09
May
Flying Oil Friday
Housekeeping Note: Thanks! Subscriber growth continues to advance. That's good for both of us in one way as it brings resources to bear to the site that we didn't have access to several months ago. I will say that I could not be more please with the constructive spirit and knowledge base of the site. Thanks again for making me a better trader. In another way growth has its downside as I only have so much time and though my wife has tried to clone me the results are dubious at best. Some of the busyness on the site may result in me dropping a response or two from time to time. This is the last thing I want to do. If I don't get back to you ask again or drop me a note at zmanalpha@gmail.com. Also, feedback on the site is welcome and needed. We are working on a long overdue site review but as in many things in life, it falls subject to the demands of time ... in this case, 1Q08 results have taken precedence. Anyway, thanks and keep keeping me on my toes. ~ Z
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch - added June X and some July PQ calls, and sold the HK May calls
- Commodity Watch
- Stocks We Care About Today - SWN, SD
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch: Starting to think more and more about losing May options. The Wiki and perf tabs are updated.
- (X) - Entered the June $180 U.S. Steel calls (BXWFP)for $8. This is a play on steel demand in general and the OCTG market in particular. I went in small as I'm new to the space and will firm up my thesis in the space in coming days/weeks.
- (PQ) - Added the July $25 for $1.10. I'll be shedding the May calls here very soon.
- (HK) - Sold the May $22.50 calls (HKEX) for $4, up 105% since April 29 entry. I still hold the June strikes here and may add to those positions in the next few days.
A Note On May Holdings: I have a handful of May option positions still open. For the most part they are up but there are some scuds in the list. I will be liquidating them in the very near future. They are all on the bubble as I despise watching a position tick by tick during the later half of expiry week. Will all the Mays exit the building today? No but they will be dispensed according to perceived risk and volatility on my part. That means everything but (NBR) and (HAL) could go as you read this Friday morning.
Commodity Watch:
- Crude Oil: Crude traded lower early but as expected the June contract closed at a new high, up $0.16 at $123.69. OPEC commented that there is plenty of oil on the market and the OPEC Secretary General rejected calls from Cartel members for bumping production. This morning crude is trading up well over a $1 and is above $125 per barrel.
- Brazil Watch: President Lula plans to see first production from the rumored to be 33 billion barrel Carioca discovery in 2010. "We want to begin test drilling in March and start pumping oil from 2010. Brazil will then become a large oil exporter. We want to join Opec and try to make oil cheaper. The start date is hugely ambitious. The OPEC statement could drive crude significantly higher.
- Natural Gas traded off slightly following an in line gas storage injection. Click here to see last night's Gas Storage Review which includes a new chart graphically depicting the conservatism of E&P analysts relative to the current gas futures strip. Natural gas is trading up a dime this am.
Stocks We Care About Today Watch:
SWN Ups CapEx and Volume Guidance.
- '08 Capital budget increases 16% to $1.7 billion.
- '08 production goes up 14% to a range of 460 to 468 MMcfepd, roughly 50% over 2007 levels.
- SWN will be putting up "best in class" production growth and this move has positive implications for other Fayetteville Shales names including (CHK), (HK) and (PQ).
SD Reports Beats Street; Raises Guidance. This one caught me off guard as I thought they were gong to report next week.
The 1Q08 Numbers:
- Reported EPS of $0.19 (ex items) vs $0.14 expected,
- CFPs of $1.02 vs $0.86 expected,
- production of 250 MMcfepd up 78% YoY
Reserves Update: In truly CHK protege like fashion SD provided a quarterly update showing reserves climbed 12% from YE07 to 1.516 Tcfe, with low finding costs ($1.73 per Mcfe all-in and a very low $1.50 / Mcfe strictly with the drillbit)
Guidance:
- 2008 : increased by 5% to 273 MMcfepd.
- cost guidance remains unchanged on a $/Mcfe basis
Conference Call: 9 Est.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch: (RAIL) upped to buy at Lehman (was just thinking about this one yesterday regarding their labor troubles), (HES) upped to hold at Lehman with a $110 pt, (GDP) cut to reduce at Robinson Humphrey,
The Best Seismic I've Seen In Quite Some Time. Spud a couple of months ago this one will reach TD in mid December.
7:18 am EST
Nymex Crude Hits New Record High
By Lananh Nguyen
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON — Nymex crude oil surged past the $125 a barrel milestone in London trade Friday, as crude futures extended their record-breaking run.
Prices were lifted to fresh highs for the fifth day in a row by bullish technical charts and investment flows.
“The uptrend feeds the uptrend — the more increases you see, the higher the investment demand will be,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank.
At 1101 GMT, the front-month June Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was up $1.93 at $124.77 a barrel after earlier hitting a record-high $124.91 a barrel.
The front-month June contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.64 higher at $125.33 a barrel, after earlier posting a record high $125.48 a barrel.
The ICE’s gasoil contract for May delivery was up $37 at $1,190.75 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for June delivery was up 308 points at 316.86 cents a gallon.
Technical momentum was enough attract a flood of investors into the oil market Friday, pushing prices back above their highs in the absence of fundamental news.
“(Funds) are currently being attracted by oil’s rapid price appreciation this year,” said Michael Davies, head of research at Sucden commodities. “This probably explains the move higher over the last few days on what many have regarded as bearish news.”
Friday’s rally was a “follow through” on Thursday gains and an extension of the last $10 a barrel move higher, said a crude oil trader based in London.
“$125 (a barrel Nymex) is probably a psychological level. If that closes above $125, then off we ago again,” the trader said.
Options activity was also focused on the $125 a barrel strike price for Nymex crude, which an energy broker cited as contributing to the price rise.
Separately, China recorded a rare on-year fall in crude oil imports in April, a person familiar with the preliminary data said Friday, likely due to high prices and record volumes arriving in Chinese ports the previous month.
The country imported 14.24 million metric tons of crude oil in April, equivalent to 3.48 million barrels a day — down 3.8% from the 14.82 million tons were shipped in during the same month of 2007.
