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Solid week last week with the ZLT up a bit over 7%.

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The Blotter is updated.

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

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Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• U.S. announces 50,000 cases in a day,
• California is rolling back most bar and restaurant openings for another 3 weeks; not great for gasoline demand when you look at Texas and Florida rollbacks but again the data will be telling over the next few weeks.
• Fauci highlight the Oxford vaccine project as being "ahead" overnight.
• As to the impact on the oil markets, we are still past the demand trough, Iraq's compliance issues are being addressed, international rig counts continue to fall, and storage of crude at sea is actually declining (ex China)
• For the first time in our history, the renewables/green names (largely wind but also fuel cells and a bit of solar) make up over just a hair over half of the portfolio. We're fine with that at this time.
• If we don't speak to you in the comments section please have a safe, happy, appropriately distanced, injury free, and patriotic 4th of July.
• Please see the Housekeeping Watch at the bottom of today's post.

In today's post please find:

• the oil inventory review (much more benign looking report expected, all eyes on gasoline),
• the natural gas preview,,
• VWDRY,
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get initial jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.4 mm, last read was 1.48 mm),
• We get Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.9 mm, last month was 2.51 mm),
• We get the unemployment rate at 8:30 am EST (F = -1.0%, last read was -1.0%),
• We get the trade deficit at 8:30 am EST (F = -$53.4 B, last month was -$49.4 B),
• We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = 9.7%, last read was -13.0%),
• We should get the Baker rig count report at 1 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h
3. Oil Inventory Review
4. Stuff We Care About Today - VWDRY
5. Odds & Ends
6. Gas Inventory Review

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• Caixin China PMI came in ahead of expectations the day after China official PMI did,
• All eyes on ADP and U.S. car sales today and NFP and the unemployment rate tomorrow.
• Covid-19 - new high case total yesterday. Market kind of watches this off and on. More rollbacks are likely soon in our view.
• API was bullish as weeklies go last night (likely highlights a bit better demand for gasoline ahead of the holiday and a further slump in crude imports).
• Please take a look at the PLUG link - interview reinforces a lot of items we've been highlighting of late.

Housekeeping Watch:  Summer holiday week doldrums.  A bored Z is like a bored cattle dog ... destined to get into trouble or fall asleep or watch things like 10 years of the sun (each second is a day) which is mesmerizing but probably not a good use of time,

In today's post please find:

• the oil inventory preview (Street expecting a benign set of numbers; API last night highlighted big draws on crude and gasoline and a decent sized build in distillates which continue to be a problem),
• the natural gas inventory preview,
• TPIC cheat (new upside targets included),
• BWEN cheat - note the Siemens Gamesa offshore comment here,
• PLUG - good interview,
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get ADP employment at 8:15 am EST (no forecast, last read was -276 mm),
• We get ISM manufacturing at 10 am EST (F = 50.6%, last read was 43.1%),
• We get construction spending at 10 am EST (F = 0.6%, last read was -2.9%),
• We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST,
• We get car sales over the course of the day (F = 13.0 mm, up from last month's annual expectation of 12.2 mm).
• We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
3. Stuff We Care About Today - A few wind comments, TPIC, BWEN, VWDRY, PLUG
4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• China June PMI came in at 50.9 vs 50.4 expected and 50.6 for May.
• Biden said he will roll back most Trump tax cuts (no surprise there).
• China also said it has discovered a swine flu (the G4 virus, in pigs but can cross to humans) that has pandemic potential.  This is not panic worthy. This stems from a 7 year study concluded in 2018 and the strain was found in pip populations off and on in a small sample size over the course the study.
• Many eyes on Thursday's NFP (more adds expected after May's surprise add and a decline in the unemployment rate) and then on to extending the long weekend.

Housekeeping Watch:  If you did not get the two trades we posted yesterday at the correct email address please let us know by contacting zman@zmansenergybrain.com

In today's post please find:

• the early read on oil inventories (much more benign weekly on tap),
• the very early read on natural gas inventories (much smaller injection expected this week on lower production and higher generation demand),
• gassy players update (prices have moved sharply in the last two weeks),
• fuel cell thoughts,
• and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get Case-Shiller home prices at 9:00 am EST (no forecast, last read was 4.4%),
• We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 32.3),
• We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST (F = 90.8, last read was 86.6).

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch - two trades yesterday.
2. Commodity Watch - peak storage projection (adjusted),
3. Stuff We Care About Today –  Gassy Players Update, Fuel Cell thoughts, VWDRY, BE
4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »

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Market Sentiment Watch:

• Short holiday week (generally low news flow),
• Covid-19 case rise is being closely watched by markets again.
• Some market talking heads are pointing to lower implied mortality rates and hopes for a vaccine and futures are green this morning despite a number of re-opening rollbacks in key demand states over the weekend.

In today's post please find:

• The Week That Was,
• The Five Things,
• and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

Ecodata Watch:

• We get pending home sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -21.8%)

The Week Ahead: 

• Tuesday - Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence,
• Wednesday - ADP employment, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, FOMC minutes, car sales,
• Thursday - Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, trade deficit, factory orders,
• Friday - July 4th.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch - production, gas fired generation graphs
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, Subscriber mailbag
5. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »