Friday Wrap – It’s Great To Back But TGIF!

What A Day (Week). It's great to be back! I had thought to start rebuilding the portfolio as soon as I got back but have spent the week catching up on news and doing a little light, but successful, trading. Look for some macro pieces and more company specific reports in coming weeks now that I've got my head back in the game.

  • Oil Breached The $70 Mark But Couldn't Hold It. The August contract - link to chart- hit a high of $70.52 before failing falling back to close up $0.60 on the day at $69.56. Can somebody send me a link showing recent data for OECD inventories? The press keeps citing them as low but the most recent data the EIA has is from February.
  • Gasoline Had A Mediocre Day, Down For The Week. August RBOB - link to chart - closed up less than a penny to just shy of $2.21. Why point out the daily moves? Filler? No, to point out the divergence between the crude chart (which is breaking out to new highs) and the gasoline chart (which looks to be forming a double top as production mounts and demand slows).  That has a nasty impact on crack spreads. Click here for a look at the resent trends in cracks.
  • Natural Gas Got Pummeled. The 99 Bcf was above the top end of range and sent the August and out month contracts spiralling lower. More on natural gas below.

Holdings Watch: Volatility has yielded shorter periods than is typical for my trading. If you make 30 to 50% in a day why wait to sell when you would have been happy over the same return in a month. It pays to be nimble.


  • (HAL) Sold the $35 July Calls upon seeing the over large injection for $0.90 for 64% gain in just under 24 hours. Sick what that would annualize out to!


  • (SWN) Bought a 2x position in the July $45s for $1.10. Strictly a trade as this is one of my favorite gassy stocks but it's leverage to natural gas and the liquidity of its options make it a perenial favorite trade of mine around the gas report. Last bid $1.65.
  • (TSO) Enough was enough. Crack spreads are going to log their 7th week of declines out of the last eight weeks. I took an opener in the July $60s for $3.20. Last bid $3.80.

STOCKS:  No Action.Natural Gas Report Review

In a nutshell: Gas Inventories Are Now 19% Above The Five Year Average, But Only 4% Below Year Ago Levels.

  • Storage through June 22, 2007: 2,443 Bcf (updated June 28, 2007).
  • Max storage for this week in history: 2,542 Bcf (2006). At present gas storage is at it’s 2nd highest level in history for this date.
  • We are now down only 4% (99 Bcf) relative to year ago storage levels. Due to the larger injection this past week relative to the year ago comparable week we cut the YoY deficit by another 1% (see chart below entitled "Year over Year Deficit Not So Slowly Ebbing Away). As you can see in the chart, the YoY deficit has fallen pretty sharply from its early March peak when it stood at a bulging 17%.
  • We are now 19% (382 Bcf) above the 5 year average which includes 2006’s record levels (see third chart below).

Looking Ahead:

Here’s some quick stats for the period running from the end of the second week in May through the end of October (the traditional end of the injection season).


As you can see in the table, average injections from now through the end of the traditional injection season get us to very comfortable levels of storage. Even the minimum level of injections, which occurred last year and is therefore in both the 3 and 10 year scenarios gets us to a quite comfortable level just under 3.3 Tcf which by historic standards is “full”.

Two weeks ago I said I don’t see gas trading much below $7 anytime soon. In the interim, NOAA’s assessment of La Nina as a “no show”, at least until November, greatly altered  sentiment. Without the support that the “active hurricane season” crowd had lent to gas and in the absence of real early summer heat, the supply / demand equation has taken temporary sway over prices. Given the shift in sentiment I’m altering my pre-hurricane summer gas forecast to a trading range of $6.50 to $7.50 this summer.

At a present August contract price of $6.69 I think we’re very close to the bottom. Why?

  • Much of the country’s growth in gas production has come from the shale plays of which a few start to reach marginal status at $6.50 increasing towards a majority between $5 and $5.50. Consider the growth in Texas volumes:


  • That hockey stick of a production profile is the result of a horizontal rig count that has gone through the roof. Note that the rigs here represent the preponderance of growth in the US rig count. The manpower to operate these rigs is stretched to the limit and as such service costs have a way of running in only one direction
  • The record short interest on the part of the non-commercials will be supportive of prices but apparently only once covering is induced by either sharply lower injections or a storm.