—By Lananh Nguyen, Dow Jones Newswires
May 9th, 2008 at 7:37 amTexana re BEXP pump and dump. There has been a notorious pump and dump shop touting the stock on its Haynesville acreage and saying things like “get in now because our membership alone can drive stocks higher, don’t delay!!!” I’m not saying its a bad company but the type of investor who jumped at $7 due to these guys will probably flood back out when they declare the move over. Can’t remember the name of shop but they are truly notorious.
May 9th, 2008 at 7:41 amcrude up $2 at 125.60
May 9th, 2008 at 7:46 amZman, congrats! boy/girl?
Also, should oil heavily reverse, do you think its ok to sell off the positions at their highs and buy them back lower as oil price seems to affect these plays?
May 9th, 2008 at 7:47 am(or might be too early to tell?)
May 9th, 2008 at 7:49 amBossman G – Thanks, will get new seismic in a couple of months to determine that.
Yep, this high oil is not necessarily good news for the stocks as it may kill the broad market.
May 9th, 2008 at 7:50 amHK volumes showing trades from the secondary going through.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:02 amz- congrats on confirmation by seismic!
May 9th, 2008 at 8:03 amEXXI- Third Point Files 13G
May 9th, 2008 at 8:04 amOn SD Conf Call
May 9th, 2008 at 8:06 amI love the wee little smiling face!
May 9th, 2008 at 8:07 amMorning all. Z – CNBC are reporting that overnight OPEC have said they will consider increasing production (of course if the fundamentals call for it!) and may meet before September. This move is backed up Nigeria.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:07 amBut who cares about that eh? GS call for $200 so its onwards and upwards….
congrats z.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:08 amPS – just seen the above and congratulations – you will be able to trade through the night in December!
May 9th, 2008 at 8:10 amthx z, do we know pricing on hk 2ndry
May 9th, 2008 at 8:15 amNicky,
May 9th, 2008 at 8:15 amDo you have a link for a good $USD chart that updates? I’m on StockCharts and it is late to the dance. Wondering about where it stands. Thanks
Minimum upside target for nat gas is 11.465. Possible targets are between 11.000 and 12.030. We should then see a very good pullback….
May 9th, 2008 at 8:16 amI’m just excited to be able to staff up from internal resources!
SD – no exploration results yet on their West Texas Overthrust deeper program
30000 acres cotton valley going well, not thinking about Haynesville for now.
Texana – no but it appears only slightly in the hole given the price right now.
Nicky – I think it turns when oil does.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:16 am8:33 am EST
Nymex Crude, Led By Heating Oil, Above $125/Bbl
By Lananh Nguyen
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
From MARKET TALK:
[Dow Jones] Nymex crude remains firmly above $125/bbl after rising to a new record $125.98/bbl overnight. Heating oil futures continue to lead the way, outpacing gains in crude. “All in all, this bull move remains much intact and a further crude price advance to the $129.50 area as early as next week appears likely,” says Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates energy advisory firm. Nymex Jun crude +$1.56 at $125.25/bbl. (greg.meyer@dowjones.com)
May 9th, 2008 at 8:17 amTater – you could try this one…
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/US/68
However I think it has a small delay and you will have to refresh it.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:22 amCrude hit 126.20
May 9th, 2008 at 8:25 amWay to go Z! Growing through the drill bit!
May 9th, 2008 at 8:26 amA move below 121.58 will provide confirmation that this wave is done. It is possible however, that this is ONLY wave i! If so we see a pullback towards 115 before onwards and upwards. If the whole move is done then 110.29 will be taken out.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:29 amThank you Nicky! Perfect. Purposely have only looked at dollar on an end of day basis, needed an update for this morning for a trade. Appreciate it
May 9th, 2008 at 8:29 amZ Congtatulations, Since you already have a little Zette, I rooting for big blue
May 9th, 2008 at 8:29 amany thoughts on OII?
May 9th, 2008 at 8:34 amMiss Eppperson currently has oil running through her veins I think!! Anyway she is reporting huge buying in call options for $150 oil before it expires next week!
May 9th, 2008 at 8:36 amWhat was the HK secondary priced at?
May 9th, 2008 at 8:38 amElwo – I have not yet seen a price
May 9th, 2008 at 8:41 amZ..When do you expect info on the May ATW ?
May 9th, 2008 at 8:41 amATW announced, numbers were strong, have not got a pos there and have not reviewed in depth.
pretty red open here with the broad market, CLR jumping
May 9th, 2008 at 8:44 amirished – My thoughts on OII: I wish I bought it when it flirted with the low $60s !! Thought about it, put an order in but it skipped away & I didn’t chase. That’ll learn me.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:47 amzman;
my anticipated drop in the steel happened now, too much excitement.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:49 amthks dman.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:51 amCongratulations to Mr. & Mrs Z. Time to look ahead to options on diaper stocks.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:54 amBlessyaboth,
apbd
Uop – you think more short term than me. Metals are off with the market, I’d be pretty careful shorting “tops” in cheap stocks with improving fundamentals.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:56 amcongrats z s , buying more wll on dip & hk
May 9th, 2008 at 8:56 amZ – congrats on the seismic results. As for the cloning thing, well as someone who has an actual clone (=identical twin) I can agree that the results are dubious at best 🙂
May 9th, 2008 at 8:57 amCongrats Mr. and Mrs. Z.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:57 amDoes anybody have an opinion about Hiland HLND?
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080508/lath563.html?.v=1
May 9th, 2008 at 9:08 am09-May-08 10:04 ET
Petrohawk Energy announces it has priced its public offering of 25 mln shares
May 9th, 2008 at 9:08 amof common stock. All shares were offered at $26.39. (26.34 -0.30)
9:49 am EST
Oil Surges Past $126 A Barrel
By GREGORY MEYER
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Crude oil futures blasted above $126 a barrel Friday, led up by strong demand for heating oil and other distillates.
