04
Apr
TGIF
Not a lot of news on the energy front this morning. Two weeks to expiration so I'll be starting to look at rolling out of some April calls on expected strength today after the lousy job report which is good news oil (as the dollar weakens), for the stock market (as it insures more rate cuts) but bad if you're one of the victims with no job. Also, starting to today but really more earnestly next week, I'll be refining my May call positions for stocks I want to be long (or short) as 1Q08 reports go out. If I don't talk to you in comments have a great Friday and weekend.
Commodity Watch:
- Crude Oil: fell $1.00 to $103.83 yesterday. This morning oil is trading up $1.50-ish after a little dollar based waffling around the jobs report. The dollar finally decided to keel over and oil is running now.
- Nigeria Watch #1: MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Nigerian Delta) rebel leader Henry Okah has been charged with treason and gun running and if convicted he could get the death penalty. Look for MEND to start stirring up more than the usual amount of trouble soon.
- Nigeria Watch #2: Shell said it extinguished the two pipeline fires in the Port Harcourt area and that exports were not affected during the blazes.
- Natural Gas: fell $0.41 to $9.41 yesterday on an in line gas storage report. This morning gas is trading $0.05 to $0.10 higher (its off before oil started to rally this a.m.) but I expect it to make a test of $9 in the very near future which should yield a price of around $43.50 on (UNG) where I still hold the $45 April puts. I'm not the only one seeing excess supply this Spring as I have a Simmons & Co report on my desk sent over by a friend of the site (thanks) detailing potential near term weakness for natural gas prices based on incremental supply relative to smaller volume losses on the imports front. I don't see a BTU linkage argument between oil and gas holding much sway at this time and I think that the subsidence of cold weather will yield gas prices in the mid to lower $8s in the near term as that incremental supply allows an abnormally swift rebuild of storage.
Holdings Watch:
- DVN - Out DVN May $105 Calls, up 42% in a day. Went up faster than I thought and I plan to trade back into it on weakness.
- CHK - Added April $45 calls for $2.00 after the JP Morgan downgrade. More on that over the weekend but suffice it to say I think the analyst is off base here.
Stocks We Care About Today:
Dry Bulks Finding A Bottom As Day Rates Stabilize & U.S. Market Tries To Hold Its Ground. I've taken a hiatus of late from the Dry Bulk transport sector after a disappoint February / March period in which an expected recovery in rates did not yield a sustained trade higher in the stocks. I am contemplating re-entry as estimates have continued to rise and we're approaching another earnings season where numbers should be very strong. I also would expect to see further consolidation news here soon.
The change table above is dated from my last update on the sector and just looking at both the stock price numbers and the downward 2009 earnings revisions you can see there has been little to cheer about since then. I think the reduction in estimates for 2009 (which is reflective of a potential/perceived glut in capacity as well as an uncertain global economic backdrop) is healthy. Those estimates got pretty frothy last year as day rates soared yet, as day rates started falling in October, analysts dragged their feet in cutting numbers. Present rates look like this which is a kind of a "jury's still out" kind of chart.
Not surprisingly, an of the bigger players in the group (see below) looks strikingly like those of rates seen in the link above. Anyway, just a heads up that I may be trading these a little more actively soon.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch: FBR upped their (PXD) price target from $60 to $65.
ZContest For HK Acquisition: Subscribers occasionally get a free ride. Pick the acquiring company of Petrohawlk (HK) and get a free month of Zman. Stipulations are one "guess" per customer, (HK) must be acquired within the calendar year of 2008 (just trying to limit my liability here), you must of course already be a subscriber, and your pick needs to be sent along in the comments section of the site (no emails please as we try to live in the land of transparency around here). Here's the list so far:
8:43 am EST
Nymex Crude Jumps After Steep US Jobs Drop
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
[Dow Jones] Nymex crude futures jump, after earlier trading up about 80c, after US non-farm payrolls dropped more than expected in Mar. The 80,000 drop in non-farm payrolls was larger than the 50,000 decrease expected. Still, “extremely choppy trading conditions are likely to persist regardless of today’s employment data and associated response by the US dollar,” analyst Jim Ritterbusch wrote before the Labor Department’s employment release. Nymex May crude +$1.28 at $105.11/bbl. (greg.meyer@dowjones.com)
Reported Earlier:
LONDON — Nymex light, sweet crude oil futures climbed more than a dollar in London trade Friday, ahead of much anticipated U.S. jobs data that is expected to steer moves in the U.S. dollar and offer further indications on the health of the U.S.economy.
