EIA Watch:
- The Gas Storage Report will come out at its regularly scheduled time of 10:30 am EST.
- The Oil Inventory Report will be released at the same time.
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch: added some CHK, sold half of the SD
- Commodity Watch with Inventory Report Previews
- Stocks We Care About Today - A little Bakken reference update
- Crack Spread Update - Moving Seasonal Higher
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch: The Wiki tab is updated.
- CHK - I've been slowly adding more CHK on weakness. Yesterday, I took the June $52.50 calls (the most near the money contract at the time) for $2.10. As the market reverse they traded up to big $2.95 at the close and though this was not taken as a day trade but to repair my ailing $60 call position I will likely punt them on further strength or weakness pre oil inventory numbers today (I don't see the EIA's natural gas report this morning having much impact on the stocks...read on).
- SD - Sold half of the July $55 Calls for $5.30, up 203%. SD has had a great run on the back of recent analyst conference comments which suggest better results on the eastern side of their West Texas Overthrust play and from stout insider buying. Yesterday there was a bit of a buying frenzy and though I took half the position off the table, I have little doubt that it will go higher (market and energy prices held constant) by expiration in July.
Commodity Watch:
Natural Gas: The July contract becomes the front month today and closed up $0.08 at $12 yesterday. This morning gas is trading up slightly.
My Number: 85-90 Bcf injection. Last week saw an injection of 85 Bcf and the year ago period saw 106 Bcf stuffed into storage.
- Weather:
- HDD's were in line with the prior week at 50,
- CDD's (Cooling Degree Days) were 28, up from 18 last week and 20 in the year ago week. EEI data however show generations was off from year ago levels.
- Imports: 8.1 Bcfgpd combined (LNG + Canadian pipes), down 3 Bcfgpd vs year ago levels.
- Exports: probably up 1 Bcfgpd, all due to higher demand from Mexico. We get an update (March 2008 numbers) from the EIA on Friday.
- Production: probably running about 5 to 6 Bcfgpd high to year ago levels (also updated Friday).
- Total Supply: up about 1 to 2 Bcfgpd.
Street Consensus: 84 Bcf injection.
ZComment: I saw one analyst comment that gas will only cave in once a comfortable string of 80+ injections occur. I would argue that several triple digit injections would be needed to really break gas down at this point plus a change to a cooler summer weather forecast the latest plus a reduction in the expectations for activity in the Atlantic hurricane season which officially begins June 1. As if on cue there is a tropical depression, albeit on the Pacific side, headed in the general direction of the Gulf of Mexico and though it will unlikely make it intact across Central America it will serve as a reminder to traders of what time of year it is.
Crude Oil: Reversed early losses to close up $2.18 yesterday at $131.03. This morning crude is trading down $1.00 to $1.50 before the release of inventory data on fear over contracting U.S. gasoline demand and a slightly stronger dollar.
- Nigeria Watch: MEND plans car bomb campaign to celebrate President Yar Adua's first anniversary in office. The phrase "Bad Day in Bosnia" may yet be replaced with "Nasty Night in Nigeria".
- PEMEX Bricks Production Target. Mexico's state oil company Pemex now expects to produce 2.9 mm bopd, down from prior expectations of 3.1 mm bopd. Doesn't sound like a big deal until you consider that Mexico's production will need to fall by 500,000 bopd from start to finish to achieve the 2.9 target. April production was already down to 2.77 mm bopd.
- Mastercard Points To Gasoline Demand Drop. Mastercard's survey of gasoline purchases pointed to a 5.5% drop in demand yesterday (before the market close). I doubt that same level of drop will be reflected today in the EIA's gasoline demand numbers.