Light, sweet crude for June delivery was recently up $2.17, or 1.8%, at $125.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract earlier made a record intraday high of $126.20.
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was $2.72 higher at to $125.56 a barrel, after reaching an intraday record of $125.90.
Heating oil futures continued to surge, leading crude higher. The U.S. government reported U.S. distillates stockpiles fell unexpectedly fell last week. Internationally, stockpiles of the distillates gasoil and diesel remain in great demand.
“Heating oil’s being helped by diesel prices. They move in pretty close tandem,” said Rick Mueller, director of the oil practice for consultancy Energy Security Analysis Inc. “Demand for diesel has been growing quite strongly in Europe, and it’s also been growing pretty well in the U.S. That’s helping to pull up heating oil.”
Front-month June heating oil futures were recently trading up 8.74 cents, or 2.5%, at $3.5972 a gallon after reaching a record $3.6125.
“Traders are looking for anything they can hang a bullish call on, and right now this is the most convenient victim,” Mueller said.
Oil’s has soared amid global demand in emerging economies, static output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and sluggish supply growth outside of it.
On Friday, the oil minister of OPEC member Nigeria said he’d support a meeting of the group this summer, ahead of its next scheduled meeting in September, if it appears more crude is needed. But he said said the market was well supplied at the moment.
“I would support a meeting (before September) if the fundamentals indicate that intervention to increase or reduce supply is warranted,” minister Odein Ajumogobia told Dow Jones Newswires. “We are all watching the market closely and stand ready to intervene as appropriate.”
Crude futures have closed higher for the last five sessions, and made records in the last four. They have doubled over the last year.
Fast-growing demand in China has helped stir buying. But counter to trends, the world’s most populous nation’s crude oil imports fell in April, a person familiar with the preliminary data said Friday, likely due to high oil prices, record volumes arriving in Chinese ports the previous month and maintenance at several refineries.
China imported 14.24 million metric tons of crude oil in April, equivalent to 3.48 million barrels a day, the person said on condition of anonymity. This is down 3.8% from the 14.82 million tons that were shipped in during the same month of 2007. It is the first time that China’s imports of crude have declined on year since October 2006.
Front-month June reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 5.42 cents, or 1.7% to $3.1920 a gallon, after reaching a record $3.2011.
—By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires
May 9th, 2008 at 9:08 amMargins
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE) slammed congressional proposals aimed at
the futures market’s potential impact on surging crude oil prices, calling
current market oversight “sound.”
Senate Democrats have proposed higher cash collaterals for energy futures
trading, but some say such a move in the U.S. could cause a migration to
foreign exchanges and rob the market of the liquidity that some participants in
the market say they need to hedge their risk.
ICE, a commodities futures exchange, said in a statement Friday that “the
hastily submitted legislative proposals to place arbitrary controls on
regulated energy futures markets do not offer short-term relief or long-term
solutions to the drivers of crude oil prices. … The various trading proposals
by Senate Democrats would result in adverse consequences for consumers, market
prices and on the competitiveness of the U.S. markets.”
Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., said he hopes that by increasing margins for crude
contract trades from around 5% to 7% now to 25% of the contract’s value,
speculators will be less likely to risk their cash in a volatile market. By
comparison, to trade stocks, the Securities and Exchange Commission requires a
50% margin.
ICE said, “Proposals designed to place restrictions on qualified participants
would inevitably impact liquidity, leading to the degradation of price
discovery, and importantly, increasing the potential for even greater price
volatility. The presence of hedgers, and those that are willing to take on the
risk that hedgers wish to lay off, are vital to properly functioning markets.”
The Senate bill is part of an energy package that Majority Leader Harry Reid,
D-Nev., announced Wednesday. It has the support of Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M.,
chairman of the energy committee, and other high-ranking Democrats as a tool to
fight speculation.
But ICE contended that “global demand, supply constraints and evident
geopolitical risks, if coupled with proposed market limitations, would do
nothing to lower, and may actually increase, oil prices.” Instead, the company
called for curbing U.S. dependence on foreign oil.
ICE shares were recently down $3.62, or 2.3%, at $156.10.
-By Kevin Kingsbury, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2136;
kevin.kingsbury@dowjones.com
(Ian Talley contributed to this story.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 9th, 2008 at 9:11 am05-09-08 1008ET
should we buy sd?
Whats gas company has hedged their output the least
May 9th, 2008 at 9:14 amSome big reversal days recently in E&P cohort: DVN, CHK, HK, PQ, XCO. Don’t know what it means… maybe just earnings driven volatility, maybe they need a rest.
Z – I’m trying to get a handle on your comments recently regarding E&Ps and the price/availability of pipe. I can see that actual shortage could cause a real problem with valuable properties sitting idle. But as for price, how bad would it have to get to make a meaningful dent in CFPS?
May 9th, 2008 at 9:16 amRe sd , im not chasing it here, just yet
May 9th, 2008 at 9:17 amDman its on on good question back to u later but it willnot impact greatly for on on time cfps, more likely to cause drilling delays
May 9th, 2008 at 9:21 amFor those wondering, aaatest = the Zmobile
May 9th, 2008 at 9:22 amCan i get on on percent move update on crude, ng dow points , xng oih, cop etc, thanks
May 9th, 2008 at 9:26 amDow: -107
OIH: -1.1%
CHK: waffling around flat
HAL: -1.8%
SD: $48.76 down from $50.64
COP: -1.4%
USO: +0.22%
May 9th, 2008 at 9:32 amUNG: +0.81%
clr simo fraced 4 wells in woodford hughes co,ok with laterals up to 4200 ‘ good ol boy hamm said,”we got some mighty fine flow rates to show for it.”
May 9th, 2008 at 9:39 amGood morning,
Z-wonderful news! what a blessing!
