Wednesday – Oil Report Day

You Can't Be Serious Watch: The EIA reported that planned refining capacity additions in the U.S. fell by one-third versus year ago figures. By 2012 refiners now plan to add a total of 1 mm bpd of refining capacity. Refiners indicated uncertainty as to demand and higher costs were to blame for the curtailment of plans. Comment: I couldn't believe it either!

Yesterday Was Cyclone Hangover Day.

  • Gonu is headed directly for the Strait of Hormuz. Late last night Gonu had been downgraded to a Cat 1 storm but it's storm track was centrered on the Strait of Hormuz, the world's chief choke-point for oil with some 15 to 17 mm bopd traversing the two mile wide channel. Oil daily stated yesterday that up to 30 mm barrels or 2 days of shipments could be delayed. Here's an interesting read on the Strait.
  • Oman Watch: Oman shuttered 650,000 of its 750,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) capacity on June 5th as the storm approached.
  • UAE and Saudi Arabia stated their production is unlikely to be effected. Fun fact: in February Saudi Arabia produced 8.6 million bopd while the UAE produced 2,600 million bopd. Combined they accounted for 36% of OPEC's output. And they're not going to be shutting down production for Gonu.

PSW /ZEB Radio Watch: 

Oil Report - Expectations from the a variety of surveys:

  • Crude: up 125,000 to 500,000 barrels. Imports fell by 600,000 bopd last week. That's the difference between the 2 million barrel draw we got and a 2 million build we could have gotten. Given the recent spate of tanker leasings in the Gulf of Mexico it's pretty hard to tell if imports will fully recover or if we're beginning to see a siphoning effect as the estimate 19 mm barrels of tanker capacity on lease is filled.
  • Gasoline: up 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels. This would mark the 5th consecutive week of rising gasoline inventories and the upper end of this range, if achieved, would actually shrink the YoY deficit. RBOB prices continue to look toppy to me.


  • What to look for in today's report:
  • Utilization: 91.5% to 92%. Anything below 91% and the bulls will own the week. Looking at the nightly EIA reports look for higher capacity levels as several facilities announced that they are in the process of coming back on line.
  • Production:  9.2 to 9.4 million bpd. Despite how low the stock situation is production has been cranking and last week's production of 9.258 mm bpd set the record for that week in history.
    • Imports. Last week saw imports reach their third highest level ever. We need more of the same and given the recent backlog of tankers along the Gulf Coast flocking to get the highest prices in the country a 1.5+ mm number is likely.
    • Demand: The real wild card. Demand has been averaging  9.4 mm bpd in recent weeks, or about 1.4% over year ago levels. While it may seem counterintuitive, demand generally falls off for the week including the Memorial Day Weekend. Maybe most people fill up during the preceding week but in the last five years only two saw demand rise during this week.


    • Distillate: up 0.8 to 1.0 million barrels. Distillate prices have been unusually strong of late despite inventories that are well above seasonal norms.

    Odds & Ends 

    (END) Update: This one is starting to show some signs of life in front of their exploration target at Balgownie which should be at TD before mid June. This is an expanded version of a piece I ran Friday but I think it's worth repeating.