Amid light trade, prices were helped higher by a combination of a slight decline in the greenback against a number of major currencies, and traders adjusting their positions ahead of March U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data, due for release at 1230 GMT Friday.
“The nonfarm payroll figures…will as always have an initial effect on the market and could give direction into the end of the week. In addition to this, position squaring ahead of the weekend will play a part,” said Andy Riddell, energy broker at ODL Securities in London.
At 1101 GMT, the front-month May Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was up 86 cents at $103.38 a barrel.
The front-month May light, sweet, crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.01 higher at $104.84 a barrel.
The ICE’s gasoil contract for April delivery was down $1 at $955.75 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for May delivery was up 37 points at 272.80 cents a gallon.
This week’s crude price volatility owes much to market participants taking differing views on the implications of a weaker U.S. dollar, some suggested Friday — namely whether the faltering greenback should be seen as a reason to buy crude or whether the slowing economic growth contributing to the dollar’s decline serves as a warning of shrinking oil demand.
Friday’s employment snapshot is likely to sponsor another bout of choppy trade, some said.
“Should we get a larger-than-expected decline in payrolls, the dollar could weaken and energy prices could receive a boost in the process,” said Edward Meir, analyst at MF Global in New York. “However, it is also possible that markets will interpret a sharp drop as a sign that we are well on our way into recession, in which case oil prices have more room to fall.
“It seems short-term oil traders have their work cut out for them as they try to decide which way this particular ball will bounce,” Meir said.
The median estimate of a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 13 economists predicts nonfarm jobs decreased by 50,000 last month, while the jobless rate is seen to have risen to 5.0% from 4.8%.
While fears of a recession in the U.S., and its potential for trimming demand for oil, weighs on some investors minds, robust consumption of crude in other parts of the world, primarily non-OECD nations, will likely keep prices supported, some analysts said.
“Oil prices (are) well-poised to hold up well even in the event of a turn in sentiment,” said analysts at Barclays Capital. “The key dynamics of the market remain largely unchanged, with the global oil balances continuing to look tight, owing to persisting sluggish production growth and steady demand increases.”
Royal Dutch Shell PLC said Friday a section on one of its Nigerian oil pipelines had been repaired following a fire. The fire, which broke out on a line feeding the Bonny oil export terminal on March 30, didn’t disrupt pipeline flows or exports, Shell said.
—By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires
April 4th, 2008 at 8:29 amUop – I’m waiting for oil and heating oil to settle in today…they are dragging NG higher as per the post, then I take my first addition to the UNG puts.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:31 amWow HK – may kill the remaining April 20s on this morning pop.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:32 amZ – er… any reason for the pop in HK?
April 4th, 2008 at 8:40 amMorning D – no, strong group. small volume at 20.40 before the open, may a positive broker comment causing that but nothing I’ve seen and there is of course no news.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:43 amZTRADE: Entered UNG $44 APRIL Puts (UNGPS) for $0.75.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:44 amMy SU and SU calls just quietly inching higher, day by day, was going to sell, still may of course but chart starting to look like triple digits are back for a bit and it could go $110 easily.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:47 amZ: I assume you didn’t get filled yet as the option hasn’t traded that low today.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:49 amDo I have that right?
Or did you have the wrong symbol
April 4th, 2008 at 8:51 amUNGPR, the $44s at $0.75, holding it and the UNGPS.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:58 amZTRADE: Out the second half of the HK April $20s for $1.00, up 100%. Continuing to hold the April $17.50s and the May $20 calls.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:01 amWhat about the JAG rumor?
