T.G.I.F. + Inventory Slide Shows – Advanced Copy

I'm posting a little early as this got a little tall with two inventory release reviews . I'll add more company specific thoughts in the morning.

Sentiment Watch: Redder. I'm sticking to my guns on the refining patch but even that is a 1.5 steps forward, 1.0 steps back kind of thing. Went to bed with some DUG calls (DUG is the double short energy ETF for those who don't know) just in case the dollar leaps out of the gate in the morning for no other reason than it now increasingly appears that the rest of the world is circling the financial drain the U.S. swirled about in for these last several months. 

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil and Natural Gas Weekly Slide Show and Commentary
  4. Stocks We Care About Today Watch
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • DUG - Added (DUG) $40 September Calls for $2.60 for another quick trade as we await some sort of stability in the energy groups.

Commodity Watch:

Crude Oil fell again yesterday (down $1.46 to close at $107.89) , not really due to the inventory report (see details below) but due to another rally in the Dollar. Crude appears to be headed for the century mark at which point I suspect we see a strong rally which may coincide with the OPEC meeting next week.

  • Brazil To OPEC: "Thanks but no thanks". Brazil officially turned down an offer to join the Cartel.
  • Shell Restarting Production, Reports Minor Topsides Damage At 3 Platforms. Expects to restart the bulk of its Gomex production over the next several days, most by late this weekend. Minor damage at Mars, Cognac, and West Delta 143 will delay production from those platforms until "no sooner than next week".
  • Chevron says it is restarting some production not damaged by Gustav; majority remains shuttered.


Natural Gas fell prior to storage numbers (see way below) but rallied late in the day to close up $0.06 at $7.32. This was the first storage report (in line, worse or better) in several weeks that was not greeted by a rapid, high percentage sell off in prices. Maybe the following regional gas price postings had something to do with it:

  • Henry Hub - $7.26
  • Carthage, Tx (East Texas) - $6.65 - below break even for many players
  • Waha, Tx (West Texas) - $5.49 - ditto
  • Opal, Wyoming. $3.58 - below BE for all players
  • Blanco, New Mexico (San Juan Basin) - $5.31 - around BE for many

Oil Inventory Report Review - In a nutshell a mixed bag of a report. Oil and distillate inventories light of expectations,  but gasoline a little better than expected due to a surge in production. Mostly, a non-event of a report with a few exceptions I try to highlight in the following tables and graphs. Next week's report will be all "Gustaved-up" but we should see good sized product draws and a spike lower in crude imports. The market is likely to right all of that off and really cue off OPEC comments on September 9.

CRUDE OIL - Unexpected draw on inventories caused by....wait for it...higher demand for crude. Huh, as prices fell, refiners started making more product. Kind of makes sense but not something you'd do if you didn't think demand was falling off a cliff.

Utilization At Refineries Ticked Up. Which is a good thing considering that Gustav will likely have shuttered close to 20% of capacity this week due to power outages. This bump in activity yielded an increase in crude consumption which led to the slightly bigger than expected pull on crude inventories.

Imports: pretty much treaded water last week coming in just under 10 mm bopd. Look for imports to spike temporarily lower in next week's report as the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (the LOOP) was only scheduled to start taking crude deliveries again today. Note that year to date imports are off only 3% from all time peak levels seen in 2005. 

U.S. Crude Production: Production does not change much from week to week, genrally runs about 5.1 mm bopd and the only reason I'm showing it  this week is so that when I show it again next week you'll have a point of reference for the coming dip (probably off by 1 mm bopd or about 20%).




GASOLINE- Production jumped, demand remained steady.

Production Increased To A Record 9.4 MM BPD. Again, an odd thing to see if demand is dead.

Imports: Gasoline imports are often volatile. The thing to glean from this chart after last week's big number is that imports may be coming from Europe but there is apparently not a tidal wave of gasoline coming to U.S. shores which would overly buoy stocks and lead to falling margins. Next week this number should plunge.

Demand Continues To Hold Above 9.4 Million Barrels per Day. Demand should fall off seasonally next week but it will be interesting to see if demand continue to narrow the gap to year ago (near record) levels. Also note that gasoline demand was above the five year average last week. Price matters.



DISTILLATE- Production and demand remain high.



Natural Gas Storage Review: In a nutshell, an in line number. It could have been worse...it could have been much, much worse given the coolish August weather.


1) We Continue To Track Toward 3.4 Tcfe With 2 Months Left In The Storage Season. The following table takes injections over the last 4 and 10 year periods (max, min, and average) and adds an extra Bcfgpd for increased Supply (Net change in available gas or the difference between how much production has increased vs last year and the how much imports have fallen vs last year).

2) Winter, As Always Will Be Important. Each year it seems to come down to winter weather as to the next year's gas price level. This year that will be true again At present a colder than normal winter is expected.

Here are the week's graphs:


Stocks We Care About Today

Cubic Provides Haynesville Update: I have not talked about them in awhile but they are out with news and the stock has been clobbered back from its highs. More on this in comments.


Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:  Goldman monkeys with ratings as they remove several E&P and service names from the conviction buy list and replace them with others. (RIG) and (DVN) move onto the list, (HAL), (EOG), and (COP) come off. (BBG) cut to a sell (Rockies gas player which makes sense when you look at realizations out there). UBS ups (EOG) to Buy. (VRNM) started at Buy at Lazard with $6 target (this is that BP supported cellulosic ethanol company).




142 Responses to “T.G.I.F. + Inventory Slide Shows – Advanced Copy”

  1. 1
    crysball Says:

    Excellent Graphs and analysis.
    Have you eve looked at the relationship [covariance or coefficient of correlation] between US Nat Gas storage supply above or below average (say 5 year) as it relates to Nat Gas Price above or below average(again say 5 years).

    It would be possible to remove out the weather influence by normalizing the storage numbers by CDD or HDD.

    This would then measure the effect of changes in storage on Pricing [back to Suzy Sachs Queing theory……..At or near capacity in any system small changes in available supply cause large swings in price.]