EIA Inventory Expectations (from the Dow Jones Survey)
ZComment: Last week we saw a jump in utilization, normal for this time of year, as refiners ramp production in preparation for the summer driving season. Last week we did not see a commensurate increase in crude inputs to refineries but it should flow through this week. If we see no rebound in imports look for another big draw in crude. As to the reaction of oil from these levels to another big draw, I'd say higher. Gasoline will also be closely watched as we should get an indication as whether or not gasoline demand is flagging due to high prices. So far the divergence to last year's demand levels has been contained to about 1%. Anything more and gasoline may soften which would likely over-ride the crude the number, at least in the immediate reaction. I would note that the Platt's survey predicted small builds in crude and products.
Stocks We Care About Today
Bakken Players Update. I plan to update and augment these tables as time goes by. I continue to play the Bakken via call positions in (CLR), (NFX) and (WLL).
Deutshce Bank Energy Conference Day 2 (all times EST)
- (CLR) - 7:30 to 8:15 - doubt they will add much new over last week but plan to listen
- (XCO) - 9:10 to 9:55
- (PXD) - 10 to 10:45
- (NBR) - 10:50 to 11:35 - my largest holding so you can bet I will be listening.
- (SII) - 11:40 to 12:25 - bits and mud, things we will be needing more of.
- (SWN) - 2 to 2:45
- (FTO) - 2:50 to 3:35
- (BJS) - 3:40 to 4:25
Crack Spread Update: Trending up seasonally. I hold (FTO) and may add (VLO) soon.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch: FBR upped its price target for (PXD) from $75 to $90. Stifel starts a number of E&P companies with buy ratings and high price targets: (BBG) - $69, (COG) - $74, (HK) - $32. Otherwise pretty quiet and I will add any more that crop up this morning in the comments section.
About to listen to the KWK presentation at DB.
Just listened to a very good exchange between the head of Duke energy and the head of Autonation on CNBC about the future of oil, gasoline, ethanol, electric cars. If they replay it it worth paying attention to. Very interesting and I rarely pay attention to what the utilities do as that’s not my bag but they are moving from analogue to digital platforms to prepare for plug in vehicles. The autonation CEO was saying all electric cars are about 5 years away in large numbers with the Volt and a few others coming sooner.
Morning Z..Do you have a link for DB conf?
Here’s the link to the schedule. Some companies are webcasting, some are apparently not so I’m going to the co. websites to listen:
http://register.db.com/accounts/register123/deutschebank/conferences/events/energy08/schedule.pdf
Oil just shaved $1 buck in 5 minutes following pretty bullish statements by Matt Simmons and Tom Petrie on CNBC. Funny how T Boone can say less and juice and they get technical and it falls. Oil down $2 now and looks like its hooked on round number support game with a dip below $129 meaning a quick run down to see if $128 holds and so on.
XCO call apparently not being webcast which is lame. Slides look like nothing new.
Z — that one dollar drop in crude was not confined to just the energy markets. Gold and silver tanked simultaneously.
CNBC saying EIA numbers out at 10:30. Does not jive with the EIA website here:
http://register.db.com/accounts/register123/deutschebank/conferences/events/energy08/schedule.pdf
I will call EIA and get back to you.
Thanks Brian, it did come with a minor uptick in the dollar index.
CNBC is right, both oil and natural gas coming out at 10:30 EST…fun, fun.
Natural gas down 0.19 before the open, or 1.6%, exactly the same percent oil is down.
Heating oil and gasoline are off less, about 1 and 1.25% respectively.
Energy stocks set to open lower along with the broad market. I’m not considering adding any trades pre 10:30est inventory numbers
Looks like the weakness in commodity prices, as well as added strength in the US$, were the result of the Commerce Dept’s release of better than expected Q1 GDP numbers. Stronger economic growth reduces the prospect for future interest rate cuts. Helps the US$ and weighs on tangibles.
from 1st qtr conf call of eac, from jpmorgan report bakken acres as of 1-16-08; net ac/1,000 shares outstanding: eac:2.86, wll:2.26, clr:1.85, bexp:0.91, eog:0.77. eac has put out the for sale sign so we may get a mkt valuation fot these stocks. they have a lot of madison production which is a shallower 1800′ formation thruout the williston. it is a stratigraphic trap & not productive thruout region, it does have good #s where productive & everybody gets a look on the way to the bakken. probably would have to be drilled & completed sep.