    • Late last week, the Enoch development (between the North and Norway Seas) came online at 1,000 bopd net to END.
    • Recall that they produced just over 10,100 boepd in 1Q07, they added a Norweigian well in early 2Q07 and even with declines (which aren’t occuring everywhere as fast as expected) they just added 1,000 bopd to the mix but 2007 guidance remains around 8,800-9,200. Talk about under promise and over deliver.
    • Stated another way, they would have to be suffering 15% declines per quarter to get to the middle of their guidance. They're not.
    • The test at Balgownie should be at TD in the next two weeks. Balgownie is a size target (57 mm BOE unrisked reserve potential with upside). Management puts a 1 in 3 chance of success on it. It's a big deal to END because they have 45% of it and their proved reserves stood at 10 mm BOE at year end 2006 (29 mm BOE on a 3P basis). This is exploration and no reason to buy a stock. One in three is pretty good but the safer route is to take an opening position and reaccess after the well is announced.
    • Balgownie Risk / Reward. I think your risk is a decline to $1.75 on a miss with reward of a move to $2.50 with success. Just based on the reserve potential alone it would go higher than $2.50 in the event of success as the analyst community wakes up but I don't want to hype this as it's still likely to fail. That's why they call it exploration. So if you take a little I'd have stops in place.
    • Finally, people have recently asked me two other questions:
      • 1) What's up with that falling chart? $5 to $2 over a period of 22 months! In a nutshell, the company wanted to get a jump on it's life as a North Sea player. They paid what many thought was too much for legacy producing assets taking on what seemed like an unwieldy amount of debt. But at that time they laid in a series of very attractive oil and natural gas hedges and since then they have experienced much better than expected field performance from several key assets in the purchase. They are now paying down debt and going about their business exploiting opportunities in and around these assets.
      • 2) Why did the CFO abandon ship? The CFO resigned to join up with Dan Pickering’s new bank and work with an old Goldman buddy. Career change and I'm sure the pay didn't hurt. Investors seem to understand his choice and the company has since promoted two old Ocean Energy hands (where much of END comes from) to senior accounting positions.
    • This is a little $2 stock with $100 talent in both management and science sitting on a what could be the beginnings of the next big thing in the North Sea. In the near term, they're very likely going to be forced to raise production guidance, possibly  with their 2Q report, and a they'll take a shot at a number of promising exploratory tests in the remainder of the year, aside from Balgownie.

    Analyst Watch:  I'll add in comments.

    Glad To See It Go Watch. Honda discontinues production of the Accord Hybrid sedan. Disappointing sales because while it was a clean burning vehicle it got pretty average mileage at 28 mpg. I'm glad to see consumers opting for clean burning AND better fuel efficiency. That tells me that $3 gas is bothering people more than many would have you think with their $5 and $8 per gallon estimates of what it will take to alter consumers' driving habits.

    Holdings Watch:

    • Calls: (APC) August $50 calls sold for $3.60 (71% gain). I'd probably have rolled these to July on this weakness except for my trip.
    • Puts: No action.
    • Stocks: No action.

    106 Responses to “Wednesday – Oil Report Day”

    1. 1
      Kevin Says:

      I don’t know Z,..that END chart looks like utter crapola. It looks like a true gamble. Definitely use that 1.75 stop since 1.79 is the 52 week low. You just never know ehat could happen. Volume traded will be a sure hint leading up to the exploration results. Good luck all who take on this “ENDEAVOUR”.

    2. 2
      yolanda m.holtzee Says:

      Zman, you have to be “the Zman” from way back when.

      Nice blogsite, Zman.

      YMH (no longer a “Bear” Cub)

    3. 3
      zman Says:

      NE says they are seeing some N American land rig weakness, as expected, but he says it’s not as bad as the sellside has been predicting and expects improvement a couple of quarters out.

    4. 4
      zman Says:

      China makes gas hydrate breakthrough. Details to follow. If we find a way to extract gas hydrates from the sea floor in places like the deepwater GOM it would fundamentally change S/D picture for natural gas virtually obviating the need for imports. We’re talking massive amounts of crystallized hydrocarbons.

    5. 5
      zman Says:

      …of course we’re talking years and years and only if the Chinese are open with the details. or we steal it.

    6. 6
      sane Says:

      What I just read that they were able to collect a sample. The US and a couple of others have been able to do that.

      “China succeeded in collecting samples of combustible ice from the northern part of the South China Sea, making China the fourth country in the world after the United States, Japan and India to succeed in this field.”

      This is a good thing that more countries are getting interested in this. The amount of methane hydrate out there is mind blowing.


    7. 7
      zman Says:

      Sane – yeah I know but the article I read called it a breakthrough. Collecting a sample wouldn’t be considered a breakthrough…unless they mean b/c it’s the first time the Chinese have done that. That would be pretty lame of the reporter.

    8. 8
      sane Says:

      I think it meant breakthrough as in first time for Chinese.

      Peoples Daily ( Chinese Paper )

    9. 9
      zman Says:

      Refining investors showing a little fear this morning. 5th consecutive gasoline build, 0.5% increase in utilization expected, lots of profits to protect…

    10. 10
      zman Says:

      Crack spread page updated for 6/2 data. All regions bent lower.

    11. 11
      Kevin Says:

      Yeah Z,…refiners taking a hit. Anticipating some bearish numbers I suspect. The proof will be in the pudding.