    I no longer have access to the statistical/math software to do this, but such an analysis would perhaps yield some very interesting results to subscribers.

  2. 2
    crysball Says:

    P.S It would also be possible to do the reverse [normalize the supply variation and then look at what effect weather variation [CDD & HDD] have..

    Intuitively, it would seem a ‘Slam Dunk’…i.e. a cold winter and low [relative] to average supply = high prices……..however the dynamics may not so simple, when you factor in expectations……like anticipated excess supply coming from unconventional plays.

  3. 3
    Sambone Says:

    NEW DELHI, Sept 5 (Reuters) – State-run Coal India Ltd will
    debut as a coal importer this fiscal year and plans to tap world
    markets for 4 million tonnes to fuel small units and power
    producers facing shortages, its chairman said on Friday.
    Coal shortages currently cost India two percent of its
    installed power generation capacity, Power Secretary Anil Razdan
    said, adding the country was likely to import at least 15 million
    tonnes in the financial year to end-March for power generation in
    addition to the Coal India purchases.
    State-run firm National Thermal Power Corp NTPC.BO, a
    regular player in overseas markets, is expected to meet more than
    half of that figure, importing more than 8 million tonnes.
    “This is uncharted waters for us. We have not imported a
    single tonne of coal (so far),” Coal India’s chairman, Partha
    Bhattacharyya, told reporters on the sidelines of a coal
    conference in the Indian capital.
    Coal-fired plants account for 65 percent of India’s power
    generation capacity of 145.6 gigawatts, which lagged demand in
    Asia’s third-largest economy by nearly 16 percent in July.
    India’s coal demand is expected to rise to 731 million tonnes
    by March 2012, while domestic production will meet only 680
    million tonnes of that figure, according to government estimates.
    Coal India plans to begin importing coal after firming up
    contracts with local buyers.
    “It has to be based on confirmed demand. People should be
    ready to pay that price,” Bhattacharyya said.
    He had earlier said his firm was looking for exploration
    opportunities in Mozambique, South Africa and Malawi.
    India’s total coal imports have grown rapidly over the past
    three years from a few million tonnes to a projected 50 million
    tonnes for 2009. About 20-25 percent has been coming from South
    Africa and the bulk of the remainder from Indonesia.
    Coal India has a joint venture with power utility NTPC Ltd,
    Steel Authority of India SAIL.BO, NMDC Ltd, Rashtriya Ispat
    Nigam Ltd to buy coal assets abroad.
    (Reporting by Rakesh Sharma and C.J. Kuncheria, Writing by
    Nidhi Verma, Editing by Mark Williams)

    Fri Sep 5 12:57:14 2008 -GMT

  4. 4
    Sambone Says:

    By Nick Heath

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures traded more than $2 lower in early
    European trade Friday on hardening fears that oil demand will suffer amid a
    slowing in global economic growth.
    Further strength in the dollar against most major currencies helped Nymex
    light, sweet crude prices descend towards their weeks low, with markets
    reasoning that the spread of economic malaise to Europe and beyond is weakening
    other currencies relative to the dollar.
    And while tropical storm activity and next week’s OPEC meeting could offer
    some support ahead of the weekend, an increasingly gloomy economic picture
    threatens to push prices lower still, analysts said.
    “Further downside remains possible until the recent wave of weak U.S. oil
    demand data and deep macroeconomic pessimism runs its course,” analysts at
    Barclays Capital said.
    At 1233 GMT, the front-month October Brent contract on London’s ICE futures
    exchange was down $1.50 at $104.80 a barrel.
    The front-month October light, sweet, crude contract on the New York
    Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.49 lower at $106.40 a barrel.
    The ICE’s gasoil contract for September delivery was down $14.00 at $958.75 a
    metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for October delivery was down 399 points at
    270.05 cents a gallon.
    While latest U.S. Department of Inventory data out Thursday was largely
    glossed over – the data period concerned preceded the peak of the widespread
    platform evacuations and refinery shutdowns prompted by Hurricane Gustav –
    readings nonetheless consolidated a trend of declining U.S consumption amid
    high prices and economic slowdown. The data revealed last week’s gasoline
    demand was down 1.6% and total oil demand down 3.5% from last year.
    Oil prices continued to sell off Friday on signs that economic woes similar to
    those in the U.S. are spreading, with growth jitters sending Asian and European
    equity markets sharply lower, following on from a 3% drop in the Dow Jones
    Industrial Average. The U.S. dollar prevailed against most major currencies
    Friday, with the euro slumping to $1.4196 its lowest level this year.
    “U.S. dollar strength is driving this,” a London-based oil trader said. “The
    feeling is that the eurozone is behind the U.S in the cycle, therefore it’s
    going to be weaker, hence the dollar’s strength.”
    As the dollar climbed, Nymex light, sweet crude dropped to an intraday low of
    $105.76 a barrel Friday, just above a five-month low of $105.46 a barrel set
    Sept. 2.
    Traders across the financial markets were looking ahead to latest U.S.
    Non-Farm Payrolls Data due 1235GMT Friday for further indications on the health
    of the U.S. economy.
    Having hurdled Thursday’s inventory data, next Tuesday’s meeting of
    Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries’ ministers in Vienna attracted
    closer scrutiny Friday. While a production rollover is widely anticipated, any
    further fall in prices amid signs of slowing demand could prompt ministers to
    look closer at production cuts.
    “Further price declines from here will increase the odds of a modest cut, and
    in this respect, we would suggest that the cutoff point before the cartel is
    galvanized into some kind of action, will be the $100 mark,” said Edward Meir,
    analyst at MF Global in New York. “Given how close we are to that level, we
    suspect the cartel – even if it stands pat – will nevertheless announce that it
    will reserve the option to reduce quotas prior to its next meeting if prices
    continue to fall.”
    While Hurricane Gustav – which churned through the Gulf of Mexico’s oil
    production region before making landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast’s refining
    heartland – was unable to elicit a strong crude price response, analysts
    suggested Friday that tropical storm activity could still help put a floor
    under crude prices as the week draws to a close.
    Hurricane Ike – downgraded to a category three hurricane Friday – is of
    immediate concern although track projections are unclear on whether it poses a
    threat to Gulf of Mexico infrastructure. Latest forecasts from the U.S.
    National Hurricane Center suggest Ike will eventually veer northwest towards
    the southern tip of Florida. Tropical Storm Hanna looks increasingly likely to
    avoid the Gulf, however.
    “While the dollar is still having a strong influence on prices… we feel that
    it will take a hurricane to come to the bulls’ rescue,” said Glen Ward, broker
    at ODL securities in London. “We have Ike and Hanna keenly being tracked by
    traders and they might prove just enough threat to stop fresh shorts entering
    before the weekend.”
    Gustav’s apparent benign impact on infrastructure helped prices swing lower
    this week. Oil companies continue to return personnel to facilities, but more
    than 95% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production remained shut-in Thursday,
    according to the latest situation report from the U.S. Department of Energy. Of
    the refineries that were in the path of Gustav 12 are still shut down – mostly
    due to problems securing electricity supply – sidelining just over 2.4 million
    barrels a day of refining capacity, the DOE said.
    -By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires
    Dow Jones Newswires
    09-05-08 0837ET