Where we are now:


Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (CRZO) cut to market perform at BMO. This could set the stage for an entry point.

EIA Watch: April Data Shows U.S. Natural Gas Volumes Up 0.1 Bcfgpd From March. The June Natural Gas Monthly with data for April was released a day early. I'll have a supply piece out on Sunday but the long and short of it is the U.S. continues to produce 54 Bcfgpd (up 1.3 Bcfgpd relative to year ago levels) with Texas accounting for the majority of that growth running roughly a Bcfgpd ahead of April 2006 at 16.1 Bcfgpd (30% of total).

Putin & Hugo Watch: Chavez flew to Moscow to discuss increase opportunities for Russian investment in Venezuela's suddenly capital starved energy environment. Early plans call for Russian participation in the production of natural gas pipeline linking Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The two leaders then discussed plans for Russia to hold a meeting next year regarding the proposed Gas OPEC which Putin either supports or is against depending on the time of the month and day of the week he's asked. Comment: Since neither one of these guys has a reputation for standing by a contract what exactly are they going to agree upon with each other?
Chevrons Tahiti Project Delayed Over Faulty Moorings. Read about the delay here. Technip (TKP) designed and manufactured the moorings and tests were ordered after metallurgical defects were found at another similar installation. Bears watching.

Canadian Oil Pipeline Offline Due To Weather. Enbridge said it's Line 4 730,000 Bopd which carries oil from Alberta to Wisconsin was without power last Friday through Tuesday after a string of Tornado ripped through Manitoba.  Although the company didn't specify just how much volumes were reduced on a pipeline of that size you can bet that means somewhere around 1.5 to 2.0 million barrels won't be around for next Wednesday's oil report. Enbridge said they can make the volumes up in July.


69 Responses to “Friday Wrap – It’s Great To Back But TGIF!”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Desperate early crowd rally to get oil up over $70 has gasoline up $0.025. If it pops the refiners early I may take on a little more FTO / TSO but am cautious of all the hype CNBC is going to throw on Holiday demand.

    If you look at holiday travel where the 4th is centered on a Wednesday, you don’t see the big demand that comes when it’s tied into a 4 day weekend.

  2. 2
    MMarkkk Says:

    Given that a lot of the “increase” in gas production comes from the Barnett in the Fort Worth area, I wonder how all the rain/flooding is going to impact the ability to continue to add wells? On one hand, the rain/flooding make it very difficult to move rigs from location to location and that will impact the number of wells drilled over the next month. On the other hand, the Barnett has historically struggled with getting water for the frac jobs. This will help tremendously.

    Don’t know how it will balance out. More than likely, a push but something to watch for.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    MMarkkk – Good points. It’ll be something to watch the 2Q calls for. Probably not investable from the option perspective but do you think it may have a medium term impact in improving clean up times?

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    SWN punted my 2x position at $2.05 on the early morning drop. 86% gain in 23 hours. Glad to be out of that. Hate to be short good companies even if they are so richly priced.

  5. 5
    MMarkkk Says:

    Just finished reading a report from Cambridge Energy titled “Diminishing Returns” on the North American natural gas supply situation. Bottom line: it shows that even at $8/MCF, North American nat gas will not be able to sustain today’s rates and it will decline starting in 2007. This ignores imports via LNG, which are going to be influenced by OPEC-like factors/control as well as competing markets. Prices low in Europe? lots of LNG moving to US (like now). Prices low in US? LNG moves to other markets, squeezing US supply and driving prices back up.

    CERA report shows that the average price needed for all of NA nat gas is $6.85/mcf to yield a before tax 10% return. Below that, you will see drilling curtailed. And that’s a volume weighted average. There’s about 35% of the supply that needs $8+ to return 10%. And there is 15% that needs greater than $10. That means there’s a lot of drilling that isn’t paying out and that isn’t sustainable.