Mr K update-has gone from 2-2 rating to a 5-2 this am. (nueral short term)
Interesting colulmn I read this am about India (which coincides with Sam’s margin piece) about the govt intervening in commodity markets for the “good” of the nation-
The Forward Markets Commission in India, an organization similar to our CFTC, yesterday halted all trading in soybean oil and rubber futures for four months. These are key markets for India, as half of its 1.1 billion inhabitants live on less than $2 a day and have been facing shortages and hoarding of core commodities because of rampant inflation. This move is similar to a ban on trading of wheat and rice imposed by the Indian government in 2006, an experiment that seemed to have little impact on the rising prices of those commodities.
Speaking of India-there was a article last weekend in the FT about a farmer finding his camel was now more economical to use than his tractor. (you can’t make this up)
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/05/transpsortation-camels-oil-prices.php
May 9th, 2008 at 9:50 amHow is a frac done? I read that it gets the attention of neighbors to the well.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:54 amAlso a good artcle in Ft about cap ex spending in the commodity and energy space-(slow to ramp up and what incentive do CEO’s have to do it when it takes decades(in the case of mining) for it to pay off. They will not be around to reap the benefits
If the GS spike of $200 a barrel were to materialize-the avg driver would be spending $3500 a year -10% of per capita disposable income!
Certainly bodes ill I remain short retail
May 9th, 2008 at 10:02 amI have a question for everyone. Down here in the south gas is $3.60 a gallon for regular. I have not seen a slowdown in cars or traffic. 1) What is everybody else seeing in that regard and 2) At what price for a gallon will people slow down their driving? It reminds me of the frog and a pot of water on the stove.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:03 amGreat question Sam-
I am of the belief it takes time-habbits are hard to break-but when the country gets those electricity bills this summer?
I would imagine vacation plans are being curtailed.
And we do not have much public transit in the south
May 9th, 2008 at 10:12 amI drive around and the traffic is terrible. I ask friends about vacation they are still going to the beach. I really don’t see any change. If oil goes to $150, that would be about $4.50 at the pump. I just scratch my head and wonder why.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:16 amThey pay almost 10$ a gallon some places in europe and there most people still drive although demand is less than the states.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:20 amsambone
May 9th, 2008 at 10:20 amspent the winter in Fl (snowbird)and no slowdown in speed. I have a diesel motorhome and was doing 60 and was passed by everything on wheels. Am in Bowling Green KY. and no change whatsoever in driving habits from Fl to here. Cannot understand. At 4 dollars a gallon for diesel, I have to slow down.
In Houston, my friends in their F 250’s complain about $120 fill ups, but they cannot change driving habits as its work related. Just wonder about their ability to pass along prices, and when they do, who will feel that??
Freeways still jammed with folks but a few more taking the “park and ride” buses.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:25 amNot in Chicago..Tollways are packed with single driver cars & SUVs.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:31 amRIG getting drop kicked,
Red day otherwise but it looks pretty well contained to a little profit taking.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:32 amTex – you didn’t see new data did you on the simul frac, I have previously seen 3.8 mm/d avg IP of the 4 wells
May 9th, 2008 at 10:33 amRe Frac: One of the oil guys who does this for a living feel free to expound on this at length but in the simplest terms it means pump sand or proppant into the well in an effort to fracture the formation making it easier for oil and gas to flow up the wellbore.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:35 amzman:
please give me an update on your latest NG conclusion and UNG future ?
May 9th, 2008 at 10:36 amRIG – Word on the street is that somebody (A bank?) is dumping.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:39 amThanks for the input Eli: he reminds me that the tout on BEXP is Tobin Smith from Changewave.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:40 amnatural gas will likely reverse when oil does. I see no reason to try to pick a top in the name with people exploring the out limits on crude prices. Near term neg catalyst would be the restart of Independence hub which will bump domestic production about 2% but NG is going for $16 in Europe and higher in Japan which is keeping LNG away from US shores. Also, you’ve got a continuous cover and reshort going on in gas and we are headed into hurricane season which will provide supportive sentiment.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:41 amRefiners just getting shelled.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:41 amTristone cuts TSO target from $22 to $18
May 9th, 2008 at 10:46 amZ – Would you frown upon someone ditching their may nfx right now? Or is it a wait and hope?
May 9th, 2008 at 10:50 amSAMB – I wish our Reg gas would be $3.60. West coast is $3.95 to $4.25.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:52 amI think we get positive revision in Merrill estimates and price target on Monday for HK. Market likely to grain of salt it with them having just done the deal but numbers going to be rising.
PQ – numbers are rising. Were $4.76 on 2009 CFPS a month ago, now $5.15, more to come.
VTZ – no, not at all, I was planning to drop them on pop but the pop seems to be delayed.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:52 amZMAN – Any thoughts on SD SEPT 55’s?
May 9th, 2008 at 10:59 amInteresting to see the separation of wheat from chaff. Cheap working well. NBR flat. Rest of group greening as oil comes off its highs which is taking a little pressure of the broad market. Kind of counter-intuitive but that’s my read on the current action.
That little WH keeps going up, X off all of yesterday’s gains with market.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:59 amOur reg gas is $3.90 here outside of Chicago. I have heard a lot of people round starting to talk about getting a new car that gets better gas mileage, but it remains to be seen if they actually do. I just tell the people who bitch constantly to quit being a part of the problem and be a part of the solution.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:01 amRam – probably ok but I’m not nibbling today (holding the common from way back) but I need to listen to the call again, do a little math and get back to the name next week. Same goes for SWN where their pr has been trumped by the market.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:01 amAubrey gives $15 mm to OU with part of that targeted towards climate change. Let’s see how much the politicians have given to stop global warming.