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Crysball – Let me get back to you a little later in the day on that.

  6. 6
    tater Says:

    I put a better effort into TSO last night. Charts at the link:


  7. 7
    1520sbroad Says:

    Great charts today and earlier this week.

    So refreshing to see data presented without the media or analyst spin.

  8. 8
    1520sbroad Says:

    #7 – both Z and tater.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Thanks 1520, I figure the world needs a little spin correction from time to time, lol.

    Interesting pop in Gold.

    Goldman Sachs moving ratings all over the place (see bottom of post). Did anyone see if they have amended their oil price deck or language regarding the $149 by year end target?

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Tater – muchas gracias for the comments and charts on TSO! (and not just because you happen to agree with me, lol).

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    RIG added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman… nobody listening anymore.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    NBR is UO nearly 2% on a Goldman cut from Buy to Neutral.

  13. 13
    reefguy Says:

    IOC- Elk #4 tests 105 MMCFPD

  14. 14
    VTZ Says:

    Z- I’m looking at a company and they tested a well with an 2 week+ test rate of 800 mcf/day from a single vertical frac. Is this a good rate from a single frac? Comparable to… ?

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Reef – saw that, they say it is a record flow rate for a well in papua new guinea. Stock up 30 cents. Unreal.

    Normally I am a not a big fan of plagiarism but I was sent Tudor Pickering’s piece a minute ago and could not agree more with their opening line.

    Uncle. Mercy. Enough. Stop. No Mas.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    VTZ – depends on the play. It would be towards the low end of the vert Haynesville wells but great in say Illinois. Where’s it at?

  17. 17
    reefguy Says:

    vtz- what zone? Do you have daily rates, pressures, fluid recovery data?

  18. 18
    VTZ Says:

    Utica in Quebec… they have another pay zone below in the Trenton zone and then they are goign to test the Lorraine shale above the Utica which is up to 6000 ft thick. Utica is 300-1000 feet.


    They re-entered their Trenton well and recompleted it in the Utica Zone. That’s all the info I have but I could ask IR… I talk to them lots. I have shares in Questerre.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    DUG chart breaking out…kind of says it all about the groups right now.

  20. 20
    VTZ Says:

    Forest oil and Talisman are the big boys in the play.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    VTZ – just off the cuff that sounds light for an IP but I am more accustomed to looking at wells out of the Trenton/Blackriver in the states and its been a long time since I looked at what TLM was doing up there so its probably an insufficient bit of knowledge on my part to judge them by. In other words I don’t know what that should look like in Quebec but it will be judged by the surrounding tests. If you can get more data we can tear into it a little more. You realize of course that finding more gas is now deemed a bad thing, right?

  22. 22
    VTZ Says:

    Yeah I know… I’m just hoping their NYMEX+1 pricing shuts in some other production first, heh.

    I can find the Trenton rate as well. The Utica zone is shallower than Barnett and the Larraine is even above that, but I’ll look into everything and let you know.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Ike could go many places.


  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Dollar down, oil down. Thinking on the Street seems to be (and I’m hearing and reading this):

    1) hurricanes need to put up or shut up. Agreed
    2) OPEC won’t cut with prices above $100. I think they will talk quotas and that their $100 is our WTI = $103. The OPEC basket is lower than WTI by a $3 to $4 per barrel. The basket closed last night at $103.64
    3) Earnings estimates are completely unreliable. Don’t necessarily agree as hedges will begin to matter more and more and their has been little in the way of slow down by the service companies. I dare anyone to find it in the rig counts.
    4) Take no action until E&P firms cut budgets. How can you argue with that.
    5) Sell winners to pay for losers.

  25. 25
    isleworth Says:

    Z – VLO getting hit today over 3%, as oil continues south. Any thoughts?

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Isle – re VLO. Two thoughts.

    1) Yes, gasoline taking a dive, down 1.8% vs oil’s dip of 1.2% plus the move in the broad market. Gasoline is getting tweaked by the path fluctuations of Hurricane Ike. I think the storm is too far away to tell yet as do the spaghetti models.
    2) I need to open a hot dog stand until this blows over. Sheesh. Sort of glad I have the DUG calls on again but its pretty thin solace compared to the thumping on everything else.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: Out DUG September $40 calls for $3.40, up 31%.

  28. 28
    tater Says:

    Hey, my first biz was a hot dog stand. You’d be surprised how many times you can re-heat those little guys! (Drunken dope smokin employees kept dropping it off the trailer though, good thing they’re made of steel). Thanks for the nice comments 1520, Z.

  29. 29
    Garyinhou Says:

    Too bad there isn’t a sector of the economy that is doing well, good cash flow, real busy, lots of manufacturing going on, with zero unemployment.

