:33 amyes. made $ shorting MEE in 2006 but missed going long in 2007. of course, MEE would not be my first choice for a long position in coal.
didn’t short it this time around b/c following coal is a lot more complicated than it used to be. worth it, but can’t just extend an e&p macro-view to the coal sector. there is a rising and falling tide of boats in energy, but coal has it’s own issues and catalysts.
long answer. bottom line = not up to speed… but want to be at some point. coal and nat gas = the US’s strength in energy. funny thing, the greenies have no problem buying wood-burning fireplaces to heat their vermont homes, but turn out in droves to protest any addition/expansion to coal plants. running the dirtiest coal plant is magnitutes “cleaner” than lighting your wood-burning fireplace.
perceptions create reality, tho.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:50 am(what’s a “magnitute”? ha)
September 5th, 2008 at 10:51 amthe coal stocks where hedge fund darlings. there is gonna be a slew of redemptions for sept 30th. we talked about this in august… now all these lovable darlings are being sent packing. ANR, ACI, PCX, WLT are all being kicked to the curb after the PMs got back from their august vacations.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:59 amRe #24, Item 5: Some stocks are at, or near yearly lows. There is a point where that doesnot apply and it appears big money is shying away from energy/commodity stocks. It appears the energy stocks could become the losers in the near future.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:00 amHear ya kicked to the curb…like SLB at $84…nobody believes the estimates for the service guys with oil down here.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:01 amyep. SLB is one of the darlin’s too.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:03 amfrankly, all else equal, we just might see a mrkt bounce after sept 20th or so. HFs will be largely done selling and should leave some pretty attractive pickings behind for the long-term value guys.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:06 amSaw a number of larger E&P’s go briefly green, then back to red, its like a shooting gallery.
Ram – take a look at the weekly chart of XNG. At 550 it is still up from a year ago. This is not as much a flush on fundamentals as it is of necessity and of thinking the up trade is over re oil and the dollar.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:08 amsorry to keep posting… but it’s better than watching the mrkt.
tell me again why SD is back to it’s IPO price of almost a yr ago? it’s one that should benefit from a post-sept 20th bounce, i would think.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:09 amHere ya on 51 Bird. I know I don’t want to be short on Mondays either as consolidation and capex cuts are coming.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:09 amat some point XOM is going to follow BP back to north america.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:11 amBird – search me. The $40 calls I wrote the other day will expire worthless which is little solace. Plan to hold for the long long term there. You know people said they didn’t like the well where they didn’t find the Cab1 (I think it was on the west side) and the stock spiraled. Rockies gas probably perceived to be hurting them as well.
Please keep talking. You’re keeping me awake plus there are things to be studied even during this.
Headfake rally on E&P group started.
OPEC should cut production as they have said already they see a massive build in inventories at present production levels over the winter. Maybe they are scare enough of green policies in the U.S. from Obama that they are willing to dip oil to help a McCain ticket (not that I think that will work) but they have done it before (2006 mid terms). Anyway, a cut and Ike in the Gulf would make for an interesting market next week.
XOM has got to do something. Their “signed” deals just keep getting worse and the NOC’s clench more power.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:17 amIs Tom Ward still restricted from buying more stock?
September 5th, 2008 at 11:21 amXOM…. just wait until their accountants (finally) make them write down their reserves, based on the fact that oil ain’t going back to $45 and “production taxes” jump to 100% somewhere around there.
that day is coming. if XOM is smart (which they are, except for their snobbery bias against exploring in their own backyard), then they will have accumulated some cheap domestic production by that day.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:22 amdon’t know. i’ll ask.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:23 amsorry. my easy contact at SD is out today. don’t blame him.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:23 amSD. a number of the top holders are HFs that don’t have traditionally strong e&p backgrounds, fwiw. will probably see that a lot of them headed for the door this quarter.
short-term investing is hardly “investing” at all.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:28 amtodays post- agreed on Distillate exports driving the volumes. I was hoping that you would make reference to the monthly supply report on gasoline demand showing 4.5% decrease June YTD as this seems to be more the trend. Plus,The weekly numbers as you know are based on preliminary current numbers vs. LY adjusted numbers.
Traders will try to drive price of oil down to below OPEC threshold so they can ride it up to $149 all over again after OPEC cuts production on lower prices.