    All of this confirms what we’ve been saying: prices may fall south of $6-6.50 for a while, but within a month (or maybe few months) supply will drop and prices will firm back up. The current strip is still showing prices north of $8 if you go out 12 months or so. Lots of short term trades to be made, but long term, US nat gas is going to provide good returns.

  6. 6
    Nicky Says:

    With July products going off the table today wondering whether they will spike that contract into the close. We normally see a huge move one way or another.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    THANK YOU M! Those guys do great work! It does confirm what we’ve been saying…weakness will be short-lived.

    I wonder about the European gas prices. I’m ashamed to admit that I’m not as familiar with their generating breakdown as I am with the US but do you know if a large % of their generation is nat gas? Prices have been exceedingly week there. Hot summer predictions make me think that won’t last but I don’t know if that impacts gas there that much. Nuclear and coal used to be the generation fuels of choice in the olde world.

    Similarly, demand for LNG from China is on the rise. While LNG import predictions call for strong growth this year and next those are EIA estimates which are often highly statistical/not real world.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Nicky – it’s absurd. Nine year high in stocks = $70 oil?! What will a 10 year high be, $80?

  9. 9
    MMarkkk Says:

    I’ll research Europe over the weekend. I do know that gas pipeline connections from the North Sea into Europe are very important as are the connections from Russia. Their winter this year was really mild and that drove the price collapse, so obviously some of their heating needs are supplied by NG. Don’t know as much about cooling.

    LNG is becoming a very interesting market. A lot of the big projects are being tied to supply and long term contracts but these require high prices and guarantees over many years, so they won’t be impacted by swing prices. But the LNG today definetly flows to the highest bidder, which is driving some of the swing players to try and lock in longer term contracts, again minimizing some of the future volatility. When you pay $4-6 billion for a LNG project that is going to payback over 10-20 years, you can’t afford to have price volatility.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Thanks M – hear ya highest bidder.

    Go EOG.

    Really glad I’m out of the SWN puts as it was off $1 at the open but quickly up $0.40.

    TSO having trouble holding onto a very low volume $1 gain this am. Watching.

  11. 11
    Larry H Says:

    something to think about as far as your comments on natgas storage levels. I think eventually we will stop having to look at storage levels on an absolute Bcf level. Natgas demand rises every year, so I think its probably more useful to look at storage as a % of likely demand rather than just say the absolute level is above or below a certain historical average or number. It becomes a meaningless data point when it is tied to a moving target. It needs to be kept in context with how it relates to growing demand. Just my thoughts…

  12. 12
    T-Tupp Says:

    happy Canada day weekend to me!! lol

  13. 13
    T-Tupp Says:

    who the hel is buying wnr at these prices!!!

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Larry H – something on the order of a days of supply measure?

    Tupp – how you liking the refiners now?

  15. 15
    T-Tupp Says:

    what do you mean?

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    ANR on fire again.

    CRZO downgrade had no impact

    WNR – that’s just insane. Ditto HOC and FTO.

  17. 17
    T-Tupp Says:

    btw, the gas report was misleading; did you see the build within the west coast (and huge build in mid-west?)

  18. 18
    T-Tupp Says:

    yea– never traded anyone but tso and vlo. in my opinion: tso is leaving this fun trading range, to become a downtrend, and vlo the jury is still out. money to be had in all situations!!!

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Tupp- I mean as far as puts go?

  20. 20
    T-Tupp Says:

    im gona wait to see if rbob fails at ~2330 ish . im less of a day trader than you, so i mean its not like you cant make money in the mean time, but im waiting for something for clearer signals…. but if i was going to start a shorter term trade from the am today i would have put on a call tso about an hour ago and reevaluated on monday wether or not to add…

  21. 21
    T-Tupp Says:

    then again i cant make a quick (qualtity) decision to save my life ! lol

  22. 22
    T-Tupp Says:

    also, TSO seems to be forming a delicious double top here, while breaking the right shoulder on the 50d EMA., thats why conversely, and to negate what i said above, i would be uneasy to be long here….