April 4th, 2008 at 9:02 amjag?
April 4th, 2008 at 9:02 am9:39 am EST
Nymex Crude Rises After Jobs Data Hit Dollar
By Gregory Meyer
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Oil futures gained on a weaker-than-expected jobs report released Friday, buoyed by the pressure it put on the dollar.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery was recently up $1.51, or 1.5%, at $105.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was trading up about 80 cents before the Labor Department released data showing non-farm payrolls fell by 80,000 in March, the biggest decline in five years and more than the 50,000 decline economists expected.
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was trading up $1.28 to $103.80 a barrel.
The much-anticipated jobs report was consistent with forecasts that the U.S. is experiencing a sharp pullback in economic growth in the first half of the year. While oil demand in the world’s largest energy consumer has slowed correspondingly, oil prices haven’t.
Many analysts believe that’s partly because weak economic data has hastened the decline of the dollar, whose weakness sustains the purchasing power of oil consumers using other currencies, and prods oil exporters to adjust prices upward for the dollar-denominated commodity.
The euro was $1.5775 after the Labor Department’s jobs report, up from $1.5669 late Thursday.
“There’s a conflict going on within oil,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. “It can’t decide whether to follow the dollar or whether to move lower as a result of an economic downturn and inhibited petroleum demand.”
Early data from the Energy Information Administration suggest U.S. oil demand in the first quarter fell by nearly 475,000 barrels a day from a year ago. If confirmed, it would be the biggest decline in any quarter since the drop in the fourth quarter of 2001 that followed the attacks of 9/11.
In testimony before Congress this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said U.S. economic growth is unlikely to grow much over the first half of the year, and may contract. He said he expects global growth and demand for commodities will slow.
At the same, a gloomier employment picture increases the likelihood the Federal Reserve will again cut its benchmark interest rate when its monetary policy committee meets at the end of April. The unemployment rate also rose 0.3 percentage point to to 5.1% last month.
“With a terrible jobs report like this, given the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and supporting employment growth, it’s a pretty good signal for them to cut interest rates,” said Brad Samples, an analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky. “That’s going to be bearish for the dollar and thus bullish for oil.”
Front-month May reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 1.79 cents, or 0.7% to $2.7422 a gallon. May heating oil rose 5.13 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.9741 a gallon.
—By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires
April 4th, 2008 at 9:04 amSee RIG&FSLR run run run
April 4th, 2008 at 9:05 amLooks like some hot money is moving into NOV
April 4th, 2008 at 9:05 amnbr shooting. what happened?
April 4th, 2008 at 9:06 amShould have added holding the june HK 22.50s as well. I try to get these out as fast as possible with a few notes.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:07 amreumor on JAG notes that CHK will be buying HK, doesn’t seem to have had much effect so far on either one
April 4th, 2008 at 9:07 amjimmyo – NBR had a great day yesterday, not so much today, just think people are getting long gas capex ramp story components.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:08 amRe #19 – I like that rumor…gets me a free month with Z!
April 4th, 2008 at 9:11 amEl – oh, I don’t get the Jag notes but I think I started that rumor, lol. Can’t see how CHK gets that done.
See post here:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2008/03/24/chesapeake-announces-8-new-shale-plays/
April 4th, 2008 at 9:11 amya know speaking of that, not everyone has entered the contest, not everyone by a long shot. I’ve got the list and will post to the bottom of today’s post in a second.
HK in all time high territory…I would not give CHK much chance of doing it at all. CHK stock up says its not real either and the JPM analyst would have company on the capital lack of discipline angle if they did it. So far he’s a lone wolf.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:15 amContest picks posted on the bottom of the site.
Oil up $2, natural gas barely holding up $0.06. Pretty comfy with my NG short here … if oil were flat gas would be getting clobbered.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:22 amZ:
did not understand CHK comment:
I have CHK stock and options,
are you bearish now on CHK ?