Refiners seems to be a good short term trade over next weeks numbers. Sentiment will likely change by Tuesday. What would be your best bet. TSO VLO FTO
September 5th, 2008 at 11:30 amcredit mrkt getting better, after blowing out this morning. that is what is pulling stocks up, imho.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:31 amI should be more precise
September 5th, 2008 at 11:38 amJune YOY Gasoline DN 4.6%
May YOY DN 2.4%
June YTD DN 2%
So 4.6% decrease was only for month of June.
Tater,
Thanks much for the work on TSO. Taking it to heart. Sure looks like it wants to begin a nice rise and we know why fundamentally, but that loud crashing background noise from fund liquidations keeps shattering my confidence.
Somebody hep me: When are these fund liquidations going to end! I know BOPRC says after Sept. 20 or so, and my thanks for that, but what is to prevent another one going south after that? I think this has been our major problem all along. It’s very frustrating. Anyone else have any idea when the fund liquidations will be over?
September 5th, 2008 at 11:41 amThe dollar is really picking up steam this afternoon. Look how gold and the Euro have really backed off. This is more added steam for selling oil down today.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:44 amHad to take a call.
Thanks for checking re SD Bird.
MD – its my weekly review of weekly numbers so I did not reference the monthlies, I would point out that you’re looking at some pretty trailing evidence (June) in a much higher gas price enviro. and that the report (the weekly) is showing up gasoline production. I agree the weekly has overstated in the past. It has also done the opposite from time to time and I think the current situation is improvement. Also, its a study of relativity to past weekly numbers. To me that’s pretty important. As to the monthly numbers if you look at the trend the weeklies are following that same bell curve with lower YoY consumption back in June and in July.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:51 amRumor Watch: Hearing the Discovery pipeline has 3 leaks due to Gustav and will be out of service for 60 to 90 days for repairs. This is a 0.6 Bcfgpd line that was running at about half capacity prior to the storm. Not that huge a deal by itself (about 1.2% of U.S. supply at full charge) but it may be an indicator that all is not well in pipeline land.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:53 amRE: #41
Thanks!
September 5th, 2008 at 11:54 amMD: those would be my picks. TSO and FTO have the benefit of not being along the Gulf Coast too.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:54 amBy David Bird
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Until the Capline crude oil pipeline from the Gulf Coast
to the Midwest becomes fully operational and normal offshore oil output
resumes, the possibility of further requests for oil loans from the
government’s emergency stockpile is unclear, an Energy Department official said
Friday.
David Johnson, deputy assistant secretary for petroleum reserves, said issues
surrounding Marathon Corp.’s (MRO) request for loans of crude oil from the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve can’t be cleared up until Capline issues are
resolved.
DOE said late Wednesday that Marathon has requested oil from the SPR for its
Catlettsburg, Ky., and Robinson, Ill., refineries, but the specific amount had
yet to be determined. Johnson said that to meet Marathon’s request, the SPR
crude would need to flow through the 1.2-million barrels-a-day-capacity
Capline.
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), operator of the 632-mile pipeline that originates at
St. James, La., and ends in Patoka, Ill., said late Thursday it began moving
oil through the system from Liberty, Miss., to the terminus in Illinois and
plans to restart the remaining parts of the line in Louisiana “over the weekend
using a combination of portable generators and local utility power as it comes
online.
“We expect to be running in sync with other systems that feed into Capline as
they come online,” Shell said.
Johnson said that as Capline restarts and as offshore crude oil production
resumes, refiners’ potential needs for SPR crude will become clearer. He said
the relatively little interest shown so far by refiners in SPR crude loans
shouldn’t be taken as a signal that more requests won’t be filed. As of 12:30
p.m. EDT Thursday, the government said 95.2% of Gulf oil output, or about 1.24
million barrels of a day of crude, was still shut in.
The fluidity of the situation, as refineries, pipelines and other
infrastructure gradually return to operation, was highlighted earlier in the
week when Citgo Petroleum requested and received approval for an SPR crude loan
of 250,000 barrels for its Lake Charles, La., refinery. But Citgo withdrew the
request within a day as a vital waterway to the refinery, the Calcasieu ship
channel, was partially reopened.