Stocks just trading with the broad market.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:10 amZ If you liked your X trade on Thur. do you love it today
May 9th, 2008 at 11:16 amHK: Tristone Capital raises price target from $26 to $34.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:16 amScoop – that’s a fair statement and I will likely take a second piece down here today or maybe Monday. I see no hurry as today just looks like mounting profit taking so it could go lower. I think CNBC summed it up pretty well as energy and commodity traders have some fat recent profits in hand, they are selling and leaving the pits early for the weekend. This applies to the equities as well.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:19 amz, from the oklahoman article: —initial prod rates 40% higher for each of the wells in the grouping of 4 than they were for the 2 outlying wells drilled earlier. 4 wells had ip of 17.8 & ea well avg 3.84 during 1st week
May 9th, 2008 at 11:21 am17.8 in aggregate. So a little better than 4.5 MMcfepd apiece and then 3.8 on a 7 day test?
Ya know, NFX has tapped over a dozen extended laterals in the Woodford with IPs over 10 MMcfepd…the more recent, the better.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:24 amhow long r nfx lat
May 9th, 2008 at 11:30 amX – CIBC took their estimate for 2008 EPS to $16.30 vs consensus of $14.24. They did this based on news that X had added a substantial per ton charge to steel orders (an extra $250 which is pretty significant).
Tex – I think average on those is about 4,400 feet and rising. 3D helping to avoid the faulted out areas
May 9th, 2008 at 11:31 amZTRADE: COP May $90s for $0.60 – still getting filled there.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:44 amZMan.. HK, DVN, EOG and some others getting smacked, would you nibble or just wait til next week?
May 9th, 2008 at 11:45 amGary – pretty tempted to nibble on June or longer in those names and to punt any remaining Mays (I only have PQ in Mays). This is not bad selling, group looking pretty resilient to me and the smacking is really just a 2%ish give back after one heck of a run. Also tempted to add a little CLR while it is off its high, could be some news here soon out of them or another Bakken operator.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:52 amDJ wire sez HK secondary was upped from 21m shares to 25m (as Z predicted if I recall) and that they priced at $26.39
May 9th, 2008 at 11:53 amDman – re HK, its not hard to figure that at these prices management would exercise the show which I think was 3.2 mm shares. That tells you the deal was over-subscribed and the book managers needed the extra share inventory to meet orders. I’m very impressed with the syndicates management of this deal, very little softness for a no roadshow secondary. Gives me confidence to add…
May 9th, 2008 at 11:56 amRe: CLR – guessing someone has re-iterated and upped est’s and tp.. can’t see any news of it anywhere..
May 9th, 2008 at 11:59 amz, buying more or selling .coper?
May 9th, 2008 at 12:02 pmGary – that’s my guess as well. The three forks sanish test will be a separate press release at some point in the near future, rate could be comparable to the biggest rates seen in the Bakken to date so it’s probably an analyst trying to get in front of that.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:04 pmMan did I miss FTI, the subsea tree guys. yikes.
Sey – I bought more at $0.60, sorry it was not clear, the email said risky which would imply a buy but I got in a hurry.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:05 pmCNBC talking about distillate…they should have seen my distillate export charts in yesterday’s post. Refiners may be approaching a near term bottom but I’m not willing to play yet. Products are certainly outpacing crude today.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:06 pmLonger dated HK calls are not contracting much.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:09 pmJust a bit of a heads up for anybody who felt a pit in their stomach last week when oil dropped to 112ish. CLR common has moved 37% in six days. Puts are an easy form of insurance for that kind of gain. Sorry if that’s preachy, just remember reading a lot of “poor me” on this board only a week ago.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:10 pmSomebody said “poor me” over CLR? Wow, don’t remember that. Must be getting old. I do remember that after it rallied double digit percentage it took two days of rest and I said I thought it would keep moving up and I did not sell.
Ram – RE HK I see that, thanks for pointing out. Very seriously considering taking on more exposure to replace the exited Mays from yesterday.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:14 pmNBR turning green as the market sells off. Good volume, think people are still coming around on the future here.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:16 pmNBR going to lose the May calls and buy more June $40s.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:19 pmRoger that Tater, insurance often a good idea, especially when you think you don’t need it. Own 20 CLR June 30 puts worth zero, hope they stay that way. My poor me story with CLR is selling the June 40’s for 5.00 2 weeks ago.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:19 pmZTRADE: Out May NBR Calls for $4.50, up 120%.
Trying to buy some June $40s now.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:20 pmSorry, I thought that might be misunderstood. Not slamming the company or anybody’s picks. Just trying to point out a simple way to lock-in gains without being a seller as the stock has seen a very nice move.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:21 pmZTRADE: Added More June $40 Calls for $1.60.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:22 pmTater – never apologize. I was half kidding with the poor me thing. And I am getting old.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:24 pmHere in San Diego traffic is down–I’d say about 5 to 10% based upon the fact my 20-mile commute has become a breeze. Last spring/summer, with oil in the $60-70 range, freeways here were jam packed. Also seeing a lot more people on light rail and buses. Lots of new Priuses and a few Smart cars, majority of new cars with dealer placards (pre- permanent license plates)are compacts and sub-compacts. Will have a Chevy 4X4 1/2 ton for sale soon — am readying to buy a Ford Escape Hybrid. Spouse already bought a Mercedes M320CDI (diesel) that averages 25mpg. Horses are now getting around by commercial equine transportation, and, incidentally, hay has gone through the roof. The good Timothy and Orchard Grass hays from Washington and Oregon have gone to $26/bale due to diesel cost–was paying $18/bale last year.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:27 pmRegale – thanks for the color. Apparently horse care fees are going up here as well as we know a few kids who’ve quit riding, also noted the local Petsmart closed their tack shop due to lack of demand. We’ve had 3 prius on our block for 2 years now but I do think that the amount of smug produced by their owners may be contributing to global warming.