Brian – agree that’s the basic math. Flipside is, a strong economy consumes more oil. All pretty moot in the big scheme of petroleum supply / demand realities.
Texana: are those acreage numbers 1000x # so they are saying BEXP has 91,000 net acres in Bakken?
For those that missed Matt Simmons interview on CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=756480032&play=1
Thanks RS
net acres per 1000shares outstanding, i think with there recent purchase they r around 287,000 ac in mt & nd williston
zman:
oil down, energy stocks down, even NG down, at least for now, VLO up, all makes sense,
but, with energy stocks lower, some of these must become attractive again to buy,
10:30 EST is 7:30 on West Coast, reports come out in about 1/2 hour,
Easier to dump shares than to draw them up. SD holding up relatively good.
Texana – that’s why I was wondering, I put a table of Bakken acreage from many players in today’s post. Need to add EAC but the rest I went to most recent pr and presentations for their numbers, plan to continue to continue update this and the Haynesville reference tables as more data comes in and time allows.
Uop – I generally don’t buy before inventory numbers on Wed or in this case Thursday, moves mean little pre #s. Wrong number and oil is $125 and you can buy them all cheaper. The stronger things yesterday will be strong again today if traders like the numbers. crude inventory and gasoline demand will probably be most important numbers of the day.
on good numbers, EOG, CLR, WLL all will rally strongly. SLB will likely completely reverse this as well. CLB and the offshore rig names too.
Aubrey bought another $31 mm worth of his stock at this price but that get ignored until the inventory numbers give a green light on the group.
about to get on the PXD presentation. KWK earlier was excellent.
bo more wll this mrng on pullback
Morning all. Z can you just confirm that oil inventory data is at 10.30 est and not 1pm as they were originally saying
X also giving another opportunity to buy in at the low end of this little base that’s forming, down $5+ today.
Nicky – I called EIA and it is 10:30 am EST, about 25 minutes from now.
Even if the bearish count plays out on oil it looks like it needs a pop above yesterdays highs.
Thanks Z.
mdu another player actively drlg
oil being bottom fished on decent volume
I’ll try to take EOG calls if I like the oil numbers, stock getting taken to the woodshed. Numbers in 5 minutes.
According to my calculator, NOV currently at 14.4 x ’09 EPS. Just nibbled on some longsih DITM calls to start a new position.
Numbers must be bullish.
Oil pre report: $129.30
Crude: down 8.8 mmbls
Gasoline: down 3.2
Distillates: imncreased 1.6
Refiner utilization: 87.9%
Natural gas: 87 in line
ah yeah, kinda bullish, oil at 132.3 and climbing.
Imports were 9 mm bopd, that’s weak and most of the draw and the EIA sites temporary delays gulf coast tanker offloading. That will likely mitigate some of the bullishness such a number would normally generate.
Wow, CHK quite a swing stock these days
Gasoline demand of 9.373 is barely up from the prior week.
Dman – the whole group should end green. The rally is a bit muted so far due to #32.
Still stuffing the SPR.
Inputs to refineries were up about 200,000 bopd which is pretty weak given last weeks number, and meaning that the big draw was more than 80% attributable to the low imports number and not high demand.
Sane – any API numbers?
Crude not liking the numbers right now, back off from that initial surge. It’s a low quality draw down as those barrels are just sitting off the coast and will play catch up next week.
The tug of war comes from the gasoline draw and that is simply a matter of refiners not making as much as they normally do this time of year. Plus, they are making a little more diesel, given the higher cracks their than is normal.
API
Crude Down 8.7M
Gasoline Down 3M
Distallate Down 266K
Almost all of gasoline draw was blending components. Conventional gasoline was flat.