The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which handles about 10% of total U.S. crude
oil imports, began operating at reduced rates early Friday after shutting down
in advance of Hurricane Gustav a week ago.
Latest Energy Information Administration data for June show that Marathon, the
nation’s fifth-largest refiner, accounted for about 5.4% of total U.S., imports
in the month, or about 538,000 barrels a day, of 9.994 million barrels a day.
Marathon shipped from Morgan City, La., to its 226,000-barrels-a-day
Catlettsburg, Ky., refinery, 65,000 barrels a day of crude in the month, the
data show. Of that total, 50,000 barrels a day was medium-grade sour crude from
Saudi Arabia, with a sulfur content ranging from 1.87% to 2.54% and API gravity
range of 32.09 to 32.5 degrees.
For the 204,000-barrels-a-day Robinson, Ill., refinery, Marathon shipped from
the Gulf about 43,500 barrels a day of crude in June. The oil was a mixture of
light, sweet from the U.K. (16,867 barrels a day), with a 0.81% sulfur content
and an API gravity of 36.54 degrees, and low-sulfur Angolan sweet crude (16,567
barrels a day), with a 0.36% sulfur content and an API gravity of 33.4 degrees.
The remainder of the June imports for Robinson was 10,100 barrels a day of
Saudi crude, with a 1.82% sulfur content and an API gravity of 32.97 degrees,
the EIA data show.
-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires
September 5th, 2008 at 11:54 amDow Jones Newswires
09-05-08 1241ET
Uncle Phil – Yesterday
http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html
September 5th, 2008 at 11:56 amNote the amount of crude still down is 95%…by now I would have thought that number would be better.
Power continues to be a problem for the refiners and for the pipeline companies (compression).
September 5th, 2008 at 11:56 amNo problem mahout. It’s a tough market. I still think a break above 18.80 is a buy signal, so there is no hurry to play as the reward from there could be pretty nice.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:57 amI HATE RED! I’d rather look at Sarah Palin. Sam, give us a quote. Close the market. Start the weekend. Away with this RED.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:00 pmapbd
Sam – 72 = brilliant.
MD – I will try to remember to post a weekly demand overlaid with monthly data going back aways this weekend. First weekend of soccer for the season so no promises, lol.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:01 pmBy Stephen Cox, CMT
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Three selected oil stocks are uniformly weak on the
charts, which perhaps is to be expected, given the slide in crude-oil futures
prices since early July.
It’s notable that all three stocks are approaching potential bottoms as of
this writing, but in a couple of instances those potential bottoms are
technical breakdown levels.
In other words, trading below supports would be the signals for long-term
downtrends.
For example, shares of BP PLC (BP) are trading around $53.19, which is the
current low for the downtrend from the November 2007 high of $79.77. They’re
targeting a potential bottom at $51.59. A renewed uptrend on the daily chart
wouldn’t be in place unless shares reversed to the upside and took out $58.13
resistance.
A move below $51.59 would be going for $49.10, which is a technical breakdown
point for a nearly 26-year uptrend. A confirmed breakout would point shares
down to $45.09, or to $20.93 in case of a strong downtrend.
Royal Dutch Shell Game
Find the uptrend in shares of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA). Truthfully, there
isn’t one now.
Shares peaked last May at $88.73, which is the current high for a nearly
20-year uptrend. But they’re trading as of this writing near the low of a
corrective downtrend, $61.47, recorded earlier Friday. Evidently, shares are
going for $60.11-$58.74 support, which is a potential bottom. In any case, a
move above $65.69 would begin an uptrend on the daily chart. In that case,
traders could reasonably expect an initial move up to $69.00.
The risk for the long-term bulls would be decisive trading below $58.74. That
development would signal the breakdown of that 20-year uptrend, and an initial
downtrend to $51.81. Extended lower trading would be targeting $30.12.
Exxon Mobil Looks Best Of Three
The strongest performer of the three selected shares is Exxon Mobil Corp.
(XOM). Its shares are trading near $75, and so are well above a long-term
technical breakdown point at $45.91. Even so, shares are trading practically at
a downtrend low of $74.69, and there’s evidently more room on the downside.
Current trading is technically weak below $81.74-$83.63 resistance. Evidently
they’re targeting the $69.25-$62.27 support band, which may contain an
important low.