It’s been awhile since the broad market has gotten whacked into the close on a Friday. Once oil closes I would expect a pretty sharp move in one direction or the other…I know, I know… how sage of me.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:31 pmTater – I’m a big believer in put insurance, especially after significant gains and wanting to stay long the underlying.. no misunderstanding here… I know exactly what you meant and appreciate it
May 9th, 2008 at 12:36 pmTater – yep, what Gary said.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:37 pmJust trying to be helpful. I know this isn’t really a tech analysis site but having made a nice profit myself, CLR is now forming a doji candlestick, just like it did on April 28th and (sort of) on April 16th, which preceded pullbacks. It is also $8 above its 20 day EMA which is at about 45. Nothing goes straight up, and having made a very nice profit in the last 5 days (THANK YOU Z!) , i have entered a trade to also make a profit on a pullback, as I have read somewhere that stocks go down as well as up. I have a thick skin (and am also old as dirt) so no probs.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:40 pmregale, how do you like the ml320cdi? just wondering how it compares to the audi q7 tdi or bmw x5 diesel coming out
May 9th, 2008 at 12:44 pmTater – feel free to pass along all the TA you want to. I’m not a big TA guy as you know but am a fair hand at reading a chart. Your input is appreciated.
Wow – look at LNG, the company, down 36%. I hear Taps being played.
VW has a 75 mpg diesel coming out soon.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:45 pmZ, which vw are you talking about?
May 9th, 2008 at 12:46 pmVW Pollo
May 9th, 2008 at 12:47 pmVW Polo
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/motors/phil_lanning/article1142123.ece
May 9th, 2008 at 12:50 pmCrazy German Chicken?
May 9th, 2008 at 12:51 pmAgree that smug emissions from Prius owners are an underestimated contributor to global warming. I know one such owner whose house contains so many light globes (zillions of small halogens recessed in the ceiling) that just turning on the lights causes immediate glacial collapse in Antarctica.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:58 pmHello:
I am a recent subscriber and for the past few weeks have been trying to soak in all the intense energy related research posted here. Being a retired a chem engr, I find the insight excellent and look forward to a lot of learning.
Zmann: I have been following along on your HK play (and profited handsomely). How does a secondary (priced at $26.39 this am) with a 12% dilution affect the HK price short term, since we are playing short term (June) options? Thanks.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:00 pmzman:
when you go to a POLO game they serve POLLO.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:01 pmzman:
you mentioned I am short term, now you did the same, buying mayCOP.
HAHA.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:04 pmTater:
May 9th, 2008 at 1:04 pmI thought I was the oldest on the blog.
apbd
Z, wow, crazy polo..and that seems to be the sedan that gets 75mpg, i wonder how much better the hatchbacks are
May 9th, 2008 at 1:10 pmseems more efficient than a prius or any hybrid
Guru – glad you like the site and will be picking your brain on some topics in the future. For instance, gotta be thinking the ethylene margins are getting hit with the rapid rise in nat gas prices, not good for the likes of DD although they may be simply passing it along like everyone else.
RE HK – the impact of the dilution was taken into account and filed away by the market yesterday and today. Normally in a stock without further near term catalysts you can expect a week to a month of resting. In this case I would expect it to chart and upward course, of course barring an discombobulations in the broad and or energy markets.
Uop – I’m pretty opportunistic and will do long and short term plays including the occasional day trade as we approach expiry. You are shorting a stock based on a chart with the underlying trading at about 10x fwd earnings. I am long it and long a little COP which is the cheapest of the majors and the gassiest in a rising commodity price environment. I guess that’s what makes markets.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:13 pmBossG – I think the car pictured, which does get 75 MPG (diesel) is their green energy Passat, not available in the U.S. yet
May 9th, 2008 at 1:14 pmLooks like a greening of the group is yet again underway. Let’s get crude closed and a nice bounce and I will toss so more Mays out of the portfolio.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:15 pmWell, for all of that type space, I will be the first to say ignore my tech analysis of CLR as today’s candle is not done forming and it would appear now that it is not going to be in the shape that would warrant a bearish view. Oh well. At least I hope it was entertaining.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:16 pmah my bad, your right
May 9th, 2008 at 1:16 pm(also, probably not available in canada either where i’m at)
zman:
EOG,
few days ago sold some, still have
jun130,
now its 2$ lower,might want to restock a little, what is EOG’s future ?
Do they need more time, say july+++.
also:
May 9th, 2008 at 1:23 pmin your portfolio: are the positions live, meaning any change in the market is immediately reflected ?
UOP – Expanding on #123, I guess if I was going to short something that was at a 52-week high, I would want it to be conspicuously overvalued and would want the underlying fundamental trend to be turning down. That way, market “surprises” are likely to work in favour of a short. Whereas shorting steel stocks at their 52 week highs, but still cheap and with underlying trend moving in favour of the stocks, means you have high odds of “surprises” working against you. If I had just made 3-4% shorting NUE I’d be getting the hell outa there. But I wouldn’t bother in the 1st place. I’d rather just use the 3-4% decline as an entry point for much larger gains as the fundamentals play out.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:26 pmEOG – I’m not adding right now. Their future is bright. See what I said after the quarter on May 2 here:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2008/05/02/finally-friday-sector-bounce-is-due/
Live portfolio on my screen but not on the site.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:28 pmBossman,
May 9th, 2008 at 1:32 pmRe #111, we LOVE the 320CDI. Have had it for over a year. Purchased in Las Vegas in 2/07 and we could sell it for same price we paid for it, even though it’s now got 20K miles. When we go on vacation, we put a Yakima luggage carrier on top so we can get all the pets (sans horses) in the back. Great daily driver, plus will tow 7000 lbs., per Mercedes–will be purchasing a European composite horse trailer for those short, one-horse, 15-minute to half-hour trips (much to husband’s dismay) and continue to use commercial haulers for anything longer. Also quite easy to get a bale of hay in back (now the husband is groaning in agony), so plenty of room.
Z – a while back you mentioned you’d read some trading psychology & I’m interested in applying it. I’ve spent a lotta time investigating OII, NOV & FTI & have traded them over the last year with nice results. But now they’ve shot up & I only have token positions in each (a few call spreads & some stock) & ITS DRIVING ME NUTSOID!! What does the trading shrink say ?