Yesterday’s CHK “DAY TRADE” now $3.20 bid
Sane – thought the Senate had passed something stopping the filling of the SPR?
Yeah me too.
Sane – nice confirmation there. The should have titled the release “It was the imports stupid”
Crude going red.
Scoop – for a brief second then lower with oil.
Natural gas getting beaten down a bit on that in line number which is odd.
SPR = wheels of govt slow to turn.
rigs running in nd; CLR:11, EOG:8, HES:7, MRO:6, WLL:5, burlington:4, fido:3, EAC:2, headington:2, bexp:1, nfx:1,& many others @ 1 for a total of about 72. a long way to 197
SPR = they contracts for delivery farther out, they just stopped signing new contracts
Actually, at 87 Bcf, gas was in the middle of my range of 85 to 90 but the Street was at 84 so the immediate reaction was to sell it off. The inner workings of the EIA gas storage survey are hand grenade toss close at best and 3 Bcf is rounding error.
gaamblor,
true. They probably have all of the contracts to fill it to capacity, so it was a moot point for congress to say stop filling it.
Texana – thanks very much! Agreed re the gap to next year’s rig count target, that is 2009 target yes and not end 2008? Anyway, good news for rigs and ancillary services. Did you see Wyoming’s comment last night that onshore N. American day rates have jumped from the $17K per day range into the mid $20Ks? Wow.
no missed that, 2009
Thanks, and take it from me, he would know.
The price reaction after the data fits either wave count right now. Really need 133.65 to be taken out for the bullish count and a break of todays and then yesterdays lows for the bearish count.
DRYS selling hard.
Any thoughts on the big move in WNR the last week or so?
RE WNR Rally. Probably a takeover rumor, I will not touch them unless with a put but as the group starts to bottom all boats will be lifted.
Oil coming off now, down $1.60, giving up all pre number gains.
Stock moves are back to being caught up in the tick by tick moves in oil which at these prices or anywhere near these prices is silly. This leads to these days of the market loving or hating the energy sector.
At least for today, the only way to green the group is going to be to re-rally crude, and I’m not sure we are not headed back towards $124/125 near term support. A lot depends on today’s close. The expectation is that we will get those offshore barrels into inventories next week.
any comments on NBR presentation?
Nicky, yesterday you mentioned gold & silver looking bearish & today would seem to confirm that. My excellent commodities fundie guru is still looking for lower gold/silver ahead, prior to a rally later in 08 to much higher levels.
NBR – I didn’t hear anything new, said price would not be as important going forward as rig performance and they have the rigs that are outperforming the competition. Long term trends very favorable in US and Int’l.
Hmmm… price may not be important to NBR customers but it’s important to us, lol.
Z – did you catch the OII replay?
Re NBR – they are saying they don’t need price to see improved EPS, EBIT etc, they will have higher utilization.
OII – not yet.
Oil failing $128.
Gasoline hanging in there, in spite of crude’s downward move.
Antirm, yep, its really that unexpected build in distillates leading crude down. It’s going to be an interesting close.
This looks like the 5th week in about 10 where imports were ~9m, is it always problems offloading? last year it looks like there were about 5 for the year under 9.5, seems like maybe a trend is developing unless we see a string of over 10.5s soon
Sam must be out this week so here’s Uncle Phil:
http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html
No, not always and evidence points to an easing in OPEC production in the last month to 6 weeks. In this case it was logistical in nature as the EIA wrote:
“The drop was due to temporary delays in
crude oil tanker off-loadings on the Gulf Coast” ~ they usually don’t explain things like this in the early special file. I would expect a rebound in imports next week…of course so does the market so we are now pricing that in with this dip.
Thanks Fred, good week to be out, volume is pretty light in most names and the commodities.