  23. 23
    Larry H Says:

    yes, something like days of supply might work,just something that accounts for the growth in demand. without that,, its like saying “there are 100,000 more uninsured Americans in 2006 than there were in 2005” ,, yeah, but how much did the population grow in that time? it might actually be an improvement,, it all depends on the %. by the way, natgas is surprisingly pretty stable after those storage numbers, i expect the E&Ps to be much weaker..strange market.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Larry H – I worked on that concept for a short time and while showing the absolute storage picture only gets you a part of the way there, demand and supply dating are sorely lagging as you know.

    I would also point out that while demand is often quoted as growing 1 to 2% per annum the numbers don’t bear that out. Granted you’ve had 10 of the hottest years in the last 150 since 1990 but demand appears to me to be pretty flat with 1994 levels (I think). I’ll go back and check those numbers to be sure but you can see what I wrote about on the macro page here last October:


  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Delicious Double Top – We could create a wiki page for that! I think gasoline is forming a DDT right now and TSO is marking it tick for tick!

    Ouch – that “less of a day trader than you are” comment stung. Me no damn day trader! 😉

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Nicky despite the run in crude we’re a lot closer to your $2.10 mark than your $2.45 upper limit. Still think it’s all just noise in between? Say until we get the next report which comes out next Thursday. Gas #s come out next Friday.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Roy Kass, an old hand at the EIA, is retiring. He ran the natural gas division there for countless years and his insight into the gas markets and his steadfast conviction to providing quality data will be sorely missed. People may joke about civil servants and commitment but it doesn’t apply to him. I’ll miss you Roy.

  28. 28
    Eric C Says:

    Hello All,

    I am new to the site but just wanted to say thanks to Zman and the rest of you guys for all the great info and insights. If you guys follow the shippers (ie. TK and DRYS) check out a new web site – http://www.capitallinkshipping.com

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Thanks Eric – We do and will do!

  30. 30
    T-Tupp Says:

    DDT….. lucrative trading indicator, or cancerous 80’s pesticide??? wiki wiki wiki

  31. 31
    H Says:

    OT Question-

    Hey everyone,Im having a bad day, my PC is acting nuts, For some reason when I use my mouse, all a sudden bunches of dialog boxs and things start to open , in a very hyper fasy way, like the start up bar, current window options, task manager, desktop properties and all….strange, anyone ever see this?

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    H – you have norton on that box? sounds like a virus.

  33. 33
    H Says:

    You know Z, I hate norton. and all virus! belive t or not I don’t run virus software, because it always limits my PC, – I never really had any at all virus in 10 years and always go to the same sites, no fooling on the net, am very careful..so what I do about 2-3 times a year I install norton for a few days do full system checks then uninstall it again…I gonna give it another chance today, …

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Epperson just said people are looking for refinery utilization to hit the mid 90s next week! Talk about setting a high bar for expectations!

  35. 35
    H Says:

    N+Z, What do you guys feel the major index’s will do between now and the close? TIA.

  36. 36
    H Says:

    I Mean Dow,S&P and Naz?

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    VLO up, FTO off slightly. Maybe valuation does matter?!

    Re indexes. No idea, probably go up. Lots of ups over in tech land.

    SU continues to soar on all the up oil talk. $2 a day…it’s good to be T Boone.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    H – did you ever get my email? No pressure of course but if you’re interested I can find a hot humid home for those PCs.

  39. 39
    H Says:

    How am i gonna get then their? I am very bad at shipping I was hoping you had an org in NYC so I could drop them their, ~

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    send me an email telling me exactly what you’ve got and I’ll check into sending you pre paid labels.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    TSO up $0.50 and holding. Stock volumes are anemic. Prices stuck in neutral

    I have hunch Nicky is right that we get another crude push before the close.

  42. 42
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Assuming Ms.N & U are correct, what would be your best trades?

  43. 43
    zman Says:


    I still like the pair trade of short FTO, long VLO.

    SU but only with a tight stop and after a failure to break last week’s high on Monday and strong oil.