April 4th, 2008 at 9:24 amwow HAL … w/o me now. 🙁
wow HK: up $0.80 at 20.84
Uop – No, not at all, just saying if they were the ones to buy HK it would be unpopular.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:28 amScoop – yeah, I see them + coals moving as well…can’t kiss all the girls.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:30 amZ:
April 4th, 2008 at 9:36 amwhat have you done with HK options: sold any,, if so why ?
Uop – see #11. 100% gain is enough for me on an option with 10 days of life left after today, especially one that just came into the money on big move up. I’ve got some April 17.50s I’m holding plus May and June and I may add to the longer dated ones but only if it comes of these highs. Hopefully well news here next week but they may hold off for the earnings report.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:41 amHK- maybe the buyout has begun….
April 4th, 2008 at 9:50 amz, don’t get to follow all the time did u happen to ask if anyone knew how far away chk hz well is from hk’s field. does anybody know if hk holds deep rights @ elm and terry
April 4th, 2008 at 9:57 amCorrection to #16: turns out there is a headline for NOV:
“National Oilwell Varco, Inc. Announces Early Tender Results of Its Pending Exchange Offer Relating to 6 1/8% Senior Notes Due 2015 Issued by Grant Prideco, Inc.”
Guess the market took that as a sign the deal will go thru soon, even though the “offer” referred to will lapse if the deal lapses.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:58 amTex – I have not learned how far away yet.
They have 50,000 acres (as per Jefco report) in the deep rights at Elm, don’t know about at Terryville
April 4th, 2008 at 9:58 am100k+ buy on HK just went thru.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:01 amsomebody just bt 120,000 shares @20.98. what kind of target price on take out
April 4th, 2008 at 10:02 amProbably $30 but they could argue higher.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:03 ambidding June $22.50 calls HK
April 4th, 2008 at 10:07 amhk, last couple of days option action has picked up considerably. yesterday someone did a 2442/2442 buy jun 20 & sell jun 22.5.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:09 amZTRADE: Tripled down on my June $22.50 HK call (HKFX) position for $1.35.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:11 amHoldings page and holdings wiki page updated.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:27 amhk 50k floor trade
April 4th, 2008 at 10:30 amwonder if sam could update us on the short interest in hk
April 4th, 2008 at 10:34 amTex – yep, lotta interest here. One thing I never ever do is kick myself over a profitable trade … but if I did, then I’d say to myself, “self, those HKDDs you punted this morning for a buck are now bid $1.50, ” Tough market of late.
HK short interest: I show 9.58%, 18.6 mm shares.
April 4th, 2008 at 10:36 amCNBC showing a SU mine
April 4th, 2008 at 10:43 amZ-Re#43 would buying call options be a good stratergy for the shorts
April 4th, 2008 at 10:59 amyep
April 4th, 2008 at 11:00 amZ- Do you have any ceiling valuations for APA&RIG
April 4th, 2008 at 11:05 amScoop – not really no. Hoping for a pullback in APA so I can play again. Run’s been strong so it should happen soon.
RIG could go much higher this year…still very cheap…the one thing you hear over and over again is project delays but no one giving up rigs … this leads to flattening of rate acceleration which may be what’s weighed on the stock, along with the fact that everyone was sure $100 oil would not last, until it stayed up here for a month which it now has. Chart breaking out right now.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:09 amMerger monday phenom may see HK run into the close.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:10 amCHK above level JPM downgraded it at. His argument for the downgrade is thin and his language is inflammatory. Ego + Vendetta = bad analysis.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:18 amTex – Here is a good site on short interest.
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=hk&submit=Short+Quote%99
April 4th, 2008 at 11:20 amNBR confirming breakout today.
Ya know, later half of the week has been poor for some time now. For a Friday, this one does not stink.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:20 amfrom JAGfn rumors- CHK to by HK for $35/share
April 4th, 2008 at 11:22 amReef – I don’t see CHK doing it … the overlap makes since but CHK’s currency (it’s stock) is undervalued. HK’s is not. So you have a nice overlapping pick up on reserves but a dilutive deal, especially at a $35.