Crude oil – support below todays 127.64 is not really firm until 125.96 (yesterdays lows). Distillates has already taken out their equivalent lows of yesterday so it may be an early warning…. if 125.96 goes then next support is 123.75.
120.75 is the line in the sand for the bullish count.
Michael Masters on CNBC.
Z – I traded out of FTO yesterday morning. Would you consider it foolish to roll my money into july 30s here?
Thanks for the levels Nicky.
V – I’m not adding more now. But July’s should be ok.
Feels like they will take at least one more shot at rallying crude today Nicky, perhaps back into green, selling lacks conviction.
crude gapping lower, last two minutes down $1 hitting new LOD of $127.20, pretty odd action, almost like someone was dumping a piece to slam it lower. Maybe T Boone has gone short again.
ZTRADE: June $30 DUG Calls for $1.15. Putting a little protection in place for the short term.
Interesting to see MMR flat in this market.
CXO – concho up 2%
PQ flat
XCO up a quarter
SD barely off
so while its definitely a red day its not some kind of capitulatory event.
Re #52 & 53 I am holding some WNR common in my IRA and IMO it’s a momenteum play lifting it here. Funds are unloading and the company has problems with debt covendents on their $800 million revolver that could drop it into the hands of the creditors. Too risky!
To the little guys, relatively, is there a big difference in future revenues whether it’s $135 or $120; $12 or $10.5?
Could it be the event before the capitulatory event? 🙂
Depends on the guy and the hedging they have in place as to the impact on cash flows. In some cases there will be little impact as they are highly hedged (like CHK). However, the group is trading on historic multiples that more closely approximate a forward curve on prices of $8.50 gas and $90- $100 oil. So if you question is, all things being equal, will the $120 and $10.5 result in lower actuals than current estimates the answer is a resounding no.
That makes sense. So the up and down swings in CHK are just noise.
El-V – sure, but it does not appear to be that to me. For one thing, everyone is looking for a top in oil at the tick of each minute on the clock.
The reason I took calls on DUG which equate to puts on the energy group at large is that for the first time in recent memory we had a spike up and reversal which often signals a change in direction in crude. However, I place less importance on this one as it was not at the last high and came on inventory day and a basic lack of understanding (at least right after the numbers came out) about what the numbers meant, as crude traders focused on the huge draw in crude and a breathless Sharon Epperson on CNBC screamed that the number was HUGE. What a knucklehead.
She’s the one(#79)that misinformed folks they couldn’t sell stock for a loss within 3 days of year end because stocks take three days to settle. She had to come back on and recant her misunderstandings a day later.
PXD – Here is your most important news related item of the day. What follows makes all the sense in the world. More importantly, Southeastern Asset Mgmt is Mason Hawkins who when he throws around his 40 billion+ assets gets his way faster than you can say Carl Icahn.
2008-05-29 06:11:26 PXD
[theflyonthewall] Southeastern Management reports a 19.5%stake in Pioneer Natural-PXD
Southeastern seeks to influence the board and management to hedge a meaningful portion of Pioneer’s oil production. This is the most important capital allocation issue facing the company today. With oil prices at all-time highs, Pioneer’s Net Asset Value could be “locked in” at values far higher than today’s stock price by using costless collars. Collars would still leave the company substantial exposure to further upward moves in the oil price. Southeastern urges the board to consider the benefit of guaranteeing price realizations dramatically higher than any price previously contemplated in Pioneer’s planning history. It should also seriously consider the downside to the company’s net asset value if the company doesn’t act and oil prices return to something closer to the commodity’s marginal cost of production. Southeastern urges other shareholders to consider the merits of collars and then convey those opinions to management. Southeastern intends to discuss with management, the Board, as well as various third parties opportunities to maximize the value of the company for all shareholders.
Z Would’nt puts on SU be a better way to play down oil?
Scoop – lately it has been outperforming oil I’ve noticed.
