03
Apr

Thursday Night Gas Review + NG Supply Update Slideshow

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Commodity Watch:

Natural Gas closed down $0.445 at $9.387 after the EIA reported a withdrawal from gas storage of 29 Bcf. The withdrawal was essentially in line with Street consensus of 32 Bcf and is likely to be the last withdrawal of the season as heating degree days are set to tumble this week. I continue to hold (UNG) puts.

  • The producing region saw a second week of injections to storage ... Hello Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas production (Barnett, Woodford, Fayetteville Shales)! Obviously this isn't all of the story but it played a big part
  • The Western storage region saw a 1 Bcf draw down.
  • Storage in the East fell 32 Bcf due to lingering early Spring cold.

The Gas Table:

gas-table-032808.jpg

 

gas-graphs-032808.jpg

Near Term Storage Comps from 2007: This should provide an opportunity for natural gas to bottom the YoY chart storage comparison chart above.

ng-easy-comps-040308.jpg

Brief Update of Marketed Gas Production By State and Region:  What follows is the monthly slide show breaking out gas production by State. In a nutshell, production is running 4.1 Bcfgpd (8%) higher than year ago levels with the majority of the gains coming from Texas, Wyoming, and Oklahoma followed by smaller volume gains coming from the "other states" - states not traditional known as big gas country like Arkansas. This 4.1 Bdfgpd number may in fact be light to reality as January figures for Texas and the Gulf of Mexico appear a little suspect. If you assume LNG runs 2,0 Bcfgpd less than year ago levels this still leaves and extra 14 Bcf each week to jam into storage.

ng-supply-by-state-040308.jpg

ng-supply-summary-jan08-040308.jpg

16 Responses to “Thursday Night Gas Review + NG Supply Update Slideshow”

  1. 1
    reefguy Says:

    z- bravo! that is a great summary. The curve growth in Texas is mind boggling. Think lower gas prices for sure, but how low? Can it go 18/1 gas to oil price ratio? $6.25 to $100 oil? I do not think I have ever seen it at 20/1. I wonder…could low natural gas prices drag down domestic oil prices? Hasn’t all the fuel switching been done? Can coal plants be refired to burn the cheap gas?

  2. 2
    PackMan Says:

    Z – st price target for UNG (next 2 weeks).?

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Pman – I think a test of 9 in the next week (that’s probably 43.50 on UNG), maybe 8.50 is in the cards is in the next 2 weeks (41ish UNG) . Could be a 2 day trip to 8.50 but probably takes a little longer. Monday could see a minor, fleeting rally as they take the HDD forecast up slightly for actuals but the next week should be a double, not triple digit HDD forecast.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Lot of tornadoes and power outages around these parts…if I’m not around in the early morning you know why.

  5. 5
    uop Says:

    Z:
    most interesting report and I learned a lot about NG and where.

    UNG at 45.4, still worth to get puts.

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