For now, the nearest stop is $76.65.
(Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones
Newswires.
Dow Jones Newswires
September 5th, 2008 at 12:07 pm09-05-08 1300ET
Feeling a little tradey here.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:13 pmLooking at all the models none show it making it the way to oil/gas land. All show some sort of hook to the north.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
After loading one of the models click the FWD button to animate.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:14 pmDid you see these?
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2008/atlantic/ike/modelsmap_zoom1.html
September 5th, 2008 at 12:19 pm#76 A deal
NAtional Post- Enbridge to lift Force Majeuere on 2 GOM pipelines – UTOS and 1.12 BCFPD Sitngray. They operate 6 pipeline systems in the GOM.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:19 pmi had a job at the chicago board of trade as a clerk one summer when i was in college – on slow fridays toward the end of the summer (typically when the market was down and everyone was frustrated) the traders would play a game called “the bag” that wound up as the bonus system for the summer clerks. Today reminds me of the proper set up for this game – at least in the energy names.
A trader would take a paper bag and put some money in it, the bag would get passed around the particular pit and all the traders had a chance to put money in the bag. When the bag made it all the way up and down the pit it would get passed to the pit clerk who would then secretively count the money that wound up in the bag. The total was written down and known only to the one pit clerk. Then “bids” would be assembled secretly as each trader that had put money in the bag wrote down how much money they thought was in the bag. (At this point there was a lot of jostling, yelling, pushing, as all the traders would try and see how much everyone else was writing down.) All the bids would then be given to the pit clerk who would review and determine which trader had guessed the closest to the amount in the bag. The entire contents of the bag would be given to that trader and then that trader would give the money to his clerk as their summer bonus. Traders would occasionally try to fix the game by stuffing the bag with a bunch of money and then guessing close to their artificially large number. If it had been a good summer then there would be a couple rounds of the bag until the summer clerks all went home with something.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:26 pmHow much would you knock off of NG injection for the coming week.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:28 pmWould you say that this week would have been 80 BCF based on same CDD before Gustav. When the street considers that Gustav after effects may linger the 3.4 TCF may look like a 3.2. Not an oversupply scenario just yet.
Z,
Against a sea of red, IOC has managed a green of $.80 (2.8%) on the news. Better than nothing.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:33 pmI’d guess you lose 30 to 40 Bcf of injections but not keeping demand the same either. That’s roughly 7 Bcfgpd x 7 days less some weak demand in the South which got rained on and was pretty cool in places all week.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:33 pmMahout – true.
The more impressive name is NFX with 2 whole days of up.
1520. I think I was the clerk in that scenario once and the boss kept the bonus, lol.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:34 pmTrue – i’ve been on the short end more than once. All part of the process.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:36 pm#80: spaghetti chart of Ike looks like some kind of backward swimming octopus, coming to wrap its tentacles around some rigs.
OK, too much caffeine again.
NFX decline has been nutty, as per your comment a few days ago, i.e. they are valued as if they have no shales and all hurricane damaged GOM. So it oughta be going up!
Speaking of nutty, NOV at 10 x ’09 and RIG at 7.3.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:04 pmNothing in oil or gasoline prices for this.
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2008/atlantic/ike/trackmap_zoom1.html
or taking the opposite view, down $2 on oil and 6 cents on gasoline does incorporate and Ike strike.
I think PR’s on curtailments are being drawn up. Monday would be a good day to say, “We’re showing some capital discipline and easing activity levels to forestall service inflation in this time of easing commodity prices. A month ago, we thought this was a minor disturbance in the futures market but due to exaggerated views of domestic production on the part of market participant have resulted in several gas markets falling into marginal economic status. We see no reason to continue to advance volumes into this sort of environment in a growth for the sake of growth and not growth for the sake of return fashion, blah, blah, blah…”
September 5th, 2008 at 1:05 pmDUG Retreating. May play it and some DIG. If that just gives you a headache it means I think we will be very volatile next week and in both directions. I think early week may see a pop on storm fear and group news. Late week may get disappointed by OPEC.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:08 pmZ – not following your lines 1-3 in #89. Can you spell it out a tad?
September 5th, 2008 at 1:09 pmSome refiners going green: TSO, FTO.
