20
Jan

T.G.I.F.

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Housekeeping Watch:  Are we using the correct email for you?  If you're not getting ZBLAST's or are getting them at the wrong address contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com

In today's post please find:

  • the natural gas review (in line with our thoughts, slightly bigger than Street; next week look for a modestly larger pull),
  • the oil inventory review (another mixed bag but with demand set to turn higher near term),
  • comments on the SLB quarter,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Fed's Harker speaking at 9 am EST,
  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 3.95 mm, last read was 4.09 mm),
  • We get Fed's Waller speaking at 1 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch - see notes
  2. Commodity Watc​h - ST natural gas supply demand balance sheet, NGL prices,
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - SLB, 4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar
  6. Odds & Ends

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19
Jan

Thursday Morning – Dueling Inventory Reports + More WIOWIO+ the 4Q22 Calendar

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Housekeeping Watch:

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview,
  • the natural gas inventory preview,
  • WIOWIO Part 4,
  • brief comments on the CHK asset sale,
  • the first iteration of the 4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar (75 names - some owned, some just of interest ~ we will be on a majority of these calls),
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 215,000, last read was 205,000),
  • We get building permits at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.35 mm, last read was 1.35 mm),
  • We get housing starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.36 mm, last read was 1.43 mm),
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (F = -10.0, last read was -13.8),
  • We get speeches from Fed heads Collins, Brainard, Williams over the course of the morning.
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 11:00 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - WIOWIO Part 4, 4Q22 Energy Earnings Calendar, CHK, TPIC
  4. Odds & Ends

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18
Jan

Wednesday Morning – WIOWIO Part 3

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Housekeeping Watch:  If you sent us an email and didn't get a response back pretty much immediately it likely was routed to spam. We get A LOT of spam and sometimes miss those notifications. If you think this is the case text us using the contact number on the contact page.

In today's post please find:

  • the early read on natural gas inventories,
  • WIOWIO Part 3,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST 
    • Headline forecast = -1.0%, last month was -0.6%,
    • Ex vehicles forecast = -04%, last month was -0.2%,
  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.1%, last read was +0.3%),
  • We get industrial production at 9:15 am EST (F = -0.1%, last read was -0.2%),
  • We get capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 79.6%, last read was 79.7%),
  • We get the NAHB home builders' index at 10 am EST (F = 30, last read was 31),
  • We get business inventories at 10 am EST (F = 0.4%, flat with last month),
  • We get Beige Book at 2 pm EST. 
  • We get API Oil Inventories at 4:30 pm EST. 
  • We do not get the EIA oil inventory weekly update until tomorrow due to the holiday.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - 
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – WIOWIO Part 3
  4. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »


17
Jan

Tuesday Morning – Gassy Players Update(s)

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Housekeeping Watch  

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    In today's post please find:

    • The Week That Was,
    • Gassy Players Update - Dry Group and Wet Group
    • and some other odds and ends.

    In case you missed The Wrap

    Eco Data Watch: 

    • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (F = -7.0, last read was -11.2),
    • We get the first OPEC MOMR of the year this morning.
    • We get the EIA DPR around 12 pm EST. 

    The Week Ahead: 

    • Wednesday - Retail sales, PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, NAHB home builders' index, business inventories, Beige Book, 
    • Thursday - Jobless claims, building permits, housing starts, Philly Fed, EIA Natural Gas Storage, EIA Oil Inventories, 
    • Friday - Existing home sales.

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watch
    3. The Week That Was
    4. Stuff We Care About Today – Gassy Players Update (Dry and Wet Groups)
    5. Odds & Ends

    Click the link directly below this to ...

    Continue Reading »


    14
    Jan

    Wrap – Week Ended 01/13/23

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    The ZLT was up 14.4% on the week last week with no changes to the portfolio. Both oily and gassy upstream names rebounded on stronger oil pricing on the back of China hopes and increased odds of a lighter Fed hike in February as friendlier inflation data emerged. Our oil service segment moved smartly higher as well (maintenance budgets in 2023 are not a bad thing for them). Lastly, our renewables wedges also performed better than we've seen in months as investors look ahead to 2022 headwinds shifting to 2023 tailwinds.

    Holdings Watch:

    Our high level per segment outlook for 4Q22 and 2023 was included in this post last week as part of a revamped 5 Things outlook.  4Q22 earnings season kicks off week after next and we'll have the first iteration of calendar of 70 plus owned and/or watched names next week.

    A few comments on The Wrap Table below:

    1. Oil 
      • Cracks have recovered sharply in recent weeks, largely on the back of under-stored distillates and the weather related two week hit to refiner throughput. We anticipate a slightly deeper maintenance trough in 1Q23 but for full year throughput to tie or slightly exceed 2022's levels.
      • We expect modest changes to the OPEC MOMR next Tuesday with minimal change to the Call on 2023 OPEC.
      • Look for exports to normalize higher with the coming week's EIA report. Look for net imports to remain near or just above 2022's often range bottom setting lows in 2023 as the SPR release wanes.
      • The US SPR release has wound down with released volumes in 2023 to likely to be nothing like they were in 2022 (we hear the recent Admin chatter and see the threat as hollow). With imports unlikely to flood US shores and domestic production growing only modestly we anticipate a move lower in US commercial stocks after 1Q23 as inventories lose the false support of the SPR.
      • Another chart of interest:  Note the 2023 dot.  Hard to see last week's big Winter Storm Elliot related monster build, eh?
    2. Natural Gas
      • Record build for time of year. This was, if not entirely expected, not materially off the small draw consensus was looking for.
      • Regardless, storage is in good shape as we start the year.
      • We have long held $5 as our price deck for 2023 and continue to. Please see our macro post on 1/4 here. 

    Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Tuesday post (markets are closed for MLK Monday).

    Questions about the site may be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

    Housekeeping Watch:  Our subscription prices will be adjusted for the last couple of years of inflation on Monday. Existing subscriptions will not be impacted. 

    Have a good weekend,

    Z

     

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