    12. 12
      T-Tupp Says:

      monrnin all

      z- i agree about the refiners. a small doorway with many to exit. it looks to me vlo is making a double top! most indicators are starting to point bearish….. never thought id say this, but once it breaks the right neckline and trend line on significant vol. i might have to start trading this sucker from the short side….. we’ll see hwat happens at 10:31 lol.

      btw the live radiocast is the coolest addition to the site yet!

    13. 13
      Kevin Says:

      I’ve got some AAPL and I think it’ll continue to go up through that cyclone in the middle east. Morgan Stanley just wants some cheap shares,..LOL!

    14. 14
      Kevin Says:

      Refiners turning up a bit. Resistance 75.50 on VLO.

    15. 15
      zman Says:

      Nicky – hear ya “do the opposite”. That’s why we always wait out the initial head fake to try to determine direction. Last week would have been lower on price I think were it not for Barry, then Gonu.

      T – thanks – fyi, you might need to go to site early to download a plug in to listen.

      K – re END – it’s definitely a gamble in front of the big well but I continue to like them long term and I don’t see how they don’t increase production guidance regardless. Still, if you get in before the well and they miss…it gets whacked.

    16. 16
      Kevin Says:

      Gotcha Nicky. Good point.

    17. 17
      scoop Says:

      Z- any opinion on JRCC= James River Coal Co.

    18. 18
      zman Says:

      scoop – none in particular. in general I like the coals with a strong n gas market and the expectation of a hotter/stormier than normal summer ahead of us. That said, many of them have had a good run. Ask me again in an hour.

    19. 19
      T-Tupp Says:

      kevin there is no resistance in vlo except 76.20 & 77.20, what chart are you looking at?

    20. 20
      Marie Says:

      Z -Nice listening to you and Phil


    21. 21
      cowboy Says:

      Z – I have TSO 60 Puts.

      Is this a time to let it ride or take the usual 50% profits into the excitement ?.

    22. 22
      Kevin Says:

      Great job Z-mann Loved the commentary. Also LOVED that Gasoline mnumber,..yee haw! Demand IS slowing, at least for now. Wonder how CNBC will spin it, they’ve got some institutional friends to save,..LOL!

    23. 23
      Stephen Says:

      Nicky I enjoy your comments on absolutely everything.

    24. 24
      Kevin Says:

      T-tup,..I was talking about nearest R on the VLO chart at the time. 75.50 was the last support broken through which (as you know)becomes new Resistance. Doesn’t matter now though. Huge Gas number, wow!

    25. 25
      zman Says:


      Wow 3.5 mm bls with lower imports and lower production. who says $3 gas doesn’t curb consumer behavior?

      And the EIA says demand was UP week to week. WTF???

    26. 26
      T-Tupp Says:

      took 250 tso july 60’s, will add tomorrow….. never thought iyoud see me buying those did you z?

    27. 27
      zman Says:

      Tupp – that doesn’t seem like you, no.

      Just watched the replay. John Kilduff at Mann spun it as bullish based on the utilization. Wow.

    28. 28
      zman Says:

      serious head scratcher numbers.

      5% off sale on TSO…wow
      MRO down nearly $3

    29. 29
      Kevin Says:

      Oh yeah,..I saw that,..where do they faind them? A good reporter would have asked him,..”Gee,..if that utilization number is down to 89.6% then why is the gasoline number up so high?”

    30. 30
      zman Says:

      Kilduff/Flynn. One man, two masks? You be the judge!

      I needed another five to ten on that show.

    31. 31
      Kevin Says:

      “All boats will sink, eventually” right Z?

    32. 32
      sane Says:

      The American Petroleum Institute reported a fall of 5.7 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended June 1. The Energy Department had reported a climb of 100,000 barrels. Motor gasoline supplies were up 7.2 million barrels, the API said. The government reported a rise of 3.5 million. Distillate supplies climbed 3.5 million barrels, the API said. The government posted a 1.9 million-barrel rise.

    33. 33
      zman Says:

      GOOG: Last I saw he was selling calls. Anyone who knows better please correct me.

