17
May

Tuesday Morning – One Last 1Q22 Earnings Surge

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In today's post please find:

  • the very early read on natural gas inventories,
  • comments on quarterly reports from:
    • SHLS,
    • HPK,
    • REE,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.8% headline, 1.5% ex autos),
  • We get industrial production at 9:15 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.9%),
  • We get capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (no forecast, last read was 78.3%),
  • We get the NAHB home index for May at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 77),
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – SHLS, HPK, REE, CHK
  4. Odds & Ends

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16
May

Monday Morning

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Housekeeping Watch  

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    • You can receive an email notification each time we post by entering your email address in the space at left. 

    In today's post please find:

    • The Week That Was,
    • The Five Things,
    • and some other odds and ends.

    In case you missed The Wrap.

    Eco Data Watch: 

    • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 24.6), 
    • We get the EIA Drilling Productivity Report around 1 pm EST.

    The Week Ahead: 

    • Tuesday - Retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, NAHB home builders' index, business inventories, 
    • Wednesday - Building permits, housing starts, Philly Fed, EIA Oil Inventories, 
    • Thursday - Jobless claims, existing home sales, EIA Natural Gas Storage,
    • Friday - Advance services report. 

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watch
    3. The Week That Was
    4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, VWDRY
    5. Odds & Ends

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    15
    May

    Wrap – Week Ended 05/13/22

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    Poor week last week with traditional energy deepening valuation discount largely due to flash crash type action on Monday. We see the names as far from discount current or strip pricing.

    Free Stuff Last Week:  None

    Holdings Watch:

    Other Stuff:

    • Look for the Gassy Players update in the Tuesday post.
    • Look for a Gassy Macro update later this week.

    Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

    Questions about the site may be addressed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

    Have a good weekend,

    Z

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    13
    May

    T.G.I.F.F.

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    Sentiment Watch:  Energy has traded in disconnected-from-commodity fashion for a couple of weeks now, with the move exacerbated by the flash crash style move on Monday. Prompt and strip oil and natural gas prices are at levels no upstream, oil service, or downstream analyst/investor dreamed of at the start of the year. Our names are paying down debt/buying back shares/paying record dividends while maintaining and in some cases growing output with far less capital than in prior cycles.  Meanwhile, valuations are anything but dreamy, trading at levels we'd expect were oil prices to be 50 to 60% of current levels with valuations for gassy names also suggesting something closer to $4.

    Housekeeping Watch:  Are we using the correct email for you?  If you're not getting ZBLAST's or are getting them at the wrong address contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com

    In today's post please find:

    • the natural gas review (+76 Bcf, in line with our expectation of a similarly sized sequential injection and slightly below Street; next week look for 85 to 95 Bcf type build),
    • a SWN cheat sheet update,
    • and some other odds and ends.

    Ecodata Watch:

    • We get import prices at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.6%, last read was 2.6%),
    • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 64.1, last read 65.2)

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watc​h
    3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
    4. Stuff We Care About Today - SWN, PFHC
    5. Odds & Ends

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    12
    May

    Thursday Morning – RRC, SND, PFHC

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    In today's post please find:

    • the oil inventory review (positive side of neutral type report despite the first of the mammoth SPR releases),
    • the natural gas preview (in line with last week),
    • comments and a cheat sheet update for RRC,
    • comments on the SND quarter (solid),
    • PFHC (frac co) IPO thoughts,
    • and some other odds and ends. 

    Ecodata Watch:

    • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 194,000, last read was 200,000),
    • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.5%, last read was 1.4%),
    • We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watc​h
    3. Oil Inventory Review 
    4. Stuff We Care About Today - RRC, SND, PFHC
    5. Odds & Ends

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