  30. 30
    BeWater Says:

    I see where HK ceo sold about 250k shares, about 10% of his holdings. Does this remove ‘for sale sign’ at least near term?

    If this thing breaks 26 or so the long term chart is going to start looking like a dot com.

  31. 31
    Dman Says:

    Goldman upgraded NBR when it was around $50 after it moved up steadily from $26. Now the downgrade at $32. Can’t wait for the next installment.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Gary – very funny.

  33. 33
    Popeye Says:

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its U.S. natural gas price forecast for 2009 by 20 percent because of lower demand from power plants and cooler summer weather.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Be Water: Here are my thoughts on Floyd’s sale. They said a couple of months ago they were looking to grow the business and not sell just yet.

    HK’s CEO Floyd Wilson Selling Shares. Why I don’t think it is a sell signal but something to watch.

    First, thoughts on insider transactions:

    1. CEO’s and other executives sell their own stock for a variety of reasons: diversification and new or additional house being chief among them. Approaching retirement, illness, mistress, yachts, and approaching bad news for the stock fall further down the reason list.
    2. CEO’s and other executives buy their own stock chiefly for two reasons: either they think it is going to go up or they want you to think it is going to go up.
    3. In looking at insider selling key considerations I look at are as follows:
    1. How much was sold as a percentage of holdings. If they sell out, especially top management this is obviously a red flag. As a general rule, the larger the company, the more I get uncomfortable with large percentage transactions by top management but I don’t have a strict level since it depends on how people are paid (cash vs stock).
    2. What was paid for those shares or what level were they acquired at.
    3. Is the sale part of a planned diversification program or 10b5-1 program?
    4. Percentage of compensation from shares vs cash. If they are paid entirely in shares than you should expect to see more in share sales.
    5. Is there a continual outflow with no purchases or is the sale more one-time in nature.
    6. Is it just one member of management or is everyone jumping ship?
    7. What has the stock been doing and what is the current and long term business outlook?

    Looking at Floyd’s Sale:

    1. Reason for the sale – unknown so no help with #1 above.
    2. How much was sold: 250,000 shares for proceeds of $8.9 mm. This does not appear to be part of a planned program sale.
    3. How much does he still hold: 2.6 mm shares which at Friday’s close of $34.61 equals $90 million.
    4. So he sold 9% of his holdings from the start to the end of last week.
    5. Is there a pattern of selling? No, the last transaction was a purchase made back in March of 2007. He has not sold shares in the last 2 years.
    6. How’s he get paid. $600,000 salary + $1 mm bonus last year plus 142,000 restricted shares and 53,000 stock options. So its a nice living but not world beater. His net worth would appear to be tied up in the shares.
    7. What are the other members of management doing? Almost entirely buying shares.
    8. As to what the stock has been doing, its off its recent highs with the group but by no means tanking and is up strong for the last 52 week period. The business outlook is strong and the stock stands at the forefront of a new large shale play that should help ensure double digit unit volume growth and a large prospect inventory for the next several years. In conclusion I’d bet he’s diversifying his holdings and I’d say he is still quite aligned with shareholders.
    9. From a practical standpoint, the filings for sales from the 27th, 28th, and 29th hit the SEC website on the 29th and the market probably did not notice them so their may be a negative reaction when the market opens on Tuesday but I would think it would be relatively short lived.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Dman – yep, GS is not ruling the roost right now.

    Popeye – was that for 2009 or 2008? Also, did they say anything about their oil number…not that it really matters.

  36. 36
    crysball Says:

    new 11AM update on Crown Weather has Ike’s Stormtrack going into GOM , and missing S. Florida.


  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Thanks – Crys. If I were a daytrader I’d probably take UNG or DIG calls here.

  38. 38
    Popeye Says:


  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Ike projected path:

    Its pretty far out to say this is close to accurate and the market is not giving it any credit at all right now.

    A thought on gas prices and E&P names in the area. A series of shut ins will reduce the amount of gas put in storage. Combine that with fear of a cold winter and you could get a bounce. For names that have a high degree or all their production coming from the regions, costs will be a big number for the quarter. CPE, EPL, SGY etc all to see fat lease operating expense if they keep having to pull people off and on the platforms. Also, timing delays on project startups for them could cause misses in production beyond storm related shut in losses. Will do a little work towards this end.

    Re Goldman, I agree with them on BBG, that is going to suffer in this gas price environment.

  40. 40
    Bleemus Says:

    can someone remind me of that symbol that is a dry shipper trading in the teens… pays huge dividend?

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    OCNF; 18% yield

  42. 42
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Star Bulk (SBLK)

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    sorry, SBLK not in the teens, but pays 15.6&

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Bird, do you watch the coals? Talk about a thumping.

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    yes. made $ shorting MEE in 2006 but missed going long in 2007. of course, MEE would not be my first choice for a long position in coal.

    didn’t short it this time around b/c following coal is a lot more complicated than it used to be. worth it, but can’t just extend an e&p macro-view to the coal sector. there is a rising and falling tide of boats in energy, but coal has it’s own issues and catalysts.

    long answer. bottom line = not up to speed… but want to be at some point. coal and nat gas = the US’s strength in energy. funny thing, the greenies have no problem buying wood-burning fireplaces to heat their vermont homes, but turn out in droves to protest any addition/expansion to coal plants. running the dirtiest coal plant is magnitutes “cleaner” than lighting your wood-burning fireplace.

    perceptions create reality, tho.

  46. 46
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (what’s a “magnitute”? ha)

  47. 47
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    the coal stocks where hedge fund darlings. there is gonna be a slew of redemptions for sept 30th. we talked about this in august… now all these lovable darlings are being sent packing. ANR, ACI, PCX, WLT are all being kicked to the curb after the PMs got back from their august vacations.

  48. 48
    ram Says:

    Re #24, Item 5: Some stocks are at, or near yearly lows. There is a point where that doesnot apply and it appears big money is shying away from energy/commodity stocks. It appears the energy stocks could become the losers in the near future.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Hear ya kicked to the curb…like SLB at $84…nobody believes the estimates for the service guys with oil down here.

