21
Sep

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Red open on tap with DC in focus as broad market futures and tech sink,
  • Covid related stimulus still uncertain and potentially more so with a supreme court battle on the way but there are still some positive signs a deal could be coming,
  • Lighter week on the traditional energy data front,
  • Please note the Price Deck Watch in the natural gas section,
  • TSLA batter day is tomorrow and the EV and battery sector will be erratic today and tomorrow.

In today's post please find:

  • The Week That Was,
  • The Five Things,
  • and some other odds and ends.

In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Chicago national activity index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.2).

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Existing home sales, API
  • Wednesday - Markit manufacturing and services, EIA oil inventories,
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, new home sales, EIA natural gas storage,
  • Friday - Durable goods.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – The Five Things, BLDP, NKLA, JKS, PLUG, MGY, BCEI, VWDRY
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


19
Sep

Wrap – Week Ended 09/18/20

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Holdings Watch:

Solid week for the ZLT with the portfolio up 6.1%.

We added to one of our wind positions last week.

The blotter is updated.

Notable:

Prompt gas has 10 days left in its contract, and fell 10% last week on milder weather, Sally demand impacts, and a bigger than expected storage draw.

LNG exports are jumping higher as Sabine is back from Laura and Cameron is about to start taking gas again as well. Asian LNG demand is ramping up again.

The Strip sees this and was off less than 2% last week and is up 15% since the end of July and vs year ago levels. There is no material change to our peak storage expectation for 2020.

Saudi addressed short sellers last week essentially saying don't bet against OPEC+'s resolve right now. So we have this going into that meeting.

Have a good weekend.

  • Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.
  • For questions about the site or to take the $10 Test Drive contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com


18
Sep

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Options expiry Friday. Yawn.  If you have questions we very likely have answers. Come see us in the comments section.

Housekeeping Watch:

  1. Please bookmark our back up site: www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com.  In the rare event our site goes down that one will be activated.
  2. If you reset your password please check your email's spam folder for it.  We get a notice every time someone resets a password ... they do go out, trust me.
    1. If you can't find it we're an email away at zman@zmansenergybrain.com ... we can reset it manually for you to something of your choice.
    2. Most email providers have a safe list function. Please put zmanalpha@gmail.com and zman@zmansenergybrain.com on your safe list.
  3. The site is fully searchable by using the pull down menu at upper left. From 2006 to present.
  4. If you click on the main logo of the site at the top of any page this will take you to the most recent post.
  5. If you can't find something please just ask in comments.
  6. Subscribers, if you would like to receive trade notices (ZBLASTs) please shoot us an email at zman@zmansenergybrain.com.
  7. There are no dumb questions here except for the one that doesn't get asked. If you want to keep it private you can email me at the address above. However the answer may be shown in comments if it's something that would be beneficial to the group. If your question isn't fully addressed always feel free to redirect.
  8. If you want your screen name changed please email us.
  9. Thanks very much, have a great weekend.

In today's post please find:

  • the natural gas review
    • much bigger than expected build on tricky demand weather,
    • look for a smaller build next week on the back of weaker production and much stronger LNG exports,
    • yes prompt got whacked but the strip is at $2.89 and barely budged.
  • revised comments and cheat sheet on BCEI with a new upside target,
  • VWDRY enters it's 82nd market.
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 75.9, last read was 74.1).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - BCEI, VWDRY
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


17
Sep

Thursday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Rates to stay low likely through 2023,
  • Airlines seeking addition U.S. support through March to avoid 4Q20 layoffs as demand remains sluggish,
  • Market eyes increasingly focused also on vaccine news and timing of potential delivery.
  • Hydrocarbon energy eyes focused:
    • OPEC+ virtual meeting of key players today - focus on compliance (as Iraq who is out of compliance signals it will continue to over produce), with the meeting coming in the face of forecast demand reductions for 2H20 and 2021 by OPEC and 2H20 for IEA earlier this week,
    • signs of better product demand from India,
    • lack of demand improvement in the States
    • and a potential pop up storm in the southeastern Gulf which appears likely to drift towards Texas.
  • Renewables continue to find traction / make new highs. Please see our positions page.

Housekeeping Watch:

  1. Please bookmark our back up site: www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com.  In the rare event our site goes down that one will be activated.
  2. If you reset your password please check your email's spam folder for it.
  3. Most email providers have a safe list function. Please put zmanalpha@gmail.com and zman@zmansenergybrain.com on your safe list.
  4. The site is searchable by using the pull down menu at upper left.
  5. If you click on the main logo of the site at the top of any page this will take you to the most recent post.
  6. If you can't find something please just ask in comments.
  7. Subscribers, if you would like to receive trade notices (ZBLASTs) please shoot us an email at zman@zmansenergybrain.com.
  8. There are no dumb questions here except for the one that doesn't get asked. If you want to keep it private you can email me at the address above. However the answer may be shown in comments if it's something that would be beneficial to the group. If your question isn't fully addressed always feel free to redirect.
  9. If you want your screen name changed please email us.
  10. Thanks.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (negative side of neutral as weeklies go),
  • the natural gas preview (our # is a touch higher than Street but no change to our thoughts of a 4 Tcf peak this fall),
  • quick requested comments on PVAC (unowned),
  • comments on a JKS INEOS hookup,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 870,000, last read was 884,000),
  • We get housing starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.52 mm, last read was 1.50 mm),
  • We get building permits at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.55 mm, last read was 1.50 mm),
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (F  = 13.0, last read was 17.2).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - PVAC,  JKS
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


16
Sep

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Market eyes on:
    • Powell's press conference,
    • Covid news as China and UAE are seeing some positive results from their Phase III trial,
    • and the OECD ups 2020 forecast from down 6% to down 4.5%.
  • Energy eyes on inventories and Sara who's impact is going to be around longer than previously expected.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory preview (easier comps and after the close API reported a much bigger than expected crude draw),
  • the natural gas inventory preview (the consensus build is edging up towards us now),
  • comments and a cheat sheet update on BCEI,
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get retails sales at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 0.9% vs 1.2% last month; ex autos F = 0.8% vs 1.9% last),
  • We get the NAHB homebuilders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last month was 78),
  • We get the EIA oil inventory report at 10:30 am EST.
  • We get the Fed announcement at 2 pm EST followed at 2:30 by the Powell press conference.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - BCEI, BLDP
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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