    34. 34
      Kevin Says:

      I think I heard that he was interested in the 510 puts to insure his long position in the stock. I think that’s what I heard him say. (excuse me for answering)

    35. 35
      sane Says:

      Still fillin the SPR


    36. 36
      zman Says:

      Cowboy – just saw your TSO question. I’m riding it out for now. The stock is defending $60 but it could leg down if it breaks that as all the lemmings who bought for the split (which makes no sense but people play that game) run for their lives!

    37. 37
      zman Says:

      Sane – Guess somebody told them that it won’t effect gas prices.

      Man, they’re trying to rally oil. Is there another storm somewhere?

    38. 38
      zman Says:

      No.no.no! That’s in my IRA from the early days!

    39. 39
      zman Says:

      This mini-rally is probably a good entry on the refining puts if you weren’t in – or – they could try to rally it more on the utilization number. Just looking at announced outages I’m: 1) shocked it fell off the far and 2) sure it will be north of 90% next week unless of course the EIA’s numbers are just for crap.

    40. 40
      zman Says:

      That big build in gasoline shrank the YoY storage deficit from 5.4% to 4.2%. Bullish, I think not!

      Lot of red out there.

    41. 41
      Popeye Says:

      Wow, bounce in crude.

    42. 42
      scoop Says:

      Z What cycle would you suggest for refiner puts.
      I usually buy six months out but not sure its worth current premium. Your comments are greatly appreciated.

    43. 43
      zman Says:

      Nicky – On the 1.9 mm bbs increase in distillates did you see that HO was flat and it was ALL diesel? Hasn’t that been the excuse/reason for the high price, that diesel demand was just bonkers? What’s a live quote on distillate if you please?

    44. 44
      zman Says:

      Scoop, I’m pretty torn at the moment. This looks like topping action to me but they seem more interested in the impact of what will soon be a tropical storm in the Gulf of Oman than in the fundies. Could kick you in the teeth. Definitely not Junes, maybe September and I’d stay away from a short of VLO and opt for some of the smaller names who will trade closer to declining cracks: FTO for instance. HOC is too tough to trade. WNR ~ maybe.

      TSO. That’s a meat grinder of a short and while I’ve got it on it’s tiny to me (especially since it’s down like 70%).

      SUN- good run probably due a timeout!

      In general I’d say look hard at the August or later contracts.

    45. 45
      H Says:

      Zman nice show today,

      Nicky, Sorry to have to ask this now but I had to be away, whats rbob,HO and oil doing, and what you breakdown looking like, is their a bounce off today’s lows, ? dose it look like its being pumped up again on the lower production, imports and capticy numbers, that was some gas build, considering-TIA>

    46. 46
      scoop Says:

      Thaks for the info. Managed to sell my VLO $72.50 @ my cost of .75. Still holding MRO june 120P.

    47. 47
      Popeye Says:

      Crude above 66, unreal.

    48. 48
      zman Says:

      Kilduff was bearish on gasoline but bullish on crude. I agree with that. I may not be clear enough on the point but I think increased demand from refineries as they ramp up (well, someday) and higher prices overseas (the result of purportedly lower OEDC inventories) will support US crude prices.

      Gasoline is just overdone and needs to fall.

      As to distillate I can’t believe they’re pitching heating oil worries in early June with inventories brimming like they are.

    49. 49
      zman Says:

      N – yes. CNBC said traders are worried that all the focus on producing gasoline could cause a problem for heating oil stocks…that when we should start building them we won’t be b/c we’re on the gasoline train. As I understand refineries, it’s not a switch that you flip and suddenly you’re making only gasoline or heating oil. It’s a process of ratcheting production one up and the other down. The swing isn’t generally that big with maybe going from 45% dist/55% gaso and vice versa depending on the season. Someone feel free to correct me if you have better, generalized information than that.

    50. 50
      zman Says:

      END, CRZO, and SLB only stocks I see up in the complex.

    51. 51
      T-Tupp Says:

      z- what do you think of the E&P Nexen?

    52. 52
      H Says:

      Nicky, Thank you and as far as you wondering if they are worried about Jan,feb and Mar in JUn -YES!!! and they been worrying since winter was ending, but rest asured not before that!

      and the HO run is because worries of rboc needed attention first since pre driving season production

    53. 53
      H Says:

      I’m just gettin a hold here today, lots going on..I can just imagine if this report showed a rise in capticy and production/imports above and beoynd, but hey , all those idle employees are good for sitting around while nothing gets shipped, while nothing gets used in the refiners…so I say they did this to keep it flowing…

    54. 54
      zman Says:

      NXY? Good explorer. Got a bit of oil sand but frankly, I haven’t looked at them in a while. Anything interesting going on?