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    yep. SLB is one of the darlin’s too.

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    frankly, all else equal, we just might see a mrkt bounce after sept 20th or so. HFs will be largely done selling and should leave some pretty attractive pickings behind for the long-term value guys.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Saw a number of larger E&P’s go briefly green, then back to red, its like a shooting gallery.

    Ram – take a look at the weekly chart of XNG. At 550 it is still up from a year ago. This is not as much a flush on fundamentals as it is of necessity and of thinking the up trade is over re oil and the dollar.

  53. 53
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    sorry to keep posting… but it’s better than watching the mrkt.

    tell me again why SD is back to it’s IPO price of almost a yr ago? it’s one that should benefit from a post-sept 20th bounce, i would think.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Here ya on 51 Bird. I know I don’t want to be short on Mondays either as consolidation and capex cuts are coming.

  55. 55
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    at some point XOM is going to follow BP back to north america.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Bird – search me. The $40 calls I wrote the other day will expire worthless which is little solace. Plan to hold for the long long term there. You know people said they didn’t like the well where they didn’t find the Cab1 (I think it was on the west side) and the stock spiraled. Rockies gas probably perceived to be hurting them as well.

    Please keep talking. You’re keeping me awake plus there are things to be studied even during this.

    Headfake rally on E&P group started.

    OPEC should cut production as they have said already they see a massive build in inventories at present production levels over the winter. Maybe they are scare enough of green policies in the U.S. from Obama that they are willing to dip oil to help a McCain ticket (not that I think that will work) but they have done it before (2006 mid terms). Anyway, a cut and Ike in the Gulf would make for an interesting market next week.

    XOM has got to do something. Their “signed” deals just keep getting worse and the NOC’s clench more power.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Is Tom Ward still restricted from buying more stock?

  58. 58
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    XOM…. just wait until their accountants (finally) make them write down their reserves, based on the fact that oil ain’t going back to $45 and “production taxes” jump to 100% somewhere around there.

    that day is coming. if XOM is smart (which they are, except for their snobbery bias against exploring in their own backyard), then they will have accumulated some cheap domestic production by that day.

  59. 59
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    don’t know. i’ll ask.

  60. 60
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    sorry. my easy contact at SD is out today. don’t blame him.

  61. 61
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SD. a number of the top holders are HFs that don’t have traditionally strong e&p backgrounds, fwiw. will probably see that a lot of them headed for the door this quarter.

    short-term investing is hardly “investing” at all.

  62. 62
    md Says:

    todays post- agreed on Distillate exports driving the volumes. I was hoping that you would make reference to the monthly supply report on gasoline demand showing 4.5% decrease June YTD as this seems to be more the trend. Plus,The weekly numbers as you know are based on preliminary current numbers vs. LY adjusted numbers.

    Traders will try to drive price of oil down to below OPEC threshold so they can ride it up to $149 all over again after OPEC cuts production on lower prices.

    Refiners seems to be a good short term trade over next weeks numbers. Sentiment will likely change by Tuesday. What would be your best bet. TSO VLO FTO

  63. 63
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    credit mrkt getting better, after blowing out this morning. that is what is pulling stocks up, imho.

  64. 64
    md Says:

    I should be more precise
    June YOY Gasoline DN 4.6%
    May YOY DN 2.4%
    June YTD DN 2%
    So 4.6% decrease was only for month of June.

  65. 65
    mahout Says:


    Thanks much for the work on TSO. Taking it to heart. Sure looks like it wants to begin a nice rise and we know why fundamentally, but that loud crashing background noise from fund liquidations keeps shattering my confidence.

    Somebody hep me: When are these fund liquidations going to end! I know BOPRC says after Sept. 20 or so, and my thanks for that, but what is to prevent another one going south after that? I think this has been our major problem all along. It’s very frustrating. Anyone else have any idea when the fund liquidations will be over?

  66. 66
    antrimshale74 Says:

    The dollar is really picking up steam this afternoon. Look how gold and the Euro have really backed off. This is more added steam for selling oil down today.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Had to take a call.

    Thanks for checking re SD Bird.

    MD – its my weekly review of weekly numbers so I did not reference the monthlies, I would point out that you’re looking at some pretty trailing evidence (June) in a much higher gas price enviro. and that the report (the weekly) is showing up gasoline production. I agree the weekly has overstated in the past. It has also done the opposite from time to time and I think the current situation is improvement. Also, its a study of relativity to past weekly numbers. To me that’s pretty important. As to the monthly numbers if you look at the trend the weeklies are following that same bell curve with lower YoY consumption back in June and in July.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Rumor Watch: Hearing the Discovery pipeline has 3 leaks due to Gustav and will be out of service for 60 to 90 days for repairs. This is a 0.6 Bcfgpd line that was running at about half capacity prior to the storm. Not that huge a deal by itself (about 1.2% of U.S. supply at full charge) but it may be an indicator that all is not well in pipeline land.

  69. 69
    Bleemus Says:

    RE: #41


  70. 70
    zman Says:

    MD: those would be my picks. TSO and FTO have the benefit of not being along the Gulf Coast too.