Z – re #70. I guess anything could and usually does happen with crude but right now the chart looks pretty bearish…distillates are absolutely tanking and bearing in mind they have led this rally up they may now be leading the way down. Only rbob holding up it seems.
Z- If I missed a couple of your julys, do you think it’s too soon to lag into them?
On a tech support call, which ones K?
NFX?
selling oil off pretty hard into the close, down 3.4%, nat gas down 4.3%.
Anybody see the reason for the quick spike on PBR?
NFX has been weak all day, no reason I see, recent upgrades, catalysts don’t seem to matter either. Am plenty long there and don’t see a reason to add in front of what could be a nasty open tomorrow.
Z- When to pull the trigger on EOG?
The PBR spike was due to Fitch Upgrading Brazil to investment grade. Money poured into EWZ of which PBR is the biggest component. Similar spikes in RIO, etc
Z, I have 10 June DUG 29s and I am losing money currently (-$1300). To get into the black on those DUG calls would devastate my June oil calls. Is there another way to hedge besides buying DUG calls. The spread on DIG puts is pretty wide.
Jazz
Bidding EOG June 125c at 6.70
Great day to be stuck on tech support with a half crashed trading platform.
Oil closed NYMEX near its lows. Good support is 125 and 124 in my book.
Large and mid-cap E&P getting hit.
Jazz – USO. The stocks are not getting hit as bad oil on the whole. Best defense is cash. I plan to hold through weakness like this in oil and the group and releasing those DUG calls with the group here or a little lower.
Z- re #86..NFX, HAL, OII.
EOG – yeah, see no reason why it should be getting hit this bad. Not bottom fishing today unless I see the group start to get lifted by the broad market. So far no joy on that front.
Re those names HAL probably safest, holding up best so far which either means it will rally into green with a group recovery or it just has not fallen yet. Note XOI, XNG, and OIH charts do not appear to be “breaking down” now and are not through yesterday’s lows. That’s generally a good thing.
Whoever said that the equities were falling before the commodities the other day was dead right.
I plan on holding my DUG calls for a pretty short period, probably closing them after the open tomorrow.
Scoop – I round tripped that 50% gain in CHK. ug.
Is it old news that TBOON owns SD?
Scoop – don’t know if that is new to the market but it is to me. Not surprising given his liking pure plays.
Ugly day, could have been worse, damage is not chart breaking in most cases.
WLL off $5 is pure recent profit taking, same goes for EOG off about 5%.
Z – Why do you think most refiners are down? You’d think they would be up with oil off over $4. Could it be just throwing out the baby with the bath water?
Fred,
Refiners often follow the move in crude first, especially given a change in direction and then once the dust has settled, they focus on crack spreads. Logically what you are saying makes sense but that’s how it generally plays out. Also, there was that “baby and bathwater action today”
Z–Is it my imagination or is a significant low crossing the Yukatan.
Afternoon K, I think I had that in the post. Is it still alive over land?
Yep, here it is, headed for the gomex and now a tropical storm. Doubt it makes it back to water as such.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/na200702_flashtool.html?extraprod=flashtool#a_topad
Sambone is the local hurricanologist around here but I’d say development is unlikely. Will check to see how warm Gomex water is now. Note that that link above has it turning into a CAT 1 hurricane by landfall tonight but then it will be over land for days as a TS, TD then probably a low pressure wave before reaching water again.
Tom Ward, SD ceo another 230,000sh purchase reported.
Zman,are we still exporting crude and finished product and if so how much and to whom?
John11 – is that a duplicate of the prior report or new shares.
benbobby – still at 1.409 mm bpd but the weekly number is only an estimate and the govt has had it pegged there since the first week of May. Having listened to valero this week I have no doubt exports are still running high.
Z These are new shs. bought on tuesday reported today, paid a low of 51.90 and a high of 53.53. He used to buy CHK stock right along with Aubrey at this rate when he was COO at CHK. These boys play in a whole other league…and play very well!
J11 – thanks.