I think HK goes, but not that soon (although who knows really) and to someone else.
Sam – thanks for the short squeeze site. Those numbers concur with my trading system’s so they are pretty timely. I added the link “short squeeze” to the blogroll at upper right.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:25 amZ:
April 4th, 2008 at 11:26 amplease: what do you mean by49?
Z:
April 4th, 2008 at 11:28 ami see WFT doing well, what is your Opinion??
Meaning of: “Merger monday phenom may see HK run into the close.”
Mondays typically see more M&A activity than any other day of the week. Rumor is HK will be taken out by CHK on Monday. I personally doubt it (see 54) but end of day could see more people buying just in case. Of course, no merger on Monday and you’ll need fresh additions to the rumor to keep HK going … or well news.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:29 amRe WFT – how do you mean doing well? Operations or the stock? The oil service stocks are uniformly green today and WFT is on the bottom end of today’s performance range of 1 to 5% moves.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:32 amDRYS $3+ swing, looking more and more like a breakout.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:33 amPQ cresting $19 …. ugggg, can’t believe did the work and still missed it. moron.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:33 amMoron is up there with stupid. Not in your class. You always come out swinging regardless of recent doom – you don’t give up. Moron is not you.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:37 amZ:
April 4th, 2008 at 11:40 am58
that is my point,
WFt stock not participating at this rally
ram – yeah, I know…just part of a humility program I installed to prevent JP Morgan style hubris. ty
NBR on the Move.
Deutsche Bank taking XCO to trading buy based on Haynesville / Marcellus exposure. Stock completely broken out. This kind of thing is very good for HK.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:41 amuop – oh, ok, will have a look re valuation and get back.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:41 am#54- Z-I didn’t pick CHK, i just started HK acquisition last week.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:43 am#60- I think PQ is getting gobbled. Now I think this guess might deserve a free month of z-mann—How about DVN?
Z – HK, something on “First call” but I don’t have access.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:43 amReef – yeah, you’ve got Shell for HK. Would they even notice if they acquired them? lol
April 4th, 2008 at 11:45 amSam – thanks – I see it too and same, I get the little N next to the ticker but not that firm. Gotta get the sub count up around here to pay for full FC access.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:46 amz- just having fun and leaving the real picks to the young guys
April 4th, 2008 at 11:48 amWFT probably not up as much as its a little more expensive and has already had a good run …. HAL is cheaper and SLB has been beat up. It probably goes higher with the group but I wouldn’t pick it over HAL, maybe over BJS though.
NBR super cheap and easing on up.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:48 amreef – And I was just going to say that I’m really not sure what info would be worth a free month on the site. young guys? not me my friend…I just age well. Man you can tell its Friday.
The Simmons report I read AFTER I posted my stuff said all the same stuff I was saying in last night’s post but with details on demand as well. They are: 1) very smart guys and 2) expecting gas softness.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:51 amz & sam thx for short site. i went for sep ops to give it some time if neccessary
April 4th, 2008 at 11:54 amTex – nice idea but the Fed will have bought them out by then. Hopefully not for $2.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:59 amHK – First call is reporting a report out by Jefferies on the overall health of HK. Also reporting rumors on a takeout with no names attached.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:59 amSam – thanks … I have a lot of respect for those Jefco guys.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:59 amwow FSLR, that’s just unreal. The fall from grace will not be pretty. 111x ’08 eps, 55x ’09, 36x 2010 numbers. that’s rich.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:05 pmZ;
is the contest for predicting HK takeover still open?
can there be only a name once in the contest ?
April 4th, 2008 at 12:13 pmuop – its open, no ties, first come, first serve.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:14 pmI just got back. Can I take CHK in the contest? hah,hah.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:21 pmapbd
Hope the vacation was a good one A! Sorry, Jason beat you to it.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:22 pmHi apbd…I’ll trade you CHK for the vacation you just went on.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:36 pmZ MEE +21% too much too soon?