Hanful of E&P too. HK thinking about it.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:13 pmDman – sure, just saying either Ike is in peoples thoughts as a possible gulf strike and that only gets you oil down 2 instead of oil even lower or it is not in their thoughts at all in which case forecasts that shift it to the west and into the Gulf may cause a rally in crude and gasoline. Watching the refiners closely and they started to recover the groups loss on the day with the latest revision to the forecast that hooked it into the Gulf.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:15 pmDman, sorry but I think I need one of those “I want to believe” posters for my office regarding a recovery in prices.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:17 pmEmphatically agree with #94.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:24 pmIs some of this based on Ike again? I am leaning to yes?
September 5th, 2008 at 1:43 pmZTRADE: CHK September $45 Calls for a bounce next week. Small trade for $1.60. Group feeling well oversold and I’m looking for capital budget cuts in the near term from some players as some regional gas plays turn marginally economic.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:43 pmCramer sez today is the last day that hedgies can “sell in bulk” to return money to investors.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:53 pmYou would think that OII at 52WK lows would be ripe for a turn as the hurricanes line up in a “landing pattern” towards the GOM.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:57 pmDman – hmmm, not sure I understand what calendar he is using to determine that. Must be based on a quarterly redemption date.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:57 pmNot while I’m long so ram.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:58 pmZ – #100, well as it happens, he explained it all in great detail by saying that “he knows this” and if we want to know how, he refers us to his “Street Addict” book.
I declined his generous offer for me to buy his book, but I’m prepared to believe that he knows the hedgie calendar & yes he is clearly talking about redemptions.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:02 pmZ – what would it take for you to warm up to NBR here? It’s got everything going for it, up to and including a sell (well, OK, “neutral”) from GS.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:05 pmCorrection to the Q in #103: Nevermind the “here”, but just “what would it take for you to warm up to NBR”
September 5th, 2008 at 2:09 pmRe OII: Aren’t there mandatory inspections before platforms and pipelines can go back online? It seems like OII will gain revenue this quarter regardless of a massive strike in the GOM.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:10 pmpresent trajectory of Ike looks like Hurr winds would be going into Al. How much harm could that do to the O&G in GOM.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:12 pmDman – re 104. Time. Sentiment is so bad fundies don’t matter. Rig counts need to stay high as well and day rates need to be flat. So far so good on the last 2 but the Street just sees the rig count as another bubble yet to pop.
Ram – I think if there is an obvious problem they can get called in, otherwise the operators do a lot of it themselves.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pmLeft for a bit. Does my screen really show oil down and CLR up? Can’t be right, it’s a proxy for oil. It can’t possibly trade as a company with fundamentals. I’m ruined.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pmAlabama = None.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pmIf it continues this way would the rigs be shut down again and how many hours before
September 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pmmd – that’s a complete judgment call on the part of the operators. They’ll leave themselves enough time to get people out safely moving from east to west. If it goes Gulf even angle at Alabama it should support prices until the turn north is certain. Then the hangover will again be worse than the short party I’d bet.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:18 pmTater – Did you link your charts to this website?
September 5th, 2008 at 2:18 pmram, I don’t understand. So I guess no.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:19 pmRam – No, I didn’t do it yet. Tater, if you will give me a good start page link I will add it to the blogroll at upper right.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:20 pmAnything less than a CAT 1 considered cause for shutdown for outlying areas
September 5th, 2008 at 2:20 pmWell it’s a Buy Gustav get Ike free so it’s worth a shot. I just bought some TSO Sep 20 @ .50. A touch high but hope to get one of two by Wed.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:24 pmThanks ZMAN and TATER.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:24 pmyes, they shutdown for tropical storms. If it grows there is no chance to chopper people out so you can’t take the chance. If its close, people come off.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:25 pmZMAN – Sorry for beating a “dead horse”, but does each platform or pipeline have to be certified “safe and secure” before it can be back online? If so, can it only be deemed so by an approved individual?
