15
Feb

T.G.I.F.

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Z4 Sentiment Watch: Part of the sentiment problem for small and mid cap E&Ps is that the same general group of analysts covering them also cover their large cap peers making it pretty easy to be jaded about promises of cash flow neutrality a few quarters out and relatively smallish free cash generation. We get that and have been working to raise the bar of what we own, as always, just a little bit more this quarter, while expanding our horizons to wind and some new, bigger names our regular pond. Stay tuned.  In today's post please find the the natural gas review (smaller than expected, bigger number next week, no change to trough-peak outlook), comments on CLR, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the import price index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -1.0%),
  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 3.9%),
  • We get industrial production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.0%, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (F 78.7%, last read was 78.7%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CLR, next week's reporting names, 
  5. Odds & Ends

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14
Feb

Thursday Morning – Mini Earnings Avalanche

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Market Sentiment Watch: China data kicking the year off much better than expected with January exports rising 9.1% (a drop of 3.2% was the consensus forecast) while imports were only off 1.5% (a 10% drop was expected; though imports from the U.S. tanked 41%). In energyland, due to reserve reporting requirements, 4Q earnings are spread out over a longer than normal quarterly time frame. This leads to dearths and gluts of reports. Today we get a glut of names of interest reporting as noted below. Some of our comments may be more brief than usual. If something isn't clear, please ask and we will respond or track down an answer.  In today's post please find the oil inventory review (negative side of neutral as weeklies go), the natural gas preview (smaller number this week, then larger pulls into the back half of February; strip remains over sold), comments on a flood of names as noted below (pleased to see discipline actually materializing),  and some other odds and ends. 

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 225,000, last read was 234,000),
  • We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST (F = 0% headline and -0.1% ex autos vs 0.2% prior for each),
  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1% vs last read of -0.2%). 

In Today’s Post:

 

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - PXD, LPI, MRO, OII, AR, ECR
  5. Odds & Ends

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13
Feb

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the oil inventory preview (API was benign after the close), comments on the IEA weekly (maintained demand forecasts, increased non OPEC supply as did other agencies this week, highlighted crude quality issue), the natural gas inventory preview (small this week, then building in withdrawals size rest of month), comments and updated cheat sheet for CPE in the wake of 2019 guidance, brief comments on SPWR ahead of earnings, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1% headline, 0.2% core vs -0.1% and 0.2% last month respectively),
  • W get the federal budget at 2 pm EST (no forecast, last read ws -$23 B).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - CPE, SPWR, 4Q18 Week 5 calendar  
  4. Odds & Ends

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12
Feb

Tuesday Morning – VNOM, OPEC

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Market Sentiment Watch: Deal to prevent another shut down is in the works. In energyland, the OPEC Monthly was benign (slight negative on modest dip for forecast demand and modest bumps for Non OPEC supply but OPEC output is now much closer to the "Call on OPEC"). In today's post please find comments and an updated cheat sheet for VNOM with the multi case mini model, the early read on oil inventories, the early read on natural gas inventories, the OPEC monthly table, comments on CPE guidance, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • NFIB small business came in at 101.2 (fifth consecutive retreat) vs 104.4 last month,
  • We get job openings at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read 6.9 mm, noting a slight rollover here),
  • We get household credit at 11 am EST for 4Q18 (no forecast, last read was 4.3%),
  • We get the EIA STEO around 12 pm EST today. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – VNOM, CPE
  4. Odds & Ends

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11
Feb

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Shut down concerns back on market's mind along with China trade war concerns (this morning the White House is suggesting a deal might be closer than hinted at late last week).  In energyland the NOPEC effort will be center stage while earnings for the fourth quarter lull temporarily (until Thursday when are covered up). In today's post please find The Week That Was, an updated cheat sheet for VWDRY, this week's earnings calendar, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic releases scheduled. 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - NFIB small business, job openings, household credit, 
  • Wednesday - CPI, federal budget,
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, retail sales, PPI, 
  • Friday - Import price index, Empire State, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  VWDRY, 4Q18 Week 5, ECR
  5. Odds & Ends

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