April 4th, 2008 at 12:36 pmZTRADE: Sold Half NBR $35 April calls for $1.25, up 117% to average cost of 2 entries on 3/31. Time to play with house money.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:36 pmRE MEE Seems a bit steep. BTU up $10 since I wrote about getting back long the group last week…oops.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:38 pmZ – those FSLR Jn 230 puts look tempting
April 4th, 2008 at 12:45 pmHey K – they do indeed … like them a little better than the 240s for the same dough. I’ve got brainlock on the group right now so I won’t trouble my Friday by thinking about it.
What’s the econ calendar look like next week, anything to stall the broad mkt rally?
Look at SM … not a good option trader but getting ignored and its in the same hot plays Woodford, Elm Grove (could be Haynesville non operated for them). Cheap and I have not done a lot of work in a long time on these guys but sort of interesting.
April 4th, 2008 at 12:51 pmahhh soooo, NG tripping break even on the day with oil up $1.90. smells like a little train wreck coming 😉
April 4th, 2008 at 12:53 pmcouldn’t pass em up
April 4th, 2008 at 1:00 pmWill a possible train wreck weaken the gassy guys – severely?
April 4th, 2008 at 1:03 pmJason:
April 4th, 2008 at 1:07 pmDo you call it a vacation when you go away with your wife? hah, hah.
apbd
Ram – trainwreck for the guy who sold me the put. For NG I’m thinking mid $8s … that might ding the group a little in front of earnings which is why I’m cheap, hedged names.
Bob Pisani actually said, “volume’s on the light side, let’s not talk about that” the story is the rally. Lame.
NG down 2 pennies with oil up 1.80. Just making myself little notes here.
K – that’s gunslinger! Good luck.
A – for shame, lol. and no.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:08 pmAnybody who hasn’t picked HK speak up, I’ll post a new list after the close. Ya never know, Monday may be too late.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:10 pmNG down a 12 cents, oil up $1.60.
UNG through $45 now.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:16 pmHK:
April 4th, 2008 at 1:19 pmwhat is best one to pick, stock, option, which strike and month
Uop – I took the HKFX most recently.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:22 pmWell, Z, since youre twisting my arm after I already said I didn’t have a clue, I’m going for counterintuitive: PQ for HK.
It may not make any sense, but it would be funny 🙂
April 4th, 2008 at 1:22 pmDman – ok if you want but they’re about 1/5th the size HK based on TEV.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:24 pmsm- I like people that pay me 12,000/net acre!! Thank you Mr. Best
April 4th, 2008 at 1:27 pmZ – re #97: that’s why I thought it would be funny. Kind of in a man-bites-dog sort of way.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:28 pmReef – I was just going to email you but since you are in here you have any thoughts on these guys. Sounds like they typically overpay for acres looking at their F&D but I haven’t dug into the numbers enough to judge.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:29 pmD – YOU get a free quarter if that happens.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:29 pmzman, NFX for contest. NFX has same cheap “currency” issue as CHK but thought i would throw it out there.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:30 pmS – like a merger of equals, nice overlap, good management on both sides, I’m guessing NFX would remain in charge and HK guys would go do it again somewhere else with the money. Not bad. I think it will be a bigger E&P but I’m not eligible and that would make a fine company.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:34 pmZ – # 101. You mind-reader!! I was thinking after #99 that if you back a really long-odds horse, you oughta get the benefit of the odds..
April 4th, 2008 at 1:40 pmwant a Friday big gain or 0 trade? April HK $25 calls for $0.20. I toyed with $0.10 when it was 0.05 X 0.20. That brought in other $0.10s but no sellers. Then went to $0.15 … nothing doin. If its $35 offer that’s a $10 call bought for $0.20…talk about Mad Money.
By the way, bidding low in between is a good way to trick the bid up and sell a position you have. Say I held those options and wanted to get $0.10 for them. I go in to buy more and someone else comes up to sit with me on the bid. Pretty common occurrence when you split the B/A. I then cancel my order and hit his bid. I’m out and he’s suddenly long and wondering what just happened.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:50 pmOil closed up about $2.30 to $106.20
NG closed down 0.09 to 9.32.