    Other than that it’s mostly longs but I’m pretty spent for the week and will revisit the list of the week. Maybe some comp graphs to go with the usual wrap.

    Then I’m for a pullback in OIH but a hold above 170: back into HAL at that point, maybe some of the deepwater drillers if they ever take a break. Also compression (NGS).

    Coal: looking for a weak day entry into BTU and maybe ANR

    Gassy stocks: you know the names. Still liking the PQ and HK here. SWN was a good trade and I’ll be looking to go long it and CHK, KWK, and CRK (if the spreads tighten). Keeping a close eye on APC and NFX.

    NFX is easily the bargain the of the group and the option volumes tell me there is still a speculative undercurrent around that likes that Noble rumor.

    Still holding the second half (first half of according to my broker) of my EOG 75 calls.

    Feel free to ask for clarification as that was pretty off the cuff.

  44. 44
    J Says:


    I hope you booked your gains already in FSLR. Some talk of creative accounting. I’m sure when your P/E is around 650, accounting issues can bring you down pretty quickly. Who knows though, the alt energy area is insane, almost dot-commish.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    There goes oil on cue. This is yet another bad day for cracks with oilo advancing $0.87 and gasoline up $0.006.

  46. 46
    redjack Says:

    a day or two ago, y’all were looking for map(s) showing sahara dust. Here is a website with satellite loops: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Thank You Redjack! The link has been added to the weather tab.

    So more dust = less hurricane activity right?

  48. 48
    H Says:


    I have too metion the stock has been soo strong along with the group for a few weeks now, more so of recently- THAT THEY ARE TRYING ANYTHING TO SCARE HOLDERS , ABSOULTY SAYING ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING…BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE MORE FORM WHAT YOU HEAR PLEASE TIA> H.

  49. 49
    redjack Says:

    correct on the dust effects. Also, from Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground (wunderground.com)”Wind shear decline expected……….
    The jet stream usually divides itself into two branches this time of year–a strong jet whose average position is near the U.S.-Canadian border (the polar jet), and a weaker branch whose average position is over the Gulf of Mexico (the subtropical jet). Both of these branches of the jet stream bring high upper level winds (and thus high wind shear) over the Atlantic Ocean. All of the computer models are forecasting that the subtropical jet will weaken substantially over the next ten days, bringing much lower than average wind shear to the tropical Atlantic. It is normal to see the subtropical jet weaken in the summer, but it usually happens a month later than this–in August. The expected early weakening of the subtropical jet should give us an above-average risk of a July tropical storm. I’ll have a full analysis of the possibilities on Monday, when I post my bi-monthly 2-week outlook.

    Jeff Masters”

  50. 50
    H Says:

    J- I’m seeing the story now that I’m back up- looks like its not substainated in anyway , just a rumor, this has been going on for days now, shorts will try anything–

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Thanks Redjack. I’m sure CNBC will be all over it by Monday!

    MCF just announced good results at Dutch #3

    Their 3rd party reserve engineers put all of Dutch’s 2P reserves at 125 Bcfe net to MCF. Proved only reserves are estimated to be 66 Bcfe.

    Remember these guys only had 34.2 Bcfe of 1P reserves at YE06. That’ll be “Best in Show” reserve replacement bar none for 2007.

    Combined production from the 3 Dutch wells is expected to be between 90 and 110 MMcfepd gross (26 to 32 net). Recall that they produced 20 MMcfepd for the entire company in the most recent quarter with only the Dutch #1 online and then only for part of the quarter.

    Contango also announced that one of the Fayetteville Shale wells is producing over 5.3 mmcfepd which is mega for a shale well.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    TSO flat; FTO down $0.66.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Somehow I don’t think he finds anything that you can remotely claim as bullish as very disturbing. Now he’s got the Russian’s taking oil from Santa Clause. That’s just low.