    55. 55
      T-Tupp Says:

      z- yea check out the bmo stuff on them. search their ticker, or the weekly O&G or weekly E&P reports– they mentioned them in last fridays O&G, but look at the fundies on it, like forward PE compared to peers and resource base & P Probables… i like the chart too… considering somthing in a long NXY after this dip is complete..

    56. 56
      zman Says:

      SPX, what is that you speak of? The broader market? lol.

      Wow, look at USO go. Refiners really not taking the bait.

      Don’t see any change in Gonu’s direction. What’s up with the big pump? Rain clouds over the Yucatan?

    57. 57
      zman Says:

      Thank T – will do tonight. Did you see I updated the cracks through 6/2. Second week of unilaterally down cracks.

    58. 58
      zman Says:

      tankers getting mauled today including TK. I’m mulling a FRO call for a quick trade as it’s down 5%.

    59. 59
      zman Says:

      Anybody here a natural gas consensus number for tomorrow?

    60. 60
      bill fraser Says:

      Is there a link to your radio replay. Can you believe it, i was away at 1030!
      TNP is a better value than TK for the longer term, imho, as its worth over 80 on a value basis.
      does crzo ever go down?

    61. 61
      zman Says:

      N – lol. I know but I only spend 5 minutes noticing what the rest of the world is doing! Refiners are stuck as is RBOB. No levels broken today, eh?

      BF – I’ll pass it along when I get it. Now I hear they want us on for the gas number tomorrow.

      Hear ya TNP, what about FRO?

    62. 62
      SLM Says:

      The bank I buy nat gas through is calling for a build of 127 for Natural Gas.

    63. 63
      zman Says:

      Whoa, seriously SLM. I’m looking for the build to fall back into double digit territory.

    64. 64
      sane Says:

      BP Exploration & Production Inc. on Wednesday announced a hydrocarbon discovery in an exploration well that tested its Isabela prospect in the Gulf of Mexico. The well is located on Mississippi Canyon Block 562 in about 6,500 feet of water, about 150 miles southeast of New Orleans, the company said. Isabela was drilled to a total depth of about 19,100 feet into Miocene era sands. The well is operated by BP with a 67% working interest and is co-owned by Noble Energy Inc. with a 33% working interest, BP said.

    65. 65
      sane Says:

      Hey z,

      The only estimate I saw for tomorrows number is 109 for nat.


    66. 66
      SLM Says:

      I think 127 is high, I’ve been hearing 105-115 though.

    67. 67
      zman Says:

      Thanks guys. I think 110 would be high given weather and imports.

    68. 68
      Another Phil Says:

      Crude getting a boost from this ‘Turkish invasion’ news?

    69. 69
      zman Says:

      AP – that’s bad. Heard we warned them not to do that a couple of days ago. That’s definitely in the mix. Thanks.

    70. 70
      zman Says:

      Nicky –

      nice call yesterday re your index concerns!

    71. 71
      H Says:

      I don’t think OIH will get much of a bounce off turkey, I think it has too much . lets say hot money in their now, and I think we see more selling the nest two days , the 160 puts are intresting, but to far gone for me in the JUNS…I am just sitting on the side lines this minute.

    72. 72
      H Says:

      In fact as I can see SLB and RIG will sell down as the day unfolds and we will have OIH selling off By EOD, way under 170-

    73. 73
      zman Says:

      H – I’d add that it’s going to key off n gas tomorrow. If people are really expecting a build in the 110ish range AND they were to get one closer to my number (sub 100) it would be very bullish for the gassy E&Ps and OIH. I’d like to know what they think is going to get numbers that high, maybe I’m way off base but if so I haven’t figured it out yet.

    74. 74
      H Says:


    75. 75
      H Says:


    76. 76
      zman Says:

      CRK and CRZO up. END flat. Everything else down.

    77. 77
      zman Says:

      TSO shooting for a $60 test again.

    78. 78
      H Says:


    79. 79
      zman Says:

      Nicky – do you show a quick drop to $2.10 on RBOB today? Do you generally ignore those kind of blips when looking at your charts?