Dman – yeah, seemed fair. No offense to PQ but that’s like a greyhound on the horse track.
WILDZ – May 25s for $0.55. Pretty risky
April 4th, 2008 at 1:56 pmZ- took May $25@.45 this am
April 4th, 2008 at 1:56 pmScoop – took me a little longer to spine up for that.
April 4th, 2008 at 1:57 pmPut me down for CHK buying Winchester Production
JR
April 4th, 2008 at 2:01 pmDo you choose “all or none” when you can, or is that a deterent to filling a large quantity?
April 4th, 2008 at 2:11 pmPQ may 20- for a buck
April 4th, 2008 at 2:13 pmRam – I do not choose that and sometimes I get only partials for not doing so but yes, it almost has to limit you somewhat as well if you click it.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:17 pmDo people still have an interest in having a spot on the site where they could put their holdings, picks in a quick format like the wiki page… ie, you could go there and see Reef’s got the PQ may 20’s?
Just thinking about a new site feature and it has been suggested in the past.
Also, autodialer notification of ZBLASTs has been suggested. I’d need to check into that one a little more but I could see sending the trades to your phone along with some elevator music in the background.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:20 pmHK at new HOD – looks like at least a brief “don’t miss out on merger Monday” end of day rally in progress.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:30 pmAfternoon all.
A brief update on wti. The bearish count is on the ropes. Fundamentally it seems incredible to me that with a build of over 7 million this week they can run crude up $8 in 48 hours!
There are two bearish and one bullish possibilities. The first bearish count is the one I mentioned the other day which has us in ii up before a big fall. It is still in play until a move above 108.22. The second bearish count is that wave iv is playing out as a triangle and we are in the d part up with e down to come which should take us to about 101. Again for this count to play out it needs to turn down very soon. The dollar also looks to be playing out as a triangle so this is a distinct possibility. The bullish count says we are already in v up and if so we should be on our way to new highs in short order and no doubt if we are we are going to see some big divergences.
Nat gas – chart to me had looked bullish but again it needs to turn up in short order if this is going to play out. If not it is a possibility that the high made earlier this week was a truncated (i)of v and ended at 10.210. A move below 8.750 would confirm this.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:30 pmZ- Has anyone chosen STR for the contest?
April 4th, 2008 at 2:30 pmAfter Nicky!
Cattle – No, no one has taken Questar. Will put you down for it. Not a bad thought either.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:32 pmRule change: Make that a free quarter for the winner.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:33 pmThanks for the thoughts on #112. If not a take out of HK, certainly a classic short squeeze. It should last a couple of days on that alone.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:35 pmZ;
113, YES
April 4th, 2008 at 2:36 pmDow Jones reporting heavy option interest in HK on takeover talk. Interest in mainly $22.50 in April and May expires. HK has no comment. Also a Reuters story, but I don’t have access.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:39 pmRefiners red across the board today. Gasoline just couldn’t keep up with oil.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:39 pmB-1 bomber down in the Middle East.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:42 pmHello Nicky. S&P just treading water last couple of days. S&P 1380 needs to be taken out to extend rally?
April 4th, 2008 at 2:47 pmWOW The Clinton’s reported income of $109 million for years 2000-2007. Wonder how much income they wrote off as “legitimate” business expenses
April 4th, 2008 at 2:57 pmScoop – We should tax those windfall speaking profits. I want to take those Speaking Profits and put them into a fund to sponsor research into smaller government
April 4th, 2008 at 3:00 pmBeer Thirty – Have a great weekend gang!
April 4th, 2008 at 3:04 pm#126 Great Idea
April 4th, 2008 at 3:22 pmDon’t know if it means anything, but AH shows $29 ask for HK
April 4th, 2008 at 3:49 pmNever mind, just went back to $22
April 4th, 2008 at 3:51 pm