  71. 71
    Sambone Says:

    By David Bird

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Until the Capline crude oil pipeline from the Gulf Coast
    to the Midwest becomes fully operational and normal offshore oil output
    resumes, the possibility of further requests for oil loans from the
    government’s emergency stockpile is unclear, an Energy Department official said
    David Johnson, deputy assistant secretary for petroleum reserves, said issues
    surrounding Marathon Corp.’s (MRO) request for loans of crude oil from the
    Strategic Petroleum Reserve can’t be cleared up until Capline issues are
    DOE said late Wednesday that Marathon has requested oil from the SPR for its
    Catlettsburg, Ky., and Robinson, Ill., refineries, but the specific amount had
    yet to be determined. Johnson said that to meet Marathon’s request, the SPR
    crude would need to flow through the 1.2-million barrels-a-day-capacity
    Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), operator of the 632-mile pipeline that originates at
    St. James, La., and ends in Patoka, Ill., said late Thursday it began moving
    oil through the system from Liberty, Miss., to the terminus in Illinois and
    plans to restart the remaining parts of the line in Louisiana “over the weekend
    using a combination of portable generators and local utility power as it comes
    “We expect to be running in sync with other systems that feed into Capline as
    they come online,” Shell said.
    Johnson said that as Capline restarts and as offshore crude oil production
    resumes, refiners’ potential needs for SPR crude will become clearer. He said
    the relatively little interest shown so far by refiners in SPR crude loans
    shouldn’t be taken as a signal that more requests won’t be filed. As of 12:30
    p.m. EDT Thursday, the government said 95.2% of Gulf oil output, or about 1.24
    million barrels of a day of crude, was still shut in.
    The fluidity of the situation, as refineries, pipelines and other
    infrastructure gradually return to operation, was highlighted earlier in the
    week when Citgo Petroleum requested and received approval for an SPR crude loan
    of 250,000 barrels for its Lake Charles, La., refinery. But Citgo withdrew the
    request within a day as a vital waterway to the refinery, the Calcasieu ship
    channel, was partially reopened.
    The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which handles about 10% of total U.S. crude
    oil imports, began operating at reduced rates early Friday after shutting down
    in advance of Hurricane Gustav a week ago.
    Latest Energy Information Administration data for June show that Marathon, the
    nation’s fifth-largest refiner, accounted for about 5.4% of total U.S., imports
    in the month, or about 538,000 barrels a day, of 9.994 million barrels a day.
    Marathon shipped from Morgan City, La., to its 226,000-barrels-a-day
    Catlettsburg, Ky., refinery, 65,000 barrels a day of crude in the month, the
    data show. Of that total, 50,000 barrels a day was medium-grade sour crude from
    Saudi Arabia, with a sulfur content ranging from 1.87% to 2.54% and API gravity
    range of 32.09 to 32.5 degrees.
    For the 204,000-barrels-a-day Robinson, Ill., refinery, Marathon shipped from
    the Gulf about 43,500 barrels a day of crude in June. The oil was a mixture of
    light, sweet from the U.K. (16,867 barrels a day), with a 0.81% sulfur content
    and an API gravity of 36.54 degrees, and low-sulfur Angolan sweet crude (16,567
    barrels a day), with a 0.36% sulfur content and an API gravity of 33.4 degrees.
    The remainder of the June imports for Robinson was 10,100 barrels a day of
    Saudi crude, with a 1.82% sulfur content and an API gravity of 32.97 degrees,
    the EIA data show.

    -By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires
    Dow Jones Newswires
    09-05-08 1241ET

  72. 72
    Sambone Says:

    Uncle Phil – Yesterday


  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Note the amount of crude still down is 95%…by now I would have thought that number would be better.

    Power continues to be a problem for the refiners and for the pipeline companies (compression).

  74. 74
    tater Says:

    No problem mahout. It’s a tough market. I still think a break above 18.80 is a buy signal, so there is no hurry to play as the reward from there could be pretty nice.

  75. 75
    apbd Says:

    I HATE RED! I’d rather look at Sarah Palin. Sam, give us a quote. Close the market. Start the weekend. Away with this RED.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Sam – 72 = brilliant.

    MD – I will try to remember to post a weekly demand overlaid with monthly data going back aways this weekend. First weekend of soccer for the season so no promises, lol.

  77. 77
    Sambone Says:

    By Stephen Cox, CMT

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Three selected oil stocks are uniformly weak on the
    charts, which perhaps is to be expected, given the slide in crude-oil futures
    prices since early July.
    It’s notable that all three stocks are approaching potential bottoms as of
    this writing, but in a couple of instances those potential bottoms are
    technical breakdown levels.
    In other words, trading below supports would be the signals for long-term
    For example, shares of BP PLC (BP) are trading around $53.19, which is the
    current low for the downtrend from the November 2007 high of $79.77. They’re
    targeting a potential bottom at $51.59. A renewed uptrend on the daily chart
    wouldn’t be in place unless shares reversed to the upside and took out $58.13
    A move below $51.59 would be going for $49.10, which is a technical breakdown
    point for a nearly 26-year uptrend. A confirmed breakout would point shares
    down to $45.09, or to $20.93 in case of a strong downtrend.

    Royal Dutch Shell Game

    Find the uptrend in shares of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA). Truthfully, there
    isn’t one now.
    Shares peaked last May at $88.73, which is the current high for a nearly
    20-year uptrend. But they’re trading as of this writing near the low of a
    corrective downtrend, $61.47, recorded earlier Friday. Evidently, shares are
    going for $60.11-$58.74 support, which is a potential bottom. In any case, a
    move above $65.69 would begin an uptrend on the daily chart. In that case,
    traders could reasonably expect an initial move up to $69.00.
    The risk for the long-term bulls would be decisive trading below $58.74. That
    development would signal the breakdown of that 20-year uptrend, and an initial
    downtrend to $51.81. Extended lower trading would be targeting $30.12.

    Exxon Mobil Looks Best Of Three

    The strongest performer of the three selected shares is Exxon Mobil Corp.
    (XOM). Its shares are trading near $75, and so are well above a long-term
    technical breakdown point at $45.91. Even so, shares are trading practically at
    a downtrend low of $74.69, and there’s evidently more room on the downside.
    Current trading is technically weak below $81.74-$83.63 resistance. Evidently
    they’re targeting the $69.25-$62.27 support band, which may contain an
    important low.
    For now, the nearest stop is $76.65.

    (Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones

    Dow Jones Newswires
    09-05-08 1300ET

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Feeling a little tradey here.

  79. 79
    Bleemus Says:

    Looking at all the models none show it making it the way to oil/gas land. All show some sort of hook to the north.


    After loading one of the models click the FWD button to animate.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Did you see these?


  81. 81
    md Says:

    #76 A deal

    NAtional Post- Enbridge to lift Force Majeuere on 2 GOM pipelines – UTOS and 1.12 BCFPD Sitngray. They operate 6 pipeline systems in the GOM.

