09
Oct

Wednesday Morning – SM

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Market Sentiment Watch: China offering to buy more agricultural products and talks about accepting partial trade deal as their trade representatives prepare to get to work again tomorrow in the U.S.  In today's post please find the oil inventory preview (API was a widely varied mixed bag), comments on the EIA STEO (forecast for 2020 reduce as expect if not in the way expected), the early read on natural gas inventories (we expected a slightly smaller sequential injection, the Street is looking for a bigger drop), requested comments and a cheat sheet update for Permian / Eagle Ford player SM, and some other odds and ends. We get the OPEC Monthly tomorrow before the open. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get job openings at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 7.2 mm),
  • We get wholesale inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.2%),
  • Powell speaks today at 11 am EST,
  • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - SM
  4. Odds & Ends

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08
Oct

Tuesday Morning – HPR

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Market Sentiment Watch: China. Waiting for traction (although we made one addition yesterday) as markets await clarity on trade and demand forecasts. In today's post please find an updated cheat sheet and more in depth comments on HPR including a 2020 model update, the early read on oil inventories, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • NFIB came in at 101.8 vs a prior month's reading of 103.1,
  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1%, last read was 0.1%),
  • We get the latest EIA STEO around 12 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  HPR
  4. Odds & Ends

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07
Oct

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Quieter week on the economic data front after last week's poor number fest. In energyland we get the STEO (expect downward production forecast revisions) followed later in the week by the OPEC Monthly (potential for an upward revision to the Call on OPEC on a downward revision to non OPEC 2020 supply) and the IEA monthly (likely another downward revision in their read on global 2020 demand). In today's post please find rig count updates, The Week That Was, our week ahead, comments on an HPR update, and some other odds and ends. In case you missed The Wrap please click here.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get consumer credit at 3 pm EST (no forecast, last read was $24 B).

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - EIA STEO (expect downward revisions to U.S. oil and this time to U.S. natural gas production on the tumble in rig counts since last week, not to mention the drop in active frac spreads which are not part of the EIA model), the NFIB small business index, PPI,  
  • Wednesday - Job openings, wholesale inventories, FOMC minutes, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, CPI, OPEC Monthly, 
  • Friday - Import price index, consumer sentiment, IEA Monthly. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Our Week Ahead, HPR
  5. Odds & Ends

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06
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/4/19

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

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The Blotter is updated.

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04
Oct

Friday Morning – SPWR

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the the natural gas review (bigger than expected injection yesterday, flat to down a bit next week), comments and a cheat sheet on SPWR, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get nonfarm payrolls for September at 8:30 am EST (F = 147,000, last month was 130,000),
  • We get the unemployment rate at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.7%, flat with last month),
  • We get average hourly earnings at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 0.4%),
  • We get the foreign trade deficit at 8:30 am EST (F = -54.4 B, last read was -$54.0 B).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - SPWR
  5. Odds & Ends

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