May 9th, 2008 at 1:33 pmPick a copy of Trader Vic
http://www.amazon.com/Trader-Vic-Methods-Wall-Street-Master/dp/0471304972
and The Super Traders (a bit more history but good)
May 9th, 2008 at 1:37 pmpretty sure it’s the trade vic book that has a hole section on mastering emotions and also a bit on reading people and market behavior vs the numbers.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:38 pmDOW down 1.03%
S&P down 0.76%
XOI: down 0.87%
May 9th, 2008 at 1:44 pmXNG down 0.93%
OIH down 0.45% – interesting, look for an OIH multiple update on Monday.
OII, FTI, and NOV leading the oil service stocks higher now. Interesting to see the run leaving RIG off. There was an offshore tech conference this week but I turned my back and these things just launched. OII could probably go a lot higher but these things are not that cheap and I won’t chase in size into the weekend. Anybody see a note on these names? Argh, got busy on other stuff and let that OII get clean away from me.
Oil just on fire going into the end of the Friday session.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:52 pmZ would you be comfortable holding OII May $70 past today?
May 9th, 2008 at 2:01 pmScoop – the very question presupposes that I had been smart enough to buy it, lol. Hard for me, if I had it, not to roll it here. But Scoop, usually when you ask me a question like that, whatever the underlying is, it pops $5 the next day. Its the strangest phenom I’ve seen this year.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:11 pmTY I’ll hold
May 9th, 2008 at 2:13 pmZMAN – You’ve answered my question with regards to NOV in 136. Do you have any thoughts towards ATW now that it has released earnings?
May 9th, 2008 at 2:14 pmcan’t say I blame you. Now ask me about the COP. Please, ask me.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:14 pmZMAN – Do you have any thoughts on COP in the very short term?
May 9th, 2008 at 2:15 pmNice one, scoop. Nice one ram.
Thanks Z, I’m looking at Trader Vic on Amazon.
Did load the boat up with NBR, so that takes the edge off 🙂
May 9th, 2008 at 2:17 pmz do u have sec t&r location for the clr well sanish test
May 9th, 2008 at 2:19 pmATW – I have not looked at their numbers enough yet. Will look over the weekend
COP should recover with the broad market. This is my one real quick trade as we approach expiry and it’s gut / valuation based. The refining side is taken care of in terms of expectations … there are basically no expectations of improvement in the near term. The E&P will offer price deck based outperformance and to a greater degree than its peers due to its gas leverage, especially its Rockies gas where differentials have improved with greater access to markets (Rockies express pipeline)
May 9th, 2008 at 2:21 pmTexana – let me look through my notes and get back to you, I don’t have the lat and long but can probably get there with my notes and the ND map site.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:22 pmIf #141 was directed to me I was in @.88 and out@$1.15. Never had much success holding COP
May 9th, 2008 at 2:24 pmZ – not sure it’ll work if you *ask* to be asked 🙂
May 9th, 2008 at 2:25 pmScoop – I was just going to tell you not to buy it so it would then advance. I tell, it’s uncanny. See, Dman has found the error in my plan.
Wow, you can tell it’s Friday around here. If only Sam would drop in a movie quote trivia question I could quite for the week.
NBR and HAL working. I may drop the May HAL calls before the close.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:31 pmQuestion earlier about hedge positions. I’ll have an update on the E&P space in general with some new thoughts on Monday.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:33 pm3:18 pm EST
Oil Surges Past $126 A Barrel On Distillate Demand
By Gregory Meyer
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Crude oil futures capped a week of records above $125 a barrel Friday, electrified by world demand for distillate fuels.
Light, sweet crude for June delivery rose $2.27, or 1.8%, to settle at $125.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, later rising as high as $126.25.
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange climbed $2.41 to $125.25 a barrel. Brent settlement prices weren’t immediately available.
Benchmark Nymex crude has climbed six sessions straight and broken records in the last five. Powering the rally has been heating oil, a form of distillate fuel.
While the season for burning the oil is all but finished, U.S. stockpiles of distillates are below average. Heating oil futures also reflect a sturdy global market for distillates, which also include include diesel and gasoil.
“Heating oil is the tightest sector of the U.S. market,” said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “Distillate inventories are 11% lower than a year ago. There is some real physical tightness in that sector of the petroleum complex, so it continues to lead the way higher.”
June heating oil futures rose 12.62 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at a record $3.6360 a gallon.
Crude has more than doubled in the past year as consumption mounts in China, India and the Middle East, new supply has been slow in appearing and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries keeps a lid on output.
Still, with crude’s price up 11% in May alone, some believe the market has overshot reasonable levels.
“Oil’s recent meteoric rise has been fueled, in our view, by non supply-demand factors and by potential inventory misperceptions,” energy analysts at Lehman Brothers said in a note. “We judge the two most important factors unrelated to supply and demand are dollar weakening and investors’ desire to be exposed to real assets, leading to increased inflows from passive long-biased index investors.”
The dollar’s slow decline — down about 5% against the euro in the last six months — has softened the blow of more expensive crude oil on consumers using other currencies, helping keep buying interest strong for oil. But oil has risen all week despite uneven trading for the greenback against the euro.
Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil market analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Derivatives in London, said that while they’ve moved closer in recent months, the relationship between the two currencies is “episodic and unstable,” and there’s no guarantee it will last.
Since April 22, the euro has declined from a record high of $1.6020 to as low as $1.5285 on Thursday.
Since last fall, OPEC has stood pat on output levels and now supplies 42% of the world’s crude. OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri this week said there’s no shortage in the oil market, reiterating the cartel’s position that that market speculation causes high prices.
The oil minister of OPEC member Nigeria on Friday said he’d support an OPEC meeting ahead of the next scheduled gathering in September “if the fundamentals indicate that intervention to increase or reduce supply is warranted.”
“We are all watching the market closely and stand ready to intervene as appropriate,” the oil minister, Odein Ajumogobia, told Dow Jones Newswires.
Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told a German magazine that his country, flush with newfound oil reserves, wants to join OPEC.