  82. 82
    1520sbroad Says:

    i had a job at the chicago board of trade as a clerk one summer when i was in college – on slow fridays toward the end of the summer (typically when the market was down and everyone was frustrated) the traders would play a game called “the bag” that wound up as the bonus system for the summer clerks. Today reminds me of the proper set up for this game – at least in the energy names.

    A trader would take a paper bag and put some money in it, the bag would get passed around the particular pit and all the traders had a chance to put money in the bag. When the bag made it all the way up and down the pit it would get passed to the pit clerk who would then secretively count the money that wound up in the bag. The total was written down and known only to the one pit clerk. Then “bids” would be assembled secretly as each trader that had put money in the bag wrote down how much money they thought was in the bag. (At this point there was a lot of jostling, yelling, pushing, as all the traders would try and see how much everyone else was writing down.) All the bids would then be given to the pit clerk who would review and determine which trader had guessed the closest to the amount in the bag. The entire contents of the bag would be given to that trader and then that trader would give the money to his clerk as their summer bonus. Traders would occasionally try to fix the game by stuffing the bag with a bunch of money and then guessing close to their artificially large number. If it had been a good summer then there would be a couple rounds of the bag until the summer clerks all went home with something.

  83. 83
    md Says:

    How much would you knock off of NG injection for the coming week.
    Would you say that this week would have been 80 BCF based on same CDD before Gustav. When the street considers that Gustav after effects may linger the 3.4 TCF may look like a 3.2. Not an oversupply scenario just yet.

  84. 84
    mahout Says:


    Against a sea of red, IOC has managed a green of $.80 (2.8%) on the news. Better than nothing.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    I’d guess you lose 30 to 40 Bcf of injections but not keeping demand the same either. That’s roughly 7 Bcfgpd x 7 days less some weak demand in the South which got rained on and was pretty cool in places all week.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Mahout – true.

    The more impressive name is NFX with 2 whole days of up.

    1520. I think I was the clerk in that scenario once and the boss kept the bonus, lol.

  87. 87
    1520sbroad Says:

    True – i’ve been on the short end more than once. All part of the process.

  88. 88
    Dman Says:

    #80: spaghetti chart of Ike looks like some kind of backward swimming octopus, coming to wrap its tentacles around some rigs.

    OK, too much caffeine again.

    NFX decline has been nutty, as per your comment a few days ago, i.e. they are valued as if they have no shales and all hurricane damaged GOM. So it oughta be going up!

    Speaking of nutty, NOV at 10 x ’09 and RIG at 7.3.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Nothing in oil or gasoline prices for this.


    or taking the opposite view, down $2 on oil and 6 cents on gasoline does incorporate and Ike strike.

    I think PR’s on curtailments are being drawn up. Monday would be a good day to say, “We’re showing some capital discipline and easing activity levels to forestall service inflation in this time of easing commodity prices. A month ago, we thought this was a minor disturbance in the futures market but due to exaggerated views of domestic production on the part of market participant have resulted in several gas markets falling into marginal economic status. We see no reason to continue to advance volumes into this sort of environment in a growth for the sake of growth and not growth for the sake of return fashion, blah, blah, blah…”

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    DUG Retreating. May play it and some DIG. If that just gives you a headache it means I think we will be very volatile next week and in both directions. I think early week may see a pop on storm fear and group news. Late week may get disappointed by OPEC.

  91. 91
    Dman Says:

    Z – not following your lines 1-3 in #89. Can you spell it out a tad?

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Some refiners going green: TSO, FTO.

    Hanful of E&P too. HK thinking about it.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Dman – sure, just saying either Ike is in peoples thoughts as a possible gulf strike and that only gets you oil down 2 instead of oil even lower or it is not in their thoughts at all in which case forecasts that shift it to the west and into the Gulf may cause a rally in crude and gasoline. Watching the refiners closely and they started to recover the groups loss on the day with the latest revision to the forecast that hooked it into the Gulf.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Dman, sorry but I think I need one of those “I want to believe” posters for my office regarding a recovery in prices.

  95. 95
    ram Says:

    Emphatically agree with #94.

  96. 96
    VTZ Says:

    Is some of this based on Ike again? I am leaning to yes?

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: CHK September $45 Calls for a bounce next week. Small trade for $1.60. Group feeling well oversold and I’m looking for capital budget cuts in the near term from some players as some regional gas plays turn marginally economic.

  98. 98
    Dman Says:

    Cramer sez today is the last day that hedgies can “sell in bulk” to return money to investors.

  99. 99
    ram Says:

    You would think that OII at 52WK lows would be ripe for a turn as the hurricanes line up in a “landing pattern” towards the GOM.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Dman – hmmm, not sure I understand what calendar he is using to determine that. Must be based on a quarterly redemption date.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Not while I’m long so ram.

  102. 102
    Dman Says:

    Z – #100, well as it happens, he explained it all in great detail by saying that “he knows this” and if we want to know how, he refers us to his “Street Addict” book.

    I declined his generous offer for me to buy his book, but I’m prepared to believe that he knows the hedgie calendar & yes he is clearly talking about redemptions.

  103. 103
    Dman Says:

    Z – what would it take for you to warm up to NBR here? It’s got everything going for it, up to and including a sell (well, OK, “neutral”) from GS.

  104. 104
    Dman Says:

    Correction to the Q in #103: Nevermind the “here”, but just “what would it take for you to warm up to NBR”

  105. 105
    ram Says:

    Re OII: Aren’t there mandatory inspections before platforms and pipelines can go back online? It seems like OII will gain revenue this quarter regardless of a massive strike in the GOM.

  106. 106
    md Says:

    present trajectory of Ike looks like Hurr winds would be going into Al. How much harm could that do to the O&G in GOM.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    Dman – re 104. Time. Sentiment is so bad fundies don’t matter. Rig counts need to stay high as well and day rates need to be flat. So far so good on the last 2 but the Street just sees the rig count as another bubble yet to pop.

