21
May

Thursday Morning – BWEN

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Automakers are seeing sales start to rebound,
  • Automakers are also somewhat shakily restarting production with two facilities that just went back to work temporarily shuttered again due to Covid cases among the workforce (yesterday) and parts shortages are impacting production as well (today),
  • Tensions between the U.S. and China over Covid-19 continue to escalate,
  • In oil watching land, most eyes are on OPEC producers (for cheating) and in the U.S. for signs that higher prices will lead to more rapid than previously expected "de-curtailment).

Housekeeping Watch:  If you are not getting emails from us for trade announcements at the correct address please let us know at zman@zmansenergybrain.com. Thanks.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (much more benign looking report expected, all eyes on gasoline),
  • the natural gas preview (consensus has fallen towards our low injection expectation all week),
  • brief comments and a cheat sheet update for BWEN,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 2.35 mm, last read was 2.98 mm),
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (F = -40.0, last read was -56.6),
  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 4.2 mm for April, last month was 5.27 mm),
  • We get leading indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was - 6.7%),
  • Jerome Powell speaks at 2:30 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - BWEN
  5. Odds & Ends

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20
May

Wednesday Morning – TPIC, EQT

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • We've been pointing out that tank tops are still pretty far away, as the U.S. sits at 62% of working capacity.
  • Now SP Global Platts says “We now expect that we will stay below global tank tops . . . We will squeak by”.
  • Quiet day for economic data today, more tomorrow, then none on Friday.
  • All eyes on the early re-opening states ... so far so good although there may be some data issues in a couple of them. U.S. driving data shows a fairly rapid recovery is in progress.
  • Market took a breather yesterday as some question the efficacy of one vaccine makers news (although it did allow them to pop off a $1.3 B spot secondary).
  • U.S. / Iran tensions appear to be rising again.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview,
  • the natural gas inventory preview,
  • a quick cheat sheet on EQT,
  • comments and a cheat sheet update on TPIC with some wind macro comments as well,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Advance services at 10 am EST.
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - EQT, TPIC, SGRE (GCTAF)
  4. Odds & Ends

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19
May

Tuesday Morning – RRC, SWN

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Market Sentiment Watch: 

  • Time for a pause.
  • Quiet energy news day.
  • There is a story on retroactive rents on federal lands for wind and solar. 2 years of bills, total is about $50 mm for this year hitting < 100 projects in the U.S. sited on federal lands. Not the best timing, comes while oil and gas and nuclear are receiving deferrals due to Covid but was not entirely unexpected. This hits utilities like NextEra most and could if not reversed prompt cancellation of a small wedge of projects.  Note that while there are 1,000's of wind and solar projects in the U.S. the total installed to date is fairly small.
  • Biden noted yesterday if elected he would nix Keystone XL.  Frac likely to be a target next (again).

In today's post please find:

  • the early read on oil inventories (much more benign report expected),
  • the very early read on natural gas inventories (as expected forming up below last week's injection),
  • comments and a cheat sheet update for RRC,
  • comments and a cheat sheet update for SWN,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get housing starts at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.216 mm),
  • We get building permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.350 mm),
  • We get the weekly API report at 4:30 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  RRC, SWN
  4. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »


18
May

Monday Morning – The Week That Was, GPOR

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Much lighter week on the economic data front,
  • Much lighter week on the energy data reporting agency front,
  • Many market eyes are trained on middle America for directionality on Covid-19;
    • So far so good according to HHS (Texas data less encouraging),
    • China has been increasing lockdowns again,
    • Bloomberg reports however that China's oil demand is almost back to pre Covid levels.
    • Fed's Powell over the weekend said he sees steady economic recovery through second half of 2020 barring a second Covid-19 wave,
    • Moderna said this morning early data from its early stage human vaccine trial is encouraging with antibodies produced in all 45 recipients.
    • We note global flight data continues to slowly inch higher,
    • We expect to see further fairly sharp implied gasoline demand increases in the US near term,
  • We continue to note increased interest in the energy space in general from institutional, retail and media contacts who have been dormant for years.

In today's post please find:

  • The Week That Was,
  • The Five Things (fairly heavy retooling this week),
  • Comments and a cheat sheet update for GPOR,
  • and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the NAHB home builders index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 30),
  • We get the EIA Drilling Productivity Report at 12 pm EST today.  This report will show EIA's view on June for shales and we expect to see sharp declines in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, the Anadarko Basin, and the Eagle Ford.   Permian will be down, just not sure how down.

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Housing starts, building permits,
  • Wednesday - Advance services,
  • Thursday - Initial jobless claims, existing home sales, leading economic indicators,
  • Friday - no economic data release scheduled.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, GPOR
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


16
May

Wrap – Week Ended 05/15/20

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First down week for the portfolio in the last 7 as earnings season yawns to a close with no land mine reports stepped on this quarter:

  • Profit taking.

  • Oil continued to lift but much of this is prompt month pre expiry machinations with the end of this contract looking a lot different than last month's unique exit.

    • We say much not all because as detailed in Thursday's slide show the weekly out of EIA was better than expected including a draw at Cushing, a much larger than usual drop in L48 oil production as EIA tries to incorporate some curtailments, and another pop in what is otherwise a still very poor gasoline demand figure.  Please see Thursday's slide show for details.

    • and EIA and OPEC both reduced non OPEC production expectations while IEA went so far as to highlight an improving oil market balance

    • while Saudi said it would cut output a further 1 mm bopd and urged OPEC++ to make further cuts as well.

  • Equities (including hydrocarbon energy equities) looked a bit tired at week's open and are in need of some sideways action after the bounce.

  • We note the energy media highlighting a coming wave of BK's.  Three words:  Not our names.

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Free stuff so far this month:

On the site last week we updated a number of gassy player cheat sheets.

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The Trading Blotter is updated:

  • Only 3 trades this month so far,

    • 2 sells (BE up 102%, and part of AR up 125%)

    • and one add to an existing holding (PLUG)

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The ZEB positions page will be updated before the open on Monday.

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

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Response to question on TPIC last night under the TGIF post.

a) no doubt, Covid-19 is in the room and not leaving.
b) TPIC specifically – has seen Covid-19 work outages (Mexico, some Iowa), 2Q will see more downtime vs 1Q (this is known) and things are improving this month in Mexico where most of the downtime has been. Matamoros was less impacted, lines at Juarez were down and there has been less govt direction but that too is expected to be back soon.
c) We see PTC extension for another year as likely. Grassley and others is working on this. It is a logical extension and would be in line with a string of governmental timeline relaxations.
d) we have seen no cancellations, and only a few delays of wind projects.
e) during the down time, we have seen several spans of time where wind has eclipsed other sources of power in Europe and even Coal in the U.S.
f) it’s like wind and potentially solar see greater sentiment increase in the wake of Covid-19.
g) Wood-Mac estimates for onshore and offshore power have seen some adjustment near year but also reflect improvement over the medium term time frame.
h) back to TPIC again, the EV composite contract will be “unmasked” before YE20.

Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

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Have a good weekend,

Z

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