Front-month June reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 6.34 cents, or 2%, to settle at a record $3.2012 a gallon.
More information on settlements and highs and lows for futures on Nymex and ICE platforms can be found by searching for the following headlines:
—By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires
May 9th, 2008 at 2:35 pmPopeye,
Anyone answer the frac question before I get blabbly? Still interested?
May 9th, 2008 at 2:35 pmWyo – I gave him the 2 second def. Feel free to expound.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:37 pmof all the gin joints…
May 9th, 2008 at 2:37 pmapbd
X – don’t call it a comeback!
A – I thought you didn’t drink!
May 9th, 2008 at 2:38 pmZ – Guess the quote and then it’s beer thirty
“Window or aisle, boys? Yeah, we’re in deep shit!”
May 9th, 2008 at 2:38 pmI will not google it. sounds like nickleson
May 9th, 2008 at 2:39 pmbecoming more interested in that high yield name EVEP for the kid’s account. Buy, hold, get paid (a lot) to wait.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:40 pm2nd quote
“It will be nice working with proper villains again!”
May 9th, 2008 at 2:40 pmZ – Take a look at COSWF for the kid. With WTI at these prices the yield will be 5 bones before it’s over. I think it’s still a buy here.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:41 pmThird quote
“You gotta walk before you crawl.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:42 pmReverse that.”
thanks, will add to the list of yield names.
Oceans 11
May 9th, 2008 at 2:43 pmYep
May 9th, 2008 at 2:44 pmDistillate just blew out the top today, up 4% vs crude up 2%. Big beneficiaries there would be:
SUN
May 9th, 2008 at 2:44 pmVLO
FTO
Tini time for me! Have a good weekend!
May 9th, 2008 at 2:45 pmSam:
May 9th, 2008 at 2:46 pmOcean’s 11. Easy
apbd
CNBC story on now about fixed option payout product. I ‘ve looked into it before, kinda scary and limits upside.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:46 pmFracs vary in size, usually a function of depth to the horsepower required. A tractor trailer pump is avg 2200 HHP. There will be about 8 on a Barnett job. The pumps take fluid in low pressure and pump it down the well 60 bbl/min (42 gal/bbl). In the Barnett, this would be @ 3000 psi (about 5500 feet depth from surface). The fluid under pressure will open the rock up and gain length from the well. Proppant is placed in the fracture so that the rock does not close and provides a permeable path of the fluids to return to the wellbore. Think of the frac as the autobahn with a lot of feeder roads.
A simo frac is 2 wells side by side (500-1000 feet) fraced together. Somtimes you hear of a zipper frac, 2 wells and you go back and forth, like a zipper. Sometimes it is more than 2, heard EOG did one with 4 wellbores.
I can go on, been doing this for over 20 years.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:46 pmFRAC
A stimulation treatment routinely performed on oil and gas wells in low-permeability reservoirs. Specially engineered fluids are pumped at high pressure and rate into the reservoir interval to be treated, causing a vertical fracture to open. The wings of the fracture extend away from the wellbore in opposing directions according to the natural stresses within the formation. Proppant, such as grains of sand of a particular size, is mixed with the treatment fluid to keep the fracture open when the treatment is complete. Hydraulic fracturing creates high-conductivity communication with a large area of formation and bypasses any damage that may exist in the near-wellbore area.
SLB good, open source oilfield dictionary.
http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Display.cfm?Term=hydraulic%20fracturing
May 9th, 2008 at 2:46 pmHAL, PQ, NFX, PBR, PQ?
May 9th, 2008 at 2:50 pmFluids: In the Barnett, fresh water, pretty cheap; might pump 15k bbl per stage 5 or 6 stages per well. Big issues with this much.
Crosslinked fluids, take a polymer and add a metal ion (borate most common)to creat a super viscous fluid to keep the frac open while carrying the proppant out the frac.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:51 pmCLR should be close to the top of the IBD 100 list this wk-end its IBD #’s are 99 and 99.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:52 pmThanks Wyoming and all. I would love to hear more of the sort on some slow days. I hope everyone did as least as well as I this week.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:01 pmRam – what’s question on 170?
Wyoming – thanks very much.
Popeye – yeah, very close to my 2008 high. Lots of fun but I am raising cash as a % of total assets a bit.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:10 pmThe MAY’s of those and their possible termination. Mute point now – for Monday. Now you get to drink the whole bottle of wine!
May 9th, 2008 at 3:16 pmOh, congrats on the new seismo. You’ll have to do 4D (time)now that you ran the baseline….
May 9th, 2008 at 3:16 pmZ – Trader Vic looks good & it does have the section you mentioned. Ordering it now …
May 9th, 2008 at 3:23 pmZ
May 9th, 2008 at 3:46 pmJust opened the blog.
Congrats on the seismic results. Are you polling the subscribers on the name.
Have a great weekend
Z- May I suggest the name Zachary
May 9th, 2008 at 3:53 pmwife already rejected all Z names: zach, zeke, zane
May 9th, 2008 at 3:55 pmThought double Zachary=ZZ had a nice ring to it except on further reflection his nickname would be SLEEPY
May 9th, 2008 at 4:17 pmCramer says he struck out by not recommending CLR. Did not like the price @$21.50 loves it now@$50.”Wait for a pullback & buy”.
May 9th, 2008 at 5:45 pmcongrats Z on the second??? mini Z!!!!
your little girl is darling an sure this new addition will bring you and mrs. Z great happiness!!
sold my hk calls at 330, and am holding my DVN’s & BTU’s a little longer…. VLO took our ultra strong support today…. i say it has room to fall from here no matter what its multiple is..
May 9th, 2008 at 6:14 pmThanks T, yep Z2
Nice trades, wish I had just bit on the BTU back when I said enough was enough when it was high $40s. ug.
Re the refiners, numbers still coming down in the space so yeah, they are not as cheap as they look.
May 10th, 2008 at 10:07 amreal roulette making
…
November 22nd, 2014 at 11:32 pm