    Ram – I think if there is an obvious problem they can get called in, otherwise the operators do a lot of it themselves.

  108. 108
    tater Says:

    Left for a bit. Does my screen really show oil down and CLR up? Can’t be right, it’s a proxy for oil. It can’t possibly trade as a company with fundamentals. I’m ruined.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Alabama = None.

  110. 110
    md Says:

    If it continues this way would the rigs be shut down again and how many hours before

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    md – that’s a complete judgment call on the part of the operators. They’ll leave themselves enough time to get people out safely moving from east to west. If it goes Gulf even angle at Alabama it should support prices until the turn north is certain. Then the hangover will again be worse than the short party I’d bet.

  112. 112
    ram Says:

    Tater – Did you link your charts to this website?

  113. 113
    tater Says:

    ram, I don’t understand. So I guess no.

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Ram – No, I didn’t do it yet. Tater, if you will give me a good start page link I will add it to the blogroll at upper right.

  115. 115
    md Says:

    Anything less than a CAT 1 considered cause for shutdown for outlying areas

  116. 116
    md Says:

    Well it’s a Buy Gustav get Ike free so it’s worth a shot. I just bought some TSO Sep 20 @ .50. A touch high but hope to get one of two by Wed.

  117. 117
    ram Says:

    Thanks ZMAN and TATER.

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    yes, they shutdown for tropical storms. If it grows there is no chance to chopper people out so you can’t take the chance. If its close, people come off.

  119. 119
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Sorry for beating a “dead horse”, but does each platform or pipeline have to be certified “safe and secure” before it can be back online? If so, can it only be deemed so by an approved individual?

  120. 120
    tater Says:

    Don’t mean to be overly ignorant (but I am). I am calling the page OilLogic and all I have is the link that I usually post (it is always the same page link):


    If there is more to it than that, you’re going to have to coach me up.

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    Ram – As I understand it, and please know that I could be wrong, the operators, guys like COP and APC, have company men who can do this. I think they file a report with the MMS and turn it back on once they are sure everything is sound. Don’t think in most cases a third party is needed. I do think OII may see a slight bump in revenues but the real $ would come from damage in deepwater which few people could take care of. If you look at their quarterly financials you can see that segment of their biz balloon post 2005 and now it has virtually gone away. Its pretty high margin work too as you can imagine that people want their stuff back onstream muey pronto.

  122. 122
    ram Says:

    Thanks ZMAN.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Tater – When I click that link it takes me to your TSO chart. From there can I see your other charts or are they gone?

  124. 124
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    could have been an entire year’s worth of performance in just SD’s swing today.

    this borders on “too much for sane people to take.” might try a new line of work. (“You want frys with that, sir?”)

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Ram – you are as always quite welcome and always ask. That’s on the fringe of my knowledge as I’m a finance guy and the closest I’ve come to that is a helicopter ride out to a N. Sea rig during a TLM dog and pony show. Good scotch, liked the Haggis too, but those guys need to do something about their weather.

  126. 126
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    note to self: next time TRA drops below it’s 200 day MA and nat gas prices are low, buy. TRA benefits from low nat gas prices and nice, midwest demand.

  127. 127
    tater Says:

    They are stored in another master group. I am only allowed to show one group at a time. It could be the master or a smaller one like today’s TSO focus. I just copy it over to my public page (which is the link).
    It is very hard to keep the master current. I would much prefer to just show a focussed group (it’s kind of an art-form so I equate it with leaving the bathroom door open, necessary and real important for me, but not really for sharing).
    It’s nice that you are considering linking to it, but I know it’s not some professional thing so far, so don’t worry about it if we put it off until a different day.

  128. 128
    Wyoming Says:

    Any one in Dallas want to golf in the oilman’s golf tounament on Monday morning? I have been invited on Cameron’s team and he has 2 more slots open up. Never know.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Bird – TRA, AGU, and POT.

    I used to track them and GRO (before I think it got killed by gas).

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    Tater – I will absolutely not put it off. Will be done a few after the close. Thanks. I’m going to call it Tater’s TA or Tater’s Ticker or whatever you’d like really.

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    Wyoming – You know, you should play with Dr. Beeper and myself. I mean, he’s been club champion for three years running and I’m no slouch myself.

  132. 132
    Wyoming Says:

    Caddyshack I. We must designate the original from the sequel piece of …

    “What we have here is failure to communicate”

  133. 133
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – POT and AGU are a little more of a mining project… TRA is straight nat gas converter. anyway, that’s how i think of ’em.

  134. 134
    tater Says:

    Tater’s TA sounds cool.
    Just an aside because it’s Friday. Take a look at AMGN, been playing in it all day. It is the definition of an island reversal possibly about to happen. Emphasis on possibly. But just look at that fat pig just hanging in the air like that.

  135. 135
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tater – lol. thanks for pointing out the AMGN technical interpretation of the chart. (great visual)

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    Tater’s TA added to link list at upper left. Here you can find information on everything from dead cat bounces to fat hanging pigs.

  137. 137
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z Just practicing my cut & paste http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/09/05/its-time-to-buy-energy.aspx

  138. 138
    tater Says:

    Pigs with wings. Thanks and everybody have a great weekend.

  139. 139
    mahout Says:


    If I read it right and am not asleep, dreaming:
    IOC was up 9.0% and NFX was up 4.1% today. I hope these are not sell signals.

    Mother Market may be giving us some green salve to put on our wounds (poor baby!)on Friday only to slug us into unconciousness next Monday. She likes to do stuff like that.

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    Mahout – no telling. This is one of my reasons not to be short on weekends.

    Cat 4 track into Gomex now. Probably changes over the weekend to a light breeze hitting New York instead but for now it makes the beer a little sweeter.


  141. 141
    mahout Says:

    I’m thinkin the same way only I would say, “Want ketchup on that milkshake, Dude?”

    Cool Hand Luke

    Have a great weekend everybody.

  142. 142
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bird – been awhile since I tracked ’em.

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