September 5th, 2008 at 2:28 pmDon’t mean to be overly ignorant (but I am). I am calling the page OilLogic and all I have is the link that I usually post (it is always the same page link):
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2933882
If there is more to it than that, you’re going to have to coach me up.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:30 pmRam – As I understand it, and please know that I could be wrong, the operators, guys like COP and APC, have company men who can do this. I think they file a report with the MMS and turn it back on once they are sure everything is sound. Don’t think in most cases a third party is needed. I do think OII may see a slight bump in revenues but the real $ would come from damage in deepwater which few people could take care of. If you look at their quarterly financials you can see that segment of their biz balloon post 2005 and now it has virtually gone away. Its pretty high margin work too as you can imagine that people want their stuff back onstream muey pronto.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:35 pmThanks ZMAN.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pmTater – When I click that link it takes me to your TSO chart. From there can I see your other charts or are they gone?
September 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pmcould have been an entire year’s worth of performance in just SD’s swing today.
this borders on “too much for sane people to take.” might try a new line of work. (“You want frys with that, sir?”)
September 5th, 2008 at 2:37 pmRam – you are as always quite welcome and always ask. That’s on the fringe of my knowledge as I’m a finance guy and the closest I’ve come to that is a helicopter ride out to a N. Sea rig during a TLM dog and pony show. Good scotch, liked the Haggis too, but those guys need to do something about their weather.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:38 pmnote to self: next time TRA drops below it’s 200 day MA and nat gas prices are low, buy. TRA benefits from low nat gas prices and nice, midwest demand.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:42 pmThey are stored in another master group. I am only allowed to show one group at a time. It could be the master or a smaller one like today’s TSO focus. I just copy it over to my public page (which is the link).
September 5th, 2008 at 2:50 pmIt is very hard to keep the master current. I would much prefer to just show a focussed group (it’s kind of an art-form so I equate it with leaving the bathroom door open, necessary and real important for me, but not really for sharing).
It’s nice that you are considering linking to it, but I know it’s not some professional thing so far, so don’t worry about it if we put it off until a different day.
Any one in Dallas want to golf in the oilman’s golf tounament on Monday morning? I have been invited on Cameron’s team and he has 2 more slots open up. Never know.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:53 pmBird – TRA, AGU, and POT.
I used to track them and GRO (before I think it got killed by gas).
September 5th, 2008 at 2:54 pmTater – I will absolutely not put it off. Will be done a few after the close. Thanks. I’m going to call it Tater’s TA or Tater’s Ticker or whatever you’d like really.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:57 pmWyoming – You know, you should play with Dr. Beeper and myself. I mean, he’s been club champion for three years running and I’m no slouch myself.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:59 pmCaddyshack I. We must designate the original from the sequel piece of …
“What we have here is failure to communicate”
September 5th, 2008 at 3:01 pmz – POT and AGU are a little more of a mining project… TRA is straight nat gas converter. anyway, that’s how i think of ’em.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:02 pmTater’s TA sounds cool.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:03 pmJust an aside because it’s Friday. Take a look at AMGN, been playing in it all day. It is the definition of an island reversal possibly about to happen. Emphasis on possibly. But just look at that fat pig just hanging in the air like that.
tater – lol. thanks for pointing out the AMGN technical interpretation of the chart. (great visual)
September 5th, 2008 at 3:09 pmTater’s TA added to link list at upper left. Here you can find information on everything from dead cat bounces to fat hanging pigs.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:14 pmZ Just practicing my cut & paste http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/09/05/its-time-to-buy-energy.aspx
September 5th, 2008 at 3:15 pmPigs with wings. Thanks and everybody have a great weekend.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:18 pmZ,
If I read it right and am not asleep, dreaming:
IOC was up 9.0% and NFX was up 4.1% today. I hope these are not sell signals.
Mother Market may be giving us some green salve to put on our wounds (poor baby!)on Friday only to slug us into unconciousness next Monday. She likes to do stuff like that.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:22 pmMahout – no telling. This is one of my reasons not to be short on weekends.
Cat 4 track into Gomex now. Probably changes over the weekend to a light breeze hitting New York instead but for now it makes the beer a little sweeter.
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2008/atlantic/ike/trackmap_zoom1.html
September 5th, 2008 at 4:42 pmBOPRC,
Re:#124
I’m thinkin the same way only I would say, “Want ketchup on that milkshake, Dude?”
Wyoming,
Re:#132
Cool Hand Luke
Have a great weekend everybody.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:27 pmThanks Bird – been awhile since I tracked ’em.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:31 pm