01
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 11/30/18

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The Blotter is updated. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday Post. 

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30
Nov

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: G20. In today's post please find the the natural gas review (smaller than expected withdrawal but still deficit expanding; look for a similar sized withdrawal next week), the Gassy Players update, and some other odds and ends.   OPEC has their 175th regular meeting on December 6th to be followed by the OPEC+ meeting the next day.  For those keeping score wee anticipate a cut from current levels in excess of 1.4 mm bopd. Anything less will get a greenish shoulder shrug from markets and the contango will continue.  No cut will beget $55 Brent.   Seasonally OPEC needs to pull back on the throttle. From a 2019 standpoint, the "Call on OPEC" also highlights a need for less output from the group. A 1.5 to 2.0 mm bopd cut (from current high levels) should foster a bit of a goldilox landing in the upper $60s for Brent, sold return zone for most projects, and not too high as to put overmuch investment into U.S. capital budgets. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 58.4).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Gassy Players Update
  5. Odds & Ends

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29
Nov

Thursday Morning – OAS

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group sentiment poor. WTI traded as low as $49.41 overnight in a volatile session for Brent and WTI.  Every last eye is on the G20 and OPEC meetings with WTI down 23% in November alone and down 35% since the start of October (4 year high to a 1 year low in 2 months) and the market is acting like Russia (Putin will meet MBS at the G20) will not cooperate with OPEC to lower production. In today's post please find the oil inventory review (bigger than expected crude number due to SPR draw and pop in imports mask surging refiner demand - see oil inventory Review section below), the natural gas preview (smaller than prior week but still much bigger than normal for time of year), an updated cheat sheet for OAS (note the $60 deck run), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 220,000, last read was 224,000),
  • We get personal income at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.4%, last read was 0.2%),
  • We get consumer spending at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.5%, last read was 0.4%), 
  • We get core inflation at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 0.1%),
  • We get pending home sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.5%),
  • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - OAS
  5. Odds & Ends

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28
Nov

Wednesday Morning – MGY

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Market Sentiment Watch: Volatile energy markets expected this week and next. No incentive to step in to buy speculative names while stalwarts are making new lows. In today's post please find the oil inventory preview (benign report expected though we expect big bump in gasoline demand and move higher in refiner throughput), the natural gas inventory preview (another bigger than normal and year ago level withdrawal ... starting the season off in a price supportive stance and building on that early), an updated cheat sheet and comments for MGY (cheap on our sub Street deck and still quite the cash cow), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get 3Q18 GDP revision at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.6%, last read was 3.5%),
  • We get advance trade in goods at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -$76B),
  • We get new home sales at 10 am EST (F = 589,000; last read was 553,000).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - MGY
  4. Odds & Ends

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27
Nov

Tuesday Morning – Permian Players

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Market Sentiment Watch: Trade rhetoric in front of the G20 became more aggressive last night. Expect similar comments out of the White House for oil. We expect OPEC to act in accordance with fundamentals and not WH pressure when the tanker hits the sea. In today's post please find an update Permian Players Group 1 multiple page (with sensitivities for key names), the early reads on oil and natural gas inventories, comments on PES, FANG, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Case-Shiller home prices at 9 am EST,
  • We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 137.9). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  Permian Players Short Form Update, FANG, PES
  4. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »

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