    80. 80
      MMarkkk Says:

      guess it might be a good time (next 2 weeks) to be out in the mountains and not worrying about all of this!!!

      I’ve liquidated a large percentage of my equities, kept several nat gas producers and a few E&P co’s. Long term, I like the majors but short term, everyone will suffer.

      Nicky’s post much earlier stating Morgan’s market direction is telling. There are guys in the H-town market advising private clients in much the same direction.

    81. 81
      zman Says:

      Thanks M – I’ve been doing much the same in preparation for a trip mid month. Good to see you around these parts!

    82. 82
      H Says:

      I smell more selling on your screens soon—windex won’t help–

    83. 83
      sane Says:

      Funny taking about this. My father calls me about an hour ago, telling me about what his guy from MS was saying. One word sell. I personally have been out of the short term for the last couple of months d/t my jitteriness.


    84. 84
      H Says:

      37 minutes and counting….looks like 200 gonna be easy on the dow today, and OIH will go lower..soon–the sellers have their fingers on the buttons, they have to use all them fingers cause theirs so many bottons ..

    85. 85
      zman Says:

      PQ is a monster in this market. Flat? Not bad for a day like today. The fact that they absorbed a big dry well speaks legions about sentiment there.

    86. 86
      H Says:

      Nicky …Do you have any TA on OIX chart? I would be intrested in your analysis! TIA.

    87. 87
      H Says:

      whys slb green, a few pennies?

    88. 88
      Popeye Says:

      For my sake I hope you are right H but 170 seems to be holding.

    89. 89
      H Says:

      Yes , thank you,

    90. 90
      H Says:

      No wait a minute I did mean , the CBOE Oil Index. OIX,

    91. 91
      zman Says:

      TSO president acquires for $8.50 and punts for $64 116,000 shares acquired in an option exercise.

    92. 92
      H Says:


      Anyone have the time, and if its OK with the Z MAn, I would like to have a little contest ..

      Lets say the market dose correct –

      I would like everyone, to pick their best shorts…for lets say from tommorow till July 1– the stocks cannot be thinly,traded or low float.

    93. 93
      H Says:

      N- FUUFF has always amazed me, and psychology in trading/investing….the reason is the business book that OIH has-and the rising day rates-as you know. for 1 thing.we could go on and on, but the market will do that for us!

    94. 94
      cowboy Says:

      Z – do you think 14.30’ish is still a good entry point for PQ given that it’s held up so well ?.

    95. 95
      H Says:

      SO By the way, I don’t have cable as you may have seen me metion once or twicw before….so what the hell is cnbc saying and how are they spinning it ( engery )

    96. 96
      H Says:

      A lot of buying July 160/165 puts today, and almost no call buying on it-

      what’da you think? Z ? N ?

    97. 97
      H Says:

      Who Just turned on the lights ? and whay?

    98. 98
      zman Says:

      Cowboy, at this point I’d wait out the natural gas number tomorrow. If it turns out to be bullish you’ll have time to get in this name as it’ll react slower than the big caps. If it’s bearish, you won’t wanna be in anyway.

    99. 99
      rich Says:

      any thoughts on SE?

    100. 100
      zman Says:

      RBOB recovery pretty shocking. I read the EIA nightlies and I see more capacity coming up than going down.

    101. 101
      zman Says:

      Rich – that’s a great question. They’re getting knocked around a bit today with everything energy but they’re a storage and gathering company. I only know about them as such but it may be that they’re more of a rate sensitive play. The utilities, REITS etc all getting popped today.

      Very disappointed that TSO held $60 test twice.

    102. 102
      H Says:

      Zman , is it possiable to ask you to ask the board over the nest few days to pick their best shorts plays as a contest from tommorow till…July 1 or or somehwere in their? I think it would add some fun!

    103. 103
      zman Says:

      sure H

      gotta run kids, time to swim!

    104. 104
      bill fraser Says:

      on the market…buy on the dip 80 % invested

      well.. rbob crossed 2.20 on thursday am

      i’m neutral on ng coming into thursday but have sell orders from 8.14 on up

    105. 105
      Free Online Marketing Says:

      Free Online Marketing

    106. 106
      Donation or sponsorship Says:

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