  54. 54
    MMarkkk Says:

    Just read a story from yesterday concerning the outrageous expected increase in milk prices by the end of the year. Looks like it may go to $5/gallon by EOY. I just paid $3. That’s outrageous. My congressmen should schedule hearings to investigate the outrageous windfall profits being stolen from us by BIG MILK. cut off their tax credits and subsidies and install a tax that only their industry has to pay. And repeal their ability to utilize the new manufacturing tax rates. WE need a new Milk Policy Act. Call the FTC in to investigate the price gouging.

    Sorry, tongue slipped to cheek there. Those of us in the oil and gas industry are just kind of tired of being whipping boys for all of the uniformed masses and their leaders in congress.

    Back to our regular programming. Summer Friday’s in the oil patch…kind of dragging.

  55. 55
    MMarkkk Says:

    N – on a fundamental basis, I agree. Terrorist attacks will curtail demand. However, the emotional and political reaction are what gives the oil markets a bit of a jump. Whenever something happens, there is some likelihood (real or perceived) that the act will be tied to a certain Middle East oil exporter who’s name starts with an “I”. That gives everyone the scare that exports will be restricted somehow someway. And that’s why oil jumps.

    Reality? don’t know. Reaction? usually.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    M – Milk’s running $4+ in Texas. If HC gets elected I’ll mortgage the house buying natural gas futures because their won’t be any CF left for CapEx. She actually said in a speech two months ago that she wanted to “take those record oil profits”. I had no idea I might get the chance to live in Venezuela until she said that!

    N – very good point. I agree with M that the initial reaction is up but that’s the headfake. Flynn is high on gasoline fumes.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    M – you ever bump into those MCF guys. Everything’s outsourced (they have 7 employees) but man are they into a pile of reserves now. They also get the “most original presentation by an E&P company” with their Alice in Wonderland theme. In a nutshell: look for gas, find gas, sell gas, don’t hedge gas, look for more gas etc, etc. Biggest % bump in reserves and production you’ll see among the E&Ps this year. Must be nice not to have your scale sometimes. Probably a bugger on the cost side though.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    N – nice spike in gasoline right before the close. Was almost to flat and now I show it up nearly 4 cents!

    The stocks acted very favorably after the London Bombing.

  59. 59
    redjack Says:

    Nicky…more dust.

  60. 60
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Whats your reaction to the volume in WNR July 55 calls?

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    So we’re 2 strikes against and 1 for over the last two weeks:

    More dust = less storms
    No La Nina = less storms
    No windshear = more storms

    The pattern across the Atlantic to me looks like it does when storms form as it’s starting to take a more northerly track.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Scoop – could another rumor but I’d doubt its veracity. The FTC would be hard presses to justify a merger between TSO and WNR (which would make sense) just after the GI deal. Not the stock got out of hand earlier today almost tripping $60 but is closing up much less. Maybe they think tiny FTO is buying it given that it’s the only refiner getting at all hurt today.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    kind of a backdoor antidote. These guys don’t know how to do anything but bullish.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    NFX closed their buy of SGY’s Rockies assets. No one cares b/c it’s Friday but getting this out of the way and next, the sale of Bohai Bay and the North Sea will lead this stock higher.

  65. 65
    MMarkkk Says:

    Z – MCF is quite an interesting concept. Talk about diversification within one commodity line! For such a small company they have their finger in a bunch of pots. Heck, we have 7 employees just to make cool little presentations like theirs and 7 more to process corporate approvals of the presentations, and 7 more to make sure the 7 lawyers are happy, etc etc etc

    And I bet you those 7 employees are sharing in the wealth!

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    M – they haven’t gotten full credit for Dutch yet based on those numbers and they’ll have development at Mary Rose to boot and then there’s the shale and the LNG terminal piece. I don’t know how they manage it but so far so good.

    What shot the market?

  67. 67
    Sambone Says:

    I check the water temps and wind speeds here;


    It’s very warm (Bathtub) water. Great for storms. Once the shear goes lower, you watch the storms off of Africa.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Out for awhile. I’ll have the weekly wrap tonight or tomorrow and a minor gas piece on Sunday.

    Have a great weekend!


  69. 69
    SLM Says:

    I think that the big moves in energy going into the weekend had to do with the